Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Rusty Irving
Digital Twin Platform Leader & Chief Engineer
GE Global Research
13 June 2018
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Who is Rusty Irving?
Rusty Irving
➢ Education
BS – Computer Science with Math and Physics Concentration – Siena College 1985
MS – Computer Science & Engineering – Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 1988
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 7
GE’s Path to Digital Twin
2010s
“Remaining
System of
Useful Life”
Individual Assets
2000s Assets
“Prognostics”
1990s
“M&D Build Out”
2015+
1980s • Now answering the “Digital Twins”
“Break & Fix” • Now answering the question? “When will it
• Now answering many questions:
question? “What will break?”
“Can I run the asset hotter?”,
break?” • Examples: GE Power
“When should I Inspect?”, “When
• Systems still Reactive • Examples: Early OnLine CBM
should I replace?”
• Online centers built Warning Systems • Tech: Prior Methods,
• Enables What-If Scenarios, System
out across GE • Tech: Prior Methods, Deep Learning, Usage
Optimization
• CSA Cost Productivity Machine Learning, Based Lifing
• Examples: GE Power Efficiency
becomes business Statistical Optimizer, GE Aviation Analytics
• 1st M&D Systems model Based Maintenance
answer the • Tech: Mix of Neural • Tech: Prior Methods, Cloud
question? “What Networks, Case- Computing, Learning
Happened?” Based, & other
• Tech: Rule-Based
• Examples: GETS Physics and Data Physics Models with
Diesel Locomotive Rules
Diagnostics Based Models Learning Ecosystem 8
Digital Twin Defined and Explained
What is a Digital Twin?
Physical Asset Digital Twin
A Learning Digital Model 1 Per asset model
2 Business outcomes
5 Adaptable
Apps
Digital Twin Increases Productivity and Achieves Better Outcomes for Customers
5 Criteria for Analytic to be Digital Twin
Drives Business Outcomes • Revenue
• Cost
GE’s Digital Twin must drive demonstrable business value and outcomes
• Customer Experience
Per Asset/Process/Person
GE’s Digital twin is applied to individual assets, systems, process or person
Continuously Learns Σ
Asset
Data
GE’s Digital Twins continuously learn from new data to improve business outcomes Learning
Algorithm
Scalable
GE’s Digital Twins are scalable so as to be able to run millions of them
Run Millions of Twins
Adaptable
GE’s Digital Twins are adaptable to other parts or asset classes, new scenarios or factors
GE To Non-GE
Digital Twin Impact at GE:
Supportability of the GE
Installed Base of Industrial
Assets
The GE Installed Base of Industrial Assets
> 34,000 > 20,000 > 20,000 > 10,000 > 200,000
Units Units Units Units Units
15
Reducing the Frequency of Service
A Generic Industrial Asset Example
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 17
Aviation usage-based lifing
As designed
Lifing models
life consumption
high cost Remaining
parts
useful life
for high
SN1001
cost parts
• Parameters/sensors
• Configuration & history
• Operational environment
Unusual events
Prognostic
reasoners
adapted to Time to
SN 1001 failure
Parts Twins
Rotor failure prediction
Product Twins
Steam turbine life optimization
Process Twins
Field engineer scheduling
System Twins
Time Model based optimizer
Digital impact – total lifecycle
Services Transformation
Work Inspection New Service Service Design Work, Fleet & ILS
Optimization Optimization Creation Optimization Impact Planning
Factory
Manufacturing Factory Operations Supply Chain + Design for
Process Opt. Optimization Financial Opt. Manufacturing
Transformation
© 2017 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval. 20
Being Digital – Solving Problems,
Building Solutions
Digital Twin
Environmental
Conditions Digital Twin
Per Flight Data Physics + AI Models
Prior Condition
Harsh
environment
Nominal ABATE
environment
Cycles
Increased Availability to Customer
Saves Tens of $MM in Unnecessary Service Overhauls
Optimization Digital Twin – 6FA Turbine CC Plant
Key Technologies
Twins (gas turbines, bottoming cycle)
Learning
Optimizer
Automatic Labeling for part condition Deep Learning, physics knowledge & machine learning
to clean & impute the data (multiple strategies)
25
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Digital Twin Business Outcome: Improved Performance &
Reliability
Anomaly Detection Twin
Performance Digital Twin System
(Machine Learning + Physics Model)
Gas Turbine
Digital Twin
Forecasting
Adaptation
Machine Learning
Cumulative
Prioritize
Distress
inspections/maintenance and
proactively manage and
optimize fleet on per engine
basis
Saving tens of $MM in
unnecessary service overhauls
(per customer) Cumulative
Cycles
27
© 2018 General Electric. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Digital Twin – Value Creation Virtuous Cycle
Inspection Work Work Service Design New Service
Optimization Planning Optimization Optimization Impact Creation
Climb
$44MM CSA Pilot: Field CC plant Op.
Pilot: Proactive Temperature
$45MM Service Productivity on Service Optimization -
Bearing Failure now part of
Productivity Outage Engineer $1MM-$2MM
Avoidance GEnx S1B
Planning Productivity Fuel Saving
design
Performance
Inspection Digital Flight
Sensor
Capabilities Thread Matching Engine
Data
Algorithm Model
Flight
Data
Knowledge Extraction
Estimates
Model Management
Digital Twin Framework - Technologies
Driving Speed, Scale, Accuracy & Differentiation
Outcomes/ Inspection Failure Work Work Service Design New Service
Action Optimization Prevention Planning Optimization Optimization Improvements Creation
Industrial
4
Power Plant O&G Renewables Healthcare Recip Engine Aircraft
Blueprints &
Continuous Performance Schedule Dispatch
Templates KPI Monitoring Early Warning
Prediction Optimization Optimization Optimization
Machine
+ Physics Reliability Domain Text
Kernel
2
Motors Gearboxes Turbines MR Learning
1 Gold Data
Compressor Inverters
Heat
Exchangers
Ultrasound Image/Video
Analytics
Optimization Simulation
Catalog
Edge Runtime
(Edge, Inspection, Controls) (Cloud Foundry, Docker)
Digital Twin at Multiple Levels
Digital Twin
Reduced Order Models Higher-Complexity Models Offline, Thermodynamic, Part Life
Single Core Multi-Core Server/Cloud
mSec Minutes to Hours Hours to Days
Asset System Portfolio
Actuators
Sensors
33
Digital Twin Build, Run, & Manage Process
Build Integrate Publish Configure Deploy Run Monitor Learn
Runtime
Data EDA Analytic
(models,
f(x) analytics,
workflows, data
services)
Exhaust Vacuum
Training Data Power Predictions
Temp ExhaustVacuum AmbientPressure RelativeHumidity EnergyOutput Temp AmbientPressure RelativeHumidity ExhaustVacuum EnergyOutput_predicted
9.44 40 1015.62 81.16 471.32 Regression Model 23.25 1008.05 71.36 71.29 438.7847826
23.49 49.3 1003.35 77.96 442.76 13.87 1007.45 81.52 42.99 466.6762397
4.99 39.04 1020.45 78.89 472.52
• Lasso Regression 16.91 1013.32 79.87 43.96 462.0567857
18.24 58.46 1017.38 86.92 449.63 • R-squared 0.958 10.09 1012.99 72.59 37.14 475.563
27.49 63.78 1015.43 47.45 445.66 12.72 1013.45 86.16 40.6 471.8331579
13.61 41.16 1020.49 75.09 462.67
• Correlation 0.98 17.77 1020.11 81.51 52.9 456.9463333
Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) Output Prediction
Demonstration
Hot Intake Manifold Prognosis (EVO/FDL Locomotives)
(Modular Workflow)
GE Internal
Hot Manifold Prognosis: Objectives
Asset
Locomotives (models EVO & FDL)
Objective
• Develop a model to proactively predict road failures due to rise in manifold
air temperatures.
• Reduce the unscheduled outage & increase the availability to customers.
• Increase coverage of existing RX while ensuring an accuracy of ~90%.
Business Impact
• 55 mission failures EVO Tier 2 & 3 cooling system for year 2016
• 66 mission failures for 2015
• $15K average cost incurred by customer for each failure
Digital Twin Build for Detection
Turbo inlet temp
Actual Manifold
Air Temperature
Ambient air temp
Anomaly
Historical Gross_HP
Residuals Detectors
Locomotive (Rule-based)
operational Engine Speed
Build /
data
Validate
Turbo Speed
Twin
Predict Manifold
Model Manifold Air Temperature
Water Inlet Temp Air Temperature Anomalies
Preturbine Temp-1525
Preturbine Temp-1526
Locomotive Hot Manifold Anomaly Detection
Demonstration
Aircraft Engine Overhaul Level: A Classification Example
Asset
Aircraft Engine
Objective
Develop a model to predict the overhaul level: Light, Medium, Heavy
Business Impact
Keep overhaul Turn-Around-Time low by anticipating parts needed based on
recommended workscope level
Digital Twin Build for Overhaul Classification
Wear Level
Incoming Engine Parameters
Region Dust
Workscope
Inspections
Aircraft Build / Level
Engine Validate Recommendation
Water Washes
Data Lake Twin
Classifier
Remaining EGT
Predict Engine
Derate Deterioration