California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

August 2018
 Sales Declined for the 4th Consecutive Month
California, August 2018 Sales: 399,600 Units, -2.1% YTD, -6.6% YTY
700,000

600,000
Aug-17: Aug-18:
427,630 399,600
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales Continued to Decline
for the 4th Month
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Down Two of the Last Three
Months
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Southern California Home Sales Dipped
Again after Slight Increase in July
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY % chg.
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Retreated after Bounce
Back
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in Every Segment under $750k
August 2018 (Year-to-Year)
15%
9.7%
10%
5% 2.6%
1.0%
0%
-5%
-3.7%
-10% -7.0%
-15% -10.1%

-20% -16.5%
-25%
-25.8%
-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price Bounced Back But
Appreciation Slowing Down
California, August 2018: $596,410, +0.8% MTM, +5.5% YTY
Aug-18:
P:May-07
$700,000 $596,410
$594,530 Aug-17:
$565,320
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
9%
8.1%
8% 7.4% 7.5%
7% 6.8%

5.7% 5.9%
6% 5.5%
5.1%
5%
4.3%
4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Growth Moderated for both Homes and
Condos
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Median Price Dipped
After Peaking in July
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Aug-18:
Aug-17:
$474,570
$300,000 $446,850

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07

Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12

Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-08
Oct-08

May-13
Oct-13

May-18
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Foot Remained Near Record
High
August 2018: $283, Down 2.1% MTM, Up 5.6% YTY
$400
Aug-18:
$350
Aug-17: $283
$268
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales Price -to-List Price Had Back-to-
Back Declines
August 2018: 99.0%, -0.6% MTM, -0.5% YTY
Aug-17:
Aug-18:
99.5%
99.0%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales
Price Tapering Off in the Near Term
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
1/1/2009
5/1/2009
9/1/2009
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
100.5%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

99.5%

99.0%
99.0%

98.5%

98.0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Aug-17 Aug-18

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Near Record-Low Level
California, Aug 2018: 18.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
Median Time on Market
30
27
25
25
21 20 21
20 19 18 19 1920 18
20 20 20
17 16 17 1718 18

15

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Aug-17 Aug-18

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.9%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3%
Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained
Tight
Aug 2017: 2.9 Months; Aug 2018: 3.3 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Continued to Increase for the
5th Consecutive Month
Year-over-Year % Chg
20% 17.2%
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
Unsold Inventory Index
12

10 9.7
9.2

6 5.5
4.8
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3
4 3.63.4 3.63.9
2.9 3.1 2.62.8 2.9
2.6 2.7 2.6
2

Aug-17 Aug-18

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Housing Supply Improved across the Board,
Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment
Aug 2018
Active Listing
30% 27.8%
21.4% 21.4% 19.8%
20% 17.2%

10% 7.7%
4.5%

0%

-10%

-14.6%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to
Soften
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0
3.6
3.0 3.1
2.3
2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2017 2018
 Active Listings Surged in All Regions
Aug 2018

Sales Active Listings

40%
34%

30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%
20%

12%
10% 6%
2%
0%

-7% -6%
-10% -8%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®