20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011

Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

Global Heavy Crude Oil Outlook to 2030

Mrs Kristine Klavers, Hart Energy, USA

Mrs Laura Atkins, Hart Energy, USA

Abstract
The 2009 global recession, which reduced oil demand and created tight credit conditions, has
largely receded. Oil demand, which had declined, has since begun to grow again. Some of
the large projects related to heavy crude production, upgrading and refining that had been
suspended have been revived. Oil prices have rebounded and investments in higher cost
non-conventional oil resources are again being made in many parts of the world. The lower
costs that were seen during the recession have also rebounded, though the costs for labor
and services are still lower than before the recession.recession. This presentation will take
these changes into consideration. This presentation will highlight conventional heavy oil as
well as extra-heavy oil and bitumen production projections. This presentation will provide:

* Detailed analysis of North American PADD regions

* Disposition by region - internal market vs. export

* Country-by-country analysis

o Resources and state of development

o Costs and economics

o Political, environmental and regulatory considerations

o Production forecasts

* New heavy oil projects and expansions

* Technology, constraints and environmental impacts

* Pricing analysis, cost of processing different quality crudes

Refer to http://www.hartenergy.com/Downstream/Research-And-Consulting/Heavy-Crude-Oil-
A-Global-Analysis-And-Outlook-to-2030/

Global Heavy Crude Oil Outlook to 2035

Mrs Kristine Klavers
Mrs Laura Atkins

The 2009 global recession, which reduced oil demand and created tight credit conditions, has
largely receded. Oil demand, which had declined, has since begun to grow again. Some of
the large projects related to heavy crude production, upgrading and refining that had been
suspended have been revived. Oil prices have rebounded and investments in higher cost
non-conventional oil resources are again being made in many parts of the world. The lower
costs that were seen during the recession have also rebounded, though the costs for labor
and services are still lower than before the recession.recession. This presentation will take
these changes into consideration. This presentation will highlight conventional heavy oil as
well as extra-heavy oil and bitumen production projections. This presentation will provide:
* Detailed analysis of North American PADD regions
* Disposition by region - internal market vs. export

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

* Country-by-country analysis
o Resources and state of development
o Costs and economics
o Political, environmental and regulatory considerations
o Production forecasts
* New heavy oil projects and expansions
* Technology, constraints and environmental impacts
* Pricing analysis, cost of processing different quality crudes
Refer to http://www.hartenergy.com/Downstream/Research-And-Consulting/Heavy-Crude-Oil-
A-Global-Analysis-And-Outlook-to-2030/

Introduction

While oil demand grew faster than expected in 2010 after the global recession of 2009, it is
growing more slowly in 2011. Actual oil demand growth in 2010 was higher than forecasted at
the beginning of the year, causing the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise its outlook
upward by 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) for 2011. In August 2011, the agency tempered its
growth expectations by revising its forecast downward by 100,000 b/d, citing several of the
aforementioned factors. OPEC also revised its forecast downward by 150,000 b/d. Though
the downgrades represent only a fraction of the average 88.1 million b/d OPEC expects to be
consumed this year worldwide, or the 89.5 million b/d expected by the IEA, they cast doubt on
future demand projections.

In this context of economic volatility, the outlook for heavy crude oil production also faces
uncertainty. Thus, Hart Energy is presenting two outlook scenarios for global heavy crude oil
out to 2035: the first considers only existing production and new projects that are in advanced
planning stages and reasonably certain to be developed by 2020; the second is a scenario in
which heavy oil development continues beyond 2020 with ventures that are less certain, such
as numerous announced Canadian oil sands projects, heavy oil developments in Africa and
development in the Venezuelan Orinoco Belt beyond current plans. The long term scenario
also includes speculative developments of U.S. bitumen resources, Chinese bitumen and new
discoveries in Africa and Mexico.

Heavy oil is defined in general as crude oil with API gravity less than or equal to 22°. Crude oil
below 10° API gravity is defined as bitumen if it i s a solid, or extra-heavy oil if it is mobile at
initial reservoir conditions. Heavy crude greater than 10° API gravity is often referred to as
“conventional” heavy crude, whereas below 10° it is generally considered to be
“unconventional” crude. These definitions are illustrated on Figure 1.

Figure 1: Definitions of Heavy Crude Oil and Bitumen

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

27

Medium heavy oil

API Gravity 22

Heavy oil

10

Extra-heavy oil Bitumen

<10,000 cp >10,000 cp

Viscosity at reservoir conditions

Heavy crude oil and bitumen are widely distributed around the globe as shown on Figure 2.
o
As mentioned, extra-heavy oil and bitumen includes all crude below 10 API gravity. Heavy oil
o o o
is defined as crude with API gravities between 10 and 22 or up to 23 if it has high sulfur
content.

Figure 2: Heavy Crude and Bitumen Resources

Bitumen and Extra-Heavy Oil

Heavy Oil

706
225
19
80
2,328
612 1
46 971

83
2,334 9
1,143 244

Heavy oil often requires the addition of heat to the reservoir to recover more than a small
fraction of the oil in place, and all bitumen must be heated before it can be produced. In
onshore reservoirs that are less than about 3,000 feet deep, this is generally accomplished by
injecting steam. External energy requirements can be quite high for steam injection, and
water use is high unless the water produced with the oil is treated and re-used. Deep and/or
offshore heavy oil reservoirs can be produced under water or gas injection and sometimes
can be aided by polymer injection, but recovery factors are generally lower.

Outlook

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

Figure 3 shows the global heavy crude oil outlook under the short/medium term project
scenario and the long term scenario in which additional projects are developed after 2020. In
the short- and medium-term outlook, heavy crude oil production peaks at 12.3 million b/d in
2020, remains at this level through 2025 and declines thereafter. In the scenario in which
long-term projects are included, heavy oil production continues to grow significantly beyond
2020, reaching 16 million b/d by 2025 and remaining at this level through 2035.

Figure 3: Global Heavy Crude Oil Outlook under the Short/Medium Term
and Long Term Project Scenarios
18,000
16,000
Thousand Barrels per day

14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Long Term Projects Short/Medium Term Projects

Figure 4 shows heavy oil production by region under the short/medium term and long term
scenarios. The region with the highest growth under the short/medium term scenario is the
Middle East at 1.2 million b/d. This is predominantly from new conventional heavy oil
developments in Iraq and Iran, as well as heavy oil development in Kuwait and in the
Partitioned Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Iraq sees the largest increase;
the country has huge undeveloped structures with multiple pay zones, some of which contain
heavy high sulfur crude oil and where oil investments have been low to non-existent for the
past three decades. In Iran, the giant undeveloped Azadegan heavy oil field will begin
production under the assumption that the project goes forward.

North America sees the next highest growth. Heavy oil output increases by 800,000 b/d as
Canadian oil sands production increases, offsetting declines in conventional heavy oil in the
U.S. and Mexico. This is followed closely by South America at 770,000 b/d. Small increases
in heavy oil production are expected in Asia and Africa, while Europe, Russia and Central
Asia decline over the forecast period.

The outlook includes both conventional and unconventional heavy oil production. Currently,
the only unconventional resources that produce significant quantities are the Canadian oil
sands and the Orinoco Belt extra-heavy oil in Venezuela. Within the next 20 years, Canadian
oil sands production will expand from 1.6 million b/d to 3.1 million b/d, and will remain at this
level through 2035 under the short- and medium-term scenario; Venezuela will build new
projects in the Orinoco Belt, increasing production to 1.26 million b/d of extra-heavy oil blend
and 660,000 b/d of light SCO. Note that light SCO is not included in Figures 3 and 4. Both
resources are huge, with current proven reserves estimated to be 175 billion barrels in
Canada and at least 150 billion barrels in the Orinoco Belt. The outlook includes smaller
o
quantities of unconventional crude (less than 10 API gravity) in Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador,
Peru, the North Sea and China.

Figure 4: Heavy Oil Production by Region

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

7,000

6,000

Thousands barrels per day

5,000

4,000
2010
3,000 2020
2030
2,000
2030 w/ Long Term
1,000

0
N. America S. America Europe, Asia Pacific Middle Africa
Russia & East
Central
Asia

Under the long term scenario, most of the additional production comes from Canada and
Venezuela. Canadian oil sands production will increase to 4.8 million b/d by 2030 and 5.0
million b/d by 2035. In Canada, the long term scenario would create high demand for
condensate and other light hydrocarbons for use as diluents unless some of the additional
crude is upgraded. Thus, though there are no current plans to build more upgraders beyond
2020, the economics of importing more diluents could begin to favor additional upgrading.
These could be lower-cost partial upgraders that produce heavy sour SCO, or they could be
full upgraders that produce light SCO, some of which that can be used as diluents, as is being
done in Venezuela.

Venezuelan Orinoco Belt production is also higher in the long-term scenario – another 1.6
million b/d of extra-heavy oil blend and 720,000 b/d of light SCO enter the export markets by
2030. The long-term scenario also includes highly speculative unconventional production in
the United States, China and Africa from known resources. There are smaller contributions
from Ecuador and Mexico, for a total incremental production from the Americas of 2.7 million
b/d in 2025 and increasing to 4.2 million b/d by 2035. The new developments more than offset
decline in existing fields. Elsewhere in the world, new projects in Africa and China together
contribute 1.0 million b/d to the long-term outlook. A large percentage of the long-term
incremental production is unconventional heavy oil – 70% in 2025 and 77% in 2035. Table 1
lists major projects that contribute to the short/medium and long term project scenarios.

Table 1: Major Projects that Contribute Heavy Oil Production in the Short/Medium Term
and Long Term Project Scenarios (Thousand Barrels per Day)

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

Long Term 2030: Addition

Short and Medium Term
Project to Short/Medium Term
Incremental 2010 - 2020
Production
Canadian Oil Sands 1,182 1,740
US tar Sands 200
Venezuelan Orinoco Belt 3,716 1,143
Colombia HO Development 398
Angola Offshore HCO 153
Ecuador ITT 180
China New Disc.&Tar Sands 780
Madagascar Tsimiroro & Bemolanga 125
Congo Tchikatanga-Makola Bitumen 30
Kuwait Northern Heavy Oil Fields 200
Iran North and South Azadegan Fields 220
Iraq Heavy Oil 520
Total 6,389 4,198

Heavy crude oil that is not refined in the country or region in which it is produced enters the
export market. There are various reasons for exporting heavy crude oil. Some countries that
produce heavy oil today don’t have the conversion capacity to process heavy crude; thus they
export it while importing light crude to run in their refineries. Other countries that are major
crude exporters export heavy crude in preference to lighter grades. India and China have
greatly expanded heavy crude processing capacity to take advantage of the large volumes of
this crude coming on the market in the next 20+ years. The largest volumes of heavy crude
entering the export markets in the next twenty years are from South America and the Middle
East as shown in Figure 5. In North America today, all Canadian heavy crude that is not
processed in Canada is sent to the United States. This market is well integrated and for this
reason we consider it one market; thus oil exports from Canada to the U.S. are not
considered to be entering the export market for the purpose of this analysis. The small
volume of exports from North America in Figure 5 is sent from Mexico to Central America and
the Caribbean. This goes to zero as Mexico’s internal demand increases and its refining
capacity is expanded.

The other region with no exports is Asia Pacific. The only heavy crude producers in this
region are China and India, both of which refine nearly all of their production internally.
There are small volumes of heavy oil exports from Europe, Russia and Central Asia. Exports
decline as heavy oil production from this region declines. With no new heavy oil projects on
the horizon, we see no change in this region under the long term project scenario.

Figure 5: Heavy Crude Oil entering the Export Market, Short/Medium Term Project Scenario

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

4,000
North America
3,500

Thousand Barrels per Day

3,000 South America

2,500
Europe, Russia &
2,000 Central Asia
Asia Pacific
1,500

1,000 Middle East

500
Africa
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Under the long term scenario, Canadian oilsands production reaches 4.8 million b/d. Under
this scenario, Canadian heavy crude will be exported outside North America, reaching
744,000 b/d by 2030 and 1.3 million b/d by 2035. This is due to two shifts in the North
American crude outlook – 1) the rapid increase in shale oil production, which will reduce
imports volumes overall and 2) the gradual decline in U.S. oil demand and refinery capacity.
These factors make it essential that Canada develop export infrastructure if oil sands
development is to continue.

Exports from South America increase quite dramatically under this scenario and then
gradually decline as internal demand increases. Africa also sees higher export volumes under
the long term scenario. In the Asia Pacific region, although heavy oil production is higher in
China, none of this extra production is expected to be exported. The Middle East and Europe,
Russia and Central Asia remain the same under the long term project scenario because at
this time it does not appear that there are new heavy oil projects on the horizon.

Figure 6: Heavy Crude Oil entering the Export Market, Long Term Project Scenario

4,000
North America
3,500
Thousand Barrels per Day

3,000 South America

2,500
Europe, Russia &
2,000 Central Asia
Asia Pacific
1,500

1,000 Middle East

500
Africa
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Costs and Pricing

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

There are other sources of crude oil that could be developed preferentially over heavy crude.
These include other unconventional sources such as shale oil, which is rapidly increasing
production in North America. In Brazil, which is a significant heavy oil producer today, the
focus for new development is the light-oil pre-salt discoveries. Another potential huge source
of light and medium crude oil is Iraq, which has signed several contracts with IOCs to develop
its huge resources.

The initial investment for any oil field development consists of production and injection wells,
facilities to handle fluids on the surface, and pipelines or other means to transport the oil to a
market. Heavy oil generally requires more wells than light oil and often special equipment
such as steam injection facilities, high-powered electric pumps to bring oil to the surface and
in the case of some unconventional fields, upgrading facilities. Or, in the case of mining
operations, enormous shovels and facilities to separate bitumen from sand and other minerals
must be put into place. In most onshore heavy oil developments, the wells are shallow and
this offsets some of the costs associated with drilling more wells. Extra-heavy oil and bitumen
has to be blended with lighter hydrocarbons before it can be transported to an export facility
or refinery. Blending facilities add to the cost. Fields under steam or water injection produce
large quantities of water which must be handled on the surface.

Though there are many reasons that countries will develop their domestic crude oil resources
besides costs, one way to assess the likelihood of various types of developments is to
compare costs. Cost data is presented in Table 2 for Canadian oil Sands and for the Orinoco
Belt in Venezuela, the two most important sources of incremental unconventional heavy crude
production. Since these are long-term projects with low decline rates, Table 2 compares
capital intensity, which is the capital cost per barrel per day. On this basis, Canadian oil sands
in-situ projects generally cost between $10,000 and $50,000 per b/d capacity. Mining projects
are within the same range at the upper end, with the lower end being about $36,000. If the
project includes an upgrader, it will increase the cost by anywhere from $20,000 to $60,000
depending on the process used and the quality of the SCO product, which can vary from
o o
heavy sour SCO with API gravities of 20 to 22 , up to very light high quality SCO with no
o
sulfur. A new partial upgrader that produces 19 API gravity sour SCO costs as little as
$10,000 per b/d capacity. The new Orinoco Projects in Venezuela generally will follow similar
development schemes in which half of the production will be upgraded. Part of the light SCO
produced in the upgraders will be used as diluent for the remaining heavy oil production.

Table 2: Initial Investment Costs in US$ per Barrel of Reserves for Venezuelan Orinoco Belt
and Canadian Oil Sands Projects

Initial Recoverable
Country Projects Investment reserves $ per barrel
($ Million) (Million barrels)
Venezuela Petromonagas 2,500 200 12.50
Petrocedeno 4,300 209 20.57
Petropiar 3,600 328 10.98
Petro Indovenezuelana 6,300 261 24.14
Junin Block 2 24,247 1,165 20.81
Junin Block 4 19,538 2,407 8.12
Junin Block 5 23,900 1,418 16.85
Carabobo 1 25,000 2,438 10.25
Carabobo 3 25,000 2,438 10.25
Canada Firebag Phase 3 3,640 341 10.67
Sunrise 2,500 362 6.91
Jackfish 3 1,200 194 6.19
Surmont Phase 1 1,400 126 11.10
Surmont Phase 2 2,625 450 5.83
Christina Lake 2B 1,400 160 8.75
Long Lake SAGD & Upgrader 6,100 405 15.06
Tamarack SAGD & Partial Upgrader 645 110 5.89
Horizon Mine & Upgrader 9,700 1,380 7.03

Kearl Mine 8,100 2,248 3.60

Another method to compare costs is to determine the initial investment cost per barrel of
reserves developed by that investment in US$ per barrel. The comparison is more useful for

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

comparing fields with differing production characteristics; for example offshore fields with high
decline rates with onshore fields with low decline rates. The average cost for new Canadian
oil sands projects is about US$8.00 per barrel. For the Venezuelan Orinoco the cost is
US$15.00 per barrel. Some of the cost difference is caused by the degree of upgrading that
will be done before the oil is sent to markets. Upgraders that convert bitumen or extra-heavy
crude oil into synthetic crude oil (SCO) can add considerable capital costs. On a cost per
barrel basis they run about $1.50 to $5.00 per barrel assuming the upgrader life is 40 years
and operating costs are significant.

Other heavy oil projects included in the cost summary are a new offshore heavy oil
development in the Arctic region of Alaska, a long-term bitumen project in Congo, offshore
heavy oil projects in the North Sea, a heavy oil development in Iran, and a medium-heavy oil
development in Saudi Arabia. These costs provide a range that can be expected for heavy oil
developments around the world. They vary considerably by region with the Middle East being
the lowest cost region and regions with less infrastructure being higher cost. Harsh
environments such as the Arctic increase costs, as do offshore projects, particularly those in
deep water. Offshore fields in particular have high decline rates because the cost to mitigate
decline through additional drilling or injecting fluids are prohibitively high offshore.

It has been stated many times that the era of easy inexpensive crude oil is over. Our analysis
shows this to be true outside of the Middle East, where huge volumes of unexploited
conventional crude oil have been waiting for development for decades. New conventional light
oil developments are increasingly in difficult environments; for example the Brazilian pre-salt
reservoirs are located in over 7,000 feet of water and another 16,000 to 17,000 feet below the
seabed. This is a high cost development, higher than many unconventional heavy oil
developments. There are also unconventional light oil resources; for example, shale oil.
Production from these resources are cost-competitive and are rapidly increasing in North
America, contributing to current infrastructure constraints and possibly in the future, an
oversupply of light crude into this market. Shale oil resources are located in every region of
the world and appear to be cost competitive with other unconventional sources. At today’s oil
prices all of these projects are economic.

Table 3: Summary of Costs of New Sources of Crude Oil

Initial
Initial Reserves
Country Projects Investment $ per barrel
(Million Barrels)
(US$ Million)
Canada Oil Sands Average 3,731 578 8.10
Venezuela Orinoco Belt Average 14,932 1,207 14.94
Congo Tchikatanga-Makolas 4,290 150 28.60
United States Nikaitchuq Offshore Alaska 2,000 220 9.09
U.K. North Sea Mariner and Bressay 10,700 600 17.83
Iran South Azadegan 2,000 1,640 1.22
Saudi Arabia Manifa 11,000 10,000 1.10
Brazil Papa Terra 5,200 380 13.68
Brazil Pre-Salt 250,000 14,300 17.48
United States Shale Oil Wells Average 7.61 0.525 14.49

As Table 3 indicates, unconventional extra-heavy oil and bitumen in Venezuela and Canada
are no more costly than pre-salt oil and shale oil. The project in Congo is more costly because
of its remote location and lack of infrastructure. The offshore conventional heavy oil
developments in the North Sea and Brazil cost more but are still competitive. Thus, cost alone
will not defer heavy oil development. Other factors such as external energy and water use,
with the associated environmental impacts, could serve to deter investment in heavy oil in
some parts of the world. However, the primary factor in whether heavy oil will be developed at
the pace suggested in the long-term outlook of this analysis will depend on how fast oil
demand continues to grow, the oil price and how fast new light oil sources, such as Iraq and
the Brazilian pre-salt developments, come online.

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

The price differences between light and heavy crude oils and light and heavy products are
among the most important variables affecting refinery margins, and thus, affect the economics
of producing and reefing these crude sources. Price differentials are the incentives for
installing expensive processing facilities in a refinery, including fluid catalytic cracking,
hydrocracking, coking and other residual conversion facilities that convert the heavy material
in crude oil to lighter, higher-valued products such as gasoline and diesel.

The heavy material in crude oil can be made into heavy product or converted into light
product if a refinery has the conversion facilities. The price of heavy oil products is determined
in lower valued market applications in which residual fuel oils compete with coal and natural
gas. The demand for heavy and extra-heavy crude oil is determined by three factors: 1)
installed capacity of high conversion; 2) specialty market: asphalt, lubricants and power
generation, the last two being the least important; and 3) bunker production.
When the demand and price of residual oil decline relative to other refined products, light
crude oils become more attractive. Light-heavy product and crude price differentials increase.
As the differentials increase, the incentive for refiners to install more heavy crude conversion
equipment increases.

But markets move in both directions. Over time, the relative demand for light and heavy
products may shift and additional light crude oil may become available, or refiners may install
too much conversion equipment. Either of these circumstances would tend to push the light
and heavy prices closer together, reducing the differential.

Figure 7: Price differential to West Texas Intermediate for Various Heavy Crudes

50.00
Differential to WTI US$ per Barrel

40.00
Mars
30.00
Arab Heavy
Vasconia
20.00
Duri
Maya
10.00
Lloyd Blend
0.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10.00

Global Supply Implications

Figure 8 summarizes global liquid supplies with heavy crude components indicated. No
attempt was made to match supply to demand for this analysis. The forecast includes all
existing and known planned heavy oil projects in the short/medium term and a separate
forecast of long-term production. Light and medium crude production was estimated based on
current production, natural field decline rates and new projects coming online, most notably,
Iraqi light oil production and Brazil’s pre-salt fields. A separate forecast of shale oil production
in North America is included. It is relatively small on a global scale, and it could be
conservative given the current pace of development.
As shown on Figure 8, condensate/NGL will provide the largest incremental contribution to
total petroleum supply, increasing by 7.6 million b/d from 2010 to 2035. The second-highest
contribution comes from biofuels at 3.6 million b/d. If only the short- and medium-term heavy

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 20th World Petroleum Congress, Doha 2011
Forum 15: Heavy oil and residue upgrading

oil projects are included as in the short/medium term scenario, total heavy oil increases by
900,000 b/d, with increases in unconventional heavy oil barely offsetting the decline in
conventional heavy oil. Light SCO production, from upgraded bitumen or extra-heavy oil
reaches 1.5 million b/d. If long-term heavy oil is taken into account, heavy oil supplies will
increase by another 4.7 million b/d by 2035. Thus, the contribution of heavy oil to future global
liquid supplies depends to a large degree on how much of the long-term potential is
developed.

The most recent EIA demand forecast is shown on Figure 8 to examine how well this oil
supply meets demand. This demand forecast indicates there could be excess crude supply
around 2020, as new light and medium crude from Iraq and Brazil begin producing. The
supply forecast does not take into consideration OPEC supply cuts to balance the market; the
excess supply in the medium term, if it materializes, may indicate that OPEC will reduce
production during this time frame. It could also mean that some of the higher cost
unconventional field developments will be delayed. However, by 2030, there is an apparent
supply shortage. Supply and demand could also be balanced by shifting the timing of some of
the long-term heavy oil development. The important point is that heavy oil will be needed over
the long term to meet future demand. However, there is considerable uncertainty over future
liquid supply and demand but the most important conclusion from this analysis is that crude
supplies are available from heavy oil, in particular the unconventional resources.

Figure 8: Global Liquid Production Outlook by Type

(Million barrels per day)

120

100

Long Term HCO

Other
80 Condensate/NGL
Biofuels
GTL/CTL
Light SCO
60
Unconventional heavy
Conventional heavy
Shale Oil

40 Light/Medium Crude
EIA Forecast

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Heavy oil will continue to be a significant source of crude entering the export market even in
the short/medium term project scenario. If the long term projects are completed, which seems
likely given the need for additional crude oil supplies by 2030, there will 6 million b/d or so of
heavy crude being exported for the foreseeable future. This is incremental to the heavy crude
that is processed in the country in which it is produced, or in the case of North America, the
region in which it is produced.

© World Petroleum Council