Regional and Local Economy and Demographics Design Standards

Current Transport Conditions Costing

Data and Information Management Benefits and Impacts

Management Systems Selected References

Demand Forecasting

Previous sections have described the establishment of clear and logical processes for conducting road
and highway planning. This section describes analysis tools and methods that are used to inform the
various steps of the planning process. These tools and methods support planning efforts at all levels
including system, corridor, and project planning. Established procedures to collect, manage, and analyze
data are critical in identifying road and highway needs; evaluating the benefits and costs of potential
projects; and comparing the effects of various projects and programming decisions.

Regional and Local Economy and Demographics

Compiling regional and local economic and demographic data is an important first step in assessing
transport needs. Data on population by geographic area provide a key indicator of the market served by
the road or highway, and thus the potential demand. Additional demographic data, such as income,
automobile ownership, and children and elderly population can further help identify personal transport
needs (low automobile ownership, for example, might indicate a high importance of public transit
service and non-motorized traffic accommodation.) Economic data, such as number of establishments
and total employment in an area, can indicate major destinations for goods movement and business
travel. Economic data by type of industry is important because different industries will have different
needs for transport services. Finally, economic and demographic data can serve as a basis for forecasting
traffic flows over an improved transport network (see "Demand Forecasting").

The extent and quality of existing data sources varies considerably from country to country. Most
countries will have some type of national census from which population and demographic data can be
obtained. Many countries also collect data on total establishments, employment, and sales by industry
on a regular basis although the level of geographic detail varies. Regardless of the extent of existing
data, it is important that the road and highway administration establish the management of these data
as a routine part of their work.
In cases where national and local sources do not contain the required data, or where these sources have
not been recently updated, satellite imagery or aerial photography can be used to estimate population
and economic data. Photographs can be analyzed to determine the location of housing units and
therefore to estimate the population of an area. Photographs can also be used to locate concentrations
of businesses as well as major industries.

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Current Transport Conditions

An inventory of the location, extent, and quality of existing transport facilities is a key step in assessing
future transport needs. A road data bank should be established and updated on a regular basis. Key
characteristics of roads and highways include functional class and other route designations (national,
regional, or local jurisdiction; truck and/or bus route), limited-access, number of lanes, lane and
shoulder widths, design speeds, capacity, and pavement type and condition. Bridges are often a limiting
factor in transport system performance, and an inventory of bridges should include factors such as road
served, location, width, load rating, vertical clearance, age, and structural condition. The location of
intermodal terminals including ports, airports, and rail terminals, along with the characteristics of roads
accessing these terminals (especially suitability for truck traffic), are also key data elements.

Unless a regular data collection and update system is in place, it is important to recognize that the
information may not be current. This is particularly true for factors such as pavement conditions (which
may deteriorate) and for improvements undertaken by one administration that are not transferred to
another administration's records. Therefore, if the existing facility inventory data is not current,
procedures to update these data need to be devised. A combination of interviews with local
professionals, site visits and field data collection and other appropriate means can be used to jump-start
the process. As with population and industry data, satellite imaging or aerial photography can also serve
as a data source on the location and nature of existing transport facilities.

Data on transport system performance and use provide a counterpart to data on facilities. System
performance data are essential to the economic analysis of transport investments and to the analysis of
other project benefits and impacts. One key type of system performance data includes traffic volumes
by facility and vehicle type. A regular monitoring program should be established to count traffic volumes
by type of vehicle on key roads and highways. Data on traffic volumes can be used in conjunction with
facility information to evaluate level-of-service. Road traffic volume data can also be used in conjunction
with flow data for railways, waterways, and air traffic to identify major corridors for people and goods
movement. Click here for a description of a national traffic-monitoring program. For guidance on traffic
monitoring techniques and sampling methods, see Items 2 and 3 in the "Selected References" section of
this document.

Another important type of system performance data is crash locations and characteristics. Key crash
characteristics include the location, time, and environmental conditions of the crash; vehicles and
persons involved; nature and extent of injuries and property damage; and contributing factors. Crash
reporting practices vary both at a national and local level. If local or national databases do not exist,
interviews with public and private transport operators, local transport officials, or law enforcement
officials can help pinpoint frequent locations of crashes and other incidents. Safety councils of the
police, highway department, and other agencies, established to coordinate accident response
procedures, may also serve as a source of data. Click here to see an example of a national and regional
crash data reporting system.

Information on the location and severity of crashes can be used to identify and prioritize facilities for
safety-related improvements. Information on conditions, contributing factors and outcomes is also
valuable in assessing the effectiveness of various actions to improve safety. Data on crash frequency by
location should be used in conjunction with measures of exposure (for example, traffic volumes) to
assess relative hazards and prioritize locations for improvement.

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Data and Information Management

Economic, demographic, facility condition, and systems performance data may be kept in a variety of
forms, including paper maps, tabular databases, and geographic information systems (GIS) software.
Emerging computer and software technology can greatly enhance the management and analysis of
transportation-related data.

The use of GIS to manage data can simplify the analysis of transport systems and can enhance the
decision-making process. GIS are software tools for managing, analyzing, and displaying data in a spatial
framework. GIS contain data related to location points, lines (commonly roadway links and corridors),
and polygons (surface areas and analysis zones). Analysis tools that are part of GIS software packages
can be used to relate these data, for example, to calculate the population within two kilometers of a
given highway route. In addition to providing a convenient electronic means of storing and analyzing
data, GIS can be used to produce displays and printed maps. Any number of attributes (for example,
roadway locations, traffic volumes, and major industries) can be plotted on the same map. For links to
examples of GIS applications, click here.

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Management Systems

Management systems include software programs and related processes to assist in managing and
analyzing various components of the transport system. Performance management systems focus on
factors such as system safety, congestion and mobility, and intermodal connections. Asset management
systems help agencies manage physical assets including bridges, pavement, public transit equipment
and facilities, and real estate.

Management systems are based on inventories of existing facilities and performance characteristics. GIS
and shared network databases are commonly used to give multiple users access to these systems and to
facilitate the management, analysis, and display of data. Management systems can allow users to define
and view existing conditions and performance measures; define acceptable performance standards; and
identify deficiencies by comparing existing facility conditions with standards. Management systems also
include analytical tools to evaluate the impacts of alternative investment strategies on system condition
and performance. For example, Pavement Management Systems (PMS) can be used to select the best
combination of preventive maintenance and capital improvement projects that can be purchased at a
given spending level, in order to minimize life-cycle costs. See the following examples of management
systems:

PIARC Highway Development and Management (HDM) System

Bridge Management System

Michigan Intermodal Management System

Michigan Congestion Management System

Integrated Management System: See Item 4 in the "Selected References" section of this document.
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Demand Forecasting

Future "demand" or level of use of the transport system may change as a result of two types of factors:

"Background" increases in population, economic activity, automobile ownership, total trip-making,

and other factors that drive transportation activity, occurring independent of transportation
improvements;

Increases in these same factors that are caused (or made possible) by the transportation
improvement. This second category is often known as "induced" or "latent" demand. It is of particular
importance in the case of significant improvements such as construction of a new highway or a major
upgrade in highway performance. Induced demand is closely related to the impacts on economic growth
caused by the highway improvement. Click here for a discussion of induced demand and its
consideration in forecasting and evaluation.

In addition to increasing overall traffic, transport investments may affect the distribution of existing
traffic by changing the relative cost of travel on various transport routes.

Demand forecasting involves a set of analytical procedures to estimate future levels of transport system
use as a result of changes in population characteristics, economic activity, and transport network
conditions, and of subsequent changes in travel patterns. Demand forecasting serves different purposes
depending upon the level of the study. For strategic planning, forecasts are needed to evaluate the
overall viability of alternative strategies and the demand for individual components of these strategies.
For corridor planning, forecasts are needed to determine the adequacy of existing facilities and services
in the corridor and the potential need for expanding these facilities and services. For facility planning,
forecasts are needed to determine the appropriate capacity of new facilities that may be built and of
existing facilities that are being considered for expansion.

Methods for demand forecasting can range from very simple to very complex. At the most basic level,
past trends in traffic growth can be extrapolated to predict future levels of traffic in any given year. A
more sophisticated approach will estimate future traffic based on projections of the underlying drivers
of traffic - for example population, economic activity, vehicle ownership. Either of these methods can be
applied at a regional or corridor level to provide a rough estimate of future transportation demands.
More sophisticated methods of forecasting the underlying variables are likely to result in more accurate
traffic forecasts.

The population and employment forecasts provide a basis for estimating future "background" flows on
the system. The future transportation network can then be varied to describe proposed improvements
to the road and highway system. This will predict the changes in the distribution of future traffic over
the network, and to some extent will predict increases in travel caused by reductions in transportation
costs. Demand forecasting methods have primarily been developed for urban applications, but these
same methods are increasingly being adapted for state or regional planning. See the following
references for additional information on demand forecasting:

An introduction to urban travel demand forecasting

Links to various references, examples, etc. on travel demand forecasting

Links to information about recent advances in travel demand forecasting techniques

Overview of statewide travel forecasting practice in the United States. Horowitz, Alan J. and David D.
Farmer. 1999. A Critical Review of Statewide Travel Forecasting Practice. Presented at the 1999
Transportation Research Board Conference.

Statewide travel modeling in Oregon

A World Bank study group is also looking at advanced travel forecasting models and their potential
application to regional road and highway planning.

Various surveys and counts must be performed to support travel demand forecasting using four-step or
other network-type models. Basic data requirements include:

Household travel surveys, which ask people to record their trip patterns (origin, destination, mode,
purpose, time, etc.) over a fixed time period. These are used to establish existing travel patterns and as a
basis for modeling responses to future system changes.

External or cordon surveys, which are performed at the boundary of the study area to identify trips for
which one or both ends are outside the area.
 Commercial vehicle surveys, to determine origins, destinations, routes, types of commodities, etc. of
truck traffic.

Traffic counts, which are used to calibrate models (for example,, compare actual to predicted flows
and adjust model coefficients to improve accuracy.)

See Items 5 and 6 in the "Selected References" section of this document to read about other types of
surveys, such as employer-based surveys and transit on-board surveys, which may also be used to
support modeling. Click here to display or download the Travel Survey Manual prepared by Cambridge
Systematic, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, Federal
Highway Administration, Office of the Secretary, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (July
1996), which contains a detailed description of the various types of travel surveys and how to
implement them, and also to view samples of different types of travel surveys.

Demand forecasting models originally focused on personal travel, but recently the importance of
forecasting freight and other commercial vehicle traffic has received increasing attention. A noteworthy
difference between freight and passenger travel analysis is that in the case of freight analysis, interviews
with logistics coordinators at a sample of larger businesses and freight shipping companies can often
provide a good picture of the primary freight travel patterns and needs. Passenger travel patterns, in
contrast, vary at the level of the individual and random, large-sample surveys of the population are
required.

For an overview of the factors influencing freight travel, and basic methods for forecasting this travel,
click here. For additional discussion of planning considerations and forecasting methods for freight
travel, see Item 7 in the "Selected References" section of this document

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Design Standards

Design standards describe characteristics of the roadway geometry, such as lane width, radius of curves,
and acceptable grade, as well as traffic control devices including signals, signage, and pavement
markings. The establishment of design standards for roadways promotes safety and efficiency, since the
standards are based on established research on the safety and performance implications of various
design features. Uniform designs further promote safety by increasing the predictability of the driving
environment, so that the road user knows what to expect in any given situation.

Traffic control devices, including signals, signs, and pavement markings, should be applied in a uniform
manner and should have uniform design and meanings wherever they are applied. Design standards for
roadway geometry, while also important, can have somewhat more flexibility and can vary depending
upon the functional class, projected traffic volume, desired design speed, environmental sensitivity, and
other considerations. Standards that are reasonable for roads built on flat terrain, for example, may lead
to prohibitively expensive construction costs in mountainous areas. Also, roads with low projected
traffic volumes generally do not require design standards as strict as those for high-volume roads. Since
design standards have a large impact on cost, they should not be set higher than can reasonably be
achieved within the highway program budget. Selection of appropriate design standards should be
based on a comparison of the costs of achieving these standards with the benefits to users in terms of
safety, travel time, and other measures.

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Costing

Project costs consist of initial costs, capital costs, and the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs
associated with the project. Initial costs include the cost of project planning and design. Capital costs
include land acquisition, construction of the road, and installation of signals and other control
equipment. O&M costs include routine maintenance of the roadway and control devices and can include
other items such as vegetation control, trash cleanup, snow removal, and toll operators' salaries. Also,
capital expenditures can affect O&M costs, and the likely impacts of any capital expenditure on O&M
costs should be clearly identified and accounted for in the budgeting process. For an overview of costing
approaches, click here.

System-level cost estimation is a useful technique for regional road and highway planning. System-level
cost estimation uses local project cost experience as the basis for cost estimates of candidate projects
and programs. It is primarily useful for long-range planning efforts, in which financially constrained
system plans are required but information is not sufficient to estimate detailed quantities and unit costs.
Operating and maintenance cost estimating for road and highway systems generally includes labor,
materials, and supplies expenditures that are consumed in operating the system over a given time
period, usually a year.

Life cycle costing is an economic assessment of all significant costs of ownership of an asset over its
economic life, expressed in equivalent dollars. Life cycle costing requires information on the capital cost
of the project, its useful life, and annual O&M costs. Costs are then discounted over the lifetime of the
project using an appropriate discount rate. Life cycle costing can assist in setting design and construction
standards to minimize total costs over the project lifetime. For example, use of more durable pavement
increases construction costs but decreases O&M costs over the project lifetime.

Established methods and software are available to analyze these tradeoffs; see the following references:

Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model

Click here to read more information on the FHWA pamphlet on life-cycle costing?

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Benefits and Impacts

Construction, maintenance, and operating costs must be weighed against the benefits and other
impacts of the project. These may take the following forms and may be measured in the following ways.

Mobility benefits are measured in terms of travel time and operating cost savings for road users.
These include time and cost savings for personal travel, business travel, and freight movement. Cost
savings include vehicle operating costs (gasoline, wear-and-tear, etc.) as well as any tolls or other fees
collected. Accounting of mobility benefits should include benefits to new users who are "induced" to use
the road as a result of the improvement, as well as time and cost savings to existing users. Standard
economic techniques exist for valuing benefits to both existing and new road users; see references for
"Demand forecasting" above for more information.
 Safety benefits include reductions in crashes as a result of improved roadway design or safety
measures. Safety benefits can be estimated based on the projected reduction in crashes (based, for
example, on crash rates by roadway design type), in conjunction with data on the costs of crashes by
crash severity. Crash costs include both direct economic costs such as medical expenses and property
damage, and indirect costs such as pain and suffering. Crash costs vary significantly by level of severity
and it is important to distinguish, at a minimum, the number of crashes resulting in fatalities, injuries, or
property damage only.

Economic impacts are a result of reductions in travel time and cost, improvements in safety, and other
benefits of the road project that affect the cost of doing business. Economic impacts can result from two
sources: (1) cost savings to existing businesses through reductions in travel time and cost; and (2)
business expansion through the growth of existing businesses or the attraction of new businesses to an
area. Click here for more information on measuring and valuing economic benefits.

Environmental impacts include air quality, water quality, habitat destruction and fragmentation,
noise, and greenhouse gas emissions. The impacts of a road or highway project on water quality and
habitat are frequently negative but can be mitigated to some extent through appropriate design and
construction techniques. Click here for more information on environmental mitigation of roadway
projects. Air quality, greenhouse gas, and noise impacts, which result from vehicle operations, also may
be negative as a result of increased traffic on the roadway. These can be mitigated most effectively
through regulation of vehicle technology, including emissions controls, fuel efficiency standards, and
noise standards. They can also be mitigated through provision of high-quality service by alternative, less
environmentally damaging modes of transport such as public transportation, railroad, and non-
motorized transport.

Other impacts may include factors such as the social impacts on a community of a new road or
highway project. For example, construction of a highway may improve the delivery of services to a rural
village but may also bring about community changes due to increased traffic. Where a project will
significantly impact a community, a qualitative assessment of the nature of these impacts should be
considered in assessing the benefits and costs of the project.

In addition to examining total impacts it is also important to examine the distribution of impacts (for
example, who benefits and who is negatively impacted.) Assuring an equitable distribution of benefits
may be important from a local or national policy standpoint. Geographic equity is one aspect, e.g.,
ensuring that all regions of a country benefit from road and highway investments, and that rural as well
as urban areas benefit. Equity among social classes may also be important, e.g., it may be important to
ensure that economic opportunities reach those for whom existing conditions are poor. Mechanisms for
funding roads should also be fair in the sense that those who are financing the project are also those
who are benefiting from the road improvements.
For additional guidance on evaluating and comparing the benefits and impacts of highway projects, see
Item 8 in the "Selected References" section of this document.

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Selected References

Road Maintenance Management Systems in Developing Countries. 1995. Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, Paris, France, Road Transport and Intermodal Linkages Research
Programme. Available at the OECD On-line Bookstore. Code: 771995011P1, ISBN: 92-64-14300-9.

Manual of Transportation Engineering Studies. 1994. Institute of Transportation Engineers. H. Douglas

Robertson, ed. Available at the ITE On-line Bookstore. Item TB-012. Use document title as the search
criteria.

AASHTO Guidelines for Traffic Data Programs. 1992. American Association of State Highway and
Transportation Officials. Available at the ITE On-line Bookstore. Item LP-329. Use document title as the
search criteria.

Markow, M.J. et al. 1994. Role of Highway Maintenance in Integrated Management Systems. National
Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), Report 263, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Available at the Transportation Research Board on-line Bookstore. Book Code: NR363, ISBN: 0-309-
05361-7.

Transportation 25 (2):147-167. May 1998. Kluwer Academic Publishers.Available from the Kluwer
Academic Publishers Web site.

Transport Surveys: Raising the Standard. Proceedings of an International Conference on Transport

Survey Quality and Innovation May 24-30, 1997, Grainau, Germany. Click here to display or download
this document from the Transportation Research Board Web site.
 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand. National
Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 388, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
(1997). Available at the Transportation Research Board on-line Bookstore. Book Code: NR388, ISBN: 0-
309-06059-1.

Highway Economic Requirements Systems (HERS) documentation. 1992. Contact E. Ross Crichton, US
Federal Highway Administration, e-mail Ross.Chrichton@fhwa.dot.gov. Available at the TRIS Web site or
the Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, DC 20402-9325. TRIS File
HRIS.H.9204, ID: 00627362, ISSN: 000333735.