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They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on September 20-22, 2018. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 98%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 2%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
100%
100%
100% 100% 100% 100%
98% 98% 97%
95% 95%
94% Raise interest rates: 100%
92%
90%
88%
80%
60%
40%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
27 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
'16 '17 '18
Oct 0%
Nov 0%
Dec 96%
Jan '19 2%
Feb 0%
Average:
Mar 2%
December
Apr 0% 2018
May 0%
Jun 0%
Jul 0%
Aug 0%
Sep 0%
Oct 0%
After
Oct '19
0%
3.89
3.74
3.50
3.21
3.00
2.86 2.84
Average
1.50
1.00
Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
Survey Dates
60%
Approve 52%
52%
50% 49%
45%
44%
40%
41%
Disapprove
18%
30%
Strongly
24%
Disapprove
11%
20% 20% 17%
18% 18%
19%
14% 15%
16%
13%
11%
10% 8% 12%
11% 9%
5% Strongly
Approve Neutral 9%
9%
0%
Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25
3%
Increase 5%
4%
62%
Decrease 59%
59%
35%
Little or
32%
no effect
35%
0%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
2%
5%
Increase 7%
4%
49%
Decrease 54%
52%
46%
Little or
34%
no effect
39%
0%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New
three-party 83%
NAFTA deal
U.S. deal
only with 4%
Mexico
U.S. deal
only with 0%
Canada
Existing
NAFTA
deal 7%
remains
in place
Don't
know/ 7%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Better
for the 53%
U.S.
Worse
for the 20%
U.S.
The
same
for the 22%
U.S.
Don't
know/ 4%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A
short-term
bargaining 51%
tool
Long-term
protectionist
measures
to increase
the ability 27%
of U.S.
industries
to compete
Don't
know/ 22%
unsure
9. How have your 2018 and 2019 forecasts for GDP and
inflation been affected by recently enacted U.S. tariffs
and retaliatory tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as
incremental change of forecast in percentage points)
Average responses:
Richard
Clarida,
Fed 11% 64% 14% 11%
Vice Chair
Randal
Quarles,
Vice Chair 21% 63% 5% 12%
for Bank
Supervision
Raphael
Bostic,
Atlanta 9% 43% 27% 20%
Fed Pres
Mary Daly,
San Fran 7% 19% 40% 35%
Fed Pres
Michelle
Bowman, 5% 51% 44%
Nominee
Marvin
Goodfriend, 48% 17% 12% 24%
Nominee
Nellie
Liang, 5% 53% 2% 40%
Nominee
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know/unsure 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Is signaling
a recession 0%
Is close to
signaling a 17%
recession
Does not
signal a 76%
recession
Don't know/
unsure 7%
13. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3038
3005
2975
3,000
2946
2928
2879 2956
2937
2862 2892
2,800 2839 2848
2775 2787
2708
2,600
2588 2593
2555 2564 2562
2480
2,400 2453
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
2017 2018
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.54%3.54%3.51%3.53%
3.44%3.43% 3.44% 3.45%
3.5%
3.37%
3.24% 3.24%
3.22% 3.23%
3.17% 3.17%3.15%
3.05%
3.06% 3.07%
3.03%
2.95%
3.0%
2.84%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
2017 2018
Survey Dates
15. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
3.1%
2.98% 3.01%
2.87% 2.93%
2.86%
2.90%
2.9%
2.95% 2.98%
2.85% 2.92%
2.73%
2.70% 2.70% 2.87%
2.67% 2.68%
2.7% 2.80%
2.60% 2.67%
2.56%
2.49%
2.5% 2.54%
2.39%
2.34%
2.42% 2.32%
2.29%
2.3% 2.25% 2.24%
2.22% 2.19%
2.17%
2.15% 2.14% 2.23%
2.07% 2.06%
2.06%
2.02%
1.87%
1.9%
1.81%
1.78%
1.7%
1.69%
1.5%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
2017 2018
16. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30% 3.29%
3.20% 3.24%
3.17%
3.27%
3.11% 3.18% 3.21%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85% 2.73%
2.79% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Jul 28
Jul 26
Sep 20
Jul 25
Sep 19
Jul 31
Sep 25
Apr 28
Apr 26
Sept 16
May 2
May 1
Jan 26 '16
Aug 20
Dec 16
Jan 27, '15
Mar 17
Aug 25
Dec 15
Mar 15
Aug 24
Dec 13
Jan 31 '17
Mar 14
Dec 12
Jan 30 '18
Mar 20
Jun 16
Jun 14
Nov 1
Jun 13
Jun 12
Oct 28
Oct 27
Oct 31
Survey Dates
17. Will the Fed raise rates above its neutral rate to slow
the U.S. economy?
62%
Yes 53%
58%
32%
No 43%
33%
5%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
9%
3.2%
2.99%
3.0% 2.94% 2.94%
2.93%
2.85%
2.85% 2.82%
2.80%
2.78%
2.8% +2.76%+2.75%
2.76%
2.61% 2.72%
2.70%
2.6% +2.62% 2.66% 2.66%
2.60%
+2.58%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 31 Jan 30
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25
'17 '18
2018 +2.76%+2.75%+2.62%+2.58%+2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85% 2.94% 2.76% 2.82% 2.93% 2.94% 2.99%
2019 2.85% 2.70% 2.72% 2.66% 2.80% 2.66% 2.78%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.54%
2.50% 2.51%
2.48%
2.46%
2.44% 2.45%
2.41%
2.48%
2.4% 2.45%
2.38% 2.42%
2.40%
2.15% 2.14%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12 31 25
2017 2018
Survey Dates
2018 2019
4.00%
3.84%
3.81%
3.80%
3.74%
3.79%
3.67%
3.60% 3.64%
3.40%
3.20%
3.00%
Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1 0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
Jun 12 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Jul 31 5 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 8 0
Page 27 of 38
2
European recession/financial crisis
2
Tax/regulatory policies
Other responses:
Slow job growth
9
Inflation
0
Debt ceiling
2
Deficits
2
Rise in interest rates
7
Geopolitical risks
•
2
Immigration policy
Trump's temperament
0
Overvaluation of equities
4
Worker shortage
2
2
Other
2
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
September 25, 2018
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 14.4%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9% 25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9%24.1% 23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20%20.3% 18.9%
18.8%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
19.1%
16.9% 16.9% 16.8%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.5%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 14.4%
13.7%
13.0%
13.8%
14.3%
10%
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Feb-12
Apr-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Other
17%
Currencies
0%
Equities
15%
Comments: