XP Presidential Poll – Round 19

September, 2018
XP Presidential Poll - Details Political Analysis

Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)

Coverage: National
Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Polls
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of Error
May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2
May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -
June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 1,000 3.2
June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018 1,000 3.2
July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk4 Aug-20 to Aug-22 BR-07829/2018 1,000 3.2
August Wk5 Aug-27 to Aug-29 BR-07252/2018 1,000 3.2
September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk2 Sep-10 to Sep-12 BR-07277/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk3 Sep-17 to Sep-19 BR-02995/2018 2,000 2.2
September Wk4 Sep-24 to Sep-26 BR-00526/2018 2,000 2.2

All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here. 2
Voter profile: current week distribution Political Analysis

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

GENDER REGION
MALE 48% NORTH 8%
FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%
AGE SOUTHEAST 43%
16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%
18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%
35 TO 54 YO 37% TYPE OF CITY
+55 YO 29% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%
OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 10%
WORKING 58% COUNTRY TOWNS 66%
NOT WORKING 42% CITY SIZE
INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 25%
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 28% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 12%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 37% > 500.000 HAB 29%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 11% RELIGION
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 3% CATHOLIC 61%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 21%
EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 9%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 8% SPIRITTUALISM 4%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 28% ADVENTIST 1%
HIGH SCHOOL 42% OTHER 4%
HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 3

Highlights Political Analysis

The 19th round of XP Presidential Poll shows that Fernando Haddad (PT) remained in his
upward trend, rising from 16% to 21%. He narrowed to 7% the gap to Jair Bolsonaro (PSL),
who held 28% of vote intentions.

The second round scenarios were negative for Bolsonaro. He was three points ahead of
Haddad last week, and now the PT candidate is four points ahead of him (43% x 39%). In
the second round simulation, for the first time since the very beginning of the election
tracker, Haddad is the front-runner against Bolsonaro, which might leverage the “strategic
vote” power against the PSL candidate.

Regarding the “strategic vote”, Ciro Gomes (PDT) is now the best “second choice” for 14%
of voters, while 8% give that label to Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB).

Haddad finally became as well-known as all other major contenders. His rejection rate
stopped rising, while Bolsonaro’s, after two consecutive descents, climbed to 60%.

Voters were also asked whom they consider that would be the worst president for Brazil.
Both Haddad and Bolsonaro are now more rejected than last week, highlighting the
polarization of PT and PSL candidates.

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XP Poll Political Analysis

1. Electoral Scenarios

2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

5
Voting Intention - Spontaneous Political Analysis

September
Week 4

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 6

Scenario 1 Political Analysis

September
Week 4

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 7

Second option Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 8

Second option Political Analysis

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?
Choice in scenario 1
FERNANDO JAIR GERALDO MARINA CIRO ÁLVARO
UNDECIDED
2nd Option HADDAD BOLSONARO ALCKMIN SILVA GOMES DIAS
ÁLVARO DIAS 1% 10% 7% 2% 3% 0% 0%
CIRO GOMES 41% 6% 17% 21% 0% 13% 0%
FERNANDO HADDAD 0% 0% 6% 10% 35% 4% 0%
GERALDO ALCKMIN 7% 13% 0% 11% 11% 16% 0%
GUILHERME BOULOS 3% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 3% 4% 9% 0% 4% 4% 0%
JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 0% 12% 13% 7% 16% 0%
MARINA SILVA 11% 1% 11% 0% 11% 4% 0%
JOÃO AMOÊDO 0% 8% 10% 4% 2% 9% 0%
VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0%
CABO DACIOLO 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 4% 0%
DON'T KNOW 7% 8% 9% 6% 5% 4% 0%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 25% 46% 15% 28% 18% 22% 0%
HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 9

2nd Round Scenarios Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 10

2nd Round Scenarios Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 11

2nd Round Scenarios Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 12

Voter conviction Political Analysis

*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 13
Rejection Political Analysis

*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 14
Unfamiliarity Political Analysis

*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 15
Conviction, recognition and rejection. Political Analysis

September
Week 4

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T
VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Would Wouldn't Dont't Know Don'tKnow/
Could Vote Total
Surely Vote Vote Enough Didn'tAnswer
BOLSONARO 25% 10% 60% 4% 1% 100%
HADDAD 18% 15% 60% 5% 1% 100%
CIRO 14% 25% 54% 6% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 8% 20% 61% 8% 3% 100%
MARINA 6% 18% 68% 6% 1% 100%
AMÔEDO 6% 15% 44% 32% 2% 100%
A. DIAS 5% 17% 53% 25% 1% 100%

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 16

Expectation of Victory Political Analysis

September
Week 4

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 17

XP Poll Political Analysis

1. Electoral Scenarios

2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

18
Interest in the election Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 19

Veto Political Analysis

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 20

How the angry vote? Political Analysis

This week, 27% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.

MICRODATA
SPECIAL

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 21

 Vote migration Political Analysis

Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro

MICRODATA
SPECIAL

Vote Migration: 1st to 2nd round (% of total voters) Vote Migration: 1st to 2nd round (% of candidate´s voters)
FERNANDO JAIR N/BL/NL/DK FERNANDO JAIR N/BL/NL/DK
HADDAD BOLSONARO /DA HADDAD BOLSONARO /DA TOTAL
ÁLVARO DIAS 1% 1% 0% ÁLVARO DIAS 49% 31% 20% 100%
CIRO GOMES 8% 1% 2% CIRO GOMES 71% 9% 20% 100%
FERNANDO HADDAD 19% 1% 1% FERNANDO HADDAD 93% 5% 3% 100%
GERALDO ALCKMIN 3% 3% 3% GERALDO ALCKMIN 33% 34% 33% 100%
GUILHERME BOULOS 0% 0% 0% GUILHERME BOULOS 71% 0% 29% 100%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 0% 0% HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 54% 23% 23% 100%
JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 28% 1% JAIR BOLSONARO 0% 98% 2% 100%
MARINA SILVA 4% 0% 1% MARINA SILVA 73% 5% 22% 100%
JOÃO AMOÊDO 2% 1% 1% JOÃO AMOÊDO 49% 16% 35% 100%
VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 0% VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 100% 100%
CABO DACIOLO 1% 0% 0% CABO DACIOLO 82% 0% 18% 100%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 0% JOÃO GOULART FILHO 33% 0% 67% 100%
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 0% JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 100% 0% 0% 100%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 0% DIDN'T ANSWER 25% 50% 25% 100%
DON'T KNOW 1% 2% 2% DON'T KNOW 17% 43% 40% 100%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 4% 2% 6% NONE/BLANK/NULL 31% 18% 51% 100%
Total 43% 39% 18%

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 22

Anti-petism Political Analysis

MICRODATA
SPECIAL

60% of voters claim they won’t

vote for any PT candidate.

However, when faced with a

2nd round scenario between
Haddad and Bolsonaro, 24% of
Haddad’s votes come from
those who said they wouldn’t
vote for any PT candidate.

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] . 23

Disclaimer Political Analysis

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or
severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is
confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

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 © GrupoXP
September 2018