n= 31 PERIODO DE RETORNO (Tr)

WEIBULL CALIFORNIA HAZEN TUKEY

m CAUDALES (n+1)/m n/m n/(m-0.5) (3n+1)/(3m+1)
1 130.12 32.00 31.00 62.00 23.50
2 120.42 16.00 15.50 20.67 13.43
3 117.31 10.67 10.33 12.40 9.40
4 115.03 8.00 7.75 8.86 7.23
5 109.73 6.40 6.20 6.89 5.88
6 98.61 5.33 5.17 5.64 4.95
7 96.79 4.57 4.43 4.77 4.27
8 90.44 4.00 3.88 4.13 3.76
9 89.86 3.56 3.44 3.65 3.36
10 89.08 3.20 3.10 3.26 3.03
11 82.97 2.91 2.82 2.95 2.76
12 81.99 2.67 2.58 2.70 2.54
13 81.29 2.46 2.38 2.48 2.35
14 81.02 2.29 2.21 2.30 2.19
15 80.34 2.13 2.07 2.14 2.04
16 74.44 2.00 1.94 2.00 1.92
17 72.70 1.88 1.82 1.88 1.81
18 68.21 1.78 1.72 1.77 1.71
19 68.04 1.68 1.63 1.68 1.62
20 67.41 1.60 1.55 1.59 1.54
21 66.68 1.52 1.48 1.51 1.47
22 64.04 1.45 1.41 1.44 1.40
23 63.79 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.34
24 61.95 1.33 1.29 1.32 1.29
25 60.87 1.28 1.24 1.27 1.24
26 60.81 1.23 1.19 1.22 1.19
27 57.96 1.19 1.15 1.17 1.15
28 56.90 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.11
29 54.99 1.10 1.07 1.09 1.07
30 51.09 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.03
31 49.72 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.00
 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS (m3/s)
Tr
D. NORMAL LOG. N. 2P LOG. N. 3P GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P
5 97.88 96.47 94.88 103.56 96.26
10 107.49 108.68 108.43 120.55 110.07
25 117.74 123.40 126.01 140.54 127.00
50 124.36 133.95 139.40 154.50 139.19
73 127.68 139.58 146.81 161.81 145.67
100 130.31 144.21 153.03 167.76 150.99
200 135.76 154.29 166.99 180.44 162.47

MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS - WEIBULL

200.00

180.00

160.00

140.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
0.50 5.00 50.00

Tr (años)
 GUMBEL 1
95.90
109.24
126.09
138.59
145.38
151.00
163.37
GAMMA 3P

OS - WEIBULL

Col umn B
D.
NORMAL
Loga ri th
mi c (D.
NORMAL)
LOG. N. 2P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 2P)
LOG. N. 3P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 3P)
GAMMA
2P

50.00 500.00
n= 31 PERIODO DE RETORNO (Tr)
WEIBULL CALIFORNIA HAZEN TUKEY
m CAUDALES (n+1)/m n/m n/(m-0.5) (3n+1)/(3m+1)
1 130.12 32.00 31.00 62.00 23.50
2 120.42 16.00 15.50 20.67 13.43
3 117.31 10.67 10.33 12.40 9.40
4 115.03 8.00 7.75 8.86 7.23
5 109.73 6.40 6.20 6.89 5.88
6 98.61 5.33 5.17 5.64 4.95
7 96.79 4.57 4.43 4.77 4.27
8 90.44 4.00 3.88 4.13 3.76
9 89.86 3.56 3.44 3.65 3.36
10 89.08 3.20 3.10 3.26 3.03
11 82.97 2.91 2.82 2.95 2.76
12 81.99 2.67 2.58 2.70 2.54
13 81.29 2.46 2.38 2.48 2.35
14 81.02 2.29 2.21 2.30 2.19
15 80.34 2.13 2.07 2.14 2.04
16 74.44 2.00 1.94 2.00 1.92
17 72.70 1.88 1.82 1.88 1.81
18 68.21 1.78 1.72 1.77 1.71
19 68.04 1.68 1.63 1.68 1.62
20 67.41 1.60 1.55 1.59 1.54
21 66.68 1.52 1.48 1.51 1.47
22 64.04 1.45 1.41 1.44 1.40
23 63.79 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.34
24 61.95 1.33 1.29 1.32 1.29
25 60.87 1.28 1.24 1.27 1.24
26 60.81 1.23 1.19 1.22 1.19
27 57.96 1.19 1.15 1.17 1.15
28 56.90 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.11
29 54.99 1.10 1.07 1.09 1.07
30 51.09 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.03
31 49.72 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.00
 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS (m3/s)
Tr
D. NORMAL LOG. N. 2P LOG. N. 3P GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P
5 97.88 96.47 94.88 103.56 96.26
10 107.49 108.68 108.43 120.55 110.07
25 117.74 123.40 126.01 140.54 127.00
50 124.36 133.95 139.40 154.50 139.19
73 127.68 139.58 146.81 161.81 145.67
100 130.31 144.21 153.03 167.76 150.99
200 135.76 154.29 166.99 180.44 162.47

MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS - CALIFORNIA

200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
0.50 5.00 50.00

Tr (años)
 GUMBEL 1
95.90
109.24
126.09
138.59
145.38
151.00
163.37
GAMMA 3P

ALIFORNIA

Col umn B
D.
NORMAL
Loga ri thm
i c (D.
NORMAL)
LOG. N. 2P
Loga ri thm
i c (LOG. N.
2P)
LOG. N. 3P
Loga ri thm
i c (LOG. N.
3P)
GAMMA
2P

00 500.00
n= 31 PERIODO DE RETORNO (Tr)
WEIBULL CALIFORNIA HAZEN TUKEY
m CAUDALES (n+1)/m n/m n/(m-0.5) (3n+1)/(3m+1)
1 130.12 32.00 31.00 62.00 23.50
2 120.42 16.00 15.50 20.67 13.43
3 117.31 10.67 10.33 12.40 9.40
4 115.03 8.00 7.75 8.86 7.23
5 109.73 6.40 6.20 6.89 5.88
6 98.61 5.33 5.17 5.64 4.95
7 96.79 4.57 4.43 4.77 4.27
8 90.44 4.00 3.88 4.13 3.76
9 89.86 3.56 3.44 3.65 3.36
10 89.08 3.20 3.10 3.26 3.03
11 82.97 2.91 2.82 2.95 2.76
12 81.99 2.67 2.58 2.70 2.54
13 81.29 2.46 2.38 2.48 2.35
14 81.02 2.29 2.21 2.30 2.19
15 80.34 2.13 2.07 2.14 2.04
16 74.44 2.00 1.94 2.00 1.92
17 72.70 1.88 1.82 1.88 1.81
18 68.21 1.78 1.72 1.77 1.71
19 68.04 1.68 1.63 1.68 1.62
20 67.41 1.60 1.55 1.59 1.54
21 66.68 1.52 1.48 1.51 1.47
22 64.04 1.45 1.41 1.44 1.40
23 63.79 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.34
24 61.95 1.33 1.29 1.32 1.29
25 60.87 1.28 1.24 1.27 1.24
26 60.81 1.23 1.19 1.22 1.19
27 57.96 1.19 1.15 1.17 1.15
28 56.90 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.11
29 54.99 1.10 1.07 1.09 1.07
30 51.09 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.03
31 49.72 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.00
 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS (m3/s)
Tr
D. NORMAL LOG. N. 2P LOG. N. 3P GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P
5 97.88 96.47 94.88 103.56 96.26
10 107.49 108.68 108.43 120.55 110.07
25 117.74 123.40 126.01 140.54 127.00
50 124.36 133.95 139.40 154.50 139.19
73 127.68 139.58 146.81 161.81 145.67
100 130.31 144.21 153.03 167.76 150.99
200 135.76 154.29 166.99 180.44 162.47

MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS - HAZEN

200.00

180.00

160.00

140.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
0.50 5.00 50.00

Tr (años)
 GUMBEL 1
95.90
109.24
126.09
138.59
145.38
151.00
163.37
LOG. N. 2P

COS - HAZEN

Col umn B
D.
NORMAL
Loga ri th
mi c (D.
NORMAL)
LOG. N. 2P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 2P)
LOG. N. 3P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 3P)
GAMMA
2P

50.00 500.00
n= 31 PERIODO DE RETORNO (Tr)
WEIBULL CALIFORNIA HAZEN TUKEY
m CAUDALES (n+1)/m n/m n/(m-0.5) (3n+1)/(3m+1)
1 130.12 32.00 31.00 62.00 23.50
2 120.42 16.00 15.50 20.67 13.43
3 117.31 10.67 10.33 12.40 9.40
4 115.03 8.00 7.75 8.86 7.23
5 109.73 6.40 6.20 6.89 5.88
6 98.61 5.33 5.17 5.64 4.95
7 96.79 4.57 4.43 4.77 4.27
8 90.44 4.00 3.88 4.13 3.76
9 89.86 3.56 3.44 3.65 3.36
10 89.08 3.20 3.10 3.26 3.03
11 82.97 2.91 2.82 2.95 2.76
12 81.99 2.67 2.58 2.70 2.54
13 81.29 2.46 2.38 2.48 2.35
14 81.02 2.29 2.21 2.30 2.19
15 80.34 2.13 2.07 2.14 2.04
16 74.44 2.00 1.94 2.00 1.92
17 72.70 1.88 1.82 1.88 1.81
18 68.21 1.78 1.72 1.77 1.71
19 68.04 1.68 1.63 1.68 1.62
20 67.41 1.60 1.55 1.59 1.54
21 66.68 1.52 1.48 1.51 1.47
22 64.04 1.45 1.41 1.44 1.40
23 63.79 1.39 1.35 1.38 1.34
24 61.95 1.33 1.29 1.32 1.29
25 60.87 1.28 1.24 1.27 1.24
26 60.81 1.23 1.19 1.22 1.19
27 57.96 1.19 1.15 1.17 1.15
28 56.90 1.14 1.11 1.13 1.11
29 54.99 1.10 1.07 1.09 1.07
30 51.09 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.03
31 49.72 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.00
 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS (m3/s)
Tr
D. NORMAL LOG. N. 2P LOG. N. 3P GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P
5 97.88 96.47 94.88 103.56 96.26
10 107.49 108.68 108.43 120.55 110.07
25 117.74 123.40 126.01 140.54 127.00
50 124.36 133.95 139.40 154.50 139.19
73 127.68 139.58 146.81 161.81 145.67
100 130.31 144.21 153.03 167.76 150.99
200 135.76 154.29 166.99 180.44 162.47

MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS - TUKEY

200.00

180.00

160.00

140.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
0.50 5.00 50.00

Tr (años)
 GUMBEL 1
95.90
109.24
126.09
138.59
145.38
151.00
163.37
GAMMA 2P

COS - TUKEY

Col umn B
D.
NORMAL
Loga ri th
mi c (D.
NORMAL)
LOG. N. 2P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 2P)
LOG. N. 3P
Loga ri th
mi c (LOG.
N. 3P)
GAMMA
2P

50.00 500.00
n= 31
CAUDALES
DIAS CAUDALES ACUMULADOS
ANÁLISIS
1 130.12 130.12
3000.00
2 120.42 250.54
3 117.31 367.85
4 115.03 482.88
2500.00
5 109.73 592.61 f(x) = - 1.0355364546x^2 + 109.3057633229x + 5
6 98.61 691.22 R² = 0.9996898318

CAUDALES ACUMULADOS (m3/s)

7 96.79 788.01 2000.00
8 90.44 878.45
9 89.86 968.31
10 89.08 1057.39 1500.00
11 82.97 1140.36
12 81.99 1222.35
13 81.29 1303.64 1000.00

14 81.02 1384.66
15 80.34 1465.00
500.00
16 74.44 1539.44
17 72.70 1612.14
18 68.21 1680.35
0.00
19 68.04 1748.39 0 5 10 15 20
20 67.41 1815.80
AÑOS
21 66.68 1882.48
22 64.04 1946.52
23 63.79 2010.31
24 61.95 2072.26 LOS REGISTROS SE AJUSTAN A UNA FUNCIÓN DE TIPO CUADRÁTIC
25 60.87 2133.13
26 60.81 2193.94
27 57.96 2251.90
28 56.90 2308.80
29 54.99 2363.79
30 51.09 2414.88
31 49.72 2464.60
 ANÁLISIS DE CONSISTENCIA

6x^2 + 109.3057633229x + 55.8906162403

REGISTROS
Pol ynomi a l (REGISTROS)

15 20 25 30 35 40

AÑOS

CIÓN DE TIPO CUADRÁTICA CON UN 99.97 %

 n= 31 PROBABILIDAD (P)
m CAUDALES WEIBULL CALIFORNIA HAZEN TUKEY
1 49.72 3.13 3.23 1.61 4.26
2 51.09 6.25 6.45 4.84 7.45
3 54.99 9.38 9.68 8.06 10.64
4 56.90 12.50 12.90 11.29 13.83
5 57.96 15.63 16.13 14.52 17.02
6 60.81 18.75 19.35 17.74 20.21
7 60.87 21.88 22.58 20.97 23.40
8 61.95 25.00 25.81 24.19 26.60
9 63.79 28.13 29.03 27.42 29.79
10 64.04 31.25 32.26 30.65 32.98
11 66.68 34.38 35.48 33.87 36.17
12 67.41 37.50 38.71 37.10 39.36
13 68.04 40.63 41.94 40.32 42.55
14 68.21 43.75 45.16 43.55 45.74
15 72.70 46.88 48.39 46.77 48.94
16 74.44 50.00 51.61 50.00 52.13
17 80.34 53.13 54.84 53.23 55.32
18 81.02 56.25 58.06 56.45 58.51
19 81.29 59.38 61.29 59.68 61.70
20 81.99 62.50 64.52 62.90 64.89
21 82.97 65.63 67.74 66.13 68.09
22 89.08 68.75 70.97 69.35 71.28
23 89.86 71.88 74.19 72.58 74.47
24 90.44 75.00 77.42 75.81 77.66
25 96.79 78.13 80.65 79.03 80.85
26 98.61 81.25 83.87 82.26 84.04
27 109.73 84.38 87.10 85.48 87.23
28 115.03 87.50 90.32 88.71 90.43
29 117.31 90.63 93.55 91.94 93.62
30 120.42 93.75 96.77 95.16 96.81
31 130.12 96.88 100.00 98.39 100.00

X= 79.50 X+S= 101.30

S= 21.80 X-S= 57.71

Xi F(Z) = P
101.30 84.00
79.50 50.00
57.71 16.00

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA WEIBULL

140.00

120.00

100.00
 PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA WEIBULL
140.00

120.00

100.00

CAUDALES (m3/s)
80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1.00 10.00 100.00

PROBABILIDAD (%)

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA CALIFORNIA

140.00

120.00

100.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1.00 10.00 100.00

PROBABILIDAD (%)

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA HAZEN

140.00

120.00

100.00
 PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA HAZEN
140.00

120.00

100.00

CAUDALES (m3/s)
80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1.00 10.00 100.

PROBABILIDAD (%)

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE PARA TUKEY

140.00

120.00

100.00
CAUDALES (m3/s)

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1.00 10.00 100

PROBABILIDAD (%)

TODOS LOS MÉTODOS SE AJUSTAN A LOS REGISTROS, SIN EMBARGO PARA EL ESTUDIO Y ANALISIS, SE TUVO
STE PARA WEIBULL
STE PARA WEIBULL

REGISTROS - WEIBULL
F(Z)

100.00

E PARA CALIFORNIA

REGISTROS - CALIFORNIA
F(Z)

100.00

USTE PARA HAZEN

USTE PARA HAZEN

REGISTROS - HAZEN
F(Z)

100.00

USTE PARA TUKEY

REGISTROS - TUKEY
F(Z)

100.00

STUDIO Y ANALISIS, SE TUVO EN CUENTA EL MÉTODO DE WEIBULL.

 CAUDALES MÁXIMOS (m3/s)
Tr
D. NORMAL LOG. N. 2P LOG. N. 3P GAMMA 2P GAMMA 3P

5 97.88 96.47 94.88 103.56 96.26

10 107.49 108.68 108.43 120.55 110.07
25 117.74 123.4 126.01 140.54 127
50 124.36 133.95 139.4 154.5 139.19
73 127.68 139.58 146.81 161.81 145.67
100 130.31 144.21 153.03 167.76 150.99
200 135.76 154.29 166.99 180.44 162.47
 INFRAESTRUCTURA: PRESA (Tr = 73 AÑOS)

GUMBEL 1 PERIODO DE RETORNO MÉTODO DE AJUSTE

95.9 WEIBULL GAMMA 3P

109.24 CALIFORNIA GAMMA 3P
126.09 HAZEN LOG. N. 2P
138.59 TUKEY GAMMA 2P
145.38
151
163.37
ESA (Tr = 73 AÑOS)
CAUDAL DE DISEÑO
(m3/s)
145.67
145.67
139.58
161.81