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Globalization is as old as humanity and its acceleration
by capitalism has generated immense inequalities. No
social or political struggle to combat inequality has any
seriousness or validity if it does not have as its ultimate
objective the end of capitalism.
We recently observed purchasing power differences in Portugal and its evolution in the
period 2004/13, and how the policy of collective impoverishment to satisfy the gluttony
of the financial system was reflected in the different parts of the country. We will now
look at inequalities in Europe and its dynamics through population changes, as a
means of gauging whether what happened in Portugal was an isolated episode or is
part of the constant formation of centers and peripheries inherent to capitalistic
economic and social structure.
A territory’s population variations reveal the attraction or repulsion that territory exerts
on humans. This can occur because of more or less basic socio economic reasons or
due to extreme causes such as war or calamities, some more natural than others.
In the most flattering situations, those territories retain and allow greater longevity to
their population, their regular reproduction and, furthermore, arrivals of people from
1
This is the first of three documents on the inequalities, mainly demographic, in Europe. The three chapters in
Portuguese language can be found below:
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/04/centro-e-periferias-na-europa-dinamica.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/06/centro-e-periferias-na-europa-2.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/06/centro-e-periferias-3-portugal-uma.html
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 1
other places where living conditions are comparatively less attractive. When life
becomes difficult and opportunities become worse than elsewhere, the birth rate falls,
in step with rising emigration, and that opportunities deficit may promotes population
stagnation or fall. These forms of mobility have happened throughout history, having
had individuals, families, or large masses of people as protagonists, with peaceful, or
violent, or invasive, or conquering ways, and also as a result of environmental
changes. Basically, it is through this miscegenation that humanity developed, born of
the cross breading of Neanderthalensis and Homo sapiens.
We highlight some essential aspects in order to mark the path that we have been
treading:
Roughly between the end of World War I and the end of the Second World War,
the Western world lived through periods of depression, especially the Great
Depression in the US, with the generation of large pockets of unemployment and
poverty, in addition to the immense destruction of human lives and infrastructure,
caused by those conflicts;
Between World War II and the oil shock in 1973 a period of economic growth –
it is the pinnacle of Keynesianism – was established with great involvement of states
in creating infrastructure and social welfare institutions, under the so called
European social model that, however, is not uniform since it has variants within
Europe (Scandinavian and Rhine) and outside of it (Japanese) and in which trade
unions played a significant role. To the above one must add, in that period, the
creation of the first multilateral institutions that have started and shaped what came
to be called globalization – the Bretton Woods agreements, the dollar as the
dominant currency, the IMF/World Bank, the GATT (now WTO), the EEC as a lever
for European integration, NATO and its variants outside the Atlantic scenario;
The depletion of this model came when the impact of the recovery from the
destruction of the war became irrelevant and with the end of cheap energy, the
emergence of environmental issues, inflation, postcolonial war in Indochina, and an
increased affirmation of the so-called Third World. A new capitalist paradigm –
neoliberalism – has since been affirmed, one whose initial deployment will remain
linked to the "humanitarian" Pinochet / CIA / Milton Friedman coalition in Chile and
to Thatcher’s and Reagan’s anti-social policies;
The economic growth limitations reduced the expectations about the continuity
of technological innovation and multinational’s investment in them leading to an
increased dependency, in that area, of those created under the military umbrella,
such as the internet and information technologies in general, whose role clearly
marks the most recent decades. The East-West competition increased with the
development of the arm’s race, as destructive as dangerous, which came to
contribute to the collapse of the so called Eastern bloc and its state capitalism, with
the rapid recycling of its politicians into inflamed heralds of neoliberalism;
In the sequel, the financial markets merged into a single network based on the
deepening of information technologies, raising the indebtedness and speculation
levels to figures without any connection with reality, creating the bases for the
unsustainability of the financial environment that can be seen today. In turn, the
multinationals operating space has expanded, with branches sprouting all over as
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 2
mushrooms during wet weather and, for better exploitation of the low wages and
degrading working conditions imposed by regimes more or less dictatorial, invented
the relocation, corresponding to the segmentation of goods’ production by various
locations or countries, generating a logistics and transportation network, extremely
dense and heavy in terms of the capital involved as well as its environmental
damages;
This mobility is based on the variety and ease of traveling of human beings,
which increased the possibility of geography change for many millions of people,
despite the difficulties to those movements placed by the States, though guards,
controls, and border walls and nets. The political classes and their police forces can
only seek to track, decipher and place obstacles to mobility but can never nullify the
huge creativity of the poor, generated by their great drive to live. Still on this topic,
one needs to add, because of the inhumanity and dram it evidences, the case of the
millions of displaced persons and refugees from the Middle East, left to their own
devices or exploited as cheap labor in "host" countries that, “coincidentally”, have
very high responsibilities in the wars and the atrocities, which is common knowledge.
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 3
2 - Possible alternatives for peripheral states
The EU, as a pioneering place of the historically recent globalization, has since its
inception aimed at freedom of movement of capital, goods and people, so that the
market be extended – read: to provide capitalist accumulation – with minimal
restrictions of "context", legislative, administrative, social, cultural, while reducing
national idiosyncrasies. The national and local capitalists, especially those in the
peripheral or with weaker economic structures nation-states, are left with the following
alternatives, particularized for the Portuguese case:
Business capture through privileged links with the state and the local political
class (where corruption is key), which can be hampered by the massive invasive
drives of global capital, as hinted by those present in the dark TTIP and CETA cases.
It is the desire for nationalist strength, in a post-Salazarist logic implicitly defended by
the Keynesian augurs, defenders of a state owned currency and domestic
quantitative easings, tempered by the convenient repression of those rebelling
against inflation;
The subordinate insertion (or the pure and simple integration of the technical
and worker force assets) into the business networks of the large companies
headquartered at the Center or multinationals – this is the logic followed by the
Passos government and followed with some restraint by Costa, with the added
difficulty of Portugal not being of special interest to multinationals, either as a
producer or as a consumer; that is, Portugal tends to be seen, mainly, as a
complement to the Spanish market;
Hence the continuation of the process of reducing the role of nation-states in the
European and world space , especially of small and medium-sized ones, to large
municipalities, level 1 NUTs in the phraseology of Brussels, vocationally tending to
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 4
exercise the puncture tax, the monopoly of violence (courts, police, legislative coercion
and rules) to ensure the presence of sad Rambos in the Nato wars, to buy military junk
from suzerain powers’ industry, to maintain the financial system fattening debt service
or a social assistance that sustains meekness in the plebs and, finally, to guarantee the
flag’s presence at international meetings, or the national anthem at the soccer national
team’s matches, for the pride of the patriots.
These various ongoing processes, inherent to the dominant production mode, originate
a very complex matrix of population movements and changes in the classification of
regions as people attracting or repelling. As is known, people will not move to other
than the usual places if they do not have a marked level of discomfort and
disenchantment; and the distance or risks they are willing to take are directly
proportional to their unhappiness. From a demographic point of view these dynamics
are continuously restructuring the space, setting up centers and peripheries,
confluence areas for people and activities and zones of exclusion and abandonment.
The evolution of the population in the various regions of the present EU space during a
relatively broad period of time (in this case around 25 years) thus gives clear
indications about the formation of these central or peripheral territories. This is in spite
of the transfer of public financial resources, made in the name of territorial cohesion
and the approximation of living conditions among all those who live in the EU; but, in
reality, aiming primarily at the flow of goods and services, better access to raw
materials, the centralization of capital, and labor exploitation; in short, all the
motivations inherent in the capitalist production mode.
For the 28 EU countries, we have observed those with decreases in population in each
of the five-year periods and measured the representativeness of the sum of their
populations in the Community total:
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 5
These elements reveal:
The cases with some success in the demographic evolution, in the last periods,
are the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Slovakia.
In this context, the populations in regression increased from 13.7% in 1995 to around
21% in 2000 and 2005 due to the inclusion of Poland; to 33.5% in 2010 with the entry
of Germany into the group; and to 46.2% in 2015 with the reinforcement constituted by
the countries victims of the exorcisms of the financial capital, in the south edge.
More broadly, EU countries can be allocated according to the average values (in %) for
population trends in the five-year periods:
Among the countries having higher average population growth, we intend to highlight
the similarities and differences between those involved in banking or deficit "adjustment
programs". All of them show sharp declines in population growth rates over the last five
years, with the exception of Italy where there has been a steady positive trend over the
last 25 years; and among those, Greece, Portugal and Spain have population
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 6
regression in 2010/15. On the other hand, the demographic growth in Cyprus and
Ireland in all the years before the crisis and in Spain in the first decade of the century is
remarkable.
In general – with the notable exception of Germany – the majority of cases of higher
population growth happen in the EU’s richest countries, particularly Luxembourg, in
those where the of recent years’ crisis (2010/2015) had little effect on the population
growth pace (France, Denmark, the Netherlands and Great Britain), or did not prevent
the continuation of the increases (Belgium, Italy, Austria, Finland and Sweden).
Emigration bound for those richer countries has great responsibilities in what was
stated above, demonstrating that the highest density of productive structures and a
higher economic dynamism — even in the global context of anemic GDP growth rates
– attract people of areas where the economic and social situation is much worse.
Those are the cases of war (Libya, sub-Saharan Africa, Sudan ...), an essentially
economy related emigration that, more recently, blended with the multitudes of
refugees victims of the total disorganization fostered by Western strategic interests in
the Middle East.
Countries with declining populations do not have the euro as currency or have recently
joined the euro, as is the case of the three Baltic countries. Among the nations with
mediocre growth two founders of the euro zone (Germany and Portugal) are included,
others having few years within the same (Slovenia since 2007 and Slovakia after 2009)
and the Czech Republic which keeps its own currency. Countries with average
population growth in the 25 years of observation are founders of the Eurozone in 1999
(Greece, which was integrated in the same two years later) as well as Britain and
Denmark, that maintain their national currencies. Finally, the countries with the highest
population increases are all members of the euro from the start or from 2008 (Malta
and Cyprus).
2
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2014/07/portugal-deve-sair-do-euro-sim-ou-nao-1.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2014/08/portugal-deve-sair-do-euro-sim-ou-nao-2.html
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2014/09/a-nao-solucao-com-um-novo-escudo-1.html
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 7
4 - The formation of inequalities in Europe - 2
What was stated before on the establishment of central and peripheral areas within the
European framework, particularly in the EU space concerns will enriched, sharpened, if
we consider the territorial division in NUT-2 regions. We highlight some conclusions
from the following table:
The number of regions with population declines between 1995 (19.3% of the
total) and 2000 (39.4%), more than doubles, the main contributions coming from
countries such as Germany, Italy, Sweden, Great Britain, and the inclusion of Poland
in this list only in 2000.
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 8
In the first decade of this century the number of regions with declining
population remains constant (about 30% of the total), with emphasis in the
contributions of Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria to which have
been added in the last five years Greece, Portugal and Spain, as the most relevant
cases;
This situation reveals that, on the eastern periphery, the integration of those
countries that have left state capitalism regimes is very distant from the eternal bliss
promised by the heralds of neoliberalism, in spite of community funds channeled or
foreign investors coming from the Occident that, naturally, perpetuated low wages
and corruption, destroying the cushions of social support that those peoples had
previously benefited from, a destruction that has been feeding the known fascist
drifts. Colonization, as a rule, integrates colonized peoples into spaces where
inequalities worsen and economic and social disintegrations increase.
When one observes, as in the following table, the population share of regions with
demographic regression, a more precise measure of the volume of those excluded by
the dynamics of the markets and their relevance in the various national plans is
obtained.
Cyprus (1) - - - - -
Luxembourg (1) - - - - -
Malta (1) - - - - -
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 9
United States (1) 100.0 100.0 - - -
Bulgaria, like the three ex-Soviet Baltic countries, shows that its entire territory
is in demographic regression, and that its borders are real gaps through which the
population goes. In 25 years, Bulgaria has lost 18% of its population and this
decrease reaches 1/3 of the total in Severozapaden region, while in Estonia the loss
is 16.4%, in Latvia 25.6% and in Lithuania 21%, so it can be said with heavy irony,
that there is a real ... territorial homogeneity. It is appropriate to ask what kind of
European integration is being made when, after a few years of implementation
(Baltic countries since 2004 and Bulgaria after 2007), a significant proportion of
those people are forced to emigrate and reduce their reproduction levels?
Belgium and Slovenia, in this century, no longer have within their territories
regions in demographic regression, contrary to what happens with Denmark, Ireland,
the Netherlands, and Slovakia; or even in Greece, in the area for which there is data.
Also notable are the cases of Italy, Britain and also of Sweden or Finland, where the
population in areas of regression is reduced.
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 10
the business of the financial system, which determine the actions of those
bureaucracies .
which are all around them, and which signify a huge range of territories to the
East, which runs from the Gulf of Finland to the Aegean and where demographic
regression is evident (no data being available for the whole of the Greek territory it is
considered very plausible that it should be displayed in red);
a large part of Germany where, essentially, only the southern regions are
excluded;
most of the territory of the Iberian Peninsula;
the most extensive region with strong or reasonable population growth develops
from the Bay of Biscay to southern Germany and from there to the south up to
Rome;
there are also other areas of equal demographic dynamism in southern
Scandinavia, England, and Belgium;
In many countries the areas of the respective capitals - Great Britain, Portugal
and Spain, all the Scandinavian countries, Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic,
Austria, Hungary, Romania, and Italy stand out as areas of relative population
attraction. These realities are the other side of the coin of population decline
desertification situations, phenomena of inequalities exacerbation.
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 11
5 – Notes for a solution
satisfaction of these needs as a social objective, which excludes the logic of the
private surplus and the enslavement by the work, releasing the humans to the
activities more suitable to each one, mainly, in the scope of leisure, culture, sport
and for the management of the affections
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 12
spheres of population according to the critical mass necessary to satisfaction of
the needs3;
abolition of the political classes while catalyzers and monopoly holders of the
decision power over the collective interest, and their replacement by direct
democracy processes, with responsibilities determined through (direct)
democratic choice in a transient and always (at any time) revocable way;
To be continued
http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/documents
https://pt.scribd.com/uploads
3
http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/para-um-novo-paradigma-poltico-a-re-criao-da-democracia
http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/sobre-a-democracia-a-democracia-ea-sua-usurpao-1a-parte
GRAZIA.TANTA@GMAIL.COM 18/04/2016 13