PREDICTION OF UNCERTAINTY IN RESERVOIR

PERFORMANCE FORECAST

P.R. BALLIN A.G. JOURNEL K. AZIZ

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JCPT92-04-05 BEST PAPER PRESENTED AT THE 42nd ANNUAL TECHNICAL MEETING Prediction of uncertainty in reservoir performance forecast P.R. BALLIN Stanford University/Petrobras A.G. JOURNEL and K. AZIZ Stanford University ABSTRACT Geostatistieal models are used to provide equally probable reser- voir descriptions that honour available data of a gi.ven reservot.r. The differences between these descriptions provide an indication of reservoir uncertainty due to lack of information. Transferring this uncertainty into the reservoir performance
forecast would re- quire flow simulation of a large number of these equally probable @tions. 7he spread in the response denvedfrom theflow si'mu- lotion measures its uncertainty. However, this approach is not a viable option in most @ because it would require excessive amounts of computer time. A new approach for transferring geological uncertainty is presented Each reservoir description is first ranked using a Fast Simulator (FS) rather than the Comprehensive flow Simulation (CS). A few selected dewriptions are then processed through the CS to generate an appro)amate probability
distribution of the reservoir production response. This approach yields a considerable saving i'n the computer time over the use of the CS alone This approach is tested using a waterflood example in a quarter of a five-spot. A standard black-oil type simulator is used as the CS and a tracer model is used as the F:S. Approximate probability distribution of production parameters (water breakthrough time, cumulative oil recovery and cumulative water-oil ratio) are gener- ated by selecting just five reservoir descriptions among 100, and processing them through the CS. T7ze approximation
is tested by running the CS on all 100 com to generate the reference probabil- ity distributions. The tracer concentration at the producer provided very good results with a 90% reduction in computer time over the use of the CS for all 100 descriptions. Introduction Many complex geological processes, such as sedimentation, erosion, migration, compaction and diagenesis produce complex spatial dis- tributions of reservoir properties. Rock type, porosity, permeabil- ity, fault occurrence, degree of cementation, and hydrocarbon saturation are some of these properties. However, the exact condi-
tions that result from these complex geological processes are never known exactly. This spatial distribution of reservoir properties gener- ally presents some degree of variability, often shared with a com- plex geological architecture. Moreover, m practice, samples obtained represent only a very small fraction of the whole reservoir volwne, resulting in incomplete knowledge about the reservoir structure at all scales. For all these rmons, it is not advisable to consider ordy Keywords: Geostatistics, Stochastic simulation, Reservoir stimulation, Produc- fion forecast, Uncertainty
assessment. Paper reviewed and accepted for publication by the Editorial 52 one single reservoir description or image and describe the spatial _ distribution of reservoir properties in a purely det c mmmer. Rather, a statistical treatment of the variables involved is desirable, one that recognizes the lack of knowledge or un ty associ- ated with any description selected. The
geological uncertainty can be detenmned through the chffer- ences between many equally probable reservoir descriptions gener- ated using 2 a geostatistical technique known as stochastic siinulation(I ). Each of the images reproduces a prior measure of spatial contmulty (covanances) and may be conditioned to honour available data, such as, core and log data, well test, geophysical and geological interpretation, etc. The variables that should mostly I)e described using probabhstic techniques are those that influence the amount, position, accessibility and flow of fluids through
the reservoir (e.g. lithofacies or flow unit distributions, porosity, perme- ability, and fault occurrences). Some d@ about geostamcal tech niques for reservoir description are given in the section on Probabilistic Reservoir Mode@. To transfer the geological uncertainty to the performance fore- cast un@ty, each of the equally probable reservoir @es must be processed through a usually computer-intensive Comprehensive flow Simulator (CS)(1). The CS can be any selected fmite differ- ence reservoir simulator dW takes mto account all aspects considered as important for the specific study.
It can be a large 2-D or 3-D model, a 2- or 3-phase model, and so on. That is usually not a viable option because of its Wgh cost. A new approach that yields the desired probability distributions with considerable saving in com- puter time is presented in the section on Transferring Uncertainty. The uncl@ty about the geological reservoir description impacts on the un ty m the predicted reservoir performance parameters (oil production rate and recovery, water-cut, water breakthrough time, gas-od ratio, etc.). If a penalty criterion for over- and under- estimation of the
performance parameters (known as loss function) is defined tbr a snac application, the es@te that minimizes the expected loss can be obtained from the previously derived proba- bility distribution of the reservoir performance parwneters(3,4). This type of risk analysis for reservoir management is briefly discussed in the section on Uncertainty Analysis. A waterflood case widi umt mobility ratio and no gravity or capfl- lary pressure effects was considered to test the proposed approach. The section on A Waterflood Example describes the results and some conclusions are presented
thereafter. Probabilistic Reservoir Modelling When pert.omung reservoir charact@tion, one is typically inter- ested in expanding the available data to develop a detailed picture of the entire reservoir including unsampled locations. This is the Board of The Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology. The Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology