Modeling and Simulation 1

1.1 Introduction:

This laboratory session will introduce the meaning of modeling

and simulation and list some definitions that related to the
simulation.

1.2 Objectives:

By the end of this laboratory session you should:

 Provide students with an opportunity to develop skills in

modeling and simulation.

 The students are expected to be able to solve real world

problems

 Understand the seven steps of conducting a simulation.

1.3 Content:

Introduction:
We are all aware to some extent of the importance of simulation
models in our world. Boeing

Corporation and Airbus Industries, for example, commonly build

simulation models of their proposed jet aircraft and then test the
aerodynamic properties of the models. Your local civil defense
organization may carry out rescue and evacuation practices as it
simulates the natural disaster conditions of a hurricane or
tornado. The U.S. Army simulates enemy attacks and defense
strategies in war games played on a computer. Business students
take courses that use management games to simulate realistic
competitive business situations. And thousands of business,
government, and service organizations develop simulation models
to assist in making decisions concerning inventory control,
maintenance scheduling, plant layout, investments, and sales
forecasting.

As a matter of fact, simulation is one of the most widely used

quantitative analysis tools.

Various surveys of the largest U.S. corporations reveal that over

half use simulation in corporate planning.

Simulation sounds like it may be the solution to all management

problems. This is, unfortunately, by no means true. Yet we think
you may find it one of the most flexible and fascinating of the
quantitative techniques in your studies. Let’s begin our discussion
of simulation with a simple definition.

To simulate is to try to duplicate the features, appearance, and

characteristics of a real system.

In this section we show how to simulate a business or

management system by building a mathematical model that
comes as close as possible to representing the reality of the
system.
We won’t build any physical models, as might be used in airplane
wind tunnel simulation tests. But just as physical model airplanes
are tested and modified under experimental conditions, our
mathematical models are used to experiment and to estimate the
effects of various actions. The idea behind simulation is to imitate
a real-world situation mathematically, then to study its properties
and operating characteristics, and, finally, to draw conclusions
and make action decisions based on the results of the simulation.
In this way, the real-life system is not touched until the
advantages and disadvantages of what may be a major policy
decision are first measured on the system’s model.

Using simulation, a manager should (1) define a problem, (2)

introduce the variables associated with the problem, (3) construct
a simulation model, (4) set up possible courses of action for
testing, (5) run the simulation experiment, (6) consider the results
(possibly deciding to modify the model or change data inputs),
and (7) decide what course of action to take. These steps
illustrated in Figure below.
 The problems tackled by simulation can range from very simple to
extremely complex, from bank teller lines to an analysis of the
U.S. economy. Although very small simulations can be conducted
by hand, effective use of this technique requires some automated
means of calculation, namely, a computer. Even large-scale
models, simulating perhaps years of business decisions, can be
handled in a reasonable amount of time by computer. Though
simulation is one of the oldest quantitative analysis tools (see the
History below), it was not until the introduction of computers in
the mid-1940s and early 1950s that it became a practical means
of solving management and military problems.

We begin this chapter with a presentation of the advantages and

disadvantages of simulation. An explanation of the Monte Carlo
method of simulation follows. Three sample simulations, in the
areas of inventory control, queuing, and maintenance planning,
are presented. Other simulation models besides the Monte Carlo
approach are also discussed briefly. Finally, the important role of
computers in simulation is illustrated.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation:

Simulation is a tool that has become widely accepted by managers for

several reasons:
1 It is relatively straightforward and flexible. It can be used to
compare many different scenarios side-by-side.
2 Recent advances in software make some simulation models very
easy to develop.
3 It can be used to analyze large and complex real-world situations
that cannot be solved by conventional quantitative analysis
models. For example, it may not be possible to build and solve a
mathematical model of a city government system that
incorporates important economic, social, environmental, and
political factors. Simulation has been used successfully to model
urban systems, hospitals, educational systems, national and state
economies, and even world food systems.
4 Simulation allows what-if? types of questions. Managers like to
know in advance what options are attractive. With a computer, a
manager can try out several policy decisions within a matter of
minutes.
5 Simulations do not interfere with the real-world system. It may be
too disruptive, for example, to experiment with new policies or
ideas in a hospital, school, or manufacturing plant. With
simulation, experiments are done with the model, not on the
system itself.
6 Simulation allows us to study the interactive effect of individual
components or variables to determine which ones are important.
7 “Time compression” is possible with simulation. The effect of
ordering, advertising, or other policies over many months or years
can be obtained by computer simulation in a short time.
8 Simulation allows for the inclusion of real-world complications
that most quantitative analysis models cannot permit. For
example, some queuing models require exponential or
Poisson distributions; some inventory and network models
require normality. But simulation can use any probability
distribution that the user defines; it does not require any
particular distribution.