Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
30%
30%
25% 24%
21%
20%
15%
15% 12%
10%
5%
0%
2004 2009 2014
Lok Sabha Election Year
Source: ADR
A widespread phenomenon
Number of political parties
Source: ECI
100
150
200
250
300
350
450
500
400
0
50
1952
1957
1962
1967
1971
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1996
1998
1999
Surge in political competition
2004
2009
2014
The end of hegemony
Number of parties Congress vote share
500 60.0%
450
50.0%
Number of political parties
400
1957
1962
1967
1971
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1996
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
Source: ECI
“Silent revolution”
60
50
Percent of Hindi-belt MPs
40
30
20
10
0
1952
1957
1962
1967
1971
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1996
2004
1998
1999
Source: Jaffrelot and Kumar (2009) Year
Institutional decay
Source: NCRB
Collapse of election finance regime
60
51
Percent of MLAs facing criminal cases
50 45
40 35 36 35
31
30
20
12
8
10
0
1984 1989 1991 1993 1996 2002 2007 2012
Year
25%
22%
Probability of Winning Election
20%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
No Cases At Least One Case
30%
25%
Probability of Winning Election
25%
20% 19%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
No cases At least 1 case At least 1 serious case
1800000
Average number of electors
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1996
1952
1957
1962
1967
1971
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
Year
Source: ECI
Increasing competitiveness
30
26.1
25 23.9
Average Margin of Victory (%)
19.5
20 18.2
14.8 15.4 15.2
15 13.7 14.1
11.9 12.2
10.0 10.0 9.7
10
0
1962
1967
1971
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1996
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
Year
Source: ECI
Rising expectations
The costs of democracy
Growing
competition
Parties want
“self- Increasingly
financing” costly elections
candidates
Parties
Finite party
motivated by
coffers
“rents”
Money talks
30%
26%
Probability of Winning Election
25%
20%
15%
12%
10%
5% 4%
1% 1%
0%
Bottom 2nd 3rd 4th Top quintile
quintile
Source: Vaishnav (2015)
From money to “muscle”
Increasingly
costly
elections
Criminal
candidates Finite party
have access to coffers
finance
Party elites
Parties
prioritize “self-
motivated by
financing”
“rents”
candidates
The merits of money & “muscle”
20% 19%
18%
Proportion with Criminal Cases
16%
14% 13%
12%
10% 9%
8% 7%
6%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Bottom 2nd 3rd 4th Top quintile
quintile
Candidate wealth quintile
Source: Vaishnav (2015)
Moving beyond money
Not facing serious cases Facing serious cases
45% 42%
Probability of Winning Election (%)
40%
35%
30% 26%
25% 24%
20%
15%
11% 11%
10%
5% 4%
5%
1% 2% 0%
0%
Bottom quintile 2nd 3rd 4th Top quintile
Candidate wealth quintile
Source: Vaishnav (2015)
3. Why do voters vote for
criminal candidates?
Why is this man a success story?
Anant Singh, three-time member of the Bihar state assembly from Mokama
constituency and well-known strongman
Criminality as credibility
The Bihar case
• Redistribution
– Willingness and ability to bend rules to skew
benefits to co-ethnic base
• Coercion
– Ability to use reputation to coerce rivals in Politics of dignity
context of multi-ethnic competition
Credibility grounded in politics
of dignity and self-respect
• Social insurance
– Capability to act as de facto social safety net
• Dispute resolution
– Enhanced capacity to adjudicate disputes
Criminality as credibility
120
120
Ease of Doing Business ranking
100
90
80
62
60
43
40
20
0
South Africa Russia China Brazil India
Source: World Bank
Public employees per 10,000 residents
200
400
600
1000
1200
1400
1600
800
0
Russian Federation
Canada
United Kingdom
Germany
United States
Under-manned
Italy
Brazil
China
Australia
Argentina
Turkey
Mexico
Japan
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Indonesia
India
Rule of law “supply chain”
Laws
Outmoded laws
Apprentices Act, 1961; Beedi and Cigar Workers (Conditions of Employment) Act, 1966; Beedi Workers Welfare
Cess Act, 1976; Beedi Workers Welfare Fund Act, 1976; Bonded Labour System (Abolition) Act, 1976; Child
Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act, 1986; Children (Pledging of Labour) Act, 1933; Cine-Workers and
Cinema Theatre Workers (Regulation of Employment) Act, 1981; Cine-Workers Welfare Cess Act, 1981; Cine-
Workers Welfare Fund Act, 1981; Coal Mines Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions Act, 1948; Contract
Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act, 1970; Dock Workers (Regulation of Employment) Act, 1948; Dock
Workers (Safety, Health and Welfare) Act, 1986; Employees' Provident Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions Act,
1952; Employees' State Insurance Act, 1948; Employers' Liability Act, 1938; Employment Exchanges
(Compulsory Notification of Vacancies) Act,1959; Equal Remuneration Act, 1976; Factories Act, 1948; Fatal
Accidents Act, 1855; Industrial Disputes Act, 1947; Industrial Employment (Standing Orders) Act, 1946; Inter-
State Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act, 1979; Iron Ore Mines,
Manganese Ore Mines and Chrome Ore Mines Labour Welfare Cess Act, 1976; Iron Ore Mines, Manganese Ore
Mines and Chrome Ore Mines Labour Welfare Fund Act, 1976; Labour Laws (Exemption from Furnishing
Returns and Maintaining Registers by Certain Establishments) Act, 1988; Limestone and Dolomite Mines
Labour Welfare Fund Act, 1972; Maternity Benefit Act, 1961; Mica Mines Labour Welfare Fund Act, 1946;
Mines Act, 1952; Minimum Wages Act, 1948; Motor Transport Workers Act, 1961; Payment of Bonus Act, 1965;
Payment of Gratuity Act, 1972; Payment of Wages Act, 1936; Personal Injuries (Compensation Insurance) Act,
1963; Plantations Labour Act, 1951; Public Liability Insurance Act, 1991; Sales Promotion Employees
(Conditions of Service) Act, 1976; Trade Unions Act, 1926; Weekly Holidays Act, 1942; Working Journalists and
Other Newspaper Employees (Conditions of Service) and Miscellaneous Provisions Act, 1955; Working
Journalists (Fixation of Rates of Wages) Act, 1958; Workmen's Compensation Act, 1923
Laws Judges
Slow wheels of justice
33,000,000
Pending Cases (Supreme, High, and
32,000,000
District/Subordinate Courts)
31,000,000
30,000,000
29,000,000
28,000,000
27,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
July 2008: SP
September
provides
2013: CBI
support to
closes case
UPA
December December
2012: SP 2008: CBI
allows FDI withdraws
retail bill case
Spring 2011:
March 2011:
seat-sharing
CBI reverses
spat for UP
withdrawal
elections
Rule of law “supply chain”
534.99
Income from known
donors
1082.58
Income from other
known sources
4368.75
Income from
unknown sources
Source: ADR
Weeding out the rascals
Democratic
Access to Ability to punish
accountability
information "bad" politicians
preserved
Source: ADR
The “Robin Hood” phenomenon
Thank you!
mvaishnav@ceip.org
@MilanV
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/vaishnav