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CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS: INDIA

TRENDS SHAPING
THE NGO SECTOR
EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT

Produced by:
Marius Oosthuizen
TK Pooe
Kerry-Lee Durrant
RESEARCH TEAM

MARIUS OOSTHUIZEN: KAGISO “TK” POOE: RESEARCHER, KERRY-LEE DURRANT: RESEARCH


FACULTY, RESEARCHER, PUBLIC POLICY COORDINATOR, GIBS
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
TK is a public policy researcher Kerry-Lee is a Research Coordinator
Marius is a faculty member of and practitioner with experience for the Centre of Leadership and
GIBS and a principle at CUSP in local government with the Dialogue and Centre Business
Consulting (Pty) Ltd. He teaches Sedibeng District Municipality, in the Analysis and Research. She
leadership, strategy and ethics, Integrated Development Planning graduated from Vega School of
and is the programme manager (IDP) and Economic Planning Brand Leadership specialising
for the Future of Business in SA Unit and has worked at provincial in Brand Communications. Her
Project. The project aims to bring government level as a consultant for experience ranges from Brand
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

together key stakeholders from an opposition party in the Gauteng Manager for a consultancy firm
the public sector, private sector Provincial Legislature (GPL). He SystemicLogic, MBA programme
and civil society to foster insights is a graduate of the University of coordinator at GIBS Business School,
about the strategic opportunities KwaZulu-Natal (Howard College), Events assistant at Ernst & Young
and threats for business in SA. His holds a Public Policy Masters and Admin coordinator at Investec.
expertise is in the field of scenario in Monitoring Evaluation and
planning, strategic foresight and Analysis/ Project Management and
systems thinking. He holds a Implementation and Public Policy
Masters in Strategic Foresight Honours and Bachelor of Social
from Regent University in Virginia Sciences. TK is currently pursuing
Beach, USA, an Honours Bachelor his doctoral studies, exploring
in Systematic Theology and is a the policy outcomes of the Local
graduate of the Oxford Scenarios Economic Development (LED) and
Programme at Saïd Business entrepreneurship planning over
School, University of Oxford, UK. the last five years by the local and
provincial government of Gauteng.

CONTACT DETAILS
t 011 771 4378
c 084 670 1723
e XXXX@GIBS.CO.ZA
This report is available online at gibs.co.za/xx

PHOTOS BY MARIUS OOSTHUIZEN

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CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

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CONTENTS
xx Alternative Scenarios

xx Baseline Scenario (Business-as-usual), if current trends continue

xx Alternative Scenario A (Cultural Revolution)

xx Alternative Scenario B (Economic Revolution)

xx Systems Analysis

xx Description of the System Dynamics

xx Trend Analysis

xx Stakeholder Survey

xx Interviews - With Stakeholders and Experts

xx Environmental Scanning Report

xx India in Global and National Context


xx Political-Economy of India

xx Cultural-Religious Trends in India

xx Governance and Regulatory Environment


xx CSOs and NGO Operating Environment

xx Key Drivers and Baseline Scenario Logic

GIBS | 5
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

BASELINE SCENARIO
(BUSINESS-AS-USUAL), IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE; INDIA IS NOT YET
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

A NATION: FORGING AHEAD IN THE


FACE OF FEAR
By 2021, the Modi government has come under renewed coast, has resulted in masses of migrants moving to the
pressure at the polls. The promise deconomic transformation cities. This has the dual impact of heightening prejudicial
that saw the BJP come to power has fallen victim to the same treatment of minorities, but also creating a melting pot
systemic constraints that eroded the Congress party. The of multicultural interaction in the urban settings. NGOs
damage done to social relations during the BJP era has left with the political savvy to navigate the parochial politics of
some Indian intellectuals lamenting “…the destruction of the these new multicultural enclaves find them to be hotbeds of
foundations of the nation altogether”. The vision of a united religious practice and community-based social outreach.
prosperous India is overshadowed by conflicting visions
of regions, steeped in a revival of ethnic and religious in- A particular success story is that of the Indian Network
group rhetoric. The establishment of the “Police Forum for for Education and Mobility (INEM), an interfaith initiative
Community Peace and Tranquility” (PF-CPT), an attempt by led by newly affluent Christian social activists, but widely
Prime Minister Modi to quell the wave of vigilanty attacks supported by middle-class aspirants from the Hindu and
on minority groups, has come as too little too late. The Muslim communities, who share a desire to see quality
‘international community’ express growing concern that education scaled across the sub-continent. Bringing
religious intolerance in India severely threatens democratic together technological platforms, social media campaigns
processes in the long run. Critics are divided, saying the PF- and novel enterprise models of future education and
CPT is either a public relations stunt by an otherwise complicit training, these social entrepreneurs have succeeded
Prime Minister Modi, or at worst a mechanism for the RSS in opening 149 urban collages. Modelled on the hostel
sympathisers to enforce Hindu majoritarianism through system, these collages serve as a bridge between industry
legitimate means. There is renewed political energy about and society, providing pockets of hygiene, nutrition and
the possible formation of a Reformed Democratic Congress stability socially, wherein the skills deficits of industry can
Party (RDCP), a dynamic new coalition of parties rooted in be nourished at an accelerated pace. Using a “personal
the humanist, pluralist socialism of Nehru and Gandhi; but witness model”, evangelism and moral education take place
increasingly states and local communities look with frustration informally within the context of a rigorous “socialisation
at a dysfunctional national political system, relying instead on for upward mobility”. Central to the strategy is the strong
systems of ethnic and class patronage within their sphere of notion of communitarianism, the moral sentiment that
influence. The boom in high-end manufacturing around urban “the success of an Indian is bound up in the success of all
centres, largely in the northeast, but increasingly along the Indians”. Some observers say that this form of “systemic

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RELIGIOUS INTOLERANCE AND VIOLENCE HAVE ABATED IN
MOST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, BUT FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS,
SENSING A LOSS OF PERMANENCE AS PM MODI’S SUPPORT ERODES,
VENT THEIR FRUSTRATION ACUTELY AT THE DIRE COST OF A
HANDFUL OF PROMINENT FAITH-BASED INSTITUTIONS.”
philanthropy” is perhaps the alternative model that India has while others argue from the example of St. Paul, for a pragmatic
been waiting for since Gandhi. approach that leverages the citizens’ rights of Christian Indians
in lieu of the Constitution, to ward off victimisation via state
Religious intolerance and violence have abated in most protection. Distracted by these challenges, many social service
parts of the country, but fundamentalist groups, sensing a projects dwindle as the human and financial resources dry up
loss of permanence as PM Modi’s support erodes, vent their that once supported them. Alternative models of funding and
frustration acutely at the dire cost of a handful of prominent operations are beginning to emerge in their place, but only
faith-based institutions. The sensationalist handling of these incrementally. These new models rely heavily on intermediate
incidents by the media serves to worsen the situation by India based entities that serve as clearing houses and coverage
escalating feelings on both sides of the debate. The centrist and for operators on the ground. By combining city-based
reasoned attempts by the “Coalition for Tolerance and the Rule funding models, to avoid the local political complexities, and
of Law” (CTRL) a network of lawyers and lobbyists seeking to introducing “grown in India” enterprise funding models, these
raise the plight of minorities to the top of the national agenda new actors try to continue their work while struggling to cope
on the basis of recourse to law and the courts, is weakened with the learning curve of a role “beyond ministry”. This sparks
by peripheral voices from among minorities calling for a a debate within the various Christian traditions about “business
retaliatory posture. Within the Christian faith community, as mission” and the proper “division of responsibilities” in the
a theological debate rages about the “limits of the ‘turn the Body of Christ. Some argue that they should “not have to serve
other cheek’ teaching”. Some argue for a pacifist Christian tables”, while others retort that “St. Paul made tents” precisely
response as a form of worship, witness and a sign of grace, due to these constraints in his time.

GIBS | 7
ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO A
(CULTURAL
REVOLUTION)
INDIA IS A YOUNG NATION: FORGING
AHEAD IN THE FACE OF FRACTURES
By 2021, the Modi government has come under immense in thousands of young job-seekers moving to the cities. This
pressure at the polls. The promised economic transformation has the dual impact of heightening inter-cultural complexity
that saw the BJP come to power has fallen victim to the same minorities, but also creating a melting pot of multicultural
systemic constraints that eroded the Congress party. The interaction in the urban settings. NGOs with the political savvy
vibrancy of Indian civil society has retaliated to the BJP’s to navigate the cosmopolitan politics of these new multicultural
intolerant authoritarian Hindu nationalism as a tide of pro- enclaves find them to be hotbeds of religious participation and
democracy sentiment from a local level upwards. The limited community-based social outreach.
damage done to social relations during the BJP era is now seen
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

in perspective, leaving some Indian intellectuals lamenting, “… A particular success story is that of the Indian Network
we must never again allow a undemocratic demigod to lead us for Education and Mobility (INEM), an interfaith initiative
astray”. The vision of a united prosperous India is increasingly led by newly affluent Christian social activists, but widely
made up of a chorus of diverse visions of regions, drawing supported by middle-class aspirants from the Hindu and
Muslim communities, who share a desire to see quality
education scaled across the sub-continent. Bringing together
. . . WE MUST NEVER AGAIN technological platforms, social media campaigns and novel
enterprise models of future education and training, these
ALLOW A UNDEMOCRATIC social entrepreneurs have succeeded in opening 149 urban
DEMIGOD TO LEAD US ASTRAY”. collages. Surprisingly, government has come out in support of
the initiative stating, “Education is still the best key to unlock
from a rich tapestry of ethnic and religious diversity. The India’s prosperity for all”. Modelled on the hostel system,
establishment of the “People’s Forum for Community Cohesion these collages serve as a bridge between industry and society,
and Dialogue” (PF-CCD), an initiative by a national network providing pockets of hygiene, nutrition and stability socially,
of academics to foster social capital in the face of the recent whereinthe skills deficits of industry can be nourished at an
wave of vigilantly attacks on minority groups, has come as accelerated pace. Using a “personal witness model”, ethical and
a breath of fresh air. The ‘international community’ express citizenship education take place informally within the context
tentative concern that religious intolerance in India threatens of a rigorous “socialisation for upward mobility”. Central to
democratic processes, but are encouraged by society’s the strategy is the strong notion of communitarianism, the
resilience. Critics are divided, saying the PF-CCD is a public moral sentiment that “the success of an Indian is bound up in
relations stunt by opposition supporters and enemies of Prime the success of all Indians”. Some observers say that this form of
Minister Modi, or at worst a mechanism for the secularists to “systemic philanthropy” is perhaps the alternative model that
undermine the Hindu majority through legitimate means. India has been waiting for since Gandhi.

There is muted political energy about the possible formation of Religious intolerance and violence have abated in most
a Reformed Democratic Congress Party (RDCP), a dynamic new parts of the country, but fundamentalist groups, sensing
coalition of parties rooted in the humanist, pluralist socialism a loss of permanence as PM Modi’s support erodes, vent
of Nehru and Gandhi; but increasingly states and local their frustration on social and mainstream media with false
communities look with reluctant support at a dysfunctional accusations and fraudulent cases against minority groups.
national political system, relying instead on systems of ethnic The sensationalist handling of these incidents by the is
and class patronage within their sphere of influence. The boom increasingly seen as such, as feelings on both sides of the
in high-end manufacturing around urban centres, largely in debate dissipate. The centrist and reasoned attempts by
the northeast, but increasingly along the coast, has resulted the “Coalition for Tolerance and the Rule of Law” (CTRL) a

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network of lawyers and lobbyists seeking to raise the plight challenges, many social service projects find new vigour as the
of minorities to the top of the national agenda on the basis of human and financial resources are mobilised as a consequence
recourse to law and the courts, is welcomed by a choir voices of the concerns over intolerance. Alternative models of funding
from among minorities calling for a proactive posture. Within and operations fail to emerge as the environment becomes
the Christian faith community, a theological debate rages about easier. The old dependence of India-based entities on foreign
the “limits of the ‘turn the other cheek’ teaching”. Some argue funding persists – at their peril. Instead of combining city-based
for a pacifist Christian response as a form of worship, witness funding models and introducing “grown in India” enterprise
and a sign of grace, while others argue from the example of funding models, these old actors try to continue their work on
St. Paul, for a pragmatic approach that leverages the citizens’ the basis of mission budgets from abroad. This sparks a debate
rights of Christian Indians in lieu of the Constitution, to ward by those outside the various Christian traditions about “…
off victimisation via state protection. Emboldened by these whether Christianity is a mere import into India”.

GIBS | 9
ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO B
(ECONOMIC
REVOLUTION)
INDIA IS A BUDDING NATION:
STRIDING AHEAD IN THE WAKE OF
OPPORTUNITY
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

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By 2021, the Modi government has renewed their strong
mandate at the polls. The promised economic transformation SOME ARGUE FOR A
that saw the BJP come to power took time to materialise but the
results are now evident. The continued damage done to social PACIFIST CHRISTIAN RESPONSE
relations during the BJP era has left some Indian intellectuals AS A FORM OF WORSHIP,
lamenting, “…one cannot build an economy at the cost of
national identity”. The vision of a united prosperous India is
WITNESS AND A SIGN OF GRACE,
overshadowed by the Hindu nationalist’s vision, steeped in a WHILE OTHERS ARGUE FROM
revival of “India for Indians” sentiment. The establishment THE EXAMPLE OF ST. PAUL, FOR
of the “Peoples Forum for Community Reconstruction and
Discipline” (PF-CRD), an attempt by Prime Minister Modi to A PRAGMATIC APPROACH THAT
popularise a Hindu nationalist ethic amid the wave of vigilante LEVERAGES THE CITIZENS’
attacks on minority groups, has come as a misguided attempt
at social engineering. The ‘international community’ express
RIGHTS OF CHRISTIAN INDIANS
growing concern that religious intolerance in India severely IN LIEU OF THE CONSTITUTION,
threatens democratic processes in the long run. Critics are TO WARD OFF VICTIMISATION VIA
divided, saying the PF-CRD is a naïve mistake by the complicit
Prime Minister Modi, or at worst a precursor for the RSS STATE PROTECTION.”
sympathisers to enforce Hindu majoritarianism through
legitimate means. intolerance and violence have not abated in most parts of the
country, with fundamentalist groups sensing a momentum on
There is little political energy about the possible formation the back of PM Modi’s popularity. While widely publicised and
of a Reformed Democratic Congress Party (RDCP), a attempt debated, these attacks are focused on a handful of prominent
at a new coalition of parties rooted in the humanist, pluralist faith-based institutions. The sensationalist handling of these
socialism of Nehru and Gandhi. Instead, increasingly states and incidents by the media serves to worsen the climate in India by
local communities look with a lack of faith at a dysfunctional escalating feelings on both sides of the debate. The centrist and
national political system, relying instead on systems of ethnic reasoned attempts by the “Coalition for Tolerance and the Rule
and class patronage within their sphere of influence. The boom of Law” (CTRL) a network of lawyers and lobbyists seeking to
in mining, high-end manufacturing and tech start-ups around raise the plight of minorities to the top of the national agenda
urban centres, has resulted in masses aspirant young Indians on the basis of recourse to law and the courts, shows traction
moving to the cities in search of opportunity. This has the dual with promise of long term effectiveness. Most Indians are more
impact of reshaping urban politics, and creating a melting pot concerned with economics than religious relations. Within the
of multicultural interaction in the urban settings. NGOs with Christian faith community, a theological debate rages about the
the cultural savvy to navigate the new networks among these “limits of the ‘turn the other cheek’ teaching”.
new multicultural enclaves find them to be hotbeds of eclectic
religious adherence and community-based socio-economic Some argue for a pacifist Christian response as a form of
endeavour. A particular success story is that of the Indian worship, witness and a sign of grace, while others argue
Network for Education and Mobility (INEM), an interfaith from the example of St. Paul, for a pragmatic approach that
initiative led by newly affluent Christian social activists, but leverages the citizens’ rights of Christian Indians in lieu of the
widely supported by middle-class aspirants from the Hindu Constitution, to ward off victimisation via state protection.
and Muslim communities, who share a desire to see quality Frustrated by these challenges, many social service projects
education scaled across the sub-continent. Bringing together stagnate as the human and financial resources from aboard dry
technological platforms, social media campaigns and novel up since India is now a “increasingly affluent country” in the
enterprise models of future education and training, these social view of donors. Alternative models of funding and operations
entrepreneurs have succeeded in opening 149 urban collages. are beginning to emerge in their place, but only incrementally.
Modeled on the hostel system, these collages serve as a bridge These new models rely heavily on a network-development
between business and society, providing pockets of hygiene, approach, raising many small donations from a wide array of
nutrition and stability socially, wherein the skills deficits of the donors. By combining social networks with “common good”
business community can be nourished at an accelerated pace. events and projects, entities avoid the political complexities.
International experts and academics enhance their offering Introducing “grown in India” enterprise funding models prove
through short term exchange interventions. Using a “personal successful; as new actors continue their work while embracing
witness model”, enterprise development, ethics and citizenship the learning curve of a role “beyond ministry”. This sparks a
education take place informally within the context of a rigorous debate within the various Christian traditions about “value of
“socialisation for upward mobility”. Central to the strategy business versus the value of mission” and the proper “focus
is the strong notion of success-networks, the materialist and allocation of resources” in the Body of Christ. Some argue
sentiment that “the success of an Indian is bound up in the that they “…should not invest in temporal things”, while others
success of a fellow Indian”. Some observers say that this form retort that “…even the Prophets encouraged the ‘building of
of “social entrepreneurship” holds much promise but risks houses...[in Exile]” precisely due to these constraints in their
undermining the familial values of eras gone past. Religious time.

GIBS | 11
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
The following system was derived from the analysis of the trend identified. Importantly, in order to make an informed
forecast of a future scenario arising from the drivers of change in a complex context, a systems analysis is crucial of the
dynamic interplay between the various change factors that give rise to phenomena in the environment.

(Ec) Growing
(P) Rampant (P) Continued + pollution
corruption arbitrary +
authoritarianism (E) Fluctuating economic
growth and development
+ + + +
+
+ (Ec) Pressure
(P) Loss of belief in
the secular socialist on ecological
+ systems (water (S) Lingering (S) Regional
approach to prosperity + caste attitudes diversity
and energy)
(E) Increasing (E) Business
+ financial resources attractiveness
available in India improving
(P) A change in era from
the ‘Ghandi dynasty’ + +
to competitive politics + (S) Animosity + (S)
(Hindu Nationalism) + Longstanding (S) Rising
at social
(L) Law versus mobility hierarchal strata professionalisation
implementation remains of NGO Section
deficit (training and
+ Management)
+ (S) Lagging
(P) Rising ‘Indentity (P) Growing (S) Rising culture of
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Politics’ (use of political inter-community philanthropy


ethnic-religious + intolerance + violence
identity) +
+ + (T) Growing + (L) Freedom (L) Constitutional
(S)Heigtened religious polarisation on of expression framework and
and cultural intolerance + social media + under strain courts largely
unused by Church
(S) Bithrates under affluent +
elites and upper casts likely + (L) Increased scrutiny (S) Reputaitional
to drop significantly and governance + challenges for
requirements NGO’s +
(L) Greater
(L) Disruptions in demands for human
funding availability rights advocacy

The system consists of three major sub-systems, the political system (left), the economic system (centre) and the socio-
cultural system (right). These are interwoven and mutually reinforcing. Socially, lingering social attitudes about caste
reinforce longstanding social stratification and hierarchy. Economic progress and upward mobility by individuals and
communities push up against the prejudices contained within social norms, leading to animosity and suspicion. Economic
progress fluctuates due to corruption, poor governance and petty politics at regional and local levels. Although greater
rescues are amassed within India and are not readily distributed due to cultural beliefs. These tensions hamstring and
threaten to derail the “secular socialist project” and have led to the rise of opportunistic Hindu Nationalism and resultant
victimisation and marginalisation of minorities, feeding sentiments of race, religious and ethnic “identity politics”.
Manifestations of political intolerance flare ups of religious and cultural intolerance and increased scrutiny of social
actors by government bureaucrats are the result. These sentiments play out in polarisation on social media and place
the state of freedom of expression under strain. While the NGO sector, and faith-based entities in particular, have a
longstanding legacy of social service in India, the system represents a greater need for efforts to professionalise the sector
(governance, accountability and financial management), the need for social diplomacy and sustaining a license to operate
in communities and the critical need to diversify funding streams. The largely unexplored role of these entities in human
rights advocacy and recourse to the law emerges as a critical strategic imperative.

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TREND ANALYSIS
POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL LEGAL ECOLOGICAL

A change in era Fluctuating Heightened Growing Increased Growing pollution


from the “Gandhi economic growth religious and polarisation on scrutiny and
dynasty” to and development cultural intolerance social media governance
competitive requirements
politics (Hindu
nationalism)

Rising “Identity Increasing financial Birth rates Constitutional Pressure


Politics” (use of resources available under affluent framework and on ecological
ethnic-religious in India elites and upper courts largely systems (water and
identity) casts likely to drop unused by church energy)
significantly

Loss of belief in Business Longstanding Greater


the secular attractiveness hierarchal demands for
socialist approach improving strata remains human rights
to prosperity advocacy

Rampant Rising Freedom of


corruption intercommunity expression
violence under strain

Continued arbitrary Rising Law versus


authoritarianism professionalisat implementation
ion of NGO deficit
Section
(Training and
Management)

Growing political Regional diversity Disruptions in


intolerance funding availability

Reputational
challenges for
NGOs

Lagging culture
of philanthropy

Animosity at
social mobility

Lingering caste
attitudes

GIBS | 13
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

14 | GIBS
GIBS | 15
STAKEHOLDER
SURVEY
An survey was conducted to obtain stakeholder views on the operating and regulator environment in India. By combining
the survey with the initial desk research conducted and in-country interviews that followed, we were able to triangulate
the data and test the assumptions derived from earlier findings.

THE SURVEY COVERED THE FOLLOWING q The loss of Foreign Contribution Regulatory Act (FCRA)
THEMES status and subsequent inability to access foreign funding;
qThe General Environment; q The need to raise support from within India and Indians
qFunding and Sustainability; in particular;
qCurrent Political Nuances and Tensions; q The need to change the “language of reporting” to
qSocial and Inter-Faith Relations; become more neutral;
qThe Constitution, Courts and the Rule of Law; q The development of new partnerships to ensure
qCorruption, Infrastructure and the Economy; sustainability;
qReligious Freedom and Tolerance. q Greater engagement in advocacy on human rights;
q The need to engage seriously the laws and regulations
THE SURVEY FINDINGS WERE AS FOLLOWS applicable to the sector;
q The need for increased staffing to cope with the statutory
GENERAL OPERATING ENVIRONMENT compliance regime;
63% of respondents indicated a negative outlook for the q The need to move to a “consultancy” or “enterprise”
general operating environment. The survey indicated high model to avoid the non-profit model that is coming
levels of uncertainty over the operating environment, with under scrutiny.
particular emphasis on the use of regulation and legislation
to scrutinies foreign funded entities. Where these incidents INDIA UNDER PRIME MINISTER MODI
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

have occurred, issues often arise around permissions and the There was a marked emphasis on the influence of Prime
status required to obtain foreign funding and to enjoy the tax Minister Modi and subsequently, the BJP party, on the
deduction benefits of such status. Claims are made that there changes experienced in the operating environment.
is an intentional attempt at “finding fault” or intentional Notably, government was said to be focusing on improving
subversion with these entities, motivated by religious and governance and business in India, but was doing so against
nationalistic intolerance. On a more informal basis, violence the backdrop of Hindu Nationalism. This, in the view of
against religious leaders has become a growing concern while one respondent, pointed to an attempt at “Hindutva”
being limited to isolated incidents. Overall, there is evidence or “theocracy”. The result was an “unwelcome” attitude
that the environment is becoming increasingly stringent. Some towards Christian work and the rights of minorities
entities remain uninformed about these developments while being curbed. Importantly, Christian work and that of
there is a growing narrative of concern among leaders. There is perceived “liberal groups” were clustered together in these
some evidence that, although these developments are real, the perceptions. Critically, the concern arose over “intolerance
levels and extent of concern are disproportionate. with impunity”, in spite of positive progress in the areas of
business attractiveness and openness.
LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY
While respondents indicated that the long-term sustainability INFLUENCE OF RELIGION ON PERCEPTIONS
of their entities would be affected greatly by the availability of It emerged that disproportionate emphasis was placed
“financial support” and the “availability of human resources”, on the religious affiliation when perceptions are formed
the greatest consensus existed about the critical importance of about entities. This was more evident because of the
their “licence or right to operate”. This supports the qualitative direct role of President Modi and the BJP, and pointed to a
finding that scrutiny is an issue of growing importance to their longstanding contextual intolerance of religious differences.
longevity. Importantly, respondents explained that NGO work was
being done by various religions, but that Christians are
RATE OF CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT: often seen as “outsiders” or “tools of the West” interfering
The respondents indicated an expectation that changes in their in India. Paradoxically, the quality of Christian education
environment would be “notable”, but only a fraction foresaw and healthcare institutions continued to attract elite
“radical” change, and more foresaw incremental change. This Indians of all religions. This pointed to the strong legacy
is notable in that it indicates the trajectory of change and of the Christian social mission in India. A lack of emphasis
informs the measure of haste required in response. − historically − has resulted in a lack of “creation care”
(environmentalism) among Christian concepts. In spite
CHANGES EXPECTED INCLUDED of this good work, regular “allegations of fraudulent
q The emergence of new rules by which to operate, conversions” by Christians appeared to be a ploy by
specifically regarding government; hardliners using popular media to discredit Christians.

16 | GIBS
FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IN INDIA q Difference also existed between the rural and urban settings,
Hardly any respondents took a neutral stance on the state the former often being more divided and the urban being
of freedom of expression in India. The general consensus more cosmopolitan;
was that there was a major change afoot in this regard, and q Concern was raised about the high levels of corruption,
that the space for freedom of expression was closing, and especially within tax departments and other government
“even worsening”. These concerns were said to be shared departments;
by notable commentators and leaders from various sectors. q It was said that intolerance is greater in the “Hindu
Steps had been taken to express concern about this, citing the Heartlands”;
Constitution as a basis for defense. However, these sentiments q Importantly, it was felt that only superficial unity existed
were shared widely, often appearing in fringe newspapers and between parts of the Christian community in addressing
on social media, and at times culminated in violence against these issues.
individual Christians and groups of Muslims and Christians.
Furthermore, attempts had been made at silencing minority RURAL VERSUS URBAN SETTINGS
activists, with some being intimidated or even murdered. On a The vast majority of respondents indicated important
more subtle level, Hindu Nationalist sympathisers increasingly differences between rural and urban settings in terms of
were appointed into key positions. operating environment. There was a clear deficit in human
capital (knowledge and skills) the further one moved from the
GOVERNANCE OF THE NGO/NPO/FAO SECTOR cities. In addition, the regulatory environment in rural settings
The majority of respondents felt that these entities were depended heavily on the “whims and prejudices” of who was
adequately governed, with a notable portion (45, 45%) in charge. It was said that in some instances the national
being concerned that they were “poorly governed” and zero government was benign, but that often the local authorities
respondents indicating that they were “very well governed”. executed draconian measures. So, while the same laws applied
This pointed to a clear gap in terms of governance effectiveness across the nation, rural people were claimed to at times “feel
in the sector. Improvements had been made in the last two free from the law”. Corruption was also said to be higher in
decades, however, such as through the Christian Institute towns and villages than in the cities.
of Management, but much remains to be done. Nepotism
remained endemic, financial accountability, and reporting and IMPACT OF CORRUPTION
monitoring were major issues. This in spite of the existence There was a 100% consensus among respondents that
of a robust framework for the functioning of NGOs and other corruption “hampers the activities” of the sector. It was said
entities. that corruption remained “rampant” and often took the form
of “roadblocks” or evident in “delays caused by gatekeepers
REGISTRATION AND LEGAL STANDING and decision makers who refused to process applications for
Many of the concerns raised were related to legislative changes permits and licences for work without being bribed”. The
that had not arrived, but were expected tie into the “agenda” of result, should one choose not to bribe, was that such permits
the Hindu Nationalists and hardliners. However, the legislative remained “at bottom of the pile” for months or years. Serious
and regulatory context is complicated. Not only is registration cases of corruption may include “false cases” being brought
required for a FCRA licence, but annual renewal is necessary against entities or persons. Due to low levels of financial
and exposes entities that participate in activities not directly accountability, the impression remained that one was able to
related to their stated purpose. “do anything via bribes”, including securing the required status
for the entity, giving an advantage to entities that are willing
One observation was that membership networks may have and have the means to bribe.
a greater chance of survival, given possible legislative
changes, and given their dependence on a larger array of FOCUS AREAS AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION
funding sources. Respondents indicated an array of different Respondents indicated that there was a general suspicion of
registration approaches used, ranging from being registered organisations working in social services, but that there was
as a society, being restored with Home Affairs to receive a level of appreciation for good work being done in health,
foreign contributions, having registered to enable filing for education and poverty upliftment. In many instances, these
employee benefits and returns filed, being constituted as a activities built the credibility of religious associations.
trust under the trust act or having no legal status, but working However, it was also felt that there was a conflict of interests
through intermediaries. A concern was raised that hardliners in that some Christian organisations used social services as
in various parts of government and society would have access a pretext for conversion, which was frowned upon by the
to registration information and that this could pose a threat to authorities and the general public. In addition, work being
these entities. done in this space often was subject to tensions relating to the
caste system, where failure to take responsibility for people
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES of lower casts is often the case. While aid organisations were
Half of all respondents indicated notable differences in said to be safe in most cases, they were often grouped with
particular regions in relation to the regulatory environment. Christian aid organisations, which typically were subject to
higher levels of scrutiny.
These differences included;
q The existence of anti-conversion laws in some states, with SOCIAL MEDIA AND INTERNET CONNECTIVITY
differing levels of enforcement depending on who was in It was felt that technology and connectivity were playing an
power; increasingly important role in the operations of these entities,

GIBS | 17
particularly in relation to communication and funding. related to the work of meeting social needs and healthcare for
However, concern was expressed that high levels of scrutiny of the poor, which often had a transformational impact on the
these platforms were being seen and that this was often used as society. The media was, on occasion, used by the hardliners for
a mechanism to find fault with entities. propaganda against Christians, resulting in the media portrayal
being amplified compared to actual sentiments on the ground.
LEGAL SYSTEM: ACCESSIBILITY AND IMPARTIALITY
90% of respondents said the legal system was accessible to FAMILY PLANNING AND BIRTH CONTROL
the sector, but a third, 33.33% expressed concern that entities Respondents indicated that views on family planning were split
did not always enjoy fair treatment at the hands of the legal in India, with a small majority (60%) indicating that it was
system. While a high majority (90%) held the view that the viewed as acceptable. It was said that Muslims had the largest
Constitution had been adopted and accepted broadly by families while pockets of Hindus were encouraging higher birth
Indians, and that this was positive for the sector, three times rates in their constituencies to counter the rise in birth rates
as many held the view that some religious groups were treated among Muslims in the long run.
with (bias) partiality in the courts. Furthermore, it was widely Income, Domestic versus Foreign Respondents indicated that
(80%) held that the parliament did not adequately represent less than 15%-25% of income came from local (Indian) sources
the sector’s interests. and that diversification of income sources would be critical to
sustaining their operations in the future.
AUTONOMY OF THE SECTOR
The majority held that lately, the sector was able to act LEADERSHIP OF PRESIDENT MODI
autonomously, subject to being within the law, but that this Most respondents (65%) indicated that president Modi was
space for autonomy was closing. This, again, was attributable a “Hindu Nationalist”, but also with a meaningful recognition
to the current regime wanting to restrain conversions to other (18, 18%, respectively) that he was “business friendly” and
religions. “pragmatic”.

ECONOMIC REFORMS SCRUTINY OF THE SECTOR


The reforms have had the result of increasing foreign direct The respondents all agreed that the sector was under increased
investment in India and improved the ease of starting scrutiny. However, there was divergence in the reasons given
businesses. The result was that the middle class grew for why this was so, with some emphasising the agenda of the
dramatically. However, this increased the availability of Hindu Nationalists, some questioning the apparent economic
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

funding in India without having a proportional improvement in emphasis of the Modi regime, while there was also recognition
financial support from within India as a result. that better governance and transparency were sought; and
finally, that political interests wanting to frustrate politically
Respondents attributed this to a legacy of poor teaching on active foreign elements were to blame.
stewardship and giving, as well as deeply entrenched cultural
norms that view society through the caste system and do not RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE:
give to the upliftment of the poor. As a result, NGOs have at It was widely held that there was a rise of religious intolerance
times been left to work with the poor without much support and that the situation was “volatile”; however, there was also
from within India. In addition, due to the new affluence in the acknowledgment that these events tended to be disparate and
country, some foreign funders withdrew funding due to the isolated occurrences and that they were less evident among
misperception that affluence would lead to generosity. Since the educated and upwardly mobile, with the exception of the
there historically there had not been a culture of philanthropy, religious fundamentalists enclaves. As such, it was held that
being restrained by caste and cultural systems, these entities the matter was a mixture between increase and decreased
struggled. intolerance − depending on the locality.

BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE: EFFECT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS


It was found that basic infrastructure such as water and The majority of respondents stated that local government
sanitation, energy and roads had a large effect on the sector, officials had a significant effect on the sector’s ability to
particularly in areas where development lagged behind. operate, with over 70% indicating “impact” or “large impact”,
Overall, this was seen to be improving. compared to 27.27% indicating a “small impact”.

GROWTH IN THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY LOCAL RELIGIOUS LEADERS


High levels of Christian growth and conversion were not as Comparatively, local religious leaders were seen to be inversely
highlighted in the mainstream media as one may expect. Also, as impactful, with only 18.8% having a “large impact”, as many
the official rate of Christians remained as low as 2% of the as 45.45% being said to have a small impact.
population, while this may be misleading. Many Christians
preferred not to disclose their religious affiliation due to the SOCIAL VIEW OF MISSIONARIES
fact that they would lose their affirmative action benefits if they Respondents indicated that missionaries were largely
were to do so. “unwanted” (63.64%), but that an important portion (36.36%)
were neutral in their perception of missionaries. Respondents
Discreetly though, these developments were shared within pointed to a general paranoia over missionaries, created largely
the community and celebrated, particularly with growth by propagandists wanting to characterise missionaries as
taking place through cell groups and house churches and that having sinister motives. This was worsened by the embedded

18 | GIBS
social norm of “insiders and outsiders” typical of Indian DEREGISTRATION OF NGOS
society. As a result, missionaries engaged in relief efforts were The regulatory steps were viewed by respondents with
respected for their work, since they were seen to “contribute suspicion, and even labelled as “blatant attempts” to prevent
something else to society”, so too were “tentmakers”, but missionary activities, especially by larger Christian NGOs.
were still viewed with suspicion. This was particularly true in However, it was acknowledged that a political dimension
politically contentious regions. accompanied the steps that thought to “muzzle social activism”
by anyone who opposes government’s economic drive,
GOVERNMENT VIEWS OF MISSIONARIES including organisations such as Greenpeace.
As many as 81.82% of respondents felt that government
saw missionaries as “unwanted”, and only 18.18% as NATIONAL ISSUES:
“neutral”. This indicated a stronger feeling of alienation Respondents indicated that the biggest issue facing India in the
from government than society at large. Examples were next decade will be “economic growth”, followed by “religious
cited of refusal by government of allowing public meetings intolerance” and “poverty”. “Environmental degradation”,
by missionaries, the refusal of visas to missionaries and “pollution” and “government capacity” followed as lesser
the proposed “code of conduct” that targets even charity issues, with “overpopulation” and “tensions with Pakistan”
missionaries. rating lowest of the selection.

GIBS | 19
INTERVIEWS - WITH
STAKEHOLDERS AND
EXPERTS
A research team visited India at the start of November and conducted a series of qualitative interviews with stakeholders
and experts. These interviews covered the major themes of the survey above and pre-research outlined below. Interviews
included; NGO leaders, network leaders, business leaders, academics and civil society activists. The observations and
findings follow:

BACKGROUND in India for long periods of time, either as the majority party
The in-country component of the research took place against in the Lok Sabha/Rajya Sabha or through coalitions. However,
the backdrop of the pre-research, an environmental scanning in 2014, many Indians felt that the INC had failed India
report that tentatively argued that religious minorities, and and change was needed in order to firstly stem corruption
the Christian Indian community in particular, faced increasing characterising INC rule and secondly, achieve new economic
levels of distress due to the ascent to power of the Bharatiya development/growth that could turn the previous era’s growth
Janata Party (BJP) of the current Prime Minster Narendra into long-term jobs and opportunities. Importantly, India,
Modi. The BJP had been flagged as a danger to the Christian being the “oldest democracy”, has a legacy of its politics being
community of India, due to its inclination for an aggressive moderate and steering away from extremist views, but the BJP
form of Hindu-Nationalism as espoused by the RSS, the was largely welcomed due to the failures of the INC.
“ideological mentor” of the BJP. This Hindu-Nationalism has
its roots in the work of Vinayak Damodar Savarkar’s Hindutva: ECONOMIC
The chief reason Prime Minster Modi was elected, was his
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Who is a Hindu? This book sought to paint a picture of what understanding of the situation in India and his promise
India and Indians should be known as. He argued that “the to assist India to grow its economy and provide enhanced
Hindus descend from the Aryas, who settled in India at the economic opportunities.
dawn of history and who already formed a nation at that time.
An Indian academic explained that, “Modi has brought in
However, in Savarkar’s writings, ethnic bonds are not the assurance and confidence for the growth of the economy. He
only criteria of Hindutva. National identity rests for him on is not as hamstrung by having coalitions in government due to
three pillars: geographical unity, racial features and a common his strong mandate. The service industry, where recent growth
culture…” This notion of grouping Indians into a Hindu has been achieved, has its limitations, which is why extractives
grouping or a homogenous grouping is what modern day BJP are being strengthened…”. INC’s mismanagement of the
politics rest upon. Such Nationalism sees the Indian State economy was seen in their neglect to grow or plan for India’s
firstly, as a Hindu entity and secondly, a State that exists to manufacturing sector or for skills development. “Modi will be
serve the Hindu identity. The BJP, therefore, sees itself as the assisted by positive balance of payments, due to low energy
protector of Hindu culture and the Indian State against alien or prices, but needs to work on the lack of partnership between
non-organic forces, chief among them being Christianity and industry and schooling”. This viewpoint was supported by
Islam. a Christian businessman, who added that “the economy of
India has, for 10 years, been in an up- and downcycle; at the
The aforementioned forces, Christianity and Islam grassroots, this growth has yet to materialise under Modi.
(Christianity will be the main focus of this discussion) were Modi’s promises of Walmart or Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
considered alien because they are not of Indian origin. In is yet to materialise and the cost of basic food items are on the
the case of Christianity, for instance, it was considered to rise”.
be a social and religious construct born out of India’s British
colonial past. Yet, the fact that 24 million Indian Christians The role of the Christians in the Indian context was one of
exist today represents a growing problem for those Hindu- exclusion and limited opportunities due to cultural barriers.
Nationalists who prefer to see India as Hindu first. As a Christian businessman explained, “The BJP party comes
across positively and has a business strategy. However, it
POLITICAL is harder if you come from the smaller religious groups. A
The BJP, after many years out of government, came to power systemic agenda is set against them. There exists, therefore,
in 2014 and now controls the Lok Sabha (House of the People) a small population of Christians in business in India as a
and Rajya Sabha (Council of States). It should be noted that the result.” It was explained that “the church grew among the
BJP had previously tried to enter government and in 1977 won lower caste of Indians. However, it will take many years for
a general election; however, it had a short stay in power. The them to establish themselves as a strong economic block. The
Indian National Congress (INC) had been the majority party current business climate favours the upper class or castes.

20 | GIBS
This discrimination even extends to multinationals, whose citizens are not “up in arms” as could be expected if the
Human Resource departments follow the national norm” . This reputation of the sector were sound.
situation has created a dual problem for Indian Christians.
Firstly, Indian Christians find themselves supporting the What also emerged from this fieldwork was the power of the
economic aspirations of the BJP, but being against the social socio-political narrative of the BJP. It was confirmed that the
and even political ideology of the BJP. Secondly, and more of ideological guidance of the BJP emanated from the Rashtriya
concern for Hindu nationalist elites, is Christian growth via Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), an NGO that Pan-Hindu or Hindu
conversions, which threatens to upend the social system. Nationalist entity formed in 1925. Furthermore, it was the
RSS that was responsible for the violence against Christians
This study found that Christianity in India had been proven as and other non-Hindu entities. The BJP is a movement of
mechanism for upward mobility. higher caste groups, even the INC has this caste bias problem.
When lower caste members joined Christianity, with its main They are the force behind the economic subtleness of the BJP.
emphasis on equality and education, this undermined the Their violence is more pronounced during election times and
social construct of lower caste people who no longer stayed campaigns. RSS speaks of the Christians rather than Muslims
in their allocated castes. However, this nuanced piece of being the threat, due to their conversion appeal. Nagpur was said
information is missed by many researchers and news agencies to be the headquarters of the RSS and concerns were expressed
because, “The elite see Modi as a good person to capture the that they continue to obtain personal data of the
State, using key buzz terms like economic growth and the like. Christians in India and their work, which may be used for
Also the BJP growth has been on the back of grassroots and the persecution. Yet, respondents also explained that the urban
intellectual class, who ensure economic development and what centres like New Delhi are more tolerant of Christian practice
favours them is the key narrative”. than the rural areas. The Christian ethos and mission was said
to undermine the Hindu Nationalist ideal more in rural areas,
SOCIAL where the majority of India’s poor and out-caste live and who
One of the key points that emerged from interviewing clergy may see Christianity as a way out of servitude. The Indian
at the grassroots is that they and other people observed that caste system, therefore, is undermined in rural areas when
not all Non-Government-Organisations (NGOs) are actually Christianity is presented as an option to the poorest of the poor.
doing worthwhile work. Some NGOs seem to just exist, but However, the prevalence of the caste is seen sometimes amongst
do not change the material or social condition of India’s most converted Christians, when marriage practices are carried out
vulnerable. So, even when certain intellectuals defend their further in families that tend to fall back into their old habits of
existence in India against the perceived BJP encroachment, the caste system rather than see fellow Christians as equals.

GIBS | 21
ENVIRONMENTAL
SCANNING REPORT
(As at 23 July 2015, prior to survey and in-country interviews)

NOTE
*Comments added to the section below indicated with the *asterisks indicate additional insights from the survey and interview
process, and are vital to the interpretation of the data presented.

AIMS
1. To “provide strategic foresight as to the steps needed to respond to future changes in the NGO operating environment in
India”.
2. To anticipate which key capabilities IC organisations will need to develop, to ensure resilience and sustainability, irrespective of
a range of regulatory uncertainties in their operating environment.

BACKGROUND
1. Growing role of political interests, patronage and other factors, including public opinion and cultural nuances, arising in
unforeseen obstacles in the operation of NGOs and foreign funders in India.
2. Increased scrutiny of NGOs may need to be managed and accommodated in innovative and flexible ways to ensure longevity of
operations.
3. The scenario process will provide a mechanism to explore these uncertainties and their possible impacts and highlight
appropriate responses.
4. Questions will be raised about; registration and legal status, naming and branding, visibility and strategic communication, as
well as the chosen “vehicles” best suited to the environment.
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

INDIA IN GLOBAL AND NATIONAL CONTEXT: reforms since 1991 have seen an increasingly educated and
(5%) connected (Bhattacharya, Jul, 25) “youth bulge” in India
emerge as a driver of regional and global power (CIA), 2015.
The Indian subcontinent is a large and complex region. *As *This newfound affluence has been largely among the upper
a professor at the Jawahar Lal University in Delhi observed, castes, partly reinforced by the prejudicial system of caste-
“India is in fact not a country, but a continent. To think of based interaction, marriage and transacting. Antidotally, a
India as a country can be equated to drawing a border around person of a lower caste may be refused access to a school, a
France, Germany, Italy and the like and calling that a nation- rental property, a job or business transaction on the basis of
state. In spite of its humanist constitution, India’s cultural, their ethnic origin, trapping them outside the virtuous cycle
linguistic and religious complexity has resulted in centuries of of education and progress.
inter-group tensions. India gained independence in 1947 from
British colonial rule, which was accompanied by large-scale India enjoys natural resource endowments in coal (4th largest
communal violence before the subcontinent was partitioned globally), iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, rare earth
into two separate states, India and Pakistan. *Notably, this elements, titanium ore, chromite, natural gas, diamonds,
introduced the concept of partitioning into the popular psyche petroleum, limestone and arable land, of which 60,5% is
in India, and while this historic division took place almost used for agriculture. Natural disasters that do occur include;
seventy years ago, three generations, it still looms large in the droughts, flash floods as well as monsoonal flooding and
imagination and public discourse. Three wars were fought earthquakes. These are worsened by; deforestation; soil
until 1971, after which terrorist violence continued between erosion; overgrazing; desertification; air pollution from
these neighbours. Since 1998, both the Republic of India industrial effluents and vehicle emissions; water pollution
and Pakistan have demonstrated nuclear capability. India, a from raw sewage and runoff of agricultural pesticides, tap
federal republic consisting of 29 states and 7 union territories, water is not potable throughout the country, and a huge and
continues to be plagued by overpopulation, environmental growing population that is overstraining natural resources.
degradation, extensive poverty and widespread corruption. *From a regulatory standpoint, attempts at environmental
*Apart from these challenges being systemic and deeply responsibility are undermined by both the legacies of
interwoven, they are complicated by the cultural-religious ecological neglect, and the pressing need for economic
world-view, particularly of Hinduism and the caste system, that growth, which is increasingly seen as a trade-off between
reinforce the attitudes and − at times − policies that prevent low carbon services and high carbon, but labour absorptive
transformational change in the social fabric. Yet, economic extractive industries.

22 | GIBS
Three equal horizontal bands of saffron (subdued orange)
(top), white, and green, with a blue chakra (24-spoked
wheel) centered in the white band; saffron represents
courage, sacrifice, and the spirit of renunciation; white
signifies purity and truth; green stands for faith and
fertility; the blue chakra symbolises the wheel of life in
movement and death in stagnation.

economic reforms and about global economic stagnation.


POLITICAL-ECONOMY OF INDIA Long-term forecast growth is positive due to a young
India uses a common law system modeled on the English population and corresponding low dependency ratio, healthy
model under a constitution that has been amended multiple savings and investment rates, and increasing integration
times since India’s independence and as recently as 2012, while into the global economy, but challenges remain in terms
separate personal law codes apply to Muslims, Christians of; poverty, systemic corruption across sectors (Lasseter &
and Hindus and there is judicial review of legislative acts. Mehrotra, 2015), violence and discrimination against women
The Indian State is structured around a head of state and and girls. It was also associated with an inefficient power
deputy, with a prime minister as head of the government, generation and distribution system, ineffective enforcement
a position held by Prime Minister Narendra MODI since of intellectual property rights, decades-long civil litigation
26 May 2014. These leaders preside over a bicameral dockets, inadequate transport and agricultural infrastructure,
parliamentary (Sansad) system consisting of the Council of limited non-agricultural employment opportunities, high
States and the People’s Assembly. *Various commentators spending and poorly-targeted subsidies, inadequate availability
observed that the complexity of the Indian political system of quality basic and higher education, and accommodating
is problematic in that it prohibits effective government. “You rural-to-urban migration. The election of Modi represented
have duplication of departments at national, state, and local a tightening of fiscal belts, lowering of the current account
level, which is worsened by the corruption encountered at each deficits and a promise of economic reforms, and resulted in a
level”, observed one commentator. Furthermore, arbitrary surge of inbound capital flows. India today has a $7,3 trillion
enforcement by local officials on the basis of prejudice often GDP, ranking it 9th globally after Italy and before Russia. While
prohibits dynamism and ease of operations. India has a vibrant India has an unemployment rate of only 8,6%. However, as
civil society with dozens of political parties at national and many as 29,8% of the population live below the poverty line.
regional level, various religious associations, separatist groups
seeking greater territorial or regional autonomy. *In addition CULTURAL-RELIGIOUS TRENDS IN INDIA: (5%)
to vibrant political participation, freedom of expression in Three major ethnic groups, the Indo-Aryan (72%), Dravidian
India has been robust and extensively used by a diverse array (25%), Mongoloid and other (3%) (CIA, 2000) constitute
of voices, from religious fringes to intellectuals. While this over fourteen linguistic groups, namely; Hindi (41%), Bengali
typically bodes well for democracy and good governance, (8.1%), Telugu (7.2%), Marathi (7%), Tamil (5.9%), Urdu
in the context of India with its extremely complex society (5%), Gujarati (4.5%), Kannada (3.7%), Malayalam (3.2%),
and hierarchal social strata, vocal civil agency often leads to Oriya (3.2%), Punjabi (2.8%), Assamese (1.3%), Maithili
“us versus them” or “in-group and out-group” rhetoric and (1.2%), other (5.9%). English is largely the national language
polarisation. This is at times taken advantage of by political and used in politics and commerce while Hindi remains the
elites who play on the emotions of social groups, pitting them most widely spoken. According to the 2001 census, Christians
against others, to score political points. constitute only 2.3% of the population, dominated by Hindu
(80.5%) and Muslim (13.4%) groups, and very small Sikh
India is becoming an open-market economy due to reforms (1.9%) and other (1.8%) religious minorities. *There is
seen since the 1990s and achieved an average annual growth of widespread uncertainty as to whether the census results are
7% between 1997-2011 due to liberalisation and privatisation. accurate, probably due to the reluctance by many to disclose
Nearly half of all workers are in the agricultural sector, while their religious identities and due to the political agendas at
services and information technology services as a major export work in government bureaucracies. However, it is estimated
represented two-thirds of growth and only one-third of the that by 2050, India will have the world’s largest populations of
labour force work in those sectors. Growth began to decline Hindus and Muslims (Hackett, 2015, Apr, 21), largely due to the
since 2011 and fell to a decade-low in 2014, resulting in wide younger average age of Muslims and their higher birth rates,
fiscal deficits. This was ascribed to a decline in investment while Hindus remain multiple times more than the second
caused by high interest rates, rising inflation, and investor largest religious cohort. Christians, therefore, will probably
pessimism about the government’s commitment to further experience a relative decline to only 2.2% of the population

GIBS | 23
POPULTION GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S The “school life expectancy is” 12 years, with 71,2% of the
LARGEST RELIGIONS IN INDIA population being literate, while 26,9 million (12%, 206 est.)
children aged 5-14 are used as child labour. Symbolised by the
1.8 BILLION fact that India has 2,5 million places of worship, compared
to 1,5 million schools and 750 000 hospitals, Indians are
1.6 increasingly religious, with the rapidly emerging middle class
in India having seen the rising importance of new age Gurus
1.4
(Jain, 2015). The philosophical notion of cyclical renewal and
regeneration forms an important basis for the generalised
pluralistic society’s worldview and Indian cultural landscape
1.2
(Thakur, n.d). *As a result of this high religious adherence,
the cultural mechanism of “festival” is widely employed in the
1.0
popular discourse, including in the super-affluent enclaves of
0.8 the new globalised elites. There is an apparent shift, having
moved from “Nehruvian socialism”, through “Nehruvian
0.6 secularism” to Hindu Nationalism under the current
administration.
0.4
GOVERNANCE AND REGULATORY
0.2 ENVIRONMENT:
Prime Minister Modi, while an astute businessman with a
0 history loyal to business interests, has an authoritarian and
traditionalist slant (Indo-Asian News Service, 2015, Lasseter
& Mehrotra, 2015), utilising religion locally and abroad, in
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
the context of foreign policy (Vij, 2015) within the strained
India-Pakistan relations and to further a perceived anti
OTHER 2050: 46 MILLION CHANGE: + 5% secularised vision of Hindu Nationalism (Al- Maeena, 2015)
CHRISTIAN 2050: 37 MILLION CHANGE: + 18% and referencing “shared Islamic heritage” in the context of
HINDU 2050: 1.3 BILLION CHANGE: + 33% competing domestic and regional threats from extremism
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

MUSLIM 2050: 311 MILLION CHANGE: + 76% (india.com, 2018, Jul 8). There are also movements toward
the preservation of “Indian heritage” under Modi (Indo-Asia
Other includes: Buddhists, Sikhs, Jains, Jews, adherents of folk religions and News Service, 2015, Jul 18). But some criticise this analysis,
those with no religious affiliation.
stating that remarks by irresponsible Modi supporters “taint”
Source: the future of World Religions: Population growth Projections, 2010-2050 his administration’s “good work”, in terms of their progressive
development agenda (Nashik, 2015) by comments such as
one member of government referring to Muslim children
*by these forecasts, but this discounts the reported conversion as “bastard children” (Burke, 2015, Jan). Even in the use of
rates that are considered to be much higher than the official religion rhetorically, Modi, however, appears concerned
reports indicate. This *forecast, however, is in keeping with about regional economic cooperation and local economic
the global trend that the Muslim community is growing at progress, rather than the propagation or suppression of a
more than twice the rate of the global population, and in the particular religion per se, placing particular emphasis on the
second half of the century, are likely to surpass Christians as development of India’s human capital development (Agence
the largest religious group due to sheer birth rates (Lipka, France-Presse, 2015, Jul, 16). *Thorough assessment of the
2015, Apr 15). Whereas “religious switching” is not expected interplay between rhetoric and practical politics reveal that
to affect Muslims dramatically, around 60 million adherents to Modi’s BJP party’s alliance with the RSS lies at the heart of
Christianity are expected to be lost by 2050 (Lipka, 2015, Apr much of the rising time of concerns about religious intolerance
15). The population is estimated at 1,25 billion (July 2015 est.), from Hindu Nationalists. In many instances, it is the rhetoric,
of which 46,15% are estimated to be under the age of 25. While actions and vigilant (thuggery) violence of RSS sympathisers
this points to high population growth, and the population is set that are simplistically assigned to President Modi and the BJP.
to surpass that of China to be the most populous nation around While there is an obvious and even stated sympathy with the
2022 and to grow to 1,7 billion by 2050, thereafter it is set to RSS, it is not evident that the BJP is driving towards outright
stabilise and even decline to 1,6 billion by 2100 as income per ethnic or religious conflict, rather that the BJP is seeking to
capita rises (Malhotra, 2015, Jul 31). *Notably the vast majority “close the space” for non-Hindu groups and seeking to curtail
of the population belongs to the lower casts, or “outcasts”, their influence on the development of the society. Modi’s
who are therefore unlikely to contribute meaningfully to the religious overtones appear to constitute a form of paternalistic
economy in their lifetime due to extreme poverty, lack of husbandry, extending to issues such as thenation’s cleanliness
education and cultural barriers. India has a very high risk of and self-discipline. There have been signs of a clampdown
infectious disease, especially from waterborne diseases such on corruption and an attempt at “streamlining regulation
as; bacterial diarrhoea, hepatitis A and E, and typhoid fever, and cutting red tape” under Modi (Lasseter & Mehrotra,
which cost the country 200 million person days per year 2015). There are concerns that the aggressive “neo-liberal”
(Saha, 2015, Mar). This is attributable to poor sanitation and policies of PM Modi would amount to the “looting” of India’s
water management systems alongside dense urbanisation. natural resources, while failing to address poverty (Ians,

24 | GIBS
by the Constitution (Datta, 2015, Jan 4). *While the recent anti-
. . . FAR FROM PROPAGATING pluralist trends in politics are widely held to be worse than
RELIGIOUS INTOLERANCE . . . [THE ever, they form part of a cyclical phenomenon whereby such
groups attempted to gain power in the party and failed, used
MILITANT HINDU ORGANISATION, similar tactics, and are now for the first time able to muster
VISHWA HINDU PARISHAD the level of support. As such, it is critical, from an analytical
CLAIM THEY ARE RIGHTING perspective, to question why the growing support exists for the
BJP. Evidently, the desire for and needed economic progress
HISTORICAL WRONGS AND lies at the heart of the issue, with many millions of Indians,
INJUSTICE PERPETRATED BY who are predictably Hindu, having lost faith in the Congress
Party’s ability to deliver on other expectations, now looking
CHRISTIAN MISSIONARIES AND to a party more aligned to their world-view. Problematically,
MUSLIM CLERICS WHO, IN ORDER the “religious freedom” laws amount to a mechanism for
TO BOLSTER THE NUMBERS OF government surveillance and selective patronage in practical
terms, converts having to inform the “district administration”
THEIR RESPECTIVE FAITHS, HAD of their conversion, the State having the power to decide the
LURED AND COERCED HINDUS veracity of the conversion − and whether material benefit,
fraud or theological coercion is involved (Datta, 2015, Jan 4).
TO STRAY FROM THEIR ORIGINAL Furthermore, the laws encourage local community members
RELIGION.” to report the activities of religious leaders, pastors or clergy,
whose activities, if subjectively found to be questionable,
2014). *This environmental concern is mostly held by the are criminalised and punishable by a fine, particularly if
liberal elites, while the mainstream elite support Modi’s converts leave Hinduism and if the converts are women of
economic pragmatism. Furthermore, a sizeable degree of the lower casts. The courts, which preside over the rights
the public outcry over the BJP’s “agenda of intolerance” and and “religious freedom” enshrined in the Constitution, have
authoritarianism can be attributable also to the criticism, for a dubious record of their treatment of Christian conversions
political reasons, of opposition parties now on the outside of versus proselytisation to or back to Hinduism. The contention
government looking in − similarly playing on the prejudices around conversion runs in various directions, with strong
and fears evident among minorities. sentiments (Chakra, 2015, Aug 2) felt over the historic and
current impact of Christian conversion on the culture as well
Apart from Modi’s traditionalist pro-economic-growth agenda, as the role of mass media in representing either the actions of
issues are emerging around religious tolerance and freedom the “fanatical” and “Hindu Nationalist” BJP party, the actions
of religion, particularly as a result of so-called “reconversion” of the “Hindu fundamentalists” and, on the other hand, the
from Christianity of large groups in ceremonies back to widespread conversions through Christian evangelism. *In
their historic Hindu faith communities, with concern being spite of these developments, many Christian organisations
expressed that “some form of coercion may be involved” enjoy amicable relations with local authorities, local
(Burke, 2015, Jan). In some instances, such as in Agra, a town community leaders and communities themselves. This may
in the northern Indian province of Uttar, communal clashed be seen on a case-by-case basis, dependent on; the acumen of
between religious groups have involved the burning of churches the organisation’s leadership in cross-cultural sensitivity and
(Datta, 2015, Jan). According to Human Rights Watch, these diplomacy, the particular social make-up of the community in
events are driven by hardline Hindu groups, such as the Vishnu terms of material wellbeing and cultural/religious persuasion,
Hindu Parishad (VHP) who are pressurising Christian converts and importantly, the presence of activities by so-called
to rectify the spiritual wrongdoing of their conversion to “hardliners” and fundamentalist agitators. It would appear that
Christianity through a “homecoming” to the historic religion those who share the worldview and religious persuasions of PM
of “their country” (Burke, 2015, Jan). *Notably, as observed Modi, especially those on the fringes, have been emboldened
earlier, most of these attacks are localised and isolated, by his rise to power and are seizing the opportunity of the
drawing inspiration from a generalised sense of threat and environment/*climate his leadership is creating to further
alienation between communities. They also seem to follow a their own revivalist agendas in terms of religion. The
familiar pattern of; 1) a tone of suspicion and disgruntlement, aforementioned demographic changes, and accelerated Muslim
2) a local leader or leaders who use rhetoric to incite animosity growth, have caused some in India to call on government to
and 3) a crescendo of group-on-group or group-on-individual “rectify the demographic imbalance” and even for “Hindus to
violence. While officials hold such conversion may not involve have as many children as Muslims” to counter the trend where,
coercion, and parliament acted to prevent further conflict for the first time since the partition from Pakistan, the Hindi
during the Christmas period, notably the groups responsible population has dipped below 80% (Neelakandan, 2015, Apr,
are said to belong to the ruling Bharatiya Janata party of 15). For many Hindus, these shifts represent an “onslaught” or
PM Modi (Burke, 2015, Jan). Notably, parliament further a threat from a looming conflict between the two “Abrahamic”
responded by tabling a proposed national legislation to ban faiths, causing them to call for “Hindu unity” and “proactive,
and criminalise conversions, a move “assertively advocated militant” action, which points to the Muslim League as an
by [Modi’s] Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which commands example (ssrinivas2012, 2015, Jan 25). *From this perspective,
an absolute majority in parliament”, described by some as the Christian community are on the whole collateral damage
“chauvinistic” and “right-wing, the legislation not boding well of the animosity and fears of the two larger ethnic groups. In
for the ideal of religious freedom and secularism as espoused the absence of agitators demonising the Christian minority,

GIBS | 25
CRITICISM HAS BEEN LEVELED AT
THE INFLUX OF CHRISTIAN MISSIONARIES,
WHO EVANGELISE UNDER THE GUISE
OF INVESTMENT IN HUMANITARIAN-
SECULAR COMPASSION, BUT ARE SEEN TO
“MANIPULATE” POOR AND DISADVANTAGED
COMMUNITIES, GOING AS FAR AS GIVING THEM
CHRISTIAN NAMES (CHAKRA, 2015, AUG 2).”
the broader society for centuries has lived in relative peace and clarify what the “national interest” phrase means, which as
tolerance with the Christians. a vague term not defined either in the Act or the rules can be
used to harass organisations, as well as expressing concern
Criticism has been leveled at the influx of Christian over the limitations of the “digitisation” of the Ministry of
missionaries, who evangelise under the guise of investment Home Affairs’ reporting and application processes for such
in humanitarian-secular compassion, but are seen to organisations (Manku, 2015, Jul 1). They expressed concern
“manipulate” poor and disadvantaged communities, going over the amended requirements for; “…organisations [to]
as far as giving them Christian names (Chakra, 2015, Aug 2). notify the MHA within seven days of receipt of any foreign
There is evidence though that public criticism of Christian funds and for banks to notify the ministry within 48 hours if
conversion by Hindu hardliners is often countered by many, an organisation without an FCRAregistered account or prior
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

including Hindus, who view the criticism as an attack on permission certificate receives foreign funding… “… to provide
freedom. There appears, therefore, to be a rising tide of Hindu social media details of their employees, such as Twitter handles
majoritarianism and cultural protectionism, framed as a and Facebook accounts. In addition, … to submit a declaration
“protection of culture” after the mould of Islamic and Muslim every year stating that they have not used the foreign funds
state religion (Chakra, 2015, Aug 2). Having said that, the deep in any activity against national, economic or public interest”.
legacies of Christian institutional development in healthcare In addition, they called for the ministry to show flexibility
and education continue to attract the elites, who want their toward small, grassroot organisations for complying with the
children to enjoy a “quality education” even if the institution digital aspects of the proposed rules (Manku, 2015, Jul 1). Not
is overtly Christian. CSOs and NGO Operating Environment: all in the CSO sector are equally critical of the move though,
(90%) Civil-society organisations (CSOs) and Non-government with T.V. Mohandas Pai, chairman of Manipal Global Education
organisations (NGOs), including the prominent Ford saying, “…Will the US allow its NGOs (non-governmental
Foundation, have found their operations halted by the Modi organisations) to take money from Russia to oppose its war in
administration on the back of accusations of “meddling in Iraq? They will not do that. Will the UK allow Chinese money to
domestic affairs” (Reuters, 2015, Jul 14). This emerged after come into a non-governmental organisation to fight for the UK
a leaked “Intelligence Bureau” claimed that foreign interests to remain in the European Union? No, they will not. So, we have
were seeking to undermine India’s economic progress. While to be careful about this and not bash the government every
the clampdown in the case of the Ford Foundation appeared time such an issue arises. As citizens of this country, we should
to target a “vocal Modi critic”, the consequence has been the take a call whether we want overseas money to come to India
prevention of funding channeled to welfare projects aimed and fund some NGOs and push an agenda that they have…”
at fighting child marriage, providing clean water in slums (Chowdhry, 2015, Jun 15) Among actions taken in response,
and feeding pregnant woman (Reuters, 2015, Jul 14). This has some NGOs have encouraged their patrons not to use terms
coincided with a de-registration of thousands of charities who such as “governance,” “advocacy” or “human rights” in reports
receive foreign funding, particularly criticised for interfering and proposals in order to avoid raising undesired scrutiny.
in domestic projects on the grounds of environmental issues, Some of those affected have united and approached the courts
and these have seen their bank accounts frozen and being for protection against what is perceived to be draconian action
added to a watch-list. This seems motivated by a combination and to combat the “trust deficit” that seems to be emerging
of Modi’s authoritarian approach, a willingness to take on between government and CSOs. In contrast, strong support
opponents and a desire for rapid movement on policy terms has been enjoyed by particular NGOs from PM Modi for
for economic development, with the actions being taken projects relating to the proposed construction of millions of
under the guise of the “national interest” (Reuters, 2015, Jul toilets in India to prevent the spread of disease through poor
14). Some CSOs and NGOs, under the auspices of Voluntary hygiene practices, the champion of the project calling Modi “…
Action Network India (VANI) and others under Alternate probably the world’s biggest champion of toilets” (Shan, 2015,
Law Forum (ALF), have called on Modi’s government to Jun, 22).

26 | GIBS
GIBS | 27
KEY DRIVERS AND
BASELINE SCENARIO
LOGIC
Key Drivers and Baseline Scenario Logic

Rising Hindu Nationalism Macro Environment

Authoritarian & Traditionalist


“Preservation of Heritage” Regional Pressures (Pakistan)

Hindu Revivalism
Democratic (Vibrant & Vocal)
Emergent / Grassroots Mandates)

Sensitivity to Economic Focus Natural Resource


“Domestic Availability National Environment
Meddling”
Ecological Pressures
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Urbanisation
Poor Infrastructure Economic Dynamism
Poor Access to Justice
Growing Population
Rising Education
People Youth “Bulge”
Diversity (Religious, Cultural)
Poor Health Poverty (1/4)
Religious and Superstitious Upward Mobility
Entrepreneurial
Rising Traditionalist Fringe Pollution
Gender Discrimination Widespread
Hinduism’s Relative Decline English
CSO/NGO Scrutiny Increasingly Muslim Usage
(Monitoring) Emigration

Legislative Settlement
Religious (Communal) Conflict
Anti-Conversion Sentiment

Religious Freedom Under Threat


Patronage (Structural Discrimination)
Government “Surveillance”

Closing of “Civil Declining Trust CSO/NGO Diplomacy?


Society” Space”

28 | GIBS
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Shan, H. P. (2015, Jun, 22). Mr Toilet to build 6 million loos in
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ssrinivas2012, (2015, Jan 25). Achieving Hindu unity.


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Thakur, N. (n.d). Indian Cultural Landscapes: Religious


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IC STAKEHOLDER CONSIDERATIONS
Evangelical Fellowship of India
New India Evangelical Association
Indian Mission Association
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Assembly of God Theological Seminary


World Vision
OC International
Olive Technology
JesusCentral
Maclellan Foundation
First Fruit, Inc.
Grove Group
Bolthouse Foundation
Nordick Foundation
Cornerstone Trust
Harry J. Lloyd Trust
Expat Group

30 | GIBS
GIBS | 31
CONTEXTUAL SCENARIOS STUDY, INDIA: TRENDS SHAPING THE NGO SECTOR EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

32 | GIBS

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