The State of the Nation

31 October 2018

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
Complex System Stable Unstable
Open Closed

Political

Dynamic Stagnant
Diversified Homogeneous
Inclusive Economic Extractive

Tolerant Intollerant
Inclusive Conservative
Socio-Cultural

Favorable Unfavorable
Geographic
Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 The Evolution of SA’s Political Economy

Planned

State Centrally Planned

Capitalism Economy

Capable &
Ma
nu ANC Developmental
fac
tur State?
ing
SO
4. Es
Private ur
e Apartheid Public
Sector-Led ult (1948-1994) Sector -Led
ric
Ag
3.
Union of SA
(1910-1948)
s
i nin
g
vice
M 2. er
S
British
Free Market
Colonialism
Capitalism (1815-1910)
1. 5. State Drives Enablers
Dutch Democracy and Factors of
Colonisation (1994-Current)
(1652-1815) Competitiveness only
Mercantilism

Emergent

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 State of SA’s Institutions

Civil Society
Constitution Chapter 9 Institutions

Media
Judiciary Legislature Executive

NPA National Departments

Hawks Police Provincial Competencies

SIU
Local Gov. Delivery

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 A Crisis of Dependancy

28 million direct 38 million

dependants working age

57 million
population

16,4 million
working
x4

7 million formally
employed 17 million on
Social Grants

6,2 million unemployed

2,7 million discouraged

Marius Oosthuizen
oosthuizenm@gibs.co.za
@marius_oost
 Gov. Expenditure and Fiscal Position

Medium Term
Budget Policy
Pub Statement:
Ser
Deb Edu • Slow Growth GDP 0,7%
(1,6% av. 2012 - 2017)
Soc • Revenue Shortfalls
Eco & • Deficit 4,3%
Agri • Debt to GDP, 55,8%
Hea
(2018/2019)
Loc
• Structural Reforms?
Sec Inf
• SOE bailouts, guarantees
R670billion
56% on • Default, Ratings, Election
Social 2019
Services • 15% of budget to service
debt

“Between 2006/07 and 2017/18, compensation spending

on the main budget more than tripled from R154bn to
R480bn. (Inflation 40%, rise in employment, 60%)” Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 Political Economy and Centralisation of Power

Pluralist Multi-party
Cronyism
democracy
Plutocratic State Capture
Oligopolistic
Indépendant
Elitist
Oligopoly Institutions
(Iran)

1-Party State / Unequal

Oligopoly
Monarchy Society

Political Domain Business Domain Civil Society

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 Imbalance of Forces

Liberation (NDR)
State Capture, Cronyism, Capitalism
ANC Cadre Deployment, Oligopoly,
Unequal Distribution BigBusines
Monopoly Capital

BB

Keynseanism

DA
EFF Media
Socialism
Unions
Traditional
Churches Leaders
Traditionalism

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 SA’s Settlement Patterns

Urban 60-70%
Cities
Secondary Cities
Towns

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost
 The Role of the Churches?

Leadership New Models of

Community &
Moral Clarity & Enterprise
Vision
Catalyst
Accountability
for Change
Voice Activist
Restoration Restitution
Prophetic Witness
Nation Building

Marius Oosthuizen
marius@thecusp.co.za
@marius_oost