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Morning Briefing

Strategies and Investment Ideas from CFRA

November 2, 2018

MARKET FOCUS
Futures Higher
• This morning, S&P 500 index futures are pointing to a positive market opening
OVERNIGHT UPDATES when trading begins today.

• U.S. equity market stocks were higher at the end of trading Thursday, with the S&P
Europe higher. Tokyo rose 500 index settling at 2,740.37 for the close. The index saw an increase of 1.06
2.56%. Hong Kong rose percent for the day.
4.21%. Shanghai rose
2.7%. • Chevron Corp (CVX 111 ****) is set to report third-quarter results. CFRA is
projecting earnings of $2.12 per share, while Capital IQ Consensus expects $2.06
per share. The company posted earnings per share of $1.03 for Q3 last year.
BONDS: 10-year notes at
3.17%, 30-year bonds at • In its third-quarter earnings announcement, CFRA is expecting Exxon Mobil Corp
3.408%. (XOM 81 ***) to post earnings per share of $1.29 vs. $0.93 for the like period one
year ago. Capital IQ Consensus expectations are for earnings of $1.22 per share.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE: In the second quarter, XOM generated earnings of about $4.0 billion, down 15%
Euro at $1.1431, Sterling at from the first quarter, with declines in each of its three major business lines.
$1.3025, Dollar at 112.89 Upstream earnings were $3.0 billion, down about $0.46 billion sequentially, with
yen. seasonal declines in Europe natural gas demand a key culprit. Meanwhile,
downstream earnings of $0.72 billion fell about $0.21 billion, largely on planned
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold downtime at XOM's refineries. However, on a positive note, XOM's U.S. tight oil
at $1,236.80. production in the Permian and Bakken Shale plays grew 25% in the second
quarter, underscoring the high growth potential coming from the U.S. Lower 48.
ENERGY: WTI crude at • Duke Energy (DUK 82 ****) is due to release third-quarter results, with CFRA
$63.43, London Brent crude looking for per-share earnings of $1.63, vs. earnings of $1.36 for the same quarter
at $72.66. one year ago and Capital IQ Consensus estimates of earnings per share of $1.51.

• CFRA MAINTAINS BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF APPLE INC. (AAPL 222 ****):
AAPL posts Sep-Q EPS of $2.91 vs. $2.07, beating the $2.78 S&P Capital IQ
consensus. Revenue rose 20% to $62.9B, exceeding our view of $61.5B, led by
29% in iPhone sales. While we were encouraged by better-than-expected iPhone
average selling prices (+28%), we note unit shipments of 46.9M (+0.5%) missed
CFRA expectations. Although Mac sales grew 3% and iPad sales declined 15%, we see
better results in the Dec-Q given announced product refreshes earlier this week.
MarketScope Advisor Services grew 17%, but decelerated from recent quarters on tougher comparisons
· Investment Research
given one-time benefits a year ago. Other hardware sales grew an impressive
· News & Commentary
31%. We view China growth of 16% as a positive and note share repurchases of
· Insight & Analysis
$19.1B. Although Dec-Q revenue guidance ($89B-$93B) was a disappointment
· Tools & Screeners
versus consensus at $92.9B, we are optimistic about AAPL's ability to generate
substantial free cash flow via stable iPhone sales, see healthy Services growth and
www.marketscope.com
like its ongoing intent to return significant cash to shareholders. /Angelo Zino
1-800-220-0502
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Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright ©2018 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice
@cfraresearch and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report.
Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment
strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from
such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally
invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the
publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless
otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
EQUITY RESEARCH
Opinion Raised On Shares of FLIR Systems

U.S.
11/01/2018

• CFRA LIFTS RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF FLIR SYSTEMS, INC. (FLIR 48 ****)


TO BUY FROM HOLD: We drop our 12-month target to $55 from $63 on a P/E of 22.6X our
'19 EPS estimate, in line with historical averages. We keep our '18 EPS estimate of $2.22
and '19's EPS of $2.43 on its reaffirmed '18 outlook. FLIR posts Q3 EPS of $0.57 vs. $0.52,
$0.01 better than consensus on operating leverage and a lower effective tax rate (ETR).
Revenues of $435M were down 6% (+3% organically), shy of the $445M consensus. In our
view, difficult comparables from '17 and divestitures have largely masked progress with its
newly deployed operating model. We think the pause in revenue growth has now been
largely baked into shares following recent pressure, but eventually, investors realize
productivity gains and favorable mix from its new pricing model have started to set in
(operating margin widened 260 bps to 24.4% in Q3). Despite the wind-down of the DR-SKO
contract creating lumpy trends in Government and Defense, book-to-bill is on the rise (1.2X),
suggesting new wins are driving steady backlog. /David Holt

Europe
11/01/2018

• CFRA RAISES OPINION ON SHARES OF SANOFI (SAN FP, EUR78.84 ****) TO BUY
FROM HOLD: We raise our 12-month target price for Sanofi (SAN) to EUR87 (EUR75) as we
roll forward our valuation, implying 15x 2019 P/E, largely in line with its 5-year historical
forward P/E mean. We raise our 2018 EPS estimate to EUR5.50 (EUR5.45) as 3Q 2018
results came in above estimates. 3Q 2018 net sales grew by +6.3% at constant exchange
rates (9M 2018: +2.1%), with growth in Specialty Care (consolidation of Bioverativ) and
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Vaccines (recovery in Pentaxim supply in China) offset the weaknesses in Diabetes &
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Cardiovascular (loss of exclusivity of Lantus in the U.S.) and Established Rx Products


(generic competition in the U.S.). SAN provided a narrower range for its 2018 core EPS
growth guidance of 4-5% at CER from 3-5% previously, with currency impact estimated to be
around -6%. All in, we are positive on the latest result which saw positive growth (CER) after
a few quarters of declines and find the stock's risk reward profile to be on the upside at its
current level. /W. Nurhayati

Equity research is available on the Research Notes page on MarketScope Advisor at


http://advisor.marketscope.com.

For advisors interested in subscription and pricing information to MarketScope Advisor,


http://advisor.marketscope.com, or for retail investors interested in The Outlook,
https://www.cfraoutlook.com, please contact the sales team at 1(800) 220-0502 or
NOVEMBER 02, 2018

cservices@cfraresearch.com.
NOVEMBER 02, 2018

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analyst judgment, and the extent to which some types of data
Glossary is disclosed by companies.
STARS
Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research 12-Month Target Price
Services, and its predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research The equity analyst's projection of the market price a given
has ranked a universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs security will command 12 months hence, based on a
(American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for valuation metrics, including Fair Value.
future performance. Similarly, we have ranked Asian and
European equities since June 30, 2002. Under proprietary CFRA Equity Research
STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), equity CFRA Equity Research is produced and distributed by
analysts rank equities according to their individual forecast of Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA ("CFRA
an equity's future total return potential versus the expected US"). Certain research is distributed by CFRA UK Limited
total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional index (together with CFRA US, "CFRA"). Certain research is
(S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® produced by Standard & Poor's Malaysia Sdn. Bhd ("CFRA
Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was Malaysia") under contract to CFRA US.
designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their
investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports
determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
analyst's own models as well as internal proprietary models CAPEX - Capital Expenditures
resulting from dynamic data inputs. CY - Calendar Year
DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Rank DDM - Dividend Discount Model
(also known as S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
Rankings) - Growth and stability of earnings and dividends EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and
are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Global Market Amortization
Intelligence's earnings and dividend rankings for common EPS - Earnings Per Share
stocks, which are designed to capsulize the nature of this EV - Enterprise Value
record in a single symbol. It should be noted, however, that FCF - Free Cash Flow
the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments FFO - Funds From Operations
and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such FY - Fiscal Year
rankings. The final score for each stock is measured against a P/E - Price/Earnings
scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores of a large P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value PEG Ratio - P/E-to-
and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in Growth Ratio PV - Present Value
the array of this sample has been aligned with the following R&D - Research & Development ROCE - Return on Capital
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ladder of rankings: Employed ROE - Return on Equity


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A+ Highest B Below Average ROI - Return on Investment


A High B- Lower ROIC - Return on Invested Capital
A- Above Average C Lowest ROA - Return on Assets
B+ Average D In Reorganization SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
NR Not Ranked SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts
WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
EPS Estimates
CFRA’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and
projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid
generally exclude various items that are viewed as special, in the country of origin).
non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect
either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) Qualitative Risk Assessment
EPS estimate, which are independently compiled by S&P Reflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's
Global Market Intelligence, a data provider to CFRA. Among operational risk, or the risk of a firm's ability to continue as an
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale ongoing concern. The Qualitative Risk Assessment is a
NOVEMBER 02, 2018

gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges;


NOVEMBER 02, 2018

relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should be


legal and insurance settlements; in process research and reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as
development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment opposed to risk and volatility measures associated with share
of debt; the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and prices. For an ETF this reflects on a capitalization-weighted
earnings related to operations that have been classified by the basis, the average qualitative risk assessment assigned to
company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such holdings of the fund.
as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges,
may vary, and depend on such factors as industry practice,

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STARS Ranking system and definition:
★★★★★ 5-STARS (Strong Buy):
Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12
months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 4-STARS (Buy):
Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares
rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 3-STARS (Hold):
Total return is expected to closely approximate the total
return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months,
with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 2-STARS (Sell):
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share
price not anticipated to show a gain.
★★★★★ 1-STAR (Strong Sell):
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12
months, with shares falling in price on an absolute basis.

Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500
Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are
the S&P Europe 350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index,
respectively.
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NOVEMBER 02, 2018
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Disclosures About CFRA Equity Research's Distributors:
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trademark is S&P Global Inc. or its affiliate, which are not by Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA
affiliated with CFRA Research or the author of this content. (“CFRA US”), with the following exceptions: In the
UK/EU/EEA, it is published and originally distributed by
Stocks are ranked in accordance with the following ranking CFRA UK Limited, which is regulated by the Financial
methodologies: Conduct Authority (No. 775151), and in Malaysia by
Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., which is regulated by
STARS Stock Reports: Securities Commission Malaysia, (No. CMSL/A0181/2007)
Qualitative STARS recommendations are determined and under license from CFRA US. These parties and their
assigned by equity analysts. For reports containing STARS subsidiaries maintain no responsibility for reports
recommendations refer to the Glossary section of the report redistributed by third parties such as brokers or financial
for detailed methodology and the definition of STARS advisors.
rankings.
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universe of common stocks based on 5 measures or model
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quantitative recommendations refer to the Glossary section of accuracy of the translation. The content of this report and the
the report for detailed methodology and the definition of opinions expressed herein are those of CFRA based upon
Quantitative rankings. publicly-available information that CFRA believes to be
reliable and the opinions are subject to change without notice.
STARS Stock Reports and Quantitative Stock Reports: This analysis has not been submitted to, nor received approval
The methodologies used in STARS Stock Reports and from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission
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subsidiaries. All of the views expressed in STARS Stock


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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future


Reports accurately reflect the research analyst's personal results.
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