Economic and Political Weekly Vol. 47, No. 3, JANUARY 21, 2012

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JANUARY 21, 2012 | vol xlvii no 3
Repairing the Lokpal Bill editorials

10 "Civil society" should keep the fundamentals of the art of negotiation in The Tender Mercies of Mamata
mind and not claim propriety over the movement and exclude other The Lokpal and the CBI
well-known campaigners. Dealing with a Deadly Killer
Looking beyond Durban: Where To From Here? FROM 5<> years ago 9
13 The post-Durban process promises to be a long one; India should therefore set commentary
objectives, and develop a legal and political strategy to achieve them. Repairing the Lokpal Bill- Sriram Panchu
Looking beyond Durban: Where To From H

Bill on Sexual Harassment: Against Women's Rights -NavrozKDubash
18 The "Protection of Women against Sexual Harassment

sees such harassment not as a criminal offence but as a mere civil wrong. Against Women's Rights- Geetha К К
Some Thoughts on the Macroeconomi

Some Thoughts on the Macroeconomics Curriculum in India Curriculum in India- G visakh Varma
22 The economics syllabi in Indian universities since Independence first co

post-Keynesian economics and then shifted to market-driven ideologies. - Sukanya Bose
Cases of heterodox Keynesian economics are rare. Greece Crisis: The Story of the Un-Representative
Democracy - Dionysios С Watson
Inflation: Sources, Challenges and Policy Option

27 Despite the range of monetarist, micro-behavioural and cost-push -Shanta Gokhale
explanations for the current episode of inflation, there was
„„л», FROM THE STATES о™™*
at a seminar in New Delhi that monetary tightening had failed to have its рцфЬ; Famjly Business-Da(,it Ami
desired impact.
BOOK REVIEWS
Greece Crisis: The Story of the Un-Representative Democracy a Living Faith: My Que
30 There is no evidence of a transformation of eu governance in a direction that Social Change -A
will allow citizens to have a direct effect on the political platforms pursued Asghar Ali Engineer -
by its governing bodies. Jôti Punwani
Agrarian Crisis an
Satyadev Dubey: Director o

32 A tribute to the man who directed more than 100 plays in Hindi, Marathi, Dhanmanjiri Sat e
„ . Jr, t. u Hands-on Intermediate Econometrics Using R:

Gujarati „ . and Jr, English t. u over 50 years. Templat
Examples- R for Econometrics
Punjab: Family Business -Neera] Hatekar 40
34 The situation in Punjab shows that a ruling class clan is emerging, tightly knit
with blood and social relations, loyalty, and business interests. insight
A 'Normal' Anomaly: Displacement Due to
Displacement Due to Communal Violence in Gujarat Communal violence in Gujarat
42 A re-look at the fate of Muslims who fled their homes in Gujarat during the -Sanjeevini Badigar
2002 violence. Is it migration or displacement? special articles
Growth in India's States in the First Decade
Growth in India's States in the First Decade of the 21st Century of the 21st Century: Fo
48 Four key findings emerge on examining the growth performance across - Utsav Kumar, Arvind Subramanian
Indian states during 2001-09, a period also marked by the global Integrating
financial crisis. Tê Scholarship of D D Kosambi
- Ramakrishna Ramaswamy
Integrating Mathematics and History: Schola

58 DD Kosambi was a member of an elite group o
mathematical approach to analyse phenomena that were classified as too K Veâ VfeíupiíZať
"human" and not subject to the tools of analytic theories. notes
A Note on the Methodology for Measuring Labour
On the Mathematisation Of Economics Input from Company Databases
63 A summary of the emergence of Bourbakism and its recent demise as well - isha Chawla
as how it played a destructive role in mathematising economics in

j DISCUSSION
non- constructive mode. j . . . л
Mining . . in . Goa: л Beyond
Measuring Labour Input from Company Databases -Rahul Basu

69 A note on measuring labour input in Indian industry. current statistics
Mining in Goa: Beyond Forest Issues letters 4

77 A comment on "Missing the Woods for the Ore: Goa's Development Myopia
by Pranab Mukhopadhyay and Gopal К Kadekodi (epw, 12 November 2011). notes for contributors
Economic&PoliticalwEEKLY
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EPW has been India's premier journal for Regional Bias women out of public spaces ostensibly
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and research in the social sciences.
on grounds of ensuring their safety by
It succeeded Economic Weekly (1949-1965), its very nature makes the public world
which was launched and shepherded
Science
The Science roleResearch (icssr)theinIndian
of Research promot-
(icssr) Council in of promot- Social more unsafe for them. It does so by
by Sachin Chaudhuri,
who was also the founder-editor of epw. ing and guiding social science research implicitly accepting as legitimate and
As editor for thirty-five years (1969-2004) in India has come in for a lot of criticism inherent the masculinity of these spaces,
Krishna Raj
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the report on the icssr authored by the gress the unofficial rules seem like fair
С RAMMANOHAR REDDY committee consisting of Deepak Nayyar, game for violence.
DEPUTY EDITOR
Bakul Dholakia and Kirit Parikh. The key The article's description of hostel life on
BERNARD D'ANELLO policymaking body of the icssr is its Indian campuses today is reminiscent of us
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council which consists of 18 social scien- universities' women's hostels in the 1950s,
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LINA MATHIAS
constituted in 2007, its members were
movements and patrolling their sexuality.
ANIKET ALAM
SRINIVASAN RAMANI regionally distributed as follows: 10 from Yet the way safety is cited to control
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women's movements is not just an issue
New Delhi and one from Madhya Pradesh,
BHARATI BHARGAVA
on Indian campuses, but in all public
four from the south, three from the west
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and one from the north-east. There were spaces, where women are seen as "asking
PRABHA PILLAI
JYOTI SHETTY no members from the east, i e, from for trouble" if they move out of tightly
ASSISTANT EDITOR Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West defined boundaries.
P S LEELA
Bengal. The ex officio members were all This deeply-rooted attitude was most
PRODUCTION from New Delhi. When this was pointed blatantly revealed after the 2008 murder
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out to Javeed Alam, the then chairman, in New Delhi of the young tv journalist
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SUNEETHI NAIR he explained that regional distribution Soumya Vishwanathan, who was killed
CIRCULATION
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that the imbalance was likely to be cor- response by New Delhi's Chief Minister
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edit@epw.in members are distributed as follows: 13 rape cases.
CIRCULATION from New Delhi and one from Chandigarh, Making women safer should not require
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ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL WEEKLY
One of the strongest indictments made to accept women's legitimate place in the
320-321, A TO Z INDUSTRIAL ESTATE
GANPATRAO KADAM MARG, LOWER PAREL in the Nayyar-Dholakia-Parikh committee public world. Of course, even this cannot
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Regressive Attitudes
Printed by К Vijayakumar at Modern Arts and Industries,
151, A-Z Industrial Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, patnamthePort
In patnam nameTrust
Port (vpt) management,
of Trust development, (vpt) management, the Visakha-
Lower Parel, Mumbai-400013 and Your pus:pus:insightful Negotiating
Negotiating Spaces andarticle Spaces "Women and Silences" on Cam-
Silences" particularly Chairman Ajay Kallam, is going
published by him on behalf of Sameeksha Thist
from 320-321, A-Z Industrial Estate,
(epw, 31 December 2011) reveals the terrible to destroy the old town of Visakhapatnam
Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai-400013. self-reinforcing cycle in India that makes consisting of Kota Veedhi, Ambusarang
Editor: С Rammanohar Reddy.
the country so hostile to women. Keeping Veedhi and other places. The coal dust,
4 January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Ш5Э Economic & Political WEEKLY
sulphur dioxide, iron ore and other pollut- they are skilled in none. Mere tokenism
into three pieces in order to carve a road
ants emanating from the port were caus- like awarding medals for bravery or setting
facility for the expansion of the port. Now,
ing health hazards to local inhabitants, in- the port chairman wants the people of upold
of investigation commissions to give a
cluding fisherfolk, and adversely affecting closure will not be helpful until stringent
town - nearly 30,000 to 40,000 - to vacate
the ecology. Cargo general berths are con- the place. The majority of the peopleandare
sincere steps are taken to avoid such
structed adjacent to the old town. The fisherfolk who are dependent on thehuman-made
sea catastrophes in the future.
coking coal is dumped from a height of for their livelihoods. If they are displaced
Sriti Ganguly
more than 20 feet resulting in lighter coke and sent to faraway places, they willDELHI
be
particles spreading into the atmosphere deprived of their livelihoods and the reli-
causing high pollution. The coke so dumped Bhupen
gious harmony and secular fabric nourished Hazarika
is not covered with tarpaulins. Sprinkling over the years will suffer.
of water is not done adequately to control Already the entire green vegetation
the air pollution. Further, the new berths ArupjyotiHazarika"
around the port is spoiled and the people Hazarika"(epw,
Saikia's (epw, 172011)
17 December "Genius
is December of Bhupen 2011) is
added to vpt had been causing salinity of laudable. Saikia's description of Bhupen
are suffering from breathlessness, chest
the groundwater in the residential areas Hazarika as a genius is quite apt. At the
congestion, throat infections, lung problems,
in the locality. young age of 13 he could write and
asthma and many other serious health
After liberalisation in the 1990s, the vpt problems and further expansion of compose
thea song himself and recorded his
started handling the dusty and dangerous first song in 1936 when he was merely
port will be a death trap. The port handled
cargoes - coal, sulphur, ammonium nitrate, 10 years old.
21.50 million tonnes in 1991-92, 65 million
etc - refused by other ports. Even as the tonnes in 2009-10 and now wants to handle Hazarika was unparalleled so far as his
people of Visakhapatnam are suffering due 100 million tonnes in the year 2013 at artistic
anyattributes were concerned. Not
to heavy pollution, Kallam recently anno- cost. The resultant human sacrifice is merely
of a well-versed classical singer, he
unced further expansion with an expendi- was also a lyricist, composer, poet, writer
no consequence to the chairman of the port
ture of Rs 1,500 crore to create a modern authority. Those who benefited fromandthe
filmmaker of great quality. It is hard
and "clean" port. He assured the public to find an artiste of his calibre and dedica-
liberalisation and development projects
that pollution will be drastically reduced have coined the label "city of destiny" tion
but who could write, compose and sing
with the installation of modern equip- songs for his own films and win national
Visakhapatnam is fast turning into a "city
ment. But nobody believes his assurances. of slow death". awards.
In April 2010, he said that he will bring His writings and compositions are not
We request democratic-minded people
foam sprayers from Italy at any cost and limited
and institutions to support the struggles ofto a particular period of time or
the pollution will be reduced within a society. They are universal as well as eternal,
the people of the old town in Visakhapatnam
year. Already one year and seven months though they had the touch of his home-
for their right to life. They should demand
has lapsed and pollution has increased that the concerned government authori- land and time. He was a compassionate
severalfold instead of the promised reduc- ties stop pollution, preserve the old town, whose compositions reflected
humanist
tion. Further, the Hindustan Petroleum, people's
and protect the traditional livelihoods ofweal and woes. He was an artiste
National Thermal Power Corporation and the people residing there. of the masses who found inspiration and
some pharmaceutical enterprises are dump- P V Ramana solace in his songs.
ing their toxic waste materials into the Andhra Pradesh Civil Liberties Committee Hazarika wrote and sang in Assamese,
sea and open lands. At many places, the
VISAKHAPATNAM
but his Bengali and Hindi songs were
groundwater is becoming saline. Recently, equally popular. In 1978, he won the pres-
a huge quantity of fish perished due to Disaster Management tigious "golden disc" for his Bengali album
toxic pollutants. ami ak jajabor from hmv. In recognition
Communal harmony has prevailed in to his popularity, the Bangladesh govern-
Visakhapatnam city which evolved from This by by Rajashriwith
is Rajashri Dasgupta (epw,Dasgupta
reference 14 Janu-
to "Death (epw, by 14 Smoke" Janu- ment announced the country's highest
the old town. Many historical monuments ary 2012). As she aptly points out, how many civilian award to this worthy son of India,
and institutions - the Issac Madina Darga more tragedies should befall us before posthumously. He was honoured with the
built in 1200 ad, the Ambusarang Masjid we actually start taking serious steps to "Dadasaheb Phalke" award in 1993 and
constructed in 1844, St Aloysius High secure the safety of people in institutions the Padmabhushan in 2001.
School built in 1847, St John's Church con- like schools, hospitals and cinema theatres? Definitely he was beyond barriers. And
structed by Sir Arthur Cotton in 1844 - are Why is the state of disaster management perhaps because of this, when the news of
situated in the old town. It has an abysmal in this country? It is extremely his demise came in, people of all walks of
necessary
8oo-year-old burial ground for Muslims. It for the staff in such institutions
life were shocked and came out unprece-
was the only point in the world where to undergo some kind of training in disaster dentedly to pay their gratitude to this
places of worship of Christians, Hindus preparedness
and and management. Training great soul.
Muslims existed on one single hill, ini both
e,preventive and curative measures Navanita Medhi
GUWAHATI
Ross Hill. Decades back, the hill was should
cutgo hand in hand. Unfortunately,
Economic & Political weekly ШШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^
/';-=09 )(8* =-0/']
= Economic&PoliticalwEEKLY
JANUARY 21, 2012
The Tender Mercies of Mamata
Will the Trinamool Congress manage to pull off the high stakes game it is playing in West Bengal?
economic use. Whether it is colleges or offices, theatre spaces or

▼ Д Xest Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (тмс)
'l'l President Mamata Banerjee has told the Congress schools, the тмс is focused on uprooting the influence of the
w V Party that it is free to walk out of their alliance bothcpi(m) and bringing these places under its control.
in the state as well as at the centre. This startling commentIn this, Mamata Banerjee and her party seem to be following a
about the Congress comes after a series of events, again both two-pronged
at strategy. At one level they are attacking the cpi(m)
the centre and the state, which has pushed the alliance to
cadre and breaking the networks of influence and power the party
the brink. Given that it is just about nine months since the
had built up over the past three decades. At another level, the
TMC-Congress alliance came to power in West Bengal and that
тмс also has to win over the large mass of left sympathisers, who
the тмс has had a fairly good run with its demands at the
have voted and supported the lf all these years but who are now
centre, this does appear somewhat perplexing. While there
disillusioned and unhappy with the cpi(m). This section of the
was palpable anger directed at the Communist Party of India
population of West Bengal has left-wing sensibilities and its sup-
(Marxist) (cpi(M))-led Left Front (lf) government of 34 years
port to the cpi(m) all these years was because it felt that this party,
which led to a massive mandate to Mamata and her alliance in despite all its other failings, was putting forward a left position on
a range of issues. Mamata Banerjee and the Congress have always
the assembly elections in 2011, it should not be forgotten that the
cpi(m) and the lf retain a substantial chunk of popular supportgot the anti-LF votes in West Bengal's highly polarised polity. A
successful challenge to the lf was possible only when the тмс
- enough for them to stage a comeback if they manage their
politics right, or, more crucially, if Mamata gets her politics managed to harness a large chunk of the left-wing section of
wrong. Politically, too, for her to retain public support it wouldWest Bengal's population. This left vote, which has deserted the
lf, is of the marginal voter who will keep the тмс-Congress
seem necessary for her to get the administrative machinery
working and address issues like public health and education,government in power.
which were neglected by the previous dispensation. It is Mamata Banerjee's need to retain this support base which
explains much of the tmc's recent politics in New Delhi. By
However, since taking charge of Writers' Building there is
little evidence that Mamata Banerjee's administration is invest-seeming to adopt the "Left agenda" and outdoing the cpi(m) and
other left parties in its opposition to foreign direct investment in
ing the time and thought necessary to address these and other
issues. What we have witnessed is a series of moves to entrench retail, or on the issue of pension funds or even on the issue of
her political gains, strengthen her organisation and cut the protecting the states' rights in the Lokpal Bill, Mamata Banerjee
support bases of both the cpi(m) as well as the Congress. Evenis sending a signal to this left voter who is disillusioned with the
before the elections, large sections of the cpi(m) rank and filecpi(m) that supporting her does not entail abandoning her/his
had shifted to the тмс. This was significant since much of favoured political positions. Rather, she is sending a message
that for her this left voter is more important than the alliance
the cpi(m)'s political power came from the widespread presence
of its cadre in all institutions, localities and public spaces.with the Congress.
After coming to power, Mamata Banerjee has concentrated on With this the тмс is doing two things at the same moment.
cementing this shift and breaking the hold of the cpi(m) on the One, it is cementing its support among a section of the left voters
state's institutions and public spaces. She has also invested in
in West Bengal and, two, by pushing the Congress into a corner it
spectacles like the agreement with the Gorkha Janamukti is managing to capture both the government as well as opposition
Morcha, which did not resolve the Gorkhaland issue but only
space in the state. That this strategy has been relatively success-
ful is evident from the manner in which the cpi(m) has been unable
postponed the problem for it to erupt again at a later date. Her
handling of the Singur case too was akin to a spectacle where to mount a political challenge to the тмс government despite its
she returned the land, which had been given to the Tatas and onfairly lacklustre performance so far. However, Mamata's strong
which they have already constructed large buildings, to theoppositional pitch, especially in Parliament, is also tempting the
Congress to think in terms of finding a replacement ally at the
original owners who can grow nothing there nor put it to any
Economic & Political weekly ИЗИ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 7
EDITORIALS
centre and much talk has started on the outcome of the Uttar difficult to forecast the outcome of such brinkmanship, which has
Pradesh elections. Though a break is unlikely at the present junc-unfortunately become all too common in Indian politics. But
ture, any such development at the centre may actually upset thehowever successful her brinkmanship, sooner rather than later
TMC game plan, especially if it does not lead to mid-term generalMamata Banerjee may find that she will have to pay for her
elections which are expected to increase the tmc's tally. It is
neglect of basic issues.
The Lokpal and the CBI
The Lokpal Bill deals with the issue of autonomy of investigation in anti-corruption cases with half-measures.
personnel and the law ministry). And the Lokpal has been trans-
punish the corrupt would be the autonomy of the agency ferred powers for a certain class of public officials similar to
The punish carryingcarrying
key tooutthetheoutinvestigation
the corrupt that
successwouldthefeed
investigation
into a would of any be organisation the that autonomy would that of feed the sets agency into out to a the cvc Act of 2003 that bestowed such powers to the cvc over
judicial process. On that count the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill of the cbi. The Lokpal is seen then as just one more of the many
гон, which has been passed by the Lok Sabha but is yet to agencies that are to be involved in anti-corruption and not given
be approved by the Rajya Sabha, fails miserably. The disinclina- any primacy.
tion of the central government to provide the Lokpal with an Besides, the Lokpal will not be able to provide directions to
independent investigation machinery is more than apparent. the cbi during its investigations. By reducing the role of the
What better way to have an ineffective Lokpal than to deprive it Lokpal to a superintendent of sorts and not giving it any powers
of either an independent investigation agency or supervision of supervision, and providing the government full operational
over investigation? control over the cbi, the Bill sees to it that the powers of the Lokpal
The need for a Lokpal had evoked widespread support not only are largely constrained. As argued in the article "Repairing the
because of growing corruption in high places but also because Lokpal Bill" elsewhere in these columns, all this begs the ques-
of the perception that those in the political executive enjoyed tion as to how effectively cbi officers can and will want to inves-
de facto powers of immunity and were never subject to proper tigate those in high office when they remain beholden to these
investigation. That the political executive and senior government very people in power. The government refused to hive off the
officials were able to escape investigation had to do with the cbi's anti-corruption wing and merge it with the Lokpal office on
executive's control over financial and administrative powers of the ground that this would cripple the operational set-up of the
the Central Bureau of Investigation (cbi) and the legal proviso agency. What the government has decided to do instead is to
(called the "single directive") - Section 6A of the Delhi Special establish a Lokpal that will have little independence in ensuring
Police Establishment (dspe) Act - which required the cbi to get a thorough investigation.
the prior approval of the government before proceeding on pre- International experience with anti-corruption organisations
liminary enquiries of the behaviour of any officer above the rank suggests that a piecemeal approach towards the Lokpal and the
of joint secretary. premier investigative agency in the country is more likely to fail
The Lokpal was to correct this situation. Indeed the earlier in the stated objective of punishing corruption. Ombudsmen in
Lokpal Bill гон, which the government was forced to withdraw other countries, where they are well established - such as in the
because of its weaknesses in other areas, had provisions for a Scandinavian countries and Austria - have their own investiga-
separate investigating agency altogether. Even if this would have tive offices independent of other agencies. But of course these
led to the creation of yet another investigating agency duplicat- ombudsmen are more public administration monitors than anti-
ing some of the work of the cbi, what is now being legislated corruption agencies. The more successful examples of anti-
upon is poorly drafted with respect to investigation powers. The corruption bodies such as the Independent Commission against
Lokpal Bill was expected to be a vehicle for ensuring truer auto- Corruption in Hong Kong have very strong powers of investiga-
nomy of the operational functions of premier investigating tion, prosecution and information sharing. These are ensured
agencies like the cbi. But this is far from being so. through the autonomy the commission enjoys in its financial and
The current bill has merely provided for the Lokpal to take administrative affairs; accountability is ensured by oversight
over superintendence of select investigations - of Group а, в bodies that are part of the set-up of the commission itself. Even in
officers and high government officials, and members of Parlia- those countries such as the United States which lack a specific
ment - to be carried out by the cbi. The logic advanced by institution like the Lokpal, multi-agency anti-corruption bodies
the government is that the bill retains the accountability of the link up with federal investigative and policing agencies that have
cbi to the executive (and therefore Parliament) while providing autonomy from public officials.
investigative powers to the Lokpal. However, it can be argued As it stands, the Lokpal Bill passed by the Lok Sabha has dealt
that the government-sponsored bill has merely added one more with the long-standing demand for an effective anti-corruption
authority to the various others that cbi is already accountable to body with half-measures which will leave the institution
(the Central Vigilance Commission (cvc), the department of without any teeth.
g
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Q3S3 Economic & Political WEEKLY
Dealing with a Deadly Killer
India detects cases of total drug-resistant tuberculosis , but how should she deal with the problem?
the drugs with the local grocer, post office and even paan wallahs
(tdr-tb) in just one hospital in Mumbai at the end of last have helped to a considerable extent. Even so, migrant workers,
The year (tdr-tb) detection
year suggestssuggests
a seriousin jbreakdown
ust of a 12inserious one casesinter-hospital of breakdown total in drug-resistant Mumbai in public at the health tuberculosis end of inter- last
public health truck drivers and daily wage labourers who cannot afford to lose a
ventions in preventing the spread of this highly contagious dis- single day's work still find it difficult to keep to a regular medication
ease. According to the World Health Organisation (who), there regimen. But it is not the patient alone who is responsible for non-
were three million cases of tuberculosis (тв) in India in 2010 with compliance. Patients who are poor, undernourished, or homeless
more new cases every year than in any other country. Nearly 70% cannot withstand these strong drugs and the callous attitude of
of the patients are between 15 and 54 years and 3,30,000 die every public health staff often contributes to their not adhering to the
year due to тв. When translated into human costs these frighten- regimen. Treatment of тв needs to go beyond medication and deal
ing figures suggest a huge productivity and social loss. with these root causes. Hence, it is not surprising that the relapse
The detection of 12 drug-resistant cases in the P D Hinduja rate is 35% in India as against the global 15%. There are two addi-
Hospital in Mumbai means that these patients have shown resist- tional factors that constitute major obstacles in the batde against
ance to all the known anti-тв combination drugs. Given that the тв. First, there is the pressure exerted by the pharmaceutical lobby,
infrastructure to detect drug sensitivity is woefully inadequate in especially through private practitioners, that leads to indiscrimi-
the country and that one тв patient can infect 14 persons in a nate prescription of "miracle" antibiotics. This kind of irregular
year, this is disastrous news for public health. consumption of antibiotics leads to drug resistance on a large scale.
India is the second country after Iran to report this mutation of Second, following the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase-i (ndm-i)
the disease. While multidrug-resistant or mdr-tb is impervious controversy, there were insistent and urgent calls for a national
to the "first-line" drugs that are combined to fight the infection, policy on antibiotics. A 13-member task force was constituted, and
xDRfTB or the extensively drug-resistant version does not respond its report specified mandatory conditions and regulations to be
to either these drugs or the "second-line" ones. The reasons behind followed by doctors and chemists while prescribing and selling
this development are well known. It happens because patients antibiotics. However, the government has not yet acted on this
fail to go through the entire six-month course of medication at a draft report as it holds that implementing it is going to be difficult.
stretch. Apart from this, the doctors at the Hinduja hospital who The new thinking in government circles is to focus on training
wrote about their study in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases chemists in remote areas to prescribe antibiotics. Essentially, the
point out that the public sector only provides second-line drugs to government is faced with the twin challenges of ensuring a
1% of the patients who suffer from drug-resistant тв. It is private rational use of antibiotics that will prevent the development of
practitioners who are responsible for mismanaging the treatment resistant microorganisms and also guaranteeing proper access to
that largely leads to the drug resistance. Out of the 106 private doctors and medicines in the rural areas. Yet, merely training
doctors in one part of Mumbai whose prescriptions were exam- chemists to prescribe antibiotics cannot be a substitute for
ined by these doctors in another study, only five had prescribed strengthening and improving public health services, infrastruc-
the borrect medicines to drug-resistant patients. The treatment ture and awareness drives. In the final analysis, public health
course can stretch up to two years for these patients. crisis such as drug-resistant тв or other persistent diseases can
In fact, the story of incomplete and irregular treatment is an oft only be handled if a working public health system is in place. The
repeated one despite the government's focus on the directly observed Hinduja hospital study and its implications need to be taken seri-
treatment scheme (dots) under the Revised National Tuberculosis ously. India simply cannot afford to let lakhs of its citizens face
Control Programme (rntcp). Under this scheme (12,000 тв centres agonising deaths in the prime of life. Especially, deaths that can
and nearly 4,00,000 workers), innovative measures such as stocking be so easily prevented.
I FROM 50 YEARS AGO time limits. Users of taxis can apply for per-
Any driver wishing to make a trip within
штшкжтщ
mits to take taxis between specified points at
the Bombay limits shall be required to submit
specified times...
an application to a Traffic Planning Bureau.
Я Journal of Current (Economic anb political affaire Lady Motorist
The application will specify the intended
New York, January 5, 1962
VOL XIV, NO 3, JANUARY 20, I962 origin and destination, and the preferred
time of departure. Applications should (The
bemotorist can still retain his freedom to
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR drive
submitted at least 30 days in advance of the provided he parts with his freedom to
park his car anywhere he likes. This means
day of the trip to allow time for processing.
Traffic Congestion and The Traffic Bureau will. . .return to each
not only parking meters and parking lots,
Laissez-Faire applicant a card specifying the date, the municipal
time, or commercial - there can never be
Traffic congestion in Bombay is bad andand enough of them - but changes in building
the route that the driver will be permitted.
it is
going to get worse. The problem arises because These cards can be attached to the outside of
regulations to compel builders of posh flats,
the
traffic is run on a laissez-faire basis. It will not beautomobile where police along the most way of the tenants of which are car-owners,
can inspect
corrected until traffic planning is introduced. I to build garages or provide parking space
them to ascertain that the driver
is travelling within the authorised routewithin
would like to suggest a simple planning scheme. and the building compound - Ed)
Economic & Political weekly E3353 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 9
Repairing the Lokpal Bill
Lokayuktas Bill 2011, got it passed by
the Lok Sabha, but could not do so on the
last day of the winter session in the Rajya
Sabha. We now have the lull before the
SRIRAM PANCHU next storm.
Position of CBI
There are many problems
with the Lokpal Bill 2011, the finally going to get a tough anti- There is considerable opposition to the
Last finally corruption
corruptionAugust
fightinggoing
body fighting
- well sele-it seemed to get body that a tough - India well anti- sele- was current Bill and for good reason. First, the
most serious being the lack of
cted, with powers of investigation and 2011 Bill is a retrograde one while com-
independence to the prosecution, and jurisdiction over the top pared to the government's own earlier Bill
anti-corruption wing of the
rungs of ministers, legislators and bureau- as regards the control by the Lokpal over
crats. On the table were proposals to set
Central Bureau of Investigation. the Central Bureau of Investigation (cbi),
up special courts to conclude cases within the country's premier investigative body.
There have been problems as well
a short time frame, punishments were to The earlier one provided that the Lokpal
with the civil society approach
be stiff, and assets gained through corrup- would have its own investigative arm, and
tion were to be recovered. Anna Hazare
to the negotiations with the envisaged total control over such investi-
government. Civil society had galvanised large sections of people gation. Now the Lokpal is to have superin-
should
including the youth, and got the supporttendence of a sort, and the government
now put down the non-negotiable
of influential voices in the media. He and retains administrative control over the cbi
demand of a Lokpal with full
his team had earlier secured an unprece- including transfer, postings and promo-
control over investigation dented
and place at the drafting table withtions. This means that every officer of the
senior
prosecution, and for one law toministers. The government accep-cbi is looking to the government for career
ted many of the suggestions from theadvancement. Given that the major thrust
operate nationally. However,
Hazare team. of any anti-corruption bill is against those
it should accept differential Differences remained on some important
in power, we have a situation here where
methods of dealing with lower
aspects, mainly relating to the extentthe
of potential accused, or persons allied to
coverage by the Lokpal. The Hazare team
level corruption and citizen them by party or pelf, are in control of the
investigators. Few aspects strike at the
wanted all government officers to be brought
charters, giving the Lokpal a
under one Lokpal, who would also handle
root of the Lokpal concept as this one.
supervisory and advisory role in
all complaints of failure to implement theIn practical terms, investigation is the
these areas. citizens charters spelling out duties foundation
of of any case, and the independ-
officers to the public. The government and
ence of the investigation team makes all
many other social activists and commen-
the difference. There is no shortage of
tators, differed on this aspect fundamen-
critical comment by the Supreme Court
over the fact that the cbi is under the
tally on the ground that this would make
for a gargantuan Lokpal, leading in turn
umbrella of the executive. In fact, it is in
to a potential for abuse of power by a body
recognition of the need for independence
supervising both integrity and performance
that the government now proposes that
of the entire range of official machinery.the director of the cbi should be chosen by
the prime minister, the leader of the
Anna's team used the considerable public
support it enjoyed to override these objec-
opposition and the chief justice of the Su-
tions to its vision of a mammoth Lokpal,preme Court. However, the director can-
and used the fear over his continued fast-
not ensure the independence and institu-
ing to force Parliament to come to terms
tional integrity of his officers, when his/
with their demands. A resolution express-
her career path is to be determined by the
ing the sense of the House was passed ministry.
to Even the provision that the Lokpal
defuse the situation, satisfying the needhas
of superintendence over the investiga-
the moment to end the fast, but leaving
tive body comes with a circumscribing
enough leeway for more twists and turns. rider that no direction can be given to in-
A standing committee of Parliament taskedvestigate or dispose of any case in any
manner. Now to leave the cbi unfettered
with harmonising the different drafts later
Sriram Panchu (sriram.panchu@gmail.com) is
failed to reach consensus. Finally, theto reach its conclusion is appropriate, but
a senior advocate at the Madras High Court.
government tabled its official Lokpal and
fettering the Lokpal from, for instance,
^ JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 1ШШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
eeeee^ COMMENTARY
Seventh Schedule to the Constitution is

asking the cbi why it has not examined selection committee heavily in its favour -
A Raja in the 2G scam seems odd. threefold - List i is for the centre (the Unionthe prime minister, the Lok Sabha speaker
List),
In the 2G case, it was the repeated List h for the states, and List hi is the (who is drawn from the ruling party ranks),
ques-
tioning by the Supreme Court that made List where both may legislate,and the nominee of the president, who acts
Concurrent
with
the cbi cast the net for the big fish. theisrider that parliamentary enact-on the advice of the council of ministers.
This
ments
not an isolated instance of the Court hav-will override state laws where there The chief justice and the leader of the op-
is a their
ing to prod the investigators to do conflict. The objectors claim that theposition will be in a minority. This means
work; it did so in the hawala caseLokayukta
and is can only be created by thethat the powers that will be get to choose
telecom of each state since only it hasthe policeman who is to police them. It is
doing so now asking why some legislature
The over ministers and officers atstill in recent memory that the govern-
jurisdiction
operators are not being investigated.
Supreme Court has drawn a clear the state level.
distinc- ment came out unflatteringly before the
tion between investigation on the one this claim can be trumped bySupreme Court in the lack of propriety in
However,
Article
hand and the judicial process on the other 253 which says that where Parlia-choosing P J Thomas as chief vigilance
ment makes a law for the whole or any part commissioner. On the other end of the
and held that the Court's supervisory
of sheet
jurisdiction continues till the charge India to implement an internationalspectrum is perhaps the executive's fear of
treaty or a decision made at any interna-what may happen if the Lokpal members
is filed. Surely a Lokpal specifically designed
and chosen to fight corruptiontional
should conference, such law will hold goodchoose to emulate the current comptroller
have no less power. What adds even it transgresses the federal division ofand auditor-general who seems quite happy
to the
Lokpal power. The Lokpal-Lokayuktato open up Pandora boxes.
problem is a provision that thelegislative
Act ishas
must steer clear of any inquiry which expressly made in pursuance of the
Reservation
United Nations Convention on Corruption,
commenced before any other authority.
which obliges ratifying states to put in placeOne concern is the representation given in
Taken in conjunction with the stipulation
Lokpalto criminalise bribery and createthe Lokpal to scheduled castes and tribes,
that the cbi is answerable to themeasures
only for cases specifically referred effective
by it, mechanisms for enforcement.India Other Backward Classes, minorities and
this creates a situation where the cbi ratified the convention on 9 May 2011.women. They are to constitute not less
can start investigation cases of corruptionThus, a comprehensive law for establish-than 50% of the members of the Lokpal,
and claim freedom from the Lokpal ining institutions for fighting corruption atwhich consists of one chairperson and
those matters. the centre and states would be within the eight members. Reservation in education
All in all, the portions of the Bill relat-legislative competence of Parliament. Aand employment is a feature which has
ing to investigation are counterproductivesimilar enactment is the Protection ofbeen upheld to bring about advancement
to the object and purpose of the legisla-Human Rights Act, 1993, passed in con- in the social and economic condition of
tion. They require to be recast - either theformity with obligations undertaken by the target group. However, it is one thing
cbi's anti-corruption unit should bethe country under the International Cove- to provide for special benefit by reserva-
brought fully, administratively and func-nant on Civil and Political Rights and the tion to a section of people to advance their
tionally, under the Lokpal, or this bodyInternational Covenant on Social and Cul- educational or employment prospects; it is
should have its own cadre of investigatorstural Rights of 1966. That Act covers the quite another to mandate that a high-level
and the cbi should keep away fromcountry as a whole by setting up central body for tackling corruption should have
corruption cases. and state human rights commissions; it half its membership (other than the chair-
person) apportioned on such basis. Two
was passed as one statute by Parliament.
Lòkayuktas Even otherwise it is arguable that Entry 1 aspects emerge here - first, what is the
A great deal of controversy has broken outin the Concurrent List is criminal law, and
nexus between the reservation and the
over the inclusion of Lokayuktas for thethat the Lokpal is meant to enforce the Pre- purpose of the Act? Is it anyone's case that
states along with the Lokpal in the Billvention of Corruption Act, 1988 which is a corruption is connected to caste or gender
placed before Parliament; this is said toparliamentary statute criminalising cor- or religion? If not, the quota is one which
violate the federal principle of division ofruption throughout the country and pro- does not subserve the enactment, and
viding punishments irrespective of whether would be unconstitutional.
legislative powers between the centre and
the states as provided in the Constitution.the offence is committed in relation to cen- One perhaps unintended result could
Now before going into the legal aspect, ittral and state government. Further, where be that any person belonging to one of the
needs to be seen if the objectors, mainlya legislative subject is not covered in any of categories, when charged with corruption,
regional parties, are acting from lofty con-the Lists, that falls to the union under the would pitch a special appeal to the members
stitutional principles or simply resistingresiduary Entry 97 in List 1. Thus there is of that category seeking their sympathy or
tough anti-corruption bodies in their re-sufficient legislative bandwidth enabling support. Instances are not found wanting
spective states. One should take note of the union legislature to enact a nationwide of claims that an accused is targeted since
their presence on the list of scams tocoverage anti-corruption Act. he belongs to a particular community, and
answer this question. Coming to the law, A third issue concerns the selection of intervention sought of an authority set up
the division of legislative power in thethe Lokpal. The government Bill slews the to protect that community; indeed one
Economic & Political weekly ССШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 11
such appeal emanated recently from a judge denial of tax exemptions, inquiry and re- come under this catch-all definition. The
of a high court. medial action under statutes governing Lokpal will then not be able to focus on
The second aspect is that this could well societies and trusts and not by equating political and bureaucratic corruption. Is
mark the start of representation on high them with official organs of the State. It this the reason why ngos are brought in?
executive, quasi-judicial and judicial bod- may be noted that even in the earlier gov- Or is it that they have been in the fore-
ies by giving weightage to those possess- ernment drafts there was no inclusion of front of galvanising support for the agita-
ing these tags. So will we then have 50% ngos. Although the Prevention of Corrup- tion against the government, and there-
of the cbi, Reserve Bank of India, Union tion Act, 1988 does bring within its ambit fore are made to swallow the medicine
Public Service Commission, Election Com- ngos who receive government funds, that they prescribe?
mission and the Supreme Court mandato- does not mean that these should be
rily filled in this fashion? Options for Movement
brought within the scope of a Lokpal
The inclusion of non-governmental So what should the anti-corruption group
specifically designed to combat high-level
organisations (ngos) is another debatable official corruption. do now? For one, they need to close ranks.
issue. The Bill says that the officer of an The Lokpal is not meant to have It does no good for the Hazare batch to
the
NGO which receives money from the gov- same catchment area as the Prevention claim
of propriety over the movement and
ernment or the public or a foreign source Corruption Act. As an example, judgesexclude
are well-known campaigners like
is deemed to be a public servant and hence Aruna Roy and her colleagues on the
covered under that Act and so is the prime
under the purview of the Lokpal. ngos are minister without any exceptions; the National
offi- Campaign for the Right to Infor-
by definition not part of the governance cial Lokpal Bill leaves out judges and mation.
lim- Second, the Anna group should
structure; they do not have the power of realise that they overpitched the Lokpal.
its the inquiry against the prime minister.
decision-making. It is to influence deci- The enormous scope they want for this
Moreover, the 2011 Bill goes further than
sions that corruption takes place. Dishon- receipt of funds from governmentcreature
and - control over all government
esty in running the affairs of an ngo seeks to also include ngos who receive servants, redressai of public grievances and
should certainly invite penal action, but implementation of citizen charters make
money only from the public. There a huge
that should be by way of deregistration, even their well-wishers balk. Their focus
number of ngos and virtually all would
12 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 ШШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
should be on instilling integrity in the top in mind. You do not publicly denigrate fully empowered Lokpal with full control
rung of governance. those with whom you sit at the table to iron over investigation and prosecution, and
Honesty, like corruption, follows the law out differences; calling some one a cheat for one Act to operate nationally. It should
of gravity - it percolates downwards; clean- and a liar makes him automatically ill-dis- resist reservation in the Lokpal, but relent
sing the top will, by itself, produce a better posed to you, however meritorious your if that is the only way to secure passage of
administration at lower levels. First, giving demand. And then there is the adage that the Act, and leave it to the courts to rule
the Lokpal supervision over the Central the best is the enemy of the good - an in- the legality of this reservation. However,
Vigilance Commission which investigates sistence on all or nothing usually results in it should accept differential methods of
complaints against lower level bureaucracy getting the latter. One may have to give up dealing with lower level corruption and
will suffice. Second citizen charters deal some to get a lot; that holds good in virtu- citizen charters, giving the Lokpal a
with aspects of delivery of services and ally all attempts to resolve differences; supervisory and advisory role in these
should have a separate enforcement and wisdom dictates this course and choice. area. India needs to get moving on the
monitoring body. Third, some fundamen- Civil society should therefore put down road to fight corruption, even if the high-
tals of the art of negotiation need to be kept the non-negotiable demand of a tough and way is only of six lanes and not eight.
Looking beyond Durban:

however, I briefly summarise the Durban
outcomes, and clarify what I take to
be India's interests in the negotiation
Where To From Here? process. Both are necessary steps prior to
looking forward.
NAVROZ К
Multiple Outcomes,
DUBASH
Multiple Interpretations
The lesson
Much has already beenfor
written in the
climate negotiations accomplished Indian and overseas media about the Durban
is that it needs
The the climate unlikely
the unlikelyrecently
feat of negotiations
changing every-feat concluded of changing accomplished Durban every- outcome, the fraught process of reaching
approach that
that outcome, and India's role in the wan-
thing and nothing at the same time. Every-
to industrialise
thing has changed, in that a "Durban ing moments of the negotiations (Bidwai
Platform" set in motion a new round of
historical 2011; Raghunandan
respo 2011; Rajamani 2011a;
negotiations based on a parsimonious Sterk, Arens et al 2011; Werksman 2011;
problem with a
eight paragraph text, which leaves open Winkler 2011). The intent here is less to re-
own responsib
the scope to revisit several contentious produce that story and more to flag issues
carbon develop
issues from past negotiations. At the same that are relevant to India going forward.
This is
time, very both
little has changed, in that the The Durban Platform for Enhancedet
Action, which launches a process to be
and global climate regulatory framework for
strategical
the next eight years remains the one that negotiated between 2012 and no later than
India's own dom
existed prior to Durban. Only the most 2015, and intended to come into effect in
approach of
optimistic could hope that simply starting 2020 to develop ac
"a protocol, another legal
the firing gun on a new round of negotia- instrument or an agreed outcome with le-
"co-benefits" -
tions heralds a dramatic shift in the incen- gal force" (unfccc 2011), the last phrase
promote devel
tives for global climate action. Nonethe- inserted at India's insistence. As this con-
yielding climat
less, it is true that by establishing a new voluted wording suggests, at stake was the
that it does
process, the climate negotiations have extent to which the outcome of any taknew
entered relatively new, and uncharted process would
seriously andhave a legally binding na- h
territory. This is an important moment, ture. The phrase "agreed outcome with
responsibility
therefore, to pause and reflect on India's legal force" cracks open the door, however
by focusing on
approach so far, and, if necessary to make marginally (and lawyers are still debating
principles
course corrections. rath
the size of the crack) to an outcome that is
In this article, I explore
actual what such a not a legal instrument as contemplated
policies
course correction might focus on. In brief, under the overarching un Framework
weakens its ow
I argue that India needs to re-articulate Convention on Climate Change (Rajamani
and enrich its position on equity in 2011b; Werksman 2011).
climate negotiations, as a prelude to At least as important are two other,
Navroz KDubash
developing informed views on key aspects closely linked, ambiguities latent in( the n
theCentre for text. There is little clarityPolic
on the content
of the negotiations going forward. First,
Economic & Political weekly
of what will be legally binding and who provides a basis to preserve the idea of However, the victory may be more sym-
(which countries) will take on such obliga- differentiation. However, importantly, the bolic than real, for at least three reasons.
tions. This lack of clarity has allowed document also specifically notes that theFirst, the scope of coverage is limited and
various sides in the debate to declare vic-
new outcome will be "applicable to all" and shrinking. Japan and Russia have sig-
tory simultaneously (Ghosh and Dasguptadoes not include even a rote invocation of nalled their intent not to participate in a
2011). Commentators from industrialised the principle of "common but differentiated second commitment period (Goldenberg
countries tend to interpret the text as call- responsibilities", which has been a staple 2010; Morales and Biggs 2010), and Canada
ing for all countries to take on emission of documents produced under this process formally withdrew from the Protocol
reductions - a construction of symmetricso far (Rajamani 2011a). The Durban Plat- within days of Durban (afp 2011), leaving
responsibility - while developing coun- form appears tilted towards symmetry be- the European Union as the lonely bedrock
tries see the principle of differentiatedtween countries rather than differentia- of the Kyoto Protocol. Second, the content
responsibility as alive and well. tion between rich and poor nations. of commitments for the second commit-
Such different interpretations are enabled While the Durban outcome represents ment period are as yet unknown, and
by the actual text of the Durban Platform. the rather fuzzy, post-2020, future of much depends on whether actual num-
On what is to be done, the document does the global climate regime, the other twobers put forward by parties in the coming
not use the word "commitments" but instead documents produced at Durban represent year are adequate improvements over
calls on parties to "explore options for a the present. A resuscitated Kyoto Protocol, those agreed to for the first commitment
range of actions" that are intended to in-which received a lease on life as part ofperiod.1 Third, Durban failed to adequate-
crease the "ambition" of mitigation actions. the quid pro quo for the Durban Platform, ly address the problem of "hot air," the
This phrasing allows for emission reductionforms the first half of the current climate surplus "assigned amount units" (aaus)
commitments, but also certainly does notregime. The decision at Durban established allocated to economies in transition in the
preclude various other formulations includ-a second commitment period for the Pro-first commitment period, which, if carried
ing intensity targets. Based on the text, antocol (to run for either five or eight years), over to the second commitment period,
interpretation that all countries have with concrete commitments to be put would effectively undermine the environ-
agreed to commit to emission commit- forward by countries by 2012. In some mental worth of the Kyoto Protocol.
ments, let alone reductions, does not seem ways, this is a significant outcome, as it The second piece of the current regime
warranted. The question of who does what keeps in place the only legally binding is the outcome on Long-Term Cooperative
is more complex. That the Durban Platformelement of the climate framework requir- Action (lca), which is built around volun-
is explicitly rooted "under the Convention" ing hard commitments. tary pledges by countries, followed by
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 УШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
various systems for review. It also impor- that simultaneously promotes the dual ob-
and per capita co2 emissions were 32% of
tantly addresses adaptation. At Durban, the global average.2 When compared tojectives above takes rather more nuanced
steady progress was made on various industrialised countries, of course, theseargumentation and alliance building than
aspects of the lca process, including the ratios are much lower. As discussed below,promoting a single-point agenda. How
basis for "measurement, reporting and this claim need not be nor cannot be open-might India develop such nuanced posi-
verification" (mrv) (called "International ended and unqualified, but there is littletions in the future?
Consultation and Analysis" for developing doubt that, to address poverty concerns
countries and "International Assessmentand support development aspirations,Re-conceptualising Climate Equity
India's emissions should not be capped inOne important way forward is to re-
and Review" for developed countries), the
the short to medium term.
governance mechanism for the Green Cli- conceptualise India's stance on climate equi-
mate Fund, and the mechanism for deliv- Second, however, India also has a strongty. India has long insisted that a global re-
interest in an effective global climategime should be based on equitable access
ering finance for "Reducing Emissions
response. Whether in terms of vulner-to atmospheric space, based on a per capita
from Deforestation and Forest Degrada-
tion" (REDD+). ability of food systems, water availability,allocation (Agarwal and Narain 2011;
Taken collectively, the Durban out-
disease burden, sea level rise or weatherGovernment of India 2011). We correctly
comes have elicited a wide range of reac-
events, India has a great deal to lose fromargue that contribution to the global stock
tions. Environmentalists tend to view it as unchecked climate change. And, at low-of greenhouse gas emissions constitutes
far too little, and rather late, as "...a com- levels of development, the ability of ourhistorical responsibility for the problem
promise which saves the climate talks but population to respond is diminished. and, indeed, that past ignorance of cli-
endangers people" (Christian Aid 2011). Measured against these objectives, the mate science (among industrialised coun-
Veteran watchers of negotiations view the outcomes of Durban are disappointing.tries) is no defence against accepting re-
outcome as the best that could be expected, The failure of the Durban Platform to sponsibility for past actions. Since India
given the circumstances, although not explicitly recognise the continued salience
has contributed relatively little to the
nearly enough (Winkler 2011). Several of the principle of common but differenti-
stock of global emissions on a per capita
basis, this formulation would essentially
voices are concerned with the downgrad- ated responsibility implies that India will
ing of equity, with one describing the Dur- have to work harder to achieve the first
guarantee that our emissions would re-
ban outcomes as "phasing out climate objective. With regard to the second objec-main uncapped for the next few decades.3
change frameworks based on equity and tive, while some view the promise of harder However, over 20 years, this argument
launching talks for a new treaty whose legally-binding commitments as a positive has failed to win sufficient adherents.
contours are yet to be defined" (Khor signal, the form of commitments, theirWhile the core of the argument remains
2011). All agree that there is considerable cumulative consistency with the globalrelevant, it could be strengthened by ad-
uncertainty about the future. emission benchmarks set by climate sci-dressing conceptual flaws that also trans-
ence and their acceptance by countries alllate to strategic weaknesses.
India's Interests remains to be settled. Given the fraught First, a negotiating position based solely
nature of past global climate politics, it is on allocating atmospheric space to coun-
In oiîder to clearly evaluate India's stakes
unlikely that all these outstanding issuestries on a per capita basis implies that
comi ng out of the Durban negotiations,
it is necessary to be clear about will
what be positively or speedily resolved. knowledge of climate science and potential
Further,
India's interests are in this process. In the renewed Kyoto Protocol future impacts confers no responsibility on
my View, our interests fall under two unlikely to leverage much en- a country to assess its choice of deve-
seems
bro^d heads. hanced climate action. The effectiveness lopment path; all that matters is the space
Fijrst, India must ensure that, as a result of the lca process depends on countries
available to a country. But the ethical basis
of tlje climate negotiations, prospects for following through on their emissionsfor an argument that past polluters should
development and alleviation of high pov- pledges and on ramping them up, and on
pay, which is the logic of the atmospheric
erty levels of much of our population are the supporting mechanisms around adap-space argument, is strengthened by recog-
not restricted. This concern stems from tation, technology, finance and redd+. nising that knowledge of climate science
the fact that the poverty burden in India India's negotiating position has long and impacts provides an imperative for all
countries to explore lower carbon paths,
remains extremely high and, given cur-prioritised the first objective - staving off
and to adopt them if costs are comparable.
rent technology, poverty alleviation andcaps. In pursuing this objective, India has
development requires the ability to emitoften been called obstructive, and made Not
a to do so would be to argue that knowl-
carbon. While other countries may makescapegoat for collective failure to achieve edge of climate change and impacts is
similar claims, India's relative position inthe second objective (Narain 2011). Whileirrelevant to development planning. By
insisting only on allocation of atmospheric
the global context helps buttress the case. this is palpably unfair, particularly given
In 2000, Indian levels of gdp per capita were the track record of countries like the us space, we wrap our position in a morality of
42% of the global average, total primaryon climate change, it does point to a development, which then invites an angry
energy supply per person was 32%, elec-challenge of substance and perception. counter morality of vulnerability, which at
tricity consumption per capita was 22%Developing a climate negotiating position Durban was articulated by a cluster of
Economic & Political weekly B353 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 *5
small island and least developed countries. respond, or a duty (Rajamani 2011b). An robust, leads to domestic actions that
Even though India surely counts as one of approach that combines attention to actively explore low carbon options, and
the most vulnerable nations, the represen- industrialised countries' historical respon- to tangible carbon gains, then India is well
tative from Granada was widely reported sibility for the problem with an embrace placed to defend itself against further
as rebutting our minister's defence of a right of the responsibility to explore low carbon demands. Moreover, under the Cancun
to develop by stating "While they develop, development trajectories is both ethically Agreements, India is already committed
we die; and why should we accept this?" defensible and strategically wise. Ironically, to taking "nationally appropriate mitigation
(Black 2011). our own domestic national approach of actions" when "supported and enabled by
Second, carbon is only useful to the actively exploring "co-benefits" - policies technology, financing and capacity-build-
extent it helps enable development. While that promote development while also ing". A clear domestic regulatory frame-
there is a close correspondence between yielding climate gains - suggests that we work that provided an analytical basis for
development and carbon emissions given do take climate science seriously and separating when we would take co-benefits
current technology, as technology develops have embraced responsibility as duty. based actions without external support,
each unit of carbon will yield more deve- However, by focusing on articulating rig- and when we would require external
lopment. Focusing on atmospheric space id principles, rather than building on our support, would also help limit future
rather than development prospects exposes actual policies and actions, we weaken unfunded obligations.
us to the charge of supporting a right to our own position. The lesson from Durban, surely, is that
pollute into the future, independent of Is accepting a responsibility (understood hewing to a rigid position that focuses
changes in technological context. Instead, as duty) to explore low carbon development only on fending off any form of responsi-
it is far more defensible to focus on the ulti- pathways (as part of a larger package that bility for action risks exposing India to a
mate objective of development and poverty keeps focus on industrialised country cul- far worse position. By arguing for a strict
alleviation, rather than the proximate and pability) a slippery slope towards ever more form of differentiation under which not
contingent objective of emitting carbon. onerous commitments? The answer de- only India, but also its basic (Brazil, South
A re-formulated approach to climate pends, in part, on the domestic policy and
Africa, India and China) partners, are shiel-
equity should embrace an important ded, the end result was a negotiation man-
regulatory framework that India establish-
distinction between responsibility for an es to implement its chosen approach date
of that side-stepped the idea of differenti-
action or culpability and responsibility to pursuing co-benefits. If this framework ation
is entirely. In terms of development
rá JANUARY 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ESQ Economic & Political WEEKLY
== êeeeeee COMMENTARY
parameters
Fourth, what is our politicalIndia has
reading ofstrategically to achieve real outcomes, mo
and
with the least
how different countries will engage withdeveloping
not just rhetorical victories.
countries than
the Durban Platform? Will a legally bind- with coun
Brazil, and South
ing outcome work against itself by discour- Africa.
notes
I
will in
aging be
India's
ambitious target setting by coun- i interest
An o
articulate
tries? Will any a
gains be more
undone by high graded
emissi
1990
hurdles to ratification
entiation, one of a new instrument
that recog
Fourth
benefits based
in several countries, notably the us? These approach
2 Com
are all issues onto
which India needs to World
response the impera
3 Ther
mitigation given
develop informed analysis as a prelude to tions of different our
allocation formulas. For an cu
development,
formulating a position and strategy.but
overview and onealso one
influential approach that uses
past contributions to stock as the basis for deter-
pathway to
In the short run, it ismore
also important rigorou
mining how fast future emissions decline, see
actions at
over the next enhanced
year to be engaged with the Jayaraman, Kanitkar et allevels
(2011).
articulation of the Cancun agreements-

Preparing for
based climate regime that will be put in
REFERENCES
the Ro
Re-conceptualising
place for the next eight years. First, we equity
AFP (2011): "Canada Formally Withdraws from Kyot
ation must work with
are a our allies to seal off
necessary Protocol", Times of India, New Delhi,fir
13 December
Agarwal, A and S Narain (2011): "Global Warming
newed Indian climate
remaining loopholes in the Kyoto Protocol strat
an Unequal World: A Case of Environmental Colo
deal of and
detailed strategic
ramp up pressure on Annex i coun- nialism" in N К Dubash (ed.).
needs to be done to be effective in what tries to put in place strong second round
Bidwai, P (2011): "Durban: Road to Nowhere", Econom
& Political Weekly, Vol XLVI (No 53).
promise to be intense and fraught negotia- commitments. These are issues on which
Black, R (2011): "Climate Talks End with Late Dea
tions in the coming years. basic and least developed economies can BBC, London.
India must be involved from the begin- make common cause. Second, we need to Christian Aid (2011): "Need for Climate Deal More
Pressing than Ever after UN Summit".
ning in shaping the operationalisation of develop a focused strategy on how to use
Dubash N K, ed. (2011): Handbook of Climate Change
the Durban Platform. While there are no the mrv provisions of the lca outcome to and India: Development, Politics and Governance
(New Delhi: OUP).
easy answers or obvious strategic ways keep the pressure on industrialised coun-
Ghosh, P and С Dasgupta (2011): "Smoke 'n Mirrors",
forward, the issues on which we must tries for effective climate action, and to
Financial Express, New Delhi.
rapidly develop clarity are apparent. First, maintain pressure on them to meet their Goldenberg, S (2010): "Cancún Climate Change Con-
do we persist with our objection to a obligations to contribute to the climate fi- ference: Russia Will Not Renew Kyoto Protocol",
The Guardian.
legally binding instrument, and on whatnance mechanism, the Green Climate Government of India (2011): "Proposals by India for
credible basis? So far, our objections to a Fund. Third, we should proactively shape Inclusion of Additional Agenda Items in the Provi-
sional Agenda of the Seventeenth Session of the
legally binding outcome have revolved the operationalisation of the international
Conference of the Parties", UNFCCC, FCCC/
around the fear of being tied to onerousconsultation and analysis framework for CP/2011/INF. 2/Add. 1.
commitments, a defensive concern. But, to developing country pledges to be consist- Jayaraman, T, T Kanitkar et al (2011): "Equity and
Burden Sharing in Emission Scenarios: A Carbon
be taken seriously by a broad range of Par-ent with our co-benefits approach to
Budget Approach" in N К Dubash (ed.).
ties, we must also develop and articulate climate mitigation. Khor, M (2011): "New Climate Talks Launched at
our perspective on a legally binding in- Durban", Third World Network.
Since the post-Durban gruelling process
Morales, A and S Biggs (2010): "Japan Says 'No' to
strument with regard to environmental promises to be a long and gruelling proc- Extending Kyoto Emissions Treaty, Wants New
effectiveness. It may be more effective, ess of negotiations, it is also important Agreement", Bloomberg .
even now, to articulate the conditions that India develop the capacity to engage Narain, S (2011): "The End of Climate Apartheid?",
Business Standard, New Delhi.
under which we feel a legally bindingin a long-term and sustained engagement Raghunandan, D (2011): "Durban Platform: Kyoto
instrument safeguards both our develop- with the negotiating process. This in- Negotiations Redux", Economic & Political Weekly,
Vol XLVI, No 53.
ment and climate interests. Second, does a volves setting objectives, and then devel-
Rajamani, L (2011a): "Deconstructing Durban", Indian
legally binding instrument mean legally oping a legal and political strategy to Express, New Delhi.
binding quantitative commitments, or achieve those objectives. A long and com- - (2011b): "The Reach and Limits of the Principle of
Common but Differentiated Responsiblities and
could it mean legally binding proceduresplex negotiation round such as the one we
Respective Capabilities in the Climate Change
that buttress voluntary commitments?are about to embark on will require conti- Regime" in N К Dubash (ed.).
Which of these options would make mostnuity in personnel, long range strategic Sterk, W, С Arens et al (2011): "On the Road Again:
Progressive Countries Score a Realpolitik Victory
sense from an Indian perspective? Third, thinking, and a willingness to leave the in Durban While the Real Climate Continues to
what will be the form of commitments to comparative safety of the high road to Heat Up", Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Envi-
ronment, Energy, Wuppertal.
be taken by countries? It will be particu-think through and engage in the ambi-
UNFCCC (2011): "Establishment of an Ad Hoc Work-
larly important to put on the table an guities of the middle ground. At Durban, ing Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced
articulation of how differentiation in com- we negotiated for principle, and failed Action", Draft decision -/CP.17, Durban.
Werksman, J (2011): "Q & A: The Legal Aspects of the
mitments or actions can be operationalised to achieve a desirable outcome. After
Durban Platform Text" (Washington DC: WRI).
across countries that accounts for India's Durban, we must find a way of making Winkler, H (2011): "Bending the Curve Back to Multi-
relatively low levels of development. our principles more robust, and use them
lateral Agreement on Climate Change", Cape Town.
Economic & Political weekly Q3S9 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 *7
Bill on Sexual Harassment: the safeguards against sexual harassment
implicit therein. For framing the guide-
Against Women's Rights

lines the Supreme Court relied on Articles
11 and 242 of cedaw. It also referred to the
general recommendations adopted by
the Committee on the Elimination of
GEETHA К К Discrimination against Women, viz, Arti-
cless 22, 23 and 24.3
In the absence of legislation The guidelines defined sexual harass-
to protect women from sexual assment and right to work with ment, imposed mandatory duty on the
The dignity assment
dignityprotection are andrecognised
are universally universally right against to sexual work recognised with har- employer to make a complaint to initiate
harassment at the workplace, the
human rights under the various inter- criminal action against the offender, take
Supreme Court in 1997 laidnationaldown
conventions, such as the Con- certain preventive measures, set up a
vention onState
guidelines in the Vishaka vs the Elimination of All Forms of complaint mechanism, create awareness
Discrimination against Women (cedaw),
ofRajasthan in 1997. Thirteen among the workers about the guidelines,
1979, which has been ratified by India in and protect women against the act of third
years later, Parliament came up
1993. The convention gives positive affir- parties, etc. Many establishments have
with the "Protection of Women
mation to the principle of equality by tried to constitute grievance committees
against Sexual Harassmentrequiringat
the ratifying countries to take all to handle cases of sexual harassment fol-
appropriate measures, including, enact-
Workplace Bill, 2010". However, lowing the ruling. The National Commis-
ment of legislation for guaranteeing
the Bill sees sexual harassment at
sion for Women (ncw) had formulated a
women the exercise and enjoyment of code of conduct in workplace to give effect
the workplace not as a criminal
human rights and fundamental freedoms to the guidelines.4
offence but as a mere civil at par with men. In a later judgment in the Apparel Ex-
Sexual harassment is a violation of port Promotion Council vs А К Chopra5
wrong, the remedy for which
women's right to equality, life and liberty.
case the apex court reiterated the guide-
is compensation. The Bill, now
It creates an insecure and hostile work lines laid down in Vishaka and held that
with a parliamentary committee,
environment, which discourages women'ssexual harassment is a form of sex dis-
proposes conciliation immediately
participation in work, thereby, adversely
crimination projected through unwel-
affecting their social and economic em-
after filing of a complaint before come sexual advances, request for sexual
an internal committee and powerment and the goal of inclusive

favours or such other verbal or physical
growth. Sexual harassment permeates conduct
all and rejection/submission of
does not provide for a proper
strata, ranging from the unorganised which affects her employment or work
enforcement machinery forsector to the corporate. performance or has the effect of creating
realising the rights laid down in an intimidating and hostile environment
Judicial Lawmaking for working women. Such incident violates
the proposed legislation.
In India the development of law on sexual
their fundamental right to gender equality
harassment is of recent origin. The judg-
and right to life and liberty. It is incompati-
ment in Vishaka vs State ofRajasthan1 was
ble with the honour and dignity of women
the first step where the Supreme Courtand there can be no compromise with
such violations.
held that sexual harassment at workplace
is a violation of human rights. Though
Vishaka was a case of gangrape which Legislative Process
It is a constitutional mandate to draft laws
comes under a specific provision of the
Indian Penal Code (ipc), the Court had
in consonance with the treaties and con-
ventions6 and courts have reiterated this
foreseen the need of a legislation for pro-
tecting women from sexual harassment obligation
at of the government to imple-
workplace and availed the opportunity ment
to treaties and conventions in various
cases.7 Further, the government had
develop law on the subject by way of judi-
cial legislation. It framed the guidelines
made an official commitment inter alia, to
formulate and operationalise a national
taking into account the significance of the
international conventions and norms for policy on women and to set up a commis-
the purpose of interpretation of the guar-
sion for women's rights which will act as
antee of gender equality and the rightato
public defender of women's human
Geetha К К ( kaykaygeetha@gmail.com, ) is with
work with human dignity in Articles 14, rights at the Fourth World Conference on
the Amity Law School, Delhi.
15, 19(1) (g) and 21 of the Constitution and
Women in Beijing.
l8
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Q351 Economic & Political WEEKLY
The legislative effort to enact a law on on Human Resources Development forHowever, it does make it mandatory for
sexual harassment started way back in examination and report.11 the employer to take criminal action
2000 with the Sexual Harassment of against a person who is not an employee
The Bill is a welcome step for protection
Women at the Workplace (Prevention) of women at the workplace. It contains without waiting for the inquiry.14 On the
Bill, 2000. It imposed a series of obliga-
various beneficial provisions for the pro-
other hand, a respondent who is an em-
tions on the employer to initiate criminal ployee is liable only to pay compensation
tection of women and has provided a wide
action where the act of sexual harassment definition for "workplace" unlike the pre-
to the victim if misconduct is proved, and
amounted to a specific offence under the vious bills. The Bill is applicable to the un-
which would be deducted from his salary.
ipc or under any other law, initiate disci- There is no specific reason for excluding
organised sector which ensures the consti-
plinary action where there is misconduct, tutional mandate of social justice to the
all employees from criminal liability.
create complaint mechanism, etc. It pro- irrespective of their social and economicOne of the major guidelines issued by
vided for punishment which may extend status. The incorporation of a provision the
to Supreme Court in the Vishaka case
to five years with a fine of Rs 20,000 or prohibit the publication or making known
was the mandatory duty of the employer
to refer the complaint to the appropriate
both. A year later, the Prevention of Sexual the contents of the complaint and inquiry
authority if the conduct amounts to an
Abuse of Women at Workplace Bill, 2001, 8 proceedings under the Right to Informa-
was introduced. It defined sexual abuse tion Act, 2005, is an important feature
offence under the ipc or under any other
that protects the victim from any sort
and also provided minimum punishment law.15 By making sexual harassment a civil
of not less than six months besides disci- of harassment. wrong the Bill curtails the right of a victim
plinary action. Later, the Prevention of to get criminal remedy.
Sexual Abuse and Harassment of Women (i) Sexual Harassment as a Civil WrongThe previous bills especially clause 716
and Girls at Workplace Bill, 2002, 9 was of the Sexual Harassment at their Work-
and Not as an Offence: Even though the
introduced. This one defined sexual har- Bill contains commendable provisions, itplace
is (Prevention) Bill, 2003, and clause
assment at the workplace. The definitionnot comprehensive and suffers from vari-
2117 of the Protection of Women against
of sexual abuse was the same as that in ous lacunae. It does not contain effective Sexual Harassment at Workplace Bill,
provisions to achieve the desired results,2007, contained provisions in tune with
the previous Bill. It prescribed severe pun-
ishment for sexual abuse which extended can be easily misused and will be a failurethe Vishaka guidelines.
to life imprisonment and a fine of up to if implemented in its present form.
Rs 5 lakh and for sexual harassment, pun- The major flaw of the Bill is that it con-(ii) Inquiry by the Internal Complaint
ishment up to three years imprisonment templates "sexual harassment" as a civilCommittee: The inquiry contemplated by
and a fine of Rs 2 lakh. The Bill providedwrong rather than as a criminal offence,the internal complaint committee is purely
for setting up of special courts for trial.as was envisaged in the previous bills (tillone under the service rules of the estab-
In 2003, the Sexual Harassment at the 2007) and in the Vishaka guidelines. Thislishment. The departmental inquiry en-
Workplace (Prevention) Bill was intro- is evident from the remedy available tovisaged under various service rules is con-
duced. This Bill extended its applicationthe victim which is disciplinary proceed-fined to finding whether the alleged mis-
to self-employed women and female stu-ing for misconduct and award of compen- conduct is proved or not. The procedure
dents in educational institutions. It pro- sation.12 In cases of sexual harassment,followed in such an inquiry is confined
vided for punishment which may extend the victim can file a complaint before the only to fact-finding and is not extended to
to five years with a fine of Rs 20,000internal complaint committee. It is for theprove criminal liability. The aggrieved
or both. respondent to prove that he has not com-party can approach the high court (не)
However, none of the above bills were mitted the offence. If proved guilty, disci-against the departmental inquiry. The
passed. Therefore, the ncw drafted the plinary action can be initiated for miscon-seppe of judicial review in such cases is
Protection of Women against Sexual Har- duct. Surprisingly, there is no provision inlimited and the не cannot interfere unless
assment at Workplace Bill, 2007. Unlike the Bill for taking criminal action by thesuch findings are based on no evidence or
the previous bills, this one defined the were wholly perverse and/or legally un-
internal complaint committee suo motu if
term "sexual harassment" comprehensively. it finds the respondent guilty or for refer-tenable. The не cannot function as an ap-
But it omitted all penal provisions which ring the complaint to the appropriate au-pellate authority and substitute its own
could be available to the aggrieved person thority for taking criminal action. Theconclusion as to the guilt of the delin-
against the respondent. only situation wherein the matter can bequent. Judicial review is not concerned
referred to the appropriate authority forwith the correctness of the decision but is
2010 Bill criminal action is upon the request of theconfined with the examination of the
Subsequently, in 2010, the Ministry of victim.13
Law This is problematic. The victimdecision-making process like whether the
abd Justice submitted the draft Protection
may not be aware of the fact that she has established principles of law and rules of
of Women against Sexual Harassment theatright to refer the matter under the rel-natural justice and fairness have been fol-
evant penal laws. The Bill does not cast alowed or not.18 The provision for conduct-
Workplace Bill, 2010.10 It is currently
pending before the Lok Sabha and has on the employer to inform the victiming inquiry by the internal complaint
duty
been referred to the select committee about her rights. committee against misconduct does not
Economic & Political weekly БЕШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 *9
suffice to provide justice to the victim and aggrieved woman includes every womanthe victim can take a proper decision on the
to meet the purpose of the Bill. If the find- whether working or not, the exclusion of
subject. The Bill is silent about the enforce-
ings of the inquiry committee are against domestic workers from the purview of theability of the settlement. The aggrieved
the victim, the appellate authority can de- Bill is unjustifiable. The inclusion of do-person has no remedy in such situations.
cide on the procedure fairness of the com- mestic workers as employees in this special
mittee and cannot enter into the merits of legislation is all the more necessary as(vi) Discrepancy in the Constitution of
the case and provide a redressai. the Complaint Committees: In the ap-
the Domestic Workers Registration, Social
The inquiry as per the service rules of Security and Welfare Act, 2008, does notpointment of members to the internal
each establishment to be followed by the provide punishment for sexual harassmentcomplaint committee it is not mandatory
complaint committee will take place only committed against them. that minimum two members of the com-
in organised sectors. The Bill is silent on mittee should have legal experience.20 But
the rule to be followed by the local com- (v) Conciliation - Scope for Misuse: Thein the case of a member in the local com-
plaint committee in the unorganised sec- Bill proposes conciliation immediatelyplaint committee it is mandatory that one
tor, as they lack any specific service rules. after filing of a complaint before an inter-of the nominees should preferably have a
background in law or legal knowledge.21
nal committee. Thus, before initiating an
(iii) The Need for Penal Provision: This is inquiry, at the request of the aggrievedThere is no difference in the function of
a major flaw of the Bill. The existing provi- both the committees. The function of the
party the committee can take steps to set-
sions like Sections 376, 354 and 509 ipc are tle the matter between the victim and the committee is the same as that of a judicial
not adequate to cover all offences of sexual respondent.19 Introducing conciliation atinquiry to find out whether the respon-
harassment. In the absence of penal provi- dent has committed sexual harassment at
the stage of filing of the complaint itself
sions in the Bill the victim has no other the workplace or not. Hence, it is neces-
will give an added advantage to the res-
pondent to influence the victim to settlesary for the members to have legal knowl-
effective remedy against sexual harassment.
the matter by force, coercion or undue in-edge. Moreover the appointment of only
It is pertinent to note that penal provisions
fluence. A provision for settlement optionwomen in the committee is also question-
were present in the previous bills, as dis-
cussed above. However, it was excludedin sexual offence cases can lead to undue able. Instead of appointing only women,
from the 2007 Bill onwards. Likewise, thepressure being exerted on the victim to members with integrity, who will follow a
present Bill also omitted penal provisionagree to a settlement. The incorporation judicious approach and commitment to
without any specific reason, which is aof conciliation at the initial stage of the the cause of women should be appointed.
hard blow to the rights of the victims.proceedings is contrary to the Vishaka Stipulation regarding the number of wom-
guidelines which do not provide for mon- en members in the committee is unneces-
There is no scope for misuse of the penal
provision, if introduced, since clause 14 ofetary compensation to settle such serious sary and makes a prejudicial assumption
the Bill provides punishment for false or offence. Conciliation can be resorted to at that only women are capable of deciding
the later stages of the proceedings so that issues relating to sexual harassment.
malicious complaint and false evidence as
per the service rules of the establishment.
(iv) Exclusion of Domestic Workers from

the Bill: The exclusion of domestic work-
ers from the definition of employee is an-
other major flaw of the Bill. The ncw rec-
ommended inclusion of domestic workers
in the proposed Bill. The reason cited for
excluding them is that it is difficult to en-
force the provisions of the Bill within the
privacy of homes and it is more practical
for them to take recourse to the provisions
under criminal law. This reasoning fails to
take into account that it may be difficult for
a domestic worker who is subjected to sex-
ual harassment to take recourse to criminal
law. When a domestic worker is subjected
to the same degree of sexual harassment as
defined in the Bill, her exclusion from the
purview of the proposed Bill is not justifia-
ble and is violative of Article 14. When the
provisions of the Bill are applicable to the
unorganised sectors and the definition of
2° January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 E33S53 Economic & Political weekly
(vii) Trivialising the Offence: The Bill the limitation period prescribed in сгрс ¡ sexual harassment at workplace, which is
excludes the court from taking cognisance etc, may defeat her case. To address this, a ; a universally recognised human right.
of any offence punishable under the pro- specific provision directing the complaint
posed Bill or any rules made thereunder committee to refer the case to the appro- notes
priate authority, immediately after receiv- 1 (199

except on a complaint made by the ag-
2 CED
grieved woman or any person authorised ing the same, shall be incorporated. take
by the internal committee or local com- crimi
Conclusions ment
mittee in this regard.22 The courts are men
empowered to take cognisance of offences The Bill fails to provide equal justice to (a) Th
human beings;
only if the aggrieved party opts to ap- women. Its main drawback is that it
proach the court. In the absence of a negates the guidelines issued by the (f) The right to protection of health and to safety
in working conditions, including the safeguard-
specific provision for referring all cases of Supreme Court in the Vishaka case and has
ing of the function of reproduction.
sexual harassment at workplace to the treated sexual harassment as a civil wrong Article 24 reads: "States Parties undertake to
rather than a criminal offence. Penal pro- adopt all necessary measures at the national level
appropriate authority, immediately after aimed at achieving the full realisation of the
reporting to the complaint committee, vision should also be in the Bill. In the rights recognised in the present Convention."
this option will be sparingly exercised by alternative, a provision can be made mak-3 Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination
against Women, General Recommendations, No
the victim due to various reasons prevail- ing it mandatory for the inquiry commit- 22 reads: "Violence and equality in employment:
tee to forward the complaint, at the time Equality in employment can be seriously im-
ing in the Indian society. paired when women are subjected to gender spe-
Clause 26(3) of the Bill treats all offences of filing it to the appropriate authority for cific violence, such as sexual harassment in the
workplace.
coming under it as non-cognisable23 and taking criminal action simultaneously General Recommendations, No 23 reads: Sexual
has thereby, diluted the gravity of the with the inquiry. To conduct trial of of- harassment includes such unwelcome sexually
determined behaviour as physical contacts and
offence. In a non-cognisable offence, the fenses of sexual harassment at workplace,
advance, sexually coloured remarks, showing
police officer has no power to investigate special courts should be constituted. pornography and sexual demands, whether by
words or actions. Such conduct can be humiliat-
the act without the order of the magis- Another shortcoming is the exclusion of
ing and may constitute a health and safety prob-
trate. In the case of non-cognisable domestic workers from the purview of the lem; it is discriminatory when the woman has
reasonable grounds to believe that the objection
offences, lodging of the first information Bill. Domestic workers are the most vul-
would disadvantage her in connection with her
report (fir) without the permission of nerable section among unorganised work- employment, including recruiting or promotion,
or when it creates a hostile working environment.
the court is not possible. Moreover, non- ers. Their inclusion in the Bill is the least Effective complaints procedures and remedies,
cognisable offences are mostly bailable protection that the government can offer including compensation, should be provided.
General Recommendations, No 24 reads: States
offences.24 Therefore, when an offence without discriminating them from the un- should include in their reports information about
under the Bill is committed, an employee organised sector. The purpose of the Bill is sexual harassment, and on measures to protect
women from sexual harassment and other forms
cannot lodge a complaint with the police defeated by incorporating conciliation at of violence of coercion in the workplace."
against the offender directly. The victim the initial stage of the proceedings. Such a 4 Available at Ncw.nic.in/frmLNewLaws.aspx as
viewed on 6 February 2011.
has to first approach the magistrate's court provision in cases of sexual offences can 5 (1999) 7 SCC 759-
by filing a private complaint under Section lead to undue pressure being exerted on6 Constitution of India, Art 253 reads: Legislation
the victim. for giving effect to international agreements -
200 of the Code of Criminal Procedure Notwithstanding anything in the foregoing provi-
(сгрс), following which the magistrate The offence under the Bill is described sions of this Chapter, Parliament has power to
make any law for the whole or any part of the ter-
can either take cognisance directly or as a non-cognisable one thus diluting the ritory of India for implementing any treaty, agree-
gravity of the offence. Hence, it is suggested ment or convention with any other country or
forward the complaint for investigation to
countries or any decision made at any inter-
the police. The delay in these proceedings that the offence under the Bill should be national conference, association or other body."
may lead to destruction of evidence or in- made cognisable, thereby, empowering7 Prem Shanker Shukla vs Delhi Admn AIR 1980 SC
1535; Maccaninon Mackenzie & Co vs Audrey
fluencing the witnesses and, thereby, may the police to register an fir immediatelyD'Coza (1987) 2 SCC 469; Sheela Barse vs Secretary
after receiving the complaint. Children's Aids Society (1987 ) 3 SCC 50; PUCL vs
adversely affect the interests of the victim.
UOIJT (1997) 2 SCC 311; DK Basu vs WB (1997) 1
However, if the offence is made cognisa- The rules for conducting an inquiry in SCC 416.
ble, then the victim can lodge a complaint the unorganised sector should be pres-8 Bill No 6 of 2001.
9 Bill No LXII of 2002.
directly with the police and can set the cribed according to the service rules pre-
10 The Bill is pending before the Lok Sabha, which is
criminal law in motion. vailing in the organised sector. referred to the Select Committee.
The complaint committee should con- 11 http://164.100.47.132bull2.2010/31.12.2010.pdf as

Further, in the absence of a provision viewed on 6 February 2011.
for referring the complaint to the appro- tain at least two members having knowl-12 Section 13(3) reads: "Where the Internal Commit-
tee or the Local Committee, as the case may be,
priate authority for initiating criminal edge and experience in the field of law.
arrives at the conclusion that the allegation
action by the complaint committee, the When the members are selected from non- against the respondent has been proved, it shall
recommend to the employer or the District Officer,
victim may proceed with the inquiry and governmental organisations (ngos), a pro-
as the case may be -
later on, if the findings are against the per selection process should be followed. (i) to take action for sexual harassment as a mis-
With the above-mentioned suggestions conduct in accordance with the provisions of the
victim, she may wish to proceed under the service rules applicable to the respondent or
ipc or under any other law in force. In that incorporated, this Bill could become an where no such service rules have been made, in
such manner as may be prescribed;
event, the delay in registering the fir, and effective legislation to protect women from
21
Economic & Political weekly B3S9 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3
(i*i) to deduct, notwithstanding anything in the the Indian Penal Code or under any other law, initiating inquiry under Section 11 and at the
service rules applicable to the respondent, from the employer shall initiate action in accordance request of the aggrieved woman take steps to
the salary or wages of the respondent such sum of with law by making a complaint with the appro- settle the matter between her and the respondent
compensation to be paid to the aggrieved woman priate authority ensuring that the victims or through conciliation.
or to legal heirs, as it may determine, in accord- witnesses are not victimised or discriminated (2) Where a settlement has been arrived at under
ance with the provisions of Section 15: against while dealing with the complaints of
sub-section (1), the Internal Committee or the Lo-
sexual harassment".
13 Section 19 reads: Every employer shall - cal Committee, as the case may be, shall record
17 Clause 21 of the Protection of Women against the settlement so arrived and forward the same to
Sexual Harassment at Workplace Bill 2007 reads the employer or the District Officer to take action
(g) provide assistance to the woman if she so
as follows:
chooses to file a complaint in relation to the ofas specified in the recommendation.
Where sexual harassment amounts to criminal (3) The Internal Committee or the Local Commit-
fence under the Indian Penal Code or any other
offence: (1) Where the conduct of sexual harass-tee, as the case maybe, shall provide the copies of
law for the time being in force.
ment amounts to a specific offence under the the settlement as recorded under sub-Section (2)
14 Section 19(h) reads: initiate action, under the
Indian Penal Code (45 of i860) or under any other to the aggrieved woman and the respondent.
Indian Penal Code or any other law for the time
law; it shall be the duty of the appropriate author-(4) Where a settlement is arrived at under sub-
being in force, against the perpetrator after the
ity/member of the committee/local officer who
conclusion of the inquiry, or without waiting for Section (1), no further inquiry shall be conducted
receives such a complaint to immediately inform
the inquiry, where the perpetrator is not an em- by the Internal Committee or the Local Commit-
the complainant of her right to initiate action in
ployee in the workplace at which the incident of tee, as the case may be.
accordance with the law with the appropriate au-
sexual harassment took place. thority, and to give advice and guidance regard- 20 Clause 7(i)c of the Bill provided that at least one
15 Guidelines of Supreme Court: 4. Criminal Pro- ing the same. Any such action or proceedings ini- of the nominees should, preferably, have a back-
ceedings: Where such conduct amounts to a spe- tiated shall be in addition to proceedings initiated ground in law or legal knowledge.
cific offence under the Indian Penal Code or 21 Clause 4(i)(b) of the Bill reads that not less than
and/or any action taken under this Act.
under any other law the employer shall initiate (2) Irrespective of whether the complainant optstwo members from amongst employees prefera-
appropriate action in accordance with law by to initiate criminal proceedings under the Indianbly committed to the cause of women or who have
making complaint with the appropriate authority. Penal Code(45 of i860), the district Officer/Mem- had experience in social work or have legal
In particular, it should ensure that victims, or ber of the Committee and the Complaints Com- knowledge.
witnesses are not victimised or discriminated mittees shall be bound to initiate and conduct 22 Clause 26(1) of the Bill.
against while dealing with complaints of sexual proceedings as laid out under this Act. 23 Clause 26(3) of the Bill reads: "Every offence un-
harassment.
18 Apparel Export Promotion Council vs А К Chopra der this Act shall be non-cognisable".
16 Section 7 of the 2003 Bill deals with Criminal Pro- (1999)1 SCC 759. 24 Except section 466, 476, 477 and 493 IPC, all non
ceedings as follows: "Where the conduct of sexual 19 Clause 10(1) The Internal Committee or, as the cognisable offences are bailable. The said sec-
harassment amounts to a specific offence under case may be, the Local Committee, may, before tions are not related to harassment to women.
Some Thoughts on the to follow a heterodox approach is always

discouraged.
Macroeconomics Curriculum It is interesting to note that the current

economic turmoil and popular move-
in India ments like Occupy Wall Street have made

students rethink the social content and
usefulness of the syllabus they study in
the classroom. They have noticed that
G VISAKH VARMA there is a wide gulf between what they
learn in the classroom and what really
In November 2011,
happens in the world in studen
which they live.
a basic course
in the world the curriculum and peda- in Econom
Protests against social and economic
It gogy ingogy
is theof aeconomics
well of world
stronglyeconomics
adhere toknown the curriculum fact strongly that everywhere and adhere peda- to inequality, corporate greed and govern-
at Harvard University w
certain predetermined notions. The ex- ments who care only for the wealthiest
out of the
classroom in p
ceptions are in certain islands of inde-
1% have resulted in unrest among
againstpendent enquirywhat
and vision. The conven- they
students and prompted saw them to look as
one-sidedness
tional wisdom upholds notions which of
critically at the
the curriculum theycur
were
What have been proved absurd by the recent
kind of asked to follow in their classrooms. They
macroecon
advancement in cognitive psychology. The demand a curriculum providing "a broad
is on the curriculum in I
maximisation principle, free market ideol- and critical understanding of economics"
Universities?
ogy, rationality assumption, etc, are taught Arather
select
than the narrow neoclassical sur
as unquestionable. readymade stuff which is considered uni-
As a result, the student community versally applicable.
becomes a puppet in the hands of the In one well-known incident, on 2 No-
master neoclassical economist-puppeteer. vember 2011, the Harvard University Ec-10
I Unlike other social sciences which respect
acknowledge the students sent an "Open Letter
valuable help to Greg g
S Muraleedharan,
a plurality of approaches, for example in Martin
Mankiw" stating thatPatrick,
they are planning to
К Rajesh, С К Hareendranathan a
psychology where we can see the coexist- boycott his classes. Mankiw is the veteran
Unnikrishnan in the preparation o
ence of alternative approaches - like the macroeconomist, textbook writer and in-
G Visakh psychoVarma
analytic, behaviourist, humanis- (varma.visakh@g
structor to entry level students in the Eco-
is at the Department of Economics,
tic, cognitive - economics is dominated by nomics Department of Harvard Universi-
Government College, Kodungallur
a monoeconomics viewpoint. Any attempt ty. The relevant portions of the letter are:
22
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 |Щ|
Dear Professor Mankiw-
• Narrowness - a few unquestioned core reality check about the need to reorient
Today, we are walking out of your class, Eco- propositions like utility maximisation, use the way we teach economics?"
nomics 10, in order to express our discontent of formalistic mathematical deductive
with the bias inherent in this introductory
economics course... we found a course that modelling and the exclusion of otherCurriculum in India
espouses a specific - and limited - view ofmethods, In India, the predominance of growth and
economics that we believe perpetuates prob- • Rigidity - inflexibility of analysis due to development was a prominent feature of
lematic and inefficient systems of economicmethods like marginal analysis, policymaking in the post-independence
inequality in our society today... we have
• Intolerance - hostility and arrogance period. Nevertheless these growth and de-
very little access to alternative approaches to
towards other approaches to economics, velopment issues had strong heterodox
economics. There is no justification for pre-
• Mechanicalness - view that the eco- macroeconomic foundations. To look at
senting Adam Smith's economic theories as
nomy and its actors behave in a machine
more fundamental or basic than, for exam- the changes that have taken place with re-
ple, Keynesian theory... Professor Mankiw,
like way, gard to the syllabi and curriculum of
we ask that you take our concerns and our macroeconomics, one has to refer to the
• Seperateness - the degree to which eco-
walk-out seriously.
nomics is not closely linked or integrated paradigm shift that has taken place in
Sincerely,
with other social sciences so that inter- economic policymaking in India. The Ne-
Concerned students of Economics ю
disciplinary research is seen as a sinful
hruvian path of socialistic pattern of de-
It will be of great use in this context toactivity, and velopment was based on planning with a
look at the basic tenets of the mainstream • Individualism - exclusively focusing on strong emphasis on the public sector
positivist approach. individual decision-making. accompanied with directive policies for a
The mainstream ideology in the cur- more egalitarian distribution of income
Positivistic Economics riculum of leading universities paints a and wealth. Therefore, the economics of
rosy picture of a "rational calculating
Positivism emphasises progress through development and growth became an
economic man". Which is based on these
reason and rationality and rejects meta- integral part of the syllabi for students
shaky foundations. Victoria Chick (2011)and the Robinson-Kaldor-Kalecki-Harrod-
physical and unprovable statements,
labelling them unscientific. It acceptssays, Domar-Sraffa growth dynamics and dis-
only"It is time that the real economists
are
observable and numerical aspects of recognised: those who know whattribution theories became the accepted
the
world. Qualitative, intangible, historical topics of discussion in most university cur-
their values are and put them forward for
public debate, not those who pretend to riculum.
and cultural aspects are rejected out- a While the economics of growth
right. The positivists follow what value-free
they and development witnessed such open
science and wrap their values
in the cloak of a strangely limited form
claim as dispassionate objective analysis. dependence on Keynesian economics,
But knowledge is a complex matter ofand
rationality". macro theory however was taught in
The Harvard students who walked out
there is no simple scientific way to deter- the orthodox style by many universities,
mine what is/what is not knowledge of Mankiw's lectures know this, as did the that is, via the Samuelson-Hicks-Hansen
French
(McCloskey, Dierdre 1994). According to students who several years ago hydraulic apparatus. This period wit-
characterised economics as "autistic":
Caldwell (1982), "There is no universally nessed a tendency not to teach Keynes
not of
applicable, logically compelling method being connected to the real worldshort-run
of theory in depth; it was the long-
theory appraisal". Caldwell further economic
says run extension of Keynes to the dynamics
problems". Robin Wells (2011)
also
that, "The positivist objective side of comments similarly when she says
sci- of growth through post-Keynesian models
"...is Mankiw - and much of the profes-
ence missed half of a beautiful and complex that received wider acceptance. Because
India was initiating planned economic
sion, for that matter - getting a needed
tale". For example, new classical macro-
economics is based on micro foundations
- it believes in adding up micro elements
to get a macro picture. On the other hand,
John Maynard Keynes used a broad im-
pressionistic canvass, a kind of gestalt,
revealing that it is the macroeconomy
which determines micro foundation and
not vice versa.
Thus a non-mainstream approach like

Keynes' General Theory is capable of dif-
ferent interpretations and as Caldwell has
stated can tell the (other) "half of a beauti-
ful and complex tale" which is missed in
positivist analysis.
Tomar (2007) outlines the dimensions
of mainstream economics as follows:
COMMENTARY
like the enthusiastic teaching of new

development, compulsory course material economics and Keynesian theory has been
on development and growth theory
classical macroeconomics. Themes such sidelined in this process. The Delhi School
and Indian economy became part and
as rational expectations, real business
of Economics (dse), Bombay University
parcel of economics courses in India
cycle models, supply-side orientation all
and Hyderabad University have introduced
(Varma 2008). became sole issues in the syllabi of most
financial theory or financial economics as
In the late 1960s and early 1970s, novel
Indian universities. Only a few gave im-
separate elective group of papers at the
portance to heterodox macroeconomics.
attempts were made by some universities postgraduate level (paper numbers 501-04
as in the Osmania University underThe
theidea of free markets based on equilib-
which includes a paper on Econometrics
leadership of Gautam Mathur and as rium
rec- analysis became widespread andof Financial Markets of dse and papers
ommended by economists like К N the
Rajeconomics of every day life fell out of
eco 210 and eco 220 of Bombay Universi-
the curriculum contents.
and I G Patel. The new syllabus incorpo- ty, including a paper on financial deriva-
rated a paper titled "Practical Exercises According
in to Orrell (2010), "Neoclassical
tives) which is rooted in the efficient mar-
Economic Analysis" containing the inte-
economics is based on an explicit compar-
kets theory. Hyderabad University offers
gration of the Robinson-Harrod-Domarison with Newtonian physics". This led to
an old fashioned single paper on macro-
and Kaldor analyses into the disaggrega-
the widespread use of reductionist mathe-
economics titled "Theory of Money, Out-
tive process analysis, as developed bymatics
von in economics. It is worthwhile to
put and Employment", but offers six
Neumann, Leontief, Sraffa and others.
remember Keynes who once commentedeconometrics papers of various dimen-
That was a real revolution in curriculum
"Too large a proportion of recent "mathe-sions (consisting a paper on financial
matical" economics are mere concoctions,econometrics also) and four financial eco-
revision at the graduate level implemented
by a university in India. The recommended
as imprecise as the initial assumptionsnomics papers (consisting of papers like
book was Pushpavathi and Venkatacharthey rest on, which allow the author toComputational Finance and Mathematical
Joshi (1974). lose sight of the complexities and inter-Finance) as elective papers. Moreover
dependencies of the real world in a maze
Another textbook designed for students there are elective papers like Game Theory,
of Osmania University by Meheroo Jussa-
of pretentious and unhelpful symbols"Basic Econometrics, Statistical Methods
walla (1969) describes the issues related
( General Theory, Chapter 21). Economics,in Economics, Optimisation in Economic
as outlined by Keynes is an apparatusTheory and Mathematical Methods in
to economic development exclusively from
of the brain. There is a need to balance Economics. There are too many technical
a post-Keynesian viewpoint, emphasising
Robinson's theory of accumulation, distri-
theory and practice, but this has become asubjects and little or no heterodox or inter-
bution and technical progress. thing of the past in Indian classroomdisciplinary paper in the curriculum.
In the concluding years of the 1970s,economics
the sessions. When the neo-liberal economic theo-
University of Kerala revised its postgradu-
The economics curriculum at present is ries gained popularity in academic cor-
ate economics syllabus with a completely
not broad-based everywhere - there is ners of India in the 1990s, attempts to re-
very little alliance with other social cast macroeconomics curriculum by giv-
post-Keynesian themes-oriented syllabus.
The basic reference text for macroeco- sciences like sociology and politics ing due weight to Keynesian theory was
nomics prescribed was Robinson and Eat-(Skidelsky 2010). At the same time, theresisted by vested interests who had a pro-
well's Principles text (1973). However current
that belief is that a high degree of reforms mindset in, for example, the Ma-
ended in a failure because it turned out to
mathematisation of economics is essential. hatma Gandhi University in Kerala. As
be an extreme experiment for students
The syllabi at least in certain universitiessoon as the first batch of students ap-
who had completed their graduation
arein
framed in that manner. Ever since the peared for their examinations, the sylla-
old fashioned economics. advent of new economic policies, universi- bus was quietly withdrawn.
Thus, an underemphasis on the real
ties have concentrated heavily on market- In this context, it will be interesting to
macroeconomics of Keynes was a promi- clearing type neo-liberal macroeconomics compare and contrast the macroecono-
with a particular focus on casino financialmics syllabi of two universities. Calcutta
nent feature of pre-reform syllabi of many
Indian universities.
Post-Reform Period
The country witnessed great change dur-

ing 1991 in its development efforts, jetti-
soning the Nehruvian path and embracing
of the market-led growth strategy based
upon the "Washington Consensus". Many
universities continued a pro-mainstream
trend in curriculum design, making the
study of macroeconomics more mathemat-
ical and highly technical. Drastic changes
happened after reforms in curriculum
24
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 E33S3 Economic & Political WEEKLY
University and Calicut University as out- macroeconomics with a Keynesian orien- brought back to the curriculum by the uni-
lined in their websites. (Due allowance tation (though due place is also given to versity. Heterodox texts like that of Brian
must be given to the fact that the sites may market clearing theories) and incorpo- Snowdown, Howard Vane and Peter Wyn-
not be up to date.) rates topics such as structuralist, demand- arczyk (2001) are prescribed as essential
Calcutta University conducts an MSc constrained, Kaleckian, monetarist, dual reading along with popular texts like that
course in economics, while Calicut Uni- gap and north-south models of the open ofMankiw's.
versity offers an ma course in economics. economy, Great Depression and alternative It will be interesting here to compare
the nature of the curriculum of macroeco-
Table 1: Selected Features of Syllabi of Macroeconomics across Universities
University Zone Orientation of Heterodox Books What Is New nomics in some regional universities at
the postgraduate level. Table 1 summaris-
Goa West Mainstream Nil Mainstream Endogenous growth es four important aspects of the macro-
and heterodox and covergence
economics syllabus - its orientation,
whether or not heterodox macroeconomic
Punjab
topics are included, the nature of the rec-

Tripura East Mainstream Minsky's FIH, Mainstream Endogenous growth,
and heterodox Chapter 17 of AKandRomer's ommended books, and what is special or
General Theory models new in the macroeconomics or general
Kakatiya South Traditional Nil Mainstream for Strong political syllabus.
macroeconomics economy orientation
but classics for in two other Five universities from the west, north,
east, south and central zones of India are
Amravati Central Traditional Nil Mainstream An exclusive and selected for this purpose. The selected
exhaustive optional
universities were Goa, Punjab, Tripura,
paperon business
Kakatiya and Amravati.
Goa University's macroeconomics sylla-
FIH-Finan
Source: Websites of universities.
bus gives mainstream classical and Key-
Calcutta University's MSc course includes viewpoints on its cause, current global re- nesian topics including new classical, real
among other papers, Economics of Money cession and crisis (viewpoints by conserv- business cycle and new Keynesian models
(paper xid), Theory of Monetary Policy ative and Keynesian economists such as but does not list any of the heterodox the-
(paper xiid), Advanced Macroeconomics (Eugene Fama and Paul Krugman), dis- ories. The recommended books are main-
(papers xvb-xvib) and the like. A sample equilibrium macro models, post-Keynesian stream texts as well as heterodox texts
of topics included in these papers and the macroeconomics (the historical time con- (this is surprising since heterodox topics
core paper и on Macroeconomic Theory cept, uncertainty and expectations, Kalecki's are not included). The syllabus covers new
show their neo -liberal orientation models pricing theory, Minsky's financial insta- endogenous growth theory and conver-
of aggregate supply, adaptive and rational bility theory), the New Keynesians' micro gent hypothesis as well. Punjab Universi-
expectations, policy evaluation and the foundations theories, endogenous growth ty's syllabus is a "traditional type", that is,
Lucas critique, new classical analysis, real model, etc. Business cycle theory which it consists of conventional topics like clas-
business cycles, test of rational expecta- was lost and forgotten during the post- sical and Keynesian output and employ-
tions, money in general equilibrium, etc liberalisation period due to the over en- ment theories, demand for money, etc.
(Keynesian economics, theories of Kalecki, thusiasm of the equilibrium theorists was No heterodox topic finds a place in the
Sraffa and Post-Keynesian theories are
shunted to paper number x titled "History Call for papers
of Economic Analysis"; in the same paper UGC Sponsored National Seminar
on
the section on approaches to economic
"Economics and Quality of Higher Education in the Context of
methodology includes such topics like
Changing Nature of Labour Market in India"
positivism, modernism, postmodernism,
Sub themes: 1) Post reforms fiscal provision for higher education.
etc, but not heterodox methodology). 2) Education and employment
From the reference texts a sample are 3) Labour market reforms.
4) Labour market informalisation and employment opportunities.
books like Dynamic Macroeconomic Theo- 5) Privatization / private investment in Indian Higher Education.
ry by Thomas Sargeant (1987), Recursive 6) Higher Education reforms.
Methods in Economic Dynamics by N Stok- Last date of submission of papers: 2nd February 2012.
ey, Robert Lucas and Edward Prescott Please send your paper on: onkar_rasal@yahoo.co.in omrasal82@gmail.com
(1989), and Recursive Macroeconomic The- For details please contact: Coordinator: Prof. Singar J. R. Head, Department of Economics
098608431 87/09822751 027/09422855890
ory by Lars Ljungqvist and Thomas The accommodation will provided at Shirdi.
Sargeant (2000). Organized by
On the other hand, Calicut University's Department of Economics
ma economics course which follows a het- Pravara Rural Education Society's Arts, Commerce and Science College,
Satral, Dist. Ahmednagar (MS) India.
erodox approach offers two papers on
syllabus. The books recommended are of Great Recession of 2008. This return to Skidelsky, Robert (2010): Keynes: The Return of the
Master (London: Penguin).
the mainstream variety and nothing new heterodox curriculum is a welcome trend
Snowdown, Brian, Howard Vane and Peter Wynarc-
or special can be noticed in the topics cov- and it will probably help make the stu- zyk (2001): A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics:
dents committed to the world in which An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought,
ered. Tripura University has some special
Edward Elgar.
features in its macroeconomics syllabus, they live so that the Mankiw type inci-Tomar, John F (2007): "What Is Behavioural Econom-
for the orientation is both mainstream dents may not occur in the future. ics?", Journal ofSocio-Economics, 36(3), June.
Varma, G V (2008): "Nurksian Contributions and De-
and heterodox (balanced). It gives special velopment Economics Curriculum", Economic &
place to Minsky's hypothesis and Chapter REFERENCES Political Weekly, Vol XLIII, No 28, 12-18 July,
pp 186-89.
1 7 of Keynes' General Theory titled "The An Open Letter to Greg
Varma, G V and S Muraleedharan (2011): "Is Keynes an-o
line.org/harvard/
Essential Properties of Interest and Money" Static in the Class Room?", unpublished paper se-
Chickin Victoria (2011
and it consists of new topics (as per Indian lected for presentation at Roskilde University, 2on/
commentisfree/
Denmark, May.
standards) like endogenous growth, and schumacher
J (1982): Beyond Positivism: Economic Wells, Robin (2011): file:///C:/Documents%2oand%
Romer's models. However, the recom-Caldwell, Bruce 2oSettings/nodei/ Desktop/Macro/robin-wells-
Methodology in the Twentieth Century (London:
mended books are mainstream texts. Allen and Unwin). we-are-greg-mankiw%E2%8o%A6-or-not.htm
Kakatiya University in Andhra PradeshJussawalla, Meheroo (1969): Economics of Develop-

ment, second reprint (New Delhi: Oxford and IBH).
follows a traditional syllabus, but has in-Kurien, С T (2002): "Learning Economics", Dr Mal- SELECT SYLLABI
troduced classical political economy, mod- colm Adiseshiah Memorial Lecture, Department http://www.mu.ac.in/arts/social_science/eco/
of Economics, Madras Christian College, Chen- maprg.html
ern and Indian political economy and eco-
nai, 14 February. http://www.caluniv.ac.in/academic/MScSyllabus.pdf
nomic anthropology and tribal studiesMcCloskey, Dierdre (1994): Knowledge and Persuasion
http://www.uohyd.info/index.php/academics/
(with field trips to tribal areas), recom- in Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University schools-of-study/social-sciences/dept-
Press).
mending classic books of V I Lenin, Joan economics/program
Mody, Ashoka (2007): "The Quest for Inclusive
http://www.econdse.org/program-frame.htm
Robinson, Maurice Dobb, Paul Baran, Paul Growth: Continuity and Constraints in Indian
http://www.unigoa.ac.in/uploads/course/Syllabu
Sweezy, D D Kosambi, Krishna Bharadwaj Economic Policies" in A Vaidyanathan and
DeptOfEconomics/Annexure-I%2oMA%2o
К L Krishna (ed.), Institutions and Markets in
and others. syllabus.pdf
India's Development: Essays for К N Raj (New
http://www.puchd.ac.in/includes/syllabus/2010/
Sant Gadge Baba Amravati Univer- Delhi: Oxford University Press).
Orell, David (2010): Economy ths: Ten Ways That Econ- 20100921161840-m-a-ec0n0mics-parts-i-ii.pdf
sity has introduced a traditional macro- http://tripurauniv.in/images/stories/University/
omists Get It Wrong (London: Icon Books).
economics syllabus with no heterodox con-Pushpavathi, R and Venkatachar Joshi (1974): Practi- Facultydata/EconomicsPG.pdf
tents and recommends mainstream texts. cal Exercises in Economic Analysis (New Delhi: http://www.kuwarangal.com/uploads/academics/
Oxford and IBH), first edition. faculties/SocialSciences/Economics/MA_
It has, however, introduced an exhaustive Ec0n0mics_4Semesters_Syllabus.pdf
Robison, Joan and John Eatwell (1973): Introduction
and exclusive important optional paper on to Modern Economics (New York: McGrawHill). http://www.sgbau.ac.in/m.a.economics-io.pdf
business cycles, a laudable venture high-
lighting the importance of studying cycles
in the post-recession period and thereby
indirectly questioning the new classical
viewpoint that business cycles are "equilib- EPW 5-Year CD-ROM 2004-08 on a Single Disk
rium phenomena". Thus, a perusal of the
The digital versions of Economic and Political Weekly for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 are
syllabi of select regional universities show
now available on a single disk. The CD-ROM contains the complete text of 261 issues published
that heterodox approaches to macroeco-
from 2004 to 2008 and comes equipped with a powerful search, tools to help organise research
nomics have not gained much attention of
and utilities to make your browsing experience productive.The contents of the CD-ROM are organised
those who set the syllabus. as in the print edition, with articles laid out in individual sections in each issue.
Conclusions With its easy-to-use features, the CD-ROM will be a convenient resource for social scientists,
researchers and executives in government and non-government organisations, social and political
The syllabi in economics in Indian univer-
activists, students, corporate and public sector executives and journalists.
sities in the first two decades after inde-
Price for 5 year CD-ROM (in INDIA)
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phasis after the economic reforms of at
1991
epw.in
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Any queries please email: circulation@epw.in
supply-side economics, new classical eco-
nomics, etc. The sidelining of Keynesian Circulation Manager,
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sities like Calicut University in favour of Mumbai 400 013, India
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26
January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 Economic & Political WEEKLY
Inflation: Sources, Challenges
facts surrounding the Indian situation?
What could be an alternate policy response?
and Policy Options

These are some of the questions that were
addressed at a one-day seminar on infla-
tion at the National Institute of Public
Finance and Policy (nipfp) New Delhi

SUKANYA BOSE last November that saw researchers and
policymakers openly discuss and debate

Despite the range of monetarist, the sources, challenges and policy options
micro-behavioural and sensus on monetary policy" is that to tackle the problem.
The central sensuscentral
centralbankson banks
have themonetary
policy toolstenet have of the "the policy" policy new is tools con- that
cost-push explanations for the Alternate Views
to act decisively against inflation. This
recent episode of inflation that understanding of monetary policy has been of the Inflationary Process
were presented at a seminar in hugely influential in actual policy formu- Mihir Rakshit, the key speaker at the semi-
New Delhi last November, there lation and follows essentially from the old nar, began by pointing out that mainstream
monetarist postulate that long-term sus- theory on inflation, particularly in the con-
was general consensus that
tained inflation is always associated with text of the past five years, has failed to
monetary tightening had failed toexcessive money growth, and that the explain inflationary behaviour in India. In-
have its desired impact. Further, control of money is both necessary and stead, he proposed an alternate analytical
it was unclear whether India sufficient to control inflation (Friedman framework for understanding the infla-
1968). Inflationary expectations have a tionary process, based on the interplay
could afford the concomitant
major role in the new consensus view and of sectoral and macroeconomic factors.
growth slowdown. Instead, a shiftact by propagating the wage-price signal. Drawing support from his empirical find-
in policy focus to agricultural Inflationary expectations, however, can ings published in the Economic & Political
be made to conform to the low rate of Weekly , Rakshit (2011) argued that the
production and the distribution
inflation desired by the central bank if source of inflation during the period 2006
and pricing of strategic food and
the central bank is credibly committed to 2010 was not excess demand but rather
to
fuel commodities was seen as a sector-specific cost-push factors such as
following a non-inflationary money growth
more promising option. rule (Lucas and Sargent 1981). price of fuel, which determines the whole-
Compared to the analysis by Friedmansale price index (wpi) inflation, or adverse
and rational expectations theorists, thesupply shocks in agricultural output, which
one important distinction in the new con-determine consumer price index (cpi) infla-
sensus view lies in replacing the moneytion. Accordingly, he urged the rbi (1) to
growth rule with a nominal interest rateidentify the sources of inflation through a
rule: "interest rate rather than moneycareful scrutiny of sector-specific movements
supply is the key instrument that shouldin prices, and (2) to study the transmission
be adjusted" by the central bank (Taylorof supply shocks to general price inflation.
1999: 47). When there is a difference Price rise triggered by a supply shock in
between actual and targeted inflation orone sector will usually mean a movement
actual and potential output, the interestfrom one equilibrium price level to anoth-
rate is automatically adjusted upwards. er level and need not translate to general-
Monetary policy in India has beenised inflation unless there is an associated
wage-price spiral. For the period under
strongly guided by this logic, although it
analysis, there is clear evidence against a
does not have an explicit inflation target. In
the recent inflationary episode of persistentwage-price spiral operating, from study of
inflation for two years since Decemberthe impact of food inflation on wages. This
2009, the Reserve Bank of India (rbi) hascould be traced to jobless growth and the
responded through a series of policy inter-sharp rise in informal employment and
est rate increases to "contain inflation andthe consequent diminution of union power
I gratefully acknowledge overall guidance anchor inflationary expectations by rein-in industrial wage bargaining. It follows
and detailed comments by Sudipto Mundle, ing in demand side pressures".1 Yet not-from these empirical findings that the
and suggestions by Surajit Das and withstanding the 13 repo rate hikes from underlying structure of the Indian economy
N R Bhanumurthy on the draft note.
4.75% to 8.5%, inflation continues unabated.contains a fix-price sector with cost-plus
Sukanya Bose ( sukanyalb@gmail.com ) is with What accounts for the failure of inflationpricing, and excess capacity in production.
the National Institute of Public Finance and Higher costs translate to higher prices,
to respond to monetary tightening? Are
Policy, New Delhi. whereas changes in demand within limits
there alternate views that can explain the
do not impinge on prices or inflation, except India over the past decade or so can be growth in agriculture is coming from in-
indirectly through changes in costs. explained by the relative prices for agri- creased use of purchased inputs; the higher
The importance of a fix-price sector was culture in general and the relative prices costs do not allow producers to lower prices.
emphasised by Sudipto Mundle, who argued for food in particular. An increase in the From a theoretical point of view, the appar-
that the manufacturing sector and the ad- price of food is reflected in higher cost to ent paradox of relative price changes and
ministered pricing sector account for more industries, whereas higher industrial growth growth in agricultural output can be seen as
than 60-65% of the prices in the Indian puts an upward pressure on agricultural movements along the production possibility
economy. A relatively small segment, like prices. With the growing use of industrial frontier (ppf) without an outward shift in
the agriculture sector, has flex prices, at inputs in agriculture, there is also a cost- it, a phenomenon that has been observed at
least above the minimum support prices. push effect coming from industry into agri- the global level as well, Abhijit Sen noted.
This strongly suggests that the economy culture. According to this view, monetary What could be future sources of agri-
operates in the horizontal range of the policy has been unable to reduce inflation cultural growth with economies in cost of
aggregate supply curve. Any policy-induced because it is not able to squeeze out the production? And how is government "plan-
compression in demand will cause the out- rise in the prices of agricultural goods. ning" to increase growth and productivity,
put to fall, while cost-push bears on prices Food is a necessity, so the price elasticity M Govinda Rao asked? Several policy
and inflation. Orthodox monetary measures of consumption is low. Instead food price directions were suggested: (1) Overcoming
would be of little avail as anti-inflationary inflation squeezes the demand for non-ag- the huge problems of governance that exist
devices, and this is borne out by the lack ricultural goods, as expenditure on non- now and raising public sector investments
of a significant relationship between infla- agricultural items is substituted by ex- in agriculture are both seen as essential
tion and the interest rate (prime lending penditure on food. Higher interest rates steps. Extension services, an area we have
rate) for India over the last 15 years. would further squeeze the growth of the ignored in the past 20 years, is central
Two different ideas explained the origin non-food sector, without necessarily being to raising productivity in agriculture,
of the cost-push. One view, offered by able to reduce the demand for food and P Balakrishnan argued. (2) The capacity
Sudipto Mundle and Abhijit Sen and sup- to intervene through parastatals must be
therefore its price. Even if monetary poli-
ported by empirical evidence, argued that continued in a strengthened manner. At
cy works, it would be temporary; accord-
the pressures of cost-push originate from the ing to Ajit К Ghose, inflation would resur-
present, even in years of high growth, per
high international prices of metal, fuel, and face as soon as industrial growth revives. capita availability of food has at times fall-
food, which in an open economy are trans- en because of excessive stockpiles with
mitted to domestic prices. Consistent with Agriculture Cost-Push the government, Ramesh Chand pointed
this point of view, using estimates from a and Micro-Behaviour
out. (3) Modernising retail or fdi in retail
structural macro-model, N R Bhanumurthy, is not
The suggested solution then lies not with the the answer, according to Sukhpal
Surajit Das and Sukanya Bose showed that Singh, as evidence on food retail chains
monetary authorities but with the govern-
a shock in international oil prices results ment. Policy would have to alter theclearly
agri- point to higher margins; an effec-
in a fall in average gross domestic product cultural supply-side, especially for food. It
tive public distribution system (pds) along
(gdp) growth, and pushes the inflation would have to ensure more food and with controls on futures trading can
rate up, both in the year of shock as well as provide
thereby a decline in relative prices. This is a handle on food price inflation.
on average over the following five years. how industrial economies have solved their
According to this view, the real solution to
The effects of an oil price shock on growth food problem. Over very long periodsinflation
of in the Indian economy lies in aug-
and inflation are more intense in the year 25 to 30 years, countries like South Korea
menting the supply-side in the farm sector.
of the shock and get slowly mitigated over A different perspective comes from a
had a higher rate of per capita food growth
time. For alternative scenarios, as the than India had of aggregate food growth.
micro-behavioural explanation of inflation,
pass-through of international oil prices to On the other hand in India, Ramesh Chand
advanced by Kaushik Basu, with financial
domestic prices increases from 0% to pointed out that between 2004-05 and
inclusion as a possible reason for the high-
100% and budgetary subsidies fall, the 2009-10, growth in food consumptioneron
inflation. With financial inclusion, mon-
inflation rate goes up further and the an average stood at 4.1%, whereas growth
ey particularly rural savings that would
decline in real economic growth is sharper.2 in food production remained at 3.1%. otherwise
The be kept as cash at home, flow
A second view on cost-push perceives higher demand for food in an economy wit-
back into the system; this in turn, through
the problem as originating in the agricul- nessing accelerated growth, at the same time
a higher velocity of circulation of money,
tural sector, particularly in the price of food. that the growth of food production (and
contributes to inflationary pressure. To this
The categorisation of the economy into fix- per capita availability) has stagnated, caused
essentially monetarist logic of more money
price and flex-price sectors, originally due a serious mismatch in demand and supply.
chasing fewer goods and therefore result-
to Kalecki (1971) and Hicks (1974) consti- A related point of concern is that record
ing in higher inflation, Basu linked the idea
tutes the core of structuralist economics. food production, as in 2010-11, did not bring
of credit market imperfections to explain
Referring to the structuralist understand- down agricultural prices. While there why
are monetary tightening might not work.
ing of inflation, Pulapre Balakrishnan several contributing factors, agricultural
In the standard neoclassical setting, the
argued that the trajectory of inflation in economists are of the view that much of rationale
the for raising interest rates is that
28
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 «Mavì Economic & Political WEEKLY
firms borrowing money would borrow less, the wage growth for rural unskilled la-
before rate hikes could begin to gain trac-
so that the growth of credit in the economy bourers with increases in prices as meas-
tion, Mridul Saggar suggested. Referring
would slow and inflation fall. But there can ured by state-wise cpi-Rural Labourers
to the period of the global financial crisis
be situations when this is not true, say, when and the attendant stimulus, Renu Kohli
inflation. The former has grown faster
there is initial disequilibrium in the credit than the latter in 2010-11, which along
added that monetary responses had gone
market. Suppose in a credit market with with indexation of nrega wages, points overboard,
to with sharp cuts in interest rates.
upward sloping supply and downward the possibility of a wage-price spiral. The
Liquidity had been allowed to remain in the
sloping demand, interest rate happens to other explanation on the demand-side put
economy, until the 3G auction took place.
be at ri which is lower than the market- Then the situation was reversed. Perhaps
forth by the rbi is the rising share, in both
clearing equilibrium interest rate, r*. rural and urban areas, of protein-based
this liquidity could have been mopped up
When the interest rate is increased, de- sooner. As a guide to monetary policy, a
items in the consumption basket. Induced
mand for credit falls, but the demand was forward-looking indicator of inflationary
by higher incomes, it is contributing to pro-
not the effective constraint initially. With tein inflation and thereby food inflation. expectations in the Indian context would be
the higher interest rate, the supply of credit A third set of evidence on the contribu-the observed change in household behav-
and the total amount of credit provision tion of demand-side pressures to core
iour vis-à-vis money balances, Kohli argued.
goes up. Higher interest rates can then be inflation comes from the relationship
It has been observed consistently in two or
associated with higher inflation. Basu offers three episodes of inflation since 2000 on-
between inflation and growth in industrial
this as an explanation of the serendipitous production, where the latter is used aswards
a that the public's currency holdings
results that TUrkey obtained when it lowered proxy for capacity utilisation. Sanjay Pant,
start rising, and the public's money balances
its policy interest rates to stem capital start shifting from time deposits to cash,
of the International Monetary Fund (imf),
inflows, but found inflation declining. challenged the notion of the Indian eco-
signalling rising inflationary expectations.
In sum, three alternative theories of The divergence between mi and мз grows
nomy operating on the horizontal portion
inflation grounded in the institutional and because agents' responses change with
of the aggregate supply curve by showing
structural characteristics of the Indian sit- that there exists a positive correlation
falling return on their balances. In the recent
uation were presented as alternatives to bout of inflation, this shift started since
between wpi inflation in the current period
the mainstream theory of inflation. One July 2009. The rbi, with its multiple indi-
(t) and growth in industrial production in
showed the predominance of cost-push period t-3, i e, three months preceding. cator
A approach, should have noticed it.
factors with a substantial part of the cost- positive correlation coefficient of +0.3,
(2) The other point relates to interest rate
push originating in international price hikes
according to Pant, supports the hypothesis in real as against nominal terms.
movements; a second focused on the in- Those favouring monetary tightening
of the economy nearing full capacity utili-
teraction of agriculture and industry with sation such that the aggregate demand
argued that the real rates of interest in
the relative price of food holding the key India are not that high despite the policy
intersects the aggregate supply curve in its
to overall inflation. The third focused on
upward sloping segment. That being so,rate hikes and the upward movement
monetary sector micro-behaviour and tighter monetary policy should be able to nominal interest rates. The economy
of
needed a much larger dose of interest rate
market imperfections. While presenting bring down inflation in the economy. Be-
increase to tackle inflation. After all, Paul
alternative understandings of inflation, sides, tighter monetary policy is warranted
Volcker, in the first half of the 1980s, had
the$e theories unequivocally questioned the for anchoring inflationary expectations,
raised the short-term interest rates of the
which were still reigning at high levels,
interest rate hikes: if high interest rates will
hurt growth and we are uncertain about according to household surveys. Federal Reserve to 18%. Nirvikar Singh
noted that this killed the inflation and
the^r impact on inflation, why raise them? The data presented by Pant actually shows
anchored the inflationary expectations.
very little correlation between industrial
A Gase of Too Little? growth and inflation. Further, when the How much pain we are willing to put up
problem is posed as one of demand pull, with,
From the mainstream perspective, the recent it in terms of reductions in growth
rate, in order to kill inflation is therefore
begs the question why monetary tighten-
monetary policy measures seem not only
ing and increasing policy interest rate
justified, but even overcautious. Some have the real question. It might be argued that
have not been able to tackle inflation. Thewe need to tame inflation now since it will
indicated that a sharper increase in policy
hurt growth in the future: inflation keeps
following discussion attempts to respond
interest rates instead of the recent baby steps
would have been effective in bringing down accelerating, once inflation expectations
to this point by alluding to two aspects of
monetary policy action: (1) the timings are
inflationary expectations and inflation. The of not anchored, with hyper-inflation the
argument here hinges on showing that ex-monetary tightening, and (2) the adequacy ultimate result (á la nairu).
of the interest rate response to inflation.
cess demand pressures exist or that a wage- However, as Singh himself pointed out,
some of the east Asian miracle economies,
(1) In the present inflationary episode,
pride spiral triggered by high inflationary
expectations is working in the economy. like Korea, and even Japan over long periods
monetary policy initially was constrained
of time, put up with high inflation which
by the large stimulus given during the
Challenging Mihir Rakshiťs claim of the
did not spiral into hyperinflation, in order to
global financial crisis, so the large surplus
absence of a wage-price spiral, Mridul Saggar
achieve 10-12% growth rates. On the other
liquidity needed to be siphoned out first,
of the RBi presented evidence comparing
Economic & Political weekly Ш1 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^9
hand, as Sudipto Mundle and Pulapre public investment in agriculture or effec-
differences on their origin and transmis-
Balakrishnan noted, the Volcker deflation tive PDS, byheld
sion. The first of these perspectives their very nature, would
brought about a severe recession in the cushiontrans-
higher international prices and their the adverse impact of inflation on
United States (us), and triggered the Latin the consumptioncul-
mission to domestic prices as the main and income baskets of
American debt crisis, leading ultimately to low-income and vulnerable households.
prit, causing policy, including monetary
"the lost decade". policy, to be of little use in the face of
imported inflation. The other argument
notes
Monetary Tightening: regarded demand-supply imbalances and

1 RBI
June
Feasible or Desirable?
higher food prices as the source. An access
in/rd
appropriate policy response, as per
To conclude, there was general consensus this
2 While increases in the inflation rate are a direct
that monetary tightening has failedview,
in itswould involve changing the agricul-
outcome of the deregulation of domestic oil prices,
desired impact on inflation, though supply-side to bring forth more the

turalthe decline
food in economic growth is because of the
negative fiscal multiplier effect from a decline in
through
underlying arguments, reflecting four dis- active public policy intervention.
oil subsidies, ceteris paribus, that add to contrac-
Given tionary tendencies due to the higher trade deficit.
tinct views, were vastly different. Thethe nature of recent inflation in
India,
monetarists held the "baby steps" app-the majority of the evidence and
REFERENCES
roach responsible for the persistence of presented at the seminar put
arguments
Friedman, Milton (1968): "The Role of Moneta
inflation, and argued that aggressive
under serious doubt the claim that tighter
Policy American Economic Review, 58(1): 1-17.
tightening early in the inflation monetary
episode policy can bring inflationdown. Hicks, J R (1974): The Crisis of Keynesian Econom
Instead
would have brought inflation under con-a shift in policy focus to address (Oxford: Basil Blackwell).
Kalecki, M (1971): Selected Essays on the Dynamic
trol, with a slowdown in growthissues
beingin agricultural production, along the Capitalist Economy (Cambridge: Cambridg
part of the trade-off. A second, diametri-
with issues in the distribution and pricing University Press).
Lucas, R E and T J Sargent (1981): Rational Expectati
of strategic
cally opposite, view argued that while in- commodities like food and and Econometric Practice (London: Allen & Unwin
terest rate hikes have not helped infuel, seems to be a "reasonable" policy Rakshit,
infla- Mihir (2011): "Inflation and Relative Prices
tion control, a reduction in interest rate
path, one that might enable a moderation India 2006-10: Some Analytical and Policy Issues"
Economic & Political Weekly, 46(16): 41-54.
might have brought down inflation such
of the inflation in the medium, if not in the
Taylor, J В (1999): "Monetary Policy Guidelines f
as in the Turkish case. Two views analysed
short term. Not only can the welfare losses Employment and Inflation Stability" in Solow
R M and J В Taylor (ed.), Inflation, Unemploy
the inflation episode as primarilyfrom
due atoreduction in economic growth be ment and Monetary Policy (Cambridge: Massachu
avoided this way, policies like greater
cost-push factors, albeit with important setts: MIT Press).
Greece Crisis: The Story of the

extent to which this practice would have
also include the other heavily indebted eur
Un-Representative Democracy
zone nations is debatable. However, it h
become evident that the Greek governme
and economy are ill-equipped to undertak
short-term solution. In the meanwhile, t
DIONYSIOS С WATSON would have given Europe the time to cre
the democratic mechanisms that would
The Greek allow for people

more widespread management of
the other
internal roots, has served as a warn- indebted
the functioning of individual countries.
The internal ing Greek indicatorforroots,
ing indicator debt for
the current modelcrisis, has the served regardless current as a model warn- of its Rather than pursuing such an ad hoc
of Europe are mak
of the eurozone. It has shown that Europe's federalist move in response to the Greek
sacrifices in order
lack of democratic, constitutional unity debt crisis, eurozone leaders have opted
the stability
greatly limits both the robustness and the for a financial quickof
fix that is backed byth
theireffectiveness of central leadership

own initiatives. theplace
International Monetary Fund (imf). in
Indeed, it could have been fortunate that For the past few years, gun to its head, the
Union,
the absolute size of Greece's debt is so small
without an
Greek government has been faced with
efforts compared to the combined economies of to rebuild
the task of reversing an entrenched cul-
national economies. the eurozone nations (i e, roughly 3.5% of ture of nepotism, embezzlement, and in-
eurozone gdp). Thus, a viable solution from efficiency. And it cannot. Honestly, what is
the outset could have been for a political the likelihood that any government can
decision that allowed a large portion overcome decades of damage in a couple
Dionysios С Watson ( dionysios.watson@gmail (>50%) of Greek debt to be essentially of years? This do-or-die strategy that has
com) is a Greek- American junior physician who assumed by the European Central Bank in been imposed on the country has led only
has recently graduated from the University of
exchange for a 10-20 year programme for to massive taxation, income cuts and a
Patras, Greece.
restructuring, stability and growth. The steady economic collapse.
30 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 ШЗН Economic & Political weekly
Given this vicious taxation-recession former Prime Minister George Papandreou'sgovernment put in place solely to imple-
cycle, the Greek budget deficit still cannot announcement
be of a referendum regarding ment central euro decisions at any cost.
the 27 October (2011) agreement on Europe's One can only hope that the Franco-
adequately controlled, leading our European
Union (eu) and imf brothers/overlords rescue
to plan. The announcement causedGerman strategy results from their unique
global political and economic turmoil, as itindividual positions as potential protectors
pull a little more on the leash by demand-
became evident that non-agreement on theof euro integrity in the face of insolvency
ing tens of thousands of instant lay-offs
from the, admittedly, oversized public part of any eurozone nation spelled doomand that their inflexible stance against in-
for the monetary union, with unpredict-debted nations seeks to preserve the well-
sefctor. Even if plans to retrain these indi-
able effects on the world economy. Withinbeing of the sum of eurozone members.
viduals are put into action, it is unlikely
th^t former government employees will hours, German Chancellor Angela MerkelHowever, there is a line between taking ini-
and French President Nicolas Sarkozytiative and assuming complete control. If
ever join the workforce again in Greece's
hostile economic environment with a announced that the only issue that could beMerkel and Sarkozy were treading on this
17.7% unemployment rate. put to vote in a potential referendum would line in the months preceding the October
be the eu membership status of Greece,European summit, they crossed it with
Coercion of Greeks not the acceptance of the loan agreement. one large stride following their de facto
How legitimate is it for any governing The pivotal Merkel-Sarkozy response toultimatum to Greece regarding the latest
body to be coerced into abolishing boththe proposed referendum constituted aloan agreement.
social and legal agreements, by effectivelysignificant blow to the eu culture of open Today, unviable public debt has resulted
minimising the standard of living of all itsdialogue and negotiation on equal terms,in the mitigation of negotiating power for
citizens and circumventing employmentamong all member states. Essentially, thethe disrespectfully labelled "pugs" (Portu-
contracts through gross public sector lay-two most economically powerful eurozonegal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece and Spain). In
offs? Is it truly prudent to blackmail a sup- nations individually established a positionthe future, any given situation affecting
posedly sibling nation into weakening theregarding the continued membership ofother eurozone members could have simi-
personal finances and lives of 11 millionGreece, rather than opting for a commonlar results, including the prospect of non-
people with one swift blow? eu decision on the matter. When consideredcompliance to central initiatives resulting
One might argue that Greece is being alongside the fact that selection of plans toin loss of eu membership. The people of
duly punished for their years of misman-rescue the euro hinge on agreement byGreece and of the other indebted countries
agement and that there is no reason forMerkel and Sarkozy, the lack of tactfulare sacrificing a lot in order to maintain
others to suffer for their deeds. This attitudediplomacy entailed by the Franco-Germanthe stability of the euro and their place in
betrays the core of the euro-conundrum,reaction becomes obvious. Adding to thisthe union, without any talk of efforts to
which lies in its current demi-union status.inappropriateness is the very nature ofrebuild their now injured national econo-
True unity has the prerequisite of com- the said rescue strategies backed by thesemies. More importantly, there is no evidence
of a transformation of eu governance in a
plete solidarity and equality. Additionally,two countries, which are based on quick
direction that will allow these citizens to
the proposed solutions are counterintui-numerical results with disregard for social
tive to the self-interests of the other euro-efficacy and long-term effectiveness. have a significant, direct say in the politi-
zone nations, given the economic "con- Thus, it is not surprising that the cal platforms pursued (and thus, imposed)
tagion" that is linked to the prospect ofunilateral declaration of the terms of by the eu governing bodies.
uncontrolled Greek default. continued eu membership made by the Without a stronger democratic connec-
Furthermore, if we disregard the rashtwo major determiners of eurozone policy tion between the people and the centralised
option of a denial of eu aid followed by ancan be seen as a turning point in the European governance, European officials
exit from the monetary union, it becomeshistory of the union. It seems that power will always represent an oligarchy to
evident that the decisions of the eurozone in the eurozone is no longer collective; which citizens have indirectly sacrificed a
leaders are, in essence, law. The only prob-power stems not from its citizens, but part of their freedom.
lemi is that the Greek people did not vote from the economic leverage of individual
for these leaders that are deciding on itsmember states.
behalf. Of course, we did vote for our own
government, which is in turn charged withDistancing from EU
standing up for our interests. However, theThe fallout from this political fencing
central eu decision-making entity is com-match between Germany-France and
posed solely of foreign-elected and non-Greece has led to a series of events in the
elected officials who also happen to controlpast months through which eu citizens
our monetary policy and a large portion ofhave been further distanced from decision-
oui funding. This makes the playing fieldmaking authorities. Both Greece and Italy
for negotiations exceptionally uneven. (the most recent eu member facing an
The degree to which Greek sovereigntyimminent debt crisis) no longer have an
has been usurped became lucid followingelected government, but rather an interim
Economic & Political weekly QS53
Satyadev Dubey:
tragedy of life, he also claimed to understand
their plays better than they did. He would
Director of Words and Ideas therefore give himself the liberty to alter
the form and focus of a play in order to
bring out what he saw as its hidden truth.
Sometimes this was done with a shift of em-
SHANTA GOKHALE phasis or recasting of a character; at others,
as in his production of Karnad's Wedding
Satyadev Dubey loved provoking Album , the changes were pretty radical. If
who passed away on 25 December,
a debate and was never happier playwrights grumbled, some of them also
Theatre who afterafter
passed two director
twomonths away Satyadev onin
months in 25coma
coma December, follow- Dubey
follow- conceded that his alterations were made not
than when he could get young
ing a stroke, had earned two sobriquetsout of arrogant power play, but out of a genu-
theatre practitioners to "react"
that were often used to define him. These ine engagement with the material. When
rather than passively were:
accept his"enfant terrible of theatre" and the Marxist playwright, G P Deshpande was
"maverick theatre director". Both were asked why he gave his plays to a man who
opinions. Over half a century
coined by the press for the provocativesubscribed to the Rashtriya Swyamsevak
he directed more than 100statements
plays he made in interviews and in his Sangh (rss) ideology, his simple counter-
in Hindi, Marathi, Gujarati and
own columns. But the statements were not question was, "Who else will do them?"
English, seeking out young
made only for effect. Behind them lay a Dubey's rss ideology appears to have
desire for debate. "React" was the impera- been hidden away in some recess of his
playwrights and encouraging
tive with which he often punctuated hismind. For it was neither reflected in his
them to rewrite their works and
interactions with young theatre practi-lifestyle which was bohemian nor in his
also trained generations oftioners
actors.
who had to be shaken out of a pas-choice of books (he read very widely). It
sive acceptance of him as the great guru ifdid not show up in his conversation and
he was to understand what was going oncertainly not in the plays he chose to direct.
inside them; and, more importantly, toWe saw it only in his cultural nationalism
gauge the quality of their love for theatre.which expressed itself, till the mid-1980s,
Once a reaction was provoked, he listenedin his belligerence against Indian English
with full attention. He loved people, andtheatre. Otherwise, we must assume, the rss
loved contrary opinions because he loved towas like a security blanket. He had lost his
debate and argue. It was the stimulatingly parents early in life. Attending the rss
contrary ways in which playwrights fromshakhas in his native Bilaspur in Madhya
different cultures, times and spaces lookedPradesh must have provided an emotional
at people and their lives that must have centre to his life. But after the post-Godhra
impelled him to direct such an astoundingmassacre, he rejected the ideology outright.
variety of plays in Hindi, Marathi, Gujarati If Dubey did more plays in one year than
and finally in English. There was Sartre's Nomost other directors managed to do in five,
Exit (Hindi) and Dharmavir Bharati's Andhait was not always because the scripts came
Yug; Girish Karnad's Yayati (Hindi) andto him unbidden. He often sought out
Mohan Rakesh's raw modern classic Adheyoung playwrights and egged them on to
Adhure, Badal Sircar's Evam Indrajit (Hindi)write and rewrite. Playwrights occupied a
and Sitanshu Yashaschandra's Aa Manas central position in the theatre he believed
Madrasi Laage Chhe (Gujarati), Mahesh in, the theatre of words and ideas. In 1972,
Elkunchwar's Raktapushpa (Marathi) and he organised a 10-day playwriting work-
Bernard Shaw's Village Wooing (English). shop in Pune where 12 young playwrights
The plays he directed added up to over a read out their plays. The workshop was
100 in 50 years, each done with the same part of Dubey's Homi Bhabha Fellowship
passion, intensity and commitment to the project. The report he submitted at the
theatrical values he believed in. end of the fellowship period was typically
combative "I will not write a report for
Exposing the Hidden Truth you. I did this workshop at Pune. I wrote
Playwrights had a love-hate relationship the play Sambhog Se Sanyas Так and I
with Dubey. Although he loved and respec- made a film in this period which means
ted them for their mastery over their craft, your money was put to good use."
Shanta Gokhale 0 shantagokhale@gmail.com ) is
for their insights into human character, and The film he referred to was Shantata
a Mumbai-based theatre historian and critic.
their engagement with the comedy and Court Chalu Ahe in Marathi, based on the
32
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 1ШШ
play of the same name by Vijay Tendulkar. job, and Lagoo and he had done theirs, the same bemused expression again last
It was Govind Nihalani's first film as an which was to safeguard the integrity of the year, when the same people crowded the
independent cinematographer. Dubey lovedplay. Dubey was always clear about the terrace of the mig Club in Bandra for the
cinema. He had made two experimentalduties of the state and the individual. Insti- party that his close circle had organised to
short films, Aparìchay ke Vindhyachal in 1965 tutions like the censor board were required, celebrate his receiving the Padma Bhushan.
but so was individual action. It was the face-
and Tongue-in-Cheek in 1968 and he later What had kept people's love and admi-
off between the state and the individual that ration for him alive over 50 years was his
wrote dialogue for films made by Mahesh
Bhatt, Shyam Benegal and Govind Nihalani.interested him most in Anouilh's Antigone, continual concern for them and their work.
Sambhog Se Sanyas Так was a large-cast,which he directed for Naseeruddin Shah as If he was always surrounded by young
rollicking comedy of errors that every
recently as 2007 in a brilliant production. theatrewallahs, it was not only for the rig-
generation of actors that entered Dubey's orous training he had given them, but be-
Abundant Love
magnetic field got to act in. Thus Dubey's cause he did not grow old in all his 75 years.
one-line proposal for the project, "I will doP0SM990S, the circumstances of life had once did he betray that sure sign of
Never
something useful for theatre and film. If oldtoo
changed in Mumbai, and Dubey's health age - nostalgia for the past and senti-
mental glorification of plays he had done.
you want, you can give me the money",had begun to fail. But he continued to throw
was no empty swagger. The proposal alsohimself headlong into training actors.
His time was always the present, and he
reflected his relationship with money. Although stories abound of how he humil-
spent it looking forward to a creative future.
Looking back, one wonders whether it
Money was useful; funding would cer-iated them during workshops and rehears-
tainly help; but he was not going to fillals, believing that they would neverwas
give
the premonition of approaching death
forms and render accounts for the sake ofof their best unless their egos were broken
that made him so obsessive about filming
money. Dubey never applied for govern-down, his genuine concern for them always Ram Naam Satya Hai, based on Chan-
ment funding for this reason. His personalrestored the emotional balance. He was not drashekhar Phansalkar's play of the same
only respected but deeply loved by many. He name. Perhaps he saw this film, about a
expenses were taken care of by his small
family income; and his theatre expenseshimself was always bemused when he saw group of terminally ill men in a hospital
came partly out of his and his actors' pock-evidence of it. Sitting on a bench watching trying to grapple with the imminence of
ets and partly from friends who were do-old friends, fellow theatrewallahs, chelas death, as a way of confronting his own
ing well. Chief amongst them was Amrish(devotees) and admirers throng Horniman anxieties. He managed to shoot the film
Puri, the big baddie of Hindi films, whoCircle garden on the inaugural day of but not complete it. Before he knew it, he
Prithvi Theatre's stunning exhibition on him had that fatal stroke on September 2011
felt eternally indebted to Dubey for having
trained him as an actor. in 2008, mounted as a salute to him, he that ultimately took him away. But his un-
muttered, not once, but repeatedly, "Why do finished film is proof that his creativity
Theatre's Own Truth all these people love me so much?" He wore was alive and kicking till the end.
Dubey was totally free of cant. He never
claimed that he was serving the "cause" of
5th Doctoral Theses Conference
the atre. He was only doing what he enjoyed Organized by IBS Hyderabad (March 2-3, 2012)
doi ig. But in the process, he was establish- Call for Papers
ing a way of doing theatre that respected
About the Conference: IBS Hyderabad, a constituent of Icfai Foundation for Higher
nothing beyond its own truth. It was for
Education, a deemed to be University recognized as one among the top 7 B-schools
this reason that he fought tenaciously of India rated by the independent rating agencies is holding 5th Doctoral Theses
Conference during March 2-3, 2012 at IBS Hyderabad, India. In organizing this
against the censor board over Tendulkar's
conference series since 2007, we have collaborated in the past with IGIDR Mumbai
Gidhade (Vultures) which his group, Theatre
and The Indian Econometric Society (TIES). Earlier this conference series have
Unit, was producing. The board had called
attracted paper contributors from reputed foreign and Indian universities.
for the deletion of 150 words of abuse from
Areas of Interest: Papers are invited in the areas of Economics, Finance, Human
Resource Management, Operations Research, Marketing, Accounting, Insurance,
the play. Doing this, argued Shreeram Lagoo
Real-Estate and General Management.
who was to direct and act in it, would turn
Submission
the vultures of the play into sparrows. At Procedure and Dates: Interested Full-time/Part-time, research scholars
the end of several rounds of talks and in India and abroad who are working for their Ph.D., are requested to submit their
paper not exceeding 6000 words, latest by 17th February 2012. Abstracts not
much stalling by the censor board, its exceeding 200 words should also be submitted along with the papers. The papers
chairman saw a show of Gidhade and dis- can be emailed to: ibsthesis@gmail.com. All the papers will be reviewed for their
covered that what had appeared offensive suitability for presentation in the conference. Detailed guidelines for submission of
papers are available on our website http://www.ibshyderabad.org/DTC-V.htm.
on the page seemed perfectly acceptable Researchers of the selected papers will be invited to present their paper in the
on the stage. So the script was passed and conference. The selected papers for presentation in the conference will be published
Gidhade became a hit. either in conference volume or in our selected IUP journals for which concurrence
There was no declaration of triumph of the authors may be expressed in the registration form.
Conference Conveners
following this victory. Dubey believed that
Dr 1RS Sarma (Mob: 91-9948098104) Dr CS Shylajan (Mob: 91- 9440070524)
the censor board members had done their
Economic & Political weekly ЕШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 33
Punjab: Family Business
Manpret Singh Badal formed his own
party (ppp) after serving the present gov-
ernment as finance minister for four years,
alleging that Prakash Singh Badal's politics
DALJIT AMI is nothing more than about promoting his
son, Sukhbir Singh Badal. Now the ppp has
elite club of the Nehru/Gandhi and Abdul-nominated Manpreet Singh Badal's father
their candidates, the battle lines lah families, which have seen members ofas one of its candidates. In addition to rela-
With have their political been candidates,
have been drawn fordrawn parties the for nominating the battle upcom- lines
the upcom- successive generations heading the partytives, politicians have taken care of their
ing assembly elections in Punjab. Apart and government. favourite bureaucrats and officers too. sad
from the traditional political parties - Over time, the criticism from both within(Badal) has nominated the former director
the Shiromani Akali Dal (sad -Badal), the general of police P S Gill and former chief
and outside the party against Prakash Singh
Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress - a Badal for promoting his son has subsided as
secretary Darwara Singh Guru as its candi-
third front has emerged. This third front, or his main opponent, former chief minister,dates. They have used their official posi-
Sanjha Morcha, includes the newly formed and Congress' state president, Amrindertions for canvassing in their constituencies,
People's Party of Punjab (ppp), the sad Singh too has been promoting his family. Hiswhich was objected to by the state election
(Longowal) and the two communist parties. wife, Preneet Kaur, is a minister at the cen-commissioner before the election code of
This is the first assembly election after the tre, while both he and his son are contestingconduct came into force. Like the "obedient"
delimitation of constituencies which has these assembly elections on Congress tickets.bureaucracy, "loyal" businessmen too have
led to much confusion as well as interest in Most of the Akali leaders have got theirbeen nominated for party tickets.
the local political dynamics with mostnext scions into politics. Sukhdev Singh Constituencies too are getting fixed with
commentators expecting the anti-incum-Dhinsa has been nominated to the Rajya families. Lambi assembly constituency is
bency vote to get divided between theSabha after losing parliamentary elections,considered a family seat of the Badals, just
Congress and the Sanjha Morcha. (Thewhile his son Parmjit Singh Dhindsa is thelike Amethi "belongs" to the Gandhi family.
Bahujan Samaj Party has fielded candi-public works minister in the state govern-Other parties have also gone along with
dates from all the 117 constituencies.) ment. Similarly, Suijit Singh Barnala, Jagdevthis understanding as the ppp has nomi-
However, what is very stark, and disqui-Singh Talwandi, the late Gurcharan Singh
nated Gurdass Singh Badal from Lambi
eting about these elections, is the manner
Tohra, Basant Singh Khalsa, Kirpal Singhwhile the Congress has given its ticket to
in which candidates have been selected by
Khirnia and Prem Singh Chandumajra all gotMaheshinder Singh Badal, brother and
almost all the political parties. their kith and kin accommodated in legisla-close cousin respectively, of Prakash Singh
tures and ministries. They surrendered theirBadal. Similarly, the Patiala and Samana
Keeping It in the Family right to confront the patriarchs and decidedconstituencies are considered the constitu-
Punjab has a father-son duo working as theinstead to take a share in office. Similar isencies of the Amrinder Singh family.
chief minister and deputy chief minister.the situation within the Congress with
Sukhbir Singh Badal, as deputy of his fatherevery influential leader getting his or herClan Democracy
Prakash Singh Badal, is considered thefamily accommodated in positions of power. The situation in Punjab shows that a ruling
de facto chief minister of the state. He wasRajinder Kaur Bhatthal, the leader of the class clan is emerging which is tightly knit
sworn in twice to this post as he could notopposition in the state assembly got a ticketwith blood and social relations, loyalty, and
get elected to the assembly within the stipu-for her son-in-law, Members of Parliament business interests. The dominant and the
lated period of six months. His octogenarianPratap Singh Bajwa, Mohinder Singh
rebel, the ruler and the dissident, the bud-
father had already vacated the seat of party
Keypee, Shamsher Singh Düllo and Santoshding leader as well as the ignored aspirant
president for him. He was "см in waiting" Chaudary got tickets for their spouses, whileall seem to belong to this clan. However, it is
but the rebellion by his cousin, the then
Jagmit Singh Brar got his brother nominated.
good to remember that this informal alliance
Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal,Bhagwan Dass Arora's son, Harcharan Braťsof political parties, bureaucracy and busi-
forced the party to postpone the formal suc-
daughter-in-law and Beant Singh's grandson
ness people which is now morphing into a
cession. To counter the anti-incumbencygot tickets on "compassionate grounds". tightly-knit clan, is an India wide pheno-
factor against Sukhbir and the emergence of Interestingly, this promotion of the family
menon. Punjab is, perhaps, only an extreme
the ppp as a recognisable force, sad (Badal)is not confined to close relations alone, as
example of this trend. The question we
has decided to again project the senior Badalpoliticians have chosen even distant rela-
need to ask is whether this is a democracy
as the chief ministerial candidate. Thus, thetives over rank and file party workers. or an oligarchy in the making? Do the
expected transition from father to son hasAmrinder Singh has nominated his relativevoters have any choice?
been prolonged beyond expectation. ThisArvind Khanna, while Prakash Singh Badal
means that the Badals have to wait some has accommodated his daughter-in-law's
Daljit Ami (daljitami@gmail.com) is a freelance
more time before gaining admission to the
brother along with his son-in-law. journalist based in Punjab.
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ШВ5Я Economic & Political WEEKLY
A Citizen of the World But that is, if one has the potential to be
so moulded.
In 1984, when I had the conversation
JYOTI PUNWANI
about revenge with him, Engineer had
travelled abroad only a few times, mainly
to spread his reformist Bohra movement.
Engineer's persona would include There had been two important trips
A quick the Engineer'thesfollowing
followingtitles:summing persona titles: up would of Bohra Asghar include refor- Ali
Bohra refor- A Living Faith: My Quest for Peace, Harmony and though, unconnected with the movement,
mist; Islamic scholar; moderate with a Social Change - An Autobiography of Asghar Ali both in 1983. The first was to Egypt on the
Engineer {New Delhi: Orient BlackSwan), 2011;
capital m; interpreter of Islam as a liberal, invitation of a Palestinian group. Here, the
pp345,Rs525.
progressive religion; man of peace; and attack by orthodox Bohras had left him
amazingly simple. temporarily blinded. Later the same year,
One of my indelible images of Engineer 1984 violence, I accepted it as the final he went to the Soviet Union as a govern-
is of him walking down the narrow road word on the subject. ment invitee to speak on religion and phi-
from his quaint old building in a Mumbai There was one more reason for respect- losophy. There, he expounded his view on
suburb holding his little daughter Seema's ing his opinion. By then, Engineer had religion as a set of core values, espoused
hand. The other is of him seated in his study, been attacked physically by the orthodox by all religions in varying degrees. Such a
surrounded by books and newspapers. Dawoodi Bohras a number of times, for view of religion helped make it "a resource
There is one more - a recollection of questioning the dictatorial rule of their for justice, peace and equality", he told the
what he told me over the phone just after high priest, Syedna Mohammed Burha- conference, rather than an opiate of the
the May 1984 Bhiwandi riots. As a reporter nuddin. Indeed, as cpdr members, we had people as his hosts believed. So the
with The Sunday Observer ; I had covered also been stoned when we demonstrated potential already existed - even before his
them extensively, and was full of rage with Engineer against the Syedna oppo- interactions with religious scholars across
at the way the police had sided with the site his headquarters Badri Mahal. But the world had begun in full swing.
Shiv Sena. Eid was round the corner, and Engineer had been almost blinded in an In those days, we all thought Engineer,
young Muslims were filled with thoughts attack on him in Egypt just a year earlier. whose Marxist orientation is well known,
of revenge. It is time they retaliated, I told This was apart from having had to face was at heart an atheist. But, already un-
Engineer. He was then vice-president of the consequences of the social boycott popular among ordinary Muslims for fight-
the Mumbai-based human rights body, the imposed on him by the Syedna's establishing the Syedna's iron hand, he could hardly
Committee for the Protection of Demo- ment, and having to live with the knowl- declare his atheism when trying to preach
cratic Rights (cpdr), I was the secretary. edge that his sociable mother had been reform and Hindu-Muslim peace, to the
"That would be the biggest mistake", ostracised for his beliefs (Engineer rarely larger Muslim community. So he spoke
spoke of this; it is revealed in his auto- instead of solutions within Islam.
Engineer replied. "Revenge can never be
the answer. Not only would they be biography). If there was one person who Whether that was true or not, we never
outnumbered, but the cycle of violence should have believed in revenge, it was dared ask him. But over the years it became
would never end." "But there's no way they Asghar Ali Engineer. more and more apparent that Engineer did
Engineer's autobiography underlines indeed believe in Islam as a liberation theo-
can get justice from this government", I
persisted. Engineer did not agree. "We all my images of him. It also explains logy, finding within its framework solutions
have to keep trying", he said. them. A man who has attended inter- to vexing problems relating to women's
national seminar after seminar (indeed, rights, and the Hindu-Muslim relationship,
Wide-ranging Scholarship sometimes while reading the book, you specially the use of terms such as kafir. For
The cpdr connection was not the only wonder if his life was lived in conference many of us working on these issues, Engi-
reason I could have such a conversation halls), sharing the dais with scholars of neer's vocal support for the Shah Bano
with Engineer. As a reporter interested in religion from across the world, cannot judgment as being totally in keeping with
covering communal issues, I frequently but have a tolerant, all-encompassing Islamic values, and his assertion that in
interviewed him. His obvious scholarship world view. Wherever he travelled, the Islam, there is no place for compulsion in
not just of Islam but also of Indian manner in which different faiths coexist- religious beliefs, have become an invaluable
history and his holistic explanations of ed, as well as the relationship between source to counter both orthodox Muslims
contemporary developments, had made religion and the State, interested him. as well as those rabidly anti-Muslim.
me think of him as a guru on matters Such experiences cannot but mould one The combination of Islamic scholarship
into becoming a citizen of the world, and a humanistic interpretation of his faith
dealing with Hindu-Muslim relations.
Hence, though his admonition against even while one remains a member of a worked on at least two occasions recounted
revenge did not assuage my feelings of minority within a minority, both often in the autobiography, to make Islam a
frustration at the obvious injustice of the persecuted beyond belief. "resource for peace, justice and equality".
Economic Reforms and Growth in India
Essays from Economic and Political Weekly
Edited by
PULAPRE BALAKRISHNAN
This volume investigates the nature of economic growth in India, its pace over time, its relationship to changes in the policy regime
and the role of the external sector, and uses data to evaluate the policies that have implicitly underpinned the changes.
Presenting a range of approaches, views and conclusions, this collection comprises papers published in the Economic and Political
Weekly between the late 1990s and 2008 that are marked by an empirical awareness necessary for an understanding of a growth
history. The articles reflect a certain groundedness in their approach in that they privilege content/context over methodology.
Economic Reforms and Growth in India is thematically divided into five sections. While section one provides an overview of the subject,
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• Pranab Bardhan
Readings on the Economy, Polity and Society

This series is being published as part of a University Grants Commission project to promote teaching and research in the social
sciences in India. The project (2010-12) is being jointly executed by the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, and the Economic
and Political Weekly. The series is meant to introduce university students and research scholars to important research that has been
published in EPW in specific areas. The readers draw on the EPW's archive of published articles.
The titles - in economics, politics, sociology and the environment - reflect EPW's strengths as well as the interests of the academic
community. Each set of readings is compiled by a senior academic who has also written an introductory essay for the volume.
Forthcoming titles
Village Society, ed. Surinder Jodhka • Environment, Technology and Development, ed. Rohan d'Souza
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Orient Blackswan Pvt Ltd

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Lucknow Patna Chandigarh Hyderabad
36 January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Q33 Economic & Political weekly
ÊEEEÊ BOOK REVIEW
- wisdom. Allah's names in the Quranfor them. At the heart of these views lay the
One was the case of Amina Lawal, the
Nigerian woman condemned to death were
by Adii, Mohsin, Rahman and Hakim. idea that aids was contracted through sex
"If we were to consider Amina's case in thewith prostitutes or homosexuals.
stoning by a shariah court. Cheated by her
light of these values, would it be in the in- This ignorance was dispelled, but there
cousin who had promised marriage, the
divorced Amina had got pregnant and
terest of justice, compassion and wisdom remained the prickly issues of selling con-
to stone her to death? She was innocent
filed a complaint of rape against her cous- doms, using zakat money, and dealing with
be cheated by the man. While the man those who had indeed got aids through
in], Of course, the charge could notand
of gone scot-free, she, a helpless woman, "sinful" sex. Again, it was through argu-
próved. Instead, in the manner typicalhad
shariah courts, her own complaint be- had been trapped", argued Engineer. ments from the Quran, the Prophet's own
came proof of her adultery. Unable to answer his argument, the ule- life as well as prominent Islamic jurists
The case became a cause celebre, and ma actually ended up agreeing to sign a that Engineer could win over the ulema.
communique
Engineer was invited in 2003 to speak at a appealing for Amina's release! (That an Egyptian theologian supported
seminar in Nigeria on "Shariah Penal Amina
and was later released after a court trial; him, who would otherwise have been con-
however, this change of heart in the ulema sidered only an Indian Muslim, helped
Family Law". He was the only non-Nigerian
in a seemingly open-and-shut case, was in enormously, Engineer acknowledges, again,
at the meet, which had panelists from the
Nigerian human rights commission, itself
its an extraordinary achievement. a trait typical of the man's humility.) Inter-
legal world as well as traditional ulema Engineer's second success in changing estingly, while most Indian ulema cry
from across the country. firmly held orthodox views came in 2007 in hoarse against family planning, Engineer
The ulema were firm that Amina's South Africa, where Islamic scholars had points out (as he did to the ulema in South
act deserved the punishment prescribedbeen called to discuss hiv/aids. Muslim vic- Africa), that the Prophet had allowed an
tims of aids too spoke at the seminar. The Arab trader to praftise coitus interruptus.
under the shariah - till Engineer came up
with a counter-view. He cited to them themajority opinion among the theologians was Why then can't Muslims use contracep-
four fundamental values of the Quran,that aids victims were being punished for tives as a modern version of this?
their sins, that condoms should not be sold
which were also four of Allah's 99 names. Another interesting dialogue Engineer
These were Adi - justice, Ihsan - benevo-to them, Muslim doctors should not treat recounts is with Ayatollahs in Tehran
lence, Rahmah - compassion and Hikmahthem and zakat money should not be used about pluralism. Coexistence with other
Eighth 4-Week Refresher Course in Public Economics

for the South Asian Region
ŇIPFP proposes to organize a four-week refresher training programme in Public Economics for the
South Asian Region, for the period from May 14, 2012 to June 8, 2012. The participants would be
College or university teachers, faculty In research institutions, normally under 45 years of age. Preference
would be given to teachers teaching Public Economics/Public Finance. The teachers who have attended
the programme in the past need not apply.
The programme would be organized at the Institute premises. Participants would be reimbursed ll-AC
tfain fares. All local hospitality would be provided by the Institute.
Ihterested candidates may send their CV to the following address by March 15, 2012.
paveen Bhalla
Senior Administrative Officer
National Institute of Public Finance & Policy
118/2, Satsang Vihar Marg
Special Institutional Area (Near JNU)
l^jlew Delhi - 110 067
E-mail: bhalla® nipfp.org. in Tel: 011-26569303 Fax: 011-26852548
Economic & Political WEEKLY
BOOK REVIEW EEEEEEEEEE EÊEE^
faiths and then

was to suggest improvements in thanks tosaid
acceptable, scholar Niyaz Fatehpuri's
the pro- Ay
but not pluralism,
Haj services. vocative
because book Man-o-Yazdan , and a friend
that
the validity of
Neither that, nor other
his frequent stays in who challenged faiths.
him to read Marx before En
argued that this
Jordan as the king's personal guest, how- was an
dismissing communism. "un-Q
statement" ever, hasas
changed Engineer.
the Again andQuran The rebellion against
clearly the Bohra s
all again in his autobiography,
Prophets have he comesbeenpriesthood defined
sent Engineer's life,
by but A
they all across as a simple man
bring truthoften short of the autobiography fails to
from shed light on
Him. W
Ayatollah money
persisted
and woollens in foreign lands; buy- why
thatthe reformist movement
the has stag-
follo
other Prophets had
ing small gifts for his daughter, and long- nated. Could one of the reasons be the
distorted thei
nal teachings, Engineer
ing for Indian food, a longing not mitigat- submission by retorted
all political leaders, as
Quran ed even
says by the feast on the Saudi
that thoughmonarch recorded inwe
the autobiography,
may from dif
should leave it to Allah to decide who is Abdullah's royal table. Indeed, says Engi- the powerful and arrogant Indira Gandhi
neer, he may not even enter paradise if
right and who wrong. To that, the Ayatol- to the progressive V P Singh to the
lah had no answer. Indian food is not available there! Syedna's influence?
Ironically, while Indian ulema kept a What is interesting is that Engineer Reading his account of his own life, it
safe distance from Engineer for many started off as a total conformist, nick- becomes obvious that the values Engineer
named "mullah" for his conservative views. has always stood for - foremost among
years, partly because of the Syedna's pow-
His father, interestingly, though a Bohra them understanding and harmony be-
er, partly because of Engineer's radically
amil (priest), was not so conservative, tween Hindus and Muslims - come not
different interpretation of Islam (that
instilling in him a love for books, teaching only from his scholarship, but from a
he did not convert his Hindu daughter-
in-law was another black mark against
him Arabic and Islamic history, at the genuine belief in religion as a "force that
same time discussing religion with a
him), he has spent the last two decades in unites humanity". His interpretation of
the company of ulema from across the
brahmin priest, and ensuring his son did kafir (unbeliever) as one who lives selfish-
world who have heard him and been con- not follow him into slavery to the Bohra ly, and a mumin (believer) as one who
vinced by him. Enthralled by all things high priest. As a teenager, Engineer re- refuses to compromise and is compassion-
Saudi, Indian ulema might be interested belled instinctively against the humiliat- ate, needs to reach all Indians.
to know that Engineer was invited by ing practice of prostrating oneself in front
Saudi Arabia's minister of Haj to perform of the Syedna, but his questioning of Jyoti Punwani (jyoti.punwani@gmail.com ) is a
the pilgrimage as the government's guest, orthodox Islam began later, in college, freelance journalist based in Mumbai.
3^ JANUARY 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 СШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
Assadi says ("Path of Development and
Farmers in a Quagmire: Politics in Karnataka") that the response of
the Karnataka government to the crisis has
The Wages of Unconcern been to resort to (1) politics of concessions,
(2) politics of commissions, (3) politics of
denial, and (4) politics of selectivity for
DHANMANJIRI SATHE "package" concessions. However, this is true
of all the other state governments as also
Agrarian Crisis and Farmer Suicides edited by the central government.
ral sector in India has seen two R S Deshpande and Saroj Arora (New Delhi: E Revathi and Shaik Galab ("Economic
Sage Publications), 2010; pp 436, Rs 895.
Since ral major sector
major the processesprocesses
early in 1990s, India - one -has wasone
the agricultu-
was the seenthe
much- twomuch- Reforms and Regional Disparities") bring
hyped process of globalisation and second out the steep decrease in the rate of growth
was the largely neglected process of stag-
the high interest bearing non-institutional
of public investment in agriculture in the
1990s and the fall in public expenditure
credit has increased, unleashing a vicious
nation of production, productivity and in-
comes. Both have affected the farmers incircle. R S Deshpande and Khalil Shah directed towards the rural areas as a percent-
important ways. in their paper "Globalisation, Agrarian
age of gross domestic product. This has
Crisis and Farmers Suicides: Illusion and
Generally speaking, the exploited classes been one of the major reasons for the stag-
Reality" take the argument further bynation of agriculture. G Sreedhar ("The
have different ways of revolting against
looking at the raison d'etre, nature andDrought-prone Anantapur District of Andhra
the system. While farmers' revolts and
movements have been quite common process
in of indebtedness. They feel that itPradesh") traces the root cause of the
would be difficult for the cooperative sec- crisis to macro-level policies at the national
India since the 19th century, a new form of
resistance - the suicides of farmers - hastor to emerge as an important player dueand state levels, including the opening up of
to the credit discipline and directions ofthe economy which has led to the reduc-
evolved in India in the post-liberalisation
the apex bank.
period. The book under review is the out- tion in import duties of some of the products.
come of a national-level workshop on theAnother extremely important issue that Neelima Deshmukh looks at the experi-
same issue organised by the Centre for they raise is in the context of establishing a ence of the cotton growing farmers of
link between the process of globalisationVidarbha, Maharashtra ("Cotton Growers:
Rural Studies, Lai Bahadur Shastri Nation-
al Academy of Administration, Mussoorie. and
It farmers' distress. If such a kind of Experience from Vidarbha") which has
conclusive link is to be established, one one of the worst records with respect to
deals with the issues related to the agrarian
would need commodity-wise data on a suicides. She identifies various kinds of
crisis and farmer suicides in a most compre-
hensive way. sub-national level. Since this kind of reliable reasons like spurious inputs, failure of
data is not available and since many other weather, lacklustre performance of the
Suicide: A Part of Multiple Crisischanges are also occurring in the econo- Maharashtra Cotton Federation, bias of the
of it becomes difficult to establish a link government towards the cloth producer
There are many discourses on the issuemy,
farmer suicides and one amongst them between the two, though they state that instead of the cotton grower which have
the externalities related to globalisationbeen responsible for the farmers' distress.
tries to locate the suicides as part of multi-
have contributed to the deepening of the One important observation that she makes,
ple crisis and A R Vasavi, in her paper,
crisis. M S Sidhu, on the other hand, in his albeit in passing, is that the farmers do
"Contextualising the Agrarian Suicides"
"Globalisation vis-á-vis Agrarian Crisis in better when growers and processors have
explores this angle. She blames the triple
India" clearly says that holding globalisa- been integrated as in the case of sugar.
crises, that of the economic, the social
and the ecological that mark the agrariantion responsible for the crisis is a myth and Meeta Rajivlochan and M Rajivlochan
situation in India for the woeful situation
the roots lie mainly within the economy. make a spirited attempt on a case for em-
of the farmer. She has also focused on the powering the farmers in their paper "Pro-
Locating Root Causes
fragmentation of social life in a village, viding a Level Playing Field for the Small
It is clear that the farmer suicides can be
which has left the farmer painfully isol- Farmer" and argue that globalisation does
situated within the parameters of globali- not mean withdrawal of government -
ated but has not really decreased his
social obligations. sation, commercialisation and stagnation rather it is important that government
of agriculture, which explain the fact that continues to provide extension services,
Taking a cue from the fact that most of
the suicides have occurred in the more
the suicides are committed by the small/ improve marketing infrastructure and
advanced states of Andhra Pradesh, Maha-better the health services. They also raise
marginal farmers, D Narasimha Reddy and
rashtra, Karnataka and the Punjab and not the issue of farmers' agency and say that
Srijit Mishra in "Economic Reforms, Small
in the BiMARU states. The poorest of the poorthe government does not seem to be inter-
Farmer Economy and Agrarian Crisis"
may not commit suicides, while all those ex- ested in asking the farmer what he wants.
find the main culprit to be the indebted-
ness of the farmers. They argue that periencing
as the revolution of "rising aspira-The book is well rounded as it has a chap-
the state has withdrawn in the post- tions" become the most vulnerable. From ater on the behavioural and social issues
vantage point of political economy, Muzaffartoo. However, one lacunae that seems to
liberalisation period, the dependency on
Economic & Political weekly ЕШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 39
be there is that while the affected states of bringing together at one place mostof farmers
of inthethe Marathi newspapers
have been studied separately; there is no scholars working in this area. The authors
show (and, most likely, this must be true of
chapter/s on interstate comparison. Such other regions too),
have already written extensively on this is- there is no going back
an exercise may come up with some inter- sue and here, in a way, they further sharpen
to subsistence agriculture for him. He him-
esting insights. their arguments. Thus, it benefitsselfus by
and his fellow villagers have experi-
The editors put forth a very robust enced improvements in the standard of
giving a very incisive look into the issues.
"Introduction" and balance it with "The For an economy like India, stagnation
living by making this shift. However, it is a
Way Forward" at the end. However, theof agriculture is not good in itself (with or
combination of many factors at a particular
ideological underpinnings of the editors dowithout globalisation). The earliertime that makes him take this extreme
epi-
not become clear. They say that it is diffi-sode of agricultural intervention occurred
step. The uniqueness of this situation does
cult to reverse the process of globalisation in the mid-1960s under similar condi-
not give the farmers a "critical minimum"
and so to criticise its effect would be a tions. One hopes for the sake of the farmer
with which to have a widespread agitation
futile exercise (p 410). However, the waythat there would be an analogous onkind
the lines of say, the price-related agita-
forward that one is envisaging would beof waking up in the policy circles, proba-
tions in the 1980s. Farmer suicides do not
inherently affected by one's ideologicalbly not for his sake (as it legitimately
point to demand for a complete shift in the
position and as Karl Polyani has shownshould be) but at least for the sake of rest
development paradigm but they seem to
one could certainly aim at affecting theof the economy. be asking for the end of neglect and more
"speed of change" if not the direction. Meanwhile, the unviable farmer cuts a
of accommodative policies on the part of
the State.
lonely picture and resorts to a remedy
Conclusions
taken up by lonely people - he commits
It could be argued that the booksuicide.
does The irony of the situation is that
Dhanmanjiri Sathe ( dhan.sathe@gmailcom )
not come up with anything fundamentally
he believes in the ideology of commercial-
teaches at the Department of Economics,
isation and as the reports and interviews
new. However, the book has the advantage University of Pune, Pune.
R for Econometrics r is a Unix type object oriented language

that is interpreted and not compiled
unlike Gauss. This means that the r
commands are implemented as they are
NEERAJ HATEKAR
typed. As far as numerical accuracy goes,
r is believed to be one of the most numer-
Hands-on Intermediate Econometrics Using R: ically accurate packages available, r is

ing the free and open source soft- Templates for Extending Dozens of Practical available for a wide variety of Unix-based
Examples by Hrishikesh D Vinod (World Scientific),
This ware ing bookwarether rtofreeeconometrics.
to is one econometrics.
The pro- and of open the first source on The apply- soft- pro- platforms like Windows and Mac systems.
hardcover, ppxxvii +512,$ 94.
hibitively high price of econometric and r is an open source software, meaning that
statistical software has been a major hin- every line of the code is available for any
drance to the spread of econometrics edu- from time series analysis are Shumway and researcher to see, modify, etc. Users with
cation in India. Lack of access to quality Stoffer (2005), Cowpertwait and Metcalfe sufficient exposure can actually modify any
software hinders students from learning (2009), Pfaff (2008); for wavelet methods, existing r application to suit their own
applications of econometric techniques. Nason (2006); and for Bayesian methods purposes. For those users who may prefer
Even when several open source softwares Albert (2008). However, this book is quite a clickety click approach to econometrics
did exist (Gretle, EasyReg to name a few), different from all the above in important similar to that provided by existing soft-
it was that r supplied the need for a fast, respects. For one, the range of topics ware, r offers a command-driven package
reliable, flexible and accurate programming discussed is very broad and marked by called Rcmdr. r also allows users to use a
language. The only major problem with sophistication of a leading econometrician. very wide range of libraries developed by
easy adoption of r in classrooms and Second though theoretical proofs are users. These libraries often contain data
research has been the lack of an accessible not always formally derived, the author sets that are accessible to r users to prac-
manual for econometric applications. This expertly brings to the reader the theoreti- tice on their own. In addition, r has excel-
gap is also being rapidly filled. The book cal insights that are relevant for applica- lent graphical abilities, allowing users to
under review was a pioneering attempt tions. Third, the book has several snip- generate high quality graphical displays.
which was followed by an excellent book pets that the reader can simply copy from
by Kleiber and Zeileis (2009) which, in the accompanying cd rom and paste into Free Software
turn, was followed by a textbook aimed at r in order to get a good feel of how r r is very easy to download; it can be ob-
undergraduate students by Hatekar (2010). works. Indeed, my students at the masters' tained from the site http://www.r-project.
Specialised textbooks have also been level have greatly enjoyed learning from org. Anybody with an internet connection
available for some time now. Some examples this book.
can get a free copy of r on as many
40 ^
^ JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 СВЯ
computers as they may wish. In that way, density and regression estimation and es- derivations at every place. Consequently,
R has the potential for empowering re- timating the "amorphous partíais", or the results are not always derived in detail as
searchers even when they cannot afford constant regression coefficients in a non- is usual for a textbook. Indeed, it would be
the often fantastically priced proprietary parametric regression. Chapter 9 deals a mistake to regard this book as a text-
software. This is all the more relevant in with computational methods like single, book in econometrics. This should be evi-
countries like India where several academic double and maximum entropy bootstrap- dent from the very title of the book. Yet, it
institutions face resource problems. The ping and the associated inference. Chap- is a very high quality mix of theory and
limitation on empirical research due to ter 10 deals with generalised least squares, applications with r. For teaching purpos-
lack of funds is effectively eliminated by r, VARMA and estimating functions while the es, the book will surely have to be supple-
provided a computer and power to run last chapter deals with Box-Cox, Loess and mented with other books on the theory of
that computer are available, r is also a great projection pursuit regression. specific topics. Intermediate to advance
tool for students who no longer have to All chapters have detailed r code, course in economics as well as profession-
dread pirating software simply in order to which is also available as snippets sup- als who are looking for sophisticated tool
practise their regressions at home. The only plied on a cd Rom that is available with boxes, find this book invaluable.
barrier could be lack of good reference the textbook. The user can extend and
material on r. Books such as the one under modify these snippets to suit her purpose.
Neeraj Hatekar (¡ neeraj.hatekar@gmail.com ) is
review are also rapidly addressing that issue. The snippets can simply be copied and
at the Centre for Computational Social Scienc-
es and Department of Economics, University of
The current book begins with a chapter pasted in r so that the reader has a first-
Mumbai, Mumbai.
illustrating the relevance of non-linear hand experience of how r works. The
functions of regression coefficients. In this range of topics that Vinod discusses, their
REFERENCES
chapter, some recent tools like Cook's dis- sophistication and the ready availability
Albert Jim
tance are introduced in addition to multiple of snippets is what sets this book apart (New York:
regression methods, Chapters 2 and 3 deal from other textbooks that are about appli-Cowpertwai
tory Time S
with standard time series techniques. From cations of r to econometrics. Hatekar, N
univariate arima models to bivariate time Introduction
This book is about applications of r to
Kleiber, С a
series analysis including stochastic diffu- intermediate to advanced econometrics. with R (New
sion and cointegration. Chapter 5 deals with The focus is on intuitive explanation of Nason, G P (
R (New York
var modelling. These chapters can be the techniques and applications in r. Pfaff, В (200
supplemented by books like Cowpertwait Vinod illustrates many results bringing to Time Series
Shumway, R
and Metcalfe (2009) and Shumway and the reader substantial insight into the and Its App
Stoffer (2005) for a full- fledged course on theory, rather than emphasise the formal Springer).
time series analysis using r.

Utility theory has important applications SARDAR PATEL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH
in economics and finance and Chapter 4 is THALTEJ ROAD, AHMEDABAD-380054, GUJARAT
on utility theory and its empirical implica-
www.spiesr.ac.in
tions. This chapter includes useful r snip-
pets for income inequality measures and Invites application for the following positions:
plots as well as general purpose r snippets
for computing dominance measures, includ- 1 . Professor, Associate Professor and Assistant Professor from individuals with
ing new tools for measuring up to fourth competence in Economics and having an impressive publication record. The
order stochastic dominance.
Institute's current interests include Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Macroeconomics and sectoral growth, Industrial Economics, Poverty and Employment
Chapter 6 involves simultaneous equa- studies, Education and health sectors, International Trade, Economic Reforms
tions including k-class estimators, limited and Regional Economy with special focus on Gujarat. Persons with proficiency
information maximum likelihood, identifica- in Quantitative Economics or Econometrics and other strong credentials will also
be considered. The minimum qualifications required will be as per UGC norms.
tion problem, etc, with hands on examples.
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Chapter 7 examines the less familiar glm
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ter 8 deals with sophisticated consumer
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optimisation and also non-parametric Kernel
Economic & Political weekly ES3S9 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 41
A 'Normal' Anomaly:
others for its economic progress as one of
the fastest developing states of India.
Displacement due to
The Bjp-led state government also
holds that those who live in relief colonies
Communal Violence in Gujarat

that house victims of the violence do so of
their own volition.4 The Modi government
also appointed a commission in 2009 to
inquire into changes in the demographic
SANJEEVINI BADIGAR pattern of Gujarat since independence
from the colonial rule to identify reasons
The fleeing
"nrihings of
behind the "polarisation" lak
hav
and "migration"
from I Gujarat
their to counter unscientificfor
of populationhomes con-
JL sections
clusions made by the media.5 While ac- o
during the 2002 v
cians and
knowledging the fact thatactiv
after the vio-
their asserts
subsequent the
lence many Muslims have had to move out st
"resettlement
ruling Bharati
of their previous colo
places of residence, the
placesis so,
of bjpaccordin
spokesperson contended that this was
Muslim
counts of
nothing new but a part of thethe
migration
has been termed m
that has always
copy".1 happened within cities.
Increas
state and displace
media, some
Vaniyas for instance, he points out, moved
rights organisatio
even the head
away from Jamalpur in eastern Ahmedabad
nary have ur because of the influx of Muslims and
revisits the event
from the
frequent disturbances inviole
the area.6 This
examine the
2002 when more than a thousand Mus-
disp
article thus seeks to examine the question
migration questio
lims lost their lives, and to participate inof whether the population movement of
from Hannah
the economic progress facilitated by theMuslims was displacement orAre
migration.
administration of Chief Minister NarendraI have used ethnographic data based on
that displacement
Modi. Modi was in power at the time interviews with displaced persons, acade-
larger question
of the violence and continues to be the
of
micians, journalists, non-governmental or-
the rights
elected chief minister to date. of
ganisation min
(ngo) functionaries and state
majoritarian imp
In the tribal-dominated district of Pan- functionaries; newspaper reports; court
chmahal where at least three incidents of cases and the significant body of inde*
examines the pr
mass murders took place in Pandharwada, pendent and media reportage that the
Prevention of Com
Kidiad and Dailol in addition to arson, events of Gujarat in 2002 generated.
Targeted
looting and stabbings an ageing MuslimViolence
Justice and
farmer now goes to his field everyday like Routine Displacement
Repar
in this his village that was also The bjp spokesperson's contention of
he always did inlight.
affected during the violence in 2002. He forced migration having happened before
however balks at the suggestion of staying is not without basis. Interviews with some
the night in his now destroyed and burnt citizens of Ahmedabad who have witnessed
house in the village. He would rather com- several incidents of communal and caste
mute daily to his field from the relief colonyviolence such as those in 1969, 1974, 1985,
built near a Muslim seminary in the nearby 1986, 1990, 1992 and 2002 revealed that
town of Lunawada. More than seven yearsnot just large-scale communal violence
after the violence, he cannot think of stay-but the forced migration that it induces
ing the night in his village because, as hehave precedents in Gujarat. Noorjahan
says with fear in his eyes, dar lagta hai na Kalumiyan Sheikh lived till 2002 in Asarwa
ben (I get frightened, sister).3 The existence Kadiye ki Chali in Chamanpura, a working
of relief colonies in the periphery of cities, class neighbourhood in Ahmedabad where
towns and villages and the fear that one dalits and Muslims lived side by side and
sometimes encounters among Muslims inwhere she paid a minuscule amount of
quotidian situations are the only remind-rent under the old tenancy laws. She says
Sanjeevini Badigar
ers of the violence that rocked the state in that the atmosphere in 1969 was as(san
tense as
com) is a PhD scholar at
2002 that is otherwise lauded by itself and in 2002. According to her account, during
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Q2S3 Economic & Political weekly
= INSIGHT
the 1969 riots 20 to 25 Muslims were everyone

set got together, the Muslims.Disturbed
For Areas Act, 1986. The Act however
on fire alive and women were raped inhow was a
thelong will we stay on rent, they wanted belated response to processes that
to know and went to their own houses".8
house next door where a family of Pathans had already taken place and did little to
During the 1990s, when Advani's rath
used to live. Noorjahan's family returned change the reality especially in communally-
after two to three years but hers wasyatra
the from Somnath to Ayodhya sparked sensitive areas in the old city and working
violent
only Muslim family to do so. According to riots in various places, middle class
class areas of Ahmedabad where the fre-
quency of communal violence had almost
Muslim houses were targeted by the Vishwa
her they could continue to live there because
become
Hindu Parishad (vhp) (Shani 2007: 175).
they lived just like Hindus. Humara vyayhaar A commonplace.
Muslim lecturer in one of the prominent
apne Hindu jaise hi tha rehne pehanne
2002 - Most Unusual 'Dhamaal'
mein (our behaviour and attire was colleges
like in Ahmedabad recollected how
that of the Hindus).7 After the riots in after Despite its history of communal violence,
1969 they found a note stuck on the door
some Muslims moved out of the places which
that said "Muslims, leave this place"
according to many, the year 2002 witnessed
( amaro vistar chodine do) she and the
were the sites of violence (Shani 2007: 124). her most unusual dhamaal (riot). Even
The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporationbrother
had had to leave their house and having
stay lived in a communally-sensitive area
like
with friends and relatives for a few days
at that time allotted temporary accommo- inDariyapur for several years before
dation in plots to the mainly Muslim1990 moving to Naroda Patiya, Abdul Majid Abdul
riot during the rath yatra. Their parents
stayed back in their home. In two days Salaam
victims rendered homeless in Bapunagar, even will not brook any comparison
between
her parents moved out of their house in
a working class area in the eastern indus- an what happened in 2002, and the
trial belt which was then a mixed residen- small riots that break out every now and
up-market locality. Their decision proved
tial area where both Hindus and Muslims then in parts of the old city and working
timely as their house was eventually burned
lived (ibid: 123). and their possessions looted. When class
theyneighbourhood localities, "Don't bring
returned after a few days they were
However, in 1985 when the riots broke the name of Dariyapur in this at all... This
shocked
out against reservation and finally took a thing that happened, in Patiya where I
to find some of their possessions
communal turn, Bapunagar becameinthe stayed for seven-eight years.... such a riot
their neighbour's houses. For this family
site of pitched battles. Some Muslims of lecturers and ngo practitioners thathas
hadhappened, and Allah knows, talking
there were rendered homeless again until much about it is not a good thing... all
and then chosen not to live in overcrowded
had to take shelter in camps. The 1985areas
riot of concentration of their own com-
wrong things happened."10 Residents who
munity but among their associates inlive
partitioned Bapunagar into distinct Hindu thecheek by jowl in overcrowded parts of
and Muslim areas with a "border" in more old city areas of Ahmedabad and Baroda
bet- serviced part of the city, the attack
attest to the fact that "these little things
on their home in 1990 deeply etched their
ween. During that time of vulnerability
especially for women who are not distinctness
only as minorities and created keep on happening, it is nothing much.
butAfter the attack they had to move out People who understand don't do it; people
targeted during communal violencefear.
also perceived as bearers of culture by and
theirstay in a rented accommodation be- who don't understand do it" (ibid). Even in
own community, mass marriages were fore finally moving out of the area.9 the communally-sensitive town of Godhra
Although pockets of Muslim concentra- where riots happen every now and then, a
conducted in the camp itself for unmarried
whoalways existed, as did those of other businessman who suffered major losses said,
girls. Heeding the advice of people tion
go and religions, especially in Ahmeda- "Now in every hour, two hours it happens,
castes
cautioned her mother, "Where will you
bad, with each passing riot more and more 0 riots ) but a dhamaal like this we have
taking your four daughters?" Shehnajba-
no Aslam Ali Sheikh and her sisterMuslims
got moved to places of Muslim con- never seen".11
married in Aman Chowk camp where centration
they in search of more security. The Unless one is in the line of fire, there was
state's response was at best only for those no need to move residence. Zakia, a prom-
were taking shelter. She recalls that then,
obtrusively
as in 2002, mobs had used gas cylinders to displaced and rendered desti- inent ngo practitioner from Ahmedabad
inin rahat chavni camps and that too who eventually migrated to New Delhi
tute
blow up walls of houses and that a girl
after the 2002 violence recalls that her
her neighbourhood had been raped.with She"assistance" or rahat ("relief") whose
intended purpose was as its name indi- father had tried to give her and her siblings
managed to survive at that time by fleeing
cates to only provide some relief for those a cosmopolitan upbringing by moving to
her house barefoot and with nothing
dispossessed and displaced but not to better and more serviced parts of the city
except for the clothes she was wearing.
compensate for the loss of house, belongings as his earning ability improved. It was dif-
"The people in the mohalla (neighbour-
hood) saamna kiya (faced them) but and
theyeven livelihood. Another measure by the ferent for her grandmother who lived in
sup- for the growing segregation of living Kalupur. Moving back into her house after
were with tear gas, policewale were state
spaces into Hindu and Muslim localities was it had been ransacked more than twice
porting them then what can we do". After
to prohibit the sale of property between due to communal riots was a part of life
staying for about a year in the camp even
Hindus and Muslims through the Gujarat that she did not imagine there would be
after it had closed down, they eventually
Prohibition of Transfer of Immovable an alternative to. Her grandmother lived
did return to their house in Bapunagar
which had burned to the ground in 1987. Property and Provisions for Protection of on the border in Kalupur and so her house
"We used to get scared", she says, "but Tenants
then from Eviction from Premises in was burned down and looted whenever
there was a major communal conflagra- were victims of sexual violence during thethe displaced continued to stay in them.
tion in the area. After the violence in 1969, 2002 carnage.19 Many of these had only a tent for a shade.26
she kept her valuables packed and ready By May end when the government wanted
in potlis (sacks made by tying together the Displacement or Migration? to close down the camps, out of the approxi-
ends of a large piece of cloth) to move By 27 March 2002 nearly 1,00,000 personsmately 70,000 displaced in camps, a repor-
when needed.12 "Earlier they used to only were compelled to seek refuge among rel-ted 101 families of 14,000 people had left.
burn Muslim shops", says Imtiaz Pathan's atives or friends in "safe" areas of Muslim This means that 20% had returned home,
mother who has seen rioting on more than concentration or in 101 relief camps. Twoout of which some returned to the camps
one occasion around Gulbarg Society. It weeks later the number went up to 1,50,000when violence broke out in their locality.27
was the site of a major carnage in 2002 in 104 relief camps20 set up entirely by theIn the same month the camps that were get-
where 69 people lost their lives and where members of their own community with someting ration supplies from the government
she sustained major burns and injuries aid from ngos. The government aid startedreceived inadequate supplies or none at all.
herself and lost her husband along with 10 coming in a week later. Most such campsAlthough in some camps, due to aid from
members of her family.13 went on for up to five months, only a few upngos, camp organisers could continue to
A Muslim journalist explained, "Earlier, to a year in Ahmedabad while one went onkeep them afloat, by the end of June accord-
we would hear that a riot has taken place in for up to three years.21 In Ahmedabad, at theing to official estimates "80% inmates" had
one place but we were still eating and doing end of March in 2002 itself, after a few daysleft the camps and "some 15,433 inmates re-
our thing at our own houses. Even if there of no untoward incidents being reportedmained in 15 camps" mosdy in Ahmedabad
was a riot in one place you could run out of and some signs of the return of "normalcy",(Government of Gujarat reply to the pro-
some galli (lane) and escape to another but some among the displaced from camps inceedings of NHRC of 31 May: 17). However,
2002 was different."14 Even Sarfarazbhai Ahmedabad did go to check on their shops.independent reportage held that there were
Munshi a rickshaw driver who lived in When an angry mob surrounded them, they 27 camps in Ahmedabad in June.28
Chamanpura, Ahmedabad and has wit-had to run for their lives again.22 In parts of "Tomam buraiyan (major sins) had broken
nessed at least two to three riots echoes Sabarkantha and Vadodara, the administra-out in the camp",29 says a leader of one of
what seems to be a common refrain about tion took some initiatives to help Muslims the Muslim relief organisations, riled at the
2002, Aisa toofan humne kabhi nahi dekha return because of which some of them fact that strict social norms of propriety
(We have never seen a storm like this).15 could do so.23 However after a lull, violence
and boundaries were a far cry in the jostle
broke out again in parts of Ahmedabadfor space and in the urgency of meeting
Scale of Violence
from 21 April and went on till the end ofbasic needs for the survival of thousands
The fire in a train compartment where
the59
month. Parts of Vadodara, Kheda, Kaira
of people dispossessed by the violence in
kar sevaks died on 27 February 2002andin
Mehsana districts also saw violence. camps. This is why, besides obvious
the Muslim-dominated town of Godhra Fresh violence pushed at least 4,700 people humanitarian reasons, organisations like
produced violent communal clashes fromback to the camps.24 his were eager to try out various solutions to
27 February and mid-June 2002. It affected The administration was eager for people enable those displaced to leave the camps.
15 to 16 districts and was most intense in thein camps to go back to their homes and However many in camps could only see a
districts of Ahmedabad, Anand, Mehsana,camp leaders even tried to help some of chance of getting on with their lives if
Sabarkantha, Panchmahal, Vadodara,those who were displaced to return to their they settled in areas of Muslim concentra-
Bharuch and Dahod. For at least 15 dayshomes. However, they returned every time tion. Even after incidents of violence had
though it seemed endless to the victims,in greater numbers either due to fresh vio- ebbed by June, there was widespread fear
mobs armed with swords, trishuls (a spearlence or rumours.25 In Sabarkantha district among the Muslim community and a con-
forked at the blade into three parts, also aaccording to one estimate 24,000 Muslim tinuing anger against them for the burn-
trident associated with god Shiva) andvillagers from 207 villages who fled because ing of the coach of Sabarmati Express.
agricultural implements roamed the streetsof arson and attack refused to return home. For many of those who had fled in the
of Gujarat with impunity16 causing by con- While the poor lived in 10 registered camps wake of the violence what was once their
servative official estimates 1,169 deaths and other unregistered ones, those who home had now become an unsafe, marked
and injuring 2,50017 of which a majoritycould afford it lived with their relatives in place that had not only been destroyed and
were Muslim and an estimated 254 Hindus. six villages or on rent in the periphery of had to be rebuilt but whose vulnerability to
To this was added the figure of 223 miss-towns with sizeable Muslim population such danger continued to exist. Before accept-
ing persons who were not found for sevenas Modassa, Idar and Himmatnagar. Even ing assistance for rebuilding their houses
years and therefore declared dead. Thein early May parts of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, if it came their way either through the
violence had left an estimated 2,548Jamnagar, Ankleshwar and Viramgam saw government, faith-based organisations or
injured, 919 women widowed and 606 incidents of communal violence. ngos, a predicament that had to be resolved
children orphaned. Unofficial figures how- Thus despite a great scaling down of was whether they would return to their mool
ever place the death toll much higher andviolence and the stifling heat in summers, vatan (original place of residence) at all.
not less than 2,ooo.18 According to oneby May there were still 50-odd camps in Returning home, for a large number of those
estimate, at the very least, 300-400 womenAhmedabad alone and a large number ofdisplaced would be like returning to the site
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 E33S3 Economic & Political weekly
or the theatre of violence when at one time, was rejected by the state government.31 (1992-93) among others have occurred in
all existing and known mechanisms of Pointing to the lack of basic amenities likethe past. What is distinctive of the 2002
assistance and protection failed to deliver. potable water, sanitation, electricity orviolence is that perhaps due to normative
Although that moment of violence seemed ration cards in the colonies and to the developments internationally, more than
to have passed, the actors and the site re- ever before rights language was used to
government's responsibility to provide for
mained the same. The situation seemed these displaced, the ncm suggested that
articulate the plight of the displaced. Within
even more intractable for the women who a larger policy should be formulated10
todays after the violence broke out human
had been sexually assaulted or who had rights activists from within and outside
address the plight of those displaced due
to communal violence.32 It was onlythe
witnessed family members or friends being in state, at the national and international
sexually assaulted. In most cases they level, women's groups, psychiatrists and
response to the report of the ncm that five
continued to remain in relief camps till journalists, political parties and even a
years after the violence the Gujarat govern-
relief colonies were built for them by delegation of parliamentarians sent inde-
ment conducted a survey to find initially
Muslim organisations. pendent fact-finding teams to assess the
81 and subsequently 86 such relief colonies
scattered in 11 districts.
In fact during the time of the violence situation. This resulted in a significant
itself, areas of Muslim concentration on amount of media and independent report-
'Resettlement Colonies'
the periphery of cities and towns especially age on the carnage. Not satisfied by the
in north and central Gujarat, such as
While the state government referred togovernment's "perfunctory" report
Gujarat
which asserted the restoration of normalcy
these constructions as resettlement colonies,
Bombay Hotel and Juhapura in Ahmedabad,
it argued that those who lived inwhile
Tandalja in Vadodara, 100 Feet Road and the commission continued to receive
these
letters and complaints of human rights
"resettlement colonies" did so voluntarily.33
Ismail Nagar in Anand were in high demand
for Muslims who were looking for a safe violations,
It also questioned the legality of these con- the National Human Rights
structions and whether they actually Commission
place to move to. This of course led to the housed (nhrc) chairperson led a team
that visited Gujarat from 19-22 March 2002
riot victims. The government's argument,
shooting up of real estate prices in these
to assess
with respect to the lack of the availability
places. It also led to a lot of illegal develop- of the situation. In its preliminary
ment. Builders offered plots of land in in- civic amenities was that it was commensu- report it held that "most of all, the recent
rate to the areas in which they are located events have resulted in the violation of
stalments, that in many cases they did not
have papers for, so that people could begin and
to not specific to the "resettlement colo- fundamental rights to life, liberty, equality
nies" (Government of Gujarat 2006). Im-
live there by paying Rs 500 or more a month. and the dignity of citizens of India as
Some among those in camps, however,
portantly, the state government has avoided guaranteed in the Constitution".34
could not even afford that and in a bid toall mention of the term displacement, In May 2003, the nhrc took suo moto
preferring instead to call it migration.
resolve the situation as quickly as possible, cognisance of inadequate rehabilitation of
in May,30 NGOs among the Muslim com-The un Guiding Principles on Internally victims of violence and commissioned a
Displaced Persons (idps) describes idps as: preliminary study on the rehabilitation of
munity began to look for land to construct
colonies of very basic houses. These werepersons or groups of persons who have been victims based on the un Guiding Principles
to be in places of Muslim concentration inforced or obliged to flee or to leave their on Internally Displaced Persons. The status
homes or places of habitual residence, in report was taken note of by a member
the periphery of the cities and villages and
particular as a result of or in order to avoid
where land was cheaply available. Thethe effects of armed conflict, situations of of the Planning Commission annexed
goal was to give those who had fled theirgeneralised violence, violations of human and quoted in affidavits filed before the
homes a roof over their head as soon as rights or natural or human-made disasters, Supreme Court in various matters pending
possible. Most of these houses constructed and who have not crossed an internationally before it related to the violence in 2002 in
recognised state border. Gujarat.35 Since 2005 an ngo called Antarik
in relief colonies without proper sanita-
tion and other basic facilities turned out to The fact of being forced to flee is therefore Visthapit Hak Rakshak Samiti (Committee
be little more than a roof over the head. a defining factor of idps. The element of for the Protection of the Rights of Internally
This forced migration however did notcoercion is tangible in what the violence left Displaced Persons) along with other ngos
receive any significant official mention behind systematically attacked and targeted has also been organising and agitating for
until acting on a complaint by the head ofMuslim homes, relief camps that at one time the rights of these people using un Guiding
an NGO called Citizen's Justice Initiative and sheltered more than one and a half lakhPrinciples on idps.
Janvikas, the National Commission forMuslims, increased movement to areas of While the category of idps articulates
Minorities (ncm), visited 17 relief colonies Muslim concentration and the existence the rights of displaced persons, this un
in four districts in 2006. It recommended of relief colonies that continue to house coined category with its international lens
that displaced Muslims be given the status those displaced by the violence. (ostensibly to avoid roadblocks of national
of Internally Displaced Persons and a fair It is striking to note that not just in sovereignty in a world of sovereign nation
monetary compensation (ncm 2006). The Gujarat, but in other parts of India, instances states) emphasises humanitarian aspects
ncm even suggested that a relief packageof displacement due to communal violence of dealing with the issue of displacement.
be formulated on par with those affected such as in the anti-Sikh riots (1984), Liisa Malkki, among others, points out
by the 2001 earthquake in the state which Bhagalpur riots (1989), or the Bombay riots that the overtly humanitarian emphasis
Economic & Political weekly QS3 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 45
depoliticises the issue of displacement deal with communal violence. The bill wasthe displaced. It retained provisions for
(Malkki 1995: 495-523). For Hannah Arendt, first introduced as the Communal Violence
the setting up of special courts to try
however, displacement was indicative of (Prevention, Control and Rehabilitation of
offences under this law and provided for
larger structural problems in the modern mechanisms to deliver relief and rehabili-
Victims) Bill, 2005 and later rechristened
nation state. She described the displaced tation for victims of violence. It also sets
the Communal Violence (Suppression) Act,
as "the most symptomatic group in con- 2005 and again as the Communal andup guidelines for assessment of compensa-
temporary politics" in the Europe of her Sectarian Violence Bill, 2010 to its latest
tion for losses suffered by individuals in-
times where despite the existence of con- avatar "Prevention of Communal and Tar-cluding loss of life, home, belongings, loss
stitutional structures millions of people of livelihood, assessing compensation for
geted Violence (Access to Justice and Rep-
from minority groups were displaced and arations) Bill, 2011". It is an indication of
injuries, impact of sexual assault or abuse
genocide took place. The danger of con- the gradual weighing up of some of the on women. There are other important
stitutional structures becoming irrele- larger issues that dealing with communalhighlights in the final version prepared by
vant in the face of the "will of the nation" violence entails that has thus far been the nac called "Prevention of Communal
is one that she saw inherent in the struc- seen primarily as a law and order problemand Targeted Violence (Access to Justice
ture of the nation state from the very to the negligence of the effects of commu-and Reparations) Bill, 2011". These are: the
beginning. Importantly, she also asserted nal violence that result in displacement
creation of a National Authority for Com-
that history could very well repeat itself if and gross human rights violations. munal Harmony, Justice and Reparation
people conclude "quite democratically - Far from generating optimism academics, to take charge in the event of major com-
namely by majority decision - that for jurists and human rights activists decriedmunal violence; the creation of mecha-
humanity as a whole it would be better to the earlier version of the bill initiallynisms to determine and disburse compen-
liquidate certain parts thereof" (Arendt for its vague phraseology and the fact thatsation and importantly the incorporation
1973: 275, 277, 299). Subsequently the it made it lawful for the state to take alland reference to those displaced by com-
refugee regime has sought to provide for necessary measures once an area is dec-munal violence. The provision enabling
the rights of those who: lared a communally disturbed area. Asthe central government to take over the
owing to well-founded fear of being persecut- most of the provisions pertaining to pre-
powers of the state government in a situa-
ed for reasons of race, religion, nationality, vention and control of communal violencetion of major communal violence by the
membership of a particular social group or
already existed and did not prevent eitherinsertion of a clause empowering the cen-
political opinion, is outside the country of his
nationality and is unable, or owing to such the repeated occurrence of incidents of
tral government to invoke Article 355 by
fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protec- communal violence of human rights viola-declaring a particular instance of commu-
tion of that country; or who, not having a na- nal clash as "internal disturbance" was
tions earlier, the purported intent of the
tionality and being outside the country of his
former habitual residence as a result of such bill to further empower officials in a riotdue to criticism from the bjp, Trinamool
events, is unable or, owing to such fear is un-
situation met with much criticism. In its Congress and some state governments.
willing to return to it (Convention Relating to earlier version the bill actually strength- The draft bill has been expressly criti-
the Status of Refugees, Geneva, 28 July 1951). 36 ened the power of the State but did notcised for a number of provisions that could
Due to the post-war context in which the establish accountability of state actorsprove to be very problematic. Its definition
refugee regime developed the displace- who can play a crucial role in controllingof "communal and targeted violence" as
ment of people across national boundaries communal violence.37 an act that "destroys the secular fabric of
as refugees received more analytical visi- Since 2010 after the bill went to the the nation" has been found wanting. This
bility than the displacement that occurs National Advisory Council (nac), due to definition is central to the bill, and all
within nation states for similar reasons. At concerns raised by civil society groups, its offences and rights of victims to justice and
the heart of this is the larger issue of guar- nomenclature was changed to Communal reparation would ensue only if the action
anteeing the availability of the most fun- and Sectarian Violence Bill, 2010 to widen warrants description as a communal and
damental rights such as the right to life to the scope. Although the nac retained the targeted violence as per this vague defini-
minorities against majoritarian excesses. structure of the earlier bill of creating new tion. It also empowers the proposed Na-
This especially requires consideration crimes and offences and creating account- tional Authority for Prevention of Commu-
in the context of the Indian subcontinent ability for public officials. Also, although nal Violence to enter any building or place
where the frequency of communal vio- due to the intervention of civil society for inquiry and investigation of subject
lence has led to the development of the groups and activists there was a shift from matters under its concern and to even
notion of communal violence as endemic empowerment to accountability of offi- seize or make copies of such documents.
to India (Brass 2003: 6). cials, there was a need to develop the The creation of a new bureaucratic set-up
rights of victims of communal violence has rightly received much criticism.
The Communal Violence Bill
such as those of internally displaced per- It has been criticised by the bjp
In the light of the developments in
sons with regard to relief, reparation, for being anti-majority. Its emphasis on
Gujarat, the United Progressive Alliance
rehabilitation and resettlement. minority communities to the exclusion of
(upa) government at the centre had high-The revised version sought to increase majority communities has been rejected
lighted the need for a comprehensive law accountability
to and address the rights of by people of other political persuasions as
40
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Е325Э Economic & Political weekly
well. The term "group", which, as per the employed to articulate the plight ofreturn to their original homes and continued to
live in tents till houses were constructed for them
draft proposes to cover "religious or Muslims displaced by the violence, its by Muslim organisations and Janvikas, an NGO
linguistic minority" in any state does not overtly humanitarian emphasis can depo- based in Ahmedabad.
22 Times of India, 31 March 2002.
include a member of the majority commu- liticise the larger structural questions that
23 Times of India, 13 April 2002.
nity and therefore according to the bjp, is the issue of displacement is tied to. These
24 The Indian Express, 26 April 2002.
problematic and must be deleted. The questions include the guarantee of basic
25 Times of India, 30 April 2002.
26 Supreme Court Writ Petition No 530/2002: 33.
bjp's principal criticism of the bill is that it rights of minorities against majoritarian
27 Times of India, 21 May 2002.
privileges minorities and does not address displays of power. The proposed Commu-
28 Supreme Court Writ Petition No 530/2002: 33.
situations when the minority community 29 Interview
nal Violence (Suppression) Act provides with Afzal Menon, Gujarat Sarvajanik
Seva Mandai, Ahmedabad, 11 December 2008.
is an aggressor in a communal conflict. a window of opportunity, if availed, 30
toTimes of India, 28 May 2002.
The nač however argues that the provi- strengthen India's democracy. 31 The Indian Express, 24 October 2006.
32 The Indian Express, 18 October 2006.
sions are informed by the understanding
33 The Indian Express, 27 January 2007.
that while existing laws already provide notes 34 National Human Rights Commission (2002):
for justice in case a person from a majority 1 Intervie Suo motu Case No 1150/6/2001-2002 dated
Gujarat, 31/5/2002. para 64. A
community is harmed, this bill's intent is 2 Maulana Vastanvťs comments as Vice Chancellor 35 Centre for Social Justice and Anhad (2007): The
to ensure that minority communities get of Darul Uloom Deoband's created an uproar that Uprooted: Caught between Existence and Denial, p 7.
forced him to step down, viewed on 28 March36 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees,
access to justice. Geneva, 28 July 1951, 189 UNTS 150 was ratified
2011 (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/
Although in the many riots since inde- 2on-oi-27/india/283677o8_i_maulana-vastanvi- by 124 states on 17 March 1995.
seminary-resignation-issue) . 37 Retired bureaucrats and police officers have testi-
pendence Muslim casualties have been fied of their experience in office that a riot cannot
3 Interview with Mohammad (from Anjanwa vil-
many times more than the Hindu ones lage), Relief Colony in Lunawada, Panchmahal go on for long without some political support
district, 18 September 2008. from somewhere (Harsh Mander quoted in The
(Varshney 2011)38 other communities such Hindu, viewed on 24 March 2011, www.hindu.
4 The Indian Express , 27 January 2007.
as the Kashmiri Pandits or Kukis in the com/2oio/o7/i4/stories/2oioo7i4642 81400.htm.)
5 The Indian Express, 4 July 2009.
Also erring police officers if suspended due to the
north-east have also been victims of dis- 6 Interview with Yamal Vyas, op cit.
occurrence of a riot are reinstated after public
crimination and have had to flee their 7 Interview with Noorjahan Kalumiyan Sheikh, fury subsides which in effect does not hold them
Siddiqabad Relief Colony, Ahmedabad, 27 Octo- accountable. See Vibhuti Narain Rai, Combating
homes due to conflict manifesting itself in ber 2008.
Communal Conflicts: Perception of Police Neutrali-
violence. However, given the bjp's con-8 Interview with Shehnajbano Aslam Ali Sheikh, ty during Hindu-Muslim Riots in India, Anamika
Arsh Relief Colony, Ahmedabad, 16 December
Prakashan, Allahabad, 1999, pp 127-28.
demnation of the bill being "anti-majority" 2008.
38 Ashutosh Varshney has expressly criticised the
and the misgivings of other state govern- 9 Interview with Zakia Jowher, Indian Social Insti-
Communal Violence Suppression Act arguing that
tute, New Delhi, 4 April 2009. a strengthened bureaucracy cannot guarantee the
ments including the upa ally Trinamool
10 Interview with Abdul Majid Abdul Salaam, Citizenprevention of communal violence and that in an
Congress, the bill which needs important Nagar, Relief Colony, 26 January 2009. India that now falls under the bracket of middle
11 Interview with Nuruddinbhai, Vadodara, 24 Feb- income countries riots would naturally decline.
amendments but offers a window of op- Gujarat 2002, he argues, is unlikely in the future
ruary 2009.
portunity to address a long-standing ques-12 Interview with Lecturer at College (identity with- and a new bureaucracy to prevent the same is
a mistake. While the creation of the National
held), 7 January 2009.
tion is unlikely to see the light of day soon. Authority has been rightly criticised other incidents
13 Interview with Imtiaz Khan Shahid Khan's mother,
of displacement since Gujarat 2002 such as that of
Juhapura, 12 July 2008.
Conclusions Christians in Kandhamal, Orissa and dalits dis-
14 Interview with Ayesha Pathan, Indian Express
placed in Mirchpur, Haryana give credence to the
Office, Ahmedabad, 13 December 2008.
Till today thousands of Muslim families
15 Interview with Sarfarazbhai Munshi, Siddiqabad
concerns of supporters of the bill.
39 Interview with Ayesha Pathan, journalist, Indian
that fled their homes in the wake of Relief
the Colony, Juhapura, 30 November 2008.
Express, Ahmedabad, 13 December 2008.
violence in 2002 have not returned to 16 "Crimes against Humanity: An Inquiry into the
Carnage in Gujarat (2002)", "Concerned Citizens
their homes in urban and rural areas. Tribunal Report", Vol 1 (Anil Dharker for Citizens
REFERENCES
for Justice and Peace), p 19.
They have tried to set up houses in places Arendt, Ha
17 Figure reported to the Rajya Sabha by the Union
of Muslim concentration or have been Minister of State for Home Affairs Sriprakash (New York:
Jaiswal in May 2005 in reponse to a question by Brass, Paul
given houses in relief colonies set up Riots in Co
an unnamed MP. The Indian Express, 3 September
primarily by Muslim organisations. Whether 2007 and http://news.bbc.co.Uk/2/hi/south_asia/ University
4536199. stm (viewed on 11 May 2005). Government
this population movement was what
18 Human Rights Watch, "We Have No Orders to reply to the
human rights activists call displacement, Save You", State Participation and Complicity in in letter N
Communal Violence in Gujarat, April 2002, Vol 14, 30/06/2002
or migration, as the Government of Gujarat
No з(С), http://www. hrw.org/legacy/reports/ - (2006) : St
claims it to be is best answered by a Muslim 2002/india/ (viewed on 12 May 2010). Gujarat wit
visit on 15/
journalist whose family had to move out19 The Citizen's Committee for Extraordinary Report
on Gujarat (May 2003): "Submissions to the 18-A.1, Soc
of their home of 17 years in Vadodara in CEDAW Committee for Seeking Intervention on tariat Gand
the midst of the 2002 violence. "Just Gender-based Crimes and the Gendered Impact of Malkki, Liisa
the Gujarat Carnage" cited in India: Five years on Studies to t
because we had the means" she said, "it - the bitter and uphill struggle for justice in Review of A
doesn't mean that we had a choice".39 Gujarat, Amnesty International, www.amnesty. National Com
org/en/library/asset/ASA2o/oo7/2oo7 (viewed on India (2006)
Displacement due to communal violence, 30 March 2011). sion of Min
however, is not without precedent in
20 Times of India, 27 March 2002 and Frontline 19, (New Delhi
No 8, 13-26 April 2002. Shani, Ornit
Gujarat and other parts of the country.
21 In a camp in Modassa in Sabarkantha district, for Nationalism
While the category of idps has been aptly up to three years displaced Muslims refused to Cambridge U
Economic & Political weekly ЕЕШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 47
Growth in India's States in the First Decade
of the 21st Century: Four Facts
UTSAV KUMAR, ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN
1 Introduction and Literature Review

This paper is the first
performance across In
during the first decade of this millennium (2001-09, here-
period also marked by
Posting during after
afterthethea"noughties")
the growth, India
"noughties")
seems to ,have
firstputdecade of income India of this per seems millennium capita to have of 6.1% (2001-09, put per even annum here- more
even more
report four key
distance from its "Hindu" growth past - a reference to the anaemic findi
that the decade
growth seen from Independence in 1947 to the late 1970s. The was t
growth rate of income per capita almost tripled from 1.5% during
macroeconomic perf
1951-81 to 4.2% during 1981-2009.1' 2 Within the latter period, growth
almost all major state
accelerated from 2.8% in the 1980s to 4.2% in the 1990s and then
1993-2001.
surged to 6.1% in the noughties. India now has threeSecond,
decades of n
phenomenon
respectable growth performance behind it, a point that is often of diver
states: onobscured by the near-universal
average tendency to equate India's growth the
turnaround with the policy turnaround that occurred in 1991.
2001-09. Third, durin
Despite this performance and despite starting ahead of China
states with the
in the late 1970s in terms of per capita gdp (measured in purchas- highe
largest deceleration.
ing power parity terms), India's per capita gdp was still only half S
the most that of Chinaopen,
in 2009. China's gdp per capita grew almost twice it see
as fast as India's (8.2% versus 4%) between 1979 and 2009.
dynamism and vulner
India's growth performance, especially across the states within
demographic
the country, since the take-off in the late i970s/early 1980s has dividen
economic dynamism
been the subject of considerable research interest, including by
little Ahluwalia
evidence (2 000), Besley and Burgess (2004), DeLong (2004), that th
Williamson and Zagha (2002), Rodrik and Subramanian (2005),
Demography alone can
Kochhar et al (2006), Aghion et al (2008), Amin and Mattoo
economic(2008), Panagariya (2008), growth.
Ghani (2010), Kumar (2010), Aiyar
and Mody (2011). Different authors emphasise different aspects
of growth performance.
DeLong (2004) and Rodrik and Subramanian (2005) emphasise
the fact that growth took off a decade before policy reforms were
seriously initiated in 1991; Amin and Mattoo (2008) stress the role
of human capital and institutions in explaining services sector
performance. Besley and Burgess (2004) argue that differential
labour market regulation was a driver of interstate growth per-
formance.3 Aghion et al (2008) find that the effects of delicensing
were unequal across states - industries in states with employer-
friendly labour regulations grew faster than those in states with
pro-worker labour regulations. Kumar (2010) and Aiyar and Mody
(2011) highlight the role of demographic change in explaining the
differential performance of states while Kochhar et al (2006) draw
attention to the initial conditions and diversification achieved in
manufacturing in explaining interstate differentials. Ghani (2010)
Utsav focuses on the dynamism of the(
Kumar service sector. Lahiri andkumarutsav@
Yi (2009)
Arvind Subramanian
compare the economic performance of two states - Maharashtra ( asub
Institute for International E
and West Bengal - and provide evidence that suggests a worsen-
Global Development, Wash
ing of business climate in West Bengal between i960 and 1993.
48 JANUARY 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ШШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
But all these papers cover the period until 2000. This paper, to Table 1 : Net State Domestic Product Per Capita Growth Rate» in States (%)
State 1993-2001 2001-09 1993-2009 2001-07 2007-09
the best of our knowledge, represents the first attempt to com-
pare growth performance across states during the most recent Main states
decade, the first of this millennium. We present below some key Andhra Pradesh
stylised facts about interstate growth performance and establish Assam
their robustness with supporting evidence. In particular we Bihar
establish four facts which are then discussed in detail in Section 2. Chhattisgarh
Delhi
(a) Growth in the main states, except three, increased in 2001-09
Gujarat
compared to 1993-2001.
(b) Despite the strong performance of the hitherto laggard
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
states, we do not find any convergence across states. On the
Jammuand Kashmir
contrary, we find that divergence in the growth performance
Jharkhand
across states continues.
Karnataka
(c) States with the highest growth in the pre-crisis years, 2001-07, Kerala
suffered the largest deceleration during the crisis years Madhya Pradesh
(2008 and 2009). Maharashtra
(d) For the period 2001-09 we do not find any positive effect of Qrissa
the so-called demographic dividend, namely, that the Punjab
growth in the share of the working-age group in total popu- Rajasthan
lation boosts growth of per capita income. Tamil Nadu

Uttar Pradesh 1.31 3.88 2.59 3.64 4.58
2 Growth in the 2000s: Stylised Facts Uttarakhand
West Bengal 5.04 5.00 5.02 4.78 5.67

Using data on the 21 largest Indian states, we summarise growth
Average growth of main states 2.79 5.82 4.31 5.92 5.52
patterns across the states during the period 1993-2009. During Other states
the period under study, three new states were carved out of three A&N Islands 1.10 8.15 4.62 8.59 6.83
existing states in 2000. These are Jharkhand (out of Bihar), Arunachal Pradesh
Chhattisgarh (out of Madhya Pradesh) and Uttarakhand (out of Chandigarh
Uttar Pradesh). State-level domestic product data for the new Goa
states prior to 2000 is available only till 1993. The choice of the Meghalaya 4.22 3.01 3.61 2.97 3.13
time period under study in this paper is therefore dictated by the Pondicherry
availability of data. In those instances when we take the analysis Sikkim
further back than 1993, we use data for the old (and larger) states. Tripura
Average growth of all states

Source: CSO and authors' calculations.
Stylised Fact 1: Growth Increased in Most States
Chart 1 plots the income per capita growth rate for the 21 largest "nineties") and during 2001 and 2009 (o
states for two time periods - between 1993 and 2001 (on the hori- chart shows that all the states, with th
zontal axis, this period will hereafter also be referred to as the Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal,
line, i e, their growth in the 2000s w
Chart 1: Average Growth of Not State Domestic Product Per Capita (NSDPpc)
(in %, 1993-2001 and 2001-09)
than in the 1990s. Indeed, average grow
doubled from 2.8% in the 1990s to 5.8
shows the growth rate in the 21 states
2009 and the sub-periods. The larges
posted by Uttarakhand (7.0 percenta
(5.8 percentage points) and Chhattisgar
with Gujarat, Orissa and Bihar not far
vides a clue both to the long-standing su
West Bengal and its unseating in the 20
was one of the strongest performers in
the few states whose growth remained
while others surged.4
Stylised Fact 2: Divergence across St

Straight line is a 45 degree line.
A remarkable feature of the growth p
AP-Andhra Pradesh, AS-Assam, BH-Bihar, CT-Chhattisgarh, DL-Delhi, GJ-Gujarat,
2000S was the strong performance of th
HP-Himachal Pradesh, HY-Haryana,JD-Jharkhand,JK-Jammu & Kashmir, KK-Karnataka, KL-Kerala,
MH-Maharashtra, MP-Madhya Pradesh, OR-Orissa, PJ-Punjab, RJ-Rajasthan, TN-Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Uttara
UK-Uttarakhand, UP-Uttar Pradesh, WB-West Bengal.
Source: CSO and authors' calculations. the highest improvements between 20
SPECIAL ARTICLE =
Chart 2: Growth during 2001-09 and Incorna in 2001 Chart 3: Growth during 1993-2009 and Incorna In 1993
6
! .UK ^ •«*
I I ,AP
g 8
ЗГ 5
Ř
Ï
ÄT4I
8
OHY . -
i
5 'S
5 »OR #СЖ
»OR ÄT4I
#СЖ #TN i »OB
Í3 6 nfgü bM *7=f
% nfgü bM *7=f #KK ce
! 4
I #wb { •" ест

n 3
<
1 fMP
< #JK I
< •*
SP 01
I-
2
£ AS
2 - ^ 2 "T -
9 9.5 9.5
10 10 10.5
10.5 8.5 9
income Log Log
percapita of
in NSDPpc
of
2001 i
Line shown is the Line
fittedshown
plot is the
obtained fitte
by
during 2001-09 on during
the log 1993-2009
of NSDPpc on in th
20
Source: CSO and Source:
authors' CSO and
calculations.author
Table 2: Unconditional Convergence Regressions for Main States (1993-2009)

previous eight year period 1993-2001. So did the "gale winds
of divergence" noted by Rodrik and Subramanian (2005) and
2001-09 1993-2009 1993-2001 2001-09 1993-2009 1993-2001
Kochhar et al (2006) change direction and become forces for

convergence during the 2000s? Log of initial 1.69** 1.47*** 1.13** 2.02*** 1.60*** 1.07
income It
Chart 2 provides initial evidence on this question. perplots
capitathe
(0.75) (0.47) (0.47) (0.68) (0.46) (0.71)
Constant -10.94 -9.92** -8.13* -14.43* -11.18** -7.41
growth rate of the states for the period 2001-09 against the
income per capita in 2001. If there is convergence with the income
Observations
level of the richer states, the relationship should be downward

R-squared
sloping. But, as Chart 2 shows, richer statesStates
on average grew
Main Main Main Main Main Main
Robust standard errors in parentheses.
faster so that the inequality across states is actually increasing.
*, **, *** denotes statistical significance at 10%, 5%,
We find that far from changing directions the
Source:forces of diver-
Authors' calculations.
gence continue. The strong growth per-and

Table 3: Convergence Divergence (1971-2009)
formance of the laggard states should not
obscure the more general pattern that
Log of initial GDP per capita 2.910*** -0.669 -4.102* -8.613 -4.602 -0.773 -0.797
across the Indian states, we still do not see
the phenomenon of convergence,
Log whereby
of initial GDP per capita* 1.342 1.166 1.191 1.518 2.400** 2.099*
the poorer states, by virtue of
d иgrowing
m my for the 1980s
Log of
faster than the richer states, start initial GDP per capita* 1.878* 1.678 1.737 1.729 2.348** 2.215**
catching
dummy forthe 1990s
up with the latter s' level of income.
Log of initial GDP per capita* 2.691** 2.830** 3.101* 2.751*** 1.931*** 2.491**
What happens if we change the time
dummy forthe 2000s
period to 1993-2009 to see if there is con-
State FE No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
vergence over a longer periodTime

of time?
FE No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Chart 3 shows us the results. We find that Observations
states with a higher per capita income

Number ofgroups 18 18 18 18
No
in 1993 grew faster over the next of
16 years. instruments 9 8 14 11
In other words, we do not find any evi- Lag length
Collapsed instruments No No No No
dence of convergence over a shorter or a
Arellano-Bond test for AR(2)
longer period.
in first differences (p value) 0.76 0.17 0.11
We formally investigate the question of
Hansen test of joint validity
convergence and divergence in of
cross-state
instruments (p value) 0.16 0.09 0.30 0.40
Difference-in-Hansen
growth performance by estimating a standard tests '
All-system GMM instruments
growth convergence regression equation
using state -level data. In this framework,
(p value)
Those b
average annual growth rate of income
growthper only (p value) 0.80 0.94
capita over the period 2001-09 is regressed
Total effect for the 2000s:
on the logarithm of initial incomeLog of Initial GDP percapita+

per capita
(Log of Initial GDP percapita*
in 2001. Results from the estimation exercise
are shown in Table 2. Column 1 shows the
Dummy forthe 2000s)=0 (p value)
Robust standard err

* ** *** denotes sta
results for the period 2001-09. We find that
with the respective
the coefficient on the log of initial incomeSource: Authors' calculations.
5° JANUARY 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ЕЗШ Economic & Political WEEKLY
Chart 4A: Real Net State Domestic Product Per Capita (1 993-2009) (2004-05 prices) on the log of initial income per capita is positive
and statistically significant. If we repeat the esti-
mation for the period 1993-2001, we again find
that the coefficient on the log of initial income
per capita is positive and statistically significant
(column 3).
Note that the magnitude of divergence has also
increased in the noughties relative to the 1990s.
The convergence coefficient was 1.1% for the lat-
ter and 1.7 for the former, a difference of almost
55%. For two states, whose levels of per capita
income are different by 1 log point in 2009 such
as Haryana and Assam; the richer state, Haryana,
will grow faster on average by 1.7% per year. That
is a truly striking magnitude of difference.
Estimates shown in columns 1-3 are based on 21
states which include the newly formed states in
2000 as well. Since the new states were formed
Source: CSO and authors' calculations. only in 2000, a relevant question is: how do the
Chart 4B: Real Net State Domestic Product Per Capita (1993-2009) (2004-05 prices) above results change if the definition of the old
states were used for the post-2000 period? In other
words, the new states are considered together with
their respective parent state.5 This leaves us with
only 18 main states. We find that the initial income
per capita is positive and statistically significant
for 2001-09 (column 4) and 1993-2009 (column 5)
but is positive and insignificant for the period
1993-2001. Appendix Table 1 shows the results for
all the states. We find that broadly our results
continue to hold.
We also check if the divergence result that we
find in the 2000s is due to the time period chosen,
i e, 2001-09. We repeat the regression in Table 2
for growth during the period 2004-09. Results
from this regression are shown in Appendix
Table 2. We find that the coefficient on the log of
initial income in 2004 is even more positive for
Source: CSO and authors' calculations. comparable samples.
Chart 5: Growth before and during the Crisis Kochhar et al (2006) find that divergence
accelerated in the 1990s. In this paper, we present evidence that
Ш ®BH the pattern of divergence continued to intensify in the 2000s. We
és8 have already shown that, using cross-sectional unconditional
Il «GJ OMH convergence regressions, the pattern of states growing far apart
continued in the 2000s. Next we examine whether this pattern of
II6
divergence is a new phenomenon or holds over a longer period of

i§4
с ^ S+W ф|Г) time as well. To do so we construct a 10-year panel from 1971-2009
I с .Й ф|Г) #HP (the last time period is 2001-09) for 18 states (old states used
oì5 .
because there is no data for new states prior to 1993). We then

I
estimate unconditional convergence regressions using ols and
conditional convergence regressions using both ols and gmm.
О
0 2 4 6 8 10
Average Annual
ResultsGrowth of
from this estimation are shown in TableNSDPpc
3 (p 50). (
Straight line is a 45-degree line.
Source: CSO and authors' calculations. In column 1, we regress the average annual growth rate of
per capita is positive and statistically significant, indicating diver- income per capita on the log of initial income per capita at the
gence across states over the period 2001-09. This corroborates the beginning of each period without any state or time fixed effects
result shown in Chart 2. In column 2, we repeat the exercise for and find that the coefficient on the log of initial income per capita
growth over the period 1993-2009 and find that the coefficient is positive and statistically significant showing unconditional
Economic & Political weekly ЕП353 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3
Chart 6: Pre-crisis Growth and Change in Growth during the Crisis Years on the interaction of the log of initial income per capita with the
period dummies (columns 2 and 3) show that the interaction
• MP
term has a higher coefficient in each successive period implying
g #AS
£ 2
that the pattern of divergence has accelerated in each successive
decade, showing that richer states continue to grow faster.
•i о. - v #H^DL In columns 4 to 7, we report estimates obtained using differ-
IIo о.
ence GMM and system gmm approaches.6 The significance of
1i the coefficient on the log of income per capita varies with the
g,
îl2
estimation method used (Table 3 and Appendix Table 3, p 56).
I »HP
u
»AP^ Once again what we are most interested in is the coefficient on
the interaction of the log of income per capita for each succes-
•|
• KK
sive period and how it evolves over time. Except column 6, the
0 2 4 6 8 10
coefficient on the interaction of the log of initial income per capita
Average Annual Growth of
Straight line is fitted with the decadal dummies is the highest for the most recent
line ob
years on average growth duri
period (2001-09) showing that divergence gained further
Change in growth during cris
crisis years momentum in the 2000s.7'8 and
(2008 2009) m
Another way of looking at the divergence across states is to plot
Change in Growth during Crisis Years and Share of Manufacturing in NSDP the distribution of per capita income over time. Chart 4A (p 51)
Chart 7A
shows the distribution at different times during 1971-2009.
Chart 4B (p 51) shows the distribution without Delhi. The plot
•Mr
и *AS confirms that per capita incomes have increased in all states,
ra 9
including the laggard ones. See for example, Bihar (вн) whose
tf -UP «PJ ,HY per capita income is trending up but is still at the bottom of the
distribution. On the other hand states like Delhi (dl), Haryana
H 0 (hy) and Maharashtra (мн) continue to be at the top of the
о 2 -dU In income distribution. This conforms to the divergent nature of
CÖ #0R
о e 2 hp ®мн growth during 2000s. Punjab (pj) which was among the top
a rp states in 1991 was overtaken by other states during 1991-2009.
-4
Stylised Fact 3: Faster Growing and More Globalised

•KK
5 10 15 20 States Took a Bigger Hit during the Crisis

Share of manufacturing
Since the major policy turnaround in 1991, Indian economy has
Chart 7B
become increasingly integrated with the global markets through
the trade and the finance channels. India's trade-to-GDP ratio, a
•Mr
measure of trade openness, increased from 20% in 1993 to 45%
I <L> #AS
<L> 2
in 2007 (World Development Indicators). The ratio of foreign
assets and liabilities to gdp, a measure of financial integration
|| *hv with the global economy, increased from 43% in 1993-94 to 85%
II • - in 2007-08 (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti 2007). The crisis of 2008-10
О S
highlighted the vulnerability that is the flip side of the dynamism
II .2
that globalisation has engendered: growth declined in, and capi-
Г *HP .UK ,AP tal fled from, India, as in most other countries, albeit to a lesser
-4
extent. But the question remained as to which states were more
dependent on foreign markets and hence more susceptible to a
5 . 10 15 20 25 30 downturn as conditions abroad faltered.
Share of manufacturing + business service
Line shown is the fitted plot obtained by regress
Average growth across the main states slowed down from
average manufacturing and business services sha
5.92% (Table 1) during the pre-crisis years (2001-07) to 5.52%
during the crisis years (2008 and 2009). Average across all the
divergence on average for the whole period of 1971-2009. In states shows that growth during the pre-crisis and the crisis years
columns 2 and 3, we examine if there is any difference in the were essentially the same. But the question remains if there was
strength of divergence in each successive decade. To do so, the log of any differential in the growth performance across states during
initial income per capita is interacted with the respective decadal the crisis years and which states took a bigger hit.
dummy. In column 2 we have only time fixed effects and in col- Chart 5 (p 51) shows that out of 21 states, nine states experi-
umn 3 we have both time and state fixed effects. The coefficient enced a slowdown during the crisis years compared to the pre-crisis
on the log of initial income per capita is negative - statistically years, eight states had a higher growth during the crisis years,
insignificant in column 2 and significant in column 3. Coefficients and the remaining four had nearly the same performance in the
52 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 ШЗИ Economic & Political WEEKLY
= SPECIAL ARTICLE
Chart 8: Growth in the Share of the Working Age Population and Growth of Income Per Capita busines
Panel A: 1971-81 Panel B: 1981-91
- as pro
3
state.9
•AS *DL *HY
5 * KK the cha
' ON
^ #AP * A MH • tki ,N These p

^ £ 2
U 2
о. u .RJ (p 52)
S • UP ^1 о - - "" "" in outp
2 ^ £
a state
I 1 »BH I 2
§ I "OR share o
• RJ ^Л/R KL ^ *BH service
openne
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 -2 0 .2 .4 i correla
Growth in working-age ratio 1971-81 Growth in working-age ratio 1981-91
Panel C: 1991-2001 Panel D: 2001 -09 Tamil N
5
most o
•kl v. .Hp 8
WB «KL rienced
In contr
! 4
8
u 3
and As
i .HV £ few tr
I 2 resilien
- ^
1 i »UP Of cou
2 1 ••№
w ° *RJ multipl
•AS *AS
0
preclu
О .2 .4 .6 о .5 1 1
Growth in conclus
working-ag
Source: CSO, Census tions seem
of to be consistent withand
India,
NSDPpc during a decade on the ave
globalisation conferring dynamism
crisis and stoking
years asgrowth but in
at the same time
theinducing vulnerability.
pr
with the highest growt
which Stylised Fact 4: Demographic Dividend
registered Seems
greate
(Chart 6, To
p Be Disappearing
52). Our an
taka, Bloom and
with Williamson (1998) argue that different age groups
Bangalore a
worst have different
with a economic behaviour and that any discussion of the
dramatic
during the crisis.
impact of population An
growth on economic growth should take
decline in growth
into account the changing age structure. Accordingof
to one esti-
Tamil mate, demographic
Nadu dividend accounted for one-third of the
experienc
Could it growth in the
be east Asia during 1965-90
case (Bloom et al 2000).th
Using
balised provincial level data for
before 1989-2004, Wei and
the Hao (2010) show
crisi
We that changes
cannot in the demographic structure
easily have helped fuel
meas
China's economic growth since 1989.
internationally but we
economic profile of
Demographics affect growth because different eac
age groups exhibit
services different economic behaviour.
tend to A higher
beshare of the working-
hig
the share age
of population has a positive effect on growth through various
manufactu
Table 4: Demographic Dividend and Growth; By Decade channels - a higher labour supply on
Dependent variable is tne Growth
account of an increase in the popula-
Rate ot income Per capita during
2001-09 2001-09 1991-2001 1981-91
New States Old States tion as well as behavioural changes
such as increased female labour par-
Log of initial share of 0.53 10.59 5.83 13.70** 15.78*** 13.77** -0.22 4.67
ticipation, higher savings as working-
working-age population (13.33) (6.93) (10.19) (4.94) (5.13) (5.18) (5.73) (4.75)
Growth in the share of the -2.13 -1.22 -0.92 -0.18 2.85** 2.38* 0.40 0.29 age groups tend to save more than the
working-age population (1.81) (1.50) (1.44) (1.21) (1.27) (1.14) (1.05) (1.07) young and the old, and greater invest-
Log of initial income 1.36 1.07 -0.81 1.19 ment in education and health as
number of children being raised
Constant -5.54 12.61*** -0.80 13.44*** 18.99** 10.16*** -8.85 5.30*
decline and the lifetime over which
the investment can be recouped be-
Observations
R-squared
comes longer. Thus, a favourable
States
change in the age structure, i e, an in-
Robust standard crease in the share ofin
errors the working-age
pare
main states do not include Jam
Source: Authors' population, as captured by the growth
calculations.
Economic & Political weekly ШСЭ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 53
Table 5: Demographic Dividend and Growth: Panel Regressions with Decadal Interactions Chart 8 (p 53) (Panels a
OLS Difference GMM System GMM
of income per capita fo
Log of initial GDP per capita -5.164*** -9.925 -7.941 -0.110 -0.005 growth in the share of
sponding decade.12 For th
Log of initial share of 34.429** 54.033 40.959** 22.611 8.713 1991-2001, there is a pos
working-age population (13.015) (31.912) (6.021) (16.551) (0.828) (Chart 8, Panel a-c). How
Growth in the share of 3.992 6.312 4.694 2.191 0.985
two are negatively corre
working-age population (2.647) (4.333) (2.720) (1.908) (1.263)
the demographic divide
Growth in the share of working- -2.801 -3.006 -3.346 -2.541 -1.233
age pop*1980s dummy (2.171) (3.571) (2.832) (2.513) (1.571) To test this, we estimat
Growth in the share of working- -0.970 -1.939 -1.109 0.166 2.649 mented with the standar
age pop*1990s dummy (2.967) (3.854) (3.393) (4.280) (3.021) of the working-age popu
Growth in the share of working- -5.676* -9.754 -7.547* -0.590 in
-1.800* the share of the wo
age pop*2000s dummy (2.720) (7.427) (3.786) (1.276) (0.880)
growth in the share of
State FE
tively correlated with in
Time FE
income per capita for th
Observations
p 53). The coefficient on

Number ofgroups
No of instruments 20 17 29 21 age population is negativ
Lag length However, for the decad

Collapsed instruments
two variables is positive
Arellano-Bond
and test
6). For for AR(2
the 1980s also
in first differences (p value) 0.79 0.08 0.03
between growth in the s
Hansen test of overriding
key demographic dividen
restrictions (p value)
Difference in Hansen tests The estimated coefficient

All- System GMM Instruments age population for the
(p value)
comparable to that est
Those based on lagged
pooled OLS for 1971-200
growth only (p value)
Total effect for 2000s: and

Growth Modi (2011) also us
in the share of working cases,
age the coefficient is f
pop +(Growth in the share
This simple analysis su
of working age pop*
Dummy for 2000s)=0
dividend was only really s
Table 6: Average An
(p value) during the

the 1990s
Share ofand
the in
W
Robust standard errors reported
in the 2000s thedenotes
¡n parentheses.*,**,***
State
relatio
sta
and 1% respectively. Only the main states are used. New states are
Andhra Pradesh
has
state they were created from for thethe wrong
period 2001-09, sign even
i e, the old det
Source: Authors' calculations.
Assam
it is insignificant. Table 5
Bihar
in the share of the the estimates
working-age obtain
population
Delhi
positively influence growth. the data

pooling for 197
Gujarat
Hope in India's future

andgrowth
includingis founded
Haryana o
interacti
dividend: a rapidly growth in
expanding Himachal
young the
Pradesh 0.64 share
0.81 o
populatio
inject entrepreneurial vigour that
Karnatakawill
working-age lift th
population
growth trajectory. The
eachdemographic
decade.
Kerala
dividen
We report r
Madhya Pradesh
by analysts and forecasters
obtainedas one basis
using for
ols, diff
Maharashtra
economic future. And corroborative
GMM, evidence
and system gmm
Qrissa
recent papers by cases (2010)
Kumar (columns
and
Punjab
1, 3, an
Aiyar a
the pattern of the
growth incoefficient
the 2000s
Rajasthan
on the
appears in
to
The share of the tion withTamil
working-age the Nadu latestas
(defined deca
ag
tion in the total population
negative in
and India
Uttar has been
statistically
Pradesh s
late 1970s. This share is projected
cant. In the to increase
other
West Bengal
two
Data for share of the working-
to 63.9% in 2035 before
theit starts
coefficient trending
1991 and do
isrespective
2001 is from neg
projections of age-specific dist
undergoing changes in thestatistically
though age compositio
on the 2001 insi
Census are used. T
distribution from the latest 20
that can help contribute
cant. to its
(Appendix growth. Table Kum4
available at the time of the wri
and Mody shows
(2011), using the estimates
state-level
Source: Censusdata wit
of India for
and aut
that there is a positive

lapsed and a statistically
instruments.) This too sugs
growth in the share of the working-age in
graphy in the 2000S was different f
growth. Aiyar and Modi (2011)
This could be due estimate th
to the fact that
divided could add up to and
before 2 percentage
after 2001 in the poin
state
growth during the next two
graphic decades.
structure (Table 6). Post
^ C4
^ JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII no 3 ШШ
projections from the 2001 Census, Kumar (2010) shows that the It has relied on services rather than on manufacturing as an
growth in the working-age population is likely to have been con- engine of growth; growth has been skill-intensive rather than
centrated in four states, the so-called bimaru states.15 Close to intensive in the use of India's abundant factor; India despite
49% of the increase in India's working-age population during being poor is exporting skills and technology in the form of fdi
2001-11 was likely to have been contributed by these four states. and that too to countries much richer than itself.
Growth in the share of the working-age population in the four The analysis of growth in the 2000s throws up one more quirk,
states was amongst the highest. Now, while the bimaru states, relating to Kerala. The conventional wisdom is of a state that is
especially Bihar, did perform better in the 2000s than in the Scandinavian in its social achievements but sclerotic in its
1990s, they still lagged behind the other states. That might growth performance because of investment-chilling labour laws
explain why we find here that the growth in the share of the and strong trade unions, and reflected in a labour force that has
working-age population is not positively correlated with eco- voted with its feet by emigrating to west Asia. Well, the data sug-
nomic growth in the 2000s. At least so far, these states have not gest that the conventional wisdom is dead wrong. Kerala posted
been able to utilise fully the young population to their advantage. amongst the highest rates of growth in the 1990s (4% per capita),
But this might change in the future. continued its stellar performance in the go-go 2000s (7.5%),
In any event, it seems premature to tout the benefits of the and exhibited great resilience during the crisis, experiencing
demographic dividend. virtually no decline in growth.
India, evidently, is capacious enough to allow both, reforming
3 Conclusions
Gujarat and, reform-resistant Kerala to flourish. Or, to put it more
honestly,
India's growth has been distinctive in many ways, what one the Indian growth miracle, including the experience of
of us has
the 2000s,
dubbed the "Precocious India" phenomenon (Subramanian 2007).continues to confound.
NOTES Table 3 that the total effect in the 2000s was and IT enabled services and is probably the only
indeed one of divergence. The last row of Table 3 tradable component. However, due to lack of data
1 Source: Handboo
and Appendix Table 3 reports the p-value for the at the state level we are unable to use a more
Reserve Bank of
total effect for the 2000s; it is positive and statis- disaggregated classification that excludes these
April 2011.
tically significant in column 2 of Table 3 and all potentially non-tradable components.
2 Throughout this paper, year refers to India's fiscal
the system GMM estimates. 10 Of course, tradability in this context could refer to
year, i e, 1951 refers to 1951-52.
8 In a few cases, our specifications under difference domestic or external trade and therefore the drop
3 See, however, Bhattacharjea (2006) for a strong
GMM and system GMM do not pass the standard in growth could be due to fall in either external or
critique of this study.
specification tests related to no autocorrelation domestic demand which we do not distinguish.
4 Among the other smaller states, three - Meghalaya, (Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences) 11 Source: World Population Prospects (2010 revi-
Pondicherry and Sikkim - did experience slow- and the joint validity of instruments (Hansen test sion), United Nations. Available at http://esa.un.
downs in the 2000S compared with the 1990s. and the Difference-in-Hansen tests). org/unpd/wpp/index.htm.
5 In short, divided Bihar and Jharkhand are con- 9 Business services as defined in the state national 12 Growth in the share of the working-age popula-
sidered together as an undivided state of Bihar, accounts include real estate, ownership of dwell- tion in total population for 2001-09 is calculated
similarly Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are ings, and business services. Of these, business using projections of state-level populations by
jointly considered as Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar services includes IT (information technology) age-group based on the 2001 Census.
Pradesh and Uttarakhand are considered together
as Uttar Pradesh. Data Appendix
6 We estimate different specifications for differ- Variable
ence and system GMM by using all the lag Income

lengths and the minimum possible lag lengths
measur
for instrumenting endogenous variables as well
as by collapsing the instrument set and combina- domesti
tions of both. Table 3 reports estimates using per cap
different lag lengths (Roodman 2007). Appendix is from
Table 3 shows estimates obtained by collapsing Popula
the instrument (for all the available lag lengths)
popula
and the estimates obtained by reducing the lag
length and collapsing the instrument set. The figure
two approaches allow controlling for instrument

proliferation which overfit the endogenous vari- Ratio of working-age Working-age
ables as well as weaken the Hansen test of the
population to total distribution is ob
joint validity of instruments. The difference
GMM specification using only one lag length is population. age-specific distribution is available for states is 2001 .
not reported as the equation is under-identified. For 2009, we use Census of India projections of age-distribution at the state level.
Estimates obtained from difference GMM by These projections were released in 2006 and are based on the 2001 Census. To
collapsing the instrument sets are the same as obtain the share of the working-age population in 2009, average annual growth
those without collapsing but are reported in
rate of the working-age population during 2001-06 and 2006-11 was used.
any case.
Growth of income per capita Growth of income per capita is the average annual gr
7 The coefficient on the interaction of initial income
with decadal dummies indicate how much more concerned. It is calculated as the differential of the logs of incom
or less divergence there was in any particular the two periods divided by the time elapsed between the two pe
decade over and above the average captured in by 100. Since we use different numbers for population, growth
the uninteracted initial income term. So, a posi-
here are likely to differ from officially reported growth rates of p
tive coefficient on a decadal dummy does not
and also because growth rates are calculated as log differentials.
mean that there was divergence in that decade.
To ascertain the absolute performance in any Growth in the share of the Growth in the share of the working-age pop
decade, we need to add the coefficient on the working-age population average annual growth over the period conce
decadal interaction with the coefficient on the
to total population of the logs of ratio of the working-age popula
uninteracted income term. When we do this for
the 2000S, we see that in columns 2, 6 and 7 of periods divided by the time elapsed between the two pe
Economic & Political weekly ШХЭ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 55
Appendix Chart 1: Growth during 2004-09 and Income in 2004 Appendix Table 1: Unconditional Convergence Regressions
w lu
for Ail States (1993-2009)
? »MH Dependent Variable Is
i
гм
2001-09 1993-2009 1993-2001 2001-09 1993-2009 1993-2001
1 ТЛ ®GJ
New States
* 8
§ *BH .AP
Log of initial 1.37* 1.53*** 1.13 1.61** 1.57*** 0.93
S. A ост
£
income per capita (0.67) (0.43) (0.73) (0.68) (0.46) (0.87)
I 6 #WB Constant -7.94 -10.40** -7.68 -10.47 -10.79** -5.60
3
с ^
< ^
Observations
I
R-squared
< 9 9.5 10 10.5

I < 4
States
Log ofNSDPpcin2004
Robust standard error
Line shown is the fitted plot obtained by regressing av
during 2004-09 on the log»of** *»»
NSDPpc denotes
in 2004. statis
Source: CSO and authors' Source:
calculations.Authors' calcu
13 The relationship between growth in per capita in- Appendix Table 2: Unconditional Convergence Regressions (2004-09)
come and growth in the share of the working-age
population and initial share of the working-age 2004-09
population can be derived using the conditional

convergence equation specified for example, in
Bloom and Canning (2004).
Log of initial income per capita
14 The interaction of the growth in the share of the
working-age population with decadal dummiesConstant
tell us how much more or less was the influence of
the changing-age structure in each decade over
Observations
and above the average captured by the uninter- R-squared
acted growth in the share of the working-age States
population. A negative coefficient on the interac- Robust stan

tion does not mean that there was a negative im- Source: Authors' calculations.
pact in that decade; it only tells us the difference

in that decade relative to the average. To obtain Appendix Table 3: Convergence and Divergence (1971-2009)
the overall impact of the growth in the working- Difference GMM System GMM
age ratio in any decade, we need to add the coef-
ficient on the interaction for that decade with the
coefficient on the uninteracted term. When we do Log of initial GDP per capita -8.613 -4.602 -0.827 -1.089** -1.054** -0.766
this for the 2000S, we see that in columns 1, 3, and
5, the total effect of the growth in the share of the Log of initial GDP per capita* 1.191 1.518 2.439** 2.548*** 2.456*** 2.040**
working-age population is negative. However, in
Dummy for 1980s
all cases the total effect is statistically insigni-
ficant as shown in the last row of Table 5 and Log of initial GDP per capita* 1.737 1.729 2.359** 2.519*** 2.471** 2.155**
Appendix Table 4. Dummy for 1990s
15 BIMARU refers to the states of Bihar (undivided), Log of initial GDP per capita* 3.101* 2.751*** 2.111*** 2.673*** 2.624*** 2.438**
Madhya Pradesh (undivided), Rajasthan, and Uttar
Dummy for 2000s
Pradesh (undivided).
State FE
Time FE
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Aghion, l> R Burgess, S Redding

"The Unequal Number of
Effects
groups
of Libera
from Dismantling No of instruments
the Licens
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Ahluwalia, M (2000): "Economi
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Aiyar, S and A Mody (2011): "Th
in first differences (p value)
dend: Evidence from the Indian

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Paper No WP/11/38 (Washingto
Amin, M and A Mattoo (2008): of instruments (p value)
the Changing
Difference-in-Hansen tests Structure of the
Policy Research
All- System GMM Instruments
Working Paper
World Bank, Washington DC.
Besley, T and (p value)
R Burgess (2004): "C
Economic Those
Performance? b
Eviden
Quarterly Journal of Economics,
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Bhattacharjea, A (2006): "Labour

Total effect for
and Industrial Performance in India: A Critical
Review of the Empirical Evidence", The Indian of Initial GDP p
Journal of Labour Economics, 49(2): 211-32. Log of Initial G
Bloom, D E and D Canning (2004): "Global Demo- Dummy for 20
graphic Change: Dimensions and Economic
Significance", NBER WP # 10817 (MA: Cambridge).
(p value)
Robust stan
Bloom, D E and J G Williamson (1998): "Demographic Only the ma
Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging i e, the old
Asia", World Bank Economic Review, 12 (3): 419-55. Source: Authors' calculations.
5^ January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 E33S3 Economic & Political weekly
Bloom, D E, D Canning, P N Malaney (2000): "Popu- Appendix Table 4: Demographic Dividend and Growth: Panel Regressions with Decadal Interactions
lation Dynamics and Economic Growth in Asia", Difference GMM
Population and Development Review, Vol 26:

257-90.
DeLong, J В (2004): "India Since Independence: An
Log of initial GDP per capita 1.518 0.916 0.098 -1.146 0.355 0.159
Analytic Growth Narrative" in Dani Rodrik (ed.),
Modern Economic Growth: Analytical CountryLog of initial share of working- 15.802 8.950 11.913 27.081* 10.472* 11.005
Studies http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Econ_
age population
Articles/India/India_Rodrik_DeLong.PDF.
Growth in the share of 2.157 1.029 1.448 2.676 0.688 0.936
Ghani, E, ed. (2010): The Service Revloution in India
(India: Oxford University Press). working-age pop
Kochhar, K, U Kumar, R Rajan, A Subramanian andGrowth

I in the share of working- -3.020 -2.645 -1.938 -3.452 -1.954 -1.977*
Tokatlidis (2006): "India's Pattern of Develop- age pop*1980s dummy
ment: What Happened, What Follows?", Journal
Growth in the share of working- 1.127 2.008 1.408 0.125 2.753 3.254
of Monetary Economics, Vol 53: 981-1019.
age pop*1990s dummy
Kumar, U (2010): "India's Demographic Transition:
Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective", Eco-Growth in the share of working- -1.329 -1.164 -1.589 -1.096 -1.061 -1.236
nomics Program Working Paper # EPWP 10-03 age pop*2000s dummy
(New York: The Conference Board).

State FE
Lahiri, A and К Yi (2009): "A Tale of Two States: Ma-

harashtra and West Bengal", Review of Economic Time FE
Dynamics, 12(3): 523-42. Observations
Lane, P R and G M Milesi-Ferretti (2007): "The External

Number ofgroups
Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended

Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, No of instruments
1970-2004", Journal of International Economics,Lag length All Two All Two Two One
73, November, 223-50.
Collapsed instruments
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(New York: Oxford University Press).
Rodrik, D and A Subramanian (2005): "From 'Hindu first differences (p value)
Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of Hansen test of overid restrictions (p value) 0.21
the Indian Growth Transition", IMF Staff Papers, Difference in Hansen tes
Vol 52( 2): 193-228.
All-system GMM instruments (p value)
Roodman, D (2007): "A Note on Theme of Too Many

Those based on lagged
Instruments", Working Paper No 125 (Washing-
ton DC: Center for Global Development). (p value) 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.71
Subramanian (2007): "Precocious India , Business Total effect for 2000s: Growth in the
Standard, 14 August. share of working-age pop +(Growth in
Wei, Z and R Hao (2010): "Demographic Structure and the share of working-age pop*Dummy
Economic Growth: Evidence from China", Journal for 2000s)=0 (p value) 0.81 0.95 0.90 0.25 0.66 0.83
of Comparative Economics, Vol 38: 472-91- Robust standard errors reported in parentheses. *, **, *** denotes statistical significance at 10
Williamson, J and R Zagha (2002): "From Slow
the main states are used. New states are combined with the respective state they were created
Growth to Slow Reform", Institute for Inter-i e, the old definition of states is used.
national Economics, Washington. Source: Authors' calculations.
REVIEW OF WOMEN'S STUDIES
October 22, 2011
Subverting Policy, Surviving Poverty: Women and the SGSY in

Small Loans, Big Dreams: Women and Microcredit in a Globalisin
Women and Pro-Poor Policies in Rural Tamil Nadu: An Examination of Prac
Informed by Gender? Public Policy in Kerala - Seema Bhaskaran

Addressing Paid Domestic Work: A Public Policy Concern - Nimushakavi V
Reproductive Rights and Exclusionary Wrongs: Maternity Benefits - Lakshmi Ungarn, Vaidehi
Reinventing Reproduction, Re-conceiving Challenges:
An Examination of Assisted Reproductive Technologies in India - Vrinda Marwah
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Economic & Political weekly I
Integrating Mathematics and History:
The Scholarship of D D Kosambi
RAMAKRISHNA RAMASWAMY
Today, D
oversha lutionised the study of Indian history by bringing diverse
D D lutionised academicacademic
Kosambistrands
strandsthattheincluded
[1] is study widely that
mathematics, of Indian regarded included history as mathematics, the by scholar bringing who statistics, diverse revo-
statistics,
mathem
Marxist thought and critical analysis to historiography. He also
areas
made important contributions in the areas of genetics, numis- fo
body
matics, Indology, literary criticism and Sanskrit studies, in addi- of
tion to his considerable work in mathematics, which he taught all
mathem
his working life. He thus occupies a very special place in the intel-
his inte
lectual development of modern India.
theToday, Kosambi's significance and his contribution as hist
a historian
Kosamb
greatly overshadows his reputation and contributions in mathe-
matics.
Kosamb He simultaneously worked in both areas for much of
his adult life, and to understand the body of his work either in
channel
the social sciences or in mathematics, an appreciation of the
- to
complementarity of his interests is essential. An understanding cre
of Kosambi the historian can only be enhanced by an apprecia-
tion of Kosambi the mathematician. For those not trained in the
subject, the mathematics may itself be subtle and difficult to
follow in its entirety, but a knowledge of the intellectual pre-
occupations, the questions that concerned him, and the tech-
niques and tools at his disposal can help in bringing out the very
natural manner in which ddk's mathematics informed and
refined his approach to history. In a fundamental way, Kosambi
embodied the multidisciplinary approach, channelling diverse
interests - indeed combining them - to create scholarship of
high order [2].
The constancy of Kosambi's interest and work in mathematics
is telling, and a significant component of how and why he was so
influential as a historian. From 1930, when his first contribution
[3] appeared in the Indian Journal of Physics , to 1966, when
his article in Scientific American entitled "Numismatics as a
Science" [4] appeared shortly before he died, ddk authored
about 65 articles which are either on mathematics, statistics, or
use either of these fields as integral components of his studies in
other areas [5].
Kosambi's career as a mathematician might have taken a very
different course if he had managed to stay on at Harvard for a PhD,
possibly with William E Graustein [6] or with George D Birkhoff [7],
I both early mentors. Owing to a combination of reasons, though,
would li
for their
the Phi Beta Kappa scholar who had graduated cum laude returned
for discus
to India to take up a teaching position at Bañaras Hindu Univer-
book prov
sity in 1929, without the doctorate. He
Meera
moved to Aligarh Muslim
Kos
University in 1931, to join a department of mathematics that
Ramakrish
included the French mathematician, Andre Weil, and a number
vice-chanc
of colleagues of note such as T К Vijayaraghavan. He also started
58 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 ШЗ Economic & Political WEEKLY
publishing independently in these years, articles of both a of Silver Coinage in India". He was also well aware that this anal-
pedagogic nature as well as original contributions. ysis had a wider applicability and could have significant conse-
quences in other areas of inquiry.
Early Work From this point onwards, although he published in both areas,
One early work that stands out, a testimony to a sense of mischief Kosambi's publications in the social sciences far exceeded those
and humour and to an age, is his paper "On a Generalisation of in mathematics, and as the impact of his work in Indian history
the Second Theorem of Bourbaki" which was "a parodie note increased, as a mathematician his development did not proceed
passed off as a serious contribution to a provincial journal" [8], at a comparable rate.
the Bulletin of the Academy of Sciences, up [9]. Bourbaki was a fic-
Main Mathematical Contributions
tion, the creation (and eventually the nom-de-plume) of a group
of avant-garde French mathematicians that included Weil. When For the record, in all ddk authored around 150 publications,
DDK was finding it difficult to deal with a senior colleague at Ali- including articles, essays, monographs, and books. Of the 65 or
garh, Weil apparently suggested to him that he use the Bourbaki so that were in mathematics and statistics, there are both
myth to deflate the senior's ego. Kosambi was more than happy to articles of a pedagogical nature as well as original papers. The
comply, and in the process, the name of Bourbaki first entered principal mathematical contributions that he is known for stem
the scientific literature in the title of this paper [10]. Kosambi got from two papers that he wrote in quick succession, one that
completely into the spirit of things, discarding not one but three appeared in the Journal of the Indian Mathematical Society, and
Vysokoblagodaren axioms in the process and killing off a D Bour- one in the Annals of Eugenics in 1943 and 1944. That this was
baki through lead poisoning during the Revolution [9]. The French done when he was a college lecturer, at a time when the country
group went on to systematise much of modern mathematics was at war, and when the national movement was at fever pitch
through several books and monographs that appeared subse- is all the more significant.
quently as from the "Bourbaki school" [10]. In perspective, the 1940s were the best time for Kosambi's
Nearly 10 years were to pass before Kosambi wrote his first creative genius. In the period from his mid-30S to his mid-4os, he
article that dealt with a non-mathematical subject. In 1939, seemed to have found his métier, the synthesis of ideas in diverse
"A Note on the Trial of Socrates" appeared in the magazine of areas. While still in Pune, where he had limited access to libraries
Fergusson College, Pune, to which ddk had moved by then. He or critical colleagues, he branched out into new areas of enquiry,
had also acquired a respectable curriculum vitae with over 20 created new disciplines, came up with revolutionary methods of
publications, many of them on "path-geometry" [11], an area of analysis, and essentially developed into the polymath that he is
study that was to occupy him for several decades. He had made known to have been. When he moved to the Tata Institute of
valuable contacts with some leading geometers in Europe, among Fundamental Research (tifr), he continued to live in Pune for
them being T Levi- Civita and E Car tan who communicated his some of the time, famously commuting to Bombay by train on the
papers [12] and commented on them. His linguistic talents were Deccan Queen several times a week, getting a considerable
also in evidence - in these 10 years, he had published articles in amount of his work done in transit, but spending little real time
French and German, and had even had an article translated into in tifr. Although he would be on the rolls there for something
Japanese. In later years, he was even to write an article on the like 15 years, this tenure would end on a bitter note.
method of least-squares that was first published in Chinese, and In addition to the two papers mentioned above, one other work
only later in English [13]. of ddk's done around the same time illustrates the syncretic
An article in a college magazine is one thing, a proper scholarly nature of his approach to scholarship. A little background may be
article in the social sciences is quite another. Kosambi's initial appropriate, given that the basic question remains interesting
papers outside mathematics were to appear in 1940, in the and relevant even today. The Harvard philologist, George Kingsley
Annals of the Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute , titled Zipf had, in the course of his analysis of a variety of texts, been
"The Emergence of National Characteristics among Three Indo- led to propound a law that pertains to the frequency of word
European People" [14] and in the New Indian Antiquary, "A Note usage in natural language texts. Zipf's law states that the number
on Two Hoards of Punch-Marked Coins Found at Taxila" [15]. The of times a given word is used in a natural language is inversely
latter was a critique and review of earlier work, and was preceded proportional to its rank. Thus, the most frequently used word in
and succeeded by a number of articles in the Bangalore journal, the English language, "the" is used about twice as often as the
Current Science , on ancient Indian coins, their composition, and second most frequently used word "of", and three times as
their weights [16, 17]. frequently as the word of rank three, namely, "and" and so on. A
As has been extensively documented, the novelty of Kosambi's number of languages are known to obey this "law", and indeed,
approach to numismatics lay in his use of statistical techniques. papers continue to appear on the unexpected occurrence and
His research was intensive. Starting with the paper "A Statistical validity of Zipf's law in a number of different contexts, notably
Study of the Weights of Old Indian Punch-Marked Coins" in city sizes, and dna sequences [18].
Current Science [17], he carried out a series of systematic studies, Kosambi was not in consonance with a related observation of
papers such as "On the Study and Metrology of Silver Punch- Zipf's on word frequencies, and he elaborated this disagreement
Marked Coins, A Bivariate Extension of Fisher's z-test" and in the paper "On Valid Tests of Linguistic Hypotheses" [19]
"Correlation and Time-Series" and "On the Origin and Development that also appeared during this time in the New Indian Antiquary.
Economic & Political weekly ESOSI January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 59
This work illustrates the intellectual synthesis, the breadth of In a lecture given on the occasion of Kosambi's birth centenary,
knowledge - and acerbity! - that ddk possessed. Kosambi felt Bhattacharjee [23] contends that
that Zipf' s work was poorly validated, and his attack was direct the kind of thought process that guided Kosambi in his work on the
[19], starting proper orthogonal decomposition also dominated his study of history.
[...] The resemblance with the proper orthogonal decomposition is
It is known that in any connected piece of writing ('language stream')
striking. The essential factors need to be picked out in history, the cor-
the number of words used twice is far less than that used only once.
rect set has to be chosen in the decomposition. Reading the book is not
The number occurring three times is still less and the drop continues
enough for history, experience is essential in deciding how many vari-
rapidly. [...] Zipf has proposed a law' for this, the number of words ables to keep in the decomposition.
used n times being, according to him, proportional to n~2. The main
purpose of this note is to raise serious objections to this inverse square On Map Distance
'law'. These objections are statistical. I maintain that no such law,
The other contribution of Kosambi's that has lived on is his work
whatever the exponent, will do for the data so given because the fit is
not sufficiently good even when the best exponent is taken by calcula- in genetics, on what is termed the map distance. Already in the
tions on the logarithmic scale. To put this in non-technical language: early part of the 20th century, a quantitative approach to genetics
to every head, there will be the cube-shaped wooden box that fits best, was under way with the work of Thomas Hunt Morgan and others
but in general, a rubber cap or a hat of the right size will fit better, and
who had begun systematic studies of mutations in the common
the latter is more likely to indicate a contour of the skull.
fruit fly. Morgan's discovery that variability from generation to
ddk then went on to present a statistical analysis of word generation originated in the redistribution of genes on chromo-
frequencies in old Kannada or Halegannada, using the corpus somes was seminal, and has led to the idea of genetic linkage,
provided by the three texts Kavirajamarga , Voddaradhane, and that groups of genes may move together when germ cells, namely,
Pampasatakam, and pointed out that the statistics are inadequate. eggs or sperm, are formed. Morgan's hypothesis was that by
As it happens, a number of subsequent works have criticised examining the differences in crossover frequencies between
scaling laws [20] such as this on very similar grounds. The linked genes, one might be able to estimate the distance between
importance of examples and counterexamples stems primarily the genes on the chromosomes. This led to the definition of the
from the fact that the arguments are applied in reverse, namely, so-called map distance, and the first estimate of this quantity was
that if natural languages have characteristic patterns that are by J В S Haidane, in 1919.
statistical, then any "text" with the same statistical patterns can Although Kosambi probably had no prior knowledge of genetics,
be construed as a language and analysed as such. Indeed, some his interest was sparked by the fact that Haldane's work was
recent efforts to understand the organisation of dna sequences empirical and only approximate, while the mathematical state-
proceed from this premise [18]. ment of the problem allowed for a cleaner solution. There was
Either because of the interest in numismatics, or from his sta- also a thread of statistics that ran through this work, since many
tistics work in general, ddk was led to consider the problem of of the experimental observations on which the map distance
computationally processing large amounts of data. The paper was based involved estimates. The mapping function that
"Statistics in Function Space" [21] resulted from this research. Kosambi proposed was very general, and allowed for the fact
The data was likely to be "high dimensional", namely, it had that recombination events at different points on the chromosome
dependence on a large number of variables, and the question was were not necessarily independent, especially when the positions
whether there was some way of throwing out the inessential, and were nearby. In the light of our current knowledge of dna struc-
finding a "low dimensional" representation that would capture ture this is a very natural allowance that must be made, but at
the main features of interest. This approach is used extensively in the time when these proposals were made, the structure of
a number of areas of application: what was needed was a mathe- genes - or indeed that of dna - was largely unknown. "The
matical way of separating the wheat from the chaff. Estimation of Map Distance from Recombination Values" [24]
Kosambi's work was published in the Journal of the Indian was published in the Annals of Eugenics (now the Annals of
Mathematical Society in 1943, and regrettably, not followed up in Human Genetics) in 1944, and it continues to be widely cited and
any more internationally known forum. Today the method he used even to this day.
proposed goes under the name of the Karhunen-Loève expan- By 1946, he had fallen out with the authorities at Fergusson
sion, although Karhunen's work appeared in 1947 and Loéve's College, and had moved to the newly established tifr Bombay.
in 1948. There has even been a serious suggestion that this be In January 1947 he was president of the Mathematics Section
renamed the Kosambi-Karhunen-Loève expansion [22]. Be that of the Indian Science Congress that was held in Delhi, and his
as it may, this is a widely used and very useful technique, whereby presidential address "Possible Applications of the Functional
the main features of a problem, its so-called principal components Calculus" [25] is a discursive review of his ideas on function
can be extracted via the technique of proper orthogonal decom- spaces and the proper orthogonal decomposition [26].
position. As a tool for analysis, this is powerful, although there is In 1948-49, ddk spent a long period of time in the us, first as
considerable freedom in choosing the functions that constitute visiting professor at the University of Chicago where he lectured
the essential modes. on tensor analysis, followed by visits to the Institute for Advanced
That this work was motivated by Kosambi's studies in statistics, Studies in Princeton (where he met Einstein) and the Massachusetts
and the fact that he wrote this while he was also examining the Institute of Technology in Cambridge. His return to India was via
statistics of ancient coins were perhaps not merely coincidental. London, where his interests in history brought him into contact
JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 Ш Economic & Political WEEKLY
with A L Basham. The 1950s saw ddk flourish as a historian, with independent conjecture, but was candid enough to assert that
the publication of his Introduction to the Study of Indian History [27] neither hypothesis could be proved or disproved using probaba-
and numerous other works. He continued to apply statistics to a listic methods [33].
number of problems, but increasingly, his interest turned to prime In many ways Kosambi was temperamentally more a statisti-
numbers. This obsession was a dominant theme in his later years. cian than a pure mathematician; his appreciation of a proper use
Indeed, when he died he had just completed a manuscript, "Prime of statistics runs through many of his papers, and underlies his
Numbers" (this has unfortunately been irretrievably lost [28]). main contributions in science as well as in historiography and
Owing to differences in style as well as differences in priorities, numismatics. He paid particular attention to the correct interpre-
he had a major rupture with the leadership at the tifr where his tation of statistical results, and emphasised this in several of his
appointment was not renewed after 1962. Although he continued papers. Specific contributions such as the Kosambi distance and
to work, both in mathematics and in history, for the next two the principal orthogonal decomposition have stood the test of
years he was without a formal position. time, but in the end, Kosambi's main contribution was to empha-
sise a certain rigour in data analysis, whether it pertained to
Pure Mathematics science, to genetics, to coins or to literature, and to make prescient
and lateral inferences from such rigorous analysis.
This changed in 1964 when he was appointed а с sir Emeritus
In this sense, he was a member of an elite group of intellectu-
Professor attached to the Maharashtra Vidnyanvardhini in Pune.
alsyears
The uncertainties and the acrimony that surrounded these who believed that a mathematical approach was valuable
even
made him bitter, and when viewed from the outside after when discussing and analysing phenomena that were typi-
the
cally of
passage of time, a trifle quixotic. He published a number classified as too "human", as not subject to the tools of ana-
lytic to
papers [29] under the pseudonym S Ducray [30], and chose theories. Today these are in a sense commonplace, compris-
ing as they do the core of complex systems studies where human
publish results that were potentially of tremendous significance
behaviour
in pure mathematics - a proof of the Riemann hypothesis [31] no itself is analysed via game theory, societies are modelled
as best,
less - in the Indian Journal of Agricultural Statistics [32]. At groups of interacting agents, and language is analysed as an
algebra. All these approaches, associated now with the names of
this choice of journal was viewed with perplexity. However,
the results could not be substantiated and his mathematical
von Neumann, Nash, Chomsky, Tinbergen, Simon, Arrow, and
reputation suffered as a consequence. In a posthumous others,
review had their roots in the 1940s and the 1950s. In that sense,
of this paper that appeared in the Mathematical Reviews Kosambi
of the was born at the right time, and it is fortunate that the
unique combination of his diverse interests and his formidable
American Mathematical Society , the Hungarian mathematician
intellect
A Rényi generously interpreted ddk's unsuccessful attempt to came together very naturally to find full expression in
revitalising
prove the Riemann hypothesis as the statement of a new and the study of Indian history.
NOTES AND REFERENCES

and the audience in his own latest brainwave developed the idea in a number of papers, includ-
which might have developed that very ing "Parallelism and Path-spaces", Mathematische
morning
[1] For brevity and convenience,
between the breakfast table and the lecture in this article I
Zeitschrift, 37, 608-22 (1933) and "Path-spaces of
will refer to Damodar Dharmananda Kosambi as
room", he continues: "But the moment he began Higher Order", Quarterly Journal of Mathematics
DDK or just Kosambi. (Oxford), 7, 97-104 (1936) and so on. In the 1950s
to talk about mathematics, the others (no matter
[2] A Gupta and К Haydock,
what their Bright
specialty) quietly stopped their own he was onSparks
the editorial board of the(New
Japanese
Delhi: Indian National Science Academy,
chatter to listen. It was impossible not to love 2009),
journal, Tensor (New Series) wherein he published
pp 98-102. such a teacher." "The Metric in Path-space", Tensor (New Series), 3,
[3] "Precessions of an Elliptical Orbit", Indian Jour- [8] A Weil, The Apprenticeship of a Mathematician 67074 (1954), possibly his final paper on the topic.
nal of Physics, 5, 359-64 (1930). (Basel: Birkhäuser, 1992). [12] The papers "Geometrie différentielle et calcul des
[4] "Numismatics as a Science", Scientific American, [9] "On a Generalisation of the Second Theorem of variations", Rendiconti della Reale Accademia
March 1965. Bourbaki" Bulletin of the Academy of Sciences, Nazionale dei Lincei, 16, 410-15 (1932) and
[5] DDK used mathematics and statistics not only to UP 1, 145-47 (1931). Kosambi thanks Weil for "Affin-geometrische Grundlagen der Einheidichen
bolster historical evidence, particularly in the making him aware of the "important work" of Feldtheorie", Sitzungsberichten der Preussische
field of numismatics, but also to debunk claims this Bourbaki. The French group eventually Akademie der Wissenschaften, Physikalisch-mathe-
of extrasensory perception (ESP), in actuarial chose the initial N (Nicolas) for Bourbaki rather matische klasse, 28, 342-45 (1932) were commu-
studies, in philology and in analysing trade and than the D (Damodar?) given by Kosambi. nicated to the journals by T Levi-Civita, while,
commerce.
[10] M Mashaal, Bourbaki: A Secret Society of Mathe- "Parallelism and Path-spaces" Mathematische
[6] Kosambi studied differential geometry with
maticians (American Mathematical Society, Zeitschrift, 37, 608-22 (1933) was communicated
William С Graustein (1888-1941) who was on the 2006).
Providence, by E Cartan, who wrote a commentary, "Obser-
Mathematics faculty at Harvard. In [11]
later years,
Starting with "On the Existence of a Metric and vations sur le memoire precedent", Mathema-
DDK was to serve on the committee that theselected
Inverse Variational Problem", Bulletin of the tische Zeitschrift, 3 7, 619-22 (1933) that followed
the Fields medalists, and in writing about that in
Academy of Sciences, UP 2, 17-28 (1932), DDK DDK's paper.
the Proceedings of the American Philosophical
Society, 137, 268-72 (1993), Garrett Birkhoff makes
reference to "Graustein's student D D Kosambi". For the Attention of Subscribers and
[7] In a moving obituary published in The Mathe-
matics Student, 12, 116-20 (1945) Kosambi dis- Subscription Agencies Outside India
cusses Birkhoff's mathematical contributions
It has come to our notice that a large number of subscriptions to the EPW from outside the country together
and the role he played in the development of
American mathematics. Although he is with the subscription
frank in payments sent to supposed subscription agents in India have not been forwarded to us.
his appraisal, "Birkhoffs own lectures left very
We wish to point out to subscribers and subscription agencies outside India that all foreign subscriptions, together
much to be desired even twenty-five years later.
with the appropriate remittances, must be forwarded to us and not to unauthorised third parties in India.
Those of his lectures that the advanced students
We take no responsibility whatsoever in respect of subscriptions not registered with us.
did understand were invariably considered by Manager
them the most inspiring that they had ever
heard, but usually he lost himself, the subject,
[13] The paper, "The Method of Least-squares", has been re-investigated recendy, by В D Jayaram, [27] Introduction to the Study of Indian History (Popular
Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural and M N Vidya, "Zipf s Law for Indian Languages", Book Depot: Bombay, 1956).
Statistics, 11, 49-57 (1959) originally appeared Journal of Quantitative Linguistics, 15, 293-317 [28] Apparently DDK mailed the only copy he had to
in Chinese in the Académica Sinica journal, (2008). the publishers Routledge and Kegan Paul, but all
Advancement in Mathematics, 3, 485-91 (Д957)- [19] "On Valid Tests of Linguistic Hypotheses", New efforts to trace that or a second copy that may
[14] "The Emergence of National Characteristics Indian Antiquary, 5, 21-24 (1942). DDK uses have been given to H Bhabha have been in vain.
among Three Indo-European People", Annals of Kanarese rather than Kannada and Halagannada [29] The four papers published by D D Kosambi as
the Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute, 20, rather than Halegannada. S Ducray were (a) "A Note on Prime Numbers",
195-206 (1940). [20] See, e g, W Li, "Zipf's Law Everywhere", Giotto- Journal of the University of Bombay, 31, 1-4 (1962),
[15] "A Note on Two Hoards of Punch-Marked Coins metrics, 5, 14-21 (2003). (b) "Normal Sequences!", Journal of the University
Found at Taxila", New Indian Antiquary, 3, 156- [21] "Statistics in Function Space" Journal of the of Bombay, 32, 49-53 (1963), (c) "Probability
57 (1940). and Prime Numbers", Proceedings of the Indian
Indian Mathematical Society, 7, 76-88 (i943)-
[16] Indeed, the work in the New Indian Antiquary
Academy of Sciences, 60, 159-64 (1964), and
[22] G Kallianpur, Bulletin of the American Mathe-
was also Reviewed in Current Science, 7, 345*46 (d) "The Sequence of Primes" Proceedings of the
matical Society 34, 43-48 (1997)-
Indian Academy of Sciences, 62, 145-49 (1965)-
(1941) by KAN (possibly К A Nilakanta Sastri, [23] J К Bhattacharjee, "Turbulence" (Lecture given Of these, (b) and (c) were reviewed in Mathe-
the pre-ëminent historian of South India) who on the occasion of the Kosambi centenary, matical Reviews.
declares while admitting to not understanding the University of Calcutta, 2007).
mathematics of it all, that this work "is important, [30] The Kosambi family had a dog name Bonzo who
[24] "The Estimation of Map Distance from Recombi- was fondly known as Dukkar (meaning pig in
and one hopes that the Director General of
nation Values", Annals of Eugenics, 12, 172-75 Marathi) on account of his being somewhat rotund.
Archaeology, the museums of the country and
(1944). While commenting on the main result, Given DDK's sense of the mischievous, S Ducray
individual owners of coin-cabinets will give him
DDK's eclectic scholarship, as well as his sharp- was the French-sounding version of the dog's
[Kosambi] all the aid he needs for carrying his
researches further."
ness, comes through as he says of the formula: name, the initial being for Svana, namely, the
The similarity of this with the velocity addition Sanskrit for dog. That their combination echoed
[17] The papers that DDK published here include "A formula in the special theory of relativity should schweinhund could hardly have escaped DDK who
Statistical Study of the Weights of the Old Indian
not be made the basis of more bad philosophy knew German well enough to teach the language
Punch-Marked Coins", Current Science, 9, 312-14
(italics added). at the Bañaras Hindu University. In the papers
(1940); "On the Weights of Old Indian Punch-
[25] "Possible Applications of the Functional Calculus", written as S Ducray, DDK is thanked profusely.
Marked Coins, Current Science, 9, 410-11 (1940);
"ABivariate Extension of Fisher's Z-test", Current Proceedings of the 34th Indian Science Congress. [31] The Riemann hypothesis is considered by most
Partii: Presidential Addresses, 1-13 (1947). mathematicians to be the most important unre-
Science, 10, 191-92 (1941Л' "Correlation and
Time-Series", Current Science, 10, 372-74 (1941); [26] In [25], Section 8, Kosambi gives the following solved problem in pure mathematics. This states
"On the Origin and Development of Silver examples of where the functional calculus tech- that the Riemann zeta-function Ç(s) = £i/ns,
Coinage in India", Current Science, 10, 395-400 niques would apply. If average temperature where s is a complex number and the sum is over
(1941); "The Effect of Circulation Upon the curves are available for any range or period, is it all the integers has "nontrivial" zeros only when
Weight of Metallic Currency", Current Science, possible to say whether two samples from two the real part of s has the value 1/2. This is one of
11, 227-31 (1942); "A Test of Significance for different places differ materially? Or do two the so-called Millennium Prize problems for
Multiple Observations", Current Science, 11, skulls found by the archaeologist or anthro- which a grand cash award has been announced
271-74 (1942). pometrician in two different places differ signi- by the Clay Mathematical Institute.
[18] A comprehensive collection of articles on Zipf s ficantly? The need for a mathematical technique [32] "Statistical Methods in Number Theory", Journal
law has been maintained by Wentian Li at the to decide questions of this form are suggestive of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, 16,
website http://www.nslij-genetics.org/wli/zipf/. of how his interests in one area inspired work in 126-35 (1964)-
The applicability of the law to Indian languages the other. [33] Mathematical Reviews MR0217024 (36 # 119).
RELIGION AND CITIZENSHIP
January 7, 2012
Plural Societies and Imperatives of Change: Interrogating Religion and Development in South Asia - Surinder S Jodhka
Religions, Democracy and Governance: Spaces for the Marginalised in Contemporary India - Gurpreet Mahajan,
Surinder S Jodhka
Religious Transnationalism and Development Initiatives: The Dera Sachkhand Bailan - Gurharpai Singh
Social Constructions of Religiosity and Corruption - Vinod Pavarala , Kanchan К Malik
Buddhist Engagements with Social Justice: A Comparison between Tibetan Exiled

Buddhists in Dharamsala and Dalit Buddhists of Pune - Zara Bhatewara, Tamsin Bradley
In the Name of Development: Mapping 'Faith-Based Organisations' in Maharashtra - Surinder S Jodhka, Pr
Welfare Work and Politics of Jama'at-i-lslami in Pakistan and Bangladesh - Masooda Bano

320-321, A to Z Industrial Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg,
Lower Parel, Mumbai 400 013.
62 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ШЕЗ Economic & Political weekly
Bourbaki's Destructive Influence
on the Mathematisation of Economics
К VELA VELUPILLAI
It is important to remember that Bourbaki almost never actually

The first appearance of a reference to a Bourbaki
proved new theorems.
mathematical result was the spoof by D D Kosambi,
- Laurent Schwartz: Л Mathematician Grapples with His Century , p 157.
published in the first volume of the "Bulletin of

1 An the Preamble on Bourbaki1
Indian
Academy of Sciences of the United Provinces of Agra and
It is regrettable that it is not explicitly mentioned [by Kosambi] how
Oudh", 80 years ago, although it was not the much
first[in his paper] originates from [D] Bourbaki2 and what the gen-
eralisation consists of, since the mentioned work by the Russian is un-
reference to Bourbaki in a mathematical context. In
available to most scholars3 Shouten (1932).
mathematical economics there seems to be an
increasing identification of Debreu's mathematisation of

Serendipitously,
economics with Bourbakism, although the Serendipitously,
tion
post-second
ing ingthethe first
of Kosambi' tion
s first appearance
appearance 2012of(1932)
of this Kosambi's
name is theinfamous of 80th(1932) famous
this anniversary
a mathematical spoof namespoof ona ofBourbaki,
on in Bourbaki, mark-
mathematical the publica- mark-
publication. But
world war mathematics of general equilibrium it may not have been the last such Indian
theory
grounded spoof ' Haimos (1957' 89; italics added), in his elegant
can be shown to be consistent also with the
Scientific American piece on Nicolas Bourbaki pointed out:
contributions ofthe Polish School of Mathematics in the
At about the time Bourbaki was starting up, another group of wags
interwar period. In this paper an attempt isinvented
made E S Pondiczery,to
a purported member of the Royal Institute of
Poldavia.4 The initials (e s p, r i p) were inspired by a projected but
summarise the story ofthe emergence of Bourbakism,
never-written article on extrasensory perception. Pondiczery's main
originating in India, and its recent demise as well
work was ascuriosa.
on mathematical how His proudest accomplishment was
the only known use of a second-degree pseudonym. Submitting a paper
it played a destructive role in mathematising economics
on the mathematical theory of big-game hunting to The American
in one, uncompromisingly non-constructive, mode.
Mathematical Monthly , Pondiczery asked in a covering letter that he
be allowed to sign it with a pseudonym, because of the obviously face-
tious nature ofthe material. The editor agreed, and the paper appeared
(in 1938) under the name H Pétard.5
Whether Pondiczery was a pun on Pondichery, or whether the

I am using "destructive" as the antonym of "constructive" (in
author was an Indianthe
(from Cambridge or Princeton), has never
Brouwer-Bishop senses rather than in its Russian sense).
been made clear. The Hilbert or IAxiomatic Method, Axioms 1 and
Of course
should have used non-constructive; but I am influenced in this choice by
h, the Rule of Procedure and the Bolzano-Weierstrass Method, as
the way Sokal, in his famous "Hoax" paper (1996; 2008) used profound
defined
as the antonym "of trivial", when he knew (ibid, # 98, p on36)
the very
he firstshould
page of Pétard (1938), aka Pondiczery,
have used "non-trivial"! cannot but be read as a dig at the destructive mode of the Hilbert-
This is an ultra-condensed, summary, version of a more extensive paper, Bourbaki mathematical method.
with almost the same title, to appear as Appendix II, in my forthcoming
The ultimate spoof was, of course, the more recent, spectacular
book : Algorithmic Foundations of Computation, Proof and Simulation in
one by Alan Sokal (1996; 2008), but to the best of my knowledge
Economics (Springer-Verlag 2012). Conversations with Adrian Mathias,
whose lectures on the foundations of mathematics at Cambridge I at- there was no Indian angle to it, mathematical or otherwise.
tended, almost 40 years ago, during his visit to Trento a few months ago Ever since the appearance of André Weil's autobiography (in
were most helpful in the framing of some ofthe issues broached in this French in 1991; in English as Weil 1992), the Indian Bourbaki
paper - as was his brilliant discussion of "The Ignorance of Bourbaki" connection has been well known to scholars and students inter-
(Mathias 1992; 2012). As always, discussions with my friends, Stefano
ested in the origins of this famous6 pseudonym.
Zambelli, Selda Kao and V Ragupathy, on topics of relevance to the
subject matter tackled in this paper, were enlightening. Given the
There is, therefore, no need for me to rehash known facts; but
controversial stance I take, on Bourbaki in Economics, it is particularly some interpretation of the facts may well be in order, especially
important to emphasise that none ofthe above four worthies are even since I am less than convinced of Weil's strong opinions on Indian
remotely responsible for any of the infelicities in it.
and other personalities he met during his brief, two-year sojourn
К Vela Velupillai ( kvelupillai@gmail.com ) is at the department of in India in 1930-32, the workings of Indian institutions of higher
economics, Algorithmic Social Sciences Research Unit, University of learning and even of Indian history and mythology.7 In particu-
Trento, Italy.
lar, his caricature of the mercurial Syed Ross Masood,8 whose
Economic & Political weekly ШШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^3
personal generosity was instrumental in hiring him to come as nowadays13 clear that classical theory (as here formalised) is too am-
professor of mathematics, at the tender age of 23, to Aligarh Mus- biguous to give a definite answer to some problems of analysis (e g, the
continuum problem). It is possible then that this book may itself
lim University (amu). Syed Masood had assumed duties as its
soon have only historical interest
vice chancellor, in 1928, with a brief to revamp its scholarly
underpinnings with competent and prestigious appointments. The "possibility" that Gandy envisaged has been realised; and
Apart from Weil, there was also the appointment of Rudolf "the intuitionist school" is alive and well, with the new lease of
Samuel, an experimental physicist, to the physics professorship. life provided by the exciting developments of providing founda-
Of this appointment Weil is scathingly condescending, forgetting tions for mathematics via category theory.14
that his own appointment to the mathematics professorship at My aim in this brief section is simply to point out three direc-
amu had been on the basis of a recommendation by his Stras- tions of contemporary mathematical research, both in founda-
bourg friend, Sylvain Lévi, the orientalist and Indologist, who tional studies and in mathematical practice, that make Bourbakian
was also a friend of Syed Masood.9 methodology and epistemology to "have only historical interest",
Moreover, the facts about С V Raman's visit to amu do not sub- especially for the mathematisation of economics: (a) the obsoles-
stantiate the assertions by Weil (ibid: 81) on the appointment of cence of set theory or, to be more precise, Bourbakian structures
Samuel - who, after all did stay on at amu till 1936, trained some - as the sole provider of foundations for mathematics; (b) the
distinguished Indians in experimental chemistry, particularly practical relevance of undecidability, even in economically
spectroscopy, a field in which Indian science was not quite back- applicable dynamical systems theory; and (c) the resurgence of
ward, even at that time.10 Moreover, Samuel also collaborated intuitionistic logic and the relevance of varieties of constructive
productively with the professor of chemistry, the Englishman, mathematics.
R F Hunter, before both of them left amu in 1936.11 In the case of (a), it has been found, in the last 50 years, first
Weil's caricature of Babar Mirza's marriage to a German, and gradually, but now more clearly and increasingly, that category
her alleged role in his support for Subhash Chandra Bose is, theory offers a "more fruitful foundational framework for
surely, an affront to the intelligence of this distinguished scien- mathematics than Bourbaki's structures" (Aubin 2008: 825).
tist, who served amu nobly and for long. Here, "more fruitful" means, from the point of view of non-classi-
As far as I am concerned the true Indian Bourbaki connection cal, computationally oriented logic, an encapsulation of whole
was provided by the active political and humane personality of
fields "officially" excluded from the Bourbakian "algebraic" pro-
that outstandingly critical, sometime Bourbakist, Laurent gramme (ibid; Schwartz 2001: 163).
Schwartz, especially as brilliantly and sympathetically por- In the case of (b), even as enlightened a Bourbakist as Roger
trayed, in the review of A Mathematician Grappling with HisGodement, in his superbly pedagogical Algebra15 (Godement
Century (Schwartz 1997), by Hermann Weyl's successor at eth,
1969), felt able to suggest that "the reader is unlikely to meet
the famous Indian mathematician К Chandrasekharan12 (1998).[a relation that is undecidable] in practice " (ibid: 26; italics
A point I shall make later, against economists who identify the
added). After the celebrated Paris-Harrington results (Paris and
work of a mathematician with and without his Bourbakist hat, is
Harrington 1977) and the further results on Goodstein's sequence,
perceptively pointed out by Chandrasekharan, with respect to
even for applicable - especially in economic dynamics - natural
Schwartz's pioneering work on distributions (ibid: 1143-44;number constrained dynamical systems (Paris and Tavakol 1993),
italics added): this same reader is, surely going to be routinised into meeting
It is an extraordinary instance of cerebral percolation that, after such undecidable
a relations in practice. The added bonus of bringing
trying period entirely taken up with problems of survival rather than
into the fold Ramsey Theory and questions on the valid mode of
mathematics, Schwartz should have come up with his idea of distribu-
tions [in 1944-45]... Bourbaki's influence on the process of percolation
interaction between the finite and the infinite (cf Ramsey (1926;
clearly is a moot point. 1978) and Ragupathy and Velupillai (2011) for a discussion from
the point of view of economic theory and its formalisation).
2 Bourbaki's Methodology and Brief Reflections Finally, in the case of (c), coupled to (a), there is the resurgence
The intuitionist school , of which the memory is no doubt destined to re-

of interest in the possibilities for "new" foundations for mathe-
matical analysis16 - in the sense of replacing the "complacent"
main only as an historical curiosity, would at least have been of service
reliance on set theory supplemented by zfc (i e, Zermelo-Fraen-
by having forced its adversaries, that is to say definitely the immense
majority of mathematicians, to make their position precise and to take
kel plus the axiom of choice) - brought about by the development
more clearly notice of the reasons (the ones of a logical kind, the
of category theory, in particular a category called a "topos". The
others of a sentimental kind) for their confidence in mathematics
Bourbaki (1984; 1994), p 38; italics added. underpinning logic for a topos is entirely consistent with intui-
tionistic logic, hence no appeal is made either to the tertium non
datur (the law of the excluded middle) or to the law of double
Robin Gandy (1959: 72; bold italics added), in his remarkably
lucid and critical review of the first part of the original Théorienegation in the proof procedures for topoi. This fact alone should
des ensembles by Bourbaki, reacted to the above premature Obitu-
suggest that categories are themselves computational in the pre-
ary of "the intuitionist school" with much prescience: cise sense of Brouwer-Bishop constructive analysis. As Martin
Hyland17 (1991: 282-83) emphasised:
[T]he logic that is developed is, right from the start, completely classi-
cal (Indeed, in the historical note [see the above quote]... it is asserted Quite generally, the concepts of classical set theory are inappropriate as
that Intuitionism will subsist only as an historical curiosity... But it is organising principles for much modern mathematics and dramatically so
^4 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 Ш Economic & Political WEEKLY
for computer science. The basic concepts of category theory are very had begun to evolve - some, like the Polish School and the
flexible and prove more satisfactory in many instances. Algebraists, quite independent of Hilbertian formalism and the
It is deficient scholarship at the deepest level of mathematics, Hilbert Programme - long before the Bourbakists were even
and its frontier foundational developments, that allows a conceived, via spoofs or not.
so-called mathematical economist to make senseless assertions Long before the Bourbakists had any influence in American
like the following (Ok 2007: 279)18: Mathematics, especially in mathematical economics, Marshall
Stone, a doyen of the field at us universities, paid handsome trib-
If you want to learn about intuitionism in mathematics, I suggest read-
ute to the Polish School of Mathematics of the interwar period
ing - in your spare time, please . . . articles by Heyting and Brouwer...
(quoted in Kuzawa 1968: 15-16; second set of italics added):
No wonder economists have been, at best, "spare time"
The work of men who have founded and developed Fundamenta Math-
mathematicians.
ematicae has had a deep influence on the mathematical progress of the
past quarter-century. Starting with Jamiszewski and Sierpiñski, there
3 Bourbaki's 'Destructive'
has grown up a fruitful movement with which American mathemati-
Mathematisation of Economics cians have had intimate and effective relations. The work in Topology
andex-
The doctrine mentioned in the title19 is the assumption, implicit or in abstract spaces is now recognised throughout mathematics as
of fundamental character; the Polish School under such men as Ba-
plicit, that only formally defined notions and therefore only explana-
nach and Kuratowski constituted, before the present catastrophe
tions in formal terms are precise. ...But, as is well known, mathemati-
(1939), one of the outstanding mathematical groups.
cal practice continues to use the 'rejected' notions, and, more impor-
tant, it makes no attempt to eliminate these notions even when this is
Stone's tribute, concentrating on set theory, topology and
possible. In other words, there is a conflict between (mathematical)
practice and (logical) theory on what is needed for precision functional
(Kreisel analysis, does not go far enough: he has forgotten the
1969: 2).
pioneering contributions made by the Polish School, in that he-
In the "Preface" to the Theory of Value (Debreu 1959: viii), we roic 20 -year period of 1919-39, to recursion theory, recursive
are informed that: analysis and metamathematics.
If the economic theoretic crown jewels of orthodox mathemati-
The theory of value is treated here with the standards of rigor of the
contemporary formalist school of mathematics. The effort towards cal economics are the Arrow-Debreu equilibrium existence theo-
rigor substitutes correct reasonings and results for incorrect ones, but rem and the fundamental theorems of welfare economics, then
it offers other rewards too.
the mathematical crown jewels that underpin them are, surely
Clower (1995: 311), in his wisdom, surmised that Debreu was relevant fixed point theorems (Brouwer, Knaster-Kuratwoski-
"referring, presumably, to the 'school' of Bourbaki". The caveat Mazurkiewicz [ккм], Kakutani) and separating and supporting
"presumably" is crucial. Since nowhere in the rest of the book do hyperplane theorems (especially the Hahn-Banach theorem). All
we find a precise definition of "rigour", who or what consists of of these can be taught - and learned - in a completely rigorous
the "contemporary formalist school of mathematics", or what axiomatic framework by anyone trained only in Polish mathe-
consists of "correct reasoning".20 Yet many lesser economists than matics, without any help from the Bourbakists. Elementary
Clower have rushed into equate this reference to "the contempo- texts on equilibrium theory pay at least lip service to what I
rary formalist school of mathematics" with the Bourbakists. Even have come to call the Polish Fix Point Theorem in proving the
a small, partial, list of such "equators" would include Boylan existence of an Applied Dynamic General Equilibrium, and
and O'Gorman (2009), Düppe (2010), Weintraub (2002) and thereby the crucial role it plays in the first fundamental theo-
Weintraub and Mirowski (1994). 21 rem of welfare economics.
Consider, however, the following counterfactual scenarios: Reflections by the pioneers of mathematical economics (even
Imagine a mathematically competent economist, with su- for example by Debreu 1984: 268-69) emphasise the crucial role
preme training in mathematics via the books of van der Waer- played by the Hahn-Banach theorem in demonstrating the (non-
den (1930; 1970), Birkhoff and Mac Lane (1941) and Mac Lane constructive) validity of the second fundamental theorem of wel-
and Birkhoff (1967). Now imagine, also, another economist - fare economics. Yet, it is von Neumann and Bourbaki who are
equal in mathematical competence to the first one - trained ad- considered the founding fathers of the mathematics and the
mirably in Kuratowski and Mostowski (1976)22 and Kuratowski mathematical methods of orthodox mathematical economics and
(1958; 1966). Add to this the innocuous, even fairly "realistic", formal economic theory - not the legions of interwar Polish
assumption that neither of these two mathematically compe- mathematicians who framed, codified and formalised set
tent economists had ever heard of Bourbaki - even in Kosambi's theory, topology and functional analysis (to which the contri-
spoofed version.23 butions of von Neumann and Bourbaki is a proverbial e, at least
Now suppose these two mathematically competent economists in my opinion).
chance upon The Theory of Value. Why would they "equate" Above all, the Polish School of mathematics did not neglect
Debreu's reference to the "contemporary formalist school of either constructive or computable mathematics, as we know from
mathematics" with the Bourbakists?24 Economists who rush to their pioneering contributions to both fields, all the way from
equate all kinds of axiomatic formalisations in economics with Emil Post's work in 1921, via the classics by Banach and Mazur in
Bourbakism, especially Debreu's work, forget that there were the late 1930s and the threads that were taken up, on such foun-
many "formalist schools of mathematics", and almost all of them dations, to develop computable analysis by post-second world
Economic & Political weekly 13253 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 5
war Polish mathematicians. Unfortunately, the constructive and irreversibly destroyed, by the reliance on Bourbakian mathemat-
computable analytic trends that enriched the formalistic part of ical method. For example, in the Bolzano-Weierstrass theorem,
the Polish School of mathematics were not part of the Bourbaki in the Bourbakian version, adopted in the Theory of Value, there
tradition. Thus, assuming pro tempore that the "equators" are are two destructive steps, one of which is routinely constructifia-
justified in identifying Debreu's method with the Bourbaki ble, the other is not, without adopting constructive mathematics.
method, then it is easy to show its destructive content, both For the separating hyperplane theorem(s), more constructive
methodologically and epistemologically. callisthenics have to be indulged in, from the outset. For exam-
There are at least 31 "propositions"25 in the Theory of Value, ple, by starting from separable (metric) spaces.28
not including those in Chapter 1, titled "Mathematics". The
4 Towards a Non-Destructive
Bourbakian mathematical method comprises the triptych of
Mathematisation of Economics
axiomatisation,26 proof and rigour. I shall have to pass on
axiomatisation, purely for reasons of space (although the By the end of the 19th century... the two major figures were Poincaré
discussion in Velupillai, 2012 will deal copiously with this sub- and Hilbert. ...Poincaré's thought was more in the spirit of geometry,
topology, using those ideas as a fundamental insight. Hilbert was
ject, essentially based on Kreisel and Krivine 1971 and Kleene
more a formalist; he wanted to axiomatise, formalise, and give rigor-
1952). Rigour, for the purposes of my interpretation of Bour-
ous, formal, presentations. They clearly belong to two traditions.
bakian destructive economics, via the Theory of Value , is cou- Bourbaki tried to carry on the formal programme of Hilbert of axi-
pled to proof. omatising and formalising mathematics to a remarkable extent, with
Thus, the destructive content of the Bourbakian mathemati- some success (Atiyah 2001: 657-58).
sation of economics can be narrowed "down" to methods of Not even Bourbaki has succeeded in "axiomatising and forma-
proof - and in this the Bourbakist's are squarely adherents of Bishop's constructive analysis. As Harvey Friedman (1977:
lising"
Hilbert's Dogma.27 They are destructive simply because the
1-2) explained very clearly:
methods of proof used in the Theory of Value are, all of them,
In [Bishop] there is no systematic attempt to delineate what consti-
non- constructive. Moreover, they are not of the destructive vari-
tutes an admissible piece of constructive (analytic) reasoning, nor to
ety that "constructivisation of [them] is almost routine" Bishop
present and analyse an underlying conceptual framework necessary
for such a delineation...
(1967: 359), referring to Brouwer's fixed-point theorem as "easy
Thus for Bishop, there is no need of a formal system to delineate the
to constructivise" - "routine" and "easy" have to be interpreted
in the appropriate context. admissible reasoning, for borderline cases do not naturally arise; and
there is no need for a philosophical analysis of a conceptual frame-
In particular, the two fixed-point theorems - Brouwer and
work. There is a body of mathematics, called constructive analysis,
Kakutani - the separating hyperplane theorems and the Bolzano-
which has an existence of its own independent of any particular
Weierstrass theorems are not routinely constructifiable,formal
i e, system or conceptual framework in which it is cast.
REVIEW OF URBAN AFFAIRS
July 30, 2011
Urban Concerns: An Introduction - Anant Maringanti, Amita Baviskar,

Karen Coelho, Vinay Gidwani
Bypassing the Squalor: New Towns, Immaterial Labour

and Exclusion in Post-colonial Urbanisation - Rajesh Bhattacharya, Kalyan Sanyal
Urban Development and Metro Governance - К С Sivaramakrishnan
Branded and Renewed? Policies, Politics and Processes
of Urban Development in the Reform Era - Darshini Mahadevia
Translating Marx: Mavali, Dalit and the Making of Mumbai's Workin
The Board and the Bank: Changing Policies towards Slums in Chennai -Nithya Raman

320-321, A to Z Industrial Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel,
Mumbai 400 013.
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 Q3S3 Economic & Political weekly
The message, therefore, is the following: the path towards a The exemplar of the kind of mathematisation of economics,
non-destructive mathematisation of economics entails a complete emulating Bishop's mode of doing constructive mathematics,
destruction of the Bourbakian mode of delineating admissible that I have in mind is Sraffa's classic Production of Commodities
reasoning, appointing commissars to police valid modes of for- by Means of Commodities (Sraffa i960). Like Bishop, it has
malisation and regimenting the notion of rigour to be utilised in resisted a "complete" axiomatised formalisation. Like Bishop,
proof procedures. It is to accept that rigour is "undefinable", proof it employs a collection of admissible modes of reasoning,
should not be subject to Hilbert's Dogma, nor axiomatisation a without seeing any need to embed them in any particular
desirable or necessary feature of a mathematised economics. formal system.
NOTES Cambridge. Forster visited India, in 1912/3, at claims and aims of classical analysis, by Stolzen-
Masood's invitation. berg (1970), is still worth reading carefully, espe-
1 Ramaswamy wrote me in July 2010, with an early
cially in this post-Bourbaki era.
version of his tribute to Kosambi (fils);9 IWeil's
wrote remarks on Rudolf Samuel's appointment on
the basis of a recommendation letter from Einstein 17 Indeed, it was Hyland's early result on filter spac-
back (on 6 July 2010):
- who was yet to make his decisive break with es that debunked Bourbakian beliefs that their
For a long time I have been "campaigning" against
the Bourbakian influences in mathematical eco- Europe - is, to put it mildly, most condescending: formalisation of continuous encapsulated com-
In physics, Masood thought it a triumph when he pletely the intuitive notion of continuity (Gandy
nomics. One of my Cambridge mathematics
pushed through the appointment of a German whose 1995; Hyland 1979). Hyland had been a pupil of
teachers, later a colleague at Peterhouse, Adrian
only qualification was a letter of recommendation Adrian Mathias, at Cambridge.
Mathias, . . .contacted me after a silence of 30 years,
a few months ago. He had written an elegant piece from Einstein, and whose merit in Einstein's eyes18 The full quotation, in footnote 47 of p 279, is too
titled: The Ignorance ofBourbaki (op cit), about a could only have been that he was an unemployed full of incorrect assertions that I constrain myself
Jew - for he never displayed any other qualities. to the least offensive part.
decade and a half ago, which I have been using
very regularly in my lectures. He is coming to Were Weil's qualifications, after Cartan's appoint-19 The Formalist-Positivist Doctrine of Mathematical
Trento, from the island of Réunion, where he now ment at Strasbourg, any better than Samuel's, Precision in the Light of Experience (bold italics
lives and teaches, in late October, to give a talk on especially since in the former case the recommen- added).
the mysteries of Bourbakian rope tricks! dation did not even come from a Jewish mathe- 20 Would Debreu claim that any example of "rea-
2 D Bourbaki was eventually baptised as Nicolas matician? Weil is only slightly less scathing about soning" in Bishop (1967) is "incorrect" because it
Bourbaki by Éveline Weil (Weil 1992: 101), the for- R F Hunter's appointment to the chemistry profes- does not adhere to the definition of "rigour" attri-
mer wife of another original Bourbakian, René de sorship at AMU. Hunter later became the head of buted to the "contemporary formalist school" of
Possel (the author of one of the earliest, if not the the department of botanical studies at the mathematics? After all, Bishop explicitly dis-
earliest books, on game theory). The saga of Éve- Scottish Hill Farming Research Organisation in Ed- avows allegiance to any formalist school of math-
line de Possel becoming Mrs Weil, and the early inburgh. ematics, contemporary or otherwise!
departure of René de Possel from the founding 10 Incidentally, when Samuel, an ardent Zionist, re- 21 Although I endorse the philosophical message in
group of Bourbakians, is poignantly outlined in newed his efforts to emigrate to Palestine, Raman Boylan and O'Gorman, the mathematical under-
Schappacher (2006). wrote a warm and appreciative letter of recom- pinnings, particularly Bourbakian claims are less
3 My translation from the original German. mendation on his behalf (in 1935)- than satisfactory. Düppe's claims are too absurd
Schouten's abstract seems to indicate that he took 11 An example would be "The Transition of Covalency to warrant even a cursory discussion - but I do
Kosambi's spoof seriously. Schouten was pro- devote considerable space to debunking his ridic-
to Electovalency", by R F Hunter and R Samuel,
fessor of mathematics at Delft and he is relevant ulous assertions in Velupillai (2012). One aspect
Journal of the Society of Chemical Industry,
in this story for two personal - from my point of of his mistake is the reliance on Giocoli (2003) for
PP 733-40, 25 September 1936.
his constructivist assertion on von Neumann.
view - reasons. His role in removing Brouwer's
12 In his email of 6 July 2010, Ram Ramaswamy
influence on the journal Compositio Mathematica Giocoli, in turn, relies on the thoroughly incorrect
wrote me (italics added):
(cf, van Dalen and Remmert 2006 and Velupillai definition of constructivity in Punzo (1991) -
Chandrasekharan is alive and not very well in which also mars the otherwise meticulous Wein-
2010 and 2011 for some history of these shenani-
Zurich. He has become a recluse, and has not traub (2002) discussion on Hilbert's formalism,
gans against Brouwer by Hilbert and Schouten);
and as the brilliant Dirk Struik's doctoral thesis allowed contact for several years now - and he for which he, too, relies on the completely false
and Kosambi started the TIFR [Tata Institute for and unscholarly definition and discussion in Pun-
advisor.
Fundamental Research] mathematics school in the zo (ibid). Düppe's extraordinary phrase, "Even if
4 Perhaps not unrelated to the fact that Nicolas Bour-
1940s and 1950s. I think they eventually fell out [Debreu] is now peremptorily rejected or belittled
baki's "origins" were in Poldevia (Weil, ibid, p 102) !
quite badly. as outmoded ...", must, surely, make every Com-
5 Pétard returned to the same scene, with the same
One of my earliest introductions to "Brouwerian putable General Equilibrium theorist, Real Busi-
pseudonym, with an equally facetious contribu-
Intuitionism" was through Chandrasekharan's ele- ness Cycle theorists building on the foundations
tion, almost 30 years later, and the earlier classic
gant pedagogical article, written in his youth and of Recursive Competitive Equilibria and Stochas-
spoof was even the subject of an even more amus-
published in The Mathematics Student (Chan- tic Dynamic General Equilibrium theorists writhe
ing spoof, also in AMM, in 1967 (Pétard 1938,
drasekharan 1941). My introduction to this article in intellectual pain! Finally, there is the following
1966 and Roselius 1967), by a "Christian Roselius
was via a reference in the rare classic by Rasiowa assertion, about which I am at a loss to say any-
of Tulane University". I leave it to the "interested
and Sikorski (1963). The distinguished Indian thing sensible (ibid: 2):
reader", John Kelley's (1955: vi) "elusive crea-
astrophysicist, Jayant Narlikar, who was a profes- Furthermore, although the entire effort of Debreu
ture", to speculate on this pseudonym!
sor at TIFR in Bombay, knew E M Forster very well was motivated by, and becomes intelligible only
6 Some would say "infamous"; a representative
during his Cambridge days at King's College. It be reference to, his training in a specific school in
sample of the better researched and "insider" ac-
was, by the way, Jayant Narlikar who introduced mathematics - "Bourbaki" - there are but a few
counts can be found in Beaulieu (1999), Mashaal
me to Luigi Pasinetti, during my first days as a economists who have ever heard of the name, and
(2002) and Schwartz (1997), as well as various
PhD student at King's College, in October 1973. even less who have read it. Debreu did.. .and eve-
articles and interviews with the individual math-
ematicians who made up the collective that was
13 Gandy's review appeared, recall, in 1959- Inciden- rything he said about his own work... can be
tally, Robin Gandy was Alan Tliring's only doctoral found almost word for word in Bourbaki.
- is - Nicolas Bourbaki, in The Mathematical
Intelligencer (e g, Senechal 1998) in the 1990s and
pupil and was Turing's literary executor. Alan There is no evidence that Düppe has even read De-
the first decade of this century.
Hiring, by the way, was conceived in India, exactly breu ("Uncertainty" forms the subject matter of
a century ago! Chapter 7, not 6), let-alone anything serious by
7 The general tenor of Schappal (op cit) on Weil's
character, supports copiously, my scepticism of 14 Itself developed by Eilenberg and MacLane
Bourbaki! As for only "a few economists who have
(1945), the former while not wearing his Bourbaki ever heard of the name...", I'll just leave it at that,
the reliability of Weil's opinions on his Indian
hat! pro tempore! Also, 'keeping close contact with' Weil
"adventures". His justification for absconding
from serving in the second world war, invoking 15 Which was my own textbook on the subject in my during his Chicago days (ibid, footnote 1) is one
the Gita and Dharma, is most amateurish, even if postgraduate years. thing; to know, work with, and learn from Weil as a
that I suspect, in fact, it is Karma he means, when 16 Not that any serious student of Bishop (1967) - as I Bourbakist is quite another thing, as tirelessly em-
he uses Dharma. have been for at least 30 years - will feel the need phasised by Schwartz, Cartier, Cartan, Diudonne
for any foundations for analysis, let alone "new" and even Weil (see also footnote 14, above).
8 Incidentally, A Passage to Inaia was dedicated to
Syed Ross Masood by E M Forster (mentioned also ones! The brilliant review of this classic by Bishop 22 I remember with crystal clarity the following can-
in Weil, op cit, p 59), who had tutored him at on constructive analysis, contrasting it with the did signpost in this wonderful book - following
Economic & Political weekly 13321 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^
Principia Mathematica practice (ibid: vi): "In order for Constructive Analysis", The Annals of Mathe- Economists", Journal of the History of Economic
to illustrate the role of the axiom of choice we matics, Second Series, Vol 105, # 1, January, pp 1-28. Thought, Vol 13, Spring, pp 1-18.
marked by a small circle ° all theorems in which Gandy, Robin (1959): "Review [of Théorie des Ensem-Ragupathy V and К Vela Velupillai (2011): "Frank
this axiom is used". Would that mathematical bles by N Bourbaki]", The Journal of Symbolic Ramsey", forthcoming in: The Elgar Handbook of
economists did the same! Logic, Vol 24, # 1, March, pp 71-73. the History of Economic Analysis, edited by Gilbert
23 This is not an entirely fanciful counterfactual.
- (1995): "The Confluence of Ideas in 1936" in Rolf Faccarello and Heinz Kurz, Edward Elgar, 2012.
Richard Goodwin told me that he once took Herken, Springer-Verlag, Wien (ed.), The Universal Ramsey, Frank P (1926; 1978): Ramsey Frank Plump-
unpaid leave for one academic year, in the mid- Turing Machine: A Half-Century Survey, pp 51-102,. ton (1927a), "Ramsey's Theorem", D H Mellor (ed.),
19408, and went "away" with Birkhoff-Mac Lane
Giocoli, Nicola (2003): "Fixing the Point: The Contri- Foundations - Essays in Philosophy, Logic, Mathe-
and Courant-Hilbert, and came back and wrote bution of Early Game Theory to the Tool-Box öf matics and Economics (London and Henley:
The Multiplier as Matrix (Goodwin 1949) - and Modern Economics", Journal of Economic Method- Routledge & Kegan Paul).
much else. To his dying day he was blissfully igno- ology , Vol 10, # 1, pp 1-39- Rasiowa, Helena and Roman Sikorski (1963): The
rant of Bourbaki. He had, by the way, also attend-
Godement, Roger (1969): Algebra (London: Kershaw Mathematics of Metamathematics (Warszawa:
ed lectures by Marston Morse. PWN - Polish Scientific Publishers).
Publishing Company).
24 Let me to add that I was advised to train myselfGoodwin,
in Roselius, Christian (1967): "On a Theorem of H Pe-
Richard M (1949): "The Multiplier as Ma-
the methods of van der Waerden and Birkhoff- tard", The American Mathematical Monthly, Vol 74,
trix", The Economic Journal, Vol 59, # 4, pp 537-55-
Mac Lane by my PhD supervisor, Richard Goodwin, # 7, August-September, pp 838-39.
Haimos, Paul (1957): "Nicolas Bourbaki", Scientific
and to read Mac Lane-Birkhoff by Lickorish, who Senechal, Marjorie (1998): "The Continuing Silence of
American, Vol 196, # 5, May, pp 88-99.
was lecturing on Algebra at Cambridge in the Bourbaki - An Interview with Pierre Cartier,
Hyland, JME (1979): "Filter Spaces and Continuous
early 1970s. I began reading Kuratowski and 18 June 1997", The Mathematical Intelligencer,
Functions", Annals of Mathematical Logic, Vol 16,
Mostowski and, later, Kuratowski, also at about Vol 20, # 1, pp 22-28.
pp 101-43.
the same time - in any case, long before I knew Schappacher, Norbert (2006): "Seventy Years Ago:
anything about the Bourbakists. - (1991) : "Computing and Foundations" in J H John-
The Bourbaki Congress at El Escorial and Other
son and M J Loomes (ed.), The Mathematical Revo-
25 Some, but not all, of them are called "theorems". Mathematical (non) Events of 1936", Madrid
lution Inspired by Computing (Oxford: Oxford
26 More precisely, formalisation by axiomatisation - Intelligencer, Springer.com, pp 8-17.
University Press).
but I shall return to these themes, in much greater Stolzenberg, Gabriel (1970): "Review [of Bishop
Kelley, John L (1955): General Topology (Amsterdam:
detail, in Velupillai (2012). (1967)]", Bulletin of the American Mathematical
Van Nostrand).
27 Discussed in some detail in Velupillai (2011). Society, Vol 76, pp 301-23.
Kleene, Stephen Cole (1952): Introduction to Metama-Schwartz, Laurent (1997): Un mathématicien aux
28 I refer the "interested reader" to Bishop (1967),
thematics (Amsterdam: Elsevier).
Appendix A and В for hints on non-destructive prises avec le siècle, editions Odile Jacob, Paris.
Kosambi, Damodar Dharmananda (1932): "On a Gen- - (2001): A Mathematician Grapples with His Centu-
constructions of proofs of Brouwer's fixed-point
theorem and the Hahn-Banach theorem and eralisation of the Second Theorem of Bourbaki",
ry, translated from the French by Leila Schneps,
Bulletin of the Academy of Sciences of the United Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel.
Mandelkern (1988), particularly for elucidation of
Provinces of Agra and Oudh, Vol 1, pp 145-47.
the two destructive aspects of the Bolzano- Shouten, Jan Arnoldus (1932): "Summary Abstract of
Weierstrass theorem. Kreisel, Georg (1969): "The Formalist-Positivist Doc- Kosambi (1932)", Electronic Research Archive for
trine of Mathematical Precision in the Light of Ex- Mathematics, Jahrbuch Database, JFM 58.0764.01.
perience", LAge de la Science, Vol III, # 1, pp 2-46.
Sokal, Alan (1996; 2008): Beyond The Hoax: Science,
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Bishop, Errett (1967): Foundations of Mac Lane, Saunders and Garrett Birkhoff (1967): Velupillai, К Vela (2010): "In Praise of Fostering Anar-
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Bourbaki, Nikolas (1984; 1994): Elements Mandelkern,
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PP 143-54. Stefano Zambelli and Stephen Kinsella, Edward Weintraub, E Roy (2002): How Economics became a
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Debreu, Gerard (1959): Theory of Value: An Axiomatic in Jon Barwise (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical
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68 January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ПОЗ Economic & Political weekly
contains some concluding comments on
A Note on the Methodology for the alternate measures of labour.
Measuring Labour Input from 2 Measurement of Labour Input

in Indian Firm-Level Studies
Company Databases With the oecd manual providing a useful

reference, we survey the empirical litera-
ture on firm-level productivity in India
ISHA С H AWL A with the explicit aim of looking into
the treatment of the measurement of the
1 Introduction
Studies on firm-level productivity labour input. As company level disclosures
about the "number of employees"2 is not a
based on Indian corporate data
firm-level productivity is obtaining mandatory requirement, even for listed
usually make their estimates
A major accurate firm-level concern
accurate data on thedataquantity
productivity
of in on the the estimation is quantity obtaining of of companies, the coverage of this data item is
on the number of employees outputs and inputs in the production func- incomplete in company databases such as
using the Annual Survey of tion from company databases. The oecd Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy
Productivity Manual (Schreyer 2001) notes (cmie) Prowess3 or in Capitaline that have
Industries or the compensation
that the labour input reflects the time, been widely used in such studies. As shown
to employees approach, with the
effort and skills of the workforce, and that in Table 1 (p 70), the fraction of manufac-
predicted employment approach
measurement should capture the amount of turing firms that report their employment
being another relatively new productive services provided by labour. It in Prowess3.i is very low.
points to evidence that labour productivity
methodology. This note compares This is unlike the Annual Survey of
may differ due to choosing between differ- Industries (asi) wherein Part-11 of the asi
the different approaches and finds
ent quantity measures for employment/or schedule, processed by the Labour Bureau,
that no particular one dominates
labour input, namely, the number of hours collects data on different aspects of labour
the rest in yielding estimates actually
ofworked, the number of full-time statistics, namely, working days, person-
equivalent jobs (or persons),1 the number of
labour coefficients that lie close days worked, absenteeism, labour turn-
employees (headcount), or the number of over, personhours worked and earning
to those in the actual data. The
employed persons (headcount) that includes and social security benefits during the
results of the analysis highlight
the self-employed. The hours actually reference year. However, as the primary unit
the strengths and weaknessesworkedof
capture the time dimension, and of enumeration in the survey is a factory
are taken to bear a closer relation to the in the case of manufacturing industries,
each approach.
amount of productive services provided by in the absence of firm-level identifiers,
workers than the headcount of employee this database cannot be used directly for
jobs that reflects neither changes in the firm-level analysis.
average work time per employee nor mul- Given the incomplete coverage of the
tiple job holdings. However, the simple employment indicator in firm-level data-
sum of all hours of all workers ignores the bases, productivity researchers have used
heterogeneity of labour. various proxies for the actual number
In Section 2 this note surveys the empiri- of employees/persondaysVpersonhours.5
cal literature on Indian firm-level produc- Three approaches, namely: "Asi-based
tivity, focusing on some widely-used method- approach"; compensation to employees6 as
ologies adopted for the construction of the proxy for the labour input; and the recently
labour input by estimation or imputation. introduced Lancheros and Girma (2009)
I am extremely grateful to my supervisors Section 3 describes a simple experiment approach of predicting employment are
Aditya Bhattacharjea (Delhi School of
that was conducted to compare one widely briefly surveyed below.7
Economics) and Bishwanath Goldar
used measure, as well as two new ones,
(Institute of Economic Growth) for their
valuable guidance and support. All errors are with the number of employees as reported (a) 'ASI-Based Approach': Firstly, data
my own responsibility. in company databases. Results are reported on total emoluments8 and total persons
Isha Chawla ( isha@econdse.org ) is a

in Section 4. Section 5 reports the results engaged9 for the respective year/s at the
PhD student at the department of economics, of a further experiment, which compares relevant two-digit or three-digit industry
Delhi School of Economics and also teaches at the labour coefficients estimated from a level, belonging to manufacturing, are
the department of economics, Lakshmibai Cobb-Douglas production function using the taken from the asi and an average wage
College, University of Delhi, Delhi.
various measures of labour input. Section 6 rate, taken as emoluments per employee
Economic & Political weekly ШШ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^9
Table 1: Percentage of Manufacturing Firms* in Prowess3.1 Reporting Their Number of Employees (2008-09) salaries, appropriately deflated by the
Two Digit NIC- 2008 Industry Classification Percentage of Manufacturing Firms in respective industry's Wholesale Price Index
Prowess3.1 Reporting Their Number
(wpi) or the Consumer Price Index (cpi) to
10 Food products 4.32 get real values, are used as a proxy for the
11 Beverages
labour input. Some authors support this
practice. Petkova (2009), referring to Schoar
12 Tobacco products
13 Textiles 4.28
(2002), using the plant-level us Longitudinal
14 Wearing apparels 5.34
15 Leather and related products
Research database, reports qualitatively
16 Wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture 9.09 similar results when using either the pro-
17 Paperand paper products 6.63 duction worker equivalent personhours or
18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 7.14 the labour wage bill (to proxy for worker
19 Coke and refined petroleum products 12.61
quality). Sivadasan (2006) has however
20 Chemicals and chemical products 9.46
criticised this approach noting that a
21 Pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products 8.69
potential bias may result from using labour
22 Rubber and plastics products 7.18
23 Other non-metallic mineral products 10.43 expenditure as a proxy for labour input if the
24 Basic metals 5.60 benefits from productivity are shared by
25 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
workers. If liberalisation leads to a reduc-
26 Computer, electronic and optical products 7.01 tion in wages, using labour costs could
27 Electrical equipment 8.18
bias productivity upwards. Table 2 (p 71)
28 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 9.23
surveys the firm-level studies that have
29 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 17.86
30 Othertransport equipment 10.25
adopted either of the first two approaches.
31 Furniture 6.67
32 Other (c) Predicted Employment Approach:

manufacturing 5.39
All manufacturing More recently, Lancheros and Girma 7.1
* Excluding 33: Repair and installation of machinery and equi
Source: Prowess3.1 database; Author's (2009),calculations.
noting the weaknesses of the asi
methodology, have introduced an alter-
is computed.10 Secondly,
This weighting each
scheme implicitly weights nate approach firm-yea
of estimating employment.
observation on
the average the
emoluments of thewage bill
larger Taking firms with availableobtaine
employment
from the company
plants with higher levels of database is
employment data from Prowess, divided
the elasticity of employ- b
the average more
emoluments
than the smaller plants with fewer ment per
with respect to employee
total assets is estimated
computed above (for
employees. This imparts the
a "plutocratic"11 correspondin
from the regression of log of employment
two-digit or three-digit
bias to the average wage rate towards on the loglevel) to
of total assets (controlling for get
measure of the
larger plantsemployment in
in comparison to the average time dummies). the
The elasticity firm.
is reported
Given the widely
wage rate that would noted to be 0.92 for software services and 0.67
have been computed heterogeneity in
wages acrossusing
firms,
"democratic" weightsthis method
(s¿ = i/N), as for of
the pharmaceutical industry. impu
The elasti-
ing firm employment has
the average of the individual plant "wage been
cities are then used to predict criticise
the level of
for its implicit
rates", N beingassumption
the number of plants employment in of those firmsa unifor
in these two
wage rate among all or
covered12 at the two-digit firms belonging
three-digit sectors whose employment data is not to a
industry (Goldar, Renganathan,
level.13 To the extent that larger plants pay reported in Prowess. Banga 200
Siddharthan and
higher Lai
wages, this will raise the2004,
imputed Lancheros an
Girma 2009,
averagePant
industry wage and and 3 Set-up of the Experiments
therefore lowerPattanayak 2010
among others) and
the estimated adjustments
firm employment. and the Database have bee
made to overcome this
In spite of the plutocratic problem
bias, as as infrom
the asi Using firm-level observations Goldar
the cmie
Renganathan, Banga
"average (2004)
emoluments per employee" wherein
are Prowess3.i emolu
database for the year 2008-09
ments per much
employee
lower than the cmie correspondingfor foreign
we conduct owne
some empirical exercises to
firms are taken
figures (refer Section to
4 ), studiesbe higher
based on indicate than
which of the alternate measuresth
industry average as
this approach are likely obtained
to overestimate the yield results from the
closest to the actual as
number
The asi average wage
labour input. A more severe problem israte as as computed
that of employees reported in Prowess3.i.
above (or Z = Xw¿5¿ for each as asi does not cover the services industry,14 The breakdown of all manufacturing
industry) can be taken as the weighted
the applicability of this methodology is industries by National Industry Classifica-
average of the individual plant "wage rates"
restricted to manufacturing firms alone. tion (nic-2008) industry codes, selected
(w¿), the implicit weight of each plant (s) for the experiment, with the percentage of
being in accordance with the share of (b)
its Compensation to Employees as Proxy firms disclosing their number of employees
employment (L¿) to total employment
for: the Labour Input: This methodology is given in Table 1 (refer Section 2). We
does not yield any estimates of the number consider all manufacturing as comparisons
s¡ = VI4
of employees. Rather, the firm's wages and can then be made with asi.
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 |шш Economic & Political WEEKLY
Table 2: Survey of the Methodologies Adopted for the Measurement of the Labour Input in Indian Firm-Level Studies the
Panel A: ASI Methodology
fere
Average Wage Rate Computed from Total Emoluments (at the Two-Digit/Three-Digit Level) and the Total Number of:
Employees or Persons Persondays Labour Hours

Engaged/Workers (Headcount)
(b)
Goldar, Renganathan, Banga (2004) Kathuria (2000) in S
Banga (2004) Sasidharan (2006) Balakrishnan,Pushpangadan, Babu (2000) to e
Kumar Sampath T (2006) Kato (2009) Hasan (2002)
ing
Saxena(2006)*
the asi data on total emoluments and total
Iyer (2008) Balakrishnan, Parameswaran,
persons engaged for 2008-09.21 This is
PattnayakandThangavelu (2009)
used to impute employment at the firm-
Nagaraj (2010)**
level, for both Samplei and Out-of-Samplei

Arnold, Javorick, Lipscomb, Majumdarand Bala Subrahmanya (2009)
firms.22 The labour measure thus obtained
Mattoo (2010)
Sharma (2010)
is hereafter known as the asi Measure,
Panel B: Compensation
which is then compared with the actual t
Wholesale Price I
of the Respective Industry Different Categories of Labour Wage Rate number of employees.
Topalova (2004)
(c) 'Predicted Employment Approach':
Petkova (2008) Mahambareand Srivastava, Gupta and
Following Lancheros and Girma (2009),
Topalova and Balasubramanyam (2005) Patta (2001)****
the elasticity of employment to assets for
Khandelwal (2010)
Mazumdar,
Samplei firms in 2008-09 is estimated
Rajeevand
from the regression of the log (number of
employees) on log (assets) with appropriate
controls. The log formulation is useful as the
* (2006) Saxena a
unskilled
range
(produc
of both the variables is very wide.
** Nagaraj Differences between
(2010)different types of firms
*** Ray (2004) u
**** are
Srivastavaestimated using dummy variables for (
categories of lab
"workers"
the firms'and
foreign equity holding and "o
industry (at the two-digit level).
Three Following
wage, expe the imf/oecd definition, a t
on an
thefirm isunw
identified
firs as "foreign" if the firm's
the foreign equity holding is 10% or above.
"wage-
previou
method
of The elasticity
firm bas
of employment with respect
to total assets is estimated to be 0.71 for
report
population
is all Samplei. As a consistency check, the same
firms
weight
ing was estimated to be 0.65cor
this
that for "Out-of-Sam-
dis
plei" firms and 0.68 for 697
scheme.
(around all manufacturing
tion firms reporting their
wage
of 50%employment. The r
from computed
manufa amoelasticity from Samplei firms is
used to get predictions
the
"Samplei", num for Samplei itself
are the(in-sample predictions)23
firms "Ou as well as pre-
dataemploy
dictions for the sample
on comof firms not used in
of the estimation (out-of-sample predictions)

spondi
employe
assetsfor Out-of-Samplei
wage at firms. These predic-
ra t
level tions (hereafter known as the Predicted
firm
for bo th
Employment Estimates) areye
for cmie
the then com-
M
actual
pared with the reported actual employ-
experiment
ment figures for both groups. As both
wage
estimating ra
groups of firms report their actualto
used employ-
(a) ment, this enables verification of predic-
of-Sam
'CMIE-B
tions against actuals.
three-d
Samplei fi
for Out
computed a
basis 4 Discussion of Results
with
of the t
The Prowess3.i
Prowes
ment, wher data on the number of
is sonemployees and measures
obtained of based on them
to exhibit extreme values, for instance the
actual
employ e
of-actual
employees number
Samof employees in Samplei
Economic & Political WEEKLY йШ JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3
ranges from i to 45,666 and in Out-of- Figure 1 : ASI 'Average Emolum
Selected Two-Digit Manufactur
Samplei, from 11 to 1,21,295. Therefore,
the tables report the descriptive statistics
о
and the labour coefficients with winsori- о

0
sation at the tails, clipping the distribution <2

с
250
.•
a» .**
to the (.01, .99) quantiles. A comparison _o & "26
а
of the descriptive statistics for the alter- Ш 200
nate measures with the actual data on the cu .•*

24
Ö - ■ 20
number of employees as given in the « Ñ^ ■ 28 "29
database is reported in Table 3. Average 1 150
E У "30
levels of asi measures are much higher ф .•*
CTI .• ■ je
than the alternate measures, as well as the I ,••• 22 .32
actuals, even though the "plutocratic" Š 100
weighting of wages should reduce asi- 5 .,,.13 14 *23

14 "16 "10
measures of employment. 50
' 0 200 400

This divergence can be explained by the
ASI Average Emolument
differences in the coverage of the "average Source: Prowess3.1 database, ASI
emoluments" expressions in the asi and

Prowess. The asi "average emoluments" firm level which includes the emoluments India. Also, t
represents the average remuneration at of all the employees including workers and include that
the plant/factory level while for cmie it management employees based at the firm's labour, whe
represents the average remuneration at the corporate offices including those outside who are on t
Table 3: Descriptive Statistics: Number of Employees

are thus not
two reasons,
tion to emplo
Number of em
average emol
in Prowess3.1
give a much
CMIE Measure
ASI Measure
As shown in
Predicted Employment Estimates "average em
Source: Prowess3.1 database; Author's calculations.
than the asi
to
Table 4: ASI 'Average Emoluments Per Employee* in Comparison with 3.8 times
CMIE 'Average Emoluments
TWo-Pigit Manufacturing (2008-09)
for the two-
NIC Codes Two Digit Manufacturing NIC-2008 Codes* ASI 'Average CMIE'Average Ratio of CMIE and
Emoluments Per Emoluments Per ASI 'Average considered fo
Employee' Employee'** Emoluments
in Figure 1
Ratio of CMIEshowing
and tha
ASI
14 Wearing apparels
are systemat
26 Computer, electronic and optical products age emolume
Ratio of CMIE and ASI 'Average Emolumen
Although the
11 Beverages
across indus
asi figures,
13 Textiles
16 Wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture
pattern as as
17 Paperand paper products
19 Coke and refined petroleum products

between th
20 Chemicals and chemical products
However, the
21 Pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products 169.8 the cmie wa
22 Rubber and plastics products
small set of f
24 Basic metals
representativ
27 Electrical equipment
average emo
28 Machinery and equipment nec
30 Other transport equipment

the group of
32 Other manufacturing
ment. Even
Ratio of CMIE andobtained
ASI "de
'Avera
10 Food products
average it is
23 Other non-metallic mineral products
firm-wise "w
25 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 121.0
problem at th
29 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
* Excludes NIC codes with veryage

few emolume
firms (three
Out-of-Sample1. ** The CMIE 'Average Emolum
wage rates obtained from
both
Samplel and
the
Out-of
tw
Sam
Source: Prowess3.1 database, ASI 2008-09; Autho
digit levels.
72 JANUARY 21, 2012 VOL XLVII NO 3 ШШЗ Economic & Political WEEKLY
Table 5: Frequency Distributions for the Firm-Wise Percentage Gap between Alternate Measures of Labour and coefficients, log transformations of the
Actual Number of Employees
labour input are made even for simple ols
Percentage Gap from Samplel (Percentage Frequency) 0ut-of-Sample1 (Percentage Frequency)
Actual Number of Employees CMIE Measure ASI Measure Predicted CMIE Measure ASI Measure Predicted estimation. When the percentage gap of
Employment Employment
the log transformations of the alternate
100% and above
measures are compared with the log of the
50% -100%
actual number of employees, a high per-
25%-50% centage frequency for all measures lies in
10% -25%
the о to (+/-) 10% range although the
0% - 10%
lowest percentage is still reported for the

asi measure (46%) as against the cmie
(-)10%-0%
measure (70%). For the same range, the

(-) 25%-(-) 10%
(-) 50%-(-) 25%
(-) 100%-(-) 50%

percentage frequency for Predicted Employ-
Total
ment estimates lies almost midway between
Source: Prow
cmie and asi percentage frequency. (The
estimates, over 40% and 30% respectively,
were Table for percentage gaps for log transfor-
obta
lie in 100% and above range. These mations
emolume two is not reported.)
measures greatly overestimate (by > 25%)
sented at
the
the number of employees for
corre more Correlation:
than Despite the divergence bet-
half the firms while the cmie measure not
ween the alternate employment measures
Deviations from Actual Number of and the actual number of employees, pair-
only seriously underestimates (by > 25%)
the number of employees for more wise
Employees: Table 5 reports the frequency than correlations between the measures as
distributions of the percentage gap of40% reported in Table 6 are quite high, even for
the of the firms but greatly overestimates
for some others as well. This pattern measures.
alternate measures of labour at the firm- asi is Correlations for Out-of-Sam-
similar for firms in Samplei as well as plei
level from the actual number of employees Out- firms are also high. The correlation
between
of-Samplei. The alternate measures
as reported in the company database. of the actual number of employees
labour
None of the alternate measures report a thus tend to increase the extent
andof
the Predicted Employment estimates
high percentage frequency in the the is lowest of all pairs in both cases: 0.75 for
о toactual heterogeneity in the labour head-
count across firms, a severe limitationSamplei
(+/-) 10% range, which would have been for and 0.74 for Out-of-Samplei data.
any study that requires estimates of firm-
desirable. The lowest percentage frequency
level employment.
in this range is reported by the asi meas- 5 Estimation using Alternate
Measures of Labour
However, for the estimation of total
ure for both groups of firms as against the
asi productivity (tfp) that requiresLog-linear
factor
cmie measure. A large fraction of the the formulations of the Cobb-Douglas
measure and the Predicted Employmentestimation of the production function production function are estimated using
ols, si
Table 6: Correlation Matrix
Samplel
mark, on tne cross section
Numberof data for 2008-09, for the
CMIEMeasure
Employees Employment Employees Employment
as Reported Estimates as Reported Estimates actual number of employees
and the alternate measures
Number of employees as reported in Prowess
of labour computed above.
In addition, compensation
CMIE measure
to employees is also used as

ASI measure
Predicted employment estimates
Source: a proxy for labour.

Prowess3.1 d
Table 7: Estimates of the Labour Coefficients using Actual Number of Employees and Alternate Measures of Labour/Compensation to Labour
Alternate Labour Measures Used in the Regressions
Dependent Variable
Gross Output (log) Value Added (log) Gross Output (log)
I Number of Employees as reported in Prowess (log)
II CMIE measure (log)

III ASI measure (log) .243*** (.025) .702*** (.052) .306*** (.032) .640*** (.052)
IV Predicted Employment estimates (log)
V Compensation to employees (log)
Regressions include:
Foreign equity holding
Industry dummies (two-digit)
Observations
Standard errors
Source: Prowess
For the gross-output based production Samplei, for both gross output and value This note is unable to find a technique
function,24 GO is gross output (sales plus added formulations. The use of these esti- that dominates the rest in terms of yield-
change in stock of finished and unfinished mates in production function estimation ing estimates of labour coefficients that
goods), L is labour input (that varies for thus points to a potential collinearity lie close to those from the actual data.
alternate labour measures), К is the capi- problem between labour and capital. Each measure has its own problems. Our
tal stock (gross fixed assets), M is raw results, however, highlight the strengths
materials and E is power and fuel. Matrix 6 Concluding Comments and weaknesses of each approach.
D is a set of fixed effects for foreign equity Studies on firm-level productivity based
holding and industry (at the two-digit on Indian corporate data have thus far NOTES
level), e is the (exponential) error term. formed their measures of the number of 1 Full-time equivalent jobs (or persons) are the
number of total hours worked divided by average
employees using the Asi-based approach or annual hours actually worked in full-time jobs,
In GO = a + ßL In L + ßK In К + ßM In M + wherein part-time employed persons are counted
the compensation to employees approach.
ßE In E + Ô.D + s with a smaller weight than persons working
Predicted employment as in Lancheros full-time.
A value added formulation is also esti- and Girma (2009) is a relatively new 2 The Prowess data field "number of employees",
covered under miscellaneous disclosures, reports
mated with VA as value added: methodology that has not yet been applied those who are on the payroll of the company as at
widely. Robustness checks of these meas- the end of the corresponding financial year. As per
In VA = a + ßL In L + ßK In К + ô.D + e Prowess 4 data description, available at http://
ures with the actual data are hard to find. prowess.cmie.com accessed on 23 October 2011,
Table 7 (p 73) reports estimates of the In the above exercises, the different "this data field captures the number of people
employed by the company ... Less than 10% of the
labour coefficient /?Lfrom these two speci- methodologies that impute/estimate the companies provide information on the number
of employees they have. This is not mandatory.
fications.25 Although the coefficients for the number of employees, or use compensation
Public sector companies always provide this infor-
alternate measures of labour are upward to employees as a proxy for labour, are mation. Large IT companies and banks disclose
this information. Many others also do provide
biased in relation to the coefficients using compared to the data on actual employment.
such information. These are mostly large compa-
the actual data, and the upward bias is Comparing the quantity measures of the nies. Usually, if a company discloses the number
of employees it has, then it does so for all years . . .
higher using the value added formulation, labour input, our search amongst the With Indian companies increasing their footprint
the coefficients for labour do not differ alternate measures reveals that the cmie globally, the number of employees engaged by a
company is not necessarily in India. They could be
markedly if the compensation to employees measure that relies on the internal wage anywhere in the world. Since the disclosure on
is used in place of the cmie or asi measures rate from amid the more represented, large, employment is not mandatory, there are no guide-
lines and therefore no standards regarding this
of the number of employees. listed companies in the Prowess database disclosure. Different companies follow different
Using deflated wages as a proxy for the does as well as the hitherto followed definitions of employment. Some companies only
provide the total employment in all group com-
labour input, Dougherty et al (2009) esti- methodologies but has the advantage overpanies, some for only consolidated accounts and
mate the Cobb-Douglas production func- the asi measures in that it can be appliedothers disclose employment in stand-alone com-
panies also. Often, it does not disclose the cover-
tion for all manufacturing firms, unlike to the services industry firms as well.age. This can be inferred sometimes from the way
the information is made available."
our samples that are only for firms report- However, that very few firms report the
3 For instance, the availability of data on the "number
ing their actual number of employees. number of employees at a particular three-of employees" as reported in CMIE (2011) Prowess
Their estimates of the labour coefficient digit level could imply that the average wage4 Database Dictionary (as per CMIE industrial
classification), for 2008-09 for instance, as a per-
on the 1990-2005 panel of firm data from rate computed from them is unrepresenta-centage of the total number of firms, is 6.6% for
Prowess are somewhat close to our ols all industry, 9.5% for manufacturing, 16.7% for
tive for the remaining firms in the industry
mining, 5.7% for electricity, 5.3% for services
estimates of the coefficient using compen-
that do not disclose their employment. (other than financial), 3.4% for construction and
real estate and 0.3% for financial services.
sation to employees (log). They report theasi measures are based on average
(Author's calculations based on Prowess 4 Data-
labour coefficient to be 0.211 for the gross
emoluments per employee that are muchbase Dictionary accessed from http://prowess.
cmie.com on 28 July 2011).
output formulation and 0.629 for the
lower than those from the cmie samples.
4 Persondays worked (as defined in ASI) are obtained
value added formulation. However, despite these reservations andby summing up the number of persondays worked
The labour coefficient is estimated to be some descriptive statistics that are border-by persons working in each shift over all the shifts
on all days, i e, both manufacturing and non-
much higher with the Predicted Employ- ing on the extreme, the asi measure seemsmanufacturing days. This figure excludes persons
who are paid but remain on leave, strike, etc.
ment estimates in both the gross output to do as well as the other measures in
5 From the number of persondays worked, availa-
formulation as well as in the value added terms of the estimates of the labour coef- ble in ASI, personhours are taken as persondays
multiplied with eight hours (Beena 2008).
formulation, for both Samplei and Out-of- ficients of the production function, quite
6 In Prowess, "compensation to employees" includes
Samplei firms. The Predicted Employ- likely due to log transformations. payments made in cash or kind by a company to or
ment estimates of labour are based on a on behalf of all its employees. This is also referred to
Although the descriptive statistics for as the total wage bill or employee cost of labour.
regression on assets that could be taken as Predicted Employment estimates are com-7 A recent study by Das (2011) is the only one that
capital. Testing for multicollinearity onparable to that of the alternates, the Pre- has used the number of employees as given in
Prowess as a measure of the labour input.
the basis of the Variance Inflation Factor dicted Employment estimates have the 8 Compensation of Employees (Total Emoluments:
(vif)26 across regressions based on alter- lowest correlation with the actual data (as ASI) is the total of emoluments and supplement to
emoluments.
nate measures of labour yielded vif valuesreported in Table 6), yield large coeffi- 9 Total Persons Engaged (ASI) relate to all persons
of greater than 10 for labour and capital cients for labour and reveal collinearity engaged by the factory whether for wages or not,
in work connected directly or indirectly with the
for Predicted Employment estimates in issues between labour and capital. manufacturing process.
^ January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 mavì Economic & Political weekly
io As indicated in Panel A of Table 2, some authors Basant, Nagaraj,
Rakesh and Pr
Br
have taken persondays or personhours instead of of R&D,Export
Foreign T
Part
total persons engaged and computed the average Domestic versity
and of
InternN
wage rate accordingly. tivity in (http://web
Indian Firm
il Deaton (2008) considers the issue of "plutocratic" and %2oNagara
Statistics, 78(2):
as against "democratic" weights in the context of Beena, 2oexport%2
Saraswathy (2
food price indexes. Firms Pant,
under Man
Merger
12 Under the ASI frame, units with 100 or more "Corporate
Experience", Centre fo
workers are covered under the census sector on 25 Study
Septemberof I
201
while the remaining units (with some exceptions) Finance, 9(
edu.my/upload/43-i/
are covered on a sampling basis. Cameron, Parameswar
Colin A and
13 I am grateful to Aditya Bhattacharjea for this per- nical
econometrics Chan
Using S
Evidence fr
spective on the average wage rates in the "ASI- Centre for Monitorin
Prowess Indian
Version Econ
4 (
based approach" in contrast to the "CMIE-based
approach", discussed in Section 3 (A). ary, Patibandla,
available at http
Reforms an
14 With some exceptions, such as (NIC Code 58), Das, Ram Upendra (2
Trade andPolitical
Investm We
Publishing Activities.
RIS Petkova,
Discussion Ne
Pape
15 The approach based on employees' compensation
Performanc
http://www.ris.org.i
cannot be compared to actual employment, and is
therefore not relevant in this section. Ownership
Deaton, Angus (200
Dissertation
16 I am grateful to Prof Bishwanath Goldar for sug- Their Implications
on 25 Septe
gesting this approach. Economic & Political
edu/bitstre
17 2008-09 being the latest year for which the ASI Dougherty, Sean, Ric
Pattnayak,
data is available. (2009): "What Is H
Liberalisatio
18 Excluding the three-digit codes whose firms were Growth in India? R
by-Export",
not a part of the randomly drawn Samplei. Journal: Economic
on 9 Octobe
2009(1): 1-22, viewed
19 As the firms reporting their number of employees Epublicatio
may be very few at a particular three-digit level,
www.0ecd.0rg/data0
Ray, Saon (2
the average wage rate computed from them could Dua, Pami, Bishwanath
ciency of F
be unrepresentative for the remaining firms in (2011): "Foreign Direc
Political W
the industry that do not disclose their employ- Spillover:
An Evaluatio
Sasidharan,
ment. Pooling of similar three-digit industries to India", CDE Workin
ment and T
compute the average wage rate may then be of Economics, Delhi
the Indian
required. Alternately, the average wage rates Goldar, Bishwanath
Working P
could be obtained at the two-digit level as this is Banga (2004):
on 25
"Ow
Septe
also observed to improve the correlation coeffi- Engineering Firm
publications/
cient between Samplei and Out-of-Samplei aver- Economic & Political
Saxena, Shis
age emoluments. This method may thus be more Hasan, Rana (2002): put: Eviden
appropriate for industries where a larger number Domestic Technologies
Discussion P
of firms report their number of employees. Panel Data Evidence
25 Septemb
20 For firms belonging to NIC Codes 102, 106, 108, Firms", JournaZ 0/ De
edu.au/unit
151, 182, 279, 325 the average wage rates were Kathuria, Vinish (200
shishir.pdf
computed from within Out-of-Samplei as firms Technology Transfer
Schoar, Ant
for the corresponding NIC codes were not picked
Journal of Internati
Diversifica
up in the randomly drawn Samplei. Kato, Atsushi (2009):
Finance, S7
21 ASI Summary Results for the Factory Sector, Productivity in
Schreyer,Indi
Pa
2008-09, Table 5: Estimate of some important Journal of
A Developm
Guide to
characteristics by three digit of NIC-2008. Krishna, Pravin and
Aggregate P
22 Note that the same three-digit ASI average wage Liberalisation, Mark
Monitor, N
rate is necessarily applied to both groups of firms. vity 2011 New
Growth: (http:/
Ev
23 For prediction in levels from a logarithmic model: of Development
Sharma, Econ
Cha
predicted number of employees = exp (In pre- Kumar, Sampath
DomesticT a
dicted number of employees)*exp (o.5*e (rmse) л 2), Chemicals Sector:
Indian MacA
(Cameron and Trivedi 2009). Economic Review,
& 45(
Political
24 Following notations as in Dougherty et al (2009). LancherosSiddhartha
Torres, S
25 The estimated coefficients of gross fixed assets, "Rate of MNE and P
Technology
raw materials and power and fuel in the different Production Organi
Economic &
regressions are not reported as the explicit focus from India", DRUID
Sivadasan,
is on the estimated labour coefficients. PhD Conference,
quences vi
of
26 VIF values greater than 10 indicate that the varia- evidence
(http://www2.druid f
ble could be considered as a linear combination of php?id=500790&cf=
Reforms",
other independent variables. at Series, Wor
(http://macr0fina
Girma-Delhi sgsl.pd
tember 201
dle/2027.42
Mahambare,Vidya and
REFERENCES (2005): "Trade Libe
Srivastava,
Arnold, facturing
Jens and
Matthais, Compe
Sector",
Beata JD
and tems
Aaditya 0505010,
Mattoo Econ
facturing
(2010): ,
"S
2011
Manufacturing (http://i29.3.
Srivastava,
Performance: E
CEPR 0505010.pdf).
Discussion (2001):
Papers, The
8011
Majumdar, Industrial
Rumki
atwww.cepr.0rg/pubs/dps/D an
"Role
Balakrishnan, of tiveness:
Managemen
Pulapre, К A
Push
Babu mining
(2000): "Trade 97, Liberali
Report,
Technolog
Efficiency Research,
in IndianN
tivity Growth in Manufactu
Firm-Level Panel Topalova,
Proceedings/ Projec
Data", Ec
Weekly, viewed
35(41): Firm
on 9
3679-82. Prod
October
Balakrishnan, tional
in/pdf/publication/
Pulapre, M Mone
Par
gadan Mazumdar,
and M Suresh viewed
Babu on
Mainak,(20
Market Chandra
Power, and 0rg/extern
Ray (2010):
Productivi
Industry", the Topalova,
The Efficiency
Journal of of P
In
Policy
Banga, CSH
Rashmi alisation
Occasional
(2004): a
Pape
"Impa
FDI on on 9
Productivity India",
October
Growth: The
2011A (
& 93(3):
Political 995-
Economic publications/downl
Weekly,
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Mining in Goa:
(2) The ncaer report claims that in 2004-05,
mining employed directly and indirectly
Beyond Forest Issues

about 75,000 workers of the state's work-
force of 5,82,274. This is close to estimated
tourism employment of 84,150 (ibid: 18).
(3) The opportunity cost of giving up the
RAHUL BASU iron ore industry would be greater than
the cost of environmental losses (ibid: 43).
This comm
the Mining Share of GSDP: The anticipation
Kadekodi ("Missing the Woods for
Wood
Pranab KadekodithetheOre:Ore:Goa'Mukhopadhyay Goa's ("Missing Development the and Woods Myopia", Gopal for К
s Development Myopia", of ncaer's report that the iron ore price
Developm
rise is permanent is rather optimistic as
EPW, 12 November 2011) (mg hereafter)
Mukhopad
have critiqued a report on mining in Goa commodity prices are cyclical. The iron ore
Kadekodi
by the National Council of Applied Eco- market is highly concentrated with a few
nomic Research (ncaer) (2010) for using large buyers and sellers. The big buyers are
Study on
incorrect methodology in comparing for- steel manufacturers in China, Japan and
Industry"
Korea. The big iron ore suppliers are Rio
est's values and mining deposits. We feel
the
that mg's critique omits some other defi- Natio
Tinto, вир Billiton and Vale. For nearly 40
Economic
ciencies in the report of ncaer that have years, the buyers and sellers had negotiated
important implications. to set long-term iron ore prices. However,
as commodity demand surged in 2007, this
Ethical Concerns arrangement broke down and prices rose
sharply
One important gap in mg is the discussion of in January 2008 (Handique 2007).
research ethics, ncaer should also have Sesa Goa, the largest Goan iron ore ex-
freely disseminated its report through its porter contributed 35% of Goa's iron ore
website or priced it reasonably for inter- exports in 2009-10 (gmoea 2010: 5).
ested readers. Instead, the 62-page report is The annual report of Sesa Goa states
priced at Rs 1,000, ensuring that an average that "...supply-side constraints of the past
concerned citizen does not buy it. Further, are expected to change by 2014. ...What
as a leading Indian economic think tank, this means is that. . ..The world may see an
ncaer should have followed international over-supply condition by 2014 at the macro
best practice (McCullough and McKitrick level...".2 In other words, the leading in-
2009) and placed both the source data dustry player expects iron ore will be in
and their calculations in the public domain oversupply in a few years resulting in a
for independent verification and analysis. steep drop in prices. Further, Goan export
This comment, therefore, raises larger price per tonne dropped by 33% between
questions on the need for a code of ethics 2007-08 and 2008-09 from Rs 3,017 per
by professional organisations.1 tonne to Rs 2,012 per tonne (derived from
port-wise iron ore export data, ncaer
Methodological Issues 2010: 18). Clearly, there is an expectation
The three principal conclusions of ncaer in the iron ore industry that the demand-
(2010) are: supply imbalance will soon be bridged.
(1) Mining contributes around 5% of Goa's Thus, ncaer's price expectations are
gross state domestic product (gsdp) when poorly informed and iron ore should be
measured at constant 1999-2000 prices. The expected to maintain its contribution at
price of world iron ore increased sharply around 5% of Goa's gsdp as anticipated by
in January 2008. The ncaer report (2010) the constant price series of Goa govern-
re-estimates the share of mining in Goa's ment's Directorate of Planning, Statistics
gsdp and anticipates this to be the long- and Evaluation (dpse).
The author
term contribution assuming that the higher ncaer's calculations to create this input- w
inputs
iron prices are permanent. At current from
output table have not been placed in the
Sudiptapublic domain. Basu
There seem to be several
(2007-08) prices, this would imply a direct
Rahul Basu
as well as indirect contribution by mining inconsistencies. For example, see Table A2 (
founder (ncaer: 56). and
of 16.94% of gsdp (ibid: 26).
Economic & Political weekly 0ВШ
DISCUSSION
people
(i) On the cost side, transportation is taken (gmoea 2010: 5). Goan iron ore exports in
to usually working in Goan mining
be 9%, whereas the financial statements
andof 2008-09 were 83.3% of that in 2009-10
quarrying is 3,412, plus hired workers
numbering
Sesa Goa show that 49% of the expense (for 3,161, totalling to 6,573.(ibid:
For 1). By extrapolating the Sesa Goa
reasons
the company as a whole) is for transporta- unstated, ncaer ignoresemployment
this figure we get total direct em-
tion.3 (2) Rows indicate the estimatedofficial
out- data source. ployment of 5,416 (= 2,277 X 2.85 X 0.833).
ncaer
put allocated according to uses, including also uses estimates for direct
final demand, ncaer estimates thatand
45% Indirect Employees: gmoea estimates
indirect employment from mining
from
of the mining output is consumed in total indirect employment to be at 1:1 ratio
Goaits funding agency gmoea. There are
(Table A2). Unlikely users include few
con-explanations or sources provided for
with direct employment. In the absence of
gmoea's
struction (13%) and electricity, gas and estimates of 75,000. Our own cal-
any other indicators, we use gmoea's ratio
culations
water supply (13%). In reality, almost all on Goa's mining employment to estimate that indirect employment in
mining is 5,416.
suggest that the total employment (direct
Goan iron ore is exported - gmoea reports
it as over 100% (gmoea 2010: 1). and indirect) would not exceed 21,873.
ncaer then calculates the following Truck Transportation: We assume that a
results for the multipliers: Direct Employment: In 2009-10, Sesa Goa
truck traverses 5,000 km a month, for seven
Table; Multipliers Estimated by NCAER monthsin
had 2,691 employees based of the year (non-monsoon), and
Key Sectors Only Value Output Employment Employment Income
Goa.6 We add another 1,200
carries 10 tonnes.8 Goa exported 38.075 mn
Addition Multiplier Multiplier (Person Years Multiplier
(Person Years of Calculated) tonnes in 2008-09 (gmoea 2010: 1) and
employees of V S Dempo,
Per Lakh of Output
which was acquired by Sesa road linkage from the mine to
the average
Mining and quarrying 0.7787 1.45
Goa during the year7 total-
the river loading point is 30 km,9 arriving
Agriculture 0.7262 1.52 3.41 2,73,970 1.02 at a total
ling 3,891 employees. This inof 228 million truck kilometres.
Manufacturing
cludes employees in a The overburden is 2.3 times more than the
variety
Construction
Trade, hotels
production.10
of non-mining activities such Assuming the average truck
and restaurants 0.7543 1.44 0.76 1,36,183 0.99 as pig iron, metallurgical
run is 2 km for the overburden, we get 18
Source: NCAER 2010 (pp 10, 26 and 57). mn truck km for overburden. Total truck
coke and ship-building/ship
yards,
The income multiplier shows us theastotal
well as employees for operatingtransportation is 246 mn truck km. Based
direct and indirect value addition due to vehicles, river fleet, aircraft and ships.on 35,000 km per annum per truck (a very
increase in one unit of output. Alarmingly,Sesa's iron ore segment's operational ex-conservative utilisation level for a com-
if we were to use the ncaer (2010) methodo-
pense was 80.5% of the total operational
mercial vehicle), we get 7,028 trucks.
expenses and 72.7% of the total iron ore
logy, manufacturing would be responsible In 2005, there were 55,119 commercial
for 108% Of GSDP.4 vehicles in Goa11 and an estimated 63,000
was in Goa. If we were to proportionately
Even if these multipliers accurately rep-estimate employment to only Goan ironpeople employed in transportation.12 The
resent the Goan economy, ncaer's calcu- ore (73%), we get a figure of 2,277 latter figure includes buses with conductors.
lations suggest that (1) the mining em-(=3,89i*.805*733). We, therefore, estimate one direct employee
ployment multiplier is the lowest among The Goan iron ore industry exported 2.85per truck and the total employed on trucks
all other leading sectors. (2) The income
times that of Sesa and Dempo in 2009-10as 7,028. Lacking another methodology,
multiplier is lower than agriculture and
trade, hotels and restaurants (tourism). Economic&PoliticalwEEKLY
Employment: The ncaer report would
PERSPECTIVES ON CASH TRANSFERS
like the reader to believe that mining is a May 21,2011
large contributor to employment in Goa.
A Case for Reframing the Cash Transfer Debate in India - Sudha Narayanan
Initially, ncaer arrives at direct employ-
Mexico's Targeted and Conditional Transfers: Between Oportunidades and Rights - Pablo Yanes
ment using data from the National Sample Brazil's Bolsa Família: A Review - Fabio Veras Soares
Survey 61st Round 2004-05. In the process,
Conditional Cash Transfers as a Tool of Social Policy - Francesca Bastagli
ncaer oddly assumes "the population in
Cash Transfers as the Silver Bullet for Poverty Reduction: A Sceptical Note - Jayati Ghosh
rural areas to be insignificant in Goa"
PDS Forever? - Ashok Kotwal, Milind Murugkar,
(ncaer 2010: 17). Interestingly, nsso itself Bharat Ramaswami
estimates that 61.5% of Goans reside in Impact of Biometrie Identification-Based Transfers - Arka Roy Chaudh
rural areas (goi 2005: A-5 and A-7). How- The Shift to Cash Transfers: Running Better But on the Wrong Roa
ever, ncaer concludes that the labour
force directly employed in mining and For copies write to:
quarrying is 19,000, out of a total Goan Circulation Manager,
labour force of 5,82,000. Economic and Political Weekly,

320-321, A to Z Industrial Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel, M
Contrarily, the Fifth Economic Census
in 20055 reports that the total number of
January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 ЦЩЗ Economic & Political WEEKLY
we use gmoea's scale factor of 25% of 26.3922%. Adjusting for this, we get a de- of M
view
truck transportation to estimate Goan pletion cost of Rs 1,518.38 crore. Sesa's gov.i
employment in garages, etc, as 1,757. production in 2008-09 was 41.9958% of 10 "M
Gover
the total Goan iron ore exports (gmoea (http
Barge Transportation: The number of 2010: 1 and 21). We, therefore, calculate a 11 See DPSE (2005a).
barges in Goa in 2009 was 300 (gmoea total depletion cost of Rs 3,615.55 crore 12 See DPSE (2005b).
13 "Tugboats", Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia,
2010: 13). Only 83.5% of the iron ore (=1,518.38 41.9958%), which is much in viewed on 11 July 2011, (http://en.wikipedia.org/
exported from Goa was of Goan origin excess of the annual social benefits of wiki/Tugboat).
14 "Barge Capsizes Near MPT Crew Rescued",
(gmoea 2010: 1). Therefore, 251 barges were Rs 2,309.5 crore (ncaer 2010: 43). O Heraldo (19 March 2011), "Loaded Barge Capsizes
used for transporting Goan iron ore. at MPT", The Times of India, 20 March 2009,
Articulated tugs and barges are reported Implications for State Policy viewed on 27 June 2011, http://articles.timesofin-
dia.indiatimes.c0m/2009-03-20/g0a/28017448_1_
to have seven to nine crew members.13 The The inescapable conclusion is that mining
barge-owner-bad-weather-mpt.
15 P 121, Annual Report 2009-10, Sesa Goa, Panaji,
last two capsized Goan iron-ore barges should be stopped, or at least drastically
viewed on 26 June 2011 (http://www.sesagoa.com/
reported seven employees each.14 Direct curtailed, in Goa. The state policy should
attachments/article/ii5/Sesa%2oGoa%2oLtd%2o
Full%2oVersion%2o ARFY2010.pdf).
employment on 251 barges would, there- take into account a likely steep decline in
16 Cost of capital = Rs 108.32 crore (Rs 902.69 * 12%).
fore, be 1,754. Supervision for 251 barges iron ore prices in the near future. Goa Total return on capital + depreciation is Rs 143.27
could be considered as two per barge or needs better studies in environmental crore (108.32+34.95). Depletion cost is Rs 2,206.07
crore - Rs 143.27 crore = Rs 2,062.80 crore.
502 supervisors. management that not only use state-of-
Summing-up the estimates above, we the-art methods, but also maintain the
REFERENCES
arrive at a bottom-up employment figure highest standards in research ethics.

DPSE (2005a): Statistical Hand Book of Goa 2003-
of only 21,873 (5,416 + 5,416 + 7,028 + ncaer (2010) report is unacceptable onand 2004-05, Department of Planning, Statistics a
Evaluation, Government of Goa, Panaji, viewed o
1,757 + 1,754 + 502). As mining stops dur- both these dimensions. 26 June 2011 (http://goadpse.gov.in/publications
dpse-g0a-stathandb00k0304-0405.pdf).
ing the monsoon, all of the transportation Closure of mining, by our calculations,
- (2005b): Report on Fifth Economic Census , Depar
employment and most of the direct min- would affect a resident population of ment of Planning, Statistics and Evaluation, Gov
ing employment are seasonal and manned about 5,500 (about 0.9% of Goa's labour ernment of Goa, Panaji, viewed on 26 June 201
(http://goadpse.gov.in/publications/goa-eco-
by migrant workers. Assuming that only force). Finding alternative employment census-report-2005 .pdf) .
50% of the direct mining employment is may be much easier than what ncaer and GMOEA (2010): "GMOEA Selected Statistics 2009-1
Goa Mineral Ore Exporters Association, Panaji.
in categories that persist during the mon- gmoea would have us believe. A state
Handique, Maitreyee (2007): "NDMC Effects He
soons, the real core employment of Goa is which is growing at over 10% per annum
Increase in Ore Prices", Livemint, 29 Decembe
unlikely to exceed 5,500 (rounding up in real terms should be able to absorb theviewed on 26 June 2011.
McCullough, Bruce D and Ross McKitrick (2009):

from 5,416 above). displaced workers in other sectors. Check the Numbers: The Case for Due Diligence in
Policy Formation, Fraser Institute, Vancouver.
NCAER (2010): "A Study of Goan Iron Ore Mining
Social Benefits: Since ncaer's third con- notes Industry", National Council of Applied Economic
clusion has been critiqued intensively by 1 Research, New Delhi.
Tilman
in Econom
NSSO (2005): National Sample Survey Report 515: Em-
mg, we focus on estimating only the social ployment and Unemployment Situation in India,
sites.goog
cost due to depletion of natural reserves. 2 2004-05, National Sample Survey Organisation,
Annua
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implemen-
viewed o
We will use the net price methodology tation, Government of India, New Delhi, viewed
com/atta
used by the World Bank (wb 1997: 8). This on 26 June (http://www.mospl.gov.in/mospi_
Ltd%2oF
3 See nsso_rept_pubn.htm). Not
is easy to measure but can give an upward
4 OH (2011): "Barge Capsizes Near MPT Crew Rescued",
Mining
bias in a high-price environment. In essence, O Heraldo, 19 March, viewed on 27 June 2011, N
prices.
(http://0herald0.in/news/main%20page%20news/
contribut
it calculates the price of the iron ore minus
Barge-capsizes-near-MPT-crew-rescued/18902.
10.14=12
the cost of extraction, multiplied by the methodolhtml).
amount extracted. The cost of extraction of Sesa (2010a) : Annual Report 2009-10, Sesa Goa, Panaji,
SGDP.
viewed on 26 June 2011 (http://www.sesagoa.
0.82/0.24
includes the cost of capital. Society cap- 5 See com/attachments/article/ii5/Sesa%2oGoa%2o
DPS
tures some of this economic rent through 6 P Ltd%2oFull%2oVersion%2oARFY2oio.pdf).
29, S
- (2010b): Sustainability Report 2009-10, Sesa Goa,
Panaji, vi
royalties. Most of it is captured in the profit Panaji, viewed on 26 June 2011 (http://www.ses-
ag0a.c0m
before tax of the mining companies. %2opdf%ag0a.c0m/attachments/article/114/Sesa%20final
7 %2opdf%2ofor%2oweb%2oupload%2o.pdf).
Annual
In 2008-09, Sesa Goa reported profit TERI (2006): Environmental and Social Performance
on 26 Ju
before interest, tax, dividends and other Indicators and Sustainability Markers in Minerals
attachme
Development: Reporting Progress towards Improved
Full%2oV
non-recurring or non-allocable expenses Ecosystem Health & Human Well-being, Phase III,
8 Annexu
for the iron ore segment amounting to mance TERI Project Report No 2002WR41, TERI - Western In
Regional Centre, Goa.
Minerals
Rs 2,206.0 7 crore.15 Segment assets are
TOI (2009): "Loaded Barge Capsizes at MPT", The
Improved
R s 902.69 crore and depreciation is Rs 34.95 Times of India, 20 March.
ing", Pha
crore. Using a 12% cost of capital rate, we TERI
WB (1997): Expanding the Measure-of Wealth: Indi- W
26 Junecators of Environmentally Sustainable Develop-
calculate depletion cost at Rs 2,062.80 stream/i
ment, Environment Department, World Bank,
crore.16 Sesa's corporate tax rate was 9 Washington DC.
"Miner
Economic & Political weekly DB&S January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 79
mil а fl HAH Ж»Ч1 e EPW Research Foundation
The installed capacity in the power sector showed an acceleration in grow

accelerated from 2.4% to 5.6% during the same period. Energy short
10.4% during April to November 2011. On a longertime horizon, the per
Macroeconomic Indicators
. j 1. u «.«i. i . Variation (in i %): Point-to-Point

. Index j Numbers 1. u off «.«i. Wholesale i . Prices
(Base Year- 2004-05 = 100)л Weights 24 December Over Over 12 Months Fiscal Year So Far
Primary Articles 20.1 197.6 -0.9
Food Articles 14.3 190.0 -2.0
Non-Food Articles 4.3 178.7 0.6
Fuel & Power
Manufactured Products* 65.0 139.8 0.5
Food Products* 10.0 151.8 -0.1
Food Index (computed)* 24.3 178.4 -1.3
All Commodities (point to point basis)* 100.0 156.9 0.1
All Commodities (Monthly average basis)*
* Data pertain to the month of October 2011 as weekly release of data discontinued wef 24 Oct 2009. AThe date of first release of data based on 2004-05 series wef 14 September 2010.
Cost off Living Indices Latest Over Over 12 Months Fiscal Year So Far
Industrial Workers (IW) (2001=100)
Agricultural Labourers (AL) (1986-87=100)
Note: Superscript numeral denotes month to which figure relates, e g, superscript 1 1 stands for November.
Money and Banking (Rscrore) 16 December Over Month Over Year Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year
Money Supply (MJ
Currency with Public 988658 11274(1.2) 110178(12.5) 74461(8.1) 110987(14.5) 146704(19.1) 102043(15.3) 97040(17.1)
Deposits Money with Banks 6061282 26115(0.4) 891803(17.3) 479644(8.6) 338079(7.0) 750239(15.5) 707606(17.2) 683375(19.9)
of which: Demand Deposits 639029
Time Deposits 5422253
Net Bank Credit to Government
Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 4564910 78768(1.8) 642035(16.4) 329503(7.8) 431466(12.4) 743997(21.3) 476516(15.8) 435904(16.9)
Net Foreign Exchange Assets 1599554 14816(0.9) 228299(16.6) 206227(14.8) 89787(7.0) 111858(8.7) 367718 (-5.2) 57053(4.4)
Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 1325919 42486(3.3) 268948(25.4) 201238(17.9) 206369(24.3) 274078(32.2) -9050 (-1.1) 94672(
of which: RBI 612660
Reserve Money (30 December 201 1 ) 1394170 7751(0.6) 152370(12.3) 17350(1.3) 86150(7.5) 221195(19.1) 167688(17.0) 59696(6.4)
Net RBI Credit to Centre 450060 44007(-) 186070(-) 56030(-) 52410(-) 182453 149821 176397
Scheduled Commercial Banks (16 December 201 1)
Aggregate Deposits 5672592 25328(0.4) 866365(18.0) 464623(8.9) 313402(7.0) 715143(15.9) 658716(17.2) 637170(19.9)
Demand 559935 560(0.1) -18578(-3.2) -81770(-12.7) -67096(-10.4) -3905 (-0.6) 122525(23.4) -1224 (-0.2)
Time
Investments (for SLR purposes) 1678851 -35135(-2.0) 233308(16.1) 177232(11.8) 60791(4.4) 116867(8.4) 218342(18.7) 194694(20.0)
Bank Credit 4266983 77939(1.9) 622414(17.1) 324900(8.2) 399781(12.3) 697294(21.5) 469239(16.9) 413635(17.5)
Non-Food Credit 4184077 73746(1.8) 602030(16.8) 306278(7.9) 385749(12.1) 681500(21.3) 466961 (17.1) 411825(17.8)
Commercial Investments 173699 3051(1.8) 27255(18.6) 26098(17.7) 28373(24.0) 28872(24.5) 11654(11.0) 10911 (11.4)
Total Bank Assistance to Commi Sector
Note: Government Balances as on 31 March 2011 are after closure of accounts.
Index Numbers of Industrial Production October* Fiscal Year So Far Full Fiscal Year Averages
(Base 2004-05=100)
General Index 100.00 158.1-(5.1) 164.9(3.5) 159.3(8.7) 165.4(8.2) 152.9(5.3) 145.2(2.5) 141.7(15.5) 122.6(12.9)
Mining and Quarrying 14.157 120.9-(7.2) 122.0-(2.2) 124.8(7.0) 131.0(5.2) 124.5(7.9) 115.4(2.6) 112.5(4.6) 107.6(5.2)
Manufacturing 75.527 165.9-(6.0) 175.1(3.7) 168.9(9.4) 175.6(8.9) 161.3(4.8) 153.8(2.5) 150.1(18.4) 126.8(15.0)
Electricity 10.316 152.1(5.6) 148.8(8.8) 136.7(4.5) 138.0(5.6) 130.8(6.1) 123.3(2.8) 120.0(6.4) 112.8(7.3)
* Indices for the month are Quick Estimates
Capital Market Fiscal Year So Far 2010-11
BSE Sensitive Index (1978-79=100) 15868(-21.4) 16805 20185(14.0) 15175 19702 16022 21005 19445(10.9) 17528(80.5) 9709(-37.9)
BSE-100 (1983-84=100) 8142(-22.5) 8685 10509(11.7) 7805 10262 8540 ÏÏÏ4Î 10096(8.6) 9300(88.2) 4943(-40.0)
BSE-200 (1989-90=100) 1902(-23.8) 2032 2495(12.0) 1824 2427 2034 2753 2379(8.1) 2200(92.9) 1140(-41.0)
S&P CNX Nifty (3 Nov 1995=1000) 4754(-21.4) 5039 6048(14.5) 4544 5912 4807 6312 5834(11.1) 5249(73.8) 3021(-36.2)
Skindia GDR Index (2 Jan 1995=1000) 2040(-38.1) 2115 3297(18.8) 1875 "1441 2477 3479 3151(9.3) 2883(134.2) 1153(-56.2)
Net Fll Investment in (US $ Mn Equities) - period end 101806(-0.5) 101925 102360(39.9) I I 101454(31.5) 77159(43.1) 51669(-18.6)
Foreign Trade November* Fiscal Year So Far " Full Fiscal Year
Exports: Rscrore 113520 893094(35.1)
US $ mn 22322 192694(33.2) 144660
Imports: Rscrore 182689 1435305(32.2) 1
us$mn 35922 309530(30.2) 237664(3
Non-POL US $mn(* Provisional figures) 25
Balance ofTrade: Rscrore -69169 -542211 -424725 -478047 -518202 -533680 -356449 -268727 -203991 -12572~Г
* Provisional figures.
Foreign Exchange Reserves (excluding
gold but including revaluation effects) 30 Dec 31 Dec 31 Mar Fiscal Year So Far
Rscrore
US$mn
Figures in brackets are percentage variati

[Comprehensive current economic statisti
80
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January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 E93S3
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/';-=09 )(8* =-0/']

Repairing the Lokpal Bill editorials

well-known campaigners. Dealing with a Deadly Killer

Looking beyond Durban: Where To From H

18 The "Protection of Women against Sexual Harassment

Some Thoughts on the Macroeconomi

22 The economics syllabi in Indian universities since Independence first co

Inflation: Sources, Challenges and Policy Option

Satyadev Dubey: Director o

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Measuring Labour Input from Company Databases -Rahul Basu

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The Tender Mercies of Mamata

economic use. Whether it is colleges or offices, theatre spaces or

The Lokpal and the CBI

Seventh Schedule to the Constitution is

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Looking beyond Durban:

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January 21, 2012 vol XLVii no 3 УШ Economic & Political WEEKLY

articulation of the Cancun agreements-

Against Women's Rights

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(iv) Exclusion of Domestic Workers from

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Some Thoughts on the to follow a heterodox approach is always

Macroeconomics Curriculum It is interesting to note that the current

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like the enthusiastic teaching of new

The country witnessed great change dur-

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Kakatiya University in Andhra PradeshJussawalla, Meheroo (1969): Economics of Develop-

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Economic & Political weekly Ш1 January 21, 2012 vol xlvii no 3 ^9

Monetary Tightening: regarded demand-supply imbalances and

desired impact on inflation, though supply-side to bring forth more the

Greece Crisis: The Story of the

The Greek allow for people

theireffectiveness of central leadership

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