Global Production Report 2018

www.iogp.
org
Global
Production
Report 2018
Photo: BP p.l.c.
Contents
Operating regions 4
Oil production in Africa 6

Production shrinks but still meets demand
Gas production in Africa 8

Demand outpaces production
Oil production in Asia Pacific 10

Growing imports for the world’s biggest oil consumer
Gas production in Asia Pacific 12

Rising demand stimulates production growth
Oil production in CIS 14

Exporting almost 10 million barrels per day
Gas production in CIS 16

The biggest global gas exporter
Oil production in Europe 18

New dynamics; encouraging prospects
Gas production in Europe 20

European production remains stable as demand rebounds
Oil production in the Middle East 22

Full-throttle for the world’s biggest producers
Gas production in the Middle East 24

A 40-year growth trend continues
Oil production in North America 26

Reducing the import bill
Gas production in North America 28

Another all-time high for the region’s biggest producer
Oil production in Central & South America 30

Brazil overtakes Venezuela
Gas production in Central & South America 32

Regional gas production proliferates
Photo: BP p.l.c.
IOGP Production Report 2018
A look at regional supply of – and demand for –
oil and gas the world over
Energy is vital for human progress. The demand for energy continues
to rise as the world population grows in numbers (7.5 billion now to
9 billion in 2040) and prosperity increases. Oil and gas are collectively
the leading energy sources in the energy mix. Today, they provide more
than half of world’s energy; and according to the International Energy
Agency’s most likely energy scenario, they will be equally important in
the year 2040.
IOGP member companies produce 40% of the world’s oil and gas.
They operate in all producing regions: Africa, Asia/Pacific, the CIS,
Europe, the Middle East, North America and Central and South America.
This report looks at production and demand figures for each
of these regions for both oil and gas. These data are drawn from the
BP Statistical Review of World Energy of June, 2017.
For each of the regions, we have devised an IOGP Production Indicator©

for oil and gas. It shows to what degree a region can meet its own
demand. While IOGP supports global trade, we also recognize the
advantages that come with indigenous production of oil and gas. These
include greater prosperity and enhanced security of supply.
Complementing our analysis are projections for each region. Some

are based on publicly available material. Others represent the views of
IOGP member companies and organizations and specialists from the
Association’s secretariat.
Both oil and gas production are globally at all-time high levels.
Production does, however, vary significantly between regions, as this
reports highlights.
A fact common to all is that existing oil and gas fields are depleting by
about 6% per year. Against the backdrop of increasing demand in many
regions, continuous investment is needed just to keep up.
IOGP is grateful for the data and insights that our members
have provided for this report. Based on this information, our
analysis demonstrates the need for further responsible oil
and gas investment in each of the seven regions covered.
Gordon Ballard
Executive Director
Operating regions
Key:
1 Africa
2 Asia Pacific
3 Europe
4 Middle East
5 North America
6 CIS
7 Central & South America
The map above shows the division of the world into

seven regions.
The delineation of zones is not intended to reflect

offshore boundaries.
6
IOGP Production Indicator© (PI)

The IOGP Production Indicator© (PI) for oil is based on dividing daily production in thousands
of barrels (or, for gas, billion cubic metres per year) by demand. The PI indicates the level of
a region’s self-sufficiency (and export potential). A PI above 100% demonstrates the ability to
export; below 100% shows the need to import.
Oil production in Africa
Photo: © Pascal Laurent/Total

Production shrinks but still meets demand
Africa’s oil Production Indicator has fallen from 344% to 200% in just 10 years
Africa can still export about half of its production supremacy in African oil production was
of 8 million barrels per day. Due to steadily confirmed by 2011, when Libyan production
rising local demand and a shrinking indigenous collapsed. Today, Libya’s oil output is close to
production, the export potential decreased from zero and Nigeria produces 26% of Africa’s oil.
7 million barrels per day in 2006 to 4 million Nearest in volume are Angola, which accounts
barrels per day in 2016. for 23% of African production and Algeria, which
produces 20%. A look at Africa’s production
Initially, North Africa was the centre of history since 2005 shows five years of stagnation
production, with Libya as the dominant player followed by a dramatic drop coinciding with the
by far. By the early 1970s, however, Nigeria global recession that began in 2009. Political
began to rival Libya in terms of volume – and and social turmoil has also inhibited production
by the mid-1980s surpassed it. Nigeria’s in some parts of the region.
Production: a shift from north to west Demand: steadily rising

Oil production in kbd by country Oil demand in kbd by country
12000 12000
Nigeria kicks off Libya close to zero
10000 10000
8000 8000
6000 6000
4000 4000
2000 2000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Algeria Angola Chad Republic of Congo Egypt Equatorial Guinea Gabon
Libya Nigeria South Africa South Sudan Sudan Tunisia Other Africa
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
6
Oil production in Africa
A rapid decline in self-sufficiency

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Africa’s PRODUCTION
900% INDICATOR FOR OIL
800%
is down to
200%
Regional export potential
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100% While Africa can still export half of its production,
0% this is a significant decline from just a decade ago
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 and IOGP calculations
In terms of demand, Egypt has long taken the Oil production in Africa still has significant
lead, followed by South Africa and Algeria. The potential with the three biggest producers –
most dramatic growth in demand, however, has Nigeria, Angola and Algeria – having more than
come collectively from the rest of Africa, with 95 billion barrels of proved reserves among
economic progress in East and West Africa in them. Once stability returns to Libya, what was
particular helping to drive the increased need once Africa’s largest producer will be able to
for oil. Political progress in several nations draw on 48 billion barrels of proved reserves.
has also contributed to greater confidence and
prosperity – conditions that generally encourage
greater demand for oil.
Overall, regional oil demand has increased by

a factor of seven since 1965. More recently, the
rate of increase between 2005 and 2015 was
2.9% per year. Since 2006, demand is up by 35%.
The future for oil in Africa: potential for production growth

Africa will remain an important source of oil for its own use and for export.
In addition to the current top three producers, several African nations look promising. These include:
• E
gypt, Africa’s largest non-OPEC producer
• M
orocco, where a more favourable fiscal regime could encourage investment in exploration and production
• S
enegal, with significant offshore oil discoveries in recent years
• U
ganda, which hopes to attract investment to explore the largest onshore sub-Saharan oil finds in decades
to attract further exploration investment
7
Gas production in Africa
Photo: © paulprescott72/iStockphoto
Demand outpaces production
In a decade, Africa’s gas Production Indicator has dropped from 215% to 150% –
a trajectory that could mean the region becomes a net importer by 2030
Africa’s gas production has plateaued in the producers: Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria. In the
past decade. At the same time, gas demand 1990s, Algeria accounted for 70% of Africa’s gas
has increased by 50%, significantly reducing the production. After 2000, Egypt and Nigeria joined
region’s export potential. Whereas Africa was the ranks of significant producers. Today, Algeria
able to export more than half of its gas in 2006, still is Africa’s top gas producer, accounting for
this potential is now down to one third. 44% of the region’s output – Nigeria and Egypt
each produce about 20%. Since reaching a peak
Africa holds more than 500 trillion cubic feet in 2009, however, Egypt’s gas production has
of proven gas reserves and has three main gas decreased by about a third.
Production: in the doldrums Demand: Egypt drives a strong increase

Gas production in Bcm by country Gas demand in Bcm by country
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Algeria Egypt Libya Nigeria South Africa Other Africa
8
Gas production in Africa
Quickly falling export potential

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Africa’s
300% PRODUCTION
INDICATOR FOR GAS is
150%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50% The Production Indicator is down from 215% in

2006. The region now consumes two thirds of its
0% produced gas, compared to about 45% in 2006.
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
While overall Africa’s production remains flat, Conscious of rising demand for gas within
indigenous demand for African gas continues the region and for export, the main producing
to rise. Whereas Algeria has a history of stable nations have succeeded in attracting exploration
demand dating back to the 1980s, demand in investment. This has led to some positive
Egypt has risen by more than 40% since 2006 results, notably in Algeria.
– making it the African nation with the highest
gas demand, accounting for 37% of the region’s
requirements. Algeria comes second with 29%.
The future for gas in Africa: new potential

“Africa is rich in natural resources, and gas is no exception. As the largest oil & gas investor in the
continent, Eni is producing gas across the region: from Ghana to Egypt, from Congo to Mozambique,
where offshore resources are very promising.
Last December – less than two and a half years after discovering it – we started production from
Zohr, the largest natural gas discovery in the Mediterranean, offshore Egypt, an area which may hold
further potential.
This year we will start production from the OCTP block in Ghana, and the whole gas will be destined
to the domestic market, guaranteeing 15 years of stable and reliable supply for the country’s power
generation. The whole West Africa is an area of interest for gas exploration and production.
Gas is giving Africa a valuable opportunity to support economic growth by building a more
sustainable energy mix. It can effectively help bring energy to the many people who still lack basic
access to it, while triggering a real industrial development.”
Antonio Vella, Chief Upstream Officer, Eni
9
Oil production in Asia Pacific
Photo: © LeeYiuTung/iStockphoto
Growing imports for the world’s biggest
oil consumer
Asia Pacific’s oil Production Indicator is down to 24% – its lowest ever – which means
three quarters of the region’s oil must come from elsewhere
The Asia Pacific region is the world’s biggest For the past 10 years, production levels in Asia
oil consumer and still growing. More than 35% Pacific have been static, hovering around 8
of global oil goes to this region – a larger share million barrels per day. The region’s biggest
than both North and South America combined. producer, China, has an output of 4 million
Since 1986, there has not been a year when the barrels per day. Though this is significant –
region’s oil production was able to keep up with about twice the oil output of Norway – it only
rising indigenous demand. Consequently, the meets a third of the nation’s own requirements.
Production Indicator declined from 56% (1986),
via 39% (1996) and 32% (2006) to 24% in 2016.
Production: a decade at around 8mbd Demand: a growing appetite for the world’s biggest consumer
35000 35000
30+ years accelerated increase
30000 30000
25000 25000
Indonesia volumes reducing
20000 20000
Thailand, Vietnam join
15000 15000
10000 10000
5000 5000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Australia Bangladesh Brunei China China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Japan Malaysia
New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia Pacific
10
Oil production in Asia Pacific
The biggest global importer

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Asia Pacific’s
60% PRODUCTION
INDICATOR FOR OIL is
24%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Since 1986, when the region’s Production Indicator
10%
was 56%, there has not been a year when oil
0% production has been able to keep pace with
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 demand increases.
Twenty years ago, China was able to produce seen consistent growth. China (including Hong
85% what was then much lower demand. There Kong) is the region’s biggest oil consumer, with
are several other key oil-producing nations in a share of 38%. The next highest demand is in
the region including Australia, India, Indonesia India (13%), followed by Japan (12%) and South
and Malaysia. None of them, however, is Korea (8%). Japan was once the region’s biggest
producing more than 1 million barrels per day. oil consumer. China overtook Japan in 2002 and
Vietnam and Thailand are smaller regional India took its place as number two in 2015.
producers.
For more than 30 years, overall demand for

oil in the region has risen dramatically. The
sharpest increase has been in China, which has
The future for oil in Asia Pacific: increasing production to help

meet rising demand
“As the fastest-growing economic engine in the world, Asia Pacific is increasingly driving global
demand for oil. In 2017, China overtook the USA to become the biggest oil importer due to strong
economic growth and accelerating motorization. As a result, China’s import dependence rose by
67.4%. After two-years of declining domestic production attributable to falling prices, oil producers
will ratchet up CAPEX to boost production in response to price recovery and stabilization in 2018.
Challenges here in China could be from the more stringent environmental and safety regulations
in the context of a New Era growth model that focuses on green issues and quality development.”
Qiu Zongjie, Vice President, CNOOC limited
11
Gas production in Asia Pacific
Photo: © Woodside Energy Ltd

Rising demand stimulates production growth
With a gas Production Indicator of 80%, Asia Pacific needs to import one fifth of its gas –
about 150 billion cubic metres a year
Until the mid-1990s, the Asia Pacific region Thanks to continuing investment in exploration
was able to satisfy 100% of its gas demand. and development, combined with improving
As demand rose significantly, particularly in technology, Asia Pacific has managed to
China, the Production Indicator decreased from increase its gas production by 4.1% per year
99% in 1996 to 90% in 2006 to today’s level of in the last decade. The biggest increases were
about 80%. Recent production increases, most in China (10%) and Australia (7%). China is the
notably in China, helped to keep the Production largest gas producer in Asia Pacific, followed by
Indicator at around the 80% level for the past Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia.
five years.
Production: China leads an upward trend Demand: China overtook Japan in 2009
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Australia Bangladesh Brunei China China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Myanmar
New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia Pacific
12
Gas production in Asia Pacific
From exporter to importer

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Asia Pacific’s
120% PRODUCTION
80%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20% The Production Indicator is down from 100% in the

1990s. Thanks to investment, recent production
0%
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
increases have helped to reverse a long-term decline.
Whereas China needs all its gas for its domestic which today consumes twice as much gas as
market, Australia (PI: 221%), Malaysia (PI 172%) Japan. Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
and Indonesia (PI: 185%) can export. Pakistan, South Korea and Thailand follow,
with each using between 5-7% of gas within the
Despite its position as the biggest gas producer region.
in the region, China still consumes more
than it can produce. In total, China (including
Hong Kong) accounts for 30% of Asia Pacific’s
demand. Japan is the second largest gas
consumer, accounting for 15% of demand.
Historically Japan was the largest gas user in
the region, but was overtaken 2009 by China,
The future for gas in Asia Pacific: significant Australian

resources remain
“Thanks to a $200 billion investment, when all projects are in full production, Australia will have 21
trains operating with a combined nameplate capacity of 86 MT. Australia’s LNG exports were already
53 MT in 2017; in 2018, production is forecast to grow by a further 20%.
The surge in Australian exports has stimulated unprecedented upstream development. New
offshore fields in north-western Australia are in production; in eastern Australia, new supply has
been provided from a mix of onshore and offshore projects. Increasingly, gas production in eastern
Australia is sustained by production from coal seam gas reserves (59% of supply in 2017).
This rapid industry growth is posing some challenges for the Australian industry. As in other
countries, the rise of onshore unconventional gas has attracted activist campaigns. Two eastern
states have blocked onshore development in their jurisdictions. More broadly, the growth of LNG
exports from eastern Australia has coincided with the decline of established, low cost fields. With
local customers adjusting to higher domestic gas prices, the political climate is strained.“
Malcolm Roberts, Chief Executive, Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Associaton Ltd.
13
Oil production in CIS
Photo: © Vladimirovic/iStockphoto
Exporting almost 10 million barrels per day
With a Production Indicator of 335%, the CIS region produces more than three times its oil
needs and has become a major oil exporter
Whereas in Soviet times only about a third of Not surprisingly, this had an impact on
the CIS production could be exported, the export production of the region’s oil – particularly
potential today has risen to 235%, or about 10 since by far the main source of that oil is the
million barrels per day. Priced at 50 USD/barrel, Russian Federation. The region’s other major
this would generate a revenue of USD 500 oil producers are: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
million per day. The strong export position is due In 1987, before the collapse of the Soviet Union,
to increased production and significantly lower the region produced 12.6 million barrels per
local demand. day. It took 20 years before the CIS managed to
match that production record. Since then, it has
Few parts of the world have undergone as reached a high of 14.1 million barrels per day.
much political and social upheaval as those In 1987, as now, the vast bulk of CIS volumes
nations that formed part of the Soviet Union. came from what is now the Russian Federation.
Oil production: A two-decade dip Oil demand: Significant decline after 1990
16000 16000
14000 14000
12000 12000
10000 10000
8000 8000
6000 6000
4000 4000
2000 2000
0 0
‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 The earliest reliable production data date only from 1985.
14
Oil production in CIS
Oil: Producing 3 times its needs

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 The CIS
400% Regional export potential PRODUCTION
350% INDICATOR FOR OIL is
335%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100% The oil Production Indicator in the CIS has doubled

50% since the mid-1990s when production started to
0% recover, and demand remained low compared to
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 Soviet times.
It alone holds 15% of world oil reserves and With much of the region’s economy contracting
produces 80% of the region’s oil. Kazakhstan in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse,
is the second largest CIS producer at 12% and both production and demand suffered in the
Azerbaijan ranks third with 6%. late 1990s. Soon after the turn of the century,
however, production took an upswing; demand
In contrast to production, the region’s demand did not. As a result, since 2005, CIS production
has never really recovered from the depression has consistently exceeded demand. This has
that followed the Soviet Union’s dissolution. opened considerable oil export opportunities.
Looking at seven countries, the drop in demand
is most notable in Russia itself, Ukraine and
Belarus. Demand in Russia halved from 5.0
million barrels per day to 2.5 million in 2002.
It has now partially recovered to 3.2 million
barrels per day, which accounts for 77% of the
region’s demand.
The future of oil production: a turning point?

It is worth noting that in Russia, the largest producer in the CIS, growth in oil consumption resumed in 2016,
notwithstanding an inherently weak economy and sanctions constraints.
Even with a degree of recovery in domestic consumption, Russia was still able to retain its position as a major
world oil exporter. With the sixth largest proved oil reserves, there is room for much more development for both
domestic and foreign sales in the years and decades ahead.
Major projects include:
• Increasing production from the Trebs and Titov fields
• Essential infrastructure work on the Novoportovskoye field
• Expansion of the Vankor field
15
Gas production in CIS
Photo: © Vladimirovic/iStockphoto
The biggest global gas exporter
The CIS Production Indicator for gas has grown steadily. In 1986 it was 117%. A decade
later it was 121%. In 2006 it was 129%. Today it stands at 140%.
Being able to ship more than 200 billion cubic to only 605 billion cubic metres. Recovery,
metres of gas annually, the CIS region is the however, was relatively quick. Since 2004, CIS
biggest global gas exporter. This is partly driven gas production has exceeded 700 billion cubic
by constant high production and reinforced by metres (with the single exception of 2009, which
regional demand that is moving from statis to was the worst year of the global recession). For
decline. the past five years, CIS production has stabilised
at more than 750 billion cubic metres. Among
Just as oil production suffered from the collapse the gas producers, the Russian Federation is the
of the Soviet Union, so did gas production in largest, accounting for 76% of regional output.
what is now the CIS. In the waning days of Soviet Turkmenistan follows with 9% and Uzbekistan
power, the region’s production was over 700 is third with 8%. In 2016, one in six cubic metres
billion cubic metres. By 1997, it had dropped of gas produced in the world came from Russia.
Gas production: twin peaks Gas demand: lower than 25 years ago
900 900
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan
16
Gas production in CIS
Increasing export opportunities

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 The CIS
160% Regional export potential PRODUCTION
140% INDICATOR FOR GAS is
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
The CIS gas Production Indicator has grown
20%
steadily, driven by constant high production
0% and partly declining demand.
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
This enabled the Federation to be the world’s on 72% of demand. Uzbekistan’s share is 10%,
largest exporter of gas, while also meeting Turkmenistan and Ukraine each have 5% of
domestic demand. Gas is Russia’s leading fuel, demand. Belarus and Kazakhstan trail with 3%
accounting for more than 50% of primary energy each. The dramatic decline in demand from the
consumption. Ukraine, which has halved since 2008, is due to
the continuing conflict with Russia.
CIS gas demand peaked in the Commonwealth’s
founding year at 632 billion cubic metres. It
plummeted to below 500 billion cubic metres in
1997, partially recovered in 2007 to almost 600
billion cubic metres and since then has been in
steady decline. In 2016, CIS demand for gas was
down to 547 billion cubic metres. The biggest
consumer is the Russian Federation, with calls
The future of gas: focus on exports

“Natural gas production in the CIS continues to be important and crucial to meeting demand in the
area itself and in both traditional and new foreign markets.
In the Russian Federation, the focus is on its European customers and major infrastructure (mostly
pipeline) projects are underway to ensure both security of supply (for the customers) and security
of demand (for the supplier). Turkey is an increasingly important market for Russian gas; it is the
second largest outlet after Germany.
New field development and additional new infrastructure projects (eg.Power of Siberia pipeline
system to China) are advancing and will be the basis for (partly) new production to serve Asian
customers, particularly in China. Meanwhile, gas produced in Central Asia and will also find its
way to China in ever greater quantities. Russian LNG output is growing, including LNG based on
production in the arctic Yamal Peninsula.”
Marcel Kramer, Regional Coordinator for Russia, the Black Sea and the Caspian, IGU
17
Oil production in Europe
Photo: Kjetil Alsvik/Aker BP

New dynamics; encouraging prospects
With an oil Production Indicator of 25%, Europe imports three quarters of the oil it uses. While
this is a decline from the turn of the 21st century, remaining reserves offer great potential
In the 1960s, Europe was one of the major Norwegian and UK production prolonged for
importers of oil. Its Production Indicator was decades through highly innovative extraction
only 10%, with Romania being the single techniques. Even so, as reservoirs have depleted,
largest producer until the mid-1970s. However, output has dropped since peak production
the development of activities in the North around the turn of the century of about 6 million
Sea, following the 1973 oil crisis, marked the barrels per day. Today, European production
emergence of Norway and the UK as major oil & stands at around 3 million barrels per day.
gas producing countries and boosted Europe’s
Production Indicator above 40% in the late 1990s. Europe’s oil demand has hovered around 14 to
16 million barrels per day since the 1970s. In
The North Sea has proven to be one of the 2016, oil demand throughout Europe grew at
upstream industry’s great success stories, with about 2% and figures for 2017 show a similar
Oil production: UK & Norway have peaked but still dominate Oil demand: on a high level
18000 18000
16000 16000
14000 14000
UK Production Norway Production
12000 12000
peak 1999 peak 1999
10000 10000
8000 8000
6000 6000
4000 4000
2000 2000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Other Europe & Eurasia
18
Oil production in Europe
Oil: an on-going challenge to meet demand

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Europe’s
50%
Oil Production PRODUCTION
increased after 1973
25%
oil crisis: N and UK
40%
30%
20%
10%
Yet by 2040, Europe could supply up to one third
0% of its oil by encouraging domestic production
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
trend. The biggest regional consumers are region’s largest producer (with a relatively
Germany (16%), the UK (11%), France (11%), small population) can export eight times its own
Spain (9%) and Italy (9%). demand. Most other producers – including the
second-ranking UK – continue to import oil to
Today, Denmark and Norway are the only meet a large part of demand.
European countries where production exceeds
demand, allowing oil exports. Norway, the
The future for oil in Europe: great potential for sustained production
“Despite the downward production trend of the past few decades, prospects are positive for
European production as investments flow into the region. Companies active in mature basins such as
the North Sea have achieved efficiency gains which now allow a large part of their production to be
competitive on the global oil market.
Moreover, a series of recent successful licensing rounds, promising finds in the Black Sea and the
East Mediterranean as well as an upward revision of remaining resources in areas thought to be in
terminal decline have sent a wave of optimism across the industry.
According to IOGP’s most recent data, Europe has around 32.5 bnboe of potential resources left,
excluding unconventional resources.
Although a return to the golden age of European production levels is unlikely, European countries
have the opportunity to build on these positive dynamics and meet a substantial amount of their own
demand for many more years.
By making the most of these resources, Europe could supply up to a third of its own oil demand–
boosting public finances, retaining a highly-skilled engineering job base, and securing energy
supplies which would give it a competitive advantage.
Europe can sustain current oil production levels for as much as a quarter-century if it fosters
cooperation between regulators and industry, and incentivizes exploration. This is important, since
the IEA estimates that the region will need oil to meet up to 25% of its energy demand in 2040 – even
in a low carbon future”
François-Régis Mouton, Director European Affairs, IOGP
19
Gas production in Europe
Photo: Harald Pettersen/Statoil

European production remains stable
as demand rebounds
As import needs rise, interdependence between the EU and its suppliers will grow stronger
Europe’s Production Indicator has now hovered gas producer with 124 bcm supplied to the
around 50% for a decade, ending the previous region in 2017 (50% of European production).The
period of decline. UK and the Netherlands follow with 27% and
17% of the region’s production.
The Netherlands, with its large Groningen
field, had been Europe’s biggest gas producer Demand for gas grew significantly in Europe
until the 1990s. The UK gradually took the lead between 1970 and the economic slowdown
by 2004, but was replaced two years later by following the 2008 financial crisis. After a few
Norway as the region’s dominant supplier. To years of sharp decline, in 2014 demand started
this day, Norway remains the main European to recover among the large consuming nations.
Gas production: UK & Norway still dominate Gas demand: regional requirements rebound
600 600
500 500
Production UK Production
400 peak in 2004 down, 400
Norway up
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Other Europe & Eurasia
20
Gas production in Europe
Gas: a widening gap between production and demand

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Europe’s
120% PRODUCTION
49%
100%
80%
60%
40%
After 60 years of production, Europe still produces
20% almost half of the gas it consumes every year –
reflecting the potential of the basins and the need
0 for policies to encourage future production of this
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
cleaner-burning fuel.
As of 2016, Germany remained the region’s With half of Europe’s gas needs met by imports,
largest gas consumer, accounting for 17% of the region is fortunate in being able to depend
demand, followed by the UK, which took 16% on a world-class import infrastructure and
and Italy at 13%. All big consumer countries a sophisticated and well developed internal
saw increases of demand in the period 2014- energy market framework. Europe also benefits
17. About every second household in Europe is from the global reach of its top class ranking oil
heated by gas (more than 200 million citizens); and gas companies.
demand for industry feedstock, power generation
and transport are strong – and increasing in
many European countries.
The future of gas in Europe: good potential for indigenous supplies

“In Europe, climate efforts and the need to find cleaner alternatives to fuels such as coal, open up
possibilities for natural gas. While overall demand is expected to stagnate or decline in the long-
term, gas is nevertheless going to retain an important share of the European energy mix for many
years.
From an upstream perspective, exploration performance in Europe has substantially improved over
the past few years, with success rates now surpassing the global average. New, smaller players
are moving in to help incumbents prolong the lifetime of existing fields. IOGP’s most recent data
indicates that over 5000 bcm of natural gas remain untapped in Europe, and another 989 bcm could
still be found.
Gas will have a strong role in reducing emissions of CO2 and air pollutants across the globe. Europe’s
unlocking of its own resources and attracting those of global partners to its market will be of
strategic importance for the region, both from a climate and security-of-supply perspective.
Policymakers need to be aware that the right framework for exploration and production could allow
Europe to meet half of its own significant gas demand for at least another 20 to 25 years. Positive
news coming out of the Eastern Mediterranean, progress in the Barents Sea and an increase in
Norwegian reserve figures could strengthen Europe’s gas position.”
Olav Aamlid Syversen, Chair of IOGP’s EU Committee
21
Oil production in the Middle East
Photo: © look67/iStockphoto
Full-throttle for the world’s biggest
producers
The Middle East produces more than three times its own increasing demand
The history of oil production in the Middle East The Middle East produces 35% of the world’s
dates back over a century to 1908, with the first oil – at last count an all-time high of 32 million
commercial discovery in what is now Iran. Since barrels per day. This is due to record-breaking
then, the region has become one of the world’s output from several states including Saudi
foremost producers, accounting for about 48% Arabia, Iraq, Oman and the UAE. Kuwait and
of the world’s proven reserves (beneath an area Qatar came close to breaking their own oil
of approximately 3% of the earth’s land surface). production records.
Production: growing to unprecedented levels Demand: Saudi Arabia leads

35000 35000
1979 Iranian Iran Iraq War Gulf War
Revolution 1980-88 1990-91
30000 30000
25000 25000
20000 20000
15000 15000
10000 10000
5000 5000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait Oman Qatar
Saudi Arabia Syria United Arab Emirates Yemen Other Middle East
22
Oil production in the Middle East
The foremost global exporter

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 The Middle East’s
1800% PRODUCTION
1600% INDICATOR FOR OIL is
337%
1400%
1200%
1000%
800%
600%
400%
The region’s production enables it to be the
200%
major oil exporter. The Production Indicator has
0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
remained broadly unchanged for a decade.
Overall, the 2016 regional growth in production Elsewhere in the region, significant demand
was 5.7% (or 1.7 million barrels per day), growth comes from Qatar, where oil
making the Middle East again the world’s consumption has more than doubled in the
largest producing region. past decade. The UAE had a similarly dramatic
growth but at higher level: The UAE consumes
Looking at demand, Saudi Arabia is not only about three times as much as Qatar.
the biggest producer of oil. It is also the largest
consumer in the region by far, accounting for
41% of the regional total – twice the volume
consumed by Iran, where growth in demand has
slowed. Saudi oil demand has tripled since 1996.
The future for oil in the Middle East: primacy for decades
Given its significant oil resources, the region is likely to remain the global oil exporter for decades to come.
With 813 billion barrels of proved oil reserves at year end 2016, the region holds just under 50% of global oil
reserves. Saudi Arabia accounted for over a third of these reserves.
The Middle East’s per capita oil wealth is unrivalled. However, the socio/economic impact of reliance on oil has
been of some concern for many of the region’s states. As a result, economic diversification is a target for many.
The impacts of this policy can already be seen in the UAE and Qatar. Greater diversification into areas such as
tourism, agriculture and commerce is likely to further increase demand.
23
Gas production in the Middle East
Photo: © typhoonski/iStockphoto
A 40-year growth trend continues
Despite rising demand, the Middle East can export one fifth of the gas it produces
The Production Indicator for gas in the Middle dramatic. Overall, in the decade from 2005-
East is 125%. This enables the region to meet 2015, Middle Eastern gas production grew by
all of its local demands while serving export 7% per year. The region now accounts for about
markets – largely in Asia Pacific – as well. 18% of world production. Iran is the region’s
Before the streaming of Qatar gas, the regional biggest gas producer, constantly growing and
Production Indicator was 110%. It then rose accounting meanwhile for a third of the region’s
to 134% but has since fallen due to increasing output. Qatar is a close second, with 28% and
indigenous demand. Saudi Arabia ranks third, with 17%.
It is only in that past 40 years that the Middle Given available resources and infrastructure,
East began to produce natural gas in any gas has become the Middle East’s fuel of choice
significant volumes. Growth since then has been for local consumption. Its share of the energy
Production: three countries dominate Demand: Iran leads an overall increase

700 700
Iran constantly growing
600 600
500 500
400 Qatar kicks in 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Bahrain Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait Oman Qatar
Saudi Arabia Syria United Arab Emirates Yemen Other Middle East
24
Gas production in the Middle East
Keeping ahead of growing regional demand

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 The Middle East’s
200% PRODUCTION
125%
150%
100%
50% Before the streaming of gas from Qatar, the

regional Production Indicator was 110%. It then
0% rose to 134%, but has since fallen due to increasing
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 indigenous demand.
mix hit a record of 51.5% in 2016. Over 20 years enabled Qatar to become a leading gas exporter
ago, Iran had overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms – with particular emphasis on LNG shipments
of gas demand. Since that time, demand for abroad. Qatar is currently the world’s largest
gas in Iran has increased by a factor of five to LNG exporter and is likely to remain so for some
the point that its population now consumes time.
39% of the region’s demand. Saudi Arabia trails
with 21% of consumption; the UAE takes 15%.
However, the way gas is used differs by nation.
In Iran, for example, gas is the prime domestic
fuel and the locally produced gas is used within
the country. Saudi Arabia’s production is also
mostly for its home market. In contrast, Qatar
has a Production Indicator of 434%, producing
more than 4 times the country’s needs. This has
The future for gas in the Middle East: an assured role in meeting rising demand
With a 42.5% share of global natural gas reserves, the region’s role as a gas producer and consumer is assured.
Saudi Arabia, for example, is considering expansion of its gas capacity, including the development of non-associated
gas fields in the Gulf and a move into sour gas and shale to meet rising domestic demand.
Elsewhere, recent or planned major projects include:
• The Khazzan (BP) extension in Oman
• Basrah (Shell) in Iraq
• The Bab (ADNOC) and Hail (ADOC) fields in the United Arab Emirates, together with the Shah field expansion
(Abu Dhabi Gas Development)
25
Oil production in North America
Photo: © Roschetzky/iStockphoto
Reducing the import bill
With the US and Canada producing at or near record highs, indigenous oil is increasingly
meeting regional demand
Consistently high levels of demand region’s total, followed by Canada and Mexico.
notwithstanding, North America’s oil Production Following decades of production decline in the
Indicator is 81% – up from 55% in just eight US dating back to the early 1970s, in 2007 yields
years. While still well short of oil independence, re-bounded and grew steadily to reach a recent
the region is better-placed for self-sufficiency all-time high. Much of this can be attributed to
than at any time since the 1960s and a brief technology advancements and the success with
period in the early 1980s during an economic shale development, which first started having an
downturn. The US, the region’s largest producer, impact around 2011.
has a PI of 63%, up from 33% only a decade ago.
While Canadian volumes are considerably less,
The US is the bedrock of North American they are still significant, with more than four
production, accounting for two thirds of the million barrels per day. This puts Canada in the
Production: US leads while Canada overtakes Mexico Demand: fuelling the US

30000 30000
Mexico kicks in US all time high
25000 25000
20000 20000
15000 15000
10000 10000
5000 5000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
US Canada Mexico
26
Oil production in North America
A promising trajectory
Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 North America’s
100%
PRODUCTION
81%
80%
60%
40%
20% Consistently high levels of demand

notwithstanding, North America’s oil Production
0%
Indicator is up from 55% in just eight years.
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
same league as Middle East heavy weights such The US also accounts for the bulk of the region’s
as the UAE, Iran and Iraq. In the last decade, – and indeed the world’s – oil demand. As a
Canada was able to increase its production by result, one barrel out of four produced anywhere
more than a third. in the world ends up in North America. One in five
is consumed in the US. The US consumes 82% of
In contrast, Mexican production peaked around the region’s demand. The rest is fairly evenly split
the turn of the century and has tapered off between Canada (10%) and Mexico (8%).
since, partly due to a period of economic
stagnation. Canadian production overtook that
of Mexico around 2007.
The future for oil in North America: ample reserves merit

enabling policies
“North America holds 13.3% of the planet’s proven oil reserves, but its technically recoverable
oil reserves exceed 66 years’ worth of production and have continued to rise as technology
improvements incrementally raise productivity and recovery factors.
New and expanded infrastructure – including pipelines and other transportation modes, midstream
processing, export infrastructure, and refining as well as petrochemical manufacturing capacity
– are critical to unlock North America’s resource and economic potential. These investments are
enabled and motivated by:
• A collaborative policy environment with efficient and appropriate permitting and regulatory processes;
• M
odern free trade agreements, include an Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) process; and,
• A
ccess to resources, especially in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf and multiple-use, non-park
public lands in the West and Alaska.
With these enabling policies, North America’s potential – including oil from shale and sand deposits –
is enormous.”
Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute
27
Gas production in North America
Photo: Courtesy of CAPP

Another all-time high for the region’s
biggest producer
North America remains self-sufficient in natural gas, with a Production Indicator of 100%
Since the 1970s, North America has been able reservoirs commercial. According to the
to provide itself with most, if not all, of the gas it American Petroleum Institute (API), the US
has needed. Recently, gas from shale in the US can look forward to at least another century
and Canada has been instrumental in this, as of natural gas production – adding about $385
demand has risen by 75% since the early 1980s. billion to the economy every year. In Canada,
gas production rose by 100% to more than 150
The regional leader, the US, has overtaken billion cubic metres in the decade between 1987
Russia as the world’s largest natural gas and 1997. This surge in production was driven by
producer. This progress is attributable to an almost fourfold growth in exports as the US
innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic became more reliant on Canadian gas to meet
fracturing that made previously inaccessible
Production: a decade of growth Demand: US consumption continues to lead

1000 1000
US all time high
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
US Canada Mexico
28
Gas production in North America
A delicate balance maintained

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 North America’s
104% PRODUCTION
102% INDICATOR FOR GAS is
~
100%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
The region remains self-sufficient in natural gas.
90%
Gas from shale has enabled producers to keep
88% pace with steadily rising demand.
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
its needs. Since then, production has stabilized By contrast, Canada consumed only 3% of global
at about that level as the US has been able to demand in 2016; for Mexico the figure was
meet further growth in its natural gas demand 2.5%. And while the Canadian level of demand
through growing shale gas production. Mexico, has barely changed in a decade, Mexico’s has
which produces 5% of North America’s gas, increased by almost 50% since 2005.
yielded 47 billion cubic meters, almost a fifth
less than a decade before. The US and Canada are using technological
innovation to further increase their natural
North America accounts for 27% of global gas production – for both indigenous use and
gas demand. The US alone consumes 22% of export. With the development of new LNG export
the world’s gas. In 2016, US gas demand was facilities in both of the main producing nations,
about 780 billion cubic meters. To put that in the region is poised to become a major source
perspective, it was higher than consumption in of natural gas for other, less-favoured parts of
all of Asia Pacific – including China. the world.
The future of gas in North America: vast Canadian resources

to meet market opportunities
“The natural gas resource base in Canada is vast, given the potential of prolific liquids-rich shale
plays such as the Monteny and Duverney. Given the lack of any resource constraint, the outlook for
natural gas production in Western Canada is heavily influenced by the ability for producers to take
advantage of any market opportunities. Growth in Oil Sands production, that relies on natural gas for
steam production in order to reduce the viscosity of bitumen deposits, will be a source of increased
gas demand. Also, as coal-fired power is being phased out in Canada, natural gas is expected to
replace much of this lost generation capacity. Growth in the petrochemical sector could also lead to
greater demand for gas in Western Canada. However, perhaps the most significant opportunity is the
potential for the development of West Coast LNG export terminals. Projects have been touted that
require as much as 2 bcfd of gas to be liquefied. If such projects come to fruition, the impact on gas
production would be significant.”
Mark Pinney, Natural Gas Manager, CAPP
29
Oil production in Central & South America
Photo: © LiciaR/iStockphoto
Brazil overtakes Venezuela
With a Production Indicator down to 107%, the region is on the verge of becoming
a net importer
Oil production in Central & South America is at barrels. By 2016 it was down to 2.4 million
a high level of more than 7 million barrels per barrels per day.
day since a decade ago. The latest figure is 7.5
million barrels per day. Two countries currently As Venezuela’s production has waned, Brazil’s
dominate Central and South American oil has been growing significantly since 1985.
production: Venezuela and Brazil. In 2016, Brazil’s daily output of 2.6 million
barrels gave it a 35% regional share, making
Traditionally, Venezuela had been South it, for the first time, South America’s largest
America’s biggest producer. Its oil reserves producer. Working in Brazil’s favour have been
(18% of the world’s total) outstrip those of Saudi a supportive strategy regarding exploration bids
Arabia. But the political and economic instability which has attracted interest by international oil
of recent years has taken its toll on production. companies, coupled with the development of
In 2005, Venezuela’s daily output was 3.3 million new offshore technologies.
Oil production: Brazil and Venezuela biggest producers Oil demand: up by factor 4 since 1970
9000 Brazil surpasses 9000
Venezuela
8000 8000
7000 7000
6000 6000
Brazil kicks off
5000 5000
4000 4000
3000 3000
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela Other Central and South America
30
Oil production in Central & South America
Oil: falling export potential

Oil: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Central & South America’s
250% PRODUCTION
107%
200% Regional export potential
150%
100%
50% The region is, for the first time in more than
30 years, on the verge of losing its self-sufficiency
0% and becoming a net importer.
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Oil demand is on an upward trend in the remedied that situation. Central & South
region. Again, Brazil’s accelerating prosperity is America once again became a major exporter,
apparent, notwithstanding a recent decline. It generating significant revenues for the exporting
now accounts for the largest share of demand countries while simultaneously meeting
in Central & South America. The relative increasing indigenous demand.
fragility of Venezuela’s economy can be seen in
its diminished share of total demand. Overall, More recently, however, as the region continued
demand in the region has increased by a factor to grow more prosperous as a whole (except
of four since 1970. Venezuela, where production also suffered due
to lack of investment) production and demand
Supply and demand first converged in the 1980s, are once again close to converging.
at which point Central and South America’s
position as an oil exporter was in jeopardy. Whether or not a similar boost in investment
Soon after, new investment in exploration and and production will occur remains to be seen.
production – largely in Brazil and Colombia, Meanwhile, the yield in existing oil fields is
combined with a recovery in Venezuela – tending to diminish by about 6% per year.
The future for oil in Central & South America: policies improve
“Changes in national policies of most countries are creating more equitable tax and fiscal regimes. These
can attract significant investment from national, regional and global players in the upstream oil industry.
Major areas of opportunity include offshore Brazil and Guyana; in the latter the huge Stabroek Block
has yielded five successful wells. Offshore Suriname, still in the exploratory phase, is also promising.
Great potential remains in Venezuela and its realisation relies on major changes by government to
make the country attractive to investors once more.
Challenges include maintaining dialogue and cooperation with governments within the standards of
anti-corruption compliance, logistic costs, labour union issues and weak coordination between local
and national governments for access to land.”
Miguel Moyano, Upstream Director, ARPEL
31
Gas production in Central & South America
© Wintershall/Alejandro Kirchuk
Regional gas production proliferates
Seven significant producers are meeting a dramatic rise in regional demand
Production of natural gas in Central & South are now producing natural gas to supply
America has risen steadily since 1970. Until their local markets. Whereas Argentina and
around 2000, two countries, Argentina and Venezuela accounted for more than 65% of
Venezuela, were the biggest producers and regions gas production in 2000, this share has
soon after Trinidad & Tobago became fallen to 40% in 2016. Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia
contenders as well. and Peru have all become significant gas
producers.
The top three producers have recently been
joined by a number of other countries, which
Gas production: from two nations to seven Gas demand: up by 79% since 2000
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Peru Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela Other Central and South America
32
Gas production in Central & South America
Gas: diminishing export potential

Gas: Production Indicator 1970-2016 Central & South America’s
120%
PRODUCTION INDICATOR
FOR NATURAL GAS is
103%
115%
110%
105%
100%
Natural gas supply and demand in Central and South
95% America converged in 2015 and slightly recovered
subsequently. The current PI suggests that, without new
90% investment and development, the region is on the verge
‘70 ‘72 ‘74 ‘76 ‘78 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16
of becoming a gas importer.
Gas demand within the region has risen Argentina leads the region in gas consumption,
dramatically by 79% since 2000. This is due to accounting for 29% of demand. Brazil and
increasing availability of indigenous supplies and Venezuela each use 21% of the region’s gas.
to investment in new developments.
Regional demand for gas in Central and South

America has increased by a factor of 12 since 1970.
The future for gas in Central & South America: improved

infrastructure and lower costs
“There are a lot of opportunities for natural gas development in Latin America and the Caribbean, a
resource-rich region.
There is also cause for greater optimism. Recent production increases in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia
and Peru are encouraging, as is the recovery of gas production in Argentina. There, the Vaca Muerta
shale formation is one of the world’s largest. A $5 billion investment in 2017 should help to improve
infrastructure and so lower production costs. Venezuela has the potential to become a game-
changer, in particular if the country manages to develop the under-explored offshore platform, but
there is great uncertainty.
The main challenges are the sector competitiveness in a gas abundant global scenario and
development of domestic demand to make upstream investment more attractive.
Progress in creating more attractive tax and fiscal regimes is continuing to attract interest in most of
the region’s producing countries.
The challenges for gas development are similar to those for oil: compliance with anti-corruption
initiatives, labour difficulties and disputes between local and national governments on access to land.”
Pablo Ferragut, Project Manager, ARPEL
33
Photo: BP p.l.c.
About IOGP
The International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP) is the voice of
the global upstream industry. Oil and gas continue to provide a significant
proportion of the world’s energy to meet growing demands for heat, light
and transport.
Our Members produce 40% of the world’s oil and gas. They operate in
all producing regions: the Americas, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the
Caspian, Asia and Australia.
We serve industry regulators as a global partner for improving safety,

environmental and social performance. We also act as a uniquely upstream
forum in which our Members identify and share knowledge and good
practices to achieve improvements in health, safety, the environment,
security and social responsibility.
Contact: Olaf Martins, Global Engagement Manager, IOGP. Email: om@iogp.org
Disclaimer
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, neither
IOGP nor any of its Members past present or future warrants its accuracy or will, regardless of its or their negligence,
assume liability for any foreseeable or unforeseeable use made thereof, which liability is hereby excluded.
Consequently, such use is at the recipient’s own risk on the basis that any use by the recipient constitutes agreement
to the terms of this disclaimer. The recipient is obliged to inform any subsequent recipient of such terms.
This publication is made available for information purposes. IOGP will not directly or indirectly endorse, approve or
accredit the content of any course, event or otherwise where this publication might be reproduced.
Copyright notice
The contents of these pages are © International Association of Oil & Gas Producers. Permission is given to reproduce
this report in whole or in part provided (i) that the copyright of IOGP and (ii) the sources are acknowledged. All other
rights are reserved. Any other use requires the prior written permission of IOGP.
These Terms and Conditions shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England and Wales.
Disputes arising herefrom shall be exclusively subject to the jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales.
www.iogp.org
Registered Office Brussels Office Houston Office
City Tower Bd du Souverain,165 16225 Park Ten Place
40 Basinghall Street 4th Floor Suite 500
14th Floor B-1160 Brussels Houston, Texas 77084
London EC2V 5DE Belgium United States
United Kingdom
T +44 (0)20 3763 9700 T +32 (0)2 566 9150 T +1 (713) 338 3494
reception@iogp.org reception@iogp.org reception@iogp.org

Global Production Report 2018

Enviado por

Dados do documento

Direitos autorais

Formatos disponíveis

Compartilhar este documento

Compartilhar ou incorporar documento

Opções de compartilhamento

Você considera este documento útil?

Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Global Production Report 2018

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

www.iogp.

Oil production in Africa 6

Gas production in Africa 8

Oil production in Asia Pacific 10

Gas production in Asia Pacific 12

Oil production in CIS 14

Gas production in CIS 16

Oil production in Europe 18

Gas production in Europe 20

Oil production in the Middle East 22

Gas production in the Middle East 24

Oil production in North America 26

Gas production in North America 28

Oil production in Central & South America 30

Gas production in Central & South America 32

For each of the regions, we have devised an IOGP Production Indicator©

Complementing our analysis are projections for each region. Some

7 Central & South America

The map above shows the division of the world into

The delineation of zones is not intended to reflect

IOGP Production Indicator© (PI)

Photo: © Pascal Laurent/Total

Production: a shift from north to west Demand: steadily rising

A rapid decline in self-sufficiency

Overall, regional oil demand has increased by

The future for oil in Africa: potential for production growth

Production: in the doldrums Demand: Egypt drives a strong increase

Algeria Egypt Libya Nigeria South Africa Other Africa

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

Quickly falling export potential

50% The Production Indicator is down from 215% in

The future for gas in Africa: new potential

The biggest global importer

For more than 30 years, overall demand for

The future for oil in Asia Pacific: increasing production to help

Photo: © Woodside Energy Ltd

From exporter to importer

20% The Production Indicator is down from 100% in the

The future for gas in Asia Pacific: significant Australian

Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

Oil: Producing 3 times its needs

100% The oil Production Indicator in the CIS has doubled

The future of oil production: a turning point?

Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

Increasing export opportunities

The future of gas: focus on exports

Photo: Kjetil Alsvik/Aker BP

Oil: an on-going challenge to meet demand

Photo: Harald Pettersen/Statoil

Gas: a widening gap between production and demand

The future of gas in Europe: good potential for indigenous supplies

Production: growing to unprecedented levels Demand: Saudi Arabia leads

The foremost global exporter

Production: three countries dominate Demand: Iran leads an overall increase

400 Qatar kicks in 400

Keeping ahead of growing regional demand

50% Before the streaming of gas from Qatar, the

Production: US leads while Canada overtakes Mexico Demand: fuelling the US

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

20% Consistently high levels of demand

The future for oil in North America: ample reserves merit

Photo: Courtesy of CAPP

Production: a decade of growth Demand: US consumption continues to lead