BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

BP Energy Outlook
2018 edition
This workbook contains chart data presented in the 2018 BP Energy Outlook which can be found at:
http://www.bp.com/energyoutlook
Page
Section number
Overview
Primary energy consumption by fuel / Carbon emissions 12
Primary energy demand by end-use sector / region / fuel 14
Economic Backdrop
GDP growth by region and factor 18
Growth in GDP and primary energy / Growth in urban population by region 20
Sectors
Primary energy demand by end-use sector / Annual demand growth and sectoral contributions to growth 24
Growth in final energy consumption by industry and by fuel 26
Final energy consumption growth: Non-combusted versus industry / Non-combusted share of total oil & gas consumption growth 28
Growth in final energy consumption in buildings by region 2016-2040 / Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type 30
Contributions to transport energy consumption / Transport energy consumption by mode 32
Transport energy consumption by fuel type / Transport energy consumption growth by region 34
Passenger Car parc by Type / Fuel economy of new cars 36
Vehicle kilometres by fuel type / New Mobility VKMs 38
Changes in liquids demand from cars: 2016-2040 40
Alternative scenario: Electric car sales as a share of total car sales / Share of total passenger VKMs powered as electricity 42
Alternative scenario: Passenger cars liquid demand / Carbon emissions from energy 44
Growth of GDP, power and primary energy / Shares of total power generation 46
Growth of power generation, 2016-40 / Share of power generation, 2016 & 2040 48
Regions
Primary energy consumption by region / primary energy growth and regional contributions 52
Primary energy demand by fuel and region / Latest changes in energy demand 2016-2040 54
China: Primary energy demand growth and contributions by fuels / Carbon emissions 56
India: Growth of GDP and primary energy / Share of primary energy 58
Primary energy supply and demand growth / Industrial energy share 60
US: Shares of global production / Regional oil/gas imbalances 62
EU: GDP, energy and carbon emissions / primary energy consumption 64
Fuels
Primary energy consumption by fuel / Shares of primary energy 68
Liquid fuels Demand / Supply 70
Liquids demand / Liquids demand growth 72
Shares of world liquids supply / Demand and supply of liquid fuels 74
Alternative scenario: US tight oil scenarios / Number of US oil rigs 76
Global liquids supply growth / Refining througput and demand growth, 2016-2040 78
Natural gas consumption / production / trade 80
Gas consumption by sector / Gas share by sector 82
Alternative scenario: Gas demand increase / Alternative gas scenario - Gas consumption growth with regional contributions, 2016 -2040 84
Alternative scenario: Gas demand growth 2016-40 / Gas share of primary energy 1990-40 86
LNG exports / LNG imports 88
Asian LNG imports and Asian LNG exports of regions "close" to Asia / Gas supply to Europe 90
Coal consumption by region / Coal consumption growth and regional conntributions 92
Growth of renewable power / Pace of power market penetration 94
Change to projected level of power in 2035 / Solar PV learning curve 96
Alternative scenario: Renewables share of power growth / Change in gas and coal in power output / Change in carbon intensity of power 98
Nuclear / Hydro 100
Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions / Reductions in emissions versus ET scenario 104
Alternative scenario: Carbon emissions in 2040: EFT versus ET scenario / Primary energy consumption by fuel 106
Comparisons
Difference in projected levels in 2035 by fuel / region / sector 110
Electric cars / Energy demand growth in China and India / Energy demand growth in Africa 112
Contributions to growth of energy consumption, 2016-2040 114
Global oil and gas demand / Renewables growth (2016-2040) / Electric vehicles in 2040 116
Overview
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe 2016 ET Ice ban Less gas Re push
Oil 4,336 4,836 4,393 4,894 4,799
Gas 3,204 4,707 4,763 4,157 4,079
Coal 3,732 3,762 3,852 4,204 3,101
Nuclear 592 912 943 892 912
Hydro 910 1,241 1,300 1,232 1,236
Renew.* 502 2,527 2,598 2,411 4,095
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels

Carbon emissions
Billion tonnes CO2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
Evolving transition (ET) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
Less coal-to-gas switching (Less gas) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
Renewables push (RE push) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
Faster transition (FT) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
Even faster transition (EFT) 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446
 FT EFT
4,088 3,573
3,604 3,118
2,209 1,597
1,080 1,252
1,283 1,315
4,086 5,331

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356
 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686
 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340
 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528
 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 34,502 36,031 36,667
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 34,519 36,051 36,577
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 34,688 36,359 37,181
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 34,506 34,860 34,041
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 33,463 33,265 31,548
32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 32,023 29,441 26,301
 2035 2040
36,950 36,776
36,407 35,692
37,609 37,572
33,309 32,561
28,535 24,970
22,073 17,630
Primary energy demand

End-use sector
Billion toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Industry* 2,430 3,180 3,743 4,100 5,490 6,335 7,207
Non-combusted 193 310 469 587 735 895 1,097
Buildings 1,409 1,961 2,462 2,880 3,613 4,157 4,781
Transport 880 1,191 1,468 1,824 2,333 2,890 3,232
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

Region
Billion toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
China 202 417 683 1,008 2,491 3,387 4,017
India 65 103 195 316 537 880 1,365
Africa 74 145 222 274 389 509 710
Other Asia 87 168 294 496 750 1,038 1,359
OECD 3,529 4,276 4,787 5,499 5,658 5,718 5,709
Other 954 1,535 1,961 1,799 2,345 2,746 3,158

Fuel
Billion toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Oil 2,253 2,986 3,153 3,580 4,021 4,564 4,864
Gas 890 1,291 1,767 2,182 2,874 3,534 4,148
Coal 1,483 1,813 2,246 2,385 3,636 3,697 3,821
Nuclear 18 161 453 584 626 674 772
Hydro 266 385 487 601 779 1,015 1,160
Renewables** 2 7 35 59 234 794 1,552
**Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels
 2040
7,843
1,277
5,466
3,398

2040
4,319
1,921
1,002
1,671
5,583
3,487

2040
4,836
4,707
3,762
912
1,241
2,527
Economic Backdrop
GDP growth by region and factor
1990-2016 2016-2040
Region Population Productivity Population Productivity
World 1.3% 2.1% 0.9% 2.4%
China 0.7% 9.1% 0.0% 4.7%
India 1.6% 4.9% 0.8% 5.3%
Africa 2.6% 1.2% 2.3% 1.8%
OECD 0.7% 1.4% 0.4% 1.3%
Other 1.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.3%
Growth in GDP and primary energy
1970 - 1980 - 1990 - 2000 - 2010 - 2020 -
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GDP 4.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
Primary energy 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.6% 1.6% 1.3%
Energy intensity -1.0% -0.9% -1.4% -1.1% -1.9% -2.0%

Growth in urban population by region

1990 - 2015 -
Population increase, billions 2015 2040
Africa 274 590
China 459 364
India 206 257
Other Asia 246 358
OECD 239 189
Other 240 212
2030 -
2040
2.9%
1.0%
-1.9%
Sectors
Primary energy consumption by end use sector †
Primary Energy (MTOE) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Industry* 2,430 3,180 3,743 4,100 5,490 6,335 7,207 7,843
Non-combusted 193 310 469 587 735 895 1,097 1,277
Buildings 1,409 1,961 2,462 2,880 3,613 4,157 4,781 5,466
Transport 880 1,191 1,468 1,824 2,333 2,890 3,232 3,398
Total 4,912 6,642 8,142 9,390 12,170 14,278 16,317 17,983
†Primary energy use in power allocated according to final sector electricity consumption
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

Annual demand growth and sectoral contributions

1990- 2016-
% per annum 2016 2040
Industry 0.8% 0.5%
Non-combusted 0.1% 0.1%
Buildings 0.5% 0.4%
Transport 0.4% 0.2%
Total 1.9% 1.3%
Growth in final energy consumption in industry by region*
1985 - 2000 - 2015 - 2030 -
% per annum 2000 2015 2030 2040
China 0.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
India 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Other Asia 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Middle East 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Africa 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
EU -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Others 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Total 1.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.7%
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

Final energy consumption by fuel*

Million toe 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal 754 745 706 1,025 1,301 1,340 1,274 1,313 1,305 1,282 1,253
Liquids 599 602 624 676 652 645 669 690 690 685 676
Gas 691 720 802 858 958 1,043 1,202 1,307 1,397 1,487 1,574
Electricity 581 615 704 816 951 1,085 1,234 1,392 1,530 1,658 1,783
Total 2,626 2,682 2,836 3,375 3,863 4,113 4,379 4,702 4,922 5,111 5,287
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

* Industry excluding non-combusted use of fuels

Final energy consumption growth: non-combusted versus Industry
1970 - 1980 - 1990 - 2000 - 2010 - 2020 - 2030 -
% per annum 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Industry* 2.3% 1.1% 0.8% 3.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7%
Non-combusted 4.9% 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5%
*Industry excluding non-combusted use of fuels

Non-combusted share of total oil & gas consumption growth

2010 - 2015 - 2020 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 -
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total 8% 14% 19% 22% 27% 40%
Growth in final energy consumption in buildings by region 2016-2040
Middle
Million toe 2016 Asia Africa East RoW 2040
2247 512 109 100 55 3024

Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type

Million toe 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
Coal 280 273 256 255 262 266 269 262 256 257
Electricity 93 101 109 120 133 147 163 180 194 200
Gas 186 201 208 221 251 251 259 282 286 294
Oil 264 285 311 339 365 426 454 483 503 475
Total 823 860 884 935 1,011 1,090 1,145 1,207 1,240 1,226
 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
260 259 263 265 277 263 270 274 280 291 316 315 321
210 221 235 249 260 274 285 298 311 327 343 359 379
317 328 328 348 369 373 375 386 388 413 423 425 438
480 527 534 568 555 518 488 466 465 473 451 455 453
1,267 1,336 1,360 1,431 1,461 1,429 1,418 1,424 1,444 1,503 1,533 1,553 1,591
 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
325 307 276 260 216 212 190 175 151 155 125 130 123
395 410 426 447 456 476 493 511 534 549 572 590 611
456 472 489 511 515 540 536 541 589 561 549 565 578
459 448 452 447 448 443 433 448 464 458 453 460 471
1,634 1,638 1,643 1,665 1,634 1,671 1,652 1,676 1,737 1,723 1,700 1,745 1,783
 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
124 127 136 147 152 153 151 162 167 159 154 164 159
626 664 687 712 743 767 800 821 832 874 881 905 932
576 585 606 611 623 626 643 655 640 662 647 626 673
450 445 447 455 459 450 432 435 420 423 415 414 416
1,776 1,821 1,876 1,925 1,977 1,995 2,025 2,074 2,059 2,118 2,097 2,108 2,181
 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
156 155 154 147 132 108 77 43
948 971 989 1,100 1,229 1,379 1,536 1,703
670 670 688 743 784 820 852 883
409 411 416 424 422 414 405 395
2,183 2,207 2,247 2,414 2,566 2,720 2,870 3,024
Contributions to transport energy consumption growth
Income per Population Efficiency
Million toe 2016 head growth gains 2040
2,611 1,493 613 1,513 3203

Transport energy consumption by mode

Million toe 2016 Growth 2040
Cars 957 118 1,075
Trucks 1,033 207 1,240
AMR 622 267 889
Total 2611 592 3203
Transport energy consumption by fuel type
Million toe 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil 1,760 2,015 2,158 2,373 2,593 2,705 2,778 2,783
Gas 3 11 30 45 66 86 109 131
Electricity 14 17 25 31 39 49 67 95
Other* 23 34 79 106 131 156 177 195
Total 1,799 2,077 2,291 2,555 2,829 2,995 3,132 3,204
*includes Biofuels, Gas to Liquids, Coal to Liquids, Hydrogen

Transport energy consumption growth by region

2000 - 2005 - 2010 - 2015 - 2020 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 -
Million toe 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD 79 -19 16 16 -28 -44 -63 -72
China 57 73 98 89 53 39 15 -24
India 9 26 22 26 34 30 39 42
Other Non-OECD 93 138 141 106 108 111 81 54
Total 238 218 276 238 166 136 72 -1
 2040
2,702
154
136
211
3,203
Passenger car parc by type
Millions of vehicles 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ICE 535 726 1,155 1,495 1,648
Plug-In Hybrid 4 56 169
Battery Electric 3 39 154
Total 535 726 1,162 1,590 1,971
*ICE vehicles includes hybrid vehicles which do not plug into the power grid

Fuel economy of new cars

Litres/100km ** 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EU 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.6
China 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.0
USA 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.5 8.5
** Based on the NEDC (New European Drive Cycle), gasoline fuel
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.1
7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.6 5.6 4.6 3.7 3.0 2.4
8.0 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.4 2.9
Vehicle kilometres (Vkm) by fuel type
Trillion kms 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquids 12.1 14.5 17.1 19.3 20.7 21.5
Gas 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Cars
Electricity 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.9 9.9
Subtotal 12.5 15.1 18.6 22.9 27.2 32.0
Liquids 7.7 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.3 11.5
Trucks Gas 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Electricity 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0

New Mobility Vkm

% share of VKMs driven globally 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Private - Autonomous 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7%
Shared - Human Driver 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2%
Shared - Autonomous 0% 0% 0% 2% 17% 20%
Changes in liquids demand from cars: 2016-2040
Mb/d

Tightening in vehicle
efficiency standards
Other
Growth in gains in
demand for fuel Switch to Shared
2016 travel efficency EVs Mobility 2040
18.7 22.6 18.2 2.5 2 18.6
Alternative scenario
Electric car sales as a share of total car sales
Share % 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Evolving Transition 1% 2% 5% 12% 19% 25%
ICE Ban 1% 2% 12% 35% 64% 100%

Share of total passenger Vkm powered as electricity

Share % 2016 2020 2030 2040
Evolving Transition 0.3% 1.3% 13.2% 31.0%
ICE Ban 1.3% 20.2% 68.0%
Alternative scenario
Passenger cars liquids demand
Mb/d
2040

2016 ICE Ban

Evolving High
Transition Impact
18.7 18.6 8.9

Carbon emissions from energy

Million tonnes CO2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Evolving Transition 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850
ICE Ban 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850
EFT scenario 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850
 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430
23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430
23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430
 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431
30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431
30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431
 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
34,502 36,031 36,667 36,950 36,776
34,519 36,051 36,577 36,407 35,692
32,023 29,441 26,301 22,073 17,630
Growth of GDP, power and primary energy
1990 - 2016 -
% p.a. 2016 2040
GDP 3.4% 3.2%
Power 2.9% 2.2%
Primary energy 1.9% 1.3%
Primary energy ex power 1.5% 0.7%

Shares of total power generation

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Oil 20% 21% 23% 25% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Gas 13% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12%
Coal 41% 40% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 36%
Nuclear 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 8%
Hydro 24% 23% 23% 21% 23% 22% 21% 20% 21%
Renewables 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
22% 20% 19% 17% 16% 14% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11%
12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15%
37% 38% 38% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 37% 37%
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17%
21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 18%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7%
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20%
38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40%
17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16%
18% 19% 18% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020
6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3%
20% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 22% 23% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23%
40% 41% 41% 41% 40% 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% 39% 39% 36%
15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 11%
2025 2030 2035 2040
2% 2% 2% 1%
23% 23% 23% 23%
34% 32% 30% 28%
10% 10% 10% 10%
16% 15% 14% 13%
15% 18% 22% 25%
Growth of power generation, 2016-40
Rest of Rest of
Thousand TWh OECD China Asia world
Oil -118 -6 -37 -221
Gas 1079 698 420 1509
Coal -1592 365 3257 149
Nuclear -357 1223 204 343
Hydro 90 377 366 629
Renewables 2,934 3,065 1,368 1,258

Shares of power generation, 2016 & 2040

OECD China India Other Asia
% share 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016
Coal & oil 30% 12% 69% 39% 78% 64% 43%
Gas 27% 31% 3% 7% 5% 4% 37%
Non-fossil 43% 57% 29% 54% 16% 32% 20%
Other Asia
2040
51%
23%
25%
Regions
Primary energy consumption by region
Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
China 202 417 683 1,008 2,491 3,387 4,017 4,319
India 65 103 195 316 537 880 1,365 1,921
Africa 74 145 222 274 389 509 710 1,002
Other Asia 87 168 294 496 750 1,038 1,359 1,671
OECD 3,529 4,276 4,787 5,499 5,658 5,718 5,709 5,583
Other 954 1,535 1,961 1,799 2,345 2,746 3,158 3,487
Total 4,912 6,642 8,142 9,390 12,170 14,278 16,317 17,983

Primary energy growth and regional contributions

2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-
Average annual growth % p.a. 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
China 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
India 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Other Asia 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Africa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Other 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Primary energy demand by fuel and region
US EU China Other Asia
Million toe 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016 2040 2016
Oil 827 679 600 382 577 753 610
Gas 716 928 386 389 189 556 279
Coal 358 112 238 85 1,888 1,552 620
Renewables* 120 383 149 388 88 784 34
Hydro 192 137 190 132 48 325 17
Nuclear 59 59 79 84 263 348 76
Total 2,273 2,299 1,642 1,460 3,053 4,319 1,636
*Including biofuels

Changes 2016-2040* by fuel and region

Region Fuel Mtoe
China Renewables 696
India Coal 543
China Gas 367
Other Asia Coal 314
Middle East Gas 286
China nuclear 277
India Liquids 273
US Renewables 263
India Renewables 239
EU Renewables 239
US Liquids -148
EU Coal -154
EU Liquids -218
US Coal -246
China Coal -336
* Ten largest increases and five largest declines
Other Asia Middle East
2040 2016 2040
1,042 418 515
487 461 747
1,477 9 11
365 1 63
63 1 39
159 5 7
3,592 895 1,382
China
Primary energy demand growth and contributions by fuels
1975 - 1995 - 2015 - 2030 -
Growth % 1995 2015 2030 2040
Oil 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% -0.1%
Gas 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Coal 4.1% 3.7% -0.1% -0.6%
Nuclear 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
Hydro 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Renewables* 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Total 5.3% 6.3% 2.0% 0.8%
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels

Carbon emissions by source

Billion tonnes CO2 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oil 0.30 0.42 0.58 0.87 1.12 1.40 1.65
Gas 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.63
Coal 2.01 2.58 2.73 5.13 6.78 7.38 7.18
2025 2030 2035 2040
1.79 1.85 1.83 1.68
0.80 0.96 1.10 1.26
7.35 7.00 6.54 5.97
India
Growth of GDP and primary energy
1990 - 2016 -
% per annum 2016 2040
Industry* 2.8% 2.2%
Primary energy 5.2% 4.2%
Other sectors 2.4% 2.0%
GDP 6.5% 6.1%
*Does not include non-combusted fuels

Share of primary energy

1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Oil 29.7% 33.6% 28.9% 28.6% 29.4% 28.6% 27.6% 26.4% 25.9% 25.4%
Gas 5.6% 7.5% 10.1% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7%
Coal 56.3% 52.0% 54.1% 57.9% 56.9% 55.1% 53.1% 52.0% 50.7% 49.7%
Renewables 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 4.6% 7.7% 9.8% 11.7% 13.3%
other non-fossils 8.4% 6.6% 5.5% 5.6% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 4.9%
Africa
Energy supply and demand growth
1990 - 2016 2016 - 2040
Other
Mtoe Oil Gas Coal fuels Oil Gas
Energy demand 3.44 3.41 0.79 0.74 2.49 4.83
Energy Supply 6.71 7.54 2.41 6.76 0.86 8.60

Industrial energy share* (1965-2016 unless stated)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
GDP/cap 2.51 2.51 2.50 2.58 2.73 2.88
Africa Industry share 41% 41% 39% 40% 39% 39%
GDP/cap 1.04 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.14 1.17
India Industry share 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% 47%
GDP/cap 1.74 1.75 1.74 1.81 1.89 1.97
Other non-OECD Asia Industry share 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 40%
GDP/cap 5.89 6.01 6.10 6.29 6.54 6.84
S&C America Industry share 41% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39%
GDP/cap 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.42 0.46
China Industry share 56% 56% 57% 56% 56% 56%
*Includes non-combusted fuels
2016 - 2040
Other
Coal fuels
1.75 0.74
2.30 6.76

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
2.92 3.00 3.03 3.16 3.16 3.29 3.36 3.37 3.40 3.42 3.34 3.35 3.31 3.33 3.36 3.30
38% 38% 40% 39% 39% 40% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 44% 45% 44% 44% 44%
1.16 1.13 1.14 1.12 1.20 1.19 1.25 1.29 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.40 1.44 1.48
42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44% 43% 41% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 42% 44%
2.02 2.06 2.18 2.24 2.27 2.40 2.51 2.64 2.74 2.84 2.94 2.99 3.10 3.19 3.19 3.28
40% 41% 41% 42% 42% 44% 44% 42% 43% 44% 43% 43% 43% 43% 44% 44%
7.15 7.47 7.92 8.23 8.31 8.66 8.93 9.03 9.31 9.59 9.24 9.00 8.65 8.78 8.88 9.26
39% 40% 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 37%
0.48 0.49 0.52 0.52 0.55 0.53 0.56 0.62 0.66 0.70 0.73 0.78 0.85 0.97 1.08 1.15
56% 56% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% 56% 56% 57% 55% 55% 55% 55% 54% 55%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3.24 3.29 3.34 3.35 3.33 3.27 3.19 3.19 3.20 3.28 3.32 3.34 3.36 3.41 3.47 3.55
44% 45% 44% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40%
1.52 1.63 1.70 1.76 1.74 1.79 1.84 1.94 2.05 2.16 2.22 2.31 2.43 2.48 2.53 2.61
43% 43% 43% 41% 39% 40% 38% 39% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39%
3.42 3.56 3.73 3.89 4.05 4.23 4.40 4.60 4.83 5.04 5.14 4.83 4.92 5.12 5.15 5.32
42% 42% 40% 41% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 39%
9.40 9.30 9.16 8.87 9.00 9.09 9.32 9.61 9.79 9.92 10.22 10.21 9.97 10.15 10.11 10.00
36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 37% 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 36% 35% 36% 36% 36%
1.26 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.56 1.76 1.98 2.22 2.44 2.66 2.88 3.09 3.30 3.56 3.83 4.16
55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 54% 55% 56% 54% 54% 56% 52% 53% 53% 52%
 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
3.64 3.76 3.89 4.01 4.16 4.29 4.33 4.48 4.39 4.54 4.52 4.56 4.60 4.58 4.82 5.28
39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 36% 36% 36% 35% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32%
2.74 2.90 3.12 3.36 3.64 3.81 3.95 4.32 4.56 4.75 4.98 5.27 5.60 5.97
39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 39% 40% 41% 41% 42% 41% 41% 41%
5.51 5.78 6.05 6.32 6.65 6.85 6.87 7.26 7.51 7.80 8.05 8.30 8.52 8.79
40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 40% 38% 37% 37% 37% 36% 37% 36% 36%
10.07 10.57 10.96 11.46 12.07 12.49 12.23 12.84 13.29 13.49 13.79 13.76 13.53 13.18
36% 35% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 34% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32%
4.54 4.97 5.51 6.17 7.01 7.64 8.32 9.15 9.96 10.68 11.45 12.22 13.00 13.82
52% 53% 54% 53% 54% 54% 56% 56% 55% 55% 54% 53% 52% 52%
2030 2035 2040
5.76 6.31 6.97
32% 33% 33%
US
US shares of global production
% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Oil 23% 21% 20% 18% 17% 17% 15% 15% 16%
Gas 60% 58% 55% 53% 50% 46% 44% 43% 41%
Renewables* 8% 7% 14% 16% 17% 19% 20% 20% 16%

Regional oil/gas imbalances

Million toe 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
US -175 -208 -271 -321 -318 -317 -400 -430 -392
Other N America 22 26 35 46 39 33 23 33 35
S & C America 148 129 108 112 86 51 43 35 28
Mid East 641 765 858 1000 1030 925 1048 1044 981
Africa 258 236 236 246 223 198 240 251 245
Europe -644 -679 -730 -788 -744 -714 -756 -727 -741
Asia -239 -256 -263 -292 -277 -263 -265 -268 -285
CIS 106 112 112 115 122 142 163 178 184
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 18% 16% 16% 15% 14%
40% 39% 38% 35% 32% 32% 29% 27% 27% 27% 26%
18% 19% 20% 16% 18% 20% 22% 20% 21% 20% 41%

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
-384 -314 -255 -212 -221 -226 -229 -257 -299 -346 -399
56 74 87 117 121 123 122 110 120 128 119
34 20 20 18 22 33 36 39 32 41 42
991 840 694 547 453 415 373 497 493 587 637
274 235 167 158 166 182 195 195 194 204 227
-739 -679 -619 -575 -543 -538 -560 -588 -596 -614 -629
-292 -271 -258 -249 -236 -229 -217 -225 -239 -282 -312
200 212 219 227 239 241 258 293 310 321 316
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10%
26% 25% 25% 25% 26% 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 23%
44% 44% 45% 45% 43% 40% 38% 36% 35% 34% 33%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
-384 -375 -414 -443 -466 -497 -531 -546 -561 -607 -634
124 137 145 159 164 175 188 196 205 192 195
63 75 68 75 80 96 112 114 124 112 119
688 667 730 759 764 771 793 839 891 858 926
251 263 270 268 262 269 285 307 302 302 320
-637 -622 -600 -583 -539 -560 -566 -572 -602 -598 -594
-340 -360 -407 -435 -472 -514 -544 -588 -569 -619 -633
278 222 200 220 221 245 272 278 289 306 346
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9%
23% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 19% 19% 20% 19% 20%
32% 32% 31% 29% 28% 28% 27% 29% 29% 29% 29%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-599 -638 -640 -697 -721 -695 -705 -629 -541 -555 -493
209 216 216 216 211 219 203 179 168 162 157
119 119 127 144 144 146 130 126 126 108 99
893 828 898 951 966 969 939 974 879 945 1067
318 322 348 388 411 430 438 434 400 410 329
-622 -617 -655 -678 -731 -760 -764 -771 -725 -763 -741
-652 -678 -734 -790 -795 -835 -889 -886 -893 -963 -1049
368 423 484 533 558 575 595 615 597 634 638
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 13% 14% 15% 15% 16% 16%
21% 20% 21% 22% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23%
27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-426 -401 -302 -262 -320 -267 -215 -162 -109 -70 -31
155 158 172 176 170 168 165 162 160 157 154
88 77 85 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61
1080 1060 1058 1109 1192 1188 1183 1179 1175 1184 1194
356 308 289 278 253 263 274 285 295 289 283
-716 -710 -664 -691 -732 -746 -760 -775 -789 -796 -804
-1128 -1164 -1181 -1223 -1293 -1355 -1416 -1478 -1539 -1587 -1635
635 672 652 673 695 704 712 721 730 740 751
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16%

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
8 47 86 110 134 159 183 207 224 241 258
151 149 146 143 140 138 135 132 129 126 122
56 52 48 45 42 39 36 34 31 28 25
1203 1212 1222 1229 1237 1244 1251 1259 1271 1282 1294
277 271 265 257 250 243 235 228 220 212 204
-812 -819 -827 -829 -832 -835 -837 -840 -838 -837 -835
-1683 -1730 -1778 -1815 -1851 -1888 -1924 -1961 -1990 -2018 -2047
762 772 783 797 810 824 838 851 860 869 877
2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24%
16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15%

2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

275 291 304 316 329 341 353
119 115 111 107 103 99 94
22 19 16 13 10 7 3
1306 1318 1329 1340 1351 1362 1373
196 188 178 169 159 149 140
-833 -832 -824 -816 -808 -800 -792
-2075 -2104 -2128 -2151 -2175 -2198 -2222
886 894 896 898 899 901 902
EU
GDP, energy and carbon emissions
Index 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GDP 100 110 116 123 135 145 154 161 169
Energy 100 105 101 94 96 94 91 87 84
Carbon 100 104 96 85 81 76 67 61 53

Primary energy consumption

Million toe 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Oil 646 674 722 773 726 698 745 734 760 778
Gas 95 117 142 161 182 195 212 222 230 243
Coal 478 456 440 446 441 430 450 449 456 475
Nuclear 10 11 14 15 18 24 29 35 39 44
Hydro 54 54 56 56 61 61 53 71 69 72
Renewables 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total 1,285 1,314 1,376 1,454 1,430 1,410 1,492 1,512 1,556 1,614
 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
724 674 637 616 621 629 647 648 655 658 667 669
242 239 234 243 254 267 271 284 281 289 298 308
485 474 476 480 476 504 498 503 496 494 457 435
51 69 76 90 114 139 152 156 169 179 180 186
69 68 67 68 69 70 67 73 77 63 66 69
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4
1,572 1,526 1,492 1,499 1,537 1,611 1,637 1,668 1,680 1,687 1,672 1,670
 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
673 666 668 680 694 698 714 709 702 711 707 711
299 311 310 335 368 363 374 387 397 407 408 426
405 381 370 363 361 348 333 313 321 322 321 332
187 195 194 200 210 212 211 214 214 222 224 226
72 74 76 76 75 78 81 81 84 87 73 70
5 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 15 17 21 25
1,641 1,633 1,624 1,660 1,716 1,708 1,723 1,716 1,732 1,765 1,754 1,790
 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
718 722 722 705 699 660 654 634 607 589 576 587
436 447 441 435 445 416 448 405 395 388 345 359
326 317 327 328 304 267 280 288 294 288 268 261
229 226 224 212 212 202 207 205 200 198 198 194
75 71 72 71 75 76 86 71 76 84 85 77
31 37 44 53 61 69 80 93 109 121 132 148
1,815 1,819 1,830 1,804 1,797 1,691 1,755 1,696 1,681 1,668 1,604 1,627
 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
580 541 490 439 382
404 409 406 406 389
204 171 121 108 85
192 172 186 145 132
85 83 83 83 84
202 248 283 331 388
1,667 1,623 1,569 1,513 1,460
Fuels
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil 2,253 2,986 3,153 3,580 4,021 4,564 4,864 4,836
Gas 890 1,291 1,767 2,182 2,874 3,534 4,148 4,707
Coal 1,483 1,813 2,246 2,385 3,636 3,697 3,821 3,762
Nuclear 18 161 453 584 626 674 772 912
Hydro 266 385 487 601 779 1,015 1,160 1,241
Renewables* 2 7 35 59 234 794 1,552 2,527
Total 4,912 6,642 8,142 9,390 12,170 14,278 16,317 17,983

Shares of primary energy

% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Oil 46% 47% 48% 49% 48% 47% 48% 47% 47% 46% 45% 44% 42% 41% 40% 39% 40% 39% 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% 27%
Gas 18% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%
Coal 30% 29% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 30% 29% 28% 26% 25% 23% 22% 21%
Nuclear 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5%
Hydro 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Renewables 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Shares of primary energy

% 1900 1913 1920 1940 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Oil 4% 6% 11% 22% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 38% 39% 40% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 48% 47% 48% 47% 47% 46% 45% 44% 42% 41% 40% 39% 40% 39% 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% 27%
Gas 1% 2% 2% 5% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%
Coal 95% 92% 86% 69% 56% 54% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 43% 41% 40% 39% 38% 36% 34% 33% 32% 30% 29% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% 30% 29% 28% 26% 25% 23% 22% 21%
non-fossil† 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 17% 19% 21% 24% 26%
†
Non-fossils includes renewables, nuclear and hydro
Liquid fuels Demand/Supply

Demand (Mb/d) 2016 OECD India China Other Asia Africa

96.6 -9.6 5.8 3.5 3.9 3.4

Supply (Mb/d) 2016 OPEC decline Russia Brazil US OPEC

98.05 -6.52 1.97 1.82 7.78 6.25
Middle East Other 2040
2.9 2.8 109.4

2040
109.4
Liquids demand
Mb/d 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Industry 12.0 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.3
Non-combusted 10.7 11.8 13.4 14.1 15.8 17.4 18.9
Buildings 9.9 10.5 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.4 10.3
Power 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.3
Non-road 8.8 9.9 10.4 11.2 13.0 14.0 14.5
Trucks 16.4 18.6 20.4 22.2 23.0 24.1 25.4
Cars 13.9 15.8 17.5 20.2 22.4 23.2 23.4
Total 76.9 84.7 88.7 95.0 101.7 106.1 109.0
Cars include 2- and 3- wheelers
Trucks include most SUVs in North America
Non-road includes aviation, marine and rail

Liquids demand growth

Mb/d, average annual growth 2005 - 2010 - 2015 - 2020 - 2025 - 2030 - 2035 -
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Transport 0.79 1.07 0.99 0.57 0.40 0.09 -0.29
Industry -0.05 -0.06 0.09 0.08 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04
Non-combusted 0.32 0.16 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.28
Buildings -0.12 0.03 0.07 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04
Power -0.13 0.06 -0.13 -0.08 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07
Total 0.81 1.26 1.34 0.89 0.58 0.24 -0.17
2035 2040
13.1 12.9
20.3 21.7
10.1 9.9
3.0 2.6
15.0 15.7
25.9 25.1
22.9 21.5
110.3 109.4
Shares of world liquids supply
% share 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
OPEC 40.3% 39.9% 38.2% 39.4% 41.1% 41.9% 42.1% 41.7%
Saudi Arabia 12.2% 11.8% 11.4% 12.5% 12.4% 12.8% 12.4% 11.9%
US 11.3% 11.1% 11.2% 10.6% 10.1% 9.5% 9.5% 9.6%
US crude 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 7.0% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.9%
Russia 8.5% 9.1% 10.0% 10.6% 11.1% 11.3% 11.4% 11.7%

Demand and supply of liquid fuels

Mb/d 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
ET scenario 30.7 33.1 35.4 38.4 41.7 45.2 47.9 51.5
FT scenario 30.7 33.1 35.4 38.4 41.7 45.2 47.9 51.5
EFT scenario 30.7 33.1 35.4 38.4 41.7 45.2 47.9 51.5
ICE ban scenario 30.7 33.1 35.4 38.4 41.7 45.2 47.9 51.5
Supply with no reinvest 30.7 33.1 35.4 38.4 41.7 45.2 47.9 51.5
 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
42.4% 40.4% 40.5% 41.0% 41.5% 40.4% 39.3% 39.8% 40.8% 40.1% 40.1%
12.2% 11.3% 11.4% 12.5% 12.7% 12.4% 12.2% 12.3% 12.5% 12.0% 11.6%
9.7% 10.5% 10.8% 11.1% 11.9% 13.2% 14.7% 15.2% 14.8% 17.8% 19.9%
5.7% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 7.1% 8.1% 9.3% 9.7% 9.0% 11.0% 12.3%
11.5% 11.9% 11.8% 11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 11.5% 11.3% 11.5% 11.1% 11.3%

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
55.6 54.8 54.4 57.8 59.9 62.9 64.0 61.4 59.5 57.9 57.8
55.6 54.8 54.4 57.8 59.9 62.9 64.0 61.4 59.5 57.9 57.8
55.6 54.8 54.4 57.8 59.9 62.9 64.0 61.4 59.5 57.9 57.8
55.6 54.8 54.4 57.8 59.9 62.9 64.0 61.4 59.5 57.9 57.8
55.6 54.8 54.4 57.8 59.9 62.9 64.0 61.4 59.5 57.9 57.8
 2030 2035 2040
40.2% 41.1% 42.3%
11.5% 12.1% 13.2%
20.7% 20.7% 20.3%
12.7% 12.2% 11.4%
11.7% 12.0% 12.1%

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
59.0 59.4 61.3 62.6 64.6 65.9 66.7 66.9 67.9 67.6 69.2
59.0 59.4 61.3 62.6 64.6 65.9 66.7 66.9 67.9 67.6 69.2
59.0 59.4 61.3 62.6 64.6 65.9 66.7 66.9 67.9 67.6 69.2
59.0 59.4 61.3 62.6 64.6 65.9 66.7 66.9 67.9 67.6 69.2
59.0 59.4 61.3 62.6 64.6 65.9 66.7 66.9 67.9 67.6 69.2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
70.4 71.9 73.9 74.5 76.3 77.7 78.1 78.0 81.0 84.5 85.4
70.4 71.9 73.9 74.5 76.3 77.7 78.1 78.0 81.0 84.5 85.4
70.4 71.9 73.9 74.5 76.3 77.7 78.1 78.0 81.0 84.5 85.4
70.4 71.9 73.9 74.5 76.3 77.7 78.1 78.0 81.0 84.5 85.4
70.4 71.9 73.9 74.5 76.3 77.7 78.1 78.0 81.0 84.5 85.4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
86.1 86.1 87.2 85.8 88.7 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.0 95.0 101.7
86.1 86.1 87.2 85.8 88.7 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.0 95.0 100.2
86.1 86.1 87.2 85.8 88.7 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.0 95.0 99.5
86.1 86.1 87.2 85.8 88.7 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.0 95.0 101.9
86.1 86.1 87.2 85.8 88.7 89.7 90.7 92.1 93.0 95.0 85.5
 2025 2030 2035 2040
106.2 109.1 110.3 109.4
102.4 102.6 100.3 95.0
100.3 97.7 91.8 84.2
106.1 107.8 105.0 99.6
73.4 63.0 54.1 46.5
Alternative scenario

US tight oil
Mb/d 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020
Evolving transition 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 6.4
Early peak 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 6.5
Greater resource 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 6.7

Number of US oil rigs*

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020
Evolving transition 190 803 947 896 972 484 268 573
Early peak 190 803 947 896 972 484 268 652
Greater resource 190 803 947 896 972 484 268 652
* In the four main producing regions: Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara
2025 2030 2035 2040
8.8 9.6 9.5 9.0
12.0 10.5 7.7 4.8
12.6 14.9 15.5 15.4

2025 2030 2035 2040

574 555 538 523
984 522 277 147
1046 985 934 934
Global liquids supply growth
1990 - 2016 - 2020 - 2025 -
Mb/d, annual average growth 2016 2020 2025 2030
Crude & condensate 0.82 0.54 0.22 0.17
NGLs 0.25 0.37 0.33 0.22
Biofuels 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Other liquids 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.05
Total 1.24 1.07 0.70 0.52

Refining througput and demand growth, 2016-2040

Mb/d China India Other World
Demand ET scenario 3.53 5.84 3.49 12.85
Implied refinery In progress capacity additions only 2.25 0.53 1.16 3.93
throughput China and India self sufficienct 3.53 5.84 -5.44 3.93
2030 - 2035 -
2035 2040
0.02 -0.36
0.16 0.14
0.08 0.08
0.03 0.00
0.30 -0.13
Gas consumption
Bcf/d 2016 2040
N America 93 126
Europe 47 50
China 20 60
India/Emerging Asia 30 52
Middle East 49 80
CIS 53 53
Africa 13 33
Others 36 49

Gas production
Bcf/d 2016 2040
N America 92 146
Europe 23 11
China 13 34
India & Emerging Asia 33 32
Middle East 62 98
CIS 74 96
Africa 20 42
Others 27 43

Gas trade
Bcf/d 2016 2040
Non-traded gas 262 362
LNG 33 74
Pipeline* 47 66
Gas consumption by sector
Bcf/d 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Buildings 52 55 55 58 57 58 63 60 59 60
Industry* 74 73 72 72 73 77 79 80 81 82
Non-combusted 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11
Power 53 56 57 57 58 60 63 65 68 71
Transport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 189 194 195 197 199 206 215 216 219 225

Gas share by sector

% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Transport 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Industry* 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%
Non-combusted 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
Buildings 30% 31% 31% 32% 32% 32% 34% 33% 32% 32%
Power 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18%
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
62 62 63 65 65 67 67 69 70 69 71 69 67
86 86 87 90 91 92 95 98 101 94 103 107 110
12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 18
73 78 82 84 89 94 98 104 107 107 115 116 121
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
233 238 245 251 260 268 276 287 294 287 308 314 321

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
28% 28% 28% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 24% 25% 25% 25%
19% 19% 18% 18% 18% 20% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 22% 22%
32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 31% 32% 32% 31% 31% 31% 30%
18% 19% 20% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030 2040
72 72 72 73 79 88 94
113 113 112 113 128 150 168
18 18 18 19 21 27 33
120 122 131 132 142 168 190
4 5 5 5 7 12 16
327 329 337 342 377 444 502

2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030 2040

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5%
26% 26% 25% 25% 27% 28% 30%
22% 21% 21% 21% 22% 23% 24%
31% 31% 30% 31% 31% 30% 29%
21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21% 20%
Alternative scenario
Gas consumption increase 2016-2040
Less gas
Mtoe ET switch
Industry 285 285
Buildings 68 68
Other effects Transport 0 0
Non combusted 137 137
Power 228 228
Industry 228 40
Buildings 128 24
Switching Transport 107 63
Non combusted 0 0
Power 321 160

Alternative gas scenario - Less coal-to-gas switching (Less gas)

Gas consumption growth with regional contibutions, 2016-2040

Less gas
% p.a. ET switch
N. America 0.3% 0.4%
China 0.4% 0.0%
India/Emerging Asia 0.2% 0.2%
Middle East 0.3% 0.3%
Africa 0.2% 0.2%
EU 0.0% -0.1%
Other 0.2% 0.1%
Total 1.6% 1.1%
Alternative scenario
Gas demand growth 2016-40
Less
gas
% p.a. ET switch RE push FT EFT
Growth rate 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% -0.1%

Gas share of primary energy 1990-40

% share 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Evolving transition (ET) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Less coal-to-gas switching (Less gas switch) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Renewables push (RE push) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Faster transition (FT) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Even faster transition (EFT) 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26%
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23%
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 25% 24% 23% 22% 22%
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 23% 22%
24% 23% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 26% 24% 22% 21% 19%
LNG exports
Bcf/d 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
N America 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Russia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Middle East 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5
Africa 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.6
Australia 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
Others 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.8
Total 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 10.8 11.9

LNG imports
Bcf/d 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Other Emerging Asia 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.8 7 11.2 13 13.9
India 0 0 0 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.6 3 4.1 5.8
China 0 0 0 0 1.2 2.5 8.6 10.8 11.9 12.9
OECD Asia 4.9 6.5 8.9 10.3 13.8 15.6 14.7 14.7 15 14.7
Europe 1.7 2.1 3.2 4.6 8.7 5.3 11.2 12.6 12.7 15.2
Others 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 4.3 4.6 6 8.2 8.7
Total 6.9 9 13.3 18.2 29.6 32.6 48.7 58.3 64.9 71.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
2.3 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.6 5.6 6.6 10.0 12.6 12.5
3.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.7 4.3 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.3 5.8 5.5 5.3
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7
6.7 6.4 6.7 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.7 10.0 9.8
13.1 13.8 14.4 16.3 17.1 18.2 20.4 21.8 21.8 23.4 29.6 32.1 31.8

2040
16.5
8.5
13.9
14
11.5
10.2
74.6
2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0 11.7 15.4 18.4 19.8
1.4 1.4 1.4 3.3 3.5 4.2 5.7 5.6
12.9 12.6 12.2 12.3 14.6 16.4 17.1 18.7
4.6 4.8 4.7 5.8 6.9 8.1 9.2 9.8
2.9 3.1 3.9 10.4 10.4 11.2 12.2 12.8
9.6 10.3 10.4 11.1 11.0 9.6 8.7 7.8
31.4 32.1 32.7 48.8 58.1 64.9 71.2 74.5
Asian LNG imports and LNG exports of regions 'close' to Asia
Bcf/d 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040
Australia 2.5 5.5 10.4 11.2 12.8
Other Asia 7.1 7.0 8.2 7.6 6.4
Middle East (net) 9.8 10.5 10.6 13.2 15.0
Others 3.5 3.9 5.6 10.3 12.1
Asian LNG imports 17.7 24.7 32.9 44.0 52.8

Gas supply to Europe

Bcf/d 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040
Production 27.5 22.8 19.7 15.0 11.4
Russia 12.6 16.0 14.1 19.9 24.9
Other pipeline 5.4 4.9 5.7 5.1 3.7
LNG 8.7 5.4 11.2 12.8 11.5
Coal consumption by region
Million toe 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
China 527 553 579 617 657 665 696 682
India 110 117 124 128 132 140 144 151
OECD 1,147 1,118 1,089 1,082 1,077 1,085 1,117 1,127
Other Emerging Asia 61 63 63 64 62 64 65 70
RoW 401 370 361 335 310 296 285 281
Total 2,246 2,222 2,215 2,225 2,238 2,250 2,307 2,310

Coal consumption growth and regional conntributions

1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-
Annual avergae % p.a. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
China 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 3.6% 0.3% -0.1% -0.8%
India 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
OECD 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% -0.1% -0.9% -0.5% -0.5%
Other Asia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Other 0.3% 0.0% -0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.2% 0.6% 4.3% 0.2% 0.3% -0.2%
 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
677 696 706 743 814 970 1,131 1,325 1,455 1,584 1,609 1,686
156 155 164 166 173 181 193 211 219 240 259 281
1,120 1,102 1,152 1,139 1,154 1,182 1,186 1,193 1,199 1,220 1,196 1,069
70 79 86 96 98 112 116 124 129 141 145 145
270 273 277 280 276 290 296 282 292 295 318 296
2,293 2,305 2,385 2,423 2,516 2,735 2,922 3,134 3,294 3,480 3,528 3,476
 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2030 2040
1,749 1,904 1,928 1,969 1,954 1,914 1,888 1,870 1,841 1,552
290 305 330 353 388 397 412 485 710 955
1,133 1,115 1,063 1,072 1,053 988 927 818 614 433
161 169 176 179 177 187 208 238 371 522
303 315 321 314 317 300 298 286 285 300
3,636 3,807 3,817 3,887 3,889 3,785 3,732 3,697 3,821 3,762
Growth of renewable power
2000 - 2016 - 2030 -
TWh, average annual growth 2016 2030 2040
OECD 64 112 136
China 24 119 140
Rest of World 15 87 141

Pace of power market penetration

Laregst gains in market share over 25 years, 1966 - 1985 - 2015 -
% pts 1991 2010 2040
Nuclear (1966-91) 16.1%
Gas (1985-2010) 9.7%
Renewables (2015-2040) 18.4%
Revisions to renewable power in 2035

Energy Energy Outlook

TWh Outlook 2015 Growth 2018
Solar 1,807
Wind 1,028
Other 210
Total 5,203 8,248

North America, utility scale PV, levelised costs

Cost
Capacity (GW) ($2016/MWh)
70 101
99 93
137 86
177 82
226 77
301 73
397 69
490 66
584 64
658 62
731 61
814 60
889 59
959 58
1,036 57
1,120 57
1,204 56
1,291 55
1,384 54
1,479 54
1,573 53
1,666 53
1,768 52
1,877 52
1,997 51
2,123 51
2,260 50
2,407 50
2,565 49
Alternative scenario
Renewables share of power growth
% share ET RE push
Share of growth 51% 92%

Change in gas and coal in power output, 2016-2040

% change 2016 - 2040 ET RE push
Gas-fired power 65% 5%
Coal-fired power 23% -12%

Change in carbon intensity of power, 2016-2040

% change 2016 - 2040 ET RE push EFT
-34% -54% -98%
Nuclear
1995 - 2005 - 2016 - 2030 -
TWh growth p.a. 2005 2016 2030 2040
China 4.0 14.6 37.3 70.0
Other non-OECD 9.2 6.7 16.7 31.3
OECD 31.0 -35.0 2.8 -39.7
World 44.3 -13.7 56.8 61.7

Hydro
1995 - 2005 - 2016 - 2030 -
TWh growth p.a. 2005 2016 2030 2040
China 20.6 69.6 20.7 8.7
Other non-OECD 24.9 20.3 53.1 25.1
OECD -2.0 10.3 4.9 2.1
World 43.5 100.3 78.8 35.9
Carbon Emissions
Carbon emissions
Million tonnes CO2 year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Evolving transition 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446 16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356 19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 34,502 36,031 36,667 36,950 36,776
Faster transition 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446 16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356 19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 33,463 33,265 31,548 28,535 24,970
Even faster transition 14,482 14,978 15,685 16,538 16,446 16,460 17,347 17,895 18,182 18,775 18,613 18,379 18,193 18,356 19,043 19,475 19,809 20,421 21,103 21,512 21,598 21,609 21,686 21,719 21,961 22,220 22,850 23,056 23,130 23,461 24,003 24,340 24,880 26,115 27,437 28,550 29,430 30,482 30,800 30,145 31,528 32,413 32,740 33,226 33,343 33,303 33,431 32,023 29,441 26,301 22,073 17,630

Reductions versus ET scenario

Faster Even faster
Million tonnes CO2 year in 2040 transition transition
Transport 1,475 1,574
Industry & Buildings 1,816 393
CCUS* 1,154 1,731
Power 7,361 3,642
* Carbon capture use and storage
Carbon: alternative scenario
Carbon emissions in 2040: EFT versus ET scenario
Million tonnes CO2

Fuel Switching
Energy Other Even faster
Evolving transitions intensity Power sectors CCUS transition
36,776 3,674 10,810 1,778 2,885 17,630

Primary energy consumption by fuel

Million toe 2016 ET FT EFT
Oil 4,336 4,836 4,143 3,573
Gas 3,204 4,707 3,650 3,118
Coal 3,732 3,762 2,238 1,597
Nuclear 592 912 1,094 1,252
Hydro 910 1,241 1,299 1,315
Renew.* 502 2,527 4,134 5,331
Total 13,276 17,983 16,557 16,187
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels
Comparisons
Changes to level in 2035 relative to previous Outlook
By fuel
Total
Mtoe Energy Oil, gas, coal Other fuels
Energy 3
Renewables 291
Gas 95
Nuclear -97
Hydro -73
Oil 5
Coal -217
Total -117 121
*Renewables including biofuels

By region and sector

Mtoe
Region Sector
China -219 Transport 82
S&C America 97 Industry -156
Africa 71 Non-combusted -39
Other Emerging Asia* 62 Buildings 38
RoW -8 Power 79
Total 3 3
Comparisons
Electric cars*
Millions of cars 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
EO18 1 2 7 33 95 188 324
EO17 1 1 4 17 52 97

Energy demand growth in China and India

2015 - 2020 2025 - 2030 - 2035 -
Mtoe 2020 -2025 2030 2035 2040
China 381 365 264 190 112
India 195 238 247 259 297

Energy demand growth in Africa

2015 - 2020 2025 - 2030 - 2035 -
2020 -2025 2030 2035 2040
Africa (mtoe) 75 94 107 130 162
Africa's contribution to global growth % 6% 9% 11% 15% 20%
Contributions to growth of energy consumption, 2016-2040
% per annum BP CNPC EIA IEA IEEJ IHS OPEC
Oil 0.14% 0.15% 0.19% 0.12% 0.27% 0.19% 0.17%
Gas 0.41% 0.44% 0.36% 0.39% 0.45% 0.45% 0.47%
Coal 0.01% -0.04% 0.03% 0.05% 0.19% 0.12% 0.12%
Nuclear 0.09% 0.14% 0.07% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.12%
Hydro 0.09% 0.16% 0.11% 0.13% 0.09% 0.08% 0.11%
Renewables* 0.55% 0.22% 0.24% 0.48% 0.22% 0.38% 0.41%
Statoil XOM
0.08% 0.23%
0.22% 0.33%
-0.11% -0.02%
0.06% 0.12%
0.14% 0.09%
0.56% 0.31%
Global oil and gas demand

2040
Sample
Share of primary energy, % 2016 average BP ET
57.0% 55.0% 53.0%

Renewables growth (2016-2040)

BP ET
% per annum scenario CNPC EIA IEA IEEJ IHS OPEC
Renewables 7.0% 4.3% 4.5% 6.5% 4.4% 6.0% 6.2%

Electric vehicles in 2040

BP ET
Millions scenario BNEF IEA IHS OPEC XOM
323 530 277 214 235 180
Statoil XOM
7.2% 5.0%