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Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010

Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change

Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010 IUCN,
Food Security and Present Threat Posed by Climate Change Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010 IUCN,

Saadullah Ayaz IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010

Development Concerns of Pakistan 1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is classified as

Development Concerns of Pakistan

1.

Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is classified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007)

- Human Development Index is 0.539

 

- 74 percent population living under $2 a day

 

- GDP~ 125th in World

 

2

.

Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and employs 46% population~ dependent on water

3.

Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 % per annum

4.

Pakistan

among

the

17

countries

facing

water

shortages and is among the 36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)

36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009) IUCN, International Union for Conservation of
Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan 1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)

Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan

1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)

2. Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%)

3. Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135 th ranking )

4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0°C (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)

5. Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)

6. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)

years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008) IUCN, International Union
years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008) IUCN, International Union
years, in decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008) IUCN, International Union
Food Security and Pakistan 1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk”

Food Security and Pakistan

1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security Risk Index, UN 2009)

2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘food poverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007)

3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of net availability (SDPI 2003)

4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe out large quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to food insecurity

5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006)

Climate Change Impacts in relation to Agriculture and Food Security 1. Climate Change will increase

Climate Change Impacts in relation to Agriculture and Food Security

1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal (GCISC 2008)

monsoon patterns

2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated, threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008).

3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high (international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)

4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to irrigated agriculture)

5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting in food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008)

6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan

Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan

Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan

Temperature

 

Growing Season Length (Days)

 

(˚C

Northern Pakistan

Southern Pakistan

increase

       
 

Mountainous

Sub-Mountainous

Plains

Plains

over

baseline)

Region

(Humid)

Region

(Sub-humid)

(Semi-arid)

(Arid)

Baseline

246

161

146

137

1

232

155

140

132

2

221

149

135

127

3

211

144

130

123

4

202

138

125

118

5

194

133

121

113

Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC)

Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature 6500

Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature

6500 Temperature Effect 5500 4500 3500 2500 1500 base 1 2 3 4 5 W
6500
Temperature Effect
5500
4500
3500
2500
1500
base
1
2
3
4
5
W heat Yield (kg/ha)
3500 2500 1500 base 1 2 3 4 5 W heat Yield (kg/ha) Temperature increase (

Temperature increase ( o C)

Source: GCISC

Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan Cropping Yield %

Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production In Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan

Cropping

Yield

% change

Climate Events

Economic Cost (Rs. Mill)

Year

(kg/ ha)

1999-2000

1319

-25

Drought Year

2685.9

2000-01

534

-70

Drought + Terminal heat stress

3026.1

2001-02

717

-59

Drought + Terminal heat stress

3266.5

2002-03

1310

-25

Drought Year

2281.1

2003-04

1321

-25

Terminal heat stress

2814.0

2004-05

1730

-1

 

169.0

2005-06

1354

-23

Terminal heat stress

3320.0

2006-07

1755

=

Bumper Year

0.0

Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

 

% Share in National Production

 

% Change in yield in 2080

Region

Baseline Yield (kg per ha)

Scenario

Scenario

A2

B2

(Northern

       

Mountainous)

2

2658

+50

+40

(Northern Sub- mountainous)

9

3933

-11

-11

(Southern Semi arid Plain)

42

4306

-8

-8

(Southern Arid Plain)

47

4490

-5

-6

Total (Pakistan)

100

4326

-5.7

-6.4

Source: GCISC 2008

Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to CC and related factors Regions Production

Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080 due to CC and related factors

Regions

Production

distribution

% share in national production

Change

in yield

Quantity

Loss

Economic

Loss

(%)

(000 t)

(Rs. Mill.)

Northern

         

Mountains

465.9

2

+4

186.4

4.43

Northern

         

Sub-

2096.5

9

-11

-230.6

-5.48

mountainous

Southern Semi Arid Plains

9783.8

42

-8

-782.7

-18.59

Southern Arid Plains

10948.5

47

-6

-656.9

-15.60

Total

23294.7

   

-1483.9

-35.24

Source: NARC (2008)

Salient findings 1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as whole higher than the expected global

Salient findings

1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as whole higher than the expected global average increase.

2. Projected temperature increase in the north is somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.

3. Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer.

4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for precipitation change, due to large model uncertainties.

5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decrease everywhere except in the Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase.

Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase. IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and
Northern Mountainous areas where wheat yield will increase. IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and
Recommendations 1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds 2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance

Recommendations

1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds

2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity

3. Improved governance structure

4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock

,

5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services

6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture

7. Control exponential population growth

Recommendations (contd…) 8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated 9. Improve access

Recommendations (contd…)

8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated

9. Improve access to food, through the development of social protection schemes such as minimum wage, unemployment benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agricultural insurance

10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will be extremely important,

11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops

practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and
practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and
practices, reduce cultivation of water intensive crops IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and
Thanks IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Thanks