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6%
3% Greensboro/Winston-Salem
0% • The resurgence of Winston-Salem’s downtown area as a live-
* 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18*
work-play environment will continue to keep this area highly
competitive with bidding. Here, Class C assets exchanged hands
at an average of $55,000 per door with a mid-7 percent cap.
Sales Trends
Sales Price Growth
• Metrowide, Class C assets traded at an average of $45,900 per
* Cap rate trailing 12-month average through 3Q; Treasury rate as of Sept. 28. door, with an average cap rate in the mid-7 percent range.
Price per Unit (000s)
$120
Includes sales $1 million and greater for Charlotte, Raleigh and12%
Year-over-Year Gro
Greensboro/Winston-Salem.
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
$90 9%
$60 6%
Charlotte
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
Employment Trends Local Apartment
EMPLOYMENT:
EMPLOYMENT:
Yield Trends
Metro United States Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate
6.0% 2.5% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
• Charlotte employers created 29,500 positions over the
Year-over-Year Change
12%
4.5% past four quarters, up slightly from 28,400 one year ear-
9%lier. The government and professional and business ser-
3.0% vices sectors each contributed more than 8,300 jobs.
Rate
6%
1.5% • Hiring dropped the unemployment rate to 3.4 percent
3%in September, the lowest rate since 2000. The tight rate
0% makes it harder for firms to find workers.
0%
14 15 16 17 18* 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18*
Year-over-Year Growth
12 • Builders finalized 7,800 apartments during the past 12
$90
months, up 200 units from the prior9%year’s level. The
Units (000s)
6%
Metro United States 20 basis point decrease in vacancy Y-O-Y
RENTS:
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change 4.6% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y
$1,200 8% • Lower vacancy supports rent growth. During the last four
Year-over-Year Change
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
6%
averaging 6.1 percent in the third quarter. Initial returns
East Charlotte 3.9% -50 $941 3.1%
1.5% for newer Class A assets can dip below 5 percent.
SALES TRENDS
3%
Southwest Charlotte 3.9% -50 $1,050 5.1% Outlook: Older Class C properties in outlying counties
0%
0% at cap rates above 7 percent, attracting yield-
can trade
14 15 16 17 18* 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18*
Gaston County 4.1% 0 $903 6.2% seeking investors.
$120 12%
Year-over-Year Growth
5%
Rate
Raleigh
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
Employment Trends EMPLOYMENT:
Metro United States 2.8% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
4%
Year-over-Year Change
Year-over-Year Growth
5,260 units were finalized, just 70 rentals
$105 12%shy of the prior
Units (000s)
6
year. Developers were most active in the North Cary/
$70
Morrisville area where 1,445 apartments8% were delivered.
4
• $35
Builders also have roughly 8,800 units under
4% construction
2
with completion dates scheduled into 2020 and more
$0
rentals are planned. 0%
0
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
8%
Metro United States 60 basis point decrease Y-O-Y
7%
• Renter demand outpaced new inventory year over year,
Vacancy Rate
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
Southwest Durham 4.4% -80 $1,051 3.8% time, the metro’s average cap dipped 10 basis points
1% to 5.4 percent, the lowest among Carolina metros.
SALES TRENDS
$140 16%
8
Year-over-Year Growth
6
Northeast Raleigh 5.0% -190 $1,041 2.9% $70 8%
4
East Durham 5.1% 0 $1,001 6.7% $35 4%
2
Chapel Hill/Carrboro 5.1% -230 $1,138 6.1% $0 0%
0
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
Overall Metro 4.8% -60 $1,106 3.5%
7%
Rate
Greensboro/Winston-Salem
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
EMPLOYMENT:
Employment Trends
Metro United States 1.6% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
4%
• The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest rate since
Year-over-Year Change
CONSTRUCTION:
Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Completions Absorption 970 units completed
Sales Y-O-Y
Price Growth
Year-over-Year Growth
$60one year ago, developers finalized 12%nearly 970 rentals
Units (000s)
VACANCY:
Vacancy Rate Trends
8%
Metro United States 40 basis point decrease in vacancy Y-O-Y
RENTS:
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change 4.4% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
Lowest Vacancy Rates 3Q18 Potential For Higher Yields Will Keep
Metro on Buyers’ Radar
Employment Trends
Y-O-Y
Vacancy
Metro Basis Point Effective
United StatesY-O-Y %
Submarket
Rate Rents Change • Deal flow declined 25 percent during the past four
Change
4% quarters as fewer quality properties were available.
Year-over-Year Change
High Point 4.6% 30 $779 4.7% cap rate contracted 70 basis points to 7.0 percent.
0%
14 15 16 17 18* • Outlook: The highest average cap rate among major
North Winston-Salem 4.6% -80 $813 3.8% North Carolina metros will lure yield-seeking buyers.
West Greensboro
Completions
4.8%
and Absorption
-100 $863 4.7%
Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales Price Growth
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$80 16%
North Greensboro 4 5.2% -100 $736 1.9%
Year-over-Year Growth
$60 12%
Units (000s)
3
South Greensboro 5.3% -30 $808 4.7%
$40 8%
2
0 $0 0%
Overall Metro 14 5.0% 15 -40 16 $810 17 18*
4.4% 14 15 16 17 18*
7%
Rate
Multifamily Research | Market Report
CAPITAL MARKETS
Fed meeting. After the Federal Reserve lifted overnight rates and
maintained a positive economic outlook, long-term interest rates have
pushed higher. The 10-Year Treasury yield has quickly traded toward
Apartment Mortgage Originations the 3.25 percent range, which is prompting lenders to pass on the
By Lender increased cost to borrowers. However, fierce competition for loans is
100% also leading to some cost absorption among lenders. While greater
borrowing costs may prompt buyers to seek higher cap rates, strong
Percent of Dollar Volume
75% Gov't Agency economic performance should enable rent growth above inflation. As
Financial/Insurance a result, sellers remain committed to higher asking prices, which is
Reg'l/Local Bank
50% widening an expectation gap as property performance and demand
Nat'l Bank/Int'l Bank
CMBS trends remain positive.
25% Pvt/Other
• The capital markets environment continues to be highly
competitive. Government agencies remain the largest source of
0%
14 15 16 17 18* funds, commanding slightly over 50 percent market share. National
and regional banks control approximately a quarter of the market.
* Through 2Q Pricing resides in the high-4 percent realm with maximum leverage of
Include sales $2.5 million and greater 75 percent. Portfolio lenders will typically require loan-to-value ratios
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics
closer to 70 percent with interest rates in the low-5 percent range.
The passage of tax reform and rising fiscal stimulus will keep the U.S.
economy growing, underpinning strong rental demand and supporting
a national apartment vacancy rate of 4.6 percent at the end of 2018.
National Multi Housing Group
Visit www.MarcusMillichap.com/Multifamily
John Sebree
First Vice President, National Director | National Multi Housing Group
Tel: (312) 327-5417
john.sebree@marcusmillichap.com
Price: $750
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no
representation, warranty or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information contained herein. Note: Metro-level employment
growth is calculated based on the last month of the quarter/year. Sales data includes transactions valued at $1,000,000 and greater unless otherwise noted. This is not intend-
ed to be a forecast of future events and this is not a guaranty regarding a future event. This is not intended to provide specific investment advice and should not be considered
as investment advice.
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.; Experian; National Association of Realtors; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital
Analytics; RealPage, Inc.; TWR/Dodge Pipeline; U.S. Census Bureau