Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
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6%
remaining upside will continue to scour the county.
3%
0%
West Palm Beach
8* 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18* • Out-of-state capital was most abundant in Palm Beach County,
where investors deployed more than $1 billion over the past four
quarters, on par with the prior yearlong period.
Sales Trends
• Region-leading expansion of the traditional renter cohort has
Sales Price Growth
investors hurrying to acquire assets near employment hubs.
ge Price per Unit (000s)
$180 24%
* Cap rate trailing 12-month average through 3Q; Treasury rate as of Sept. 28
Year-over-Year Growt
Includes sales $1 million and greater for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Sources: CoStar$160Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics 16%
$140 8%
$120 0%
Miami-Dade
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
EMPLOYMENT:
Employment Trends Local Apartment Yield Trends
Metro United States Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate
4%
4.6% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
• Aided
12% by robust post-hurricane hiring, 52,700 jobs were
Year-over-Year Change
Rate
• The
6%trade, transportation and utilities sector led hiring, in-
1% creasing payrolls by 10,300 jobs, followed by education
and
3%health services hiring with 10,000 new jobs. The job-
0% less rate fell 80 basis points to 3.9 percent in September.
0%
14 15 16 17 18* 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18*
CONSTRUCTION:
Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Completions Absorption 5,200 units completed
Sales Y-O-Y
Price Growth
Year-over-Year Growth
ing the trailing 12-month total in line with the amount of
$160 16%
Units (000s)
4 • $140 8%
Square Station, located in the Entertainment District,
was the largest delivery of the past year at 710 units,
$120 0%
2 followed by Mila, a 684-door garden-style property in
Miami Gardens.
$100 -8%
0
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
VACANCY:
Vacancy Rate Trends
Metro United States 20 basis point decrease in vacancy Y-O-Y
8%
• Robust net absorption led to a declining vacancy rate,
6% reaching 3.7 percent in the third quarter. One year earlier
Vacancy Rate
RENTS:
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change 5.5% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y
$1,700 8% • The average effective rent rose to $1,586 per month in the
third quarter, posting the strongest annualized rent increase
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$1,425 6% since the end of 2015. A 4.7 percent increase was regis-
tered one year ago.
$1,150 4%
• Class C complexes led the market with a 4.9 percent in-
$875 2% crease to $1,035 per month, followed by Class B units,
which were up 4.5 percent to $1,549 per month.
$600 0%
14 15 16 17 18*
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
Lowest Vacancy Rates 3Q18 Suburban Miami Assets Highlight Deal Flow;
Prices Decline
Employment
Y-O-Y Trends Local Apartment Yield Trends
Vacancy Effective Y-O-Y %
Submarket Basis Point • Transaction velocity over the 12 Treasury
monthsRate
through
Rate
Metro ChangeUnitedRents
States Change Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year
4% September rose 14 percent in comparison with the
prior12%
period, carried higher by a sizable increase to
Year-over-Year Change
Rate
1%
Homestead/South Dade
2.6% -10 $1,113 3.9% upper-5
3% percent territory.
County
0%
Outlook:0%Increased investment in some of Miami’s smaller
Miami Gardens 14 3.3% 15 90 16 $1,198 17 4.3% 18* submarkets00will 02
help04to boost
06 08property
10 12metrics
14 16 and18*
push
rents higher, boosting investor demand.
West Miami/Doral 3.7% -200 $1,878 7.1%
Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales Price Growth
Westchester/Kendall 3.9% -30 $1,505 3.4%
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$180 24%
8
Year-over-Year Growth
6
Downtown Miami/South
4.6% 120 $2,086 2.7% $140 8%
Beach 4
0 $100 -8%
Overall Metro 3.7% -20 $1,586 5.5%
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
6%
ate
Fort Lauderdale
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
Employment Trends EMPLOYMENT:
Metro United States
4.4% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
4%
Year-over-Year Change
Year-over-Year Growth
bringing the year-over-year total below12%
$120 the 3,600 units
Units (000s)
4.5
built during the prior period.
$80 8%
3.0 • Deliveries were greatest in Hollywood, where 745
apartments came online, followed by 4%
$40 Fort Lauderdale
1.5
proper with a 12-month total of 664 units. Pembroke
0 Pines/Miramar
$0 came in third with 540 new
0% units.
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
6%
Metro United States 80 basis point decrease in vacancy Y-O-Y
5%
• Net absorption of more than 4,200 units pushed the va-
Vacancy Rate
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
Lowest Vacancy Rates 3Q18 Deal Flow Rises as Price Growth Slows;
Buyers Focus on Class C Properties
EmploymentY-O-Y Trends
Vacancy Effective Y-O-Y %
Submarket
Rate
Metro
Basis Point
UnitedRents
States Change • Deal flow climbed 18 percent over the past 12 months,
Change
4% lifted by a substantive rise in sales activity in the city of
Fort Lauderdale south to Hallandale Beach.
Year-over-Year Change
3%
Hollywood 3.2% -170 $1,429 2.4%
• A 3 percent increase to the average price was recorded,
climbing to $150,200 per unit. The average cap rate
2%
SUBMARKET TRENDS
Coral Springs
Completions
4.7%
and Absorption
-140 $1,630 6.5%
Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales Price Growth
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$120 12%
Units (000s)
4.5
Plantation/Davie/Weston 5.1% -80 $1,736 5.1%
$80 8%
3.0
Sunrise/Lauderhill 5.5% 10 $1,333 4.8%
$40 4%
1.5
5%
ate
West Palm Beach
3Q18 – 12-MONTH PERIOD
Employment Trends EMPLOYMENT:
6.0%
Metro United States
3.7% increase in total employment Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Year-over-Year Growth
$175were completed, keeping the 12-month 8%total below the
Units (000s)
3
3,200 rentals built during the prior yearlong period.
$150 4%
2
• Deliveries over the trailing 12 months through Septem-
1 $125ber were greatest in the Boynton Beach/Delray
0% Beach
submarket with 968 new apartments, followed by West
0 $100Palm Beach where inventory increased by 591 rentals.
-4%
14 15 16 17 18* 14 15 16 17 18*
* Forecast
Multifamily Research | Market Report
DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS
3Q18 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3Q18 AFFORDABILITY GAP MULTIFAMILY (5+ Units) PERMITS
*Mortgage payments based on quarterly median home price with a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage, 90% LTV, taxes, insurance and PMI. **2017-2022 Annualized Rate
4.5%
flow for Palm Beach County in line with the prior period.
• The average price held relatively stable at $167,900 per
Lake Worth/Greenacres/
3.0%
Wellington
3.6% -80 $1,287 1.8% unit, while a 20-basis-point increase to the average cap
SUBMARKET TRENDS
West Palm Beach 0% 5.6% -90 $1,372 3.5% average are drawn to outlying suburbs, where low- to
14 15 16 17 18* mid-7 percent cap rates are obtainable.
$200 12%
North Palm Beach County
4 6.1% 60 $1,598 2.4%
Year-over-Year Growth
$175 8%
Units (000s)
1 $125 0%
6%
y Rate
Multifamily Research | Market Report
CAPITAL MARKETS
Fed meeting. After the Federal Reserve lifted overnight rates and
Apartment Mortgage Originations maintained a positive economic outlook, long-term interest rates have
By Lender pushed higher. The 10-Year Treasury yield has quickly traded toward
100% the 3.25 percent range, which is prompting lenders to pass on the
Losincreased
Angeles:cost to borrowers. However, fierce competition New York forCity
Percent of Dollar Volume
loans is
75% Gov't Agency Adam Christofferson
also leading to some cost absorption among lenders. While Senior
Senior Vice President/Division Manager J.D. Parker Vice President/D
greater
Financial/Insurance (818) 212-2700 | adam.christofferson@marcusmillichap.com 260 Madison Avenue 5th Floor New
borrowing costs may prompt buyers to seek higher cap
(212) rates, |strong
430-5100 jd.parker@marcusm
Reg'l/Local Bank Jimeconomic
Markel Regional Manager | Encino
50% performance should enable rent growth above inflation. As
Nat'l Bank/Int'l Bank (818) 212-2700 | jim.markel@marcusmillichap.com John Kruger Regional Manager | M
CMBS a result, sellers remain committed to higher asking (212)prices,
430-5157which is
| john.kruger@marcu
25% Pvt/Other Tony Solomon
widening an First Vice President/Regional Manager | West L.A.
expectation gap as property performance and demand
(310) 909-5500 | tony.solomon@marcusmillichap.com John Horowitz First Vice President
trends remain positive. 1 MetroTech Center, Suite 2001
0% Enrique Wong Vice President/Regional Manager | Downtown L.A. Brooklyn, NY 11201
14 15 16 17 18* • The
(818) capital
212-2700 markets environment
| jim.markel@marcusmillichap.com continues
(718) to be highly
475-4310 | john.horowitz@mar
Damon Wyler Regional
competitive. Government agencies remain the largest source of
Manager | Long Beach
(562)funds,
257-1200 | damon.wyler@marcusmillichap.com Brooklyn Office
* Through 2Q commanding slightly over 50 percent market share. National
Include sales $2.5 million and greater and regional banks control approximately a quarter of the Horowitz John market. Vice Pres
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics 1 MetroTech Center, Suite 20
Pricing resides in the high-4 percent realm with maximum leverage
Brooklyn, of
NY 11201
75 percent. Portfolio lenders will typically require loan-to-value ratios| john.horowi
(718) 475-4300
closer to 70 percent with interest rates in the low-5 percent Manhattan range.
Office
The passage of tax reform and rising fiscal stimulus will John keep the U.S. Regional M
Krueger
Louisville Office: 260supporting
Madison Avenue, 5th Flo
economy growing, underpinning strong rental demand and
National Multi Housing Group New York, NY 10016
a national
Richard apartment
Matricaria Seniorvacancy rate of 4.6
Vice President/Division percent at the (212)
Manager end 430-5100|
of 2018.brian.hosey@
9300 Shelbyville Road, Suite 1012
Visit www.MarcusMillichap.com/Multifamily Louisville, KY 40222 New Jersey Office:
(502) 329-5900 | richard.matricaria@marcusmillichap.com
Brian Hosey Regional Manager
John Sebree 250 Pehle Avenue, Suite 501
First Vice President, National Director | National Multi Housing Group Miami Office: Saddle Brook, NJ 07663
Tel: (312) 327-5417 (201) 742-6100 | brian.hosey@marcu
john.sebree@marcusmillichap.com
Scott Lunine Vice President/Regional Manager
5201 Blue Lagoon Drive, Suite 100 Newport Beach Office:
Prepared and edited by Miami, FL 33126
Michael Murphy (786) 522-7000 | scott.lunine@marcusmillichap.com Jonathan Giannola Regional M
Research Analyst | Research Services 19800 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 1
Milwaukee Office: Irvine, CA 92612
For information on national apartment trends, contact: Fort Lauderdale Office: (949) 419-3200 | jonathan.giannola@
John Chang Todd Lindblom Regional Manager
Senior Vice President, National Director | Research Services Ryan Nee Vice
13890 Bishops President/Regional
Drive, Suite 300 Manager
Tel: (602) 707-9700 5900 N.eld,
Brookfi Andrews Avenue, Suite 100
WI 53005 Oakland Office:
john.chang@marcusmillichap.com Fort
(262)Lauderdale,
364-1900 |FL 33309
todd.lindblom@marcusmillichap.com
(954) 245-3400 | ryan.nee@marcusmillichap.com
David C. Nelson Regional Man
555 12th Street, Suite 1750
Price: $750
Oakland, CA 94607
Minneapolis Office: (510) 379-1200 | david.nelson@mar
© Marcus & Millichap 2018 | www.MarcusMillichap.com