Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz
(jesus.san-miguel@ec.europa.eu)
& the EFFIS Team
(jrc-effis@ec.europa.eu)
7. Megafires?
9. Conclusions
EU Countires
PT, ES, FR, UK, IT, CH, DE, SE, NO, BE, CZ, AT, SI, HR,FI, PL, SK, HU, MK,
GR, EE, LV, LT, RO, BG, TR, CY, IE, MA, LB, ME, BS, KO, AL, RU, ALG, LEB, MOR, TUN, IL, GE
<100 ha 32.8 9,639.2 2,582.0 1,327.9 1,669.4 25,419.7 10,385.5 51,056.5 5.4%
>=100 and <500 ha 639.6 20,942.0 5,015.3 4,250.6 11,691.4 66,906.0 28,136.6 137,581.5 14.6%
>=500 and < 1000 ha 0.0 16,543.8 2,812.0 2,983.3 12,201.6 15,454.4 30,103.7 80,098.8 8.5%
>=1000 ha 0.0 83,264.3 10,214.4 11,217.6 41,800.3 33,645.3 495,164.6 675,306.5 71.5%
20,623.7
130,389.3
19,779.4
67,362.8
563,790.3 141,425.4
CY ES FR GR HR IT PT
Corresponds to over 95% of total burnt area mapped by EFFIS in the EU in 2017
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
04 Aug
11 Aug
18 Aug
25 Aug
14 Jan
21 Jan
28 Jan
11 Feb
18 Feb
25 Feb
07 Apr
14 Apr
21 Apr
28 Apr
01 Sep
08 Sep
15 Sep
22 Sep
29 Sep
03 Nov
10 Nov
17 Nov
24 Nov
03 Mar
10 Mar
17 Mar
24 Mar
31 Mar
05 May
12 May
19 May
26 May
02 Jun
09 Jun
16 Jun
23 Jun
30 Jun
07 Jul
14 Jul
21 Jul
28 Jul
06 Oct
13 Oct
20 Oct
27 Oct
ES FR GR HR IT PT RO
80,000 4.5
4.0
70,000
3.5
60,000
3.0
50,000
2.5
40,000
2.0
30,000
1.5
20,000
1.0
10,000 0.5
0 0.0
Nearly 25% of the total burnt area in the EU occurred in Natura 2000 sites
How to face Megafires in Europe, Gulbenkian Foundation, Space effis@jrc.ec.europa.eu San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2013, Forest Ecology and
Lisbon, 15-16.02.2018 Management, 294, 11-22.
How to face Megafires in Europe, Gulbenkian Foundation, Space effis@jrc.ec.europa.eu
Lisbon, 15-16.02.2018
EU number of fires and burnt area
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
07 21 04 18 03 17 31 14 28 12 26 09 23 07 21 04 18 01 15 29 13 27 10 24 08 22 31
Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec
BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT LV PT RO SE SI UK
EU - Support to countries by other Member States via the Union Civil Protection Mechanism
1,200,000 10
9
1,000,000
8
7
Burned area (ha)
800,000
6
SSR
600,000 Burned
5 area vs Monthly Severity Rating in EUMed
4 (June to October 1985-2005)
400,000
3
500,000
450,000 2
y = 2199.1e0.4099x
200,000
R1 square – 87%
R2 = 0.7551
area (ha)
400,000
- 350,000 0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 300,000
Monthly burned
250,000
Burned area SSR 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Amatulli et al. 2013
MSR
700
600
500
NUmber of large fires
1,200,000
300
1,000,000
200
SizeClass
100 800,000 >20,000
10,000-20,000
5,000-10,000
0 600,000 1,000-5,000
500-1,000
<5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-40 40-50 >50
FWI ranges
400,000
200,000
-
<10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 >50
How to face Megafires in Europe, Gulbenkian Foundation, Space effis@jrc.ec.europa.eu
FWIclass
Lisbon, 15-16.02.2018
Fire Danger Projections under Climate Change scenarios
(Drought Code)
Lack of proper fuel management and landscape planning in fire prone areas is
increasing the risk of critical fires
Abandonment of rural areas
• Wildfires are a recurrent phenomenon in Europe, resulting in the loss of human lives and
large environmental and economic damages.
• Megafires, which are frequent events, result from the concentration of large fires in space
and time, leading to the inability of efficient wildfire control and extinction.
• Short term analysis of wildfires in Europe (approx. 30 years) shows an increase in the
length of wildfire season, with critical fires within and on the edge of the traditional fire
season June-September (e.g. Portugal, Spain, Italy, France...)
• Climate change is already noticeable; it will lead to an increase of the level of wildfire risk
and the expansion of the areas at risk in Europe.
• However, despite the above, wildfires in Europe are human-caused; the focus should be
on prevention/planning, awareness and education of the population, while being ready for
fire fighting.
jrc-effis@jrc.ec.europa.eu
http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu
http://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu