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Macroeconomics I
E e
1 + i$ = 1 + i + $
E$
E$e
i$ = i +
E$
X (Y * , e ) − M (Y , e ) + + ( r − r * ) = 0
The equation for the BP curve is
Derivation of the BP curve:
r0
Y
Y0
UOL - Macro I Review
X (Y * , e ) − M (Y , e ) + + ( r − r * ) = 0
The equation for the BP curve is
Derivation of the BP curve:
We start at Y0,r0. r BP
If Y increases to Y1:
Imports rise. Interest rates
must rise to achieve the BP
equilibrium (a deterioration in r1
the CA should be offset with
an improvement in the FA).
Intuitively, a higher trade r0
deficit should be financed via
more capital inflows,
something that will only occur Y
as long as the domestic Y0 Y1
interest rate is higher (taken
as given r*)
UOL - Macro I Review
BP Curve Details
CA + FA = 0
X (Y * , e ) − M (Y , e ) + + ( r − r * ) = 0
Then X (Y * , e ) − M (Y , e ) + + ( r − r * ) = 0
r − r* = −
1
( X (Y , e ) − M (Y , e ) + )
*
r = r* −
1
( X (Y , e ) − M (Y , e ) + )
*
if → r Case: perfect
capital mobility**
Case: partial BP
r capital BP
if = 0 mobility Y
Y Case: low
r capital mobility
if 0 BP
r Case: no capital
mobility***
if =0 Y
Y
** Interpretation: local and foreign assets are perfect substitutes *** In this case, NX=0 and FA=0
UOL - Macro I Review
BP
Y
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BP
Y
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Y
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BP
Y
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Y
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BP
Y
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Y
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BP
Y
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BP
Y
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Y
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BP
Y
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BP
Y
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Y
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With no CM: FA = 0 = X − M
There is no effect on capital flows,
simply because the FA=0 (i.e. interest
rate differentials are irrelevant). A
fiscal policy expansion will
determined a higher demand for
imports, or a tendency towards a
trade deficit. A temporary trade
Y
deficit implies that the demand for r IS BP LM
foreign currency is higher, creating a
pressure to increase e. The Central
Bank will offset this higher demand
for dollars, selling dollars and
receiving local currency in exchange,
or contracting the supply of local
currency or money (i.e. the LM shifts
to the right to maintain the exchange
rate fixed) Y
UOL - Macro I Review
Y
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Y
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Y
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Y
UOL - Macro I Review
The Exam
▪ El examen de doble grado tiene varias preguntas que son una
aplicacion directa de este framework (IS-LM-BP)
▪ Questions:
▪Q12 of 2014 exam: imperfect capital mobility + perfect capital
mobility + increase in money supply + zero capital mobility
▪Q10 of 2015 exam: perfect capital mobility + fall in
autonomous consumption + UIP with change in expected ER
▪Q9 of 2016 exam: perfect capital mobility + increase in G +
use of the CPI instead of the PPI in the money market
UOL - Macro I Review
Comments on (a): Show how the internal and external equilibria are determined
Definitions
S priv = (Y − T ) − C
S pub = T − G
S = S priv + S pub = Y − C − G
Y − C − G = I + NX
S − I = CA
S I CA 0 FA 0
S I CA 0 FA 0
S priv + S pub − CA = I
S priv + FA = I − S pub
S priv + FA = I + fiscal.deficit
M
= o + Y Y − r r
Pc
1 M
r= o + Y Y −
r P + (1 − ) ES /. perUS $ P*
1 M Y
r = o − *
+ Y
r P + (1 − ) ES /. perUS $ P r
UOL - Macro I Review
r = r* BP BP
1 M Y
LM : r= o − *
+ Y
r P + (1 − ) ES /. perUS $ P r
Y Y
r IS LM r IS LM
r = r* BP BP
Y Y
UOL - Macro I Review
BP BP
1 M Y
LM : r= o − *
+ Y
r P + (1 − ) ES /. perUS $ P r
Y Y
r IS LM r IS LM
BP BP
Y Y
UOL - Macro I Review
Comments on (a): Show how the internal and external equilibria are determined
No comments
Comments on (c): Use the “complete” UIP theory ( r = r + ( e e ) ) and assume that
* e
ee * ee 1
X (Y , e ) − M (Y , e ) + + r − r −
* *
=0 r = r + − ( + Y * + e + ) + Y
e e