The geopolitical impact seems to be a “forgotten dimension” of Brexit.

The EU will
become far less important and its influence on foreign policy within the UN and in
a wider global context diminished. The EU’s own internal power dynamics will also
become fundamentally imbalanced: the political and institutional reverberations for the
Union itself would be far greater than any economic fallout. Britain’s exit would
embolden other member states to consider their position within the EU. For China,
which has invested time and resources into forging relations with the UK and EU, the
prospect of Brexit also presents many challenges.

UK-EU Relations
Although it often has frictions with the EU, the UK, as the second-largest economic
entity, a nuclear power, and permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,
has been known as part of the EU troika along with France and Germany. Its role is
irreplaceable, particularly in EU diplomacy and defence policies. With Brexit, the EU, as
an important international actor, will inevitably see its role and influences decline.

Due to the European debt crisis, the increasing threat of terrorism, and the refugee
crisis, conflicts and divergences have been on the rise among EU members. The
resurgence of extremism and populism has undermined the EU’s internal cohesion,
creating new troubles for European integration. The results of the German election will
mean that there will be coalition talks between the chancellor Merkel Christian
Democrats CDU/CSU and the Free Democratic (FDP) and the Green party which will
probably last until December 2017. This means that Germany may not have a
government until January 2018. This makes the political climate in which any Brexit
negotiations are taking place more uncertain.

Potential consequences of Brexit such as the breakup of the UK are becoming clearer
with the Scottish Government pushing to remain inside the EU Single Market and the
possibility of having to erect hard borders between Northern Ireland and the Irish
Republic.

The financial concessions made to the DUP by Prime Minister Theresa May’s
conservatives have produced a reaction in Scotland and Wales. In Northern Ireland,
Sinn Fein was strengthened both in the regional elections in May 2017 and in the 2017
general election.

May continues to repeat her Brexit mantras. She tries to project the image of getting on
with the job, working to get a good deal, always talking as if the outcome is certain. But
it’s not certain at all. May’s speech in Florence on 22 September has been welcomed as
a step in the right direction. The lack of detail is persistent in areas such as citizens’
rights and especially Northern Ireland. May remains an optimist on Brexit, but close
observers think even she makes the fatal mistake that sank David Cameron – of
thinking all this can ultimately be sorted between politicians.
May is trapped by the toxic politics that put her into office a year ago and the growing
realisation that Brexit is heading to be an economic and diplomatic disaster for Britain.
Her essential stance in the election was that the country should rally behind her Brexit
strategy. The UK electorate clearly opposed that proposition.