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Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

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Information Sciences
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ins

Hybrid learning mechanism for interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton type-2


Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic systems
Gerardo M. Méndez a,⇑, Maria de los Angeles Hernández b
a
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Instituto Tecnológico de Nuevo León, Cd. Guadalupe, N.L., Mexico
b
Department of Economics and Administration Sciences, Instituto Tecnológico de Nuevo León, Cd. Guadalupe, N.L., Mexico

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A proposed learning methodology based on a hybrid mechanism for training interval A2-C1
Received 15 November 2010 type-2 non-singleton type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic systems uses a recursive
Received in revised form 12 December 2011 square-root filter to tune the type-1 consequent parameters and the steepest descent
Accepted 11 January 2012
method to tune the interval type-2 antecedent parameters. The proposed hybrid-learning
Available online 20 January 2012
algorithm changes the interval type-2 model parameters adaptively to minimize some cri-
terion function as new information becomes available and to match desired input–output
Keywords:
data pairs. Its antecedent sets are type-2 fuzzy sets, its consequent sets are type-1 fuzzy
Hybrid-learning mechanism
Interval A2-C1 type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang
sets, and its inputs are interval type-2 non-singleton fuzzy numbers with uncertain stan-
fuzzy logic system dard deviations. As reported in the literature, the performance indices of hybrid models
ANFIS have proved to be better than those of the individual training mechanisms used alone.
Temperature prediction Comparison with non-hybrid interval A2-C1 type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic sys-
tems and with non-hybrid A1-C0 type-1 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic systems shows
that the proposed hybrid mechanism is a well-performing non-linear adaptive method that
enables the interval type-2 fuzzy model to match an unknown non-linear mapping and to
converge very fast. Experiments were carried out involving the application of the hybrid
interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic systems for
modeling and prediction of the scale-breaker entry temperature in a hot strip mill for three
different types of coils. The results demonstrate how the interval type-2 fuzzy system
learns from selected input–output data pairs and improves its performance as hybrid train-
ing progresses.
Ó 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Interval type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy logic systems are capable of approximating any real continuous function on a
compact set to arbitrary accuracy. To use interval type-2 fuzzy systems as identifiers for non-linear dynamic systems, it is
necessary to update and tune the fuzzy parameters so that they perform the desired non-linear mappings. This paper reports
the development of a hybrid training algorithm to train fuzzy systems to match desired input–output data pairs.
Interval type-2 (IT2) fuzzy logic systems (FLS) are a mature technology [42,48,51,53]. The processes of financial
systems [5,24,36], hot strip mills (HSM) [56,57,60], autonomous mobile robots [6,21,44,71], intelligent controllers
[7,23,25,30,41,66,68,72,73,75,81,88], clustering systems [4,86], medical systems [1,35], vision and pattern recognition sys-
tems [28,45,47,64], granular computing and optimization [69], database and information systems [67], and plant monitoring
and diagnostics [10,11,18,19,41,43,46] are characterized by high uncertainty, non-linearity, and time-varying behavior

⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +52 8183172547.


E-mail address: gmm_paper@yahoo.com.mx (G.M. Méndez).

0020-0255/$ - see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ins.2012.01.024
150 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

[16,83]. Interval type-2 fuzzy sets (FS) make it possible to model the effects of uncertainties [15,17,29,37,40,49,52,78,84,91]
and to minimize them by optimizing the parameters of an interval type-2 fuzzy set during the learning process.
In [51], both single-pass and steepest-descent methods are presented as IT2 Mamdani FLS learning methods, but only
steepest-descent is presented as a learning mechanism for IT2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) FLS systems. When the steepest
descent method is used in both Mamdani and TSK FLS, none of the antecedent and consequent parameters of the IT2 FLS is
fixed at the start of the training process; they are tuned using the steepest-descent method exclusively. In [51], hybrid learn-
ing algorithms based on recursive parameter-estimation methods such as recursive least-squares (RLS) or recursive square-
root filters (REFIL) [2] (a Kalman-type filter) are not presented as IT2 FLS learning mechanisms.
A feedforward neural network (FFNN) is a layered architecture, and its parameters (weights) can be optimized using the
method of steepest descent, called in this case the backpropagation (BP) algorithm. In this algorithm, the output error is
propagated in a backward direction from the output layer down into the inner layers, hence the name ‘‘backpropagation’’.
In an FLS, the output error is also propagated from the output layer down into the inner layers, and therefore this algorithm
is also referred to as a backpropagation algorithm.
The aim of this work is to present a REFIL-BP-based hybrid learning mechanism for antecedent and consequent parameter
tuning for interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton type-2 TSK FLS systems. Here, the names of such hybrid-adapted systems will
be abbreviated based on the input type: the name IT2 TSK SFLS will be used for interval singleton type-2 TSK FLS systems
with inputs modeled as crisp numbers (Fig. 1); IT2 TSK NSFLS1 will be used for interval type-1 non-singleton type-2 TSK
FLS systems with inputs modeled as type-1 fuzzy numbers (Fig. 2); and IT2 TSK NSFLS2 will be used for interval type-2
non-singleton type-2 TSK FLS systems with inputs modeled as type-2 fuzzy numbers (Fig. 3). In addition, the names of such
hybrid-adapted systems will be abbreviated based on the antecedent and consequent fuzzy types, where ‘‘A’’ means ante-
cedent and ‘‘C’’ consequent. A2-C1 represents the most general case of an interval type-2 TSK FLS when its antecedents
are type-2 fuzzy sets, but its consequents are type-1 fuzzy sets; A1-C1 represents the case of an interval type-2 TSK FLS when
its antecedents and its consequents are both type-1 fuzzy sets; and A2-C0 represents the case of an interval type-2 TSK FLS
when its antecedents are type-2 fuzzy sets, but its consequents are crisp numbers. It is important to mention that this paper
focuses on the case of an interval A2-C1 TSK NSFLS2 system, so the A2-C1 specification can be omitted in the abbreviated
name; i.e., the hybrid interval A2-C1 singleton type-2 TSK FLS is called hybrid IT2 TSK SFLS; the hybrid interval A2-C1
type-1 non-singleton type-2 TSK FLS is called hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS1; and the hybrid interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton
type-2 TSK FLS is called hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2.
The hybrid algorithm for IT2 Mamdani type FLS systems has been presented elsewhere [55–57,59,61] with three combi-
nations of hybrid learning method: RLS-BP, REFIL-BP, and orthogonal least-squares OLS-BP.
For the case of TSK-type fuzzy logic systems, the hybrid algorithm method for interval singleton IT2 TSK SFLS [58,63] and
for interval type-1 non-singleton IT2 TSK NSFLS1 [54,62] has been presented using both RLS-BP and REFIL-BP.
In addition, Liang and Mendel [38] have presented an introduction to a type-2 TSK FLS design based on the type-1 or type-
2 natures of the antecedent memberships and consequent parameters.
Zheng et al. [90] offered a generic review of type-2 FLS theory of existing design methods and their applications for IT2
TSK FLS.

Fig. 1. IT2 TSK SFLS system.


G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 151

Fig. 2. IT2 TSK NSFLS1 system.

Fig. 3. IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system.

Zhang et al. [87] proposed an interval extension of the Gaussian mixture model called the uncertain Gaussian mixture
model (UGMM) and presented its transformation into additive type-2 TSK fuzzy systems. Instead of directly estimating
the parameters of the fuzzy rules in a type-2 TSK fuzzy system, they first estimated the parameters of the corresponding
UGMM using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm.
Ying [85] covered a general class of interval type-2 TS fuzzy systems with linear rule consequents. He proved construc-
tively that this class is a universal approximator by first proving that fuzzy systems can uniformly approximate any polyno-
mial arbitrarily accurately and then using the Weierstrass approximation theorem to complete the proof.
Castro et al. [14] proposed a class of interval type-2 fuzzy neural networks (IT2FNN) which is functionally equivalent to
interval type-2 fuzzy inference systems. The computational process envisioned for a fuzzy neural system starts with the
development of an ‘‘interval type-2 fuzzy neuron’’ which is based on biological neural morphologies, followed by develop-
ment of learning mechanisms. In [13], the authors proposed three interval type-2 fuzzy neural networks (IT2FNN) with
hybrid learning algorithm techniques (gradient descent and gradient descent with adaptive learning rate). In the antecedent
152 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

layer, an interval type-2 fuzzy neuron (IT2FN) model was used, and in the consequent layer, an interval type-1 fuzzy neuron
model (IT1FN) was used to fuzzify the rule antecedents and consequents of an interval type-2 Takagi–Sugeno–Kang fuzzy
inference system (IT2-TSK-FIS). The IT2-TSK-FIS system was integrated into an adaptive neural network to take advantage
of the best features of both models.
Mendoza et al. [65] presented a hybrid approach for image recognition combining type-2 fuzzy logic, modular neural net-
works, and the Sugeno integral. A type-2 fuzzy system was used for edge detection, which is a preprocessing step applied to
the training data to make them more usable in neural networks. Another type-2 fuzzy system was used to calculate the fuzzy
densities necessary for the Sugeno integral, which was used to integrate the results of the neural-network modules.
Stability analysis of IT2 TSK fuzzy-logic closed-loop control systems (FLCS) when the antecedents are type-2 fuzzy sets
and the consequents are crisp numbers (the A2-C0 case) has been investigated in terms of a systematic method using a lin-
ear-matrix-inequality-based algorithm [8] and in terms of a non-systematic method where linear matrix inequalities (LMIs)
are derived using a Lyapunov-based approach [31]. Both studies focused on the stability analysis of IT2 TSK systems and as-
sumed that the parameters of the membership functions were completely known and fixed, meaning that they were never
adapted. Identification and adaptation of the antecedent and consequent membership-functions parameter were not within
the scope of these papers.
Studies of interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton IT2 TSK NSFLS2 using hybrid REFIL-BP learning mechanisms as a training
method have not been found in the literature. However, there are publications referring to applications using only BP learn-
ing mechanism [33,39,70], publications referring to singleton inputs to IT2 TSK FLS systems [4,12,32,33,39,70,90], and refer-
ring to T1 TSK FLS systems [9,22,34,82,89].
In this research, an interval A2-C1 type-2 non-singleton type-2 TSK FLS system with REFIL-BP hybrid learning mechanism
has been developed and implemented for modeling and prediction of the transfer-bar temperature in a hot strip mill. To en-
able direct comparison of the performance and functionality of the proposed hybrid mechanism, the same input–output data
set as used in [54,58,61,63] was used. As mentioned, the intention of this paper is to present and discuss the proposed hy-
brid-learning algorithm for antecedent and consequent parameter tuning during initial adjustment training and the online
feedback processes of an interval type-2 non-singleton IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system using the REFIL-BP hybrid mechanism, and to
demonstrate its implementation in a real industrial application. Performance has been experimentally examined under the
same conditions as in previous work.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 gives the fundamentals of IT2 TSK fuzzy-logic systems in the A2-C1 case,
using recursive least-squares, REFIL, and backpropagation estimation algorithms. Section 3 presents the process of construct-
ing the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system for temperature prediction. Section 4 presents the initial-adjustment training process,
and Section 5 deals with the setup process. Section 6 presents the online feedback process with hybrid learning. Section 7
examines the stability of the system and describes a convergence analysis of the hybrid IT2 TSK system. Section 8 presents
the experimental results, and Section 9 summarizes the conclusions.

2. Foundations of the learning methodology

2.1. A2-C1 IT2 TSK fuzzy logic systems

e is characterized by a type-2 membership function


A type-2 fuzzy set [51], denoted by A, leA ðx; uÞ, where x 2 X and
u 2 Jx # [0, 1]:
e ¼ fððx; uÞ; l ðx; uÞÞj8x 2 X; 8u 2 J # ½0; 1g
A ð1Þ
e A
x

in addition, 0 6 le ðx; uÞ 6 1. This means that at a specific value of x, say x0 , there is no longer a single value, as for a type-1
A
membership function (u0 ) [51]; instead, the type-2 membership function takes on a set of values called the primary mem-
bership of x0 , u 2 Jx # [0, 1]. It is possible to assign an amplitude distribution to this set of points. This amplitude is called the
secondary grade of a general type-2 fuzzy set. When the values of the secondary grade are the same and equal to one, the
function is an interval type-2 membership function [29,40,52].
An IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system having p inputs x1 2 X1, . . ., xp 2 Xp and one output y 2 Y can be described by fuzzy IF-THEN
rules that represent the input–output relations of the system and that can be expressed as:

Ri : IF x1 is e
F i1 and . . . and xp is e
F ip
ð2Þ
THEN Y i ¼ C i0 þ C i1 x1 þ C i2 x2 þ    þ C ip xp

where i ¼ 1; . . . ; M;C ij ðj ¼ 0; 1; . . . ; pÞ are consequent type-1 fuzzy sets (C1); Yi, the output of the ith rule, is also a type-1 fuzzy
set, and e
F ik (k = 0, 1, . . . , p) are interval type-2 antecedent fuzzy sets (A2) described by Gaussians with uncertain means
[26,27,40,50,74,76,77].
In an IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system, the firing set of the ith rule is Fi(x), where
Y
p
F i ðxÞ ¼ lF ik ðxk Þ ¼ ½f i ðxÞ; f i ðxÞ ð3Þ
k¼1
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 153

and
 
lF ik ðxÞ ¼ leF i ðxk Þ; l eF i ðxÞ k ¼ 1; . . . ; p ð4Þ
k k

is the kth active branch of the ith rule, where

f i ðxÞ ¼ lF i ðx1 Þ      lF ip ðxp Þ ð5Þ


1

and
f i ðxÞ ¼ l
 F i ðx1 Þ      l
 F i ðxp Þ ð6Þ
1 p

is the firing set of the IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system. The ith consequent C ij is an interval set of the form:
h i
C ij ¼ cij þ sij ; cij  sij ð7Þ

where i
 icj denotes
 the center of C ij and sij denotes the spread of C ij (i = 1, . . ., M and j = 1, . . ., p). Then the consequent of Ri,
i i
Y ¼ yl ; yr , is an interval set and can be expressed as:
X
p X
p
yil ¼ cij xj þ ci0  jxj jsij  si0 ð8Þ
j¼1 j¼1

and
X
p X
p
yir ¼ cij xj þ ci0 þ jxj jsij þ si0 ð9Þ
j¼1 j¼1

The output of an IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system is an interval type-1 set YTSK,2 = [yl, yr].
It is then possible to defuzzify this set using the average yl and yr; the defuzzified output is:
yl þ yr
Y TSK;2 ¼ ð10Þ
2
where yl is
PM PL i i PM
i i
i¼1 f y þ
i i
i¼Lþ1 f yl
X
M
i¼1 fl yl
yl ¼ PM i ¼ PL l PM ¼ yil pil ðxÞ ¼ yTl pl ðxÞ ð11Þ
f i þ fi
i¼1 fl i¼1 i¼Lþ1 i¼1

and yr is
PM PR PM i yi
i i i i
i¼1 f yr þ i¼Rþ1 f
X
M
i¼1 fr yr r
yr ¼ PM i ¼ PR i PM ¼ yir pir ðxÞ ¼ yTr pr ðxÞ ð12Þ
i
i¼1 fr i¼1 f þ i¼Rþ1 f i¼1

In addition, if yil ¼ yir , this represents the case of an A2-C0 IT2 TSK FLS system.
In Eq. (2), when C ij (j = 0, 1, . . . , p) are consequent type-1 fuzzy sets (C1), Yi, the output of the ith rule, is also a type-1 fuzzy
set, and e
F ik (k = 0 1, . . . , p) are type-1 antecedent fuzzy sets (A1), which is the case of an A1-C1 IT2 TSK FLS. This is equal to a
type-1 TSK FLS because they both provide identical results.

2.2. The recursive least-squares method

This section provides a brief presentation of the basic principles of the recursive least-squares training method. As ex-
plained in [2], suppose that a particular system has one input u(k) and one output y(k) with an additive noise e(k) measured
during a certain number t periods of T. It is then possible to describe the dynamic behavior of this system using the next-
differences model:
X
n X
n
yðkÞ ¼ aj yðk  jÞ þ bj uðk  jÞ þ eðkÞ ð13Þ
j¼1 j¼0

where k = 1, 2, 3, . . ., t; aj,bj 2 R, and n = the system order.


This can be written in more compact form as:

yðkÞ ¼ pT zðkÞ þ eðkÞ; ð14Þ


where:

pT ¼ ½b0 ; a1 ; b1 ; . . . ; an ; bn  ð15Þ
154 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

is a parameter estimation matrix of size 2n + 1 and:

zT ðkÞ ¼ ½uðkÞ; yðk  1Þ; uðk  1Þ; . . . ; yðk  nÞ; uðk  nÞ ð16Þ
is a measurement vector of size 2n + 1.
The model expressed by Eq. (14) can be expressed for t input–output data pairs as:

YT ðtÞ ¼ PT ZT ðtÞ þ ET ðtÞ ð17Þ

where

YT ðtÞ ¼ ½yð1Þ; yð2Þ; . . . ; yðtÞ ð18Þ


is the output vector of size t,
2 3
uð1Þ; uð2Þ; . . . ; uðtÞ
6 7
6 yð0Þ; yð1Þ; . . . ; yðt  1Þ 7
6 7
6 7
6 uð0Þ; uð1Þ; . . . ; uðt  1Þ 7
6 7
6 7
ZT ðtÞ ¼ 6    7 ð19Þ
6 7
6 7
6 7
6 7
6 yð1  nÞ; yð2  nÞ; . . . ; yðt  nÞ 7
4 5
uð1  nÞ; uð2  nÞ; . . . ; uðt  nÞ
is the measurement matrix of size (2n + 1)  t, and:

ET ðtÞ ¼ ½eð1Þ; eð2Þ; . . . ; eðtÞ ð20Þ


is the noise vector of size t.
To estimate P, it is required to minimize the following criterion:

J ¼ ðYðtÞ  ZðtÞPðtÞÞT IðYðtÞ  ZððtÞÞPðtÞÞ ð21Þ


The symmetric and positive matrix C(t + 1) of size (2n + 1)  (2n + 1) is defined as:

Cðt þ 1Þ ¼ ½ZT ðt þ 1ÞZðt þ 1Þ1 ð22Þ

in addition, this matrix works as a covariance attenuation matrix for process identification.
Then the recursive algorithm for the recursive least-squares method can be stated as:

gðt þ 1Þ ¼ CðtÞzðt þ 1Þ ð23Þ


a2 ðt þ 1Þ ¼ u2 þ zT ðt þ 1Þgðt þ 1Þ ð24Þ
_ _
e ðt þ 1Þ ¼ yðt þ 1Þ  PT ðtÞzðt þ 1Þ ð25Þ
_ _ 1 _
PT ðt þ 1Þ ¼ PT ðtÞ þ 2 gðt þ 1Þ e ðt þ 1Þ ð26Þ
a ðt þ 1Þ
 
1 1
Cðt þ 1Þ ¼ 2 CðtÞ  2 gðt þ 1ÞgT ðt þ 1Þ ð27Þ
u a ðt þ 1Þ

where u is the forgetting factor, normally set to 1.0; g(t + 1) is an intermediate passing vector of size 2n + 1; a2(t + 1) is an
_
b
intermediate passing scalar value; and e ðt þ 1Þ is the next error estimate. The initial values of Pð0Þ can be interpreted as the
b
matrix of initial parameter initial estimates and Cð0Þ as its uncertainty.

2.3. The recursive square-root filter method

The linear system of equations:


Ax ¼ b ð28Þ
where A is a matrix of size m  n, x is a vector of size n, b is a vector of size m, and m > n, does not have an exact solution and
can be written as:
Ax  b ¼ e ð29Þ
where e is the error of any solution of Eq. (28). If:

AT A ¼ FT F ð30Þ
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 155

where F is any upper or lower triangular matrix of size n  n, then Eq. (28) can be written as:

Fx ¼ ðFT Þ1 AT b ð31Þ


A least-squares solution can be found using Eq. (31). Now, with Eq. (14) expressed as:

YðtÞ ¼ ZðtÞP þ EðtÞ ð32Þ


the least-squares solution of this system is:

½ZT ðtÞZðtÞPT ðtÞ ¼ ZT ðtÞYðtÞ ð33Þ


The square root of the covariance attenuation matrix C(t) is propagated in each period during the recursive parameter
estimation procedure. The square root of C(t) can be defined as a q  q upper triangular matrix:

GðtÞGT ðtÞ ¼ CðtÞ: ð34Þ


In this way, the covariance matrix C(t) is ensured to be always positive. If Q is an upper triangular matrix and Eq. (34) is
substituted into Eq. (27), the result:

1
Gðt þ 1Þ ¼ GðtÞQ ð35Þ
u
provides an update of the G(t) matrix for the next period. The Q matrix can be obtained using the Chelovsky matrix
factorization.
For each period, the recursive square-root filter algorithm updates the G(t + 1) matrix (35), the g(t + 1) vector (23), and the
a(t + 1) scalar value (24). Using Eqs. (25) and (26), the process parameters can be estimated.

2.4. The backpropagation method

As explained in [26,27], a squared error measure for the pth input–output pair can be defined as:
X
Ep ¼ k ðdk  xk Þ2 ð36Þ

where dk is the desired output for node k and xk is the actual output for node k when the input part of the pth data pair is
presented. To find the gradient vector, an error term ei for node i is defined as:

@ þ Ep
ei ¼ ð37Þ
@ xi
By the chain rule of calculus, a recursive formula for ei can then be written as:
8
@xi
>
< 2ðdi  xi Þ @xi ¼ 2ðdi  xi Þxi ð1  xi Þ
ei ¼ @xi P @ þ Ep @xj P ð38Þ
>
: @xi ¼ @ xj @xi
¼ xi ð1  xi Þ ej xij
j;i<j j;i<j

where xij is the weight of the connection from node i to node j and xij is zero if there is no direct connection. Then the weight
update factor xki for online learning is:

@ þ Ep @ þ Ep @ xi
Dxki ¼ g ¼ g ¼ gei xk ð39Þ
@ xki @ xi @ xki
where g is the learning rate, which affects the convergence speed and stability of the weights during the learning process
[26,27].

2.5. Additional remarks on hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems

Table 1 shows the operation of the single-pass learning mechanism in the backpropagation method, as described in [51].
The proposed hybrid algorithm uses the recursive square-root filter during the forward pass for consequent parameter tun-
ing and backpropagation during the backward pass for antecedent parameter tuning, as shown in Table 2. This approach is

Table 1
One pass in the BP learning procedure for IT2 TSK FLS systems.

Forward pass Backward pass


Antecedent parameters Fixed BP
Consequent parameters Fixed BP
156 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

Table 2
Two passes of an RLS-BP hybrid learning procedure for IT2 FLS systems.

Forward pass Backward pass


Antecedent parameters Fixed BP
Consequent parameters REFIL Fixed

Fig. 4. Flowchart of the TSK hybrid training mechanism.

similar to Sugeno ANFIS type-1 [26,27], which uses a hybrid RLS-BP mechanism as a learning rule in type-1 fuzzy logic
systems.
The starting point for designing an interval singleton FLS is a type-1 fuzzy basis function (FBF) expansion. It appears that it
might be possible to use a least-squares method to tune the parameters in yTl (the transpose of the M  1 matrix yll of the left
points of the centroids of the consequents) and yTr (the transpose of the M  1 matrix ylr of the right points of the centroids of
the consequents). To obtain the two FBFs, pl(x) (the FBF associated with the calculation of yll Þ and pr(x) (the FBF associated
with the calculation of ylr Þ, each yll and each ylr (the M left points and right points of the centroids of the consequents in the
interval) must be known first or fixed as initial conditions [56].
A hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 output is an interval set YTSK,2 = [yl, yr], where yl and yr are calculated independently as shown in
Eqs. (11) and (12). y(x) can also be expressed as:
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 157

" #
1 1  1 X M XM
yðxÞ ¼ ½yl þ yr  ¼ yTl pl ðxÞ þ yTr pr ðxÞ ¼ yil pil þ yir pir ð40Þ
2 2 2 i¼1 i¼1

where the pil ðxÞ are the FBFs associated with the calculation of yl, i.e.,
PL i i PM i i
i¼1 f yl þ i¼Lþ1 f yl
pil ðxÞ ¼ PL i PM ð41Þ
i
i¼1 f þ i¼Lþ1 f

and the pir ðxÞ are the FBFs associated with the calculation of yr, i.e.,
PR i i
PM i yi
i¼1 f yr þ i¼Rþ1 f r
pir ðxÞ ¼ PR i PM ð42Þ
i
i¼1 f þ i¼Rþ1 f

L is the index of the rule-ordered FBF expansions at which yl is a minimum, and R is the index at which yr is a maximum. L
and R are calculated using the algorithm presented in [51].
The membership functions of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 fuzzy logic system are Gaussian functions and are based on the
initial conditions of the antecedent parameters, the consequent parameters, and the measurement parameters. The anteced-
ent and measurement parameters are tuned using the backpropagation training method, while the consequent parameters
are tuned using the recursive square-root filter training method.
To specify the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 completely using the training data, the design criterion is as follows: given N input–
output data training pairs, the hybrid algorithm for E training epochs should minimize the following error function:

1
eðtÞ ¼ ½fs2 ðxðtÞ Þ  yðtÞ 2 ð43Þ
2
where fs2(x(t)) is the IT2 system prediction, y(t) is the real output value, and x(t) is the input vector at time t of the system
under identification. Fig. 4 shows a flowchart of the proposed hybrid training mechanism that minimizes the error function,
Eq. (43), using the initial offline adjustment training process of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 model.

3. Process of constructing the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system

3.1. Hot strip mill temperature forecaster

Because of the complexities and uncertainties involved in rolling operations, the development of mathematical theories
for the hot strip mill has been largely restricted to two-dimensional models of heat losses in flat rolling operations. Fig. 5
shows a simplified diagram of a hot strip mill.
The most critical stage in the hot strip mill process is the finishing mill (FM). So far, several mathematical-model-based
systems have been proposed for setting up a finishing mill. A model-based setup system calculates the finishing-mill work-
ing references needed to obtain the desired gauge, width, and temperature at the finishing-mill exit stand [20]. It is very
important for the model to know the finishing-mill entry temperature accurately. An error in this temperature will propa-
gate throughout the entire finishing mill.
In this application, the inputs of the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems are the surface temperature of the transfer bar and the time
required for the transfer-bar head to reach the scale-breaker (SB) entry zone. Currently, the surface temperature is measured
using a pyrometer located at the roughing-mill (RM) exit. This measurement is affected by noise produced by transfer-bar
scale growth, environmental water and steam, and pyrometer location, calibration, resolution, and repeatability. The trans-
fer-bar head-end traveling time is calculated by mathematical modeling using the estimated finishing-mill thread speed.
This estimate has associated with it an inherent modeling uncertainty.
The universal approximation theorem [51] does not indicate how many inputs, what inputs, how many rules, and how
many fuzzy sets must be used for each input variable to construct an optimal and stable IT2 TSK FLS. The universal

Fig. 5. Schematic view of a typical hot strip mill.


158 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

approximation theorem implies that by using enough inputs, enough fuzzy sets, and enough rules, the IT2 TSK FLS controller
can uniformly approximate any real continuous non-linear function to an arbitrary degree of accuracy. There are an enor-
mous number of possibilities for an IT2 TSK FLS. The design degrees of freedom that control the accuracy of an IT2 TSK
FLS are the number of inputs, the number  of rules, and the number of fuzzy sets for each input   variable.
 Consider the ith
input variable xi, where xi 2 X i ¼ X i ; X þ
i . It is intuitively obvious that dividing the interval X i ; X þ
i into 100 overlapping
regions will lead to greater resolution, and consequently greater accuracy, than dividing the interval into 10 overlapping re-
gions. If there are p inputs, each of which is divided into r overlapping regions, then a complete IT2 TSK FLS must contain pr
rules. As the resolution increases, the FLS becomes enormous and complex. All these degrees of freedom introduce uncer-
tainties into the final IT2 TSK FLS models. However, this is the power of the IT2 TSK FLS; it is based on heuristic construction
of the system using expert knowledge.
The architecture of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 model for temperature prediction is defined so that the parameters are
continuously optimized. The antecedents are the predicted roughing-mill exit temperature x1 and the predicted traveling
time x2. These are the same inputs as for the mathematical models used for temperature estimation in most hot strip mill
industrial sites, and they are considered to be the variables that most influence the temperature of the transfer bar at the
scale breaker. For the case of the input variable x1, its antecedent-input space (the universe of discourse) was divided into
three fuzzy sets, and for the case of x2, its space was also divided into three fuzzy sets, leading to nine fuzzy rules (3  3).
Gaussian primary membership functions with uncertain means were chosen for both antecedents and consequents. Each
rule of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 temperature model was characterized by six antecedent membership-function parameters
(three for each input variable); six consequent parameters (two for each input variable plus two for the crisp number); and
four input-data parameters (two for the standard deviation interval of each input value), giving a total of sixteen parameters
per rule.

3.2. Input–output data pairs

From an industrial hot strip mill, noisy input–output pairs for three different coil types were collected and used as train-
ing and testing data, as shown in Table 3. The inputs were the noisy measured transfer-bar surface temperature at the rough-
ing-mill exit side, a universe of discourse which is bounded (an interval set) from 700 °C to 1300 °C, and the estimated
transfer-bar traveling time from the roughing-mill exit to the entry point of the scale breaker, a universe of discourse which
is bounded from 1 s to 100 s. The output is the noisy transfer-bar entry surface temperature measured at the entry point of
the scale breaker, a universe of discourse which is also bounded from 600 °C to 1120 °C. The means and standard deviations
of the x1 and x2 input vectors of the training data are shown in Table 4. Both inputs are modeled as interval type-2 non-sin-
gleton fuzzy numbers, as shown in Fig. 3.

3.3. Fuzzy rule base

The hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 fuzzy rule base consists of a set of IF-THEN rules that represents the system model. The system
has two inputs x1 2 X1, x2 2 X2 and one output y 2 Y. The rule base has M = 9 rules of the form:

Ri : IF x1 is e
F i1 and x2 is Fe i2 ; THEN Y i ¼ C i0 þ C i1 x1 þ C i2 x2 ð44Þ
i
where Y is the output of the ith rule, which is a fuzzy type-1 set, and the parameters C ij ; i ¼ 1; 2; 3; . . . ; 9 and j = 0, 1, 2, are
consequent type-1 fuzzy sets.

3.4. Input membership functions

The primary membership functions for each input to the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system are Gaussians with uncertain
standard deviations of the form:
" 2 #
1 xk  x0k
lXk ðxk Þ ¼ exp  ð45Þ
2 rkn

where rkn 2 [rk1, rk2], k = 1, 2 (the number of type-2 non-singleton inputs), n = 1, 2 (the lower and upper bounds of the
uncertainty of the standard deviation), and lX k ðxk Þ is centered at the measured input xk ¼ x0k (Fig. 3). The uncertainty of
the standard deviation [r11,r12] of the roughing-mill exit surface temperature measurement was initially set to

Table 3
The three types of coil studied.

Type Target gauge (mm) Target width (mm) Steel grade (SAE/AISI)
A 1.95 1104.0 1006
B 5.33 1066.0 1009
C 3.04 939.0 1045
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 159

Table 4
Mean and standard deviation of x1 and x2 inputs.

Type mx1 (°C) rx1 (°C) mx2 (s) rx2 (s)


A 1050.0 13.0 39.5 2.41
B 1037.2 22.9 39.6 2.52
C 1022.0 16.7 37.3 3.26

Table 5
Intervals of uncertainty selected for the input x1.

m11 (°C) m12 (°C) r1 (°C)


1 950 952 60
2 1016 1018 60
3 1080 1082 60

Fig. 6. Membership functions for the antecedent fuzzy sets of x1 input.

[11.0, 14.0] °C, and that of the standard deviation [r21, r22] of the head-end traveling-time measurement was initially set to
[1.41, 3.41] s.

3.5. Antecedent membership functions

The primary membership functions for each antecedent are fuzzy sets described by Gaussians with uncertain means:
2
" #2 3
i 4 1 xk  mik 5 e i
l k ðxk Þ ¼ exp  ¼ Fk ð46Þ
2 rik
 
where mik 2 mik1 ; mik2 is the uncertain mean, k = 1, 2 (the number of antecedents), i = 1, 2, . . ., 9 (the number of M-rules), and
rik the standard deviation. The fuzzy sets of the antecedent membership functions can be determined according to linguistic
rules from human experts or be chosen arbitrarily in the input space [14,45,51,56].
Table 5 shows x1 input calculated uncertainty interval values, where [m11,m12] is the uncertain mean and r1 is the stan-
dard deviation. Fig. 6 shows that the initial membership functions of the antecedent fuzzy sets for the x1 inputs are uniformly
distributed over the entire input space.
Table 6 shows x2 input uncertainty interval values, where [m21 ,m22] is the uncertain mean and r2 is the standard devi-
ation. Fig. 7 shows that the initial membership functions of the antecedent fuzzy sets for the x2 inputs are uniformly distrib-
uted over the entire input space.
160 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

Table 6
Intervals of uncertainty selected for the input x2.

m12 (s) m22 (s) r2 (s)


1 32 34 10
2 42 44 10
3 56 58 10

Fig. 7. Membership functions for the antecedent fuzzy sets of x2 input.

The values of the three fuzzy sets of each of the two antecedents were calculated using the following empirical equations
to distribute the fuzzy sets uniformly over the entire input space:

FuzzySet#1 ½mx  4rx  rn ; mx  4rx þ rn  ð47Þ


FuzzySet#2 ½mx  rn ; mx þ rn  ð48Þ
FuzzySet#3 ½mx þ 4rx  rn ; mx þ 4rx þ rn  ð49Þ

where mx is the median value, rx is the standard deviation of the training data set, and rn is the additive noise, calculated as
rn ¼ r10x .

3.6. Consequent membership functions


 
Each consequent is an interval type-1 fuzzy set with Y i ¼ yil ; yir , where
X
p X
p
yil ¼ cij xj þ ci0  jxj jsij  si0 ð50Þ
j¼1 j¼1

and
X
p X
p
yir ¼ cij xj þ ci0 þ jxj jsij þ si0 ð51Þ
j¼1 j¼1

cij denotes the center (mean) of C ij ; sij denotes the spread of C ij ; i ¼ 1; 2; 3; . . . ; 9; j ¼ 0; 1; 2; and yil and yir are the consequent
parameters.
When only the input–output data training pairs (x(1):y(1)), . . ., (x(N):y(N)) are available and there is no information about the
consequents, the initial values of the centroid parameters cij and sij can be chosen arbitrarily in the output space [14,45,51,56].
In this study, the initial values of cij were set to 0.001 and the initial values of sij to 0.0001, for i = 1, 2, 3, . . ., 9 and j = 0, 1, 2.
The initial values of the rule base for the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system are shown in Table 7.
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 161

Table 7
Initial values of the antecedent and consequent parameters of the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system.

l m11 (°C) m12 (°C) r1 (°C) m21 (s) m22 (s) r2 (s) c0 c1 c2 s0 s1 s2
1 950.0 952.0 60.0 32.0 34.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
2 950.0 952.0 60.0 42.0 44.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
3 950.0 952.0 60.0 56.0 58.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
4 1016.0 1018.0 60.0 32.0 34.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
5 1016.0 1018.0 60.0 42.0 44.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
6 1016.0 1018.0 60.0 56.0 58.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
7 1080.0 1082.0 60.0 32.0 34.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
8 1080.0 1082.0 60.0 42.0 44.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
9 1080.0 1082.0 60.0 56.0 58.0 10.0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

4. Initial adjustment process

After the construction of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 temperature forecaster, the next step was the offline supervised
adjustment of the system, in which the parameters of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 temperature model were adjusted using
ðtÞ
a data set of N input–output training data pairs to minimize the following training error function ets after E training epochs:

ðtÞ 1 h  ðtÞ  ðtÞ


i2
ets ¼ ftss2 xts  yts ð52Þ
2
ðtÞ
where ftss2(x(t)) is the output at training phase (the IT2 TSK NSFLS2-calculated scale-breaker temperature), xts is the input
training vector (the measured roughing-mill exit temperature x1 and the measured transfer-bar translation time x2), and
ðtÞ
yts is the output training value (the measured scale-breaker entry temperature). It is recommended that N > the total num-
ber of FLS parameters to be tuned, and E depends on the convergence tolerance selected for a particular application. The
mechanism for antecedent parameter adjustment uses the backpropagation method, while consequent parameters are ad-
justed uses the recursive square-root filter method, as shown in steps 1–12 in Fig. 4.

5. Setup procedure

Hot strip mill: the next step after construction and initial adjustment of the system is the online setup process that cal-
culates for each bar the scale-breaker entry temperature, ftss2(x(m)) as a function of the measured roughing-mill exit temper-
ature x1 and the predicted transfer-bar translation time x2 from the roughing-mill exit to the scale-breaker entry. At the end
of the setup procedure, the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 fuzzy model checks the physical finishing-mill limits on force, power,
speed, draft, gap, and current. If a limiting condition is encountered, the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 scale-breaker temperature
predictor generates an alarm and does not execute the subsequent adaptation process.

6. Feedback process

Hot strip mill: After the online setup process, the online feedback-adaptation process take place, in which the hybrid IT2
TSK NSFLS2 scale-breaker entry temperature predictor adapts its parameters from one bar to another, following the learning
ðmÞ
workflow shown in steps 4–10 in Fig. 4, and calculates the setup error function ets using:
ðmÞ ðmÞ
ets ¼ ftss2 ðxm Þ  yts ð53Þ
(m) ðmÞ
where ftss2(x ) is the strip temperature at the scale-breaker entry point as calculated by the previous setup process; is xts
the vector of input-variable values (the validated measured transfer-bar surface temperature at the roughing-mill exit x1 and
ðmÞ
the predicted transfer-bar translation time, x2); yts is the validated measured transfer-bar surface temperature at the scale-
breaker entry point (feedback). The rolling time is approximately four minutes, so every four minutes, the hybrid IT2 TSK
NSFLS2 temperature model adapts its antecedent parameters using Eq. (39) and adapts its consequent parameters using
Eqs. (23)–(27) and (35), using the recursive square-root filter as the adaptation method.
The bar-to-bar parameter adaptation procedure enables the model to respond to changing mill conditions. The hybrid IT2
TSK NSFLS2 temperature model inhibits feedback if the strip runs outside of low or high thread speed, force, or power limits,
or if the measured feedback data are invalid or unbounded.

7. Convergence and stability analysis

7.1. Fuzzy non-linear dynamic system identification: a model-free approach

The general fuzzy-logic identification approach works for trajectory tracking for a conventional dynamic system, even a
complex one that does not have a precise mathematical model [74].
162 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

The plant is a conventional system without a mathematical description, and all the input signals are interval type-2 non-
singleton values. The objective is to design a fuzzy model identifier to achieve the goal that the output of the fuzzy model
converges to the output of the real system as t ? 1, without any knowledge of the plant except the assumptions that its
inputs and outputs are measured by sensors and its values are bounded by the limits of the process operation.
The mathematical formulation of the plant is unknown (including state variables and any other information). The fuzzy-
logic approach does not need a mathematical description of the plant to generate the design of a working process model
(Fig. 8): it uses only the plant inputs and outputs, which are available from pyrometers and hot-metal detectors.
The fuzzification module transforms the bounded values of the specific measured process signal into a fuzzy set value
consisting of an interval type-2 non-singleton bounded value, then calculates the grades of belonging of the input signal rel-
ative to the membership functions. The purpose of this fuzzification unit is to make the input physical signal compatible with
the fuzzy-logic rules located in the core of the model. The interval type-2 non-singleton function of the input signals and the
membership functions of the fuzzy database rules are both chosen according to knowledge of the nature and properties of
the given problem.

7.2. Stability analysis

According to Aliev and Pedrycz [3], stability is one of the fundamental concepts of complex dynamic systems, including
physical, economic, socioeconomic, and technical systems. They established a set of criteria concerning the generalized sta-
bility of a wide class of continuous dynamic control systems, offering a classification of stability by admitting different de-
grees of stability and proposing that under some conditions, fuzzy stability coincides with classical notions of stability:
Lyapunov stability theory, the Lipschitz stability theory, and the Popov criterion. The generalized theory of fuzzy stability
(GTS) [3] proposes that the stability of a fuzzy system is fuzzy indeed: the system can be unstable, weakly stable, more
or less stable, strongly stable, or completely stable. Previous theories are applicable to closed-loop fuzzy control systems
which consist of a non-linear dynamic system under the control of a fuzzy controller.
The proposed hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 fuzzy system is a fuzzy identifier for non-linear dynamic systems and performs non-
linear mappings in which the convergence to zero of the tracking error is the important issue in performance analysis. Sta-
bility analysis is not within the scope of this paper.

7.3. Convergence analysis

Wang [79] has established that, by choosingrik , the standard


deviation in Eq. (46), sufficiently small, i.e., r⁄, the fuzzy
nþ1 nþ1
system can match all the N input–output pairs x0 ; y0 for k = 0, 1, . . ., N  1, to an arbitrary accuracy.

Lemma 1. For arbitrary e > 0, the fuzzy system ftss2(x(t)) with the preceding initial parameters mik ; k ¼ 1; 2 (the number of

 


ðtÞ ðtÞ

antecedents), i = 1, 2, . . ., 9 (the number of M-rules), and rik ¼ r has the property that
ftss2 xts  yts
< e, where ftss2(x(t)) is the
ðtÞ
output of the training phase (the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 calculated scale-breaker temperature), xts is the input training vector
ðtÞ
(measured roughing-mill exit temperature x1, measured transfer-bar translation time x2), yts
is the output training value
(measured scale-breaker entry temperature), and N > the total number of FLS parameters to be tuned.

Fig. 8. Basic scheme of the identification model for the plant using the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system.
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 163

Because the proposed IT2 TSK NSFLS2 is a universal fuzzy identifier, the hybrid training method developed here guarantees that
the total matching error from Eq. (52) converges to a value e at every step of training. This can be proved using the general results of
the steepest-descent algorithm as defined by Wang [80] and then applied to the proposed hybrid algorithm.

Let [f(t)] and ½fðtÞ be a sequence of real-valued vectors generated respectively by one of the steepest-descent algorithms:
f ðt þ 1Þ ¼ f ðtÞ  grgðf ðtÞÞ ð54Þ
and
f ðt þ 1Þ ¼ f ðtÞ  grgðf ðtÞÞ ð55Þ
where g is the learning rate and g: Rn ? R is a cost function, g 2 C2. Assume that all f and f 2 D  R for some compact D.
n

Then, to tune the parameters mk 2 [mk1, mk2] (the uncertain means) and rk (the standard deviation, (k = 1, 2, the number
of antecedents)), to minimize the squared errors given by Eq. (43), and to test for convergence, it is necessary only to apply
Lemma 1 [80] to each of the lower (Eq. (5)) and upper (Eq. (6)) membership functions. Both of these are piecewise differen-
tiable, i.e., each branch is differentiable [51] over its segment domain, and using the Taylor series expansion, it is possible to
prove points (i), (ii), and (iii):

(i)
gðf ðt þ 1ÞÞ < gðf ðtÞÞ if rgðf ðtÞÞ – 0 ð56Þ

and
gðf ðt þ 1ÞÞ < gðf ðtÞÞ if rgðf ðtÞÞ – 0 ð57Þ
(ii)
f ðtÞ ! f  2 D as t ! 1 ð58Þ

and
f ðtÞ ! f  2 D as t ! 1 ð59Þ
if g(⁄) is bounded from below; and
(iii)
f  is a local minimum of gðf Þ ð60Þ

and
f  is a local minimum of gðf Þ ð61Þ

As for the tuning of the centroid parameters cj and sj, j = 0, 1, 2, Eq. (26) can be applied to Eq. (43) before using the same
Lemma 1.
Fuzzy systems and neural networks are known as universal approximators because they can approximate an arbitrary var-
iable with a certain bounded error. On the other hand, optimization routines such as recursive least-squares, backpropaga-
tion, recursive square-root filter, and others have been proved stable for certain values of their learning parameters. The
reader is referred to [27,80] for a complete mathematical analysis and convergence proof of the steepest-descent algorithm.
In addition, a mathematical analysis and convergence proof of the recursive Kalman filter can be found in [2,27].

8. Results

8.1. Hot strip mill application

Three different designs: IT2 TSK SFLS, IT2 TSK NSFLS1, and IT2 TSK NSFLS2 were used to predict the scale-breaker entry
temperature. Three different sets of data for the three different coil types were taken from a real mill, as shown in Table 3.
Each of these data sets was split into two sets: one for the initial adjustment process, and the other for the setup validation
and feedback processes. Eighty-seven type A, sixty-eight type B, and twenty-eight type C input–output data pairs were used
for the initial adjustment process. Experiments were run independently for each product type.
The use of the C++ language for IT2 TSK fuzzy algorithm implementation and for the implementation of the fast-access file
system (where each fuzzy rule is stored as one record) enables this application to run in a server in real time. It runs very fast,
requiring a maximum of 4.43 s for a 50-epoch calculation. As shown in Table 8, the average relative computational-complex-
ity index for the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) system attained the maximum relative value of 1.0 and a maximum exe-
cution time of 4.43 s, due to the extra calculations involved in the processing of input uncertainties. In general, depending on
the training method, the systems using the hybrid (REFIL-BP) method had bigger computational-complex index and bigger
execution time than the systems using the hybrid (RLS-BP) and non-hybrid (BP-BP) learning methods. Depending on the
164 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

Table 8
Relative computational-complexity index and execution time of IT2 TSK FLS systems.

IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system Relative computational Computational


complexity index [0–1.0] execution time (s)
IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) 0.4 3.59
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (BP-BP) 0.6 4.09
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP) 0.8 4.11
IT2 TSK SFLS (RLS-BP) 0.5 3.75
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (RLS-BP) 0.8 4.17
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (RLS-BP) 0.9 4.14
IT2 TSK SFLS (REFIL-BP) 0.7 3.82
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (REFIL-BP) 0.9 4.24
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) 1.0 4.43

Fig. 9. RMSE of: (*) IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) (x) IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (BP-BP) () IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP).

input type, IT2 TSK SFLS systems had lower relative computational-complexity index and lower execution time than the IT2
TSK NSFLS1 and IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems.
The performance evaluation of each of the IT2 TSK FLS systems is based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) criterion
[51]:
vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u n
u1 X
RMSE ¼ t ½YðkÞ  f s2 ðxðkÞ Þ2 ð62Þ
n k¼1

where Y(k) is the output value from the input–output data vector, i.e., the measured scale-breaker entry temperature value
used for the initial adjustment, which is different from the test data, but from the same coil type, and fs2(x(k)) is the temper-
ature predicted by the IT2 TSK FLS system.
Figs. 9–11 show the RMSE behavior of the three IT2 TSK FLS systems used for type C coils during fifty epoch computations.
The behavior of type A and type B coils is similar and is not shown here for the sake of brevity. Fig. 9 shows the RMSE behav-
ior of the three IT2 TSK FLS systems using the BP-BP method during fifty epochs of the initial adjustment process for type C
products. Fig. 10 shows the RMSE behavior of the three IT2 TSK FLS systems initially trained using the hybrid RLS-BP mech-
anism. Fig. 11 shows the RMSE behavior of the three IT2 TSK FLS systems in the initial adjustment process using the proposed
hybrid REFIL-BP mechanism.
A period of fifty epochs was chosen for display purposes. When the number of epochs in the initial adjustment process
goes to infinity (epoch ? 1), i.e., more than 720 training epochs, or two production days, experiments show that the RMSE
converges to a specific e value, RMSE < e. This limiting value depends on the training method and type of inputs selected, as
shown in Table 9. The use of only validated and bounded data guarantees that the convergence of the IT2 TSK FLS systems
depends only on their feedback gain values, as has been proved experimentally in this research and as can be observed in
Figs. 9–11. The hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 converged under the tested conditions.
The IT2 TSK FLS’s antecedent membership functions and consequent centroids absorbed the uncertainty introduced by
the noisy data (noisy measurements). The noisy data are not shown here because each data point consists of the average
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 165

Fig. 10. RMSE of: (*) IT2 TSK SFLS (RLS-BP) (x) IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (RLS-BP) () IT2 TSK SFLS2 (RLS-BP).

Fig. 11. RMSE of: (*) IT2 TSK SFLS (REFIL-BP) (x) IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (REFIL-BP) () IT2 TSK SFLS2 (REFIL-BP).

temperature at the head segment of the transfer bar and the measured time for each bar to travel from the roughing mill to
the scale-breaker entry. These values may vary from one transfer bar to the next for various reasons besides measurement
noise.
Fig. 9 shows the RMSEs of three non-hybrid IT2 TSK FLS with the BP-BP learning method: IT2 TSK SFLS, IT2 TSK NSFLS1,
and IT2 TSK NSFLS2 for type C products. This figure shows that after epochs 1 and 2, the IT2 TSK NSFLS1 obtained the best
performance. After epoch 3, the performance of the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 improved substantially and did not exhibit oscillations or
unstable behavior. It can be seen that the RMSE error after epoch 4 improved epoch by epoch and trended clearly towards an
RMSE value of 2.26 °C. In addition, the IT2 TSK NSFLS1 converged to an RMSE value of e = 2.13 °C, while IT2 TSK SFLS trended
to an MSE value of e = 2.75 °C.
Fig. 10 shows the RMSEs of three IT2 TSK FLS that use the hybrid RLS-BP method. Note that from epoch 1 onwards, the IT2
TSK NSFLS1 had better performance than the IT2 TSK SFLS. At epoch 1, the RMSE of the IT2 TSK SFLS indicates poor perfor-
mance. However, this algorithm was stable for the rest of the training epochs and converged to an RMSE value of e = 2.69 °C.
This figure shows that from epoch 1 to 4, the IT2 TSK NSFLS1 had better performance than both the singleton IT2 TSK SFLS
and the IT2 TSK NSFLS2. At epoch 1, the RMSE of the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 indicates poor performance. However, by epoch 3, it
achieved a good RMSE value and converged to a minimum value of e = 1.98 °C. As can be seen, this algorithm was stable
for the rest of the epochs. The IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system had the best performance after only two epochs of training.
166 G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169

Table 9
RMSE reached when training epochs tend to infinity.

IT2 TSK fuzzy logic system Converged RMSE (°C)


IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) 2.75
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (BP-BP) 2.13
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP) 2.26
IT2 TSK SFLS (RLS-BP) 2.69
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (RLS-BP) 1.87
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (RLS-BP) 1.98
IT2 TSK SFLS (REFIL-BP) 2.04
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (REFIL-BP) 1.61
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) 1.57

Table 10
Efficiency relation between average RMSE values of HSM temperature prediction during 50 epochs.

IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) RMSE/IT2 TSK FLS RMSE (%)


IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) 45.22
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (BP-BP) 148.43
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP) 38.97
IT2 TSK SFLS (RLS-BP) 53.51
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (RLS-BP) 209.50
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (RLS-BP) 53.40
IT2 TSK SFLS (REFIL-BP) 38.97
IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (REFIL-BP) 250.00
IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) 100.00

Table 11
Final values of the antecedent and consequent parameters of the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system.

l m11 (°C) m12 (°C) r1 (°C) m21 (s) m22 (s) r2 (s) c0 c1 c2 s0 s1 s2
1 950.2 952.0 60.0 32.1 34.0 10.3 0.009 1.912 1.977 0.0211 22.6630 0.7955
2 948.9 952.0 69.8 42.0 44.1 9.9 0.004 0.625 1.195 0.0112 11.7712 0.4150
3 951.0 952.0 60.0 56.0 58.0 10.2 0.001 0.112 0.733 0.0017 1.7356 0.0613
4 1017.2 1018.0 59.6 32.4 34.0 10.0 0.032 1.054 8.072 0.0096 9.5225 0.3539
5 1016.1 1018.0 60.9 42.0 43.9 10.0 0.010 0.710 5.620 0.0671 71.7304 2.5224
6 1016.0 1018.0 59.2 56.1 57.9 10.5 0.003 0.796 5.749 0.0921 96.5036 3.4051
7 1081.0 1082.0 60.2 32.4 34.5 10.4 0.074 1.319 13.017 0.0780 82.8572 2.9206
8 1078.5 1082.0 60.1 42.0 43.8 10.0 0.527 0.693 9.292 0.0315 32.7161 1.1772
9 1076.3 1082.0 60.0 55.3 58.0 11.4 0.032 0.643 8.020 0.1267 136.7618 4.7833

Fig. 11 shows the RMSEs of three IT2 TSK FLS systems trained using the proposed hybrid REFIL-BP algorithm for type C
products. For this experiment, the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS1 had better performance than the hybrid IT2 TSK SFLS for the whole
initial adjustment period. It reached a good RMSE value of e = 2.51 °C after only one epoch and trended quickly to its con-
verged RMSE value of e = 1.61 °C. It was stable over the entire adjustment process. The proposed hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2
showed stable behavior with high performance starting at epoch 2 and converged quickly to a low RMSE value of 1.57 °C.
Compared to the non-hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP) and to the hybrid IT2 NSFLS2 (RLS-BP) systems, the proposed IT2
TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) hybrid approach was clearly better for temperature prediction. The hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-
BP) system achieved high performance after only two epochs of training. It is important to emphasize that hybrid IT2 TSK
FLS systems are very sensitive to learning-parameter gains.
As shown in Table 10, the average RMSE of the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) prediction algorithm during the initial
training process was 45.22% of the average RMSE of the non-hybrid IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) system, indicating that the former
had better performance than the latter in 54.78% of the cases. In this experiment, the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (REFIL-BP) had
better performance than the observed in the non-hybrid systems IT2 TSK SFLS (BP-BP) and IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (BP-BP), and the
hybrid systems IT2 TSK SFLS (RLS-BP), IT2 TSK NSFLS2 (RLS-BP), and IT2 TSK SFLS1 (REFIL-BP); however, it had the maximum
relative computational-complexity index and the maximum execution time. On the other hand, the hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2
(RLS-BP) system had lower average performance than the observed in the non-hybrid system IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (BP-BP) and the
hybrid systems IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (RLS-BP) and IT2 TSK NSFLS1 (REFIL-BP).
Using forty input–output data pairs for online setup feedback, the setup errors were as high as 5 °C.
Table 11 shows the final values of the adapted parameters after fifty epochs of training for the initial adjustment process
of the proposed hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 system.
G.M. Méndez, M. de los Angeles Hernández / Information Sciences 220 (2013) 149–169 167

9. Concluding remarks

This paper presents a hybrid learning mechanism for A2-C1 IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems. The hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 anteced-
ent membership functions and consequent centroids absorbed the uncertainty introduced by the real data (noisy tempera-
ture, and traveling-time measurements) used to tune the IT2 TSK FLS systems. The BP-BP, RLS-BP, and REFIL-BP hybrid
training mechanisms were tested using real industrial and business applications, which demonstrated the feasibility of
the hybrid parameter adaptation procedure. In the industrial application, the results showed that the hybrid algorithm
can be used to tune the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems and to predict robustly the scale-breaker entry temperature of steel bars
in real time while they are being rolled. Comparisons show that the IT2 TSK NSFLS2 systems using the hybrid REFIL-BP meth-
od outperformed the BP-BP and the RLS-BP learning methods, in most cases substantially.
The training data set of type C material was composed of only twenty-eight data pairs, containing a minimum of infor-
mation about the complete rolling spectrum for this material. The hybrid IT2 TSK NSFLS2 model was able to generalize to
certain regions of the multidimensional space where no training data were given, and in spite of these deficiencies, to satisfy
the hot strip mill performance requirements for transfer-bar surface temperature prediction.
It will be important to consider in future research certain additional factors that may influence temperature behavior, but
which may be difficult to incorporate into the mathematical model, such as steel chemical composition, transfer-bar thick-
ness, and rolling speed, among others. The addition of these factors would increase, of course, the number of fuzzy sets and
the number of operations required, and therefore the demand for resources. As mentioned, the experiments in this research
were carried out for three different types of products, but in practice, the same model would be run for all product types.
Future work will focus on the establishment of mathematical foundations for stability and convergence of hybrid IT2 TSK,
hybrid IT2 Mamdami singleton, type-1 non-singleton, and type-2 non-singleton type-2 fuzzy systems, with online tuning in
which the fuzzy parameters are continuously adapted to follow changing plant conditions.

Acknowledgment

The authors acknowledge the support provided by the hot strip mill process engineering department from APM.

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