The Role of Science in Natural Disaster Preparedness and Response: Risk Communication

SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction …
NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA SAFRR Project: Science Application for Risk Reduction …
The Role of Science in Natural Disaster

Preparedness and Response:
Risk Communication
Dr. Lucy Jones
Science Advisor for Risk Reduction Science Advisor for Seismic Safety
Natural Hazards Mission Area Mayor of Los Angeles
US Geological Survey
Natural Hazards: Earthquake • Volcanic Eruption • Landslide • Flood • Geomagnetic Storm • Wildfire • Tsunami • Coastal Erosion
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The SAFRR Project
SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction
The mission of SAFRR is to innovate the application of hazard science

for the safety, security, and economic well-being of the nation.
SAFRR supports Programs and Science Centers in improving user

application & interpretation of our USGS Science across the Nation.
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The SAFRR Team
Lucy Jones Dale Cox Donyelle Davis Sue Perry Erin Burkett
Senior Science Advisor forProject Manager Public Affairs Specialist Disaster Scientist Staff Scientist
Risk Reduction
Sandra Dedeaux Kristin Ludwig Stephanie Ross Robert Leeper Deborah Weiser
Administrative Staff Scientist Tsunami Scenario Student Trainee, Student Trainee, Geology
Coordinator Project Technical Geology
Lead
The SAFRR Project
Integrates:
USGS earth science research
Social science
Needs of external partners
…to Create Useful:

 Products
 Tools
 Information
…That Improve:
 Communication
 Understanding
 Decision-making
SAFRR Activities
• Scenarios
• Risk perception,
communication,
messaging (inc.
Earthquake Early
Warning & OEF)
• Partnerships
• Field work:
paleotsunami,
wildfire, debris
flow
• Visibility of USGS
SAFRR Scenarios: ShakeOut
ShakeOut: City of LA, Mayor Garcetti, US Northcom,

US Navy Southwest
• Publication, “Resilience by Design”,

Dec 2014 (Jones/City of LA)
• National Level Exercise Presentations,

(Hudnut/Perry/Cox) May 2015
– Exercise Injects (Perry)
The ARkStorm Scenario
ARkStorm = Atmospheric River (AR) 1000 (k) Storm
• Scientifically realistic
meteorological event: winter
storm impacting the U.S. West
Coast.
• Precipitation exceeding levels

experienced on average once
every 500-1000 years
• Examines secondary hazards

(landslides, flooding), physical
damages to built environment, &
economic consequences.
Animation of atmospheric river event, February 2014.

(CREDIT: NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/
HayWired Scenario (in progress…)
• The next earthquake scenario: M7.05
on Hayward Fault
• Examining infrastructural impacts &
interdependencies in SF Bay area:
o Water
o Electric
o Gas
o Roads
o Telecomm.
o Special Focus:
- Internet
- Internet Economy
- Outmigration
• Consider aftershocks & liquefaction

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
A Tsunami generated by a M9.1 earthquake

offshore of the Alaska Peninsula
• Rupture similar to Tohoku,

between 1946 & 1964 sources
Wave Heights
• Simulations of tsunami waves impacting
U.S. West Coast
• Biggest contribution to LA’s tsunami hazard
• Examining impacts on coastal residents,

visitors, infrastructure, economy, and
natural environment
Inundation
Currents
Risk Communication & Social Science
• Bring “Design Storm” approach internal to improve
process of collaboration & product development
• Working more closely with USGS Pubs
• Collaboration with social scientists to better understand
audiences and improve products and bring broader
lessons to apply within USGS
Design Storm for designing of an effective Earthquake Early Warning app, brought together geoscientists,
emergency managers, social scientists, design students & professors; July 2013
SAFRR CORE & Hazard Maps
• Cadre of Relevant Experts

(CORE): bring together
USGS scientists & diverse
outside experts to tackle
problems
• Current project: assess

National Hazard Maps
and determine new
audiences & products to
broaden their
accessibility
SAFRR CORE Hazard Maps Workshop, June 2014
…Next workshops: two in summer/fall 2015; more in 2016

Guidelines for Successful Science Products
We've learned how risk communication experts - social and behavioral scientists,
social impact designers and marketers – develop products. We'll follow their
guidelines to improve the understanding and use of USGS science, starting with the
National Seismic Hazard Maps.
1. Define your goals.

2. Know your audience. need a title to tell the user what this map
shows
3. Start where they are. add photos or
4. Use design thinking. description to legend to
relate the concepts to
5. Evaluate early & often. the user's experience
6. Repeat.
Clarify hierarchy:
add heavy black border to
map; reduce scale of legend
and Logo; move logo to
bottom right if possible
for left-to-right readers, move
legend to bottom right of map
Visibility of the USGS
Worked with the

Office of
Communications to
provide media
training to the
Earthquake Science
Center (April 2015)
Lucy Jones and Justin Pressfield present “Media Training 101” at the April 14th Media Training Workshop, Caltech
Media Center, Pasadena, CA (Photo: Erin Burkett, USGS)
Using social science in the

ShakeOut Drill
• A public drill for everyone
• Based on Japan’s
September 1 Earthquake
Day
• In Southern California,
we don’t share the
memory because most
do not have family roots
in California
15
ShakeOut partnership with Art

Center College of Design
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ShakeOut Goals
• Participation of at least 5 million people in the ShakeOut Drill
• School, Business, and Community Organization recruitment efforts
will have several million people participate
• Everyone is encouraged to “spread the word” to promote people
participating in the ShakeOut!
• Shift the culture in southern California about earthquakes

• We must all take greater responsibility for readiness
• We all need to talk about earthquakes and
preparedness more often
• Significant increase in earthquake

readiness at all levels
17
ShakeOut Tactics
• Listen to the social
scientists
1. Consistent messaging
2. Visual reinforcement
3. Encouraging milling
4. Focus on concrete
consequences and
recommendations
18
Tactic 1: Consistent messaging

• Sociologists find we listen when multiple trusted
sources say the same thing
• Created the Earthquake Country Alliance
• Over 200 members - all the groups that have
been giving earthquake safety information
• Agreed to share messaging approach
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Tactic 1: Consistent messaging

• Common Goal:
– participate in “Drop, Cover, Hold On”
– Take One More Step
• Multiple Media
– Webpages
– Purchased advertising
– support from partners
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Tactic 2: Visual reinforcement

• People do what they see others doing
• Why fashion works
• How do we show people getting ready for an
earthquake?
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www.dropcoverholdon.org
22
Tactic 2: Visual reinforcement

• Make this a media event
– “The Biggest Drill Ever”
23
Stories around the world
24
Tactic 3: Encourage milling

• People only make decisions after they have
talked about the problem and possible
solutions with people they care about
• How do we get people to talk about
earthquakes?
25
Tactic 3: Encourage milling

• “Mommy, we had an earthquake drill today”
• Get schools, and businesses to drill on the same
day
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Tactic 4: Concrete
consequences, not risk
7 Steps to Earthquake Safety
• Perceived risk does not
affect behavior
• Information on what
actions to take does
affect behavior
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Did we achieve our goals?

• Participation of at least 5 million people in the
ShakeOut Drill
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5.47 Million Participants in 2008
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www.ShakeOut.org
• Use website to track
participation
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www.ShakeOut.org
31

√ • Participation of at least 5 million people in the
ShakeOut Drill
– Got 5.47 million
• Shift the culture in southern California about
earthquakes
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Survey of Individuals
• 97% of survey respondents said they would
participate every year
• 51% practiced other aspects of their plan (in
addition to drop, cover, and hold on)
• 66% used drill planning resources on the
ShakeOut.org website
• 80% tried to get others to participate
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The Response continues…

• "This is the best single effort in emergency preparedness
in my nearly 20 years in the business. The Golden
Guardian / Great ShakeOut project did more to prepare
our cities than all previous efforts combined for many
years past. I have never had so much participation and
interest in disaster preparedness. And it continues!”
- Los Angeles County Emergency Manager
34

ShakeOut Drill
earthquakes
√
– Survey shows 97% will participate again & 84% say
they are now better prepared
• Significant increase in earthquake readiness at all
levels
35
Case Study: Home Depot

• Sponsorship: $100,000
• Additional Contributions
• In-store end-cap displays
• Product demonstrations and trainings
• Radio station events at stores
• Tracked Sales
• Home Depot has provided sales reports for 19 products sold
in stores throughout LA market
• QuakeHold products: 261% increase in sales in Nov. 2008
compared to Nov. 2007
• (OSH, Lowes, ACE, True Value and others: 200%+ sales
increase) 36
ShakeOut Outcome: Home Depot
37

ShakeOut Drill
earthquakes
√
– Survey shows 97% will participate again & 84% say
they are now better prepared
• Significant increase in earthquake readiness at all
√ levels
– 260% increase in Home Depot sales of earthquake
38
fasteners
Applying scenarios to increase

resilience
• A partnership between the USGS and the City
of Los Angeles
• A year long project to create a seismic
resilience plan
• Focused on
– Old buildings
– Water system
– Communications
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OUR URBAN SOCIETY IS AT RISK
URBAN DISASTER RESILIENCE IS

A SOCIETY THAT FUNCTIONS
AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
NECESSARY SYSTEMS
ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS
EXPECTED
CATASTROPHE
RECOVERY
TIME
ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS
NEW ORLEANS VS NASHVILLE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
-$105 NASHVILLE
BILLION
-$80 BILLION
NEW
ORLEANS
LA & SAN FRANCISCO IN 1906
1906
earthquake
OUR URBAN SOCIETY IS AT RISK
Goals:
Protect lives during the earthquake
Improve a city’s ability to respond
Improve a city’s capacity for recovery
URBAN DISASTER RESILIENCE IS HAVING A SOCIETY

THAT FUNCTIONS AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE
What has potential for catastrophic failure?
• Collapse of water system

• Catastrophic fire
• Loss of telecommunications
• Loss of rental housing
• Unusable commercial space
The Mayor’s Plan: Fortify Our Water System

• Imported water crosses
San Andreas
• Protected fault crossings
for the aqueducts
• Less dependence on
imported water
• Seismic resistant
distribution pipes
• Alternative firefighting
capability
The Mayor’s Plan: Enhance Reliable

Telecommunications
• MOU with service providers to manage

emergencies
• More resilient power
• Promote City-wide Wifi access
• Stronger towers
Cell tower in Tokyo after March 2011 M9
The Mayor’s Plan: Strengthen Our Buildings

• Mandatory retrofit of soft-first story buildings
• Mandatory retrofit of concrete buildings
• Voluntary rating system
• “Back to Business” inspection program
• Excessive Damage ordinance
1933 1971 1994
WE ARE ALL IN THIS

TOGETHER
Special thanks to
Tom O’Rourke, Cornell University
Keith Porter, University of Colorado
Connie Bakshi, Art Center College of Design
John Bwarie, Stratiscope

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SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction …

The Role of Science in Natural Disaster

SAFRR: Science Application for Risk Reduction

The mission of SAFRR is to innovate the application of hazard science

SAFRR supports Programs and Science Centers in improving user

…to Create Useful:

ShakeOut: City of LA, Mayor Garcetti, US Northcom,

• Publication, “Resilience by Design”,

• National Level Exercise Presentations,

• Precipitation exceeding levels

• Examines secondary hazards

Animation of atmospheric river event, February 2014.

• Consider aftershocks & liquefaction

A Tsunami generated by a M9.1 earthquake

• Rupture similar to Tohoku,

• Biggest contribution to LA’s tsunami hazard

• Examining impacts on coastal residents,

• Cadre of Relevant Experts

• Current project: assess

SAFRR CORE Hazard Maps Workshop, June 2014

…Next workshops: two in summer/fall 2015; more in 2016

1. Define your goals.

Worked with the

Using social science in the

ShakeOut partnership with Art

• Shift the culture in southern California about earthquakes

• Significant increase in earthquake

Tactic 1: Consistent messaging

Tactic 1: Consistent messaging

Tactic 2: Visual reinforcement

Tactic 2: Visual reinforcement

Stories around the world

Tactic 3: Encourage milling

Tactic 3: Encourage milling

Did we achieve our goals?

5.47 Million Participants in 2008

Did we achieve our goals?

The Response continues…

Did we achieve our goals?

Case Study: Home Depot

ShakeOut Outcome: Home Depot

Did we achieve our goals?

Applying scenarios to increase

OUR URBAN SOCIETY IS AT RISK

URBAN DISASTER RESILIENCE IS

LA & SAN FRANCISCO IN 1906

OUR URBAN SOCIETY IS AT RISK

URBAN DISASTER RESILIENCE IS HAVING A SOCIETY

What has potential for catastrophic failure?

• Collapse of water system

The Mayor’s Plan: Fortify Our Water System

The Mayor’s Plan: Enhance Reliable

• MOU with service providers to manage

Cell tower in Tokyo after March 2011 M9

The Mayor’s Plan: Strengthen Our Buildings

WE ARE ALL IN THIS

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