SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #14

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: SUPER TYPHOON "LAWIN" [HAIMA]

Issued at 2:00 a.m., 20 October 2016
Super Typhoon "LAWIN" has made landfall over Penablanca, Cagayan and is now traversing
Apayao Province.
 • Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 400 km inner diameter of the
Super Typhoon while moderate to occasionally heavy rains elsewhere.
• It is expected to exit the landmass via Ilocos Norte between 8-10 this morning (October 20).
• Possible to exit PAR this evening (Oct. 20).
• Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and
eastern seaboards of Samar.
• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal over Albay is now lifted.

Location of Eye/Center:
In the vicinity of Solana, Cagayan
(as of 1:00 a.m.)

Coordinates: 17.7°N, 121.6°E

Maximum sustained winds of up to 225 kph near the center

Strength:
and gustiness of up to 315 kph

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 25 kph

 24 Hour( Tonight): 440 km West Northwest of Laoag City,

Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.2°N, 117.0°E)
 48 Hour(Saturday morning):865 km West Northwest of Basco,
Forecast
Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(24.3°N, 114.7°E)
Positions/Outlook:
 72 Hour(Sunday morning): 980 km North Northwest of Basco,
Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(28.0°N, 117.0°E)
 96 Hour(Monday morning):1,015 km North of Basco, Batanes
(OUTSIDE PAR)(29.3°N, 122.5°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impact of the wind

•Widespread damage to
high-risk structures
•Heavy damage to
5 medium risk structures;
Cagayan, Northern Isabela,
•Very heavy damage to
Apayao, Northern Kalinga
(More than 220 low-risk structures
Northern Abra and Ilocos
kph Expected •Almost total damage to
Norte
in 12 hours) structures of light
materials, especially in
highly exposed coastal
areas.
 •Complete roof failure on
many residences and
industrial buildings.
Severe and extensive
window and door damage.
•Most residential and
institutional buildings of
mixed construction may
be severely damaged.
•Electrical power
distribution and
communication services
severely disrupted.
•All signs/billboards blown
down.
•Total damage to banana
plantation
•Most tall trees are
broken, uprooted or
defoliated;
•Coconut trees are
stooped, broken or
uprooted.
•Few plants and trees
survived.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge more than 3 meters
possible at coastal areas

• Very heavy damage to

high–risk structures
• Heavy damage to
medium risk structures;
• Moderate damage to
low-risk structures
• Considerable damage to
4 structures of light
Rest of Isabela, Rest of Abra,
materials (up to 75% are
Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Rest
(171-220 totally and partially
of Kalinga, Ifugao and
kph Expected destroyed); complete roof
Calayan Group of Islands
in 12 hours) structure failures.
• Many houses of
medium-built materials are
unroofed, some with
collapsed walls; extensive
damage to doors and
windows
• A few houses of first-
 class materials are
partially damaged
• All signs/billboards are
blown down. There is
almost total damage to
banana plantation
• Most mango trees, ipil-
ipil and similar types of
large trees are downed or
broken.
• Coconut plantation may
suffer extensive damage.
• Rice and corn plantation
may suffer severe losses.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge 2-3 m possible
at coastal areas

• Heavy damage to high–

risk structures;
• Moderate damage to
medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk
structures
• Increasing damage (up
to more than 50%) to old,
dilapidated residential
structures and houses of
light materials. Majority of
all nipa and cogon houses
may be unroofed or
3
destroyed
La Union, Benguet, Nueva
• Houses of medium
(121-170 Vizcaya, Quirino and Northern
strength materials (old,
kph Expected Aurora
timber or mixed timber-
in 18 hours)
CHB structures, usually
with G.I. roofing’s); some
warehouses or bodega-
type structures are
unroofed.
• There may be
widespread disruption of
electrical power and
communication services.
• Almost all banana plants
are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia,
mango, etc.) are broken or
 uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid
coconut trees are tilted or
downed.
• Rice and corn crops may
suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery
and trees with foliage
blown off; some large
trees blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas

•Light to Moderate
damage to high risk
structures;
•Very light to light damage
to medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light
damage to low risk
structures
•Unshielded, old
dilapidated schoolhouses,
makeshift shanties, and
other structures of light
materials are partially
damaged or unroofed.
•A number of nipa and
2 cogon houses may be
Batanes Group of Islands,
partially or totally
Pangasinan, Rest of of
(61-120 unroofed.
Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija
kph Expected •Some old galvanized iron
and Northern Zambales
in 24 hours) (G.I.) roofs may be peeled
or blown off.
•Some wooden, old
electric posts are tilted or
downed.
•Some damage to poorly
constructed
signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may
bring light to moderate
damage to the exposed
communities. Most
banana plants, a few
mango trees, ipil-ipil and
similar types of trees are
downed or broken.
 •Some coconut trees may
be tilted with few others
broken.
•Rice and corn may be
adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to
shrubbery and trees with
some heavy-foliaged trees
blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal
areas

•Very light or no damage

to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium
to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some
Rest of Zambales, Bulacan, houses of very light
Bataan, Pampanga, Rizal, materials or makeshift
Quezon Province including structures in exposed
1 Polillo Island, Cavite, Laguna, communities. Some
(30-60 kph Batangas, Camarines Norte, banana plants are tilted, a
Expected in Camarines Sur, few downed and leaves
36 hours) Catanduanes, and Metro are generally damaged
Manila •Twigs of small trees may
be broken.
•Rice crops, however,
may suffer significant
damage when it is in its
flowering stage.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

 The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised
to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 AM
today.
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: SUPER TYPHOON "LAWIN" [HAIMA]
Issued at 5:00 p.m., 19 October 2016
Super Typhoon "Lawin" continues to pose a serious threat over Cagayan - Isabela Area.
 • Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 800 km diameter of the Super
Typhoon.
• It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan - Isabela Area late tonight (11:00 PM) up to
tomorrow early morning (Oct. 20), (2:00 AM) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte.
• Possible to exit PAR tomorrow evening (Oct. 20) or on Friday early morning (Oct. 21).
• Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and
eastern seaboards of Samar.

Location of Eye/Center:
275 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
(as of 4:00 p.m.)

Coordinates: 16.9°N, 124.2°E

Maximum sustained winds of up to 225 kph near the center

Strength:
and gustiness of up to 315 kph

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 25 kph

• 24 Hour( Tomorrow afternoon): 175 km West Northwest of Laoag City,

Ilocos Norte (18.6°N, 119.0°E)

• 48 Hour(Friday afternoon):635 km Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos

Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.7°N, 115.8°E)
Forecast
• 72 Hour(Saturday afternoon): 945 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Positions/Outlook:
(OUTSIDE PAR) (26.0°N, 115.0°E)

• 96 Hour(Sunday afternoon):930 km North Northwest of Basco,

Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (28.5°N, 119.6°E)

• 120 Hour(Monday afternoon):1,175 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes

(OUTSIDE PAR) (27.0°N, 131.0°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL

TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impact of the wind

•Widespread damage to
5
high-risk structures
Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga •Heavy damage to medium
(More than 220
and Apayao risk structures;
kph Expected
•Very heavy damage to low-
in 12 hours)
risk structures
 •Almost total damage to
structures of light materials,
especially in highly exposed
coastal areas.
•Complete roof failure on
many residences and
industrial buildings. Severe
and extensive window and
door damage.
•Most residential and
institutional buildings of
mixed construction may be
severely damaged.
•Electrical power distribution
and communication services
severely disrupted.
•All signs/billboards blown
down.
•Total damage to banana
plantation
•Most tall trees are broken,
uprooted or defoliated;
•Coconut trees are stooped,
broken or uprooted.
•Few plants and trees
survived.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge more than 3
meters possible at coastal areas

• Very heavy damage to

high–risk structures
• Heavy damage to medium
risk structures;
• Moderate damage to low-
risk structures
• Considerable damage to
4
Ilocos Norte, Abra, Ilocos structures of light materials
Sur, Mt. Province, Ifugao (up to 75% are totally and
(171-220
and Calayan Group of partially destroyed);
kph Expected
Islands complete roof structure
in 12 hours)
failures.
• Many houses of medium-
built materials are unroofed,
some with collapsed walls;
extensive damage to doors
and windows
• A few houses of first-class
 materials are partially
damaged
• All signs/billboards are
blown down. There is almost
total damage to banana
plantation
• Most mango trees, ipil-ipil
and similar types of large
trees are downed or broken.
• Coconut plantation may
suffer extensive damage.
• Rice and corn plantation
may suffer severe losses.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge 2-3 m possible
at coastal areas

• Heavy damage to high–risk

structures;
• Moderate damage to
medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk
structures
• Increasing damage (up to
more than 50%) to old,
dilapidated residential
structures and houses of
light materials. Majority of all
nipa and cogon houses may
be unroofed or destroyed
3 • Houses of medium
La Union, Benguet, Nueva strength materials (old,
(121-170 Vizcaya, Quirino and timber or mixed timber-CHB
kph Expected Northern Aurora structures, usually with G.I.
in 18 hours) roofing’s); some
warehouses or bodega-type
structures are unroofed.
• There may be widespread
disruption of electrical power
and communication
services.
• Almost all banana plants
are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia,
mango, etc.) are broken or
uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid
coconut trees are tilted or
 downed.
• Rice and corn crops may
suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery and
trees with foliage blown off;
some large trees blown
down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal
areas

•Light to Moderate damage

to high risk structures;
•Very light to light damage to
medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light
damage to low risk
structures
•Unshielded, old dilapidated
schoolhouses, makeshift
shanties, and other
structures of light materials
are partially damaged or
unroofed.
•A number of nipa and
cogon houses may be
Batanes Group of Islands, partially or totally unroofed.
2 Pangasinan, Rest of •Some old galvanized iron
Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva (G.I.) roofs may be peeled
(61-120 Ecija, Northern or blown off.
kph Expected Zambales, and Northern •Some wooden, old electric
in 24 hours) Quezon including Polillo posts are tilted or downed.
Islands •Some damage to poorly
constructed signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may
bring light to moderate
damage to the exposed
communities. Most banana
plants, a few mango trees,
ipil-ipil and similar types of
trees are downed or broken.
•Some coconut trees may
be tilted with few others
broken.
•Rice and corn may be
adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to
shrubbery and trees with
 some heavy-foliaged trees
blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal
areas

•Very light or no damage to

low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to
high risk structures
•Slight damage to some
Rest of Zambales, Bulacan, houses of very light
Bataan, Pampanga, Rizal, materials or makeshift
Rest of Quezon, Cavite, structures in exposed
1 Laguna, Batangas, communities. Some banana
(30-60 kph Camarines Norte, plants are tilted, a few
Expected in Camarines Sur, downed and leaves are
36 hours) Catanduanes, Albay and generally damaged
Metro Manila •Twigs of small trees may be
broken.
•Rice crops, however, may
suffer significant damage
when it is in its flowering
stage.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

 The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised
to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 8 PM
today.