Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
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ZOI NIKOPOULOU
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to professor Arne Jensen at the Department of Logistics and Transport Research Group
at Handels Business School who has taken the time and trouble to alert me of errors. Special thanks
to Hulda Winnes and professor Sven Lyngfelt at the Lighthouse Competence Centre who subjected
my text to rigorous scrutiny and much improved its quality.
Many thanks to Kjell Sandaker who took the time to explain the reality of gas driven ships in Norway;
reading reports would not have compensated for the valuable insight so generously shared.
My thanks to Claus Nikolajsen of Scandlines and Bertil Arvidsson of the Swedish Shipowners
Association for their comments and thoughts.
My thanks also to Unni Einemo from the Bunkerworld who promptly provided with invaluable data. And
to Jan Alsin, Janne Rask, Espen.R.Kristiansen, Lena Blomqvist, Ingrid Carlsen, Lennart Harardson,
Ronald Nilsson, Thomas Stenhede, Carl Johan von Sydow and all the shipowners who helped put
dissimilar pieces together and draw a broad sketch.
The study was financed by the Lighthouse competence centre.
Summary
This is a study that examines some of the different alternatives for reducing nitrogen and sulphur
oxides emissions at sea and evaluates them in a future NOx and SOx European emissions market,
where ships can voluntarily participate by providing credits, as it has been proposed by the Swedish
Shipowners’ Association. The aim of the study is to record costs and benefits of such investments for
real ships operating in the EU waters and to be a useful guide, while the idea of emission trading is
under discussion.
NOx and SOx are two chemical components deriving during combustion and which are harmful to the
environment. Transportation is responsible for about half of the NOx and SOx emissions in Europe.
More grams per kWh are emitted from mobile sources than from stationary sources due to available
technologies and space limitations.
It is imperative to reduce NOx and SOx to sustainable levels. This will allow water reserves and soils
to start recovering throughout Europe. Coordination and regulation is needed on a local, national and
European level, as pollution is transboundary. Among the different approaches, are environmentally
differentiated charges (taxes, discounts and dues), consortium benchmarking, environmental
subsidies to support investments on clean technologies and the credit-based approach (emissions
trading).
According to the credit-based approach, the large combustion installations in a geographical area are
capped in terms of their maximum annual emissions. Emissions are quantified in tons and counted in
credits. If an installation emits less than its allocated credits, it can trade the difference in the
emissions market. The result is that the same amount of reductions is achieved in total but through a
market mechanism, which balances costs between sectors. All different approaches have their pros
and cons but the brilliance of the credit-based system is that it initiates a company’s involvement as
profits await those installations, which can achieve over-reductions.
This study examines the costs and benefits for ships participating voluntarily in NOx and SOx cap-and-
trade program in EU.
• The study samples 37 real ships with different operational and technical characteristics in
terms of their annual NOx and SOx emissions
• A worksheet is fed with information such as, the revolutions per minute, the total main engine
output during steaming, the engine type, the fuel type, the annual steaming time and the
average utility of engine power in order to calculate annual fuel consumption and annual NOx
and SOx emissions with and without the various alternatives
• Virtually installs different cleaning technologies or switches fuel and costs each alternative per
ship
• Counts tradable reductions per ship per alternative in tons per year
• Counts revenues from trade per ship according to an average price estimate from the
emissions market
• Evaluates all alternatives in a 5 year time frame
• Examines the environmental performance of every alternative
• Evaluates returns according to the snapshot of the north European marine fuels market for
twelve consecutive months (August 2006 to August 2007)
The expenditure for installing cleaning technologies is relatively small, compared to annual fuel costs,
thus all cleaning technologies are understood as an accessory. Among the sampled technologies, the
Selective Catalyst Reduction system (SCR) is slightly in advance, concerning the rate of returns. By
average, one installation can support a second within five years. Humid Air Motor (HAM) technology
has a slightly slower rate with a pay back at three years, but it comes at an advantage beyond the time
frame of the study, since HAM bears no operational costs (it is a one-time investment). The sea-water
scrubber comes with a higher cost per ton than the estimate from the emissions markets, thus it bears
IV
no profits in emission trading. Nevertheless, SCR may provide with a compliance solution for reducing
sulphur in sulphur emission control areas (SECAs), since fuel costs overall are much less than those
of fuel switching into distillates.
All emission reductions and costs have been summarised in the Table above. The numbers are
expressed as per cent, with the baseline (100%) to be the low sulphur residual of IFO max 1.5 % (380
centistokes). Low sulphur residuals (maximum 1.5% sulphur content) do not provide any trading
volumes for the emission markets but are treated as the baseline for comparing purposes. Distillates
increase costs disproportionably to emission reductions and to an extent that cannot be overlooked.
Natural gas achieves the largest gains from emission markets and provides lesser annual fuel costs
but a possible increase in shipbuilding costs (for other vessels than gas carriers) shows that shifting to
natural gas may require some kind of encouragement. The author believes that the emissions market
could take the place of a subsidy. Gas infrastructure on land (refilling stations appropriate for shipping)
will determine the sea traffic, which can potentially utilise natural gas but further study is needed on
this.
A credit-based approach gives incentives to sectors with low abatement costs to invest on cleaning
technology and provide inexpensive credits in the emissions market. The largest recipients of cost
savings will be land installations with high abatement costs, such as energy related sectors, which
shall be able to inexpensively comply with European regulation and sustain flexible production levels.
Furthermore, any participation of non-capped sectors is expected to supply the pool with inexpensive
credits. For shipping, it is strategically beneficial not so much for the margin of profit, but because it
motivates shipping companies to invest on cleaning technologies, during a period of pressure for
further environmental regulations.
V
Glossary
Allowance (or Permit) Permission to emit one ton of a gas in a specified time (usually a year)
Allocation The act of allocating emission allowances
Banking The possibility to carry over reduction units from one period to another. For CO2 it cannot exceed 10% of the
allowances. In California’s RECLAIM NOx banking is nominally prohibited because periods slightly overlap.
Baseline The target against which all is measured. Usually it is historical emissions of a reference year eg, Kyoto
Protocol and California’s RECLAIM refer to the historical emissions of 1990 as their baseline
BAT Best available technology, of the most effective and advanced stage, under economically and technically
viable conditions
BAU Business as usual, no measures taken for reducing emissions
Cap The upper limit of emissions in tons within a period of time
Capex Capital expenditure. The money spend to buy and install a cleaning system
Command The traditional way of dictating emission limits facility-by-facility
and control
FOB Free on board
HAM Humid air motor is a technology which reduces nitrogen oxides emissions
Hot spot Localised high emissions due to trading and/or a geographical shift to where emissions are physically reduced
Hot air Over-allocation of CO2 allowances in eg, former Soviet Union states, which received allowances according to
the 1990 baseline but saw their industries break down during the 1990s and thus, can sell these emission
credits without any reduction efforts.
IFO Intermediate fuel oil. The viscosity of which is measured in centistokes, thus, IFO380 cst and IFO180 cst, now
available in regular and low sulphur content (LS)
MAC Marginal abatement costs. The change in cost when producing one more unit. In the case of emission trade,
they draw ‘the shadow price’ of the traded gas taking into account environmental constraints
MDO Marine diesel oil, a refined oil product of max 2% sulphur content (ISO 8217). In Europe it is sold in max
1,5%s but as of 2010 it will be sold in 0.1%s
MGO Marine gas oil, a refined oil product of max 0,2% sulphur content, soon enough (2008) to be sold in max
0.1%s in EU
MSD Medium Speed Diesel Engine
NEC National Emission Ceilings. Permission to emit x tons by gas for a whole country, allocated by the European
Commission, the NECs are currently under review and are expected to lower in time
NOx Oxygen compounds of nitrogen. The family of nitrogen oxides emissions is produced during combustion
OTC Over the counter
PM Particulate Matter (particles)
Reduction Yet another name for emission reduction unit. One credit= 1 ton of a gas reduced
credit
ROI Return on Investment is a simple tool comprehensive by people from different scientific backgrounds and is
used to evaluate the rate of returns of an investment compared to its costs. ROI=100*net benefits/costs,
where net benefits equal to revenues minus costs.
SECA In Sulphur Emission Control Areas sulphur content in marine fuel is regulated to be maximum 1.5 % by mass
as seen in Annex VI of the MARPOL convention
SCR Selective catalyst reductions system is a technology which decreases nitrogen oxides emissions
SMA Swedish Maritime Administration (Sjöfartsverket)
SOx Oxygen compounds of sulphur. The family of sulphur oxides emissions, mainly consisting of SO2, is produced
during combustion
SSD Slow Speed Diesel Engine
Contents
1
US EPA
2
___________________________________________________________________________
Figure 1 Anthropogenic emissions of NOx in 1990 from the 5th Envrionmental Action programme (5EAP) target
sectors. Source: Corinair, EEA-ETC/AE
For sea transport, news is unpleasant as projections for 2010-20 show that NOx and SOx emissions
from sea regions will surpass those from land (see Appendix, Figure A). SOx deposition from
international shipping is 10-20% in coastal areas but for some areas ships will be responsible for 50%
of the depositions by 20202. This will not be unnoticed and international shipping will eventually bear
the consequences in policymaking. It would be of strategic importance to lower shipping NOx and SOx
emissions in time and with a minimum cost on an economic and political level.
2
Naturskyddsföreningen, [Online Available] http://www.ccb.se/documents/airpollredshipsSO.pdf, Nov 2007
3
3
NERA Economic Consulting
4
US EPA, Cap and trade essentials
4
Trading can be made anonymously through an emissions market5 (i.e. stock exchange for emissions)
or over the counter (OTC), as a private sale; either directly from one company to another, or through a
dealer. The mechanism of supply-and-demand influences the selling price of the emission commodity
and the pattern of price fluctuation. Naturally, the price of traded emissions will not exceed the
compliance fine per ton. An installation can also bank emission credits for the next trading period, but
banking can not be excessive, usually no more than 10% of the annual allowances.
The cap and trade tool is best suited when environmental concern occurs over a relatively large area
caused by a large number of polluting sources sharing different abatement costs and with the ability to
effectively monitor reductions. For a credit based system to succeed, it is important to fairly allocate
emission allowances and to set the cap low enough so that companies have incentive to invest in
clean technologies.
NOx and SOx trading programs pioneer in USA and operate under the supervision of the US EPA.
RECLAIM, a local program in Los Angeles, California, is the only program including ships, which can
trade with installations of the coastal area (namely ‘Zone 1’) but not with inland installations (referred
to as ‘Zone 2’). For the participating ships a time contract is conducted to ensure that the supply of
credits in the pool is constant. Results from the American programs6 are reported to be remarkable,
with SO2 reducing faster and at lower costs than anticipated. Water reserves with acid depositions are
recovering in the Northeast and sulphate deposition is 25-50% lower than the 1990 levels in the
Northeast and the Midwest. Results are also encouraging concerning localised high emissions (hot
spots). There hasn’t been a geographic shifting of emissions due to the trade, on the contrary, it is the
largest emitters that reduce the largest amounts (Figure 3).
5
Examples of emissions Exchanges are the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE),
the European Climate Exchange (ECX), Nord Pool, Powernext, the Austrian Energy Exchange (EXAA) and the New York Stock
Exchange. More information [Online] Available, page 37, http://www.ieta.org/ieta/www/pages/getfile.php?docID=2214
6
US EPA, Cap and trade: Acid rain program results
5
Figure 3 Decrease in sulphate depositions over time and ’hot spots’. Source: NADP
Critique on emission trading schemes (as opposed to the traditional command and control option for
installations individually), do not refer to their theoretical effectiveness but question the situations,
where they can effectively apply. The focus is on high localised emissions, due to trading credits
instead of reducing emissions within the installation, the harmful effect of which is said to be little in the
case of NOx and SOx7. Cap-and trade programs are also criticised as regressive, meaning that
allocation of emissions permits grandfathers older and highly polluting installations8.
• IIASA’s abatement costs per sector were calculated with technical measures and thus, have
been said to slightly emphasize on costlier solutions10
• NEC Directive will not be met by all member states for both gases
• Political fermentation and market mechanisms tend to smoothen environmental costs
• Fluctuations towards both up and down are expected and the estimates are only considered
for a cost-benefit evaluation of the cleaning alternatives, following a conservative route
7
Zimmermann
8
Parry
9
Indicative average abatement costs in Euros per ton for sectors with ‘beyond Business As Usual’ NOx and SOx measures are
supplied by IIASA for 2010 and 2020 and can also be found in reports by Entec to EC DG Environment General
10 The Swedish Environmental Research Institute Gothenburg, IVL
6
The Swedish Shipowners Association has made a proposal for voluntary participation of ships in a
NOx and SOx emission trading scheme within the EU. The proposal refers to national environmental
targets set by the NEC Directive for those installations targeted by the IPPC Directive. The proposal
acknowledges the potential of the maritime sector to further reduce emissions, the ability to verify
reductions at sea, the gaining potential for land-based installations and defines the general parameters
of trade (Figure 4). A Swedish governmental inquiry produced an investigation by SIKA, Sjöfartsverket,
Naturvårdsverket and Energimyndighetens, which reports on the theoretic potential of a credit-based
approach but is neutrally positioned otherwise.
• 37 ships (25 ships plus 12 sister ships) steaming in EU waters, which for reasons of
anonymity have been coded as Car carrier 1, Car carrier 2 etc.
• Different types, such as car carriers (4), container ships (3), cruise (2), general cargo (1),
passenger (7), Ro-Ro cargo (9), tankers (8), supply/icebreakers (3) and utility (1).
• Different sizes, with total main engine kilowatt output ranging between 2 200kW to 72 000kW
with a product tanker and a cruise ship at the low and high end of the sample. The average
output is 20 000 kW but the median is 14 480kW, which is considered as medium size.
Technical specifications were retrieved mainly by Lloyd’s Fairplay Database.
• Most samples were medium speed diesel (MSD) with 4 high speed diesels (HSD) and 3 slow
speed diesels (SSD).
• 7 of the 37 ships confirmed using distillates in their main engines at the time of inquiry
• Annual main engine time utility ranges from 1 500 hours (17%) to 7 780 hours (89%) of the
calendar year, while by average ships steamed 5 077 hours (58%). Low steaming times had a
visitor cruise ship from overseas, a passenger ship (surprisingly) and short-sea tankers ships
with relatively long loading and unloading times.
• The average utility of engine power is 82%, ranging from 68-95%.
• The annual fuel consumption in tons varies also (1 500 – 3 8000 tons), with the average to be
in the middle (15 800 tons).
• All ships have been assumed to steam only within the SECAs and operate under the SECA
emission requirements. In reality 10 ships operate elsewhere in the EU waters or are
chartered in the European north. The reason for this assumption, is to explore the emission
markets for shipping companies under stricter baselines.
• The car carriers have also been assumed to operate fully within the SECA, although in reality
they voyage overseas.
• Cleaning technologies are assumed to have scrap value equal to zero
For every ship, annual nitrogen and sulphur oxide emissions were computed in tons assuming that
there is no cleaning technology on-board. Their emissions were calculated for main engine steaming,
according to the ship’s revolutions per minute (RPM), IMO’s NOx curve, an indicator of specific fuel
consumption from the NTM methodology11 and the ship’s operational characteristics (main engine time
utilization, engine power utility, (see Appendix Table B), while SOx emissions were calculated
according to the sulphur content in fuel by mass. Any emissions at berth and/or during manoeuvring
have been excluded for reasons of simplicity. Then the annual NOx and SOx emissions were
calculated per ship for different cleaning technologies or switching to distillate fuels:
11
Nätverket för Transporter och Miljön, NTM, http://www.ntm.a.se/index.asp
8
Reductions achieved below the IMO baselines are considered tradable and used thereafter in the
study for calculating revenues from the emissions market. Ships are assumed to sell all their tradable
credits.
Ships were ‘virtually’ placed to operate under SECA conditions12 and to participate in the NOx and
SOx emission markets. Tradable emissions were calculated in tons per ship per annum for all above
alternatives. After consulting installation companies and having deployed the relevant literature, total
expenditure13 was calculated and spread per traded ton. Costs and payback are tested in the
emissions markets under a five year time frame, in order to have the same denominator for all
cleaning technologies. Capital expenditure for all technologies is spread equally into five years and all
numerical results thereafter consider a five year write off (see Appendix, Table C.).
Last but not least, the estimates for revenues were decided upon only after consulting marginal
abatement costs of the land based industry14, which are expected to be the targets of a cap-and-trade
program, possibly those installations defined in the IPPC Directive. There after, revenues are
calculated using the lowest marginal abatement costs of the land-based industry, which correspond to
900 Euros per traded NOx ton and 960 Euros per traded SOx ton. Due to lack of a real market in
operation, the estimates mirror the expected average selling price per unit. And thus, all alternatives
were evaluated to see the rate on investment and the pay back period. In any case, a discrepancy
between the estimates and real prices as they develop in a future market is expected, but the aim of
the study -examining the scenario of a credit-based trading system including ships- will hopefully be
satisfied.
12
In SECA the maximum sulphur content is 1.5%
13
Total costs include capital expenditure, maintenance, operation, monitoring and verification costs for a five year time horizon.
14
As given by IIASA, found in reports by Entec Consulting Ltd, Task 2b and 2c
9
PM
IFO max 1.5 % sulphur residual 100 100 100 100 100
SCR & IFO max 1.5% sulphur 100 10 100 100 100
HAM & IFO max 1.5% sulphur 100 30 100 100 100
LNG 0 10 3 1 75
Table 2 Marine fuels average selling price FOB Rotterdam (August 2006-August 2007) and in percentage Source:
Bunkerworld
Under the modest scenario of MDO and MGO stabilizing at last year’s prices, switching to MDO will
increase fuel costs to 161%, while switching to MGO will increase fuel costs to 179% compared to the
low sulphur residual baseline (IFO 380). In practice, for all sampled ships this meant an annual cost
increase between 270 000Euro and 7.3mEuro for annual fuel consumptions ranging between 1 500 to
38 000 tons. This increase is remarkable; spreading the cost increase per ton (NOx + SOx) reduced is
4 600 Euro for switching to MDO and 6 000 Euros for switching to MGO. The cost of the emission
reduction per ton is too high to have any selling potential in the emissions market.
If ships switch to distillates and simultaneously participate in the emissions market, annual fuel costs
increase to 155% by average for MDO and 166% for MGO for all sampled ships. It is apparent that
11
gains from trading NOx and SOx reductions are negligable compared to annual increase in fuel costs.
Switching to distillates does not appear to be a cost-efficient solution so other alternatives need to be
scrutinised.
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15
Lövbald and Fridell
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17
For every 1000 hours 6 cleaning events are required for 150 Euros per event (Entec). In this report 8 000Euros per annum
were considered for all ships, irrespective of main engine time utility.
12
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The average rate of return is 100% with a payback period of 2.7 years. Which means that, within the
five year time horizon of this study, one SCR installation can support another one in the same fleet.
Assuming that the ship regularly receives the Swedish Maritime Administration fairway dues discounts,
repay can be shorter to a couple of months (average of 2.5 years). For a ship with little steaming time
but large gross tonnage, discounts can be a relief cutting down repay time considerably. This was the
example of tankers and sister ships with only 30% of steaming time but over 11 000 of gross tonnage,
which received noticeable discounts under the SMA rebate system and thus, cut the payback period
by 1 year – from 6.3 to 5 years. The SMA discounts cut, by average, the dues almost to half. They
also consist of the 14% of the total annual SCR costs- ranging from 2% to 63% depending on the
ship’s gross tonnage. For this reason, they may not always act as a strong incentive to install the SCR
system for all types of ships.
After the five year time horizon, and according to some literature18, the catalyst reactor may have to be
rebuilt. The main component, the catalyst, requires rebuilding depending on the type of fuel during
operation. There is noticeable uncertainty19 concerning the time estimate; this study assumes a grim
window of 5 years (Table 3):
Table 3 Capital costs and fuel content. Source: Entec
2.7 In 3 years
18
Entec Task 2b, page 8-9
19
Holmstrom vs. US EPA (Entec)
13
Concerning the sensitivity to IMO NOx curve baseline, at 6 grams of nitrogen oxides per kilowatt hour
ships commence to show loss, which gradually peaks at 2 gram NOx/kWh, with steaming time to be a
contributing factor (see Appendix Table D).
20
page 45, Task 2b, Entec Consulting
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Sea-water Scrubber & IFO380 LS max 1.5% Sea-water Scrubber & IFO380 max 2.7%
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21
AGS, The Alliance for Global Sustainability.
16
than gas carriers but for road transport, natural gas buses have been running successfully in urban
areas. Due to persistent high oil prices and under tougher environmental pressure, the option of
burning natural gas receives attention in this study.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) comes undoubtedly first in terms of environmental performance,
minimising NOx, SOx, PM and of all alternatives, it is the only one that reduces CO2. Emissions from
burning natural gas are just 1.42 grams of NOx per kilowatt hour and almost zero sulphur (0.00154
grams per kilowatt hour) giving a lot of reduction credits to ships participating in the emissions markets
(Figure 7). In comparison, the current IMO NOx curve is 10 to 17 gram per kilowatt hour depending on
the engine’s revolutions per minute.
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Prices for LNG can vary per geographical location and after consulting local suppliers in Göteborg a
selling price of 0.045 Euros per kilowatt hour (0.42 SEK/kWh) was generously set for the volumes and
attributes of international shipping22. With this price scenario, the annual costs for burning LNG are by
average 92% of the low sulphur IFO380 costs. In the case of ships participating in the emissions
markets, the revenues are notable and the cost balance after trade is down to 58% of the IFO380LS
annual costs (Figure 8). Concerning sensitivity over the fuel price, for a fixed netto price of
0.0353Euros per kilowatt hour (see Appendix,Table F), natural gas annual costs comprise, by average,
only the 71% of low sulphur residual bunker costs.
The brake even point, where annual fuel costs of natural gas and low sulphur residual oil (IFO380 LS)
are equal is, by average 0.04996 €/kWh (0.46SEK/kWh). If revenues from the emissions markets are
included, the brake even point between these two fuels is 0.0668 €/kWh (0.61 SEK/kWh). In addition
to lower fuel costs, LNG has normally been less volatile than oil, with prices locked under long time
contracts; an assisting factor for cost planning.
22
As seen in table Table E of the Appendix, the highest LNG netto price was 0,035Euros per kilowatt hour (0,32SEK/kWh) but
after communicating with secondary sources an exaggeration of 30% was decided upon for all of the cost calculations
17
10000000
9000000
8000000
Annual costs (Euro)
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
en v y
Ca l
Pa ru i 2
Ro sse e 1
ca r 2
Pa en g 2
Ro se r 4
Ro o c r 1
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R r ca ker
Pa ru i 1
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Ro ca 8
6
Ro r ca o 7
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t
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e
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Co rgo
ss e r
er e r
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e
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-R n ge
Pa
-R rri e
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R rri e
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rg
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fis
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--
e
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Ex
IFO380 LS LNG Annual LNG costs with emission trading
The results are very encouraging concerning fuel costs so the scope is widened to comprehend if
other difficulties are involved:
• Natural gas storage facilities require more space and are heavier compared to those of
conventional diesel
• Storing is done in special cryogen tanks in vacuum and perlite insulated tanks (supplier in
Göteborg exists)
• Storing and supply systems are exclusive installations compared to conventional fuel tanks
• Even if the ‘lean burn gas motor’ cost 20-30% dearer than the conventional diesel engine, this
difference appears to have recently dropped to nil.
• Shipbuilding cost may increase by 20-25% (DNV)23.
Of the 37 sampled ships, shipbuilding costs were available for 12. Cost increase was calculated as if
the ships were built in 2006 in order to be gas driven:
Newbuild cost increase [Euro] = 0.25 * total inflated shipbuilding expenditure [USD] * 0,758
The cost increase was divided by the fuel annual cost difference between IFO380 and LNG, plus the
revenues from the emissions markets:
Newbuild cost increase [Euro] / (Δfuel + annual revenues from the emissions market) [Euro/year] =
time required to brake even [years]
As seen at Table 5, emission trading can support increased shipbuilding costs for environmentally
friendlier ships. The cruise ships are luxurious and expensive to build so results are exaggerated;
Passenger 3 has unusually low steaming times and any investment on-board has low return rate.
Among other factors, the burden of an exclusive installation, as this of the LNG, could discourage the
23
Det Norske Veritas 2005
18
investing on gas driven ships. A credit-based trading system can play the role of a subsidy and may
increase the interest of the market for the economic and environmental possibilities entangled.
Table 5 Time required to compensate for the increased ship building costs in natural gas driven ships in and out of the
emission market
*Assumes annual cost difference between LNG and IFO380 LS (Δfuel) to be constant
Last but not least, currently supply locations for ships are still scarce within the current SECAs.
Nevertheless, a brief search shows that supplier and distributors multiply their facilities, some of which
are appropriate for supply ships. Infrastructure for ships and investing on gas driven ships is a
dynamic and simultaneous process. The author is positive that in the next years it is possible to create
supply points for ships and to provide the SECAs with a viable option for the general traffic.
Table 6 – Market price for 1% sulphur residuals Source: Bunkerworld and Broström
As seen in Table 6, by purchasing 1% sulphur content residuals, annual fuel costs increase by 8%. In
practice this means a cost increase between 27 000 Euros to 733 130 Euros per year according to the
ship’s annual fuel consumption. For the SCR and HAM technologies, the annual revenue in the
emissions markets is half the cost (51%), that is, for 960 Euros per ton expected to flow in, 1895 Euros
are spent. The cost-benefit ratio is 2:1, so the cost of reducing one ton of sulphur oxides is double the
revenue estimate of the SOx commodity in the emission market. For the sea-water scrubber
technology, the reduction in SOx emissions is disproportional as the switching to 1% sulphur fuel
contributes to just few more SOx tons reduced:
For the HAM/SCR
ΔFuel Cost : Δ Revenues = 2 : 1
ΔFuel Cost : Δ Reduction Credits = 1895 Euro,
Where ΔFuelCost is the difference between IFO 380 1.5% sulphur residual and IFO 380 1% sulphur
residual per year,
ΔRevenues is the extra revenues acquired by switching from 1.5 to 1 % sulphur residual
and
ΔReduction Credits are the additional tradable credits gained by switching from 1.5 to 1 % sulphur
residual
Likewise, for the Sea-water Scrubber
ΔFuel Cost : ΔRevenues = 8 : 1
ΔFuel Cost : ΔReduction Credits = 7580 Euro
The discount from the Swedish Maritime Administration is negligible; 470Euros per year by average
(median is 266Euros). Passenger ships, which have usually larger tonnage, have the same dues in
both fuel categories (Table F, Appendix). Although, the economic effort to reduce sulphur oxides is
noticeable, the relief is petite. Switching to 1%sulphur residuals may still be perceived as an attractive
idea in order to comply with regulation (compared to other options) but it does not create cost-efficient
credits in the emission markets.
20
IFO max 1 % sulphur residual 67 100 100* 100* 100 108 108 104
SCR & IFO max 1% sulphur** 67 10 100 100 100 108 119 94
HAM & IFO max 1% sulphur** 67 30 100 100 100 108 121 100
24
‘Power Intensive Industries object to windfall profits from Emissions’, CEMBUREAU, Bruxelles
http://www.cembureau.be/Cem_warehouse/
22
replaced by road transport. This weakens shipping competitiveness and ironically undermines the EU
strategic planning for less road emissions, congestions and noise.
Natural gas results are very encouraging in dealing effectively with the problem and providing a flow of
revenues in the emissions markets for the shipping company. At the same time, the fuel selling price is
economical, resulting in further cost cuts. A generous increase in shipbuilding costs -for the non gas
carrier ships- denotes that some kind of support or encouragement may be considered to initiate
shipbuilding. The revenues from the emissions markets can conditionally take the place of a subsidy.
Further study on infrastructure will clarify for which ships and/or ship routes LNG use is applicable in
the north and the northwest.
In whatever way the scheme is actually implemented, it initiates the interest of an industry otherwise
exempted. Concerning timing, shipping is very close to becoming the centre of attention in European
policy since soon enough, shipping will emit more nitrogen and sulphur oxides than all land sectors
combined. Hopefully, a credit-based trading system for NOx and SOx in EU will make use of the long
experience from other programs, will stay transparent and unbiased, resulting in lower emissions
overall, lesser costs and prove to be the starting point for the recovery of our environment.
23
3500000
3000000
Annual revenues from emission market (Euro)
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
er
er
t
l
2
r4
go
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ity
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er
er
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er
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ie
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rg
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is
is
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U
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ng
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ng
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ve
rr
re
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ru
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on
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Ta
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eb
al
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ss
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ss
er
o
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er
ar
ar
ar
ar
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en
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o-
o-
o-
o-
ly
is
R
Ta
pp
- -f
G
R
R
Su
e
pl
m
xa
LNG total annual revenues from the emission markets SCR total annual revenues from the emission markets (1,5%sulphur fuel)
E
HAM total annual revenues from the emission markets (1,5%sulphur fuel) SOx MGO 0,1%s fuel annual revenues
SWS total annual revenues from the emission markets (1,5%sulphur fuel) MDO total annual revenues from the emission markets
Figure 9 Annual revenues from the emissions markets per alternative per ship
Euro Euro
Ro Ro
Ro Ro
0,00
2 000 000,00
4 000 000,00
6 000 000,00
8 000 000,00
10 000 000,00
12 000 000,00
14 000 000,00
16 000 000,00
0,00
2 000 000,00
4 000 000,00
6 000 000,00
8 000 000,00
10 000 000,00
12 000 000,00
14 000 000,00
16 000 000,00
Pa Pa
C x2 C x2
Pa r ui Pa r ui
ss se ss se
en 1 en 1
ge ge
r r
Ro 2 Ro 2
Ro Ro
C 1 C 1
Pa r ui Pa r ui
ss se ss se
2 2
Pa eng Pa eng
ss er ss er
4 4
LS IFO380
LS IFO380
Ro en Ro en
-R g e -R g e
o r o r
Ro c a 1 Ro c a 1
Ro rg o Ro rg o
c 3 c 3
Ca a rg Ca a rg
rc o8 rc o8
Ca ar ri Ca ar ri
e e
Ro r ca r 1 Ro r ca r 1
-R r rie -R r rie
o o
Ro c a r 4 Ro c a r 4
-R rg -R rg
o o o o
24
c 6 c 6
c a arg c a arg
rc o rc o
Ro ar 7 Ro ar 7
R rier R rier
Ro o ca 2 Ro o ca 2
Su -R rg Su -R rg
pp o c o 9 pp o c o 9
ly a ly a
/ic rg o /ic rg o
eb
r 2 eb
r 2
Ca ea Ca ea
r k r k
Ro ca er Ro ca er
-R r rie -R r rie
Ro o c r 3 Ro o c r 3
Annual fuel costs inside the emission markets
Figure 10 Sulphur alternatives - Annual fuel costs in and out of the emissions markets
-R arg -R arg
Annual fuel costs outside the emission markets
o o o o
ca 4 ca 4
rg rg
Ta o 5 Ta o 5
nk nk
e e
Ta r 1 Ta r 1
s e s e
Ro s en r 2 Ro s en r 2
-R g e -R g e
o r o r
MDO
MDO
ca 3 ca 3
rg rg
Co o Co o
nt 1 nt 1
Ex ai Ex ai
MGO
MGO
am Ta ner am Ta ner
pl n pl n
e ke
r e ke
r
- -f - -f
is h U 3 is h U 3
in t ilit in t ilit
G gv y G gv y
en e en e
er ss er ss
Natural gas
e e
natural gas
al al
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Ta rgo Ta rgo
nk nk
er er
4 4
25
References
Alliance for Global Sustainability, AGS, ’Sea-water scrubbing- reduction of SOx emissions from ship
exausts’, Göteborg 2007
Det Norske Veritas, Teknisk Rapport No 2005-1095, Revisjon nr 03, Miljøverndepartementet
Reduksjoner av NOx i fartøyer – Tiltaksanalyse
Directive 1996/61/EC (IPPC Directive), Concerning integrated pollution prevention and control,
[Online] Available http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ippc/pdf/ippc_report_en.pdf, Sep 2007
Directive 2001/81/EC on National Emission Ceilings and Annex I (NEC Directive), [Online] Available
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/oj/2001/l_309/l_30920011127en00220030.pdf , Sep 2007
European Environment Agency (EEA), Tropospheric Ozone in EU - The consolidated report, Topic
report No 8/1998, ISBN: 92-828-5672-0, [Online] Available http://reports.eea.europa.eu/TOP08-
98/en/page005.html
Energimyndigheten, Naturvårdsverket, SIKA and Sjöfartsverket, Handels med utsläppsrätter för svavel
och kväveoxider inkluderande sjöfart, 2007, Dnr 0602-06-02200
Entec UK Ltd, Service Contract on Ship Emissions: Assignment, Abatement and Market-based
Instruments, Task 2b – NOX Abatement and Task 2c – SO2 Abatement [Online] Available
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_nox.pdf
and http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_so2.pdf, Sep 2007
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, ‘Baseline Scenarios for the Clean Air for
Europe (CAFE) Programme’, [Online] Available http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/CAFE_files/Cafe-
Lot1_FINAL(Oct).pdf
Lövblad, G and Fridell, E., ‘Experiences from use of some techniques to reduce emissions from ships’,
Göteborg, 2006,
[Online] Available
http://www.vgregion.se/upload/Milj%C3%B6/Transporter/Engelsk%20rapport%20060428.pdf
Nätverket för Transporter och Miljön (NTM), Methods and data for environmental assessment of
international cargo transport, January 2005
NERA Economic Consulting, ‘Economic Instruments for Reducing Ship Emissions in the European
Union – European Commission 2005, Directorate General Environment’, [Online] Available
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_so2.pdf,
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task2_nox.pdf
and http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/task3_final.pdf, Sep 2007
Ozone Position Paper, [Online]
Available http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/documents/pos_paper.pdf, Sep 2007
Parry, Ian W.H., Are Emissions Permits Regressive? Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 03-
21, June 2003, [Online] Available http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-03-21.pdf
(European Associations of) Power intensive industries object to windfall profits from Emissions
Trading, [Online]
Available http://www.cembureau.be/Cem_warehouse/2-
INDIRECT%20IMPACT%20OF%20EMISSIONS%20TRADING%20ON%20ELECTRICITY%20PRICE
S.PDF
Swedish Methodology for Environmental Data (SMED), Methodology for calculating emissions from
ships:1. Update of emission factors, 2004
Swedish Environmental Research Institute Gothenburg, Service contract for Review of the RAINS
Integrated Assessment Model - Reference ENV.C1/SER/2003/0079, [Online] Available
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/cafe/activities/pdf/rain_model.pdf
Swedish Shipowners Association and Pricewaterhousecoopers, Emissions Trading Schemes in
Europe for SO2 & NOX including shipping, 2006, [Online] Available
26
http://www.sweship.se/Files/PDFDokument/060515_Final_SSAProposal.pdf
US EPA, Cap and trade: Acid rain program results, [Online] Available
http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/cap-trade/docs/ctresults.pdf
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trade/docs/ctessentials.pdf, Sep 2007
US EPA, Ground level Ozone, [Online] Available, http://epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/index.html, Sep
2007
Zimmermann, Michelle, The Clean Air Mercury Rule: Understanding the Controversy, MIT
Undergraduate Research Journal, [Online] Available, http://web.mit.edu/murj/www/v13/v13-
Features/v13-f3.pdf
Contacts
(Alphabetically)
Carl Johan von Sydow, Sales/Purchases, Top Oil, E-mail: carljohan@topoil.se
Espen.R.Kristiansen, Purchasing Manager, Scandlines, E-mail: espen.r.kristiansen@scandlines.dk
Jan Alsin, Laboratory Manager – Manager, Saybolt, E-mail: jan.alsin@corelab.com
Janne Rask, Anderstorp Gas, EON, E-mail: janne.rask@eon.se
Hulda Winnes, Doctorate student, Lighthouse, hulda.winnes@chalmers.se
Ingrid Carlsen, Bunker Purchaser, Broström Tankers AB, E-mail: Ingrid.Carlsen@brostrom.se
Kjell Sandaker, Project Development, Eidesvik*, E-mail: kjell.sandaker@eidensvik.no
Lena Blomqvist, VP Environment Global Environment, Corporate Affairs, Wallenius Wilhelmsen
Logistics, Email: lena.blomqvist@2wglobal.com
Lennart Harardson, Wärtsilä, Email: Lennart.Haraldson@wartsila.com
Per Holmström, DEC - Diesel Emission Control, Munters Sweden, Email: per.holmstrom@munters.se
Ronald Nilsson, Fuel Business Development, EON, Email: roland.nilsson@eon.se
Sven Lyngfelt (publishing), Associate professor, Lighthouse, svenl@chalmers.se
Thomas Stenhede, CHP/DE Applications, Manager, Wärtsilä Power Plants
Tori Linbol, Natural Gas Vice president Statoil, Email: torlin@statoil.com
Unni Einemo, Senior Editor, Bunkerworld London, Unni.Einemo@bunkerworld.com
APPENDIX
Figure A - Range of NOx and SO2 projections Range of SO2 projections for the “with climate measures”
projection (thick solid line), the “no further climate measures projection (thin solid line) and the national
energy projections (dashed line), in kt. Note: (in blue - descending) EU 15, (in green - ascending) Sea
regions, (in red) New Members States. Source: IIASA
Table A
Indicative average abatement costs in € for sectors with ‘beyond Indicative average marginal abatement costs for sectors with
BAU’ NOx measures ‘beyond BAU’ SO2 measures
2020 Cost
AcActivity 2010 2020 2010 Cost Curve -
Fuel production and conversion: Curve - marginal
Combustion 3 306 3 362 Sector marginal cost cost
Combustion in residential commercial
sector 8 085 8 034 Fuel production & conversion: Combustion 2 704
Combustion in residential-commercial
Industry: Combustion in boilers 5 588 5 731 sector 2 004 2 004
Industry: other combustion 2 792 3 052 Industry: Combustion in boilers 5 609 6 445
Power and district Heat Plants: Exist 4 343 5 270 Industry: Other combustion 2 139 2 627
Power and district Heat Plants: New 3 378 3 275 Power & district heat plants: Exist. Other 3 838 4 365
Industrial process: Cement Production 839 848 Power & district heat plants: New 8 946 8 659
Industrial process: Coke ovens 1 900 1 900 Industrial. Process: Cement production 8 691 8 691
Industrial process: Lime production 872 881 Industrial. Process: Coke oven 1 144 1 144
Industrial process: Nitric Acid 3 711 3 825 Industrial. Process: Lime production 5 839 5 839
Industrial. Process: Other non-ferrous
Industrial process: other non-ferrous 2 651 2 651 metals prod. - primary and secondary 2 786 2 786
Industrial process: pig iron, blast 3 844 3 844 Industrial. Process: Pig iron, blast furnace 1 083 1 083
Industrial process: petroleum 8 374 8 690 Industrial. Process: Paper pulp mills 1 099 1 099
Industrial process: agglomeration 3 049 3 210 Industrial. Process: Petroleum refineries 1 070 1 070
Industrial. Process: Agglomeration plant -
Other transport: other off-road 44 398 44 398 sinter 941 941
Other transport: rail (exhaust) 17 226 18 033 Industrial. Process: Sulfuric acid 972 990
Light duty vehicles 51 322 56 435 Waste: Agricultural waste burning 686 686
Motorcycle: 4 stroke (exhsust) 142 694 134 335 Waste: Flaring in gas and oil Industry 6 286 6 747
Waste: Agricultural waste burning 444 444 Waste: Open burning of residential waste 1 586 1 586
Other transport: rail (solid fuels), heating
Waste: Flaring in gas and oil industry 3 520 3 520 (stationary combustion) 5 245 5 245
Waste: open burning of residential 879 879 Average for Stationary sources only 3 330 3 443
Average for Stationary sources only 3 387 3 495 Average 3 298 3 406
Average 14 915 14 887 Source: IIASA
Source: IIASA BAU = Business as Usual
28
Table B
SCR -- cost
SCR -- cost per NOx ton HAM -- cost HAM -- cost
per NOx ton SCR -- cost per reduced per tons per tons
Total hours of Annual fuel reduced NOx ton (capex in a 5 reduced reduced
main engine utility consumption (capex in a 5 reduced (capex year spread) (capex in a 5 (capex in a 5
engine per year in in tons – main year spread) in a 5 year € from year spread) year spread) €
power Engine cruising engine € from SCR spread) € from ENTEC € from from ENTEC
vessel type (kW) type speed steaming COMPANY ENTEC NEW RETROFIT ENTEC NEW RETROFIT
car carrier 1 14 710 SSD 7 000 17 067 322 327 378 355 378
car carrier 2 14 480 MSD 5 737 15 040 378 385 462 531 566
car carrier 3 14 480 MSD 5 164 10 830 439 449 556 721 770
car carrier 4 14 480 MSD 6 910 17 050 359 365 434 473 504
Container and
sister ships 7 200 MSD 5 034 7 334 548 406 488 564 601
Cruise 1 36 180 MDS 6 570 35 655 393 370 444 467 548
Cruise 2 72 000 MSD 2 710 31 687 502 558 725 1 011 1 194
General Cargo 3 264 MSD 5 500 3 250 491 510 631 681 681
Passenger 1 25 920 MSD 3 902 19 389 487 436 541 648 763
Passenger 2 50 400 MSD 4 000 34 353 447 449 561 694 818
Passenger 3 36 000 HSD 1 500 9 318 928 876 1 200 1 927 2 284
Passenger 4 36 000 HSD 4 690 30 568 449 433 536 647 761
Product tanker 2 200 HSD 4 250 1 424 753 777 994 727 727
Ro-Ro cargo 1 9 000 MSD 4 970 8 289 556 427 521 638 681
Ro-Ro cargo 2 14 480 MSD 6 415 13 850 385 392 474 553 590
Ro-Ro cargo 3 15 600 MSD 6 753 19 073 353 348 408 391 457
Ro-Ro cargo 4 12 000 MSD 4 830 10 494 402 424 519 641 684
Ro-Ro cargo 5 12 000 MSD 4 830 10 494 402 424 519 641 684
Ro-Ro cargo 6 18 900 MSD 4 440 15 193 445 436 540 642 756
Ro-Ro cargo 7 18 900 MSD 4 440 15 193 445 436 540 642 756
RoRo pax 44 480 MSD 4 200 31 833 446 432 536 644 758
RoRo cargo 8 23 040 MSD 5 400 18 550 433 419 514 596 702
RoRo cargo 9 9 320 MSD 7 784 13 907 432 343 399 396 421
RoRo Pax 2 and
sister ship 48 000 MSD 4 730 38 688 412 414 509 594 698
supply/icebreaker
and sister ships 13 440 MSD 6 132 11 711 427 423 518 643 685
Tanker 1 11 700 MSD 4 800 10 168 416 427 524 651 694
Tanker 2 9 480 SSD 6 500 9 493 427 348 406 406 432
Tanker 3 7 562 SSD 6 500 7 093 414 361 424 434 463
Tanker 4 and
sister ships 4 760 MSD 2 628 2 265 1 124 1 096 1 499 1 461 1 461
Utility 6 960 HSD 4 000 4 863 563 531 669 915 977
Average 20 231 SSD 5 077 17 067 479 467 582 678 750
29
Fuel consumption [ton]= engine output [kW] * specific fuel consumption indicator [ton g/kWh] *
engine time utilization [hours] * average engine utility / 1 000 000
Tradable NOx Emissions with SCR [ton]= IMO NOx baseline [g/kWh] * engine output [kW] * engine
utilization[hours] * engine utility * 0.9 * 0.000001
Tradable SOx emissions [ton]= Annual fuel consumption [ton]* SECA decimal sulphur content
*2*reducing factor
Annual Total Cost of Technology [Euro]= (capital cost/5) + annual operating costs + annual
maintenance costs + monitoring and verification costs [Euro]
Revenue from NOx or Sox [Euro] = 900 or 960 [Euro]* traded volume [ton]
Payback period [years] = Total expenditure in five years [Euro] / Annual revenue [Euro]
Cost per ton [Euro]= Total annual costs [Euro] / traded volume [ton],
Where Total annual costs [Euro]= 1/5 * Capital expenditure [Euro] + annual maintenance [Euro] +
annual operational costs [Euro]+ monitoring and verification costs for the traded volumes [Euro]
And traded volume [ton] = reductions below the SECA baseline [ton]
ROI=100*((NOx net benefits * NOx ratio)+(SOx net benefits * SOx ratio)) [Euro] /cost per ton reduced
[Euro],
Where ratio is the ratio of the traded volumes between NOx and SOx for every technology
Annual fuel costs [Euro] = average price of fuel [Euro per ton or kWh]* annual fuel consumption [per
ton or kWh]
SMA port discounts for regular service [Euro] =factor * gross tonnage *2*12/ Exchange rate
0-0,2 0 0