SUDAN

- Africa’s largest country

- 39.3M population
- 57 ethnic groups
- 70% Muslim
STATE DEPARTMENT POLICY
(SOUTHERN SUDAN) OIL
- 20-25% Traditional
- Should be main effort for AFRICOM
- Efforts should support a united Sudan
IRAN
- 10% Christian - Transform SPLA to deter Northern agression
- ~ 400 languages - Accelerate reconstruction and development
- Owes its existence as 1 unit to colonialism - Goods and services to the SPLA (PD-22)
? Independent in 1956 - Top Three: Capabilities, Weapons Systems, Personnel
? Arab tribes in North well prepared
? African tribes in south not well prepared
? Involuntary N-S merging
- 1st Civil War 1956 - 1972 (16), ended when South
given autonomy and own government
- Oil discovered 1979 (production 1999)
- 2nd Civil War 1983 - 2005 (22) President Obama ICC CT
?
?
2M dead
4M IDPs V.P. Biden
CO
- CPA (Jan 2005) 20
OP
- Darfur 2003 - Present (5+) UN - Dr. Susan Rice 08 ER 40 CHINA

N
- Independant for 52 years (conflict for 43+) 10 AT

IO
- 92.6% export revenue from oil (feeds North’s growth) Secretary of State Clinton IN IO (CNPC)

AT
DI
CT N (SINOPEC)

ER
John Prendergast
ME /“

OP
WATER Samantha Powers NT O INDIA

Th
S UR

CO
LIBYA (ONGC

rea
FO
TO BELARUS
R 84bcm/yr

l
t en

ED

oi
W VIDESH)

s
n’
MOLDOVA AR P

ed
OIL

da
AS
PR 85% BLUE

Su
CR

Wa

RE

of
IM IO 14% WHITE

%
80
r in

INC
E RI

-
S

65
/C TY PAKISTAN

1970

ou t o r /
WEAPONS RI RUSSIA

s
rce
ME IS

n o i nv e
S

st
S

il s
FRANCE AG

ge
la r
AI

eig
U
REFUGEES

’s
NS

an

for
D
SUDAN

ud
T

st
-S
HU

ge
N

lar
PC
”
MA

4th
CN
CPA NI UKRAINE

’s
l/
TY

ina
Oi
Ch
/G

’s
ina
EN

Ch
SWEDEN/ OC

of
CONFLICT/TENSION

7%
SWITZ. ID
E ENERGY CORRIDOR
HERITAGE

(PERSIAN GULF OIL)

2 – Lack of Development - 3.3 Million Barrels per day
ISLAMIZATION - Forced Islam and Shari’a
ERITREAN - 4% of Global Daily Consumption
- Arabization of Education
- Confiscation of Customary Lands
ISLA
MIC
– L UO

- Lack of Representation in Government JIH

- Lack of Resource Compensation AD SIRIUS STAR
OIL FIELD

EI
- Discrimination M/V FAINA

TH
- Liberian Flagged
TRIB

IO
- Saudi ARAMCO
SE
N - Ukranian Owned

PI
AT CHAD - 2M Barrels / $100M - Belize Flagged

AN
E 44 - 2.3% of Global Daily Consumption
E

- Destined for Mobassa, Kenya Port

PIRACY RE

IS
SO

L
4

AM
LU
TI
ERITREA

IC
# 2008 FSI RANKING ON GoS (NCP)

JI
55

HA
9– UNAMID

D
NA
OIL

BILAT AGREEMENT
FSI INDICATORS OF INSTABILITY TO
NO REFUGEES/IDPs
F LY
- Demographic pressures
KUWAIT
- Refugees and displaced persons
- Group grievance CPA

CPA
- Human flight
- Uneven development
- Economy
- Delegitimization of State
U.S

- Public services
POWER WEALTH
- Human rights SECURITY SHARING SHARING
REFUGEES/IDPs
- Security apparatus
.O

GONU

NT
- Factionalized elites

O
CPA MILESTONES
IL I

- External intervention

FR
(Temporary Arrangement)
UNMIS SAUDI
NT

N
- Detailed Provisions For Oil Management (Poorly Implimented) CPA
ER ETHIOPIA
- National Census (Power Sharing Based on Census Results) T ARABIA
ER

BILAT AGREEMENT
EA
- National/Regional Elections (NLT July ‘09)

CPA
- Referendum on Self-Determination (2011)
ES

- Abyei Special Administrative Status OR

F
- “Popular Consultation” (Blue Nile and South Kordofan) T
TS

O R
CAR P P
SU 16
10 GoSS (SPLM/A)

IA
UAE

AL
VISA ISS

M
U ES

SO
A F RICAN FAR LU
O

A CK ME M
I 1
RS

G
L

RA
B

TI
OMADIC

ON
G N
K IN P A YEMEN
EA E ND AN T POL S
P F DEP ITIC
AL T NILE
S O
ON
CO
(WHITE)
O

I NS
C

AT
RA

(BLUE)
BI

TI
E
CR

TU

“GATEKEEPER STATE” 26
LIS
A

U.S OIL
E
S-
AR

NC

DROC INDONESIA
CE

TS
IES

COMPANIES
TER / RESOUR

Centralized Arabic Islamist Regime (NIF)

/ DIVIDE AND RUL

6
Poor 16 KENYA
Resources
Governance MALAYSIA
N

UGANDA EGYPT - 48bcm/yr

CE

(PETRONAS) SUDAN - 46bcm/yr

F

E
O

TO

Economic
E

NIGERIA
C

C
AN

Dysfunction
N

IN TR
M OL
D O
IC ER P Basin Population
Population
N O M IPH
ECO RY E
• Ten Riparian States Eritea
– Egypt
Burundi
1% Egypt
– Sudan 2%
22%
– Ethiopia Congo

CAMEROON EGYPT - 55.5bcm/yr –

–
Uganda
Rwanda
16%
Kenya
– Tanzania
SUDAN - 18.5bcm/yr –
–
Kenya
D.R. Congo
9%

– Eritrea Sudan
S. AFRICA – Burundi Tanzania
10%
11%

BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION Rwanda

IRRIGATION - Egypt’s “Historic Rights”

2%
Uganda
Ethiopia
20%
7%
- Recognized no other