Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
“We, African Ministers responsible for Energy, and ensuring adequate levels of generation capacity;
European Union (EU) Ministers responsible for Africa-EU
• doubling the use of natural gas in Africa, as well as
energy relations resolve to work within the AEEP to attain
doubling African gas exports to Europe, by building
the following targets, in the timeframe up to 2020:
natural gas infrastructure, notably to bring currently
flared gas to market.
Energy Access
As a contribution to the African objective of achieving a Renewable Energy and Energy
continent-wide rate of access to modern and sustainable
energy of around 50%, Africa and the EU will take joint Efficiency
action to: Africa and the EU will take joint action to increase both
energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in
• bring access to modern and sustainable energy services Africa by:
to at least an additional 100 million Africans, focusing
on sustainable models: to provide energy for basic • building 10,000MW of new hydropower facilities, taking
services (health, education, water, communication); to into consideration social and environmental
power productive activities; and to provide safe and standards;
sustainable energy services to households. • building at least 5,000MW of wind power capacity;
Africa and the EU will take joint action to improve energy • tripling the capacity of other renewables, such as
security by: geothermal, and modern biomass; and
• doubling the capacity of cross-border electricity • improving energy efficiency in Africa in all sectors,
interconnections, both within Africa and between Africa starting with the electricity sector, in support of Africa's
and Europe, thus increasing trade in electricity while continental, regional and sectoral targets.”
Steering Group
4 | AEEP
Contents
Tracking developments in the African energy sector 10 Solar power grows strongly 34
Abbreviations Definitions
bcm billion cubic metres km kilometre Hydropower includes micro-hydro and pumped storage
bn billion kV kilovolt projects unless otherwise stated.
C02e C02 equivalent kW kilowatt Biomass for electricity generation (rather than, cooking)
covers the burning of organic matter . This category of
CSP concentrated solar m million
power
‘Other Renewables’ includes waste-to-power projects.
MJ/$ million joules/dollar
GJ gigajoule Solar is utilised as a semantic covering any form of
MW megawatt electricity generation which uses the sun as its sole
GW gigawatt (MW1,000) energy source unless further specified.
PV photovoltaic
h hour (as in GWh)
tcf trillion cubic feet Thermal covers fossil fuels such as petroleum products
HEP hydroelectric power and coal when used for electricity.
t/yr tonnes a year
AEEP | 5
Introduction
6 | AEEP
Key Findings
Progress despite frustrations how cooperation can be further intensified and project
implementation and coordination enhanced to help
The world in which the Africa-EU Energy Partnership
(AEEP) functions is changing, with many more actors improve the lives of many millions in Africa and Europe.
becoming involved in the electricity sector. The AEEP has The report recognises that much remains to be done in
contributed to pushing energy to the top of the Africa-EU compiling the data necessary to inform these decisions. In
agenda and has helped to shape global initiatives such as a transitional period for data-gathering on African energy
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All). Its remit remains to sectors, AEEP stakeholders – many of them now also
provide a framework in which policies and projects – the involved in complementary initiatives, such as SE4All and
African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), among others – its Global Tracking Framework (GTF) – are committed to
can be implemented with high levels of delivery and making up the information gap to obtain accurate data on
stakeholder buy-in. It will push ahead on this agenda with African access, energy efficiency and other indicators.
the AEEP’s Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan.
This Status Report Update builds on previous work to give Renewable generation is growing
an overview of progress towards meeting the AEEP’s 2020 Renewable energy (RE) generation capacity has been
Political Targets – using the AEEP Monitoring Tool and its increasing, as shown in the graphic below, which is based
ground-breaking Africa Power Projects Database. The on analysis and estimates drawn from the AEEP Power
report should also provide a platform for discussion of Project Database. The data for generation plants in
0
25 2010 2015 2020
15 1
0
2010 2015 2020
10
AEEP | 7
Key Findings
operation and planned for completion in the period to this represents an increase from an average of 14.4m
2020 suggest that in some sectors – such as the people gaining access to electricity each year between
installation of solar capacity – developments have largely 2000 and 2010, to 28.9m in 2010-12. If this annual
surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which were increase can be sustained, Africa is likely to achieve the
agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry was AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020. Meanwhile, only
at a very different stage of development. 32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking fuel in
2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up from
Hydroelectric power 31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990.
Hydroelectric power (HEP) remains the dominant RE
technology supplying African grids. Between 2010 and Energy efficiency
2015, 2,174MW of HEP capacity was added. Further, Energy intensity – calculated as units of energy per unit of
rehabilitation work has been undertaken at a large GDP – is a measurable (if imperfect) indicator of energy
number of dilapidated facilities, improving performance efficiency. World Bank/SE4All data suggests that Africa
and reliability. While large HEP projects dominate the AEEP experienced a decrease in average final energy intensity of
Power Project Database, smaller projects can have a very 20% (or an average 2.9% per year) in 2000-12. Network
big impact in providing energy for isolated communities. losses remain a problem across Africa, but are exhibiting a
stable trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and
Solar capacity exceeds projections 2012 (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change in 2010-12.
Solar capacity started at a very low level, but has enjoyed
exponential success. The AEEP’s Political Target of adding Energy security reinforces connections
500MW more generation capacity by 2020 was met only The slow pace of Programme for Infrastructure
four years after the 2010 baseline was set – and is Development in Africa (PIDA) projects and other cross-
expected to have been met four times over by the end of border schemes have slowed increases to electricity
2016. Installed capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW, transfer capacity; the database shows no new operating
compared with 103MW in 2010. lines completed since 2011. But recent progress on
regional transmission projects suggests that, with
Wind power improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling
Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been added, capacity by 2020 could be met. Among other energy
more than doubling the 2010 capacity of 1,120MW. security targets, gas consumption in Africa plateaued in
Analysis of the project pipeline suggests the AEEP Political 2012-14, due to political and economic challenges that
Target of adding 5,000MW by 2020 can be met, if 43% of have also had an impact on gas exports to Europe, which
the planned projects are completed on time. fell to 46bcm in 2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006.
8 | AEEP
Key Findings
e
Nouadhibou
Nil
Atar Port geothermal, nuclear)
Sudan
MA U R I T A N I A
CAPE NOUAKCHOTT Arlit
VERDE BANDA MALI Power line
NIGER Atbara
GREATER Timbuktu
Gao Agadez SUDAN
TORTUE Néma ERITREA
Ni
St-Louis 41 Kassala
CHAD
ge
PRAIA Massawa
r
Bl u
BAMAKO Kano Maiduguri N’DJAMENA DJIBOUTI
BISSAU Bobo OUAGADOUGOU Renk
eN
Dioulasso Dese DJIBOUTI
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA NIGERIA Maroua
ile
BENIN 4 VILLE Bosaso
le
Dire
Ch
Ni
Tamale e 45 35 Dawa Berbera
57
ari
CONAKRY
TOGO ABUJA Sarh it Hargeisa
Wh
u
e
IA
SUDAN 42 CALUB,
Te
Om
HILALA
AL
Africa’s largest
PO V
a
Harcourt BANGUI
NO É
LO RA
Ab
RT O
JUBA
M
San-Pedro Negele
power projects Douala
AC
id
O-
M
U l
SO
47 YAOUNDÉ
ja
FOXTROT,
C
5
n
Congo
A
J A
Juba
D
in PIDA’s Priority Action Plan S. TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Kisangani Bunia KAMPALA
•• K E N Y TA
KU
LE)
AZZ O N
LIBREVILLE
1 Grand Inga 39.0 SÃO TOMÉ Mbandaka
L. Edward Kisumu
(BR O F C
an
2 Thyspunt or Duynefontein
Port-Gentil GABON Mbarara Kismayo
a
••
REP
LEOPARD
3 REIPPP Rounds 1-4 6.3 M’BOUNDI BRAZZAVILLE
Bandundu C O N G O Bukavu
BUJUMBURA SEYCHELLES
4 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Pointe-Noire KINSHASA BURUNDI Arusha Mombasa
LITCHENDJILI Kigoma Lake Pemba I. VICTORIA
Dam (GERD)
Lualaba
6.0 1 9 63
••
OFFSHORE CABINDA Kananga Tanganyika Tanga
Matadi Zanzibar I.
5 Upper White Nile 5.0 Kalemie DODOMA
••
LOWER CONGO BASIN Soyo
Mbuji- TA N Z A N I A Dar es Salaam
Kasa
10
9
••
Inga III
Kusile
4.8
4.8
41
42
•• Solar Euromed
Gilgel Gibe IV
2.0
2.0
LONTRA
Sumbe ANGOLA Kolwezi
Lubumbashi
64
Mtwara
Songea
OFFSHORE RUVUMA/
ROVUMA BASIN
COMOROS
•• ••
Kuito Lake Malawi Antsiranana
Benguela Luena MALAWI (Lake Nyasa) MORONI
11 Medupi 4.8 43 Helwan South 2.0 Huambo Ndola LILONGWE Lichinga Mayotte
Pemba
12 New Capital 4.8 44 Hendrina 2.0 ZA M BI A
•• ••
Menongue (Fr.)
Cun ene
Namibe Nacala
13 FiT Rd.1 wind & solar 4.3 45 Mandaya 2.0 Mongu
LUSAKA Blantyre Mahajanga
Cu
36
14 Kendal 4.1 46 Safaga 2.0 Zambezi 61 52
•• ••
ba
E
ngo
Rundu 55 Quelimane
16 Matimba 4.0 48 Gilgel Gibe III 1.9
•• ••
BI
Hwange Toamasina
Maun ZIMBABWE
ANTANANARIVO
AM
•• ••
LOUIS
MOZ
Francistown Bulawayo
19 Duvha 3.6 51 Mmamantswe 1.8 N A M I BI A Ghanzi TEMANE
p
Selebi-Phikwe Lim opo Réunion
20 Matla 3.6 52 Ncondezi 1.8
•• ••
Walvis (Fr.)
Bay BOTSWANA 11PRETORIA Toliara
21 Lekki 3.7 53 Cairo West 1.7 WINDHOEK 51 16 Inhambane
22 Mambilla 3.1 54 Tams 1.7
•• ••
GABORONE
Tolanaro
¨
23 El Hamrawein 3.0 55 Batoka Gorge 1.6 Johannesburg MAPUTO
Keetmanshoop Secunda
24 Kriel 3.0 56 Caculo Cabaça 1.6
•• •• Lüderitz Sasolburg
MBABANE (Mpumalanga)
SWAZILAND
25 Ogorode 2.8 57 Karadobi 1.6 O ra al 10 14 15 17 18 19 20 24 33 44 59
n ge
Va
KUDU Kimberley 68
26 Ain Moussa I & II 2.6 58 Cairo North 1.5
•• ••
Richards Bay
Alexander Pietermaritzburg
27 El Hamrawein 2.4 59 Camden 1.5 Bay Bloemfontein Durban
IBHUBESI M ASE
28 Sengwa (Gokwe N.) 2.4 60 Giza North II & III 1.5 SOUTH RU
29
30 Dairut
••
Beni Suef IPP 2.3
2.3
61
62
•• Mphanda Nkuwa 1.5
Al-Khalij 2 1.4
AFRICA
LESOTHO
•• ••
3
66 East London
31 Nubaria I-III 2.3 63 Inga II 1.4 50 Mossel
Cape Town Bay Port Elizabeth
32 TuNur solar 2.3 64 Luapula River 1.4
33
34
Arnot
Aswan High
•• 2.1
2.1
65
66
•• Jorf Lasfar
Ankerlig
1.4
1.3
2
BREDASDORP
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics
35
36
Beko Abo
Cahora Bassa
•• 2.1
2.1
67
68
•• Egbin
Ingula PS
1.3
1.3
FiT: Feed-in Tariff
REIPPP: Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement
37
38
Lauça
••
Stiegler’s Gorge
2.1
2.1
69
70
•• Nador
Safi
1.3
1.3
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database;
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
AEEP | 9
Baseline Data
10 | AEEP
Baseline Data
AEEP | 11
Baseline Data
Tracking energy security indicators have only limited responsiveness to policy reforms and
new initiatives. In energy efficiency, SE4All data on
Within the AEEP’s energy security remit, information on
network losses is implausibly volatile. In the case of the
pipeline and LNG natural gas exports from Africa to Europe
statistics for Botswana, the dataset estimates a low of
and the consumption of natural gas is contained in the
11.1% in 2001 but a high of 158% in 2012. Similarly, for
annual Statistical Review of World Energy, published by BP
Togo the figures fluctuate between 40.1% and 129%.
plc. This report is well respected internationally and has
Clearly there are serious questions to be asked about the
been published since 1951, providing an unrivalled
dataset.
dataset.
Constrained resources at national statistical offices,
These data sources together form the AEEP Monitoring
coupled with very widely dispersed populations,
Tool, which tracks progress towards the AEEP 2020
communications and transport infrastructure restrictions,
political targets.
limited state presence in some locations, large informal
economies and the ubiquitous use of diesel generators,
Overcoming information gaps… the poor condition of much existing infrastructure, all
In many areas, progress will understandably take time, contribute to a high degree of uncertainty and
given the need to develop the capacity and independence complication in data production and analysis.
of national statistical offices and to undertake large-scale,
very detailed surveys. In many countries, household …needs a lot of resources
surveys to gain a much deeper picture of energy use are
Reporting by national utilities and governments has often
only just beginning. Data gaps thus remain.
left much to be desired when it comes to providing up-to-
The absence of up-to-date energy access statistics means date, comprehensive and publicly available statistics. But
that analysts are reliant on estimates for data, which can there has been some improvement as energy regulators
Energy Security
Double the use of natural gas in Africa 108bcm 216bcm Missed on current trend
Double African gas exports to Europe 79bcm 158bcm Current trend is negative
Renewable Energy
Energy Access
Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 336m 436m Missed by 10m on trend since 2010
12 | AEEP
Baseline Data
Given limited options, this report uses the best of the data
available to produce estimates of trends and quantities, in
the case of several key indicators following unique
research work carried out for the AEEP.
Double the use of natural gas in Africa (bcm)* 164 146 143 na na na
Renewable Energy
Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) n/a n/a 2,054MW 1,995MW 2,487MW 2,978MW
Energy Efficiency
Energy Access
Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 649m, 2010-2012 – 743m na na na
AEEP | 13
Baseline Monitoring
Policy Environment
14 | AEEP
Energy Access
1,500
access remains an elusive goal. While many countries have
Millions made a concerted effort to improve levels of rural
1,324
1,250 electrification and other forms of access, the impacts of
Africa’s 1,086 insufficient resources and growing populations are still
1,000 population reflected in disappointing access indicators.
806
750 743 Further, while statistics – and basic observation – show
Access to
that much of SSA is confronted with major shortfalls of
516 AEEP 2020 target: 558
500 electricity access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, there is much
AEEP 2020 target: 436
314 354
426 to do before sufficiently accurate data is available to help
250
257 Access to non-solid improve the situation. Within the SE4All framework, the
cooking fuels projections
0
Global Tracking Framework (GTF) has been established to
2000 10 12 20
counter this shortfall, with a Steering Group led jointly by
the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance
African governments and the European Union recognise Programme (ESMAP) and the International Energy Agency
that access to sustainable energy is the basis of every (IEA).
modern economy, without which it is impossible to raise
living standards or drive inclusive economic growth. As much remains to be done to compile accurate statistics
well as increasing productivity and the possibilities for until the GTF datasets are ready to provide a definitive
entrepreneurship, access to electricity creates safer, well-lit picture of access in SSA. With some reason, critics argue
streets, saves time in the home and allows food to be that the statistics as currently available may even serve to
stored for longer. Electricity provides the foundation for obscure the challenges, rather than enlighten strategies to
modern healthcare, the media and digital world. In Africa, overcome them. Indeed, as the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report
as in so many emerging economies, access to clean observed, debate continues over the definition of access.
cooking fuels is integral to improving living standards.
Reliance on solid fuel for cooking, such as charcoal, has These issues are discussed by the AEEP’s Energy Access
well-documented adverse effects on health, together with Work Stream. NGO Practical Action (whose Senior Policy
often unsustainable and damaging production methods. Advisor Lucy Stevens is AEEP Focal Point for Civil Society in
Europe), has argued that new ways of defining and
Securing access to secure, affordable, clean and
measuring energy access are crucial if the SDG target is to
sustainable energy services is one of three main areas for
result in poverty reduction and development benefits. To
action under the Agenda for Change driving the EU’s
achieve this means going beyond the conventional binary
energy development policy. The African Union and EU see
that providing support for the United Nations’ Sustainable definitions of energy access such as household electricity
Energy for All (SE4All) initiative – which aims to pull 1bn connections and cooking with non-solid or solid fuels.
out of energy poverty by 2030, some 500m of them in Sub- The GTF is adopting an innovative, ‘multi-tier’ approach to
Saharan Africa (SSA) – is an important means of defining access, able to measure progress in achieving
coordinating activity in this critical area.
good-quality, affordable, safe and reliable energy services.
African governments, the EU and other international While the statistics presented below may sometimes only
actors are firmly focused on achieving a radical overhaul of represent a ‘best guess’ as to the current situation, it
this situation. Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development makes sense to work with the GTF data accumulated so far
Goals (SDGs), unveiled by the UN in September 2015 as a during the interim period covered by this Status Report
baseline for harmonising global action to overcome Update. Given the paucity of other available data – and
poverty, provides a commitment to “ensure access to the GTF’s potential for providing a more rigorous baseline
affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” – in the period to 2030 – the SE4All data set seems the most
underpinning SE4All’s promise of universal access by 2030.
appropriate for use in this report, in the understanding
However, data compiled for SE4All and research by the that this source will produce a more refined appreciation
AEEP and other agencies suggest that universal energy of SSA’s multiple problems of access in coming years.
AEEP | 15
BaselineAccess
Energy Monitoring
The SE4All statistics published to date show an If this annual increase can be sustained , then Africa is
improvement in electricity access. This as investment in likely to achieve the AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020.
Percent of population
with access to electricity/
non-solid cooking fuels, 2012
70.0 – 100%
50.0 – 69.9%
30.0 – 49.9%
15.0 – 29.9%
Less than 15%
16 | AEEP
Energy Access
e
Ni l
70.6% M A U RI T A NI A
68.7% 21.8% 42.0%
MALI NIGER
25.6% 2.0% SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL 14.4% 3.2% CHAD 32.6% 27.9%
56.5% 39.3% West Africa 6.4% 4.8%
36.1% 36.1%
Ni
THE GAMBIA
White N ile
ge
L. Chad DJIBOUTI
r
B lu
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA Ni
NIGERIA
e
60.6% 2.0% le
Volta
Black
55.6% 24.8%
ar
(Ang.) T AN ZAN IA
15.3% 4.2%
Kasa
Mafia I.
Gt. Ruaha
Cu a L. Mweru
nz a COMOROS
ANGOLA 69.3% 25.5%
MALAWI
37.0% 44.3% 9.8% L.Malawi
(L.Nyasa)
3.1%
ZAMBIA Mayotte
(Fr.)
Cunene
22.1% 17.3%
Access to
Cu
Kafue zi
ba
non-solid be MAURITIUS
ngo
m
MO ZAMBIQ UE 100%
Za
Southern
Africa
SWAZILAND
al 42.0% 38.4%
O ra
n ge
Va
SOUTH LESOTHO
20.6% 38.0%
AFRICA
85.4% 86.7%
AEEP | 17
Energy Access
Rural-urban divide
Stark differences persist between levels of rural and urban
access. In 2012, 26.3% of people in rural areas had access
to electricity in the average African country, according to
SE4All/GTF. This had risen from 23.8% in 2010, 18.6% in
2000 and 14.6% in 1990. Excluding North Africa and South
Africa, the 2012 figure is just 17.8%. In contrast, 69.9% of
the urban population in the average African country had
access to electricity in 2012, up from 63.7% in 2010, 59.5%
in 2000 and 58% in 1990.
The implications go beyond the negative effects of solid This could potentially slow progress towards meeting
cooking fuel use. There appears to be a substantial gap continental targets. However, this trend will be mitigated,
between the use of clean cooking fuels and access to to some extent, by the expected large relative increase in
electricity, implying that many households with access to the size of the urban population to 2020, compared with
power continue to use ‘dirty fuels’ for cooking. This the rural population. Further analysis of these dynamics
suggests that issues around the reliability and would be beneficial for identifying initiatives which will
affordability of electricity, the cost of household make the maximum impact towards meeting continental
appliances, and education about the risks of using solid targets while also revealing constituencies that could be
cooking fuel continue to be problematic. left behind.
18 | AEEP
Energy Access
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Central Africa Central Africa
200 2000: 200 2000:
m 23.8% m 14.7%
150 150
109 116 109 116
100 81 100 81
60 60
38 45
50 2012: 50 22 25 2012:
13 19 12
38.7% 3 21.5%
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
East Africa East Africa
350 329 350 329
m 311 m 311
300 300
2000: 2000:
250 234 14.3% 250 234 8.0%
200 176 200 176
150 150
2012: 2012:
100 74 23.2% 100 8.7%
63
50 33 50 26 28
20 10 18
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Southern Africa Southern Africa
200 2000: 200 2000:
m 154 37.1% m 154 38.4%
147 147
150 150
119 119
95 95
100 73 100
65 64 68
44 46
50 33 2012: 50 28 2012:
47.1% 44.0%
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
AEEP | 19
Energy Access
20 | AEEP
Energy Security
The AEEP’s targets are based on the assumption that a The AEEP’s focus on gas and renewables – which has
united Europe is well-placed to facilitate the promotion of gathered pace since the 2010 baseline was established –
cross-border energy in and with Africa. This reinforces the allows a practical option for the diversification of energy
energy security of both Africa and Europe. International sectors This reduces exposure to fluctuating oil prices and
co-operation is essential to safeguard energy supplies. dependence on high carbon-content fossil fuels, such as
Vast distances between sources of generation and their coal, diesel and heavy fuel oil; in some cases it can lower
feedstocks and areas of electricity demand have led to an the cost of generation. Diversification helps to combat an
increase in the number of regional interconnections in over-reliance on a single energy source. Many African
development; these projects promise improved economies countries with an over-dependence on hydroelectricity
of scale, cheaper electricity and energy supply to those suffer severe power shortages during times of drought,
countries with limited natural resources. which are becoming ever more severe as regions of East
and West Africa struggle with desertification. These
Integration is strongly encouraged by the Programme for pressures may lead hard-pressed governments to procure
Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). However, the costly – and often polluting – liquid fuel-fed rental power.
slow pace of implementation for PIDA projects and other
As the charts below show, based on data from the AEEP
cross-border schemes have slowed the trend of increases
Power Project Database, changes can be observed since
to electricity transfer , which was notable in the AEEP’s
2010, as both hydroelectricity and coal account for lower
2014 Status Report. The database shows no new operating
percentages of the energy mix in 2015, while gas-fired
lines completed since 2011, but recent progress on capacity has increased to over 40% of the total, and wind
regional transmission projects suggests that, with and solar have increased almost three-fold. However,
improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling natural gas remains vastly under-utilised as a source of
capacity by 2020 could be met. fuel in most African economies.
Among other energy security targets, data collected by the Greater regional integration is under way – with notable
AEEP Monitoring Tool shows that gas consumption in progress in the West Africa Power Pool, Southern Africa
Africa plateaued in 2012-14, following an almost two-fold Power Pool and East African regions – which will help
increase in the decade before. This was due to political and countries to access a wider range of sources of generation.
economic challenges that have also had an impact on This will help them to diversify their energy mix and trade
natural gas exports to Europe, which fell to 46bcm in electricity to balance system costs, which is crucial to
2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006. reinforcing the supply of sustainable, affordable power.
a
bl
bl
es
Source: AEEP Power Project Database Source: AEEP Power Project Database
AEEP | 21
Energy Security
ALGERIA
LIBYA
EGYPT
Western
Sahara
(under UN
mandate)
Nigeria-Algeria
(NIGAL) gas pipeline
CAPE
VERDE M AURIT ANIA
MALI
NIGER SUDAN
ERITREA
SENEGAL GOURBASSI CHAD
HEP
THE GAMBIA
Sambangalou HEP BURKINA
FASO Grand Ethiopian DJIBOUTI
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA FOMI
HEP Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Kaléta HEP BUMBUNA 3 BENIN NIGERIA
HEP
CÔTE GHANA ETHIOPIA
SIERRA LEONE SOUTH
D’IVOIRE LOM CENTRAL
IA
PANGAR SUD AN GILGEL GIBE III HEP
HEP
AFRICAN REPUBLIC GILGEL GIBE IV HEP
AL
LIBERIA SOUBRÉ
HEP TOGO
M
West African Power CAMEROON
SO
Transmission Corridor
EQUATORIAL GUINEA MEMVÉ’ÉLÉ
HEP Uganda-Kenya Petroleum UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Products Pipeline KENYA
A VI N G O
D EMOCR ATIC
)
LLE
GABON R EPUBLIC OF
AZZ C O
CONGO RWANDA
(BR . O F
SEYCHELLES
RUZIZI IV HEP BURUNDI
OPTIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF INGA
Cabinda (Ang.) TANZANIA–KENYA GAS PIPELINE
Inga III HEP TANZANIA
STIEGLER’S GORGE HEP
North-South Power
Transmission Corridor
ANGOLA COMOROS
Central African MALAWI
Interconnection Mayotte
ZAMBIA CAHORA BASSA (Fr.)
NORTE HEP
Batoka
Gorge HEP Mphanda Nkuwa HEP
Power pools: MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR
Maghreb Electricity Committee (Comelec) MAURITIUS
West African Power Pool (WAPP) NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA Réunion
(Fr.)
Central African Power Pool (CAPP)
Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) MOZAMBIQUE–
SOUTH AFRICA OIL PIPELINE
Former member of EAPP (Egypt: withdrew in Feb 2016) SWAZILAND
Potential members of EAPP (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan)
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) LESOTHO
Unaffiliated country SOUTH Lesotho Highlands HEP
AFRICA
Angola is a member of CAPP and SAPP
Power line
Burundi is a member of CAPP and EAPP
Energy projects in PIDA-PAP 2020 (Programme for Democratic Republic of Congo is a
Infrastructure Development in Africa Priority Action Plan) member of CAPP, EAPP and SAPP
Energy projects in PIDA 2040 Libya is a member of Comelec and EAPP
Rwanda is a member of EAPP and a
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; African Energy Atlas; applicant member of CAPP
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Tanzania is a member of EAPP and SAPP
22 | AEEP
Energy Security
AEEP | 23
Energy Security
<50 4
51-100 3
101-150 9
151-200 2
201-300 16
301-400* 16
>400 2
24 | AEEP
Energy Security
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
AEEP | 25
Energy Security
ly TT /
EI
Ita A D
GL1-Z & GL2-Z operating
to O M ME
C S
Gassi Touil LNG:
RI N
EN TRA
GL3-Z operating GALSI
MEDGAZ to Italy EGYPT
2 Skikda LNG: to Spain
GL1-K & GL2-K operating Declining gas production has led to Egypt
LNG EXPORTS
ly AM
GPDF/GME 2 becoming an importer of LNG, but a recovery
ON HOLD
Ita RE
to Spain, Portugal El Haouaria is expected in the coming years following a
1
to NST
Skikda Tunis
Tahaddart resumption of developments and the giant
EE
Offtake at Tahaddart power plant
Arzew TUNISIA
GR
Beni Saf
GULF OF
30tcf Zohr discovery.
GABÈS ZOHR
FUTURE LNG NILE
Jorf Lasfar HASSI to Ashkelon, Israel
IMPORTS R’MEL BERKINE Mellitah Benghazi DELTA
MOROCCO BASIN ELNG SEGAS No exports from SEGAS since 2012,
Idku El Arish
Marsa Da
m iett a greatly reduced exports from ELNG
LIBYA Al-Brega
AGP to Jordan, Syria, Turkey
ALGERIA GHADAMES
WESTERN Ain Taba
BASIN Closed
ILLIZI SIRTE DESERT Sokhna FSRU
2011,
SAHARA BASIN BASIN Zeit LNG
FIELDS
upgrade EGYPT Bay
required IMPORTS
MAURITANIA Western UPPER EGYPT
GAS PIPELINE
Gas from the Sahara
(under UN
Banda gas field mandate) ABBREVIATIONS Aswan
is to be used for AGP: Arab Gas Pipeline
NIGERIA–ALGERIA
a domestic (NIGAL) PIPELINE ALNG: Angola LNG
power plant. EGLNG: Equatorial Guinea LNG SUDAN
M AURIT ANIA ELNG: Egyptian LNG
CAPE ELPS: Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System
VERDE BANDA FID: final investment decision
MALI
GREATER NIGER FLNG: floating LNG SUDAN
TORTUE FSRU: floating storage & regasification unit ERITREA
GALSI:
CHAD Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna Italia
SENEGAL GME: Gazoduc Maghreb Europe
THE GAMBIA GPDF: Gazoduc Pedro Duran Farrell
FUTURE LNG
BURKINA MZLNG: Mozambique LNG DJIBOUTI EXPORTS
FASO NLNG: Nigeria LNG Djibouti Ville
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
GHANA BENIN NIGERIA SEGAS: Spanish-Egyptian Gas Company
TOGO WAGP: West African Gas Pipeline
SIERRA CÔTE SOMALIA
Co Lo a
LEONE D’IVOIRE
ETHIOPIA
to m
La u
CENTRAL
Ab
go
ELPS CALUB,
Té ze
LIBERIA SUD AN
oa
Jacqueville, Grand-Bassam
m
EQUAT.GUINEA Lolabé
Mtwara to Dar es Salaam is
L
UGANDA
N, , E
project on hold
TE DU
ST & P KENYA
KU
RWANDA
six trains operating, awaiting LEOPARD R EPUBLIC OF FUTURE LNG
REP
NAMIBIA
BI
26 | AEEP
Energy Security
Supported by world-scale natural gas reserves, North Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to other continents are
Africa has established itself as a major exporter of gas to making slow progress. Angola’s new LNG export terminal
Europe, through liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes and has never reached its expected production levels; it shut
four gas pipelines connecting Libya and Tunisia to Italy via down due to technical failure in 2014, only a year after its
Greenstream and Transmed respectively, and Algeria and first exports to Brazil, but was expected to reopen as this
Morocco to Spain and Portugal through Medgaz and Status Report Update went to press. Angola, Nigeria and
GPDF/GME (as shown in the map on page 26). Nigeria has other exporters into the Atlantic Basin and other gas
markets have been affected by price volatility and intense
also emerged as a significant exporter through the six-
competition, notably from the production of gas from
train Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) company.
shales in North America.
African exports to Europe reached a peak in 2006 at
International companies are looking hard at major
84.9bcm, but have since been on the decline. According to
discoveries and export potential in Tanzania and
the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, total Mozambique. It is calculated that Mozambique has
exports fell to just 46bcm in 2014. LNG exports to Europe sufficient reserves to become the world’s largest supplier
have been in gradual decline since 2006, reaching a low of of LNG after Australia and Qatar, with a start to
20.5bcm in 2014, aggravated by the collapse in Egyptian production expected in the early 2020s. The negative
LNG exports from 2011. Pipeline exports also slumped implications of prevailing low oil prices, which still feed
during the period, to just 25.5bcm in 2014, with conflict in into gas pricing, may slow projects, but the growth in spot
Libya halting exports through Greenstream. sales of LNG suggests new markets will emerge.
20.5
30 By pipeline 30
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
AEEP | 27
Baseline Monitoring
Renewable Energy
Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015, 60 75% scenario: 55.30
GW 50% scenario: 48.63
and AEEP 2020 targets
40 AEEP target: 43.01
Linear trend: 37.36
45 25% scenario: 41.97
43.01
Hydroelectric 20
GW power
0
40 2010 2015 2020
0
2010 2015 2020
10
6 75% scenario: 5.96
6.12 Wind GW
5 50% scenario: 4.61
3.13 Other 4
1.12 2.94 25% scenario: 3.25
0.98
1.55 renewables Linear trend: 2.99
1.50 0.60 Solar 2
0 0.10
2010 2015 2020 AEEP target: 0.60
0
targets 2010 2015 2020
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
Renewable energy technologies are critical to the its development assistance portfolio for climate change-
development of modern, clean and sustainable electricity related projects. This will, of course, provide substantial
supply industries. Their technical development and finance for renewable generation and transmission
geographical spread is central to efforts to reduce global projects – some of it off-grid, as well as strengthening
greenhouse gas emissions, as enshrined in the UN existing utilities and national transmission and
Conference on Climate Change (COP21) Paris Agreement. distribution systems. EU support will also seek to promote
This commitment is being followed up within a framework more holistic programmes across a ‘nexus’ of sectors – for
of high level meetings, including the COP22 talks, to be example, linking energy projects to urban development,
held in Marrakech, Morocco on 7-18 November 2016. and access to water and sanitation.
With a stronger focus on renewables – drawn from the Renewable technology has become increasingly cost-
continent’s hydropower resources to solar, wind and competitive in recent years. The biggest developments to
biomass, and a range of cutting-edge new technologies – date, in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Morocco,
many African countries are better positioned than ever have demonstrated that large programmes can be
before to exploit the new deal COP21 offers to help them delivered on time and on budget. This is now being
supercede old, often polluting technologies. replicated elsewhere, including Egypt, which has major
wind and solar programmes.
The European Union is strongly committed to supporting
this trend, with a commitment to allocate at least 20% of For go-ahead governments and ambitious entrepreneurs,
28 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Installed renewable capacity by technology in 2010 and 2015, and 2020 projections
2010 2015 2020
Total capacity: 35,214MW Total capacity: 41,365MW
Pumped storage 1,580MW
3.8%
Pumped storage 1,580MW Wind 3,132MW Wind
4.5% 7.6% 12.0%
Wind 1,120MW Solar 1,546MW Solar
3.2% 3.7% 8.5%
Solar 102MW Geothermal 554MW
0.3% 1.3% Geothermal &
other renewables
Hydroelectricity Geothermal 219MW Other renewables
0.6% 950MW 4.2%
31,430MW
89.3% Other renewables Hydroelectricity 2.3% Hydroelectricity
763MW 33,604MW & pumped storage
2.2% 81.2% 75.3%
Source:
AEEP Power Project Database
AEEP | 29
Renewable Energy
developed projects – and nascent markets are emerging. Other countries are likely to experience wind and solar
transmission difficulties. Concerns have been raised over
Analysis of the project pipeline suggests Nigeria could
the effect on grid stability of the landmark 310MW Lake
bring between two and four renewable energy projects to
Turkana wind project, under construction in Kenya, which
close in 2016, with capacity of around 100MW. Also in
requires completion of a 428km transmission line. Zambia
Nigeria, a procurement programme is being designed with
Electricity Supply Company has issues taking power from
support from Germany’s GiZ, which is likely to start up
two new 50MW Scaling Solar photovoltaic plants, while in
during the year. More projects are expected to follow the
Uganda, hydroelectric power plants recently sat completed
BXC Ghana project, although issues remain to be resolved.
but without access to the grid pending coordination
Zambia, Senegal, and Madagascar have all joined the
between local authorities. The good news is that these
International Finance Corporation’s fast-moving Scaling
Solar initiative. perennial problems have now been widely recognised –
and long overdue investments and reforms are starting to
be made in response.
Questions of transmission
For solar and wind power in particular, the fragility of Among renewables growth markets, Egypt may need to
antiquated transmission systems has been a longstanding consider strengthening its transmission backbone to take
impediment, despite work to reinforce grids. Offtake electricity generated at solar PV projects in the south;
agreements have, in most cases, been underwritten by these are being developed under the first round of Cairo’s
state and development finance institutions – suggesting innovative renewable energy feed-in tariff scheme.
the system of guarantees and insurance will be tested as Negotiations were under way as this report went to press
an increasing number of renewable generation projects to put in place a standardised power purchase agreement
demand significantly more T&D infrastructure. Even RSA, (PPA) for solar and wind power; the resulting document is
with its sophisticated grid infrastructure, has struggled to seen by experts to be a critical factor in attracting
keep up with the geographical spread of renewables investors to the market as Egypt rolls out its ambitious
projects and pressures on its transmission system. development plans.
30 | AEEP
Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt
Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation
capacity, 2015: 2,581MW capacity, 2015: 579MW capacity, 2015: 348MW capacity, 2015: 0MW capacity, 2015: 3,548MW
(84% of total generation capacity) (4% of total generation capacity) (8% of total generation capacity) Selected renewables projects: (9% of total generation capacity)
Selected renewables projects: Selected renewables projects: Selected renewables projects: PIPELINE Selected renewables projects:
COMMISSIONED COMMISSIONED COMMISSIONED Southern Region Wind Farm • 250MW COMMISSIONED
Afourer • Pumped storage • 463MW Hassi R’Mel • Solar (25MW) / thermal Métline • Wind • 120MW Western Region Wind Farm • 250MW Aswan High Dam • Hydro • 2,100MW
Tarfaya • Wind • 300MW (125MW) hybrid Kchabta • Wind • 70MW Al-Muqrun • Wind • 240MW Zafarana • Wind • 547MW
Allal El Fassi • Hydro • 240MW Mansouria • Hydro • 100MW Sidi Daoud • Wind • 54MW Al-Fatayeh (Darnah) • Wind • 120MW Aswan II • Hydro • 270MW
Al-Wahda • Hydro • 240MW Darguina • Hydro • 71MW PIPELINE Sabha • Solar • 100MW Aswan I • Hydro • 238MW
Ouarzazate (Noor I) • Solar • 160MW Ain El Ibel • Solar • 20MW TuNur • Solar • 2,250MW Gulf of Zeit • Wind • 200MW
Tangier • Wind • 140MW Laghouat • Solar • 20MW Mellah • Pumped storage • 400-500MW Kureimat • Solar/thermal hybrid • 140MW
PIPELINE Kabertene 1, 2 • Wind • 14MW, 10MW Akarit • Solar • 50MW Isna • Hydro • 86MW
Safi-Essaouira • Nuclear • 1,000MW PIPELINE PIPELINE
Ouarzazate (Noor II-IV) • Solar • 420MW Solar PV (photovoltaic) ¥ 5,443MW El Daba • Nuclear • 4,800MW
Noor Midelt • Solar • 400MW Wind ¥ 2,600MW Gulf of Suez projects • Wind • 2,430MW
Tiskrad • Wind • 300MW CSP (concentrated solar power) ¥ 1,000MW Feed-in Tariff Round 1 ¥ Solar ¥ 2,300MW
Safi • Wind • 300MW (Source: Sonelgaz Report, June 2015) DARGUINA, ERRAGUÈNE, Feed-in Tariff Round 1 ¥ Wind ¥ 2,000MW
Abdelmoumen • Pumped stor. • 350MW Meghaïr • Solar (70MW) / thermal IGHIL EMDA, MANSOURIA, Gebel El Zeit projects • Wind • 960MW
Koudia Al-Baida II • Wind • 300MW (400MW) hybrid West Nile projects • Wind • 700MW
Jbel Lahdid • Wind • 200MW
M
Naâma • Solar/thermal hybrid • 220MW MÉTLINE, E Kom Ombo I & II • Solar • 220MW
Noor Atlas ¥ Solar ¥200MW KCHABTA D SIDI DAOUD
Noor Tafilalet ¥ Solar ¥ 100MW ALGIERS MELLAH I
ABDEL. TORRES OUED FERNANA T
TANGIER, SENDOUK FODDA BOUGHEZOUL
KHALLADI HAOUMA TUNIS E
LAFARGE NADOR Oran Constantine SIDI SALEM R
OUED EL MAKHAZINE R
3 1 OUJDA AÏN OUSSERA NEBEUR A
N E
RABAT 4 Fès 2 AÏN BÉNI AIN EL IBEL Sfax A N
Casablanca 5 IDRISSI MATHAR MEGHAÏR TUNISIA
DAOURAT, S E
IMFOUT, S.S. MÂACHOU 14 6 M’DEZ EL MENZEL AKARIT A
13 NOOR-M LAGHOUAT AL-FATAYEH
15 8 7 NAÂMA (DARNAH)
SAFI-ESSAOUIRA 9 HASSI R’MEL TUNUR TRIPOLI
JBEL LAHDID Marrakech 10 MOROCCO TAJURA
AMOUGDOUL 11 ALGERIA MISRATAH Benghazi
(CAP SIM) OUARZAZATE TARHUNA Alexandria
12 AL-MUQRUN
ABDELMOUMEN PS MANSOUR EDDEHBI HASSI EL DABA
IFRANE MESSAOUD CAIRO
1 MOHAMMED V 13 AFOURER PS Giza
2 TAZA 14 AL-MASSIRA ZAFARANA
AKHFENNIR TAN-TAN KUREIMAT
3 AL-WAHDA 15 SAFI (OULAD GHANEM, OUALIDIA) SIWA GULF OF SUEZ
4 EL KANSERA GULF OF ZEIT
TARFAYA 5 OULJET ES SOLTANE KABERTENE LIBYA WEST NILE GEBEL EL ZEIT
SABHA
Nile
Pipeline Pipeline The EC, EIB and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are From the European Commission Communication on
among institutions providing financial and technical support for RE and Security of Energy Supply and International Cooperation,
EE projects. September 2011
Hydroelectric Solar/thermal Not all the plans to connect the electricity systems of North African and “As a major energy consumer, importer and technology provider,
(including pumped hybrid European states have been successful, in a challenging political and the EU has an interest in the energy policy developments of its
storage: PS) economic environment. One of the most ambitious schemes, the Desertec partners across the globe. It is in the EU’s strategic interest to build
Waste-to- Industrial Initiative, collapsed in 2013. However, elements of the concept stable and long-term partnerships with its key suppliers and new
Wind power/biomass of using North Africa’s vast solar potential to supply Europe with clean potential suppliers. The EU’s low carbon objectives call for a new
power still exist, while some experts are still promoting the concept of a type of partnership where there is potential for renewable energy
Solar Nuclear ‘supergrid’ uniting the region’s power systems. supplies. The Union has an interest in extending and lifting to a
EU initiatives include the Renewable Energy Co-operation Programme, higher level its energy cooperation with Algeria…Future EU-Libya
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics launched in September 2010. Interconnections within Africa, and between energy cooperation could encompass a wide range of topics including
Sources: AEEP Power Project Africa and Europe, are critical to the Africa-EU Energy Partnership. renewable energy, electricity and energy market management.”
Database; African Energy Atlas
AEEP | 31
Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric power
60 in the period since the last Status Report. However, the
GW 55.30 (75% scenario) target should be comfortably met as a number of large
50 48.63 (50% scenario)
43.01 (AEEP target) projects are due to come online over the 2016-20 period.
40 35.18
33.01 41.97 (25% scenario)
30 Installed
37.36 (linear trend) Between 2010 and 2015, 2,174MW of hydropower
20 hydroelectric capacity was added. Additions were fairly evenly spread
capacity between the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with
10
projections 689MW added in West Africa, 560MW in Central Africa,
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database 515MW in Southern Africa, and 411MW in East Africa. This
does not tell the whole story, however. Rehabilitation work
Hydropower can be a victim of climate change – as has been undertaken at a large number of dilapidated
disastrous water shortages in some regions leave dams facilities since the 2000s, improving performance and
barely able to generate electricity – but it also holds a key reliability. With much of the continent’s 35,304MW
to providing clean, sustainable baseload energy, which can hydropower capacity very old and operating well below its
be produced from the continent’s abundant hydrological potential output, rehabilitation has the potential to add
basins, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia large amounts of power to the grid.
and several other ‘water towers’.
Run-of-river potential
The AEEP Power Project Database shows that, with its Large HEP projects dominate the AEEP Power Project
capacity to generate large volumes of energy, hydroelectric Database, but the AEEP is well aware that smaller projects
power (HEP) remains the dominant renewable technology can have a very big impact in providing energy for a large
operating on the continent – and will remain so in the portion of the rural population in Africa. Work is under
pipeline of projects being developed in the period to 2020 way to improve the commercial prospects of small run-of-
and beyond. Having turned away from large HEP projects river systems for rural electrification. In several countries,
in the previous decade due to concerns about such as Rwanda and Uganda, considerable progress has
environmental and social impacts, many donors are been made, supported by European instruments such as
looking to become involved in the sector again, but with a KfW’s GET-FIT scheme.
new system of safeguards in place.
With the advantage of being able to provide cheap power
Judged by the data, progress towards the AEEP’s target of 24 hours a day, small-scale HEP has considerable potential.
adding 10GW capacity increases has not been substantial The cost of identifying new sites on a scale which makes
1,800 1,800
Average HEP
1,600 capacity added each 1,600
year, 2000-15:
1,400 439MW 1,400
1,200 1,200
1,000 1,000
800 800
588 593
600 515 492
600
441 463 438
394
400 400
234 258
186
200 200
73 36
20 3
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
32 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
the mass production of turbines viable, has been an issue. project pipeline in Ethiopia, and studies carried out by
However, improvements to satellite imaging and Coyne et Bellier (Tractebel Group), Fichtner and Lahmeyer
accompanying software could help to identify thousands International. But China has built up the largest presence
of prospective sites (as it can optimise solar-powered mini- in building – and financing – HEP schemes. On the Victoria
grids), suggesting substantial progress to come. Nile in Uganda, Sinohydro has been building the 600MW
Karuma dam since 2013; its next phase of development is
‘Huge pipeline of projects’ due to be finished in 2018, supported by a $1.4bn loan
from the Export-Import Bank of China. China International
African HEP will benefit from a huge pipeline of projects
Water and Electric Corporation (CIWEC) is building the
which are under construction and expected to come into
183MW Isimba dam, which has raised concerns from local
operation over the next few years.
communities and the World Bank because of its potential
Most eye-catching are developments in Ethiopia, where impact on tourism, the environment and cultural heritage.
construction of the huge 6GW Grand Ethiopian In Cameroon, Sinohydro is building the 200MW Memve’ele
Renaissance Dam (GERD) is well under way. Despite HEP, for operation in mid-2017. Construction is expected
serious concerns about water flows expressed by to start in mid-2016 at the 420MW Nachtigal HEP, which is
downstream countries, GERD’s first two units are expected being developed by EDF Energy, the International Finance
to begin generating by the end of 2016. Ethiopian Electric Corporation and the Cameroon government. In Côte
Power Company (EEPCo) reported that the first four d’Ivoire, Sinohydro has been building the 274MW Soubré
187MW turbines at the 1,870MW Gilgel Gibe III dam dam since 2013, and on the border between Benin and
began operating early in 2016, with the rest expected to Togo it has begun work on the 147MW Adjarala HEP.
follow later in 2016. EEPCo is considering other large HEP
projects, including Gilgel Gibe IV (2GW), Tams (1.7GW) and HEP projects that came online in 2015 include the 160MW
Lom Pangar dam in Cameroon and 28MW Nyabarongo I in
Karadobi (1.6GW). These developments will be welcomed,
Rwanda. The 120MW Itezhi Tezhi plant in Zambia began
providing their environmental and social impacts are well
operating in January 2016, although drought has cut
understood and safeguards put in place.
output to a fraction of installed capacity. In Guinea, the
European companies have long been active in the HEP 240MW Kaleta dam was commissioned in mid-2015 by
sector, as reflected in Italian firm Salini Costruttori’s CIWEC – also contractor for the 450MW Souapiti dam.
Hydroelectric power installed capacity, 2000-15 Hydrological basins and water towers 1 Northwest coast
35.2 2 Mediterranean
35 34.4 34.7 2 south coast
33.8
33.0 33.3 3 North interior
32.5 4 Senegal
GW MIDDLE
ATLAS RANGE 2 5 West coast
30.2 30.2 6 Volta
29.6
30 29.1 29.6 1 3
28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 Total installed 3
hydroelectric generation 10
capacity in Africa
25 9
4 7 JOS 8 ETHIOPIAN
PLATEAU HIGHLANDS
5
6
10
20 FOUTA 5 5
DJALLON 12
7 Niger 9 11
8 Lake Chad 14 15
15 9 Nile ALBERTINE KENYAN
10 Red Sea / RIFT HIGHLANDS
Gulf of Aden coast 13
11 Rift Valley 11 SOUTHERN
12 Shebelle & Juba ANGOLAN HIGHLANDS
10 13 East central coast PLATEAU 16
LUFILIAN
14 Gulf of Guinea, east coast ARC
15 Congo 17
16 Southwest coast
17 Zambezi 18 24 25
5 18 South interior 19 23 CENTRAL HIGH
19 Namibia coast PLATEAU
20 Orange LESOTHO
21 South Africa west coast HIGHLANDS
22 South Africa east coast Sources:
0 20
23 Limpopo FAO-Aquastat;
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 15 21
24 Indian Ocean coast 22 UNEP (2010),
Source: AEEP Power Project Database 25 Madagascar Africa Water Atlas
AEEP | 33
Renewable Energy
Solar power
the solar industry’s success. While progress is undoubtedly
6,000 5,958 (75% scenario)
MW being made, away from the major markets of North Africa
5,000
4,606 (50% scenario) and South Africa there is much to do before solar and wind
4,000 power plants make an significant input into feeding
3,254 (25% scenario)
3,000 Installed 2,989 (linear trend) national grids. The largest solar power plant in East Africa
solar
2,000
generation
1,546 remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth Village solar
1,000 capacity projections PV developed by Gigawatt Global and commissioned by
102 602 (AEEP target)
0 Source: AEEP Power Scatec Solar in September 2014. In West Africa there are
2010 2015 2020 Project Database
few projects of note operating other than Masdar’s 15MW
photovoltaic project in Mauritania and BXC Ghana’s
With some of the world’s strongest irradiation levels, solar 20MW PV project.
has long been expected to have a big role to play in Africa’s
Solar products appear to be having the most impact,
energy future. That potential is now being confirmed, from
notably rooftop solar programmes, in a majority of African
the implementation of world-scale projects in Morocco
economies. Utility-scale solar is being held back by low
and Republic of South Africa (RSA), to impressive growth in
tariffs, inadequate regulation and weak transmission
the rooftop solar market, which is helping to mitigate the
systems. Efforts are under way to improve the situation,
impact of intermittent power supply and provide at least
such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s
some access to power for households not yet connected to
Scaling Solar initiative, which is offering a holistic package
the grid.
of support to prospective developers in three countries. In
Utility-scale solar parks have proven to be an effective way Zambia, the first country to sign up to Scaling Solar, eleven
of expanding generation in a short timeframe. Large solar companies have prequalified to bid to build two 50MW
projects to date have not suffered the delays and cost plants. The initiative is forcing the government to confront
overruns characteristic of some other technologies. problems around governance and transmission which, if
Concentrated solar power (CSP) can now, in some cases, addressed, will make solar more appealing to investors.
deliver 12 hours of storage, enabling generators to help
The KfW-sponsored Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs
meet morning peak demand.
(GET-FIT) programme in Uganda has underpinned the
Mini-grid technology continues to improve. Many 10MW Soroti PV plant and a 10MW plant at Tororo is
countries are working to put in place regulatory and expected to follow later in 2016. Development finance
financial structures to develop a commercial model for institutions (DFIs) are playing a key facilitating role in
solar powered mini- and micro-grids. Solar lamps, USB assisting governments in the design of appropriate
chargers and other products are having a transformative procurement programmes. Thus Germany’s GIZ is working
impact on households previously reliant on kerosene in Nigeria to design a new solar initiative. IFC hopes to
lamps and long walks to mobile phone charging stations. include Nigeria in its Scaling Solar programme.
34 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Other countries are investing heavily, and attracting funds, Among important initiatives, the European Commission
to utility-scale solar, including Egypt, which is promoting and Dutch DFI the Netherlands Development Finance
IPPs. Across the continent, larger scale solar schemes are Company (FMO) began implementation of the
being promoted. Notable developments are expected in Electrification Finance Initiative (ElectriFI) to coincide with
energy poor regions such as the Sahel, where Chad, the UN Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in late
Senegal and other governments are promoting utility- 2015. Rwanda has requested $50m from the Scaling Up
scale schemes. Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to back its
Renewable Energy Fund, which aims to catalyse private
A flexible technology for off-grid sector investments in off-grid and mini-grid solar PV by
developing a comprehensive strategy for off-grid
DFIs and private developers are increasingly focusing on
electrification.
off-grid and mini-grid solutions. By creating the right
environment for private sector operators and investors, an Pilot mini-grid projects initiated by NGOs and charitable
exponential increase in activity could follow in areas and corporate foundations have become sufficiently
unlikely to be connected to the main grid systems for established for private sector developers and government
many years. Offgrid advocates argue that this would utilities to begin pilots of their own (see Access).
circumvent the challenge of piecing together weak
The market for solar products such as lanterns and mobile
transmission and distribution systems while expanding
recharging stations is growing rapidly. SolarAid – a charity
access to energy poor communities.
founded by renewable developer SolarCentury and funded
An increasing number of African countries are putting in in part by 5% of its profits – and its social enterprise
place legislation and regulations to support nascent off- SunnyMoney has sold 1.7m of its solar lamps, priced at
grid and mini-grid industries. DFI initiatives and funds $10 each, in rural communities in Africa. It aims to
have proliferated to support this. However, work remains eliminate the use of kerosene lanterns, which are
to be done to establish model commercial and regulatory expensive and contribute to indoor air pollution. The
systems and significant questions remain to be answered market is deepening. In its 2015 impact report, SolarAid
about the ability of off-grid solutions to meet the said that in 2009 it sold just 5,000 lanterns in Tanzania but
ambitious targets set for them. by autumn 2015 had sold a cumulative 904,528.
841
800 New solar
capacity Yearly sum of global
irradiation incident on
optimally-inclined equator-
600 oriented photovoltaic
modules, 1985-2004 period
average, kWh/m 2
400 337
368 More than 2,600
2,400 – 2,600
209 2,200 – 2,400
200
127 128 2,000 – 2,200
102
35 25 1,800 – 2,000
1 Sources: HelioClim-1
0 1,600 – 1,800 database;
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PVGIS, European
Source: AEEP Power Project Database Less than 1,600 Communities
AEEP | 35
Renewable Energy
Wind power
8,000 8,299 (75% scenario) produce essential energy; this is underlined by Siemens’
MW 6,616 (50% scenario) decision to invest in a turbine manufacturing plant in
6,000 6,120 (AEEP target)
5,144 (linear trend)
Morocco and a growing number of projects in Republic of
Installed
wind
4,934 (25% scenario) South Africa (RSA). Investment in RSA has been
4,000 3,132
generation encouraged by the great success of the government’s
capacity
2,000 1,120 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
projections Procurement (REIPPP) programme.
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database
An analysis of projects that have announced expected
commercial operation dates in the AEEP Power Project
As one of the cheapest sources of renewable power, wind Database suggests the AEEP Political Target of adding
technology can play a big role in the development of the 5,000MW wind power by 2020 can be met, by ensuring
electricity supply industry in Africa. To date, major wind that 43% of projects in the pipeline are completed on
power projects have been largely restricted to the time. Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been
added, more than doubling the 2010 capacity of
industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.
1,120MW.
The industry suffers logistical constraints on the
continent, for example a lack of large cranes and poor The gains are heavily concentrated in the continent’s most
access roads, while also being heavily impacted by industrialised countries. The regional breakdown shows
disputes over land rights and compensation. But it has that most countries are being left behind. While North
the potential to drive industrial development, as well as Africa has capacity to date of 1,807MW and South Africa
3,132
Wind generation capacity, 2000Ð15
3,000 3,000
MW MW
2,750 2,750
1,750 1,750
1,538
1,500 1,500
1,342
1,256
1,250 1,120 1,250
36 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
Problems to confront
Kenya shows the opportunities and challenges that Sub-
Saharan countries are facing in developing wind power
projects. While the 310MW Lake Turkana project has been
successfully financed and is scheduled to start a three-
year commissioning process later this year, the 428km
transmission line required to connect the project to the
grid has been delayed following problems with wayleave.
This means that offtaker KenGen may have to make payments
under the take-or-pay arrangement for power it cannot
evacuate until the transmission line project is complete.
Procurement successes
Such issues cannot be ignored by developers and their eventually received a leading bid of $0.03/kWh from seven
financiers, but the wind sector can also point to some submissions.
considerable successes. These include the Cabeólica
project in Cape Verde,which was showcased in the 2014 In RSA, onshore wind power projects have proved by far
Status Report (page 33). the cheapest source of projects procured through the
REIPPP programme. In the fourth round of the programme
The largest procurement programmes in wind are the fully indexed price of power was R0.62 ($0.04)/kWh.
currently in Egypt, Morocco and RSA. Egypt’s 547MW The REIPPP’s success is evident in the price, which has
Zafarana wind complex is the largest on the continent, been halved from R1.363 ($0.09)/kWh in the first round.
and more units are planned to be added through the
Wind power has proved successful in developing local
country’s feed-in tariff and other programmes.
manufacturing bases in North and South Africa. Siemens is
Falling costs have made wind very competitive. Having planning turbine blade manufacturing facilities in
called for bids to develop five wind power projects with Morocco and Egypt while facilities have already been
850MW combined capacity, Moroccan state utility Office opened in South Africa, which have supplied components
National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable (ONEE) to wind power projects in the country.
AEEP | 37
Renewable Energy
38 | AEEP
Renewable Energy
AEEP | 39
Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency (EE) is a core component of measures for level. One indicator example could be energy consumption
reducing carbon emissions and for raising economic per unit of appliance.
performance by the ensuring scarce resources are not
In this report – for reasons of data availability and
wasted. However, across Africa the benefits of EE are often
consistency with earlier reporting – final energy
overlooked, or policies are poorly implemented, even
consumption per GDP at purchase power parity has been
though well-designed EE programmes can reduce costs for
chosen as the main indicator. Data is drawn from the
households and enterprises. Even in one of the most
SE4All Global Tracking Framework.
proactive countries, Morocco, CGEM employers association
president Miriem Bensalah Chaqroun observed in April For the electricity sector, network losses are a measure of
2016 that “the level of implementation of planned energy an efficient sector in good condition. Reducing losses
efficiency investments hasn’t reached 5%”. through transmission and distribution reduces the need
for generation, while at the same time improving the
Efficiency is difficult to quantify It manifests itself in
quality of supply by increasing the availability of power
different ways – in better appliances, new industrial
and stability of the grid.
processes, changes in economic structure and an effective
electricity supply industry . Initiatives to improve EE can
take many forms, from improved insulation to regulations.
AEEP workstream
The AEEP established an Energy Efficiency Workstream
As a result, there are a number of different ways to with the aim of supporting stakeholders in the private
measure EE, each of which has deficiencies. With proxies sector, academia and civil society. It has been preparing a
for EE, such as total primary or total final energy intensity, draft strategic plan to 2017, with its first workshop to be
data is relatively easy to retrieve, but difficult to interpret. held in May 2016. Work is ongoing to identify stakeholders
These potentially reflect a wide range of determining to map EE initiatives and strategies, which will be used to
factors, such as climate (heating and cooling needs), develop a matrix containing clear recommendations to
economic structure (in terms of sectors), the size of a promote energy efficiency in an African context.
country (with regard to transport needs), the exchange
rate, electrification rate or extent of biomass usage.
As the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report observed, energy EE Laws and Regulations
intensity can be at least as much an indicator of national
economic performance, since it captures structural To complement the quantitative monitoring of energy
changes and fluctuations in an economy at least as much efficiency data, a table was compiled for the 2014 AEEP
as any changes in EE. Therefore, a low level of energy
Status Report that showed the extent of legal and
institutional infrastructure across the continent. The
intensity does not necessarily mean high efficiency. This is
Energy Efficiency Laws table (on Status Report pages 56
nicely demonstrated by an example taken from the
and 57) – and associated collection of relevant
International Energy Agency – of a small, service-based
legislation and regulations – could be updated as a
country with a mild climate that would certainly have a
future workstream, to provide an overview of the extent
much lower intensity than a large industry-based country
of policy coverage in each of the 55 countries covered,
in a very cold climate, even if energy is more efficiently
and to monitor progress in introducing and
consumed in the latter country than in the first.
implementing legislation to help implement policy,
Sectoral energy intensity, as shown in the table on page create or reinforce institutions that regulate energy
40, provides somewhat more informational value since it efficiency measures, provide financial incentives and
allows an initial assessment of trends in energy oversee projects.
consumption and comparisons across countries. Then
Work is under way to support the regulatory framework
there are disaggregated indicators, such as sub-sectoral or
and enabling environment for improving energy
end-use indicators within various sectors, such as
efficiency, with support from the EU’s Technical
residential, services, industry, or transport (passenger and
Assistance Facility (TAF) for the SE4All Initiative and
freight). Process or appliance indicators capture even more
other European instruments.
disaggregate information at the unit energy consumption
40 | AEEP
Energy Efficiency
Energy intensity
past three years points to a stagnation of this trend, too.
9
%
8 7.90 The data is surprisingly consistent across regions, aside
7 from Southern Africa. Final energy intensity in the average
6.33
Average energy North African country was 6.4MJ/$ PPP in 2012, in East
6 5.52 (based on 2000–12 trend)
intensity of Africa it was 5.4MJ/$ PPP, in West Africa 5.5MJ/$ PPP and
5 final energy
4.83 (based on 2010–12 trend) Central Africa 4.8MJ/$ PPP. The figure in Southern Africa
4
projections was 9.6MJ/$ PPP, or 10.2MJ/$ PPP without South Africa.
3 US$ 2011 purchasing
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 20 power parity This suggests caution is required when working with the
energy intensity target.
The data used from the World Bank SE4All database
It is clear that less industrialised regions of Africa have a
suggest the African continent has seen a decrease in
tendency to have lower energy intensity, so it is possible
average final energy intensity of 20% (or an average 2.9%
that the lower intensity may be down to a much smaller
per year) from 7.9MJ at 2011 US dollar ($) purchasing
industrial base. However, a closer inspection of the figures
power parity (PPP) to 6.3MJ/$ PPP over the period 2000 to
shows that many of the poorest countries such as the
2012. This compares with the more modest decrease of 6%
Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Liberia have
(or average 1.8% per annum) from 6.7MJ/$ PPP to 6.3MJ/$
very high energy intensity. While it is possible that the
PPP between 2010 and 2012. The data thus shows that a limited industrial base in these countries is energy
seemingly positive trend – given all data and conceptual inefficient, it should also be remembered that an
qualifications – seems to have slowed down considerably. unusually low GDP could result in a high energy intensity
In comparison, average primary energy intensity for Africa figure.
(encompassing data from 53 African countries) has The regional breakdown implies that energy intensity
decreased from 10.4MJ/$ PPP in 2000 to 8.9MJ/$ PPP in measures might most usefully be targeted at the
2012 (average annual rate of 1.3%) – or by an average 2% industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.
per year between 2010 and 2012 (9.2MJ/$ PPP in 2010). The scale of industry in these countries means that the
Average energy intensity by sector – as measured by the potential energy efficiency savings are substantially larger.
ratio between energy consumption in the respective sector Another aspect of the way energy intensity is measured –
and the sector value-added at purchasing power parity (or energy use divided by GDP– is that the figure may fall
the number of households for the residential sector) – because the industrial base is shrinking. For example, it is
seems to have decreased in almost all sectors – except for possible that energy intensity may decline in line with the
agriculture – over the past 12 years. However, data for the fall in mining output across the continent, due to low
4 4
2 2
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework US$ 2011 purchasing power parity
AEEP | 41
Energy Efficiency
commodity prices, for example. In this case there would be (Unido), and even this tiny share of global production is
no energy efficiency benefit or the reduction might only heavily concentrated in the few industrialised countries.
be temporary. Africa only commands roughly 1.5% of the This suggests that energy intensity trends over the next
world’s total manufacturing output, according to the decade are likely to mirror more closely trends in economic
United Nations Industrial Development Organisation composition, rather than energy efficiency.
MAURITANIA
CAPE VERDE 1.9 3.6
NIGER
MALI 4.6 SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL 2.5 CHAD 3.6 3.0
3.8 2.5
THE GAMBIA 3.9 BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI
5.4 2.5
GUINEA-BISSAU 12.6 BENIN
GUINEA 10.0 8.5 NIGERIA ETHIOPIA
CÔTE GHANA 5.4 CENTRAL SOUTH 13.8
SIERRA LEONE 5.6 D’IVOIRE 3.1 AFRICAN REP. SUDAN
5.3 CAMEROON 4.0 na SOMALIA
LIBERIA TOGO 31.7
21.9 4.6
9.5
UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE 3.4 8.3 KENYA
GABON RWANDA 6.0
EQUATORIAL GUINEA 0.5 2.6 3.4
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI
REP. OF CONGO CONGO 12.2 SEYCHELLES 2.6
(BRAZZAVILLE) 18.3
TANZANIA
2.1 10.4
COMOROS 3.1
15.0+ MJ/$ ANGOLA MALAWI
3.1 ZAMBIA 5.4
10.0 – 14.9 MJ/$ 6.9
6.0 – 9.9 MJ/$ MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE 12.8
MADAGASCAR
3.0 – 5.9 MJ/$ 15.9
3.9 MAURITIUS 3.2
NAMIBIA
Less than 3 MJ/$ 3.2 BOTSWANA
2.9
No data available
SWAZILAND
4.7
Figures in red indicate a deterioration SOUTH LESOTHO
in the situation since 2010 AFRICA 9.7
4.4
US$ 2011 purchasing power parity
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
* All sectors MJ/$ at 2011 purchasing power parity. Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework.
42 | AEEP
Energy Efficiency
Network losses
14 Average network losses for Africa exhibit a quite stable
% 13.06 trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and 2012
13 12.67 12.64 (based on 2000–12 trend) (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change between 2010 and
2012. This tendency is similar when comparing
12 12.27 (based on 2010–12 trend)
SE4All/Global Tracking Framework data with statistics
11
Average transmission provided by the US Energy Information Administration
and distribution losses (EIA), even when accounting for total electricity output
projections
10 plus electricity imports as the denominator.
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 20 % of total electricity output
If African average T&D losses are measured as the average
of the percentage losses per country for each year of the
Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are
same sample, this results in losses of 21.5% for 2000,
an important aspect of supply side efficiency that
21.4% for 2010, and 26% for 2012. The 2012 increase was
continue to be a challenge in many African countries.
largely due to Botswana, which as a net electricity
Compared to Europe or the US, where average network importer displays losses as high as 158%; this makes the
losses of 7% can be assumed, many African countries need link between generation and distribution appear
to cope with sometimes sizable quantities of power lost implausible, but as mentioned above, the overall trend for
between generation locations and the end-user. Africa remains broadly the same even if electricity imports
Inadequate distribution infrastructure and damaged are accounted for.
power lines are factors that can account for this It should be pointed out that the numbers in the World
phenomenon. Other factors include technical as well as Bank/SE4All database seem to have changed significantly
non-technical losses arising from unmetered, unbilled and in some instances since the last AEEP Status Report, which
unpaid electricity, including theft. However, the was published in 2014 and used a dataset that concluded
International Energy Agency (IEA) has established that the in 2010. Further, the data show large fluctuations in T&D
location of primary energy resources (such as hydro-lakes losses year-on-year for some countries. This could be due
and coal seams) and large loads (cities and industries) can to varying electricity imports. Alternatively, the validity of
have an even more dominant effect on aggregate network the data must be questioned.
losses. These indicators cannot be properly accounted for
Looking at average regional network losses, all regions
without detailed analysis.
have remained at more or less similar levels over time,
For the purposes of this report, annual average T&D losses except for West Africa which has improved its T&D losses
have been calculated as their sum in GWh for all countries by more than 20 percentage points from 36.6% in 2000 to
for which data was available, divided by the sum of total 15.9% in 2012. The data suggest that, in West Africa,
electricity output in GWh for the same sample countries. Nigeria has made notable improvements, from 51% of
10 10
5 5
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework % of total electricity output
AEEP | 43
Energy Efficiency
losses in 2000 to 23% in 2010 and 12% in 2012. Senegal’s in its 2015 Power in Africa report, that improvements in
network losses also fell, from 43% in 2000 to 19% in 2012. generation capacities had not been accompanied by an
Southern Africa – excluding the Republic of South Africa adequate build-up of distribution infrastructure.
(RSA) – experienced considerable deterioration between
The data show that Central Africa displays a very low level
2000 and 2010. Since then, the situation has stabilised at
of network losses. One apparent reason for this is that in
about 18.6% of T&D losses. In Southern Africa, apart from
the special case of Botswana, Zambia’s losses worsened economies like Democratic Republic of Congo – with very
quite significantly from 3% in 2000 to 24% in 2010 and low levels of access – generation capacity is often built for
2012. The fact that Zambian generation rose by about 50% specific end-users, notably extractive industries, who do
in the same timeframe, led consultancy KPMG to conclude, not require extensive distribution infrastructure.
MAURITANIA
CAPE VERDE na na
NIGER
MALI na SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL na CHAD 19.0 16.7
19.4 na
THE GAMBIA na BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI
na na
GUINEA-BISSAU na BENIN
GUINEA na na NIGERIA ETHIOPIA
CÔTE GHANA 11.7 CENTRAL SOUTH 14.9
SIERRA LEONE na D’IVOIRE 22.0 AFRICAN REP. SUDAN
19.6 CAMEROON na na SOMALIA
LIBERIA TOGO na
na 12.6
93.0
UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE na na KENYA
GABON RWANDA 19.0
EQUATORIAL GUINEA na 21.9 na
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI
REP. OF CONGO CONGO na SEYCHELLES na
(BRAZZAVILLE) 7.8
TANZANIA
45.9 18.1
COMOROS na
% of gross electricity production: ANGOLA MALAWI
11.9 ZAMBIA na
80.0% + 24.3
40.0 – 79.9% MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE 15.1
20.0 – 39.9% 16.2 MADAGASCAR
na MAURITIUS na
NAMIBIA
10.0 – 19.9% 26.2 BOTSWANA
158.1
Less than 10%
SWAZILAND
No data available na
SOUTH LESOTHO
Figures in red indicate a deterioration AFRICA na
9.1
in the situation since 2010
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
North Africa West Africa East Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Southern Africa
(minus RSA)
44 | AEEP
African and European
Contributions
(ICA), which is managed by the AfDB in Abidjan. This
10 Funding to the
African energy useful tool has, over several years, tracked commitments
bn euros
sector: made by the European Investment Bank (EIB), European
8
3.60 from EU Commission (EC), France, Germany and the UK. It has been
2.77
6 working to expand its coverage, with significant success,
and this data is used to inform this report.
4 1.46
5.64 from Africa
2
5.17 African national government budget
3.32
allocations
0 The ICA has also been expanding its coverage and analysis
2012 2013 2014
of infrastructure spending in African government budgets.
AEEP | 45
African Contribution
African national governmentÕs budget allocations mechanisms, such as the AfDB’s $1bn loan commitment
to the energy sector, per capita average 2012Ð14 in 2014 for the Angola Power Sector Reform Support
Larger allocations: Programme, or the impact of investment, such as the
20 €6.9bn committed by several funders in 2010 to the
26
9.
11
capita over the three years to 2014 show some very wide
variations. This is based on initial work in this area by the
AEEP’s consultants, working with data from national
finance ministries and central banks. Angola stands out
5
.9
12
capita (at around €95/head). Botswana is ranked second
in this analysis (at €40/head), substantially ahead of
third- and fourth-ranked Cape Verde (€16 /head) and
Kenya (€14). These rankings should not be considered
true guides to a country’s commitment or overall
spending on African energy infrastructure, which may be
8
mainly made by a state utility or other subnational body.
26
Data considerations
6.
7
.7
25
ia
rd
an
ny
an
oi
Ve
Ke
m
w
Gh
Iv
An
ts
d’
Na
pe
multi-sector projects.
Bo
te
Ca
Cô
Smaller allocations:
This implies data presented here may be understated.
02
2
60
4
1.
4
1.
95
1 .0
0.
01
r 0.0
.0
Bi ea- 0
0
Where budgets specify amounts of internal and external
i
e
l
ria
au
nd
ga
ca
yp
M biqu
op
ge
ss
in
as
ne
M uru
Eg
ag
Se
am
Et
B
ad
46 | AEEP
African Contribution
have yet to be accurately identified and screened for commitments and disbursements from this burgeoning
double-counting before they can be added to the data that cohort of existing and potential funding sources.
monitors and assesses what resources are being
committed to the energy sector. Emerging private sources
African public sector funds flow into the energy sector Privately sourced financing for energy infrastructure is
from several sources. National government budget emerging across Africa – and in other regions such as the
allocations are a major source, but the role of subnational Gulf states – as predicted by the 2014 Status Report (page
funding should not be underestimated. Local or municipal 59), which observed that a trend towards parastatal,
government, or state utilities, are increasingly positioning capital markets and other private sector sources of
themselves to deploy internally generated funds or funding was emerging. A key focus for AEEP stakeholders
leverage finance from financial markets (as has been is to intensify the ‘blending’ of public and private finance.
established previously in other emerging regions such as Including more representatives of this trend among the
Eastern Europe and Latin America). In some of Africa’s AEEP’s stakeholder community, and monitoring this
largest economies – including Egypt, Republic of South important development are potential focal points for
Africa (RSA), Nigeria and Morocco – there is a very
substantial emphasis on subnational financing.
African National Government Budget Allocations
In its 2014 budget, the City of Johannesburg, allocated for Energy Infrastructure ($m)
€239m to infrastructure as defined by the ICA (transport,
water, energy and information and communications Country 2012 2013 2014
technology, or ICT); this was equivalent to 45% of its
capital expenditure. Johannesburg expected to raise Angola 627.958 2,691.854 2,270.628
€294m of its budget through internally generated taxes Botswana 124.529 77.881 55.413
and service charges. In 2013, the Lagos State Government
Burundi 7.300 11.994 10.565
Bond–Series 2 raised €422m for infrastructure.
Cape Verde 11.822 5.601 9.004
Morocco’s advanced regionalisation programme embraces
the concept of subnational government financing and Cote d'Ivoire 142.761 167.389 272.350
mechanisms for infrastructure funding, through structures
Egypt 130.026 85.588 124.886
such as the Fonds d’Equipement Communal (FEC), which
provides loans for specific investment projects and lines of Ethiopia 0.524 0.678 1.379
credit for financing longer-term development
Ghana na 40.507 160.867
programmes. FEC is financed through the local financial
market notably through credit lines, bond loans and Guinea Bissau 0.022 0.138 0.006
deposit certificates.
Kenya 559.459 695.225 670.584
African regional development banks are also ploughing
Madagascar 0.952 3.057 2.118
funds into the energy sector and leveraging financial
markets. Participants in the Lake Turkana Wind Project Mozambique 18.791 13.403 23.278
financing included the East African Development Bank and Namibia 7.824 4.849 7.871
PTA Bank, which concluded a milestone in November 2014
with a syndicated loan with a target of $200m; the facility Nigeria 338.506 353.033 283.453
closed at $320m, 1.6 times oversubscribed. Senegal 1.036 27.347 27.419
Other African sources of public sector finance include the South Africa 378.346 334.037 248.939
participation of the Central Bank of Nigeria in Lagos-based
infrastructure investor the African Finance Corporation South Sudan 7.708 0.222 0.470
along with other African (mainly Nigerian) financial Tanzania 157.643 205.586 411.946
institutions and corporate investors. Senegal’s
Togo 6.342 1.559 11.372
infrastructure finance system is now operated through the
newly established Fonds Souverain d’Investissements Uganda 318.425 367.315 374.751
Stratégiques (Fonsis).
Zimbabwe 40.864 15.746 13.646
There is considerable scope for international institutions
Total 2,880.840 5,103.008 4,980.946
to extend the charting, tracking and analysis of
AEEP | 47
European Contribution
future activity by the Partnership, as African infrastructure EU member statesÕ commitments to the
financing becomes established as an asset class, and local African energy sector, 2010Ð14
financial markets become deeper, allowing more African 6,000
citizens and foreign funds to invest. Total:
5,595
m 2,182
euros
European contributions to funding
African energy projects 5,000
The 28 EU Member States make substantial direct
commitments to Africa’s energy sector, on average over
the five years to 2014 providing €1.7bn annually in Indirect funding via WBG
concessional and non-concessional financing. Additionally,
Indirect funding via AfDB
the EU has a strong and wide-ranging partnership with
4,000 Direct funding
the WBG and AfDB, as do a range of EU institutions,
including the EC, European Council, European Parliament 3,596
and EIB. 351
624
The Member States are major shareholders and partners in
282
the work of the WBG, accounting for nearly one-third of 3,000
shares in the International Bank for Reconstruction and 2,765 2,963
Development (IBRD) and half of contributions to the soft- 2,789 623
lending International Development Association (IDA).
48 | AEEP
Targets to 2020 and Beyond
This Status Report Update gives strong pointers to the that some targets could be reached already, while many –
progress and problems experienced in meeting the Africa- but not all – will be exceeded by 2020.
EU Energy Partnership’s 2020 Political Targets. Some
Some AEEP stakeholders argue that it may be appropriate
developments have been exceptional since the Partnership
to ask if the timeframe for the Political Targets should be
was created – for example, the amount of solar capacity
extended. There are two main reasons for this. 2020 is fast
that has been installed, which is already much greater
approaching, and a decision to extend the deadline would
than envisaged when the AEEP was created at the Lisbon
allow for more rational planning of research and projects,
summit in 2007. The scale of international concern about
for example allowing the AEEP Monitoring Tool databases
the need to seriously tackle energy poverty in Africa is
to incorporate project projections that go beyond the
much greater than when African and European leaders
current cut-off. A new target date would enable a wider
first highlighted this global-scale problem.
coordination of programmes into the next decade.
The AEEP has been a pioneer in proposing policy directions
and targets to overcome energy poverty, improve It should also be considered that a number of more recent,
efficiency and underpin domestic and cross-border energy complementary initiatives – including SE4All, which has
security in Africa and Europe. Now approaching its second strong support from the African Union and European
decade, the AEEP has been instrumental in shaping the Commission, and lately the African Renewable Energy
approach of global initiatives like the United Nations-led Initiative – have taken 2030 as their target date. So have
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which have understood the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals
the need to collect and collate more accurate data that can (SDGs), which are intended as a baseline for harmonising
inform the campaign to end energy poverty. global action to tackle poverty, and will have an impact on
energy, climate change mitigation and related sectors.
Through initiatives such as operationalising the AEEP
Monitoring Tool – and its Africa Power Project Database,
Harmonising efforts
which now contains information on more than 3,250
Efforts to harmonise the growing number of international
operating and planned generation plants, plus electricity
African energy-focused initiatives – a process in which the
interconnections and other data – the Partnership has
shown a steely commitment to establishing a strong AEEP is playing a leading role – suggest that more should
empirical basis for understanding trends and tackling be done to avoid duplicating effort by encouraging
problems. In this approach, the Partnership – piloted by cooperation in data-gathering and policy-making.
the AEEP Secretariat, as mandated by its member While the AEEP Monitoring Tool has established a niche in
governments and co-chairs – has shown a refreshing tracking generation projects, the AEEP Secretariat has
capacity to be critical about data and policy. AEEP adopted data gathered in the SE4All Global Tracking
stakeholders generally agree that only by encouraging Framework for access and efficiency indicators. The SE4All
critical dialogue can Africa and Europe move forward. database contains estimates of access to electricity and
The Lisbon 2020 Political Targets set the initial phase of non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity and electricity
work, providing goals that Africa and Europe should aspire transmission and distribution losses for all but a handful
to meet, and mandating the new Partnership to monitor of African countries. AEEP stakeholders are already
those benchmarks. This Status Report Update continues working with SE4All and the GTF process.
that work in a spirit that typifies the AEEP – intended as a In the questioning spirit that typifies the AEEP,
basis for further discussion, which is likely to focus on stakeholders have long discussed whether these – and
several areas. other – indicators are appropriate measures for the
partnership to be working with. Should, for example,
Extending the targets energy industries’ contribution to create jobs or other
Following nearly a decade of growth in the African energy critical social issues be adopted as benchmarks? Such has
industries, it is relevant to ask whether the AEEP’s political been the AEEP’s role in providing critical leadership in its
targets are still appropriate, both numerically and core areas of interest, that such questions are not only
chronologically. The AEEP Power Project Database suggests appropriate, but should be asked.
AEEP | 49
Imprint
Editors
David Otieno and Hadley Taylor (AEEP Secretariat)
Report prepared by
Jon Marks (lead author), David Burles (maps and graphics) The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one of
Mark Ford, Dan Marks, David Slater the initial eight partnerships under the Joint Africa-EU
Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for cooperation
between the two continents. The African Union
Commission, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt, the European
Cross-border Information, Commission, Germany, Italy are the Steering Group
www.crossborderinformation.com members providing political guidance to the Partnership.
50 | AEEP
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one of increase access
The AEEP’s overall objective is to improve the to
the initial eight partnerships created under the Joint effectiveness
reliable, of affordable
secure, efforts to secure reliable and
and sustainable sustainable
energy
Africa-EU Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for co- energy services
services for bothand extend their
continents, withaccess
the aimonof
both
achieving the
operation between the two continents. Africa and Europe continents, with
Millennium the aim of
Development achieving
Goals the The
in Africa. Sustainable
AEEP’s
work together through the AEEP to develop a shared Development
efforts Goalson
are focused inmeeting
Africa. The AEEP’s
a series ofefforts are
concrete,
vision, common policy approaches and actions. focused and
realistic on meeting a seriesby
visible targets of2020,
concrete, realistic
as agreed byand
the
visible targetsFirst
Partnership’s by 2020, as agreed
High Level by the
Meeting, Partnership’s
held in Vienna on
Six Steering Group members – who now comprise the
First High
14–15 Level Meeting,
September 2010, andheld in September
developed 2010, and
through
African Union Commission, the Common Market for
developed through
subsequent actions subsequent
and meetings actions
since.and meetings.
Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,
the European Commission, Germany and Italy – provide This report’s aim is to provide an update of the AEEP’s
political guidance to the Partnership. The AEEP Secretariat benchmarks and to monitor progress in achieving the
is hosted by the Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF), Partnership’s goals, while also pointing to directions for
which is an instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI). continued action.