UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE PIURA

FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA CIVIL

VIII CICLO

IRRIGACION Y DRENAJE

TRABAJO ENCARGADO
(PUENTE)

ING. OSCAR CASTRO ÑAÑEZ

(PROFESOR ENCARGADO)

MARTINEZ CURO CARLOS ALFREDO

VIERA GALAN JUAN EMILIO
(ESTUDIANTES)

PIURA-2018
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE DATOS HIDROLOGICOS DEL PUENTE JUAN
PABLO SEGUNDO
AÑO PUENTE JUAN PABLO II 1966 49.0
1925 1066.0 1967 82.0
1926 860.0 1968 21.0
1927 610.0 1969 180.0
1928 124.0 1970 29.0
1929 135.0 1971 545.0
1930 95.0 1972 1616.0
1931 450.0 1973 845.0
1932 1900.0 1974 58.0
1933 620.0 1975 272.0
1934 438.0 1976 388.0
1935 379.0 1977 646.0
1936 390.0 1978 167.0
1937 39.0 1979 74.0
1938 508.0 1980 45.0
1939 1525.0 1981 568.0
1940 185.0 1982 390.0
1941 2220.0 1983 3200.0
1942 405.0 1984 980.0
1943 2250.0 1985 112.0
1944 273.0 1986 25.0
1945 220.0 1987 574.0
1946 134.0 1988 6.0
1947 41.0 1989 845.0
1948 42.5 1990 6.0
1949 1010.0 1991 14.0
1950 0.0 1992 1793.0
1951 0.0 1993 1042.0
1952 153.0 1994 1108.0
1953 2200.0 1995 75.0
1954 44.0 1996 100.9
1955 350.0 1997 638.1
1956 1530.0 1998 4424.0
1957 1700.0 1999 3107.0
1958 690.0 2000 1516.0
1959 900.0 2001 2124.0
1960 81.0 2002 3642.0
1961 88.0 2003 200.0
1962 115.0 2004 14.0
1963 37.0 2005 128.0
1964 33.0 2006 370.0
1965 2500.0 2007 80.0
2008 2010.0
 Análisis de Datos
PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 719.6
Mediana 374.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 929.8618215
Varianza 864643.0072
Curtosis 3.4138
Coeficiente de asimetría 1.857283407
Máximo 4424.0
Suma 60449.5

ESTIMACIÓN DE CAUDALES MÁXIMOS PARA LOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO

SELECCIONADOS
Como se ha señalado anteriormente, debe determinarse periodos de retorno adecuados
para el análisis de niveles, dada la incertidumbre, para lo cual consideramos los
siguientes:

 Qmax para T = 100 años, para la estimación de niveles máximos.

 Qmax para T = 140 años, para la estimación de niveles máximos por el nivel de
riesgo del 25%.
 Qmax para T = 200 años, tanto para la estimación de niveles máximos, así como
para el diseño de defensas ribereñas.
 Qmax para T = 500 años, para el cálculo de niveles de socavación, y con ello, la
determinación de niveles de cimentación de estribos del puente y de las obras
de defensa ribereña en los tramos de aguas arriba y aguas abajo del puente.
Modelos de distribución
El análisis de frecuencias tiene la finalidad de estimar precipitaciones, intensidades o
caudales máximos, según sea el caso, para diferentes períodos de retorno, mediante la
aplicación de modelos probabilísticos, los cuales pueden ser discretos o continuos.
En la estadística existen diversas funciones de distribución de probabilidad teóricas;
recomendándose utilizar las siguientes funciones:
I. Distribución Normal
II. Distribución Log Normal 2 parámetros
III. Distribución Log Normal 3 parámetros
IV. Distribución Gumbel
V. Distribución Log Gumbel
VI. Distribución Gamma
VII. Distribución Log Pearson tipo III
1. Distribución Normal

La función de densidad de probabilidad normal se define como:

DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AÑO Q Q ordenados F(X) f(x)
1925 1066.0 4424.0 1.0000 0.000000
1926 860.0 3642 0.9992 0.000003
1927 610.0 3200.0 0.9962 0.000012
1928 124.0 3107 0.9949 0.000016
1929 135.0 2500.0 0.9722 0.000069
1930 95.0 2250.0 0.9501 0.000111
1931 450.0 2220.0 0.9467 0.000117
1932 1900.0 2200.0 0.9443 0.000121
1933 620.0 2124 0.9345 0.000137
1934 438.0 2010 0.9174 0.000164
1935 379.0 1900.0 0.8979 0.000192
1936 390.0 1793.0 0.8758 0.000220
1937 39.0 1700.0 0.8541 0.000246
1938 508.0 1616.0 0.8325 0.000270
1939 1525.0 1530.0 0.8083 0.000293
1940 185.0 1525.0 0.8068 0.000295
1941 2220.0 1516 0.8041 0.000297
1942 405.0 1108.0 0.6619 0.000393
1943 2250.0 1066.0 0.6452 0.000400
1944 273.0 1042.0 0.6356 0.000404
1945 220.0 1010.0 0.6226 0.000409
1946 134.0 980.0 0.6103 0.000413
1947 41.0 900.0 0.5769 0.000421
1948 42.5 860.0 0.5600 0.000424
1949 1010.0 845.0 0.5536 0.000425
1950 0.0 845.0 0.5536 0.000425
1951 0.0 690.0 0.4873 0.000429
1952 153.0 646.0 0.4684 0.000428
1953 2200.0 638.1 0.4651 0.000427
1954 44.0 620.0 0.4573 0.000427
1955 350.0 610.0 0.4531 0.000426
1956 1530.0 574.0 0.4378 0.000424
1957 1700.0 568.0 0.4352 0.000423
1958 690.0 545.0 0.4255 0.000422
1959 900.0 508.0 0.4100 0.000418
1960 81.0 450.0 0.3859 0.000411
1961 88.0 438.0 0.3810 0.000410
1962 115.0 405.0 0.3675 0.000405
1963 37.0 390.0 0.3615 0.000403
1964 33.0 390.0 0.3615 0.000403
1965 2500.0 388.0 0.3607 0.000403
1966 49.0 379.0 0.3571 0.000401
1967 82.0 370 0.3535 0.000400
1968 21.0 350.0 0.3455 0.000396
1969 180.0 273.0 0.3155 0.000382
1970 29.0 272.0 0.3151 0.000382
1971 545.0 220.0 0.2955 0.000371
1972 1616.0 200 0.2881 0.000367
1973 845.0 185.0 0.2827 0.000364
1974 58.0 180.0 0.2808 0.000363
1975 272.0 167.0 0.2761 0.000360
1976 388.0 153.0 0.2711 0.000356
1977 646.0 135.0 0.2648 0.000352
1978 167.0 134.0 0.2644 0.000352
1979 74.0 128 0.2623 0.000350
1980 45.0 124.0 0.2609 0.000349
1981 568.0 115.0 0.2578 0.000347
1982 390.0 112.0 0.2567 0.000347
1983 3200.0 100.9 0.2529 0.000344
1984 980.0 95.0 0.2509 0.000342
1985 112.0 88.0 0.2485 0.000341
1986 25.0 82.0 0.2464 0.000339
1987 574.0 81.0 0.2461 0.000339
1988 6.0 80 0.2458 0.000339
1989 845.0 75.0 0.2441 0.000337
1990 6.0 74.0 0.2437 0.000337
1991 14.0 58.0 0.2384 0.000333
1992 1793.0 49.0 0.2354 0.000331
1993 1042.0 45.0 0.2341 0.000330
1994 1108.0 44.0 0.2337 0.000329
1995 75.0 42.5 0.2332 0.000329
1996 100.9 41.0 0.2327 0.000329
1997 638.1 39.0 0.2321 0.000328
1998 4424.0 37.0 0.2314 0.000328
1999 3107 33.0 0.2301 0.000327
2000 1516 29.0 0.2288 0.000326
2001 2124 25.0 0.2275 0.000325
 2002 3642 21.0 0.2262 0.000324
2003 200 14.0 0.2240 0.000322
2004 14 14 0.2240 0.000322
2005 128 6.0 0.2214 0.000320
2006 370 6.0 0.2214 0.000320
2007 80 0.0 0.2195 0.000318
2008 2010 0.0 0.2195 0.000318

Histograma
0.000500
0.000450
0.000400
0.000350
0.000300
0.000250
0.000200
0.000150
0.000100
0.000050
0.000000
-1000.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0

TIEMPO DE RETORNO (T) P(X<=x) Z (TABLA) Q max

10 0.9000 1.28155 1,911.303

20 0.9500 1.64485 2,249.123
50 0.9800 2.05375 2,629.340
100 0.9900 2.32635 2,882.819
140 0.9929 2.45000 2,997.796
200 0.9950 2.57583 3,114.802
500 0.9980 2.87816 3,395.930

2. Distribución Log Normal 2 Parámetros

La función de distribución de probabilidad es:

AÑO Q Q ordenados y=ln(x) F(x) f(x)
1925 1066.0 4424.0 8.4 0.9 0.1
1926 860.0 3642 8.2 0.9 0.1
1927 610.0 3200.0 8.1 0.9 0.1
1928 124.0 3107 8.0 0.9 0.1
1929 135.0 2500.0 7.8 0.9 0.1
1930 95.0 2250.0 7.7 0.9 0.1
1931 450.0 2220.0 7.7 0.9 0.1
1932 1900.0 2200.0 7.7 0.9 0.1
1933 620.0 2124 7.7 0.9 0.1
1934 438.0 2010 7.6 0.9 0.1
1935 379.0 1900.0 7.5 0.9 0.1
1936 390.0 1793.0 7.5 0.9 0.1
1937 39.0 1700.0 7.4 0.9 0.1
1938 508.0 1616.0 7.4 0.9 0.1
1939 1525.0 1530.0 7.3 0.8 0.1
1940 185.0 1525.0 7.3 0.8 0.1
1941 2220.0 1516 7.3 0.8 0.1
1942 405.0 1108.0 7.0 0.8 0.2
1943 2250.0 1066.0 7.0 0.8 0.2
1944 273.0 1042.0 6.9 0.8 0.2
1945 220.0 1010.0 6.9 0.8 0.2
1946 134.0 980.0 6.9 0.8 0.2
1947 41.0 900.0 6.8 0.8 0.2
1948 42.5 860.0 6.8 0.8 0.2
1949 1010.0 845.0 6.7 0.8 0.2
1950 0.0 845.0 6.7 0.8 0.2
1951 0.0 690.0 6.5 0.7 0.2
1952 153.0 646.0 6.5 0.7 0.2
1953 2200.0 638.1 6.5 0.7 0.2
1954 44.0 620.0 6.4 0.7 0.2
1955 350.0 610.0 6.4 0.7 0.2
1956 1530.0 574.0 6.4 0.7 0.2
1957 1700.0 568.0 6.3 0.7 0.2
1958 690.0 545.0 6.3 0.7 0.2
1959 900.0 508.0 6.2 0.7 0.2
1960 81.0 450.0 6.1 0.6 0.2
1961 88.0 438.0 6.1 0.6 0.2
1962 115.0 405.0 6.0 0.6 0.2
1963 37.0 390.0 6.0 0.6 0.2
1964 33.0 390.0 6.0 0.6 0.2
1965 2500.0 388.0 6.0 0.6 0.2
1966 49.0 379.0 5.9 0.6 0.2
1967 82.0 370 5.9 0.6 0.2
1968 21.0 350.0 5.9 0.6 0.2
 1969 180.0 273.0 5.6 0.5 0.2
1970 29.0 272.0 5.6 0.5 0.2
1971 545.0 220.0 5.4 0.5 0.2
1972 1616.0 200 5.3 0.5 0.2
1973 845.0 185.0 5.2 0.4 0.2
1974 58.0 180.0 5.2 0.4 0.2
1975 272.0 167.0 5.1 0.4 0.2
1976 388.0 153.0 5.0 0.4 0.2
1977 646.0 135.0 4.9 0.4 0.2
1978 167.0 134.0 4.9 0.4 0.2
1979 74.0 128 4.9 0.4 0.2
1980 45.0 124.0 4.8 0.4 0.2
1981 568.0 115.0 4.7 0.3 0.2
1982 390.0 112.0 4.7 0.3 0.2
1983 3200.0 100.9 4.6 0.3 0.2
1984 980.0 95.0 4.6 0.3 0.2
1985 112.0 88.0 4.5 0.3 0.2
1986 25.0 82.0 4.4 0.3 0.2
1987 574.0 81.0 4.4 0.3 0.2
1988 6.0 80 4.4 0.3 0.2
1989 845.0 75.0 4.3 0.3 0.2
1990 6.0 74.0 4.3 0.3 0.2
1991 14.0 58.0 4.1 0.2 0.2
1992 1793.0 49.0 3.9 0.2 0.1
1993 1042.0 45.0 3.8 0.2 0.1
1994 1108.0 44.0 3.8 0.2 0.1
1995 75.0 42.5 3.7 0.2 0.1
1996 100.9 41.0 3.7 0.2 0.1
1997 638.1 39.0 3.7 0.2 0.1
1998 4424.0 37.0 3.6 0.1 0.1
1999 3107 33.0 3.5 0.1 0.1
2000 1516 29.0 3.4 0.1 0.1
2001 2124 25.0 3.2 0.1 0.1
2002 3642 21.0 3.0 0.1 0.1
2003 200 14.0 2.6 0.1 0.1
2004 14 14 2.6 0.1 0.1
2005 128 6.0 1.8 0.0 0.0
2006 370 6.0 1.8 0.0 0.0
2007 80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2008 2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIA 719.6 MEDIA 5.5

DESV.EST. 929.8618215 DESV.EST. 1.80358145
 Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
10

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.1
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.90

z = f ( P no exc) DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV 0.90

z= 1.28155157

y= m + z*s

y= 7.82336922
y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 2498.31

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr

20
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.05
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.95

z = f ( P no exc) 0.95
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 1.64485363

y= m + z*s

y= 8.47861408
 y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 4810.78

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
50
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.02
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.98

z = f ( P no exc) 0.98
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.05374891

y= m + z*s

y= 9.21609003

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 10057.66

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
100
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.01
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.99

z = f ( P no exc) 0.99
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.32634787

y= m + z*s

y= 9.70774446
 y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 16444.47

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
140

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.00714286
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.99

z = f ( P no exc) 0.99
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.44999766

y= m + z*s

y= 9.93075692

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 20552.89

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
200

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.005
Pno exc = 1-P exc 1.00

z = f ( P no exc) 1.00
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.5758293
 y= m + z*s

y= 10.1577045

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 25789.03

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
500

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / Tr 0.002
Pno exc = 1-P exc 1.00

z = f ( P no exc) 1.00
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

z= 2.87816174

y= m + z*s

y= 10.7029857

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 44488.49
 histogramas de las x
0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0
-1000.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0

histograma de las y
0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
3. Distribución Log Normal 3 Parámetros

La función de densidad de x es:

f y z P f` Chi2 2.3138
10 9.2 2.462 0.993 8.39 0.3108 k 5
9 7.4 1.174 0.880 8.86 0.0023 m 3
6 6.8 0.706 0.760 5.56 0.0343 gdl 1
16 6.5 0.481 0.685 21.58 1.4436 0.00393214
33 5.4 -0.271 0.393 29.10 0.5228

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
10

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.1
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.9

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 1.281551566

y= m+z * s

y= 7.57

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 1945.511

x= 1920.45
 Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
20

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.05
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.95

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 1.644853627

y= m+z * s

y= 8.08

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 3222.896

x= 3222.90

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
50

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.02
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.98

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.053748911

y= m+z * s

y= 8.65

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)
 x-a= 5688.127

x= 5688.13

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
100

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.01
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.326347874

y= m+z * s

y= 9.02

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 8307.159

x= 8307.16

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
140

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.00714286
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99285714

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.449997661

y= m+z * s
 y= 9.20

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 9864.191

x= 9864.19

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
200

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.005
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.995

z = f ( Pexc)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.575829304

y= m+z * s

y= 9.37

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 11748.621

x= 11748.62

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,
500

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

Pexc = 1 / 50 = 0.002
Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.998
z = f ( Pexc)
 =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.878161739

y= m+z * s

y= 9.79

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 17881.791

x= 17881.79

Lognormal 3
0.350000

0.300000

0.250000

0.200000

0.150000

0.100000

0.050000

0.000000
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

4. Distribución Log Gumbel

La variable aleatoria reducida log gumbel, se define como:

 Q
AÑO Q ordenados y = (x - u)/a Tr
1925 1066.0 4424.0 5.3 205.9
1926 860.0 3642 4.3 75.6
1927 610.0 3200.0 3.7 43.0
1928 124.0 3107 3.6 38.2
1929 135.0 2500.0 2.8 17.8
1930 95.0 2250.0 2.5 13.0
1931 450.0 2220.0 2.5 12.6
1932 1900.0 2200.0 2.5 12.2
1933 620.0 2124 2.4 11.2
1934 438.0 2010 2.2 9.7
1935 379.0 1900.0 2.1 8.5
1936 390.0 1793.0 1.9 7.5
1937 39.0 1700.0 1.8 6.7
1938 508.0 1616.0 1.7 6.1
1939 1525.0 1530.0 1.6 5.5
1940 185.0 1525.0 1.6 5.4
1941 2220.0 1516 1.6 5.4
1942 405.0 1108.0 1.1 3.4
1943 2250.0 1066.0 1.0 3.3
1944 273.0 1042.0 1.0 3.2
1945 220.0 1010.0 0.9 3.1
1946 134.0 980.0 0.9 3.0
1947 41.0 900.0 0.8 2.7
1948 42.5 860.0 0.7 2.6
1949 1010.0 845.0 0.7 2.6
1950 0.0 845.0 0.7 2.6
1951 0.0 690.0 0.5 2.2
1952 153.0 646.0 0.5 2.1
1953 2200.0 638.1 0.5 2.1
1954 44.0 620.0 0.4 2.1
1955 350.0 610.0 0.4 2.1
1956 1530.0 574.0 0.4 2.0
1957 1700.0 568.0 0.4 2.0
1958 690.0 545.0 0.3 2.0
1959 900.0 508.0 0.3 1.9
1960 81.0 450.0 0.2 1.8
1961 88.0 438.0 0.2 1.8
1962 115.0 405.0 0.2 1.7
1963 37.0 390.0 0.1 1.7
1964 33.0 390.0 0.1 1.7
1965 2500.0 388.0 0.1 1.7
1966 49.0 379.0 0.1 1.7
1967 82.0 370 0.1 1.7
1968 21.0 350.0 0.1 1.7
1969 180.0 273.0 0.0 1.6
1970 29.0 272.0 0.0 1.6
1971 545.0 220.0 -0.1 1.5
1972 1616.0 200 -0.1 1.5
1973 845.0 185.0 -0.1 1.5
1974 58.0 180.0 -0.1 1.5
1975 272.0 167.0 -0.2 1.5
1976 388.0 153.0 -0.2 1.4
1977 646.0 135.0 -0.2 1.4
1978 167.0 134.0 -0.2 1.4
1979 74.0 128 -0.2 1.4
1980 45.0 124.0 -0.2 1.4
1981 568.0 115.0 -0.2 1.4
1982 390.0 112.0 -0.2 1.4
1983 3200.0 100.9 -0.2 1.4
1984 980.0 95.0 -0.2 1.4
1985 112.0 88.0 -0.3 1.4
1986 25.0 82.0 -0.3 1.4
1987 574.0 81.0 -0.3 1.4
1988 6.0 80 -0.3 1.4
1989 845.0 75.0 -0.3 1.4
1990 6.0 74.0 -0.3 1.4
1991 14.0 58.0 -0.3 1.4
1992 1793.0 49.0 -0.3 1.3
1993 1042.0 45.0 -0.3 1.3
1994 1108.0 44.0 -0.3 1.3
1995 75.0 42.5 -0.3 1.3
1996 100.9 41.0 -0.3 1.3
1997 638.1 39.0 -0.3 1.3
1998 4424.0 37.0 -0.3 1.3
1999 3107 33.0 -0.3 1.3
2000 1516 29.0 -0.3 1.3
2001 2124 25.0 -0.3 1.3
2002 3642 21.0 -0.3 1.3
2003 200 14.0 -0.4 1.3
2004 14 14 -0.4 1.3
2005 128 6.0 -0.4 1.3
2006 370 6.0 -0.4 1.3
2007 80 0.0 -0.4 1.3
2008 2010 0.0 -0.4 1.3
 x 719.64 0.56
Sx 929.86 1.20

n 84
yn 0.5576
Sn 1.1967

parámetros según n
a = Sx / Sn 777.02
u = x-yn*a 286.37

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
10

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.1

e(-e(-y))= 0.9

-e(-y)= -0.10536052

e(-y)= 0.10536052

-y = -2.25036733

y= 2.25036733

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 2034.95

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
20

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.05

e(-e(-y))= 0.95

-e(-y)= -0.05129329
 e(-y)= 0.05129329

-y = -2.97019525

y= 2.97019525

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 2594.28

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
50

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.02

e(-e(-y))= 0.98

-e(-y)= -0.02020271

e(-y)= 0.02020271

-y = -3.90193866

y= 3.90193866

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 3318.26

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
100

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99
 -e(-y)= -0.01005034

e(-y)= 0.01005034

-y = -4.60014923

y= 4.60014923

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 3860.79

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
140

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.00714286

e(-e(-y))= 0.99285714

-e(-y)= -0.00716849

e(-y)= 0.00716849

-y = -4.93806032

y= 4.93806032

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 4123.35

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
200

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.005
 e(-e(-y))= 0.995

-e(-y)= -0.00501254

e(-y)= 0.00501254

-y = -5.29581214

y= 5.29581214

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 4401.33

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr
500

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.002

e(-e(-y))= 0.998

-e(-y)= -0.002002

e(-y)= 0.002002

-y = -6.21360726

y= 6.21360726

x-u
y=
a

x= u + a.y

x= 5114.48
 5000.0
4500.0
4000.0
3500.0
3000.0
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
-500.0

5. Distribución Gamma 2 Parámetros

La función de densidad es:

Q
AÑO Q ordenados f(x) F(x)
1925 1066.0 4424.0 0.00000833 0.99081953
1926 860.0 3642 0.00001726 0.98124780
1927 610.0 3200.0 0.00002626 0.97177357
1928 124.0 3107 0.00002871 0.96921898
1929 135.0 2500.0 0.00005192 0.94547506
1930 95.0 2250.0 0.00006669 0.93073090
1931 450.0 2220.0 0.00006875 0.92869952
1932 1900.0 2200.0 0.00007015 0.92731057
1933 620.0 2124 0.00007580 0.92176745
1934 438.0 2010 0.00008520 0.91260180
1935 379.0 1900.0 0.00009550 0.90267461
1936 390.0 1793.0 0.00010686 0.89186090
1937 39.0 1700.0 0.00011795 0.88141701
1938 508.0 1616.0 0.00012909 0.87104951
1939 1525.0 1530.0 0.00014174 0.85941366
1940 185.0 1525.0 0.00014252 0.85870303
1941 2220.0 1516 0.00014393 0.85741403
1942 405.0 1108.0 0.00022921 0.78288283
1943 2250.0 1066.0 0.00024107 0.77300950
1944 273.0 1042.0 0.00024819 0.76713885
1945 220.0 1010.0 0.00025810 0.75903949
1946 134.0 980.0 0.00026784 0.75115148
1947 41.0 900.0 0.00029623 0.72861296
1948 42.5 860.0 0.00031190 0.71645396
1949 1010.0 845.0 0.00031805 0.71172957
1950 0.0 845.0 0.00031805 0.71172957
1951 0.0 690.0 0.00039248 0.65694080
1952 153.0 646.0 0.00041802 0.63911828
1953 2200.0 638.1 0.00042286 0.63579685
1954 44.0 620.0 0.00043426 0.62804058
1955 350.0 610.0 0.00044076 0.62366562
1956 1530.0 574.0 0.00046538 0.60736126
1957 1700.0 568.0 0.00046968 0.60455611
1958 690.0 545.0 0.00048676 0.59355879
1959 900.0 508.0 0.00051634 0.57500981
1960 81.0 450.0 0.00056888 0.54357857
1961 88.0 438.0 0.00058085 0.53668065
1962 115.0 405.0 0.00061608 0.51694116
1963 37.0 390.0 0.00063333 0.50757167
1964 33.0 390.0 0.00063333 0.50757167
1965 2500.0 388.0 0.00063569 0.50630265
1966 49.0 379.0 0.00064653 0.50053289
1967 82.0 370 0.00065770 0.49466411
1968 21.0 350.0 0.00068381 0.48125209
1969 180.0 273.0 0.00080546 0.42416082
1970 29.0 272.0 0.00080732 0.42335443
1971 545.0 220.0 0.00091790 0.37862759
1972 1616.0 200 0.00096967 0.35976232
1973 845.0 185.0 0.00101304 0.34489737
1974 58.0 180.0 0.00102850 0.33979374
1975 272.0 167.0 0.00107142 0.32614867
1976 388.0 153.0 0.00112272 0.31079640
1977 646.0 135.0 0.00119833 0.28992522
1978 167.0 134.0 0.00120291 0.28872460
1979 74.0 128 0.00123135 0.28142264
1980 45.0 124.0 0.00125129 0.27645763
1981 568.0 115.0 0.00129938 0.26498318
1982 390.0 112.0 0.00131651 0.26105950
1983 3200.0 100.9 0.00138552 0.24607195
1984 980.0 95.0 0.00142640 0.23777837
1985 112.0 88.0 0.00147946 0.22761099
1986 25.0 82.0 0.00152958 0.21858623
1987 574.0 81.0 0.00153840 0.21705225
1988 6.0 80 0.00154737 0.21550938
1989 845.0 75.0 0.00159457 0.20765621
1990 6.0 74.0 0.00160451 0.20605668
1991 14.0 58.0 0.00179291 0.17895899
1992 1793.0 49.0 0.00193278 0.16221719
1993 1042.0 45.0 0.00200659 0.15434129
1994 1108.0 44.0 0.00202645 0.15232482
1995 75.0 42.5 0.00205740 0.14926212
1996 100.9 41.0 0.00208987 0.14615186
1997 638.1 39.0 0.00213576 0.14192675
1998 4424.0 37.0 0.00218497 0.13760661
1999 3107 33.0 0.00229519 0.12865203
2000 1516 29.0 0.00242532 0.11921867
2001 2124 25.0 0.00258265 0.10921339
2002 3642 21.0 0.00277894 0.09850587
2003 200 14.0 0.00328875 0.07743492
2004 14 14 0.00328875 0.07743492
2005 128 6.0 0.00465051 0.04673244
2006 370 6.0 0.00465051 0.04673244
2007 80 0.0 0.00000000 0.00000000
2008 2010 0.0 0.00000000 0.00000000

x (media) 719.6
s2 (varianza) 864643.0
a 0.599
b 1,201.50

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
10

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.1
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.9

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 1872.40
 Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
20

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.05
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.95

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 2591.14

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
50

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.02
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.98

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 3572.06

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
100

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.01
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.99

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 4329.80
 Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
140

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.00714286
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.99285714

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 4701.28

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
200

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.005
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.995

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 5097.23

Tr
Si quiero conocer el caudal para
500

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

P exc = 1 / Tr 0.002
Pno exc = 1-P exc 0.998

x = f ( Pno
exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 6122.97
 f(x)
f(x)

0.00600000

0.00500000

0.00400000

0.00300000

0.00200000

0.00100000

0.00000000
-1000.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0
-0.00100000

F(x)
1.20000000

1.00000000

0.80000000

0.60000000

0.40000000

0.20000000

0.00000000
-1000.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0
-0.20000000

BONDAD DE AJUSTE

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x)

DATOS
Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 4424.0 0.012 0.000 0.055 0.030 0.005 0.009
2 3642 0.024 0.001 0.068 0.041 0.013 0.019
3 3200.0 0.035 0.004 0.078 0.050 0.023 0.028
4 3107 0.047 0.005 0.080 0.052 0.026 0.031
5 2500.0 0.059 0.028 0.100 0.071 0.056 0.055
6 2250.0 0.071 0.050 0.111 0.082 0.077 0.069
7 2220.0 0.082 0.053 0.112 0.083 0.080 0.071
8 2200.0 0.094 0.056 0.113 0.084 0.082 0.073
9 2124 0.106 0.065 0.117 0.088 0.090 0.078
10 2010 0.118 0.083 0.123 0.094 0.103 0.087
11 1900.0 0.129 0.102 0.129 0.101 0.118 0.097
12 1793.0 0.141 0.124 0.136 0.109 0.134 0.108
13 1700.0 0.153 0.146 0.143 0.116 0.150 0.119
14 1616.0 0.165 0.168 0.149 0.123 0.165 0.129
15 1530.0 0.176 0.192 0.156 0.131 0.183 0.141
16 1525.0 0.188 0.193 0.157 0.132 0.184 0.141
17 1516 0.200 0.196 0.158 0.133 0.186 0.143
18 1108.0 0.212 0.338 0.203 0.186 0.293 0.217
19 1066.0 0.224 0.355 0.209 0.193 0.307 0.227
20 1042.0 0.235 0.364 0.213 0.198 0.315 0.233
21 1010.0 0.247 0.377 0.218 0.204 0.326 0.241
22 980.0 0.259 0.390 0.223 0.210 0.336 0.249
23 900.0 0.271 0.423 0.237 0.228 0.365 0.271
24 860.0 0.282 0.440 0.245 0.237 0.380 0.284
25 845.0 0.294 0.446 0.248 0.241 0.386 0.288
26 845.0 0.306 0.446 0.248 0.241 0.386 0.288
27 690.0 0.318 0.513 0.285 0.287 0.448 0.343
28 646.0 0.329 0.532 0.297 0.303 0.467 0.361
29 638.1 0.341 0.535 0.300 0.306 0.471 0.364
30 620.0 0.353 0.543 0.305 0.313 0.478 0.372
31 610.0 0.365 0.547 0.309 0.317 0.483 0.376
32 574.0 0.376 0.562 0.321 0.332 0.499 0.393
33 568.0 0.388 0.565 0.323 0.335 0.501 0.395
34 545.0 0.400 0.574 0.331 0.345 0.512 0.406
35 508.0 0.412 0.590 0.345 0.363 0.529 0.425
36 450.0 0.424 0.614 0.370 0.395 0.555 0.456
37 438.0 0.435 0.619 0.376 0.402 0.561 0.463
38 405.0 0.447 0.632 0.393 0.423 0.576 0.483
39 390.0 0.459 0.639 0.401 0.433 0.583 0.492
40 390.0 0.471 0.639 0.401 0.433 0.583 0.492
41 388.0 0.482 0.639 0.402 0.434 0.584 0.494
42 379.0 0.494 0.643 0.407 0.440 0.588 0.499
43 370 0.506 0.647 0.412 0.447 0.593 0.505
44 350.0 0.518 0.655 0.424 0.461 0.602 0.519
45 273.0 0.529 0.685 0.478 0.527 0.638 0.576
46 272.0 0.541 0.685 0.479 0.528 0.639 0.577
47 220.0 0.553 0.704 0.526 0.583 0.664 0.621
48 200 0.565 0.712 0.547 0.607 0.673 0.640
49 185.0 0.576 0.717 0.564 0.626 0.680 0.655
50 180.0 0.588 0.719 0.570 0.632 0.682 0.660
51 167.0 0.600 0.724 0.586 0.650 0.688 0.674
52 153.0 0.612 0.729 0.605 0.670 0.695 0.689
53 135.0 0.624 0.735 0.632 0.697 0.703 0.710
54 134.0 0.635 0.736 0.633 0.699 0.704 0.711
55 128 0.647 0.738 0.643 0.708 0.707 0.719
56 124.0 0.659 0.739 0.649 0.715 0.708 0.724
57 115.0 0.671 0.742 0.665 0.730 0.713 0.735
58 112.0 0.682 0.743 0.670 0.735 0.714 0.739
59 100.9 0.694 0.747 0.691 0.754 0.719 0.754
60 95.0 0.706 0.749 0.702 0.765 0.722 0.762
61 88.0 0.718 0.752 0.717 0.778 0.725 0.772
62 82.0 0.729 0.754 0.730 0.790 0.728 0.781
63 81.0 0.741 0.754 0.732 0.792 0.728 0.783
64 80 0.753 0.754 0.735 0.794 0.729 0.784
65 75.0 0.765 0.756 0.746 0.804 0.731 0.792
66 74.0 0.776 0.756 0.748 0.806 0.731 0.794
67 58.0 0.788 0.762 0.790 0.839 0.739 0.821
68 49.0 0.800 0.765 0.815 0.858 0.743 0.838
69 45.0 0.812 0.766 0.828 0.867 0.744 0.846
70 44.0 0.824 0.766 0.831 0.869 0.745 0.848
71 42.5 0.835 0.767 0.836 0.872 0.746 0.851
72 41.0 0.847 0.767 0.841 0.876 0.746 0.854
73 39.0 0.859 0.768 0.847 0.880 0.747 0.858
74 37.0 0.871 0.769 0.854 0.885 0.748 0.862
75 33.0 0.882 0.770 0.868 0.894 0.750 0.871
76 29.0 0.894 0.771 0.883 0.903 0.752 0.881
77 25.0 0.906 0.772 0.898 0.912 0.753 0.891
78 21.0 0.918 0.774 0.914 0.921 0.755 0.901
79 14.0 0.929 0.776 0.944 0.937 0.758 0.923
80 14 0.941 0.776 0.944 0.937 0.758 0.923
81 6.0 0.953 0.779 0.980 0.955 0.762 0.953
82 6.0 0.965 0.779 0.980 0.955 0.762 0.953
83 0.0 0.976 0.781 0.999 0.968 0.764 1.000
84 0.0 0.988 0.781 0.999 0.968 0.764 1.000

Diferencia Delta D
Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
0.01173 0.04321 0.01850 0.00691 0.00258
0.02269 0.04451 0.01760 0.01030 0.00478
0.03147 0.04268 0.01466 0.01204 0.00707
0.04194 0.03333 0.00510 0.02089 0.01628
0.03106 0.04111 0.01206 0.00256 0.00430
0.02069 0.03998 0.01104 0.00619 0.00132
0.02904 0.02963 0.00073 0.00267 0.01105
0.03843 0.01882 0.01004 0.01245 0.02143
0.04040 0.01084 0.01788 0.01621 0.02765
0.03503 0.00518 0.02321 0.01456 0.03025
0.02726 0.00012 0.02807 0.01160 0.03209
0.01699 0.00499 0.03235 0.00719 0.03304
0.00707 0.01020 0.03690 0.00326 0.03436
0.00282 0.01554 0.04149 0.00057 0.03576
0.01527 0.02015 0.04518 0.00627 0.03588
0.00498 0.03148 0.05645 0.00443 0.04694
0.00412 0.04245 0.06732 0.01427 0.05741
0.12633 0.00871 0.02569 0.08168 0.00535
0.13124 0.01437 0.03008 0.08342 0.00346
0.12912 0.02248 0.03742 0.07958 0.00243
0.13036 0.02919 0.04304 0.07862 0.00610
0.13091 0.03600 0.04875 0.07723 0.00998
0.15251 0.03343 0.04290 0.09431 0.00080
0.15765 0.03734 0.04494 0.09760 0.00119
0.15226 0.04603 0.05289 0.09158 0.00585
0.14050 0.05779 0.06465 0.07982 0.01761
0.19507 0.03268 0.03030 0.13070 0.02541
0.20215 0.03192 0.02628 0.13773 0.03147
0.19376 0.04131 0.03507 0.12938 0.02303
0.18972 0.04751 0.03981 0.12549 0.01902
0.18222 0.05611 0.04758 0.11811 0.01163
0.18576 0.05590 0.04423 0.12226 0.01617
0.17653 0.06557 0.05336 0.11317 0.00721
0.17449 0.06907 0.05469 0.11173 0.00644
0.17826 0.06659 0.04849 0.11674 0.01323
0.19055 0.05326 0.02872 0.13166 0.03289
0.18372 0.05936 0.03338 0.12547 0.02803
0.18540 0.05453 0.02443 0.12911 0.03600
0.17969 0.05823 0.02617 0.12437 0.03360
0.16793 0.06999 0.03794 0.11261 0.02184
0.15697 0.08066 0.04834 0.10178 0.01134
0.14882 0.08738 0.05385 0.09425 0.00535
0.14066 0.09397 0.05922 0.08672 0.00055
0.13686 0.09370 0.05616 0.08438 0.00110
0.15509 0.05096 0.00203 0.10904 0.04643
0.14371 0.06192 0.01283 0.09775 0.03547
0.15154 0.02678 0.03008 0.11056 0.06843
0.14716 0.01755 0.04206 0.10822 0.07553
0.14087 0.01224 0.04925 0.10350 0.07863
0.13092 0.01803 0.04404 0.09408 0.07197
0.12385 0.01354 0.04989 0.08841 0.07385
0.11710 0.00650 0.05808 0.08318 0.07744
0.11171 0.00818 0.07361 0.07978 0.08655
0.10030 0.00203 0.06342 0.06848 0.07598
0.09064 0.00427 0.06123 0.05950 0.07152
0.08027 0.00949 0.05597 0.04958 0.06472
0.07164 0.00590 0.05923 0.04198 0.06443
 0.06092 0.01234 0.05260 0.03159 0.05659
0.05299 0.00342 0.06036 0.02494 0.05981
0.04325 0.00351 0.05933 0.01588 0.05634
0.03387 0.00074 0.06063 0.00731 0.05474
0.02415 0.00059 0.06037 0.00171 0.05200
0.01272 0.00893 0.05054 0.01302 0.04177
0.00130 0.01843 0.04073 0.02433 0.03155
0.00878 0.01860 0.03883 0.03382 0.02764
0.02021 0.02798 0.02906 0.04513 0.01747
0.02661 0.00130 0.05027 0.04965 0.03281
0.03539 0.01549 0.05789 0.05736 0.03778
0.04583 0.01604 0.05492 0.06733 0.03389
0.05727 0.00743 0.04537 0.07864 0.02415
0.06854 0.00047 0.03694 0.08973 0.01544
0.07981 0.00641 0.02852 0.10083 0.00679
0.09092 0.01154 0.02124 0.11170 0.00075
0.10202 0.01652 0.01397 0.12257 0.00819
0.11248 0.01425 0.01128 0.13255 0.01100
0.12294 0.01131 0.00864 0.14253 0.01334
0.13340 0.00767 0.00605 0.15251 0.01510
0.14387 0.00329 0.00348 0.16250 0.01615
0.15338 0.01500 0.00775 0.17117 0.00685
0.16514 0.00323 0.00402 0.18293 0.01861
0.17434 0.02749 0.00214 0.19117 0.00033
0.18611 0.01572 0.00962 0.20294 0.01144
0.19596 0.02241 0.00857 0.21207 0.02353
0.20772 0.01064 0.02034 0.22383 0.01176

0.20772 0.09397 0.07361 0.22383 0.08655

Rechazada Aceptada Aceptada Rechazada Aceptada
0.1484