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Decision Making and Concept

Selection
7.1 Introduction
Chapter 7

How can we make the right decision?

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Concept Generation & Selection Requirements for Selecting a Design

1) A set of design selection criteria

2) A set of alternatives believed to satisfy the set of criteria

3) A means to evaluate the design alternatives with respect

to each criterion

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Evaluate & Select Concept Stage in PDP

7.2 Decision Making

How can we make the right decision?

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Behavioral Aspects of Decision Making Challenges of Decision Making

 Behavioral psychology provides an understanding of the
influence of risk taking in individuals and teams.
 Making a decision is a stressful situation for most people
because there is no way to be certain about the information
about the past or the predictions of the future.
 This psychological stress arises from at least two sources:
 Decision makers are concerned about the material and social
losses that will result from either course of action that is chosen.
 They recognize that their reputations and self-esteem as
competent decision makers are at stake.
 Unconflicted adherence:
 Decide to continue with current action and ignore information about risk
of losses.
 Unconflicted change:
 Uncritically adopt whichever course of action is most strongly
recommended.
 Defensive avoidance:
 Evade conflict by procrastinating, shifting responsibility to someone else,
and remaining inattentive to corrective information.
 Hypervigilance:
 Search frantically for an immediate problem solution.
 Vigilance:
 Search painstakingly for relevant information that is assimilated in an
unbiased manner and appraised carefully before a decision is made.

All of the above except the last one are defective!

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List of Steps to Make a Good Decision Decision Theory

 The objectives of a decision must be established first.  Alternative courses of action can be denoted 𝑎1 , 𝑎2,…, 𝑎𝑛
 The objectives are classified as to importance.  States of nature are the environment of the decision model.
 Alternative actions are developed.  Outcome is the result of a combination of an action and a
 The alternatives are evaluated against the objectives. state of nature.
 The choice of the alternative that holds the best promise of  Objective is the statement of what the decision maker wants
achieving all of the objectives represents the tentative decision. to achieve.
 The tentative decision is explored for future possible adverse  Utility is the measure of satisfaction that the decision maker
consequences.
associates with each outcome.
 The effects of the final decision are controlled by taking other
 States of knowledge is the degree of certainty that can be
actions to prevent possible adverse consequences from
becoming problems and by making sure that the actions decided associated with the states of nature.
on are carried out.
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Decision Making Models Decision Tree for an R&D Project

 Decision under certainty:
 Each action results in a known outcome that will occur with a
probability of 1.
 Decision under uncertainty:
 Each state of nature has an assigned probability of occurrence.
 Decision under risk:
 Each action can result in two or more outcomes, but the
probabilities for the states of nature are unknown.
 Decision under conflict:
 The states of nature are replaced by courses of action
determined by an opponent who is trying to maximize his or her
objective function.
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Utility Theory Definitions Utility Functions

 Value is an attribute of an alternative that is implied by
choice.
 Preference is the statement of relative value in the eyes of
the decision maker.
 Utility is a measure of preference order for a particular user.
 Marginal utility: A key concept of utility theory is the
understanding of the nature of what is gained by adding one
more unit to the amount already possessed.

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Common Types of Utility Functions in

Engineering Design

7.3 Evaluation Process

What are the steps involved in concept generation and its

evaluation process?

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Concept Generation and Evaluation Shot Buddy Concept Generation

Adapted from J. Davis, J. Decker, J. Maresco, S. McBee, S. Phillips, and R. Quinn, “JSR Design
Final Report: Shot-Buddy,” unpublished, ENME 472, University of Maryland, May 2010.
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Design Selection Based on Absolute
Criteria
 Evaluation based on judgment of functional feasibility of
the design
 Concepts should be placed into one of the followings:
 Feasible
 Not Feasible
 Will Work
 Evaluation based on assessment of technology readiness
 Product design is not the appropriate place to do R&D.
 Evaluation based on go/no-go screening of the constraints
and threshold levels of engineering characteristics
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7.4 Using Models in Evaluations
How can models help the evaluation process?
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Role of Models in Design
 In conceptual design we use both iconic and symbolic
models.
 Simple mathematical models are used to help formalize a
concept and to provide data, not just opinions, to use in
decision evaluation tools.
 A proof-of-concept prototype is typically made by the end of
conceptual design.
 Ideally, a succession of models, some physical, others
rough sketches, are made to serve as learning tools until
reaching the final proof-of-concept model.
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Measurement Scale
 Rating a design parameter of several alternative designs is
a measurement process.
 Various scales of measurement:
 Nominal Scale – data defined by named categories
 Ordinal Scale – data is placed in rank order (1st, 2nd, … nth)
 Interval Scale – data arranged in numerical order without a
“zero” point
 Ratio Scale – data arranged on an interval scale
 Standard arithmetic operations are only valid for a ratio scale
 Addition and subtractions are valid on an interval scale
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Types of Models
 Models fall into three categories:
 An iconic model is a physical model that looks like the real
thing but is a scaled representation.
 Analog models are models that are based on an analogy, or
similarity, between different physical phenomena like using
electricity flow to simulate heat flow.
 Symbolic models are abstractions of the important
quantifiable components of a physical system that use
symbols to represent properties of the real system.
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Choosing the Right Model
 In conceptual design, the emphasis is on geometrical
modeling using multiple hand sketches supplemented with
quick physical prototypes.
 In embodiment design, where major emphasis is given
to establishing shape, dimensions, and tolerances, the level
of detail in mathematical and physical models increases.
 In detail design, more complex mathematical modeling
may be conducted to optimize some product
characteristic or to improve its robustness.
 A proof-of process prototype will be tested using the exact
materials and processes that will be used to manufacture
the product.
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Aids to Mathematical Modeling Building Mathematical Model

 Dimensional analysis:  There are four characteristics of mathematical models
 A useful tool in model building is dimensional analysis. consisting of two classes each:
 Steady state or Transient
 Scale Models:  Continuous media or Discrete events
 Scale models are often used in design because they can be  Deterministic or Probabilistic
made more quickly and at less cost.  Lumped or Distributed
 There are usually fewer dimensionless groups than there are
physical quantities in the problem, so the groups become the
real variables of the problem.

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Steps to Build a Mathematical Model Sketch of Key Model Building Factors

1) Determine problem statement
2) Define the boundaries of the model
3) Determine which physical laws are pertinent to the
problem and identify the data that is available to
support building the model
4) Identify assumptions
5) Construct the model
6) Perform computations and verify the model
7) Validate the model

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Geometric Modeling on Computer Finite Element Analysis

 Geometric modeling on the computer was the fastest-
changing area of engineering design in the late 20th
century.
 An aspect of CAD modeling that has grown in
importance is data associativity, the ability to share digital
design data with other applications such as finite element
analysis or numerical controlled machining without each
application having to translate or transfer the data.
 For more details on computer generation of solids and
creation of features in solid models, see Computer
Modeling at www.mhhe.com/dieter.
 Finite element modeling is divided into three phases:
 preprocessing
 computation
 post processing
 Even before entering the first phase, a careful engineer
will perform a preliminary analysis to define the problem.
 Questions to ask before entering the first phase:
 Is the physics of the problem known well enough?
 What is an approximate solution based on simple
methods of analysis?

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Preprocessing Phase Computation

 In the preprocessing phase the following actions are
taken:
 The geometry of the part is imported from the CAD model.
 Determine the division of the geometry into elements,
often called meshing.
 Determine how the structure is loaded and supported.
 Select the constitutive equation for describing the
material (linear, nonlinear, etc.) that relates displacement
to strain and then to stress.
 The FEA program renumbers the nodes in the mesh to
minimize computational resources.
 It generates a stiffness matrix for each element and
assembles the elements together so that continuity is
maintained to form the global matrix.
 Then the computer solves the massive matrix equation
for the displacement vector or whatever is the dependent
variable in the problem.

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Post Processing FEA in Machine Design

 In a stress analysis problem, post processing takes the
displacement vector and converts into strains, element by
element, and then, with the appropriate constitutive
equation, into a field of stress values.
 A finite element solution could easily contain thousands
of field values.
 Increasingly, FEA software is being combined with an
optimization package and used in iterative calculations to
optimize a critical dimension or shape.

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Simulation
 Design models are created to imitate the behavior of a
part or system under a particular set of conditions.

 When we exercise the model by inputting a series of

values to determine the behavior of the proposed design
under a stated set of conditions, we are performing a
simulation.
7.5 Pugh Chart
 A simulation model can also be used to understand an
existing system when data is not readily available. What is Pugh Chart?

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Pugh Chart Steps of Building the Pugh Chart

 A particularly useful method for identifying the most 1) Choose the criteria by which the concepts will be
promising design concepts among the alternatives evaluated
generated at is the Pugh chart. 2) Formulate the decision matrix
 Pugh’s method compares each concept relative to a 3) Clarify the design concepts
reference or datum concept and for each criterion 4) Choose the datum concept
determines whether the concept in question is better
5) Complete the matrix entries
than, poorer than, or about the same as the reference
concept. 6) Evaluate the ratings
 Pugh Chart is a relative comparison technique. 7) Establish a new datum and rerun the matrix
8) Examine the selected concept for improvement
opportunities

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Pugh Chart 1 for Shot-Buddy Example Pugh Chart 2 for Shot-Buddy Example

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Weighted Decision Matrix

 A decision matrix is a method of evaluating competing
concepts by ranking the design criteria with weighting
factors and scoring the degree to which each design
concept meets the criterion.

 To do this it is necessary to convert the values obtained

for different design criteria into a consistent set of values.
7.6 Weighted Decision Matrix
 The simplest way of dealing with design criteria
What is Weighted Decision Matrix? expressed in a variety of ways is to use a point scale.

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Evaluation Scheme for Design Systematic Methods for Determining

Alternatives or Objectives Weighted Factors
 Direct Assignment:
 This method is only recommended for design teams where
there are many years of experience designing the same
product line.
 Objective Tree:
 This method relies on some experience with the
importance of the criteria in the design process.
 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP):
 This method is the least arbitrary method for determining
weighting factors.

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Weighted Decision Matrix:

Objective Tree: Design of a Crane Hook Steel Crane Hook

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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

 The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a problem-solving
methodology for making a choice from among a set of
alternatives when the selection criteria represent multiple
objectives, have a natural hierarchical structure, or consist of
qualitative and quantitative measurements.

 AHP was developed by Saaty.

7.7 Analytical Hierarchy
Process(AHP)
 AHP is a decision analysis tool that is used throughout a
What is AHP? number of fields in which the selection criteria used for
evaluating competing solutions that do not have exact,
calculable outcomes.
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AHP’s Ratings for Pairwise Comparison

of Selection Criteria Example: Design of Crane Hook

The ratings of even numbers (2, 4, 6, 8) are used when the decision maker
needs to compromise between two positions in the table.
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AHP Process for Determining Criteria Consistency Check Process for AHP
Weights Comparison Matrix( C )
 The process is:  Calculate weighted sum vector, {Ws} = [C] × {W}
 Calculate consistency vector, {Cons} = {Ws}/{W}
1) Complete criteria comparison matrix [C] using 1–9 ratings  Estimate λ as the average of values in {Cons}
described in Table 7.8.
 Evaluate consistency index, CI = (λ − n)/(n − 1)
 Calculate consistency ratio, CR = CI/RI
2) Normalize the matrix [C] to give [NormC].
 If CR < 0.1 the {W} is considered to be valid; otherwise
3) Average row values. This is the criteria weight vector {W}.
adjust [C] entries and repeat.

4) Perform a consistency check on [C] as described in Table  RI Values are given in Table 7.11.
7.10.

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Consistency Check for {W} for Crane AHP’s Ratings for Pairwise Comparison
Hook of Design Alternatives

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Determining Ratings for Design Determine the Best of Design

Alternatives with Respect to a Criterion Alternatives
 The process is summarized as:  The process is summarized as:
1) Complete comparison matrix [C] using 1–9 ratings of  Compose Final Rating Matrix [FRating].
Table 7.12 to evaluate pairs of competing design  Calculate [FRating]{W}={Alternative Value} by first taking
alternatives. the transpose of [FRating].
2) Normalize the matrix [NormC].  Select the alternative with the highest rating relative to
3) Average row values—This is the vector priority {Pi} of design others.
alternative ratings.
4) Perform a consistency check on [C].

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Design Alternative Ratings for Material

Cost Final Rating Matrix

The best solution is

the riveted plate
design option.

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