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PAKSITAN INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

ETS-620: Quantitative Foundations for Econometrics


Final Examination- Fall 2017
Instructor: Dr. Amna Urooj/Nadia Hassan Time Allowed: 3hrs.
Program: MPhil/PhD Maximum Marks: 50

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Note: Attempt all questions FOUR questions consists of total 60 marks; however, you will be marked
out of 40.
Part-I
Explain if each of any five of the following statement is True/False. No credit without proper
explanation. (2)
1. All models simplify the real world and are ALWAYS wrong, but it is necessary to work with
obviously WRONG models.
2. In Islamabad, 50% people support the Government’s reforms in General Sales tax. A sample
of 400 businessmen from all businessmen in Islamabad is taken. According to Law of large
number, about half of the sample should favour the GST reforms.
3. OUTCOMES of the random draws are also random.
4. When the events A and B are independent, than P(A|B)=P(A)
5. Suppose you have studied only first three of the six chapters in ‘probability and statistics’ for
final exam. Your chance of having an A grade in exam that contains questions from all six
chapters has binomial distribution.
6. The Central Limit Theorem basically states that when we have large sample of a
random variable, that is approximately Normal.
Part-II
Following question carry 50 marks in total you are supposed to attempt questions that sum upto
maximum 40 marks.
1. Human blood is grouped into four types. The percentages of patients at Emergency
ward with each type are listed as: O 43%, A 40%, B 12%, AB 5%. If we choose one
person at random. Find the probability that this person i) Has type A or O, ii) Does not
have type B or A. (2+2)
2. Hundred students were surveyed about their preference to participate in a cricket match or
speech competition. The following two-way table displays data for the sample of students who
responded to the survey. Find the probability that if a randomly selected male student
prefers speech competition research? (3)

Preference Male Female TOTAL


Cricket Match 36 20 56
Speech Competition 10 26 36
No preference 2 6 8
Total 48 52 100
3. To qualify for internship a shortlisting test is conducted. In the test there are 5 questions
and 4 choices for each question (a, b, c, d). Amir has not studied for the quiz at all, and
decides to randomly guess the answers. What is the probability that he gets more than
half of questions right? (4)
4. Suppose that in each Olympic Event, the Pakistani Team has 10% chance of winning
Gold Medal, 20% chances of winning Silver Medal, 30% chances of winning Bronze
Medal, and 40% chances of not winning any medal. Suppose that the Pakistani Team
enters 10 Olympic Events. Calculate the probabilities of the following events 1 Gold, 2
Silver, 3 Bronze (3)
5. Use EXCEL simulations to generate Multinomial from the information of Q4 for
increasing sample i.e. N 50, 100 and 500. (5)
6. Show that the probability of outcomes in largest sample of Q4 are roughly matched to
the observed frequencies of the outcomes in Q5. (5)
7. A very skilled court stenographer makes one typographical error (typo) per hour on
average find the number of errors in an hour for which probability is as low as 1 typing
error in 100. (4)
8. Let 𝑋𝑖~𝑁( µ, 𝜎), find E(X) and VAR(X) (4+4)
9. Let S is sum of RV X1,X2,…,Xn. Calculate the moment generating function of S, MS(θ)
when X are independently distributed. (5)
10. Calculate the MS(θ) when X are independent and identically distributed. (4)
11. Let 𝑋𝑖~𝐵𝑖( 𝑛, 𝑝) find CGF of X. (5)
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