RELIABILITY ISSUES DUE TO

HIGH PENETRATION OF
RENEWABLES

Alex Lee
Lead Engineer, Operations Planning

EUCI
JULY 17, 2018
OVERVIEW

• Growth of Renewables

• Risks Associated with Increasing Renewables

• Uncertainties
• Inertia
• Weak System
• Disturbance Response

• Other Physical Impacts

• Market Impacts
 Wind Generation Capacity – January 2018

• Record Output: 17,541 MW (Feb. 19, 2018 10:05 pm)

• Record Penetration: 54% of 28,416 MW Load (Oct. 27, 2017 4 am)

• Texas continues to lead U.S. in wind capacity.

• Steady growth continues with some spikes.
• Largest annual increase: 3,294 MW in 2015
(A close second: 3,220 MW in 2008)

• Incentives, uncertainty and other factors affect

construction decisions and schedules.
• Not all planned projects will get built.

Future outcomes uncertain

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 Solar Generation Capacity – January 2018

• Utility Scale only.

• Exponential growth.

• Incentives, uncertainty and other factors affect

construction decisions and schedules.
• Not all planned projects will get built.

Future outcomes uncertain

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 Changing Resource Mix – Installed Capacity

ERCOT Installed Capacity (1999) ERCOT Installed Capacity (2018)

Wind, 160, <1% Solar, 948, 1%
Nuclear
Gas CT/IC 5,268
3,150 Nuclear 5%
5% 4,982
8% Wind
Coal
20,573
16,700
21%
17%
Coal
16,962
Gas CT/IC
29%
6,521
7%
Gas Steam
30,553 Gas Steam
52% Gas CC 12,297
Gas CC
2,867 12%
35,976
5% 36%

*as of Feb. 2018

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 Risk 1: Uncertainties
• Demand uncertainty
• Wind generation uncertainty. Solar uncertainty is omitted
• Generation scheduling uncertainty due to outages, portfolio, etc.
(excluding renewables)

2017 Annual Average Uncertainties in ERCOT

1,600
1,419 Average Actual Demand = 40.8 GW
1,400

1,200
1,041 980
1,000
MWh

800 682
600 484
389
400

200

0
Load Forecast Wind Forecast Generation Scheduling
Day-Ahead at 14:30 Hour-Ahead

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 Renewable Forecasts

• Wind Forecast
– Two vendors, second vendor was added in 2018
– 168-hour rolling forecast
– hourly and 5-minute resolutions
– updated every hour and every 5-minute
respectively
– for each Resource

• Solar Forecast
– Single vendor
– 168-hour rolling forecast
– hourly resolution
– updated every hour
– for each Resource
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 Wind Forecast Improvements

• Included additional operating limits (wind speed, temperature, etc. cut-

offs) in wind forecast algorithm

• Enhanced monitoring especially during icing events to allow for forecast

adjustments and improvements of telemetry from wind units

• Secondary wind forecast provider

• Intra-hour wind forecast

• Extreme weather and “tail events” wind forecasts

– Especially for potential icing and over-speed events

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 Wind Forecast Error
• ERCOT continues to refine renewable resource output forecasting
Day Ahead Wind Forecast Performance
9.00%
YEARLY AVG MEAN ABSOLUTE %ERROR
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
8.51%

8.32%

8.29%
5.00%

6.24%
4.00%

5.80%
5.63%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hour Ahead Wind Forecast Performance

6.0%
YEARLY AVG MEAN ABSOLUTE %ERROR

5.0%

4.0%
5.6%

5.3%

5.3%

3.0%

4.0%

3.8%
3.7%
2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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 Frequency Control Performance
Wind Installation Capacity (MW) Monthly CPS1 Linear (Monthly CPS1 )
20000 200

18000 190

16000 180
Wind Installed Capacity (MW)

14000 170

12000 160

CPS1
10000 150

8000 140

6000 130

4000 120

2000 110

0 100
Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17
Jan-11

Oct-11
Jan-12

Oct-12
Jan-13

Oct-13
Jan-14

Oct-14
Jan-15

Oct-15
Jan-16

Oct-16
Jan-17
• Control Performance Standard (CPS1) is the NERC requirement which
quantifies how well the frequency stayed around the target frequency.
Maximum score is 200% and shall be at least 100% to be compliant.
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 Ancillary Services Regulation

• Load and generation are constantly changing:

– Daily load patterns
– Instantaneous load variation
– Changes in variable generation output
– Generators tripping offline Responsive
Ancillary Services are procured in the Day-Ahead Market to
ensure sufficient resource capacity is reserved which can be
deployed in a timely manner to restore the balance between
the load and generation.
Ancillary Services Products
• Regulation Service
̶ ERCOT sends signal every four seconds to increase
or decrease output to the generators providing Non-Spin 2000 MW
Regulation Actual Error
Demand
• Responsive Reserve Service
̶ Capacity from generators or load resources that is Forecasted
Demand
readily available to respond to frequency events
• Non-Spin Reserve Service
̶ Capacity that can be started in 10 or 30 minutes to
cover forecast errors or ramps

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 Proposed Future Ancillary Services Framework
Current Proposed
Regulation Up Regulation Up
Fast-Responding Regulation Up Fast-Responding Regulation Up
Mostly unchanged
Regulation Down Regulation Down
Fast-Responding Regulation Down Fast-Responding Regulation Down

Fast Frequency Response 1 59.8 Hz, Limited duration

Fast Frequency Response 2 59.7 Hz, Longer duration
Responsive Primary Frequency Response

Contingency Reserves 1 SCED-dispatched

Contingency Reserves 2 Manually dispatched

Supplemental Reserves 1 SCED-dispatched

Non-Spin
Supplemental Reserves 2 Manually dispatched

Synchronous Inertial Response Ongoing development

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 Risk 2: Inertia
• Kinetic Energy stored in synchronous machines
Range of Inertia Constant by Generator Type In ERCOT

Nuclear
Coal
Combustion Turbine
Gas Steam
Combined Cycle
Hydro
Reciprocating Engine
Solar PV
No Inertia
Wind
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Inertia Constant (seconds)

• Replacing 1GW of Coal (Inertia Constant = 3) with Wind drops inertia by

3GW·s
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 Inertial Response and Critical Inertia

Load Resources Respond within ~0.5 second

59.7

Automatic Frim Load Drop

59.3

• Critical Inertia is the minimum inertia level that will provide sufficient time
for Load Resources to respond before the Automatic Firm Load is
triggered. Currently, about 100 GW·s
• The lowest inertia ERCOT experienced is 130 GW·s (Oct. 27, 2017)
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 Potential Future Impacts
• ERCOT could reach the Critical Inertia of 100GW·s during low load high
wind days as early as in 2020
– May need to bring conventional generators online to increase inertia

• Theoretical methods to lower the Critical Inertia:

a. Shorten the response time of the Load Resources
b. Increase the trigger frequency of the Load Resources
c. Decrease the trigger frequency of the Automatic Firm Load Drop
d. Reduce the largest simultaneous generation trip

b
59.7 Load Resources Respond within ~0.5 second

59.3 Automatic Frim Load Drop

c
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 Risk 3: System Strength
• Large reactive power losses due to geographical separation between
renewables and load centers
– Increasing need of static reactive devices to maintain acceptable
voltage response

Panhandle: 20%
4,196 MW

West: 55% North: 5%

11,836 MW 1,139 MW

South: 8%
1,628 MW

As of April 1st, 2018

Coast: 12% Source: AWS Truepower and National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2,613 MW
16

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 Weak System: Panhandle Area
• Issue
– No conventional generation, very little load
– Far from rest of the system (synchronous machines)
– Dynamics dominated by power electronics (wind plants, static VAR
compensators)
– A large amount of wind units.

• Requires continued evaluation of dynamic stability such as Undamped

Oscillations, Angular Instability, Voltage Collapse, etc.

• Balance transmission upgrades between synchronous condensers and

other upgrades i.e. new circuits

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 Transmission Improvements in Panhandle
• Completed in 2018

• Address export capacity for

growing wind resources 1
and weak grid conditions

Map Transmission
Index Improvement
3 2
1 Alibates Synchronous
Condenser
In service: Feb. 19
2 Tule Canyon Synchronous
Condenser
In service: April 6
3 Alibates-AJ Swope-Windmill
Ogalalla-Tule Canyon 345 kV
Circuit Addition
In service: March 1

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 Risk 4: Disturbance Response
• Introduction of new technology requires continued evaluation of
performance and improvements

• Disturbance response is difficult to evaluate under normal operation and

involves learning process through post-event analysis

• California Blue Cut Fire on August 16, 2016

– Instantaneous trip based on frequency
– Slow output restoration following the momentary cessation

• South Australia Blackout on September 28, 2016

– Response to multiple disturbances within minutes

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 Other Physical Impacts
• Increase Ramping Requirements
• Increase Transmission
• Increase Retirement of Firm Capacity, especially coal
• Favor flexible supply, demand, and storage
• In future, potentially increase Total Capacity and Reserves
Requirements
900
MonthlyMonthly
AverageAverage Estimated
Estimated Curtailments
Wind Curtailments
800

700

600

500
MWh
400

300

200

100

0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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 Market Impacts
• Increase Price Volatility
• Change Temporal and Geographical Price Pattern
• Suppress Average Energy Price
• In future, potentially increase Ancillary Service Prices

Average Annual Energy Price (Load-Weighted) Average Annual Ancillary Service Prices
60 5 16
55.2
50.8 4.5 14
50
4
12
40.8 3.5
40 38.9
34.1 3 10
$/MMBtu
32.5
$/MWh

$/MWh
30.2 28.4
30 26.5 26.6 26.6 2.5 8
26.1 24.6
23.5 2 6
20
1.5
4
1
10
0.5 2

0 0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Responsive Nonspin Reg-Up Reg-Down
Day-Ahead Real-Time Natural Gas 2014 2015 2016 2017

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 Potential Impacts In 2030

Scenarios by Energy Use

• 2016 Baseline: 16% Wind & 1% Solar

• Wind: 30% Wind & 10% Solar

• Balanced: 20% Wind & 20% Solar

• Solar: 16% Wind & 30% Solar

Source: Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector
Decision Making. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. May 16th, 2018.

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 Q&A

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