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October 21, 2010 – Wednesday’s Rebound Does Not Alter My Markets Outlook
The yield on the 10-Year note is between my monthly pivot at 2.555 and my quarterly and
semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold is trading around my monthly pivot at $1343.7
between my quarterly value level at $1306.4 and weekly risky level at $1373.6. Crude oil is just
above my weekly pivot at $82.38 with semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and
$84.74. The euro is trying to rally to this week’s risky level at 1.4074. The major equity averages
remain overbought with overhead risky levels. For the Dow my weekly risky level is 11,229, my
annual risky level is 11,235, and my semiannual risky level is 11,296. I answer readers’
questions on the Dow Theory Buy Signal. I comment on the Fed’s Beige Book.
10-Year Note – (2.475) Weekly, annual and annual value levels are 2.620, 2.813 and 2.999 with
monthly and daily pivots at 2.555 and 2.539, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and
2.249.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($82.54) My annual value level is $77.05 with daily and weekly pivots at $81.41
and $82.38, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.
Daily Dow: (11,108) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,857, 10,558,
10,379 and 8,523 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 11,132, 11,229, 11,235,
11,290 and 11,296. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01.