This chapter discusses decline-curve methods for estimating ultimate gas recoveries and

predicting performance from the analysis of long-term gas-production data either from
individual wells or from entire fields. We begin with conventional analysis techniques first
presented by Arps. Theses conventional techniques include equations for exponential,
harmonic, and hyperbolic decline. Next, we introduce production decline type curves and
illustrate their application to the analysis of gas-production data and the estimation of
formation properties. We also show how decline types curves can help predict well or field
performance. All analysis techniques are illustrated with examples.

Introduction to Decline-Curve Analysis

The basis of decline-curve analysis is to the match past production performance histories or
trends (i.e., actual production rate /time data) with a “model”. Assuming that future
production continues to follow the past trend, we can use these models to estimate original
gas in place and to predict ultimate gas reserves at some future reservoir abandonment
pressure or economic production rate. Or, we can determine the remaining productive life
of a well or the entire field. In addition, we can estimate the individual well flowing
characteristics, such as formation permeability and skin factor, with decline-type curve
analysis techniques. Decline-curve methods, however, are applicable to individual wells or
an entire field.

Decline-curve analysis techniques offer an alternative to volumetric and material- balanced

methods and history matching with reservoir simulation for estimating original gas in place
and gas reserves. Application of decline-curve analysis techniques to gas reservoirs is most
appropriate when more conventional volumetric or material-balanced methods are not
accurate or when sufficient data are not available to justify complex reservoir simulation.
For example, material-balance methods require estimates of stabilized shut-in bottomhole
pressures (BHP's); however in low-permeability reservoirs where long times are needed for
stabilization, accurate shut-in BHP's often are not available.

Unlike volumetric methods that can be used early in the productive life of a reservoir,
decline-curve analysis cannot be applied until some development has occurred and a
production trend is established. An advantage of decline-curve analysis and material
balance calculations is that these methods estimate only the gas volumes that are in pressure
communication with and may ultimately be recovered by the producing wells. Volumetric
estimates of gas in place and reserves, however, are based on the total gas volume in place,
part of which may be unrecoverable with the existing wells because of unidentified
reservoir discontinuities or heterogeneities.

Again, we emphasize that the basis of decline-curve analysis for estimating gas in place and
reserves at some future abandonment condition is the assumption that future performance
can be modeled with past history. Any changes in field development strategies or
production operation practices could change the future performance of a well and
significantly affect reserve estimates from decline-curve techniques. For example, infield
development wells could reduce the current drainage area and subsequent ultimate gas
reserves of existing wells, or proration schedules set by gas regulatory agencies may
require some wells to be shut in peri-odically.

Conventional Analysis Techniques

Early attempts at decline-curve analysis sought to find plotting techniques or functions that
would linearize the production history. Because linear functions are simple to manipulate
mathematically or graphically, the future performance could then be estimated if we
assumed that the production trend remained linear for the remaining life of the well or
reservoir. The most common conventional, decline-curve analysis technique is a linear
semilog decline curve, sometimes called exponential or constant-percentage decline.
Subsequent work, however, showed that the production performance of all wells cannot be
modeled with exponential decline. Arps recognized that the decline characteristics also
could be harmonic or hyperbolic.

Most conventional decline-curve analysis is based on Arps empirical rate/time decline

equation.

Where Di=-dq(t)/dt/q(t)=initial decline rate, days -1. Note that the units of gas flow rate,
time, and initial decline rate in Eq. 9.1 must be consistent.

Depending on the value of decline exponent, b, Eq. 9.1 has three different forms. These
three forms of decline exponential, harmonic, hyperbolic-have a different shape on
Cartesian and semilog graphs of gas production rate vs. time and gas production rate vs.
cumulative gas production. Consequently, these curve shape can help identify the type of
decline for a well and, if the trend is linear, extrapolate the trend graphically or
mathematically to some future point.

Eq. 9.1. is based on four important and widely violated assumptions.

1. The equation assumes that the well analyzed is produced at constant BHP. If the BHP
changes, the character of the well's decline changes.

2. It assumes that the well analyzed is producing from an unchanging drainage area (i.e.,
fixed size) with no-flow boundaries. If the size of the drainage area changes ( e.g., from
relative changes in reservoir rates), the character of the well's decline changes. If, for
example, water is entering the well's drainage area the character of the well's decline may
change suddenly, abruptly, and negatively.
3. The equation assumes that the well analyzed has constant permeability and skin factor. If
permeability decreases as pore pressure decreases,, or if skin factor changes because of
changing damage or deliberate simulation, the character of the well's decline changes.

4. If must be applied only to boundary –dominated (stabilized) flow data if we want to

predict future performance of even limited duration. If the data “fit” with a decline curve
are transient, there is simply no basis for predicting long-termed performance. Until all the
boundaries of the drainage area (or reservoir) have influenced the well's decline
characteristic, predictions of the long-term decline rate are not unique and, excepted by
sheer accident, are incorrect.

Figs. 9.1 through 9.4 show typical responses for exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic
declines. Because of their characteristic shapes, these plots can be used as a diagnostic tool
to determine the type of decline before any calculations are made. We elaborate on the
different curves shape in the following sections. In addition, we illustrate the analysis of
gas-well production data using conventional techniques.

9.3.1 Exponential Decline. Exponential Decline, sometimes called constant-percentage

decline, is characterized by a decrease in production rate per unit of time that is
proportional to the production rate. The Exponential decline equation can be derived from
Eq.9.1 . When b=0, Eq. 9.1 takes the special from (which must be derived with a limiting
process as b →0).

Taking the natural logarithm (ln) of both sides of Eq. 9.2 gives

Witch, after rearranging, gives

Because the natural logarithm is related to the logarithm to the base 10 (log) by ln x =2.303
log (x), we can rewrite Eq. 9.4 in terms of the log function as

The form of Eq. 9.5 suggest that a plot of log gas flow rate, q(t), vs t will be a straight line
with a slope –Di/2.303 and an intercept log (qi). Fig 9.2 shows the linear relationship on
semilog coordinates. If the production data exhibit linear behavior on this semilog plot, we
can use Eq. 9.5 to calculate Di from the slope and qi from the intercept. After calculating the
initial decline rate and the initial gas flow rate, we can use Eq. 9.2 to extrapolate the
production trend into the future to some economic limit. From this extrapolation, we can
estimate gas reserves and the time at which the economic limit will be reached
The curve of rate vs cumulative production for exponential decline will be linear on a
Cartesian graph, as the following derivation indicates. If we integrate Eq. 9.2 from initial
time to time t, we obtain

The cumulative gas production is

Rearranging yields

Combining Eqs .9.2. and 9.8, we can write the cumulative production relation in terms of
rate,

Rearranging and solving for production rate, q(t), gives

Eq. 9.10 suggest that a plot of q(t) vs Gp(t) will yield a straight line of slope –D i and
intercept qi. Fig 9.3 illustrates this type of plot.

9.3.2 Harmonic Decline. When b=1, the decline is said to be harmonic, and the general
decline equation given by Eq. 9.1 reduces to
Taking logarithms to the base 10 of both sides of Eq. 9.11 yields

The form of Eq. 9.12 suggest that q(t) is a linear function of (1+D it) on log-log graph paper
and will exhibit a straight line with a slope -1 and an intercept of log ( qi). To predict future
performance of wells exhibiting harmonic decline behavior, we must assume values of D i
until a plot of log [q(t)] vs. log (1+Dit) is a straight line with a slope of -1. This calculation
procedure requires either prior knowledge of the decline behavior of the well or a trial-and-
error procedure to choose the correct initial decline rate, D i. To use a rate/ cumulative
production plot for harmonic decline, we must integrate Eq. 9.11 with respect to time to
obtain a relationship for cumulative production.

Substituting the rate from Eq. 9.12 into Eq. 9.14, we obtain the rate/cumulative production
relationship for harmonic decline,

Or, in terms of production rate,

The form of Eq. 9.16 suggest that a plot of log q(t) vs Gp (t) will be linear with a slope of –
(Di/2.303 qi) and an intercept of log (qi). This is a much simpler method of calculating the
decline rate for harmonic decline than the rate /time plot because we can make a direct plot
without prior knowledge of Di.

9.3.3 Hyperbolic Decline. When 0<b<1, the decline is hyperbolic, and the rate behavior is
described by
Taking the logarithm of both sides of Eq. 9.1 and rearranging yields

The form of Eq. 9.17 suggest that, if rate/time data can be modeled with the hyperbolic
equation, then a log-log plot of q(t) vs. (1+bD it) will exhibit a straight line with slope of 1/b
and an intercept of log (qi). To analyze hyperbolic decline data, however, requires that we
have prior estimates of b and Di or that we use an iterative process to estimate the values of
b and Di that result in a straight line.

The cumulative production/ time relationship is obtained by integrating Eq. 9.1

Or after integrating and rearranging,

If we substitute into Eq. 9.19 and rearrange, we can write

Substituting Eq.9.1 into Eq, 9.20 yields an expression for cumulative gas production in
terms of gas flow rate during hyperbolic decline

As Figs. 9.1 through 9.4 show, hyperbolic decline never has a simple straight-line
relationship for either rate/time or rate/cumulative production plots on any coordinate
system. Consequently, the most convenient way to obtain a straight line is to use special
graph paper developed for several values of b. Arps used q/(dq/dt) vs t to estimate the
coefficients b and Di. Although this plotting technique should give acceptable results, field
rate data generally yield very poor derivatives, which makes this method difficult to apply
in practical analysis of production data.

Example 9.1 – Estimating Future Performance of Gas Well With Conventional

Decline –Curve Analysis Techniques. Use the gas- production flow rate and cumulative
production history in Table 9.1 to predict rate behavior 15 years into the future. Assuming
that the economic limit for this well is 30 Mscf/ D, estimate the ultimate recovery and total
productive life of the well using Arps conventional analysis techniques.

Solution

1.- Because we do not know which decline equation best models the past production
performance, we construct the rate/time and rate/cumulative production plots in Figs. 9.5
through 9.8 to examine the production characteristics.

2.- Examination of the curves in Figs. 9.5 through 9.8 does not show conclusively that the
decline is exponential, harmonic, or hyperbolic. Note that not only are semilog rate/time
and the Cartesian rate/cumulative production plots linear (indicative of exponential
decline), but also the semilog rate/cumulative production plot is linear (indicative of
harmonic decline). Consequently, we will analyze this example using both exponential and
harmonic decline methods.

Exponential Decline Analysis.

1.- The slope of the semilog rate/time plot (determined with a least-squares fit of the data )
is

The initial decline rate is

Where

2.- The intercept of the semilog rate/time plot (determined with a least-square fit of the
data) is
Which equivalent to the log of the initial rate qi, where qi=102.58=380.2 Mscf/D.

3.- We can now substitute qi and Di into Eq. 9.2 to get a particular decline equation for this
well:

With time in days, or

With time in years. Note that time is counted from t=0, so to extrapolate for the next 15
years, we must start at t=16 years. The calculated future rate performance in Table 9.2 is
calculated with the decline equation from Step 3.

4.- Recall that we assumed an economic limit of 30 Mscf/D for this well, so we can
substitute that rate into the particular rate/time relationship for this well (Step 3) to find the
total productive life of the well.
Or, solving for time,
5.- We can use to equation derived for the rate/cumulative production behavior for
exponential decline (Eq. 9.10 ) to calculate the ultimate recovery when the economic limit
is reached.

We know that therefore

With the assumption that the remaining production history of this well can be modeled with
exponential decline, the ultimate recovery from this well at an economic limit of 30Mscf /D
is

Harmonic Decline Analysis

1.- First, we calculate qi from intercept of the semilog rate/cumulative production plot.
From a least-squares fit, we estimate log (qi)=2.61, or

2.- The slope (determined with a least-squares fit of the data ) of the semilog
rate/cumulative production plot is -0.0005478. For cumulative production (in MMscf), the
slope of the line on a semilog rate/cumulative production plot equals.

Substituting for qi gives

3.- We can now substitute qi and Di into Eqs 9.11 and 9.12 to obtain specific rate/time and
rate/cumulative production decline equations, respectively, for this well. The rate /time
relationship is

With time in years, or

With time in years. For time measured in days, gas flow rate (in Mscf/D), and cumulative
production (in Mscf), the rate/cumulative production relationships is