RESERVOIR PERFORMANCE AND PREDICTION

Prof. T. Kumar
Dept. of Petroleum Engg.
IIT(ISM) Dhanbad 826004

1. Introduction to Reservoir Performance Predictions by

Simulation Approach
A reservoir study concerns the factors governing the behaviour
of a petroleum reservoir, the end result of which is a recommended
operating program which will yield the maximum net income from
the property.
Complete reservoir studies usually require months, or even
years to complete, depending on the complexity of the reservoir and
the thoroughness of the study. It should be emphasized that a
thorough reservoir study cannot be completed in a few days or a few
weeks.
So-called "thumb-nail" reservoir studies, requiring only a few
days or a few weeks to complete, are often made, but these studies
are of value only to indicate trends in reservoir behaviour, or to
determine the need for a full-scale study.

2. Parts of reservoir study

Stated broadly, a reservoir study is comprised of three basic parts:
(1) Matching past behaviour,
(2) Predicting future behaviour under various possible operating
programs (various fluid withdrawal rates, water injection, gas
injection), and
(3) Recommending the best overall operating plan for the reservoir.
3. History matching

The first step in any reservoir study after the data have been
assembled is the matching of past behaviour. Referring to Figure 1,
the solid lines represent the actual pressure-production and gas-oil
ratio history of the reservoir.

If a reliable reservoir study is to be made the amount of past

production from the reservoir must be substantial. The exact amount
of past history which has to be accumulated before a reservoir study
can be considered reliable is difficult to establish due to the many
variable factors involved.

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 However, a rule of thumb which many practicing reservoir
engineers use is that it is safe to predict ahead the same number of
years for which past production history is available. In other words,
if a reservoir has been producing for 10 years then it should be safe
to predict ahead for 10 additional years. As more and more data are
accumulated the accuracy of reservoir predictions will normally
increase.

4. Predicting future performance

Starting at a time when N, = 0, and using the data which have been
accumulated, a series of reservoir performance predictions are made.
No attention at all is paid to the actual reservoir history. The reservoir
performance predictions are made to cover the time from original
production to the current data.
These data, the "predicted" performance over the past
producing history of the reservoir are then plotted on Figure 1, which
also shows the actual production history.
A typical plot is shown by the dashed lines in Figure 1. In the
illustration, the calculated reservoir performance does not match the
actual reservoir performance. This is often the result of the first
attempt.
It can be seen from Figure 1 that if future predictions of
reservoir behaviour had begun immediately, in all probability the
predicted future behaviour would not have matched the actual future
behaviour. If the predicted past behaviour does not match the actual
past behaviour, there is no basis for believing that the predicted
future behaviour will match the future actual behaviour.

3
I. PERFORMANCE PREDICTION OF DEPLETION DRIVE
RESERVOIRS
Two problems are faced by the reservoir engineers:
(1) The amount of oil and gas which will ultimately be recovered,
and
(2) The rate at which this oil and gas will be recovered.
Both of these factors are directly related to the forces in the
reservoir which will contribute to the expulsion of the oil from the
reservoir. Depletion drive reservoir mechanism may also be referred
to as solution gas drive or internal gas drive. This recovery
mechanism is a result of gas liberation from solution in the reservoir
oil, with subsequent expansion and expulsion of the oil.
These reservoirs have no initial free gas cap and no active water
drive. Stratigraphic trap reservoirs are often depletion drive
reservoirs, due to the nature of the trap, which precludes the presence
of a large aquifer underlying the oil zone.

Characteristics of a depletion drive reservoir:

1. Rapid pressure decline due to absence of external supply of
energy.
2. Water free oil production due to absence of active water drive.
3. Rapidly increasing gas oil ratio from all walls.
4. Low ultimate oil recovery: Oil production by depletion drive is
usually the least efficient recovery method. This is a direct
result of the formation of gas saturation throughout the
reservoir.

4
5. Ultimate recovery from depletion drive reservoirs may vary
from less than 5 per cent to 25 percent. The relative
permeability (Kg/Ko) relationship determines to a large extent
the ultimate recovery from depletion drive reservoirs.

Performance Prediction of a Depletion Drive Reservoir:

Tarner provides a convenient method of predicting future reservoir
performance. This method utilizes the Schilthuis material balance
equation, the instantaneous gas-oil ratio equation; and an equation
for determining the oil saturation existing at any time. The method is
applied in two steps: above saturation and below saturation pressure.
The value of oil in place N and cumulative oil produced Np will be
different for both the steps.

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6
Mechanics of the Reservoir Performance Prediction Procedure:
When making a reservoir study of a depletion drive reservoir the
principal objectives are to determine:
1) the ultimate recovery by primary recovery methods,
2) the rate at which the oil and gas will be recovered, and
3) the variation of reservoir pressure with oil production.

7
 All these objectives can be answered by the Tarner method of
predicting reservoir performance. A step by step procedure for
performing a reservoir study is given below:

Procedure:
I. Assemble production data and all necessary information
concerning the reservoir fluids with the following category of
information:-
A. Reservoir fluid data: Bo, Rs, Z, o, g can be calculated if either
laboratory measurement, or gas composition or gas specific
gravity is known. Prepare graphs of all the above factors versus
pressure.
B. Past production data of oil, gas water and water influx: prepare
graphs of the above data versus pressure
C. Fluid flow data:
1. Lab. relative permeability data (Kg/Ko vs So)
(A typical permeability data has been shown in the figure given).
2. Field relative permeability data calculated from production
data and instantaneous gas-oil ratio equation and the oil saturation
equation.
D. Geological data: N, m, Swi, and  .
The use of both the lab and the field relative permeability data
provides a reliable index of the past flow characteristics of the
reservoir which is a critical factor in the behaviour of a depletion
drive reservoir.
However, since the behaviour of the reservoir in the future is
one of the principal objectives of the study, it will be necessary to
extrapolate the field relative permeability curves to lower oil
saturations.

8
 This is best accomplished by using laboratory permeability
data, adjusting the curve obtained in the lab until it fits the field curve
over the past history of the reservoir. This will usually provide a
reliable index of future behaviour.

9
III. Using the past production history of the reservoir, and the best
available data, predict reservoir behaviour as if the actual
reservoir behaviour were unknown, and compare this predicted
performance with the actual reservoir performance. This
technique is a necessary preliminary step in any reservoir
study. Make any necessary adjustments in basic data as dictated
by this matching process.

IV. First Prediction Step

A. Select a future reservoir pressure and assume a value of

Np (in terms of fraction of N) and solve the cum. gas
equation for NpRp given in the step II.
B. Using the assumed value of Np, solve the oil saturation
equation for So. Using the calculated value of So,
determine the available Kg/Ko from the relative
permeability curve. Then calculate R, the instantaneous
gas-oil ratio, from the instantaneous flowing gas-oil ratio
(GOR) eqn.

10
 It should be noted that the total gas produced calculated this
way will be correct only if the variation between Ri and Ri+1 is
linear. Since a plot of R vs. Np is not linear in nature, it is
necessary to assume small pressure drops in order to have
successive values of R which are close together. In actual
practice, pressure decrements in the order of 50 psi are
normally used.
D. The total gas produced during the period, as calculated by the
material balance equation, is compared to the total gas
produced during the period, as calculated by the GOR equation.
These two equations represent independent methods of arriving
at the same answer.
Therefore, if the total gas produced, as calculated by the
two different methods, is the same, then the correct value of Np
has been assumed. However, if the two values are not in
agreement, then this process must be repeated until a value of
Np is found which will yield the same answer from both
equations.

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E. In order to simplify this estimating process, three values of N p
can be assumed, which will yield three different solutions of
gas produced for each of the equations.
If these values are then plotted on a graph of NpRp vs Np,
the plot of the two lines will intersect. This intersection is the
only point where one value of Np will satisfy both equations.
F. The stepwise procedure is continued until the economic limit
has been reached.
G. The final results of this series of calculations are usually shown
as graphs between R vs Np/N and P vs Np/N.

Gas-Oil Ratio history in a depletion drive reservoir:

The producing gas-oil ratio history of a depletion drive
reservoir can provide reservoir engineer valuable information when
this is analyzed in the light of the events which must occur in the
reservoir. In the typical GOR vs. Np plot (refer to figure), during the
period from point 1 to 3 the GOR curve follows exactly the solution
GOR curve.
From point 1 to 2, the reservoir produces above saturation
pressure, therefore, prod. GOR remains constant and equal to initial
solution GOR at point 2, the reservoir saturation pressure is reached,
and gas is evolved from solution.
However, this free gas cannot flow until a free gas saturation
equivalent to the equilibrium gas saturation (minimum gas saturation
necessary to permit gas flow) has been built up.
Therefore, the surface gas oil ratio will begin to decrease as the
solution gas-oil ratio decreases.
At point 3, the equilibrium gas saturation is reached and free gas now
begins to flow. The gas-oil ratio increases from point 3 to point 4.

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 The rapidity of the gas-oil ratio increase will depend upon the
rate of pressure decline. The gas-oil ratio increases because gas is
being evolved from all of the oil in the reservoir, while only a small
part of this oil is being produced.
At point 4, the maximum gas-oil ratio is reached for the simple
reason that the supply of gas has reached a maximum and the ‘blow-
down’ cycle is beginning. From Point 4 to Point 5, the free gas
saturation is being depleted rapidly due to the small amount of gas
coming out of solution compared to the gas produced.
At point 5 all of the producible free gas has been produced and
the producing gas-oil ratio now is equal to the solution gas-oil ratio
which now is small due to the low reservoir pressure.
The line from Point 5 to Point 6 seldom is seen in an actual case
because the economic limit usually falls somewhere between Point 4
and Point 5.

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II. GAS CAP DRIVE RESERVOIRS
Gas cap drive reservoirs can be identified by the presence of a
relatively large gas cap with little or no water drive. Due to the ability
of the gas cap to expand readily, these reservoirs are characterized
by less rapid pressure decline than the same size depletion drive
reservoir. Other characteristics of gas cap drive reservoirs are their
lack of water production and rapidly increasing gas-oil ratio in
structurally high wells as the gas cap expands into the oil zone.
Oil recovery by gas cap expansion is actually a frontal drive
displacing mechanism. Recovery efficiency is therefore, normally
considerably larger than in depletion drive reservoirs, since a gas
saturation is not being formed throughout the reservoir at the same
time. Figure 1 shows the relative positions of the gas and oil at
different times in the producing life of the reservoirs.

As the size of the gas cap increases, the ultimate oil recovery
will also be increased. This is illustrated graphically in Figure 2.
Vertical permeability and reservoir oil viscosity are also important
factors in determining the recovery efficiency. Good vertical
permeability will permit the oil to move downward with less
bypassing of gas. As oil viscosity increases the amount of gas
bypassing will also increase

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 In order to conserve gas, and thereby increase ultimate oil
recovery, it is necessary to shut-in wells, which produce excessive
gas. In areas where production is subject to proration or where
inequities with royalty owners may occur, it is usually desirable to
transfer the allowables of wells producing with high gas-oil ratios to
wells producing with low gas-oil ratios. This has the desirable effect
of reducing the gas withdrawal rate without reducing the oil-
producing rate.
Gas, as a displacing fluid is limited in its efficiency primarily
because of two factors: (1) the unfavourable viscosity ratios promote
fingering of gas with consequent early breakthrough and (2) gas is
normally the non-wetting phase and will preferentially pass through
the larger pore spaces, leaving oil trapped in the smaller pore spaces.
Once this oil has been bypassed, much of it will never be recovered.
Figure 3 shows a comparison of displacement in individual
pores of a reservoir rock by water and by gas. Water will usually
maintain a more uniform front than the gas, the capillary forces

15
causing the water to invade the smaller pore spaces while the viscous
pressure forces the water into the larger pores. The result is more
complete oil displacement at water breakthrough.

Ultimate oil recovery from gas cap drive reservoirs is greater

than comparable recovery from depletion drive reservoirs. Recovery
will vary, depending on the size of the original gas cap, the vertical
permeability, reservoir oil viscosity, and the degree of conservation
of the gas, but as a rule of thumb ultimate recovery will vary from 20
percent to 40 percent of the original oil in place.
Where the size of the original gas cap is not large, and reservoir
pressure decreases rapidly as oil and gas withdrawals continue, gas
saturation throughout the oil zone is formed by release of gas from
solution from the oil. With the creation of this uniform gas saturation
throughout the oil zone, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain
a gas “front” to displace the oil. Gas begins to flow very rapidly at
even small saturations, therefore, its prohibitive gas-oil ratios are to
be prevented, and reservoir pressure should be maintained as near
the saturation pressure possible. Recovery efficiency is dependent to

16
a large extent on the ability to maintain the reservoir pressure near
the saturation pressure.
As a gas cap can expend only as a result of pressure reduction
in the reservoir, it follows that some gas will also be evolved. By
successive pressure reductions two important events will occur: (1)
the effective permeability to oil will be decreased as a result of the
increased gas saturation, and (2) the effective permeability to gas will
be increased thereby increasing the flow of gas. This may result in a
producing mechanism, which is actually a solution gas drive
mechanism.
The formation of the free gas saturation in the oil zone cannot
be prevented without resorting to pressure maintenance operations.
Therefore, in order to achieve maximum benefit from a gas cap drive
producing mechanism, gas saturation in the oil zone must be kept to
an absolute minimum. This can be accomplished by taking advantage
of gravitational segregation of the fluid. In fact, an efficiently
operated gas cap drive reservoir must also have an efficient gravity
segregation drive. As the gas saturation is formed in the oil zone it
must be allowed to migrate up structure to the gas cap. Thus, a gas
cap drive reservoir is in reality a combination drive reservoir,
although it is not usually considered as such.
Lower producing rates will permit the maximum amount of
free gas in the oil zone to migrate to the gas cap. Therefore gas cap
drive reservoirs are rate sensitive, as lower producing rates will
usually result in increased recovery.
In a large number of cases it will be desirable to install gas
return facilities in order to maintain reservoir pressure. This is
especially true where, due to some structural features of the reservoir,
it is impossible to control gas-oil ratios. The installation of gas return
facilities is largely an economic measure, it being necessary to first

17
determine whether the cost of the pressure maintenance facilities will
be more than rapid by the increased oil recovery.
Effect of Producing Rate on Ultimate Recovery:
The effectiveness of oil displacement from the reservoir is
dependent largely on the maintenance of a uniform gas front. Slow
withdrawal rates will promote the uniformity of this front by causing
less fingering of the advancing gas and also allowing maximum
gravitational segregation. Therefore, low production rates will
increase ultimate recovery.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to calculate the effect on ultimate
recovery of varying withdrawal rates. All of the equations normally
used in predicting reservoir behaviour are not rate sensitive, and
therefore the rate effect cannot be studied. Past experience with the
reservoir or similar reservoirs can usually be relied upon to show the
effect of producing rate.
Predicting Reservoir Performance:
The material balance equation, the instantaneous gas-oil ratio
equation, and the oil saturation equation are used to determine the
future behaviour of the reservoir. The Tarner method usually
provides a reliable solution to the problem.
The principal objectives in a study of a gas drive reservoir are:
1. Determination of past changes in gas-oil contact.
2. Determine maximum efficient producing rate for the
reservoir.
3. Determine future changes in the gas-oil contact at various
times. This will be invaluable in determining the need for
additional wells, remedial work, and shutting in of high gas-oil
ratio wells.
The objective in operating any reservoir is to take advantage of
the most efficient displacing mechanism available. In the case of a

18
reservoir with a large gas cap and no water drive, the expansion of
the gas cap will normally provide the most efficient displacing
energy. It is particularly important in any reservoir with an original
free gas cap to prevent shrinkage of the gas cap.
If the gas cap is permitted to shrink, then oil saturation will be
established in a portion of the reservoir, which hitherto had no oil
saturation. There is always some minimum oil saturation below
which it is impossible to reduce the oil saturation. Therefore, the
residual oil saturation remaining in the gas zone is lost oil, which
would have been recoverable if the gas cap had not been permitted
to shrink.
Equations Used:
The Tarner method is generally used in predicting performance
of gas cap drive reservoirs. The material balance equation and the
instantaneous gas oil ratio equation are solved simultaneously for the
amount of gas produced during the period selected. It may be
necessary to also revise the equation for calculating oil saturation, as
some of the gas may move up structure to the gas cap. The material
balance equation is rearranged as follows:

Prediction of reservoir performance is then made following the

earlier procedure.

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III. WATER DRIVE RESERVOIRS

 Oil production by water-displacing process.

 It is most efficient drive.
 It also leaves a considerable percentage of residual oil.

Characteristics:
1. Pressure decline is very gradual
2. Early excess water production
3. Normally little change in GOR
4. Initial reservoir pressure is normal for the area.

Considerations:
Initial free gas cap: Gas production should be minimized to
take advantage of more efficient water displacing process. However,

20
gas cap volume shrinkage should be avoided at any cost, as oil
saturation in the original gas cap due to upward movement of oil will
be developed, part of which can never be produced.

Efficiency of the water displacement process:

In general, as the reservoir heterogeneity increases, the
recovery will decrease, due to uneven advance of the displacing
water. The rate of water advance will be faster in the highly
permeable zone. This results in earlier high water-oil ratios and
consequent earlier economic limits. In homogeneous reservoir,
comparatively the advancing water would, have contacted a greater
portion of the reservoir, until economic limit.

Degree of activity of Water drive:

In a very active water drive, where degree of pressure
maintenance is good, the role of solution gas in the recovery process
is reduced to almost zero, with maximum advantage being taken of
the water as a displacing force.

Effect of free gas saturation on Recovery:

It is generally agreed and proved by the laboratory results that
oil recovery is increased in the presence of free gas saturation.
Although, the actual mechanism is not completely understood this
phenomenon can be taken advantage of in water drive reservoirs.
Where original pressure is above the saturation pressure of the
reservoir oil it may be desirable to reduce reservoir pressure below
the saturation pressure as rapidly as possible in order to create free
gas saturation in the oil zone. After the free gas saturation has been
established it is then desirable to maintain reservoir pressure (by
water injection) as much as possible in order to prevent excessive gas
saturation from developing in the reservoir. It is possible to

21
substantially increase oil recovery from a reservoir by this technique
and it should be taken advantage of at every opportunity.

Predicting Reservoir Performance:

Schilthuis developed an equation for calculating water influx
under steady state condition as:
We = K  (Pi - P) dt
where
We = gross water influx, bbl
P i= initial boundary pressure, psi
P = boundary pressure at some later time, psi
t = time, days
K = water influx constant, bbl/day/psi
The compression of the void spaces in the reservoir rock due to
pressure drop has got effect on performance similar to that of water
influx. It is difficult to separately note the effect of the two in the
reservoir; hence a combined term for the two effects called effective
water compressibility is used.
It has been seen that the process of water influx is in reality an
unsteady state phenomenon. In the combination drive reservoirs,
however, the use of Schilthuis steady state equations is possible with
reliable results because the water influx rate is small compared to the
other driving forces. The water influx constant K could be found
from past production data, and then this same value of K could be
used for performance prediction.
Unsteady state water influx equation was developed by Hurst;
and van Everdingen and Hurst. This equation has been developed
from the constant terminal pressure solution of the diffusivity
equation describing the reservoir behaviour.

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Van Everdingen and Hurst equation can be written as:
We = 1.119  c R2 h p Q(t)
Or: We = B.  p. Q(t)
where
B = 1.119  C r2e h, constant, bbl/psi
and , c, R, h, p = pressure drop (psi), compressibility (psi-1), pay
thickness (ft), psi respectively
Q(t) = dimensionless water influx at dimensionless time tD
This phenomenon of water influx being unsteady state, it
should be realized that for longer time duration; the effect of pressure
drop can be accounted for only by using the principle of
superposition. If a long interval is chosen for which p is the pressure
drop, then while the influx is taking place from the aquifer to the
reservoir during the first part of the chosen time interval, the influx
due to the second (or the subsequent) part of the time also takes place,
hence the cumulative water influx is the result of superposition of a
series of water influx superimposed during the given time interval.
This can be expressed as:
We = B p x Q(t)
The value of B is modified, if the water encroaches through a
fraction, f of the reservoir periphery only. Accordingly, modified B
can be written as:
B = 1.119  C r2e h f, constant, bbl/psi,
Where, f = fraction of the reservoir periphery (estimated as θ/2 or
θ/360o) into which water is encroaching (Refer to Fig.6 and 7) and θ
is the angle subtended by the portion of the aquifer to the reservoir.
It has been reported that instead of using the entire pressure
drop for the first period a better approximation is to consider that
one-half of the pressure drop, ½ (Pi - P1), is effective during the entire
first period. For the second period the effective pressure drop then is

23
one-half of the pressure drop during the first period, ½ (Pi - P1), plus
one-half of the presence drop during the second period, ½ (P1- P2)
which simplifies to:
½ (Pi - P1) + ½ (P1 - P2) = ½ (Pi - P2)
Similarly, the effective pressure drop for use in the calculation
for the third period would be one-half of the pressure prop during the
second period, ½ (P1-P2), plus one-half of the pressure drop during
the third period, ½ (P2-P3), which simplifies to ½ (P1-P3). Similarly,
the effective pressure drop for use in the calculation for the fourth
period would be equal to ½ (P2 – P4).

Example calculation 1
In typical water drive reservoir, the water influx at the end of (i) Six
month (Pi = 2500 psi, P1 = 2490 psi) is calculated as :

24
 B = 1.119  Cr2e h f
(Refer to Figures 5a and 5b for definition of f)
= 1.119 x 0.20 x (1.0 x 10-6 ) x (2000)2 x 25 x 1.0
= 22.38 bbl/psi

6.323 x 10-3 kt 6.323 x 10-3 x 100 (t)

tD = ------------------------- = -----------------------------
C r2 0.80 x 0.20 x 1.0 x 10-6 x (2000)2

= 0.99 (t)

tD = 0.99 x 182.5 = 180.6

Q(t) from table 1 of Q(t) vs tD
= 69.46
Therefore We = B x P x Q(t)
= 22.38 x ½ (2500 - 2490) x 69.46= 7773 bbl.

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(ii) Water influx at the end of one year (P2 = 2472 psi) is calculated
as :
P = ½ (Pi - P2 )= ½ (2500 - 2472) = 14 psi.
The first pressure drop, pi - p1 has been effective for one year,
but the second pressure drop, p1 - p2 , has been effective only for 6
months. Separate calculations must be made for the two pressure
drops because of this time difference and the results added in order
to determine the total water influx.
tD (1 year) = 0.99 x 365 = 361, Q(t) = 123.5
tD (6 months) = 0.99 x 182.5 = 180.6, Q(t) = 69.46
Therefore, We = B P x Q(t)
= 22.38 (5 x 123.5 + 14 x 69.46)
= 22.38 (618 + 972 ) = 22.38 x 1590
= 35,584 barrels.

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Similarly, the values of water influx at the end of 18 months and 2
years are calculated as 93,906 barrels and 192,580 barrels.

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Use of the unsteady state equation in predicting Reservoir
Performance:
The principal utility of the unsteady state water influx equation
is in the prediction of reservoir performance, although this equation
alone cannot be used because there are two unknown, water influx
and pressure. Commonly Material Balance equation is used along
with water influx equation for performance prediction.

Procedure for performance analysis:

1. Collect all necessary reservoir and PVT data
2. Calculate the value of B, the water influx constant from the best
available data,
B = 1.119 C h r2
3. Check the validity of B, water influx, We is found at different time
intervals and B is calculated a:
We (mb)
B = ---------------------
 p x Q(t)

28
The apparent value of B is plotted against the corresponding value of
Np and the most likely value of B is chosen from the best horizontal
line. This value of B is normally used for all future calculations after
verification from its value computed as in step 2.

4. Water influx over the past history of the reservoir is next

calculated using both unsteady state equation and the material
Balance equation. These two should agree if the average value
of B has been used in the unsteady state equation.
5. On the basis of the past production history of the reservoir the
following curves are usually drawn:
A. Gross water influx vs. Time (and cum oil).
B. Net water influx vs. Time (and cum. oil).
C. Net change in gas cap vs. Time (and cum. oil).
These calculated values are then compared to actual performance
data to determine whether the calculated values are indicative of
actual behaviour.
6. Prediction of Future Reservoir Behaviour.
A. Selection of a combination of oil, gas and water production
rates, which will hold throughout the prediction period.

29
 B. The first step is the estimation of the reservoir pressure at
the end of the first trial period (say six months). Gross water
influx is calculated by both the equations. If the results agree
then the first estimated pressure is correct; if not, then another
pressure must be selected and the procedure repeated until
agreement is reached.
C. Additional calculations are repeated for additional equal
time intervals until the desired range of reservoir history has
been studied.
7. Several different combinations of oil, gas and water producing
rates should be used, and a complete prediction made for each set of
values. The advantage of having these different combinations of
withdrawal rates is that if for any reason the withdrawal rates are
changed in the future from these expected, a set of performance
curves will already be available for the altered production condition,
and an entirely new study will not be required.

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31
IV. COMBINATION DRIVE RESERVOIRS
When a reservoir is being produced by the combination of two
or more drive mechanisms, it is known as combination drive
reservoir. Two combinations of driving forces are commonly found,
namely, (a) depletion and a week water drive, and (b) depletion drive
with a gas cap and a week water drive. Gravity segregation can play
an important role in any of the other drives. The effects of gravity
drainage are often difficult to evaluate and predict in most reservoir
engineering studies, because, the main important equation for such
studies, MB Equation can not be readily utilized to study gravity
drainage effects. However, where this effect is to be accounted, its
effects are incorporated in performance data like relative
permeability curve. A field relative permeability curve can be used
which accounts for this effect.
Characteristics:
1. Relatively rapid pressure decline. Water encroachment and/or
external gas cap expansion are insufficient to maintain reservoir
pressures.
2. Water encroaching slowly into the lower part of the reservoir.
Structurally low producing wells will exhibit slowly increasing
water producing rates.
3. If a small gas cap is present the structurally high wells will exhibit
continually increasing gas-oil ratios, provided the gas cap is
expanding. It is possible that the gas cap will shrink due to
production of excess free gas, in which case, the structurally high
wells will exhibit a decreasing gas-oil ratio. This condition should
be avoided whenever possible, as large volumes of oil can be lost
as a result of a shrinking gas cap.

32
4. As a substantial percentage of the total oil recovery may be due to
the depletion drive mechanism, the gas-oil ratio of structurally
low wells will also continue to increase due to evolution of gas
from solution from oil throughout the reservoir as pressure is
reduced.
Figure below shows production history of a typical
combination drive reservoir with a weak water drive and no initial
free gas cap. Note that the producing gas-oil ratio remains relatively
constant for a period of time. This indicates that the reservoir
pressure is above the saturation pressure. When the gas oil ratio
begins to increase it is probably due to the fact that the reservoir
pressure has been reduced below the saturation pressure and the
increasing gas-oil ratio is the result of evolution of dissolved gas
from the oil.

33
 Ultimate recovery form combination drive reservoirs is usually
greater than that from depletion drive reservoirs but less than that
from water drive or gas cap drive reservoirs. Actual recovery will
depend upon the degree to which it is possible to reduce the
magnitude of recovery by depletion drive. In most combination drive
reservoirs it will be economically feasible to institute some type of
pressure maintenance operation, either gas injection, water injection,
or both gas and water injection, depending upon the availability of
the fluids.
Indexes of Drives:
The efficiency of operation by various drive mechanisms
in the combination drive is possible to be evaluated by rearranging
the Material Balance equation.
The generalized MBE is written as:
Np [ Bo + ( Rp - Rs) Bg ]
= N [mBoi (Bg/Bgi - 1) + (Bo - Boi ) + (Rsi - Rs) Bg ]
+ (We -Wp ) (1)
or NpBo = N (Bt - Bti) + m N Boi ( Bg/Bgi - 1)
+ (We - Wp ) - Np (Rp - Rs) Bg (2)
Bt = Bo + (Rsi - Rs ) Bg (3)
and
N(Bt - Bti ) = N[ (Rsi - Rs) Bg + (Bo - Boi ) ] (4)
LHS is the expansion of the original reservoir oil volume with
all of its original dissolved gas. After reservoir pressure declines
below saturation pressure, some of the original dissolved gas will be
evolved from solution and will occupy space as free gas in the
reservoir. Some of the free gas so evolved from the reservoir oil may
be produced.

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 The term Np (Rp - Rs) Bg is the free gas produced which can be
divided into two parts gas cap gas production and free dissolved gas
production.
Let ‘f’ be defined as the fraction of produced free gas which
comes from the gas cap, then the free gas production can be separated
as follows:
Gas cap gas production = f Np (Rp - Rs) Bg (5)
Free Dissolved Gas production
= (1 - f) Np (Rp - Rs) Bg (6)
The term m N Boi (Bg/Bgi - 1) is the expansion of the original
free gas cap. Some of the gas cap may be produced, given in the
equation (5) will have to be subtracted to get gas cap expansion.
Similarly N (Bt - Bti ) represents the expansion of the original
reservoir oil with its dissolved gas, so free dissolved gas production
given in the equation (6) will have to be subtracted from N (Bt - Bti )
to get the net expansion of the original reservoir oil with all of its
original reservoir dissolved gas.
We - Wp is the next water influx term.
Rearranging the equation (2) as previously discussed yields:
Np Bo = [ N(Bt - Bti ) - (1 - f) Np (Rp - Rs) Bg ]
+ [mNBoi (Bg/Bgi - 1) - f Np (Rp - Rs) Bg ] + (We - Wp ) (7)
The first bracket term in the equation (7) is the net expansion
of the reservoir oil with its dissolved gas and the second bracketed
term is the net gas cap expansion. Thus equation (7) shows that the
reservoir oil produced is a result of the combined effect of (1) net
expansion of the reservoir oil with its original dissolved gas, plus (2)
the net gas cap expansion and, plus (3) net water encroachment.

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 Dividing equation (7) by NpBo :
[ N (Bt - Bti ) - (1 -f) Np (Rp - Rs ) Bg ]
1 = -----------------------------------------------
Np Bo

[ mNBoi (Bg/Bgi - 1 ) - f Np (Rp - Rs) Bg]

+ -------------------------------------------------------
Np Bo

(We - Wp )
+ ------------------ (8)
Np Bo

The three terms on RHS are the Depletion Drive, Gas cap Drive, and
the Water Drive Index respectively.
Determining the fraction of the produced gas which comes
from the gas cap may be difficult at times, although usually enough
production and reservoir engineering data will be available to
satisfactorily determine this number. The usual method of
determining f is to determine the change in gas-oil contact from
producing wells, after which, with a knowledge of the reservoir size
the amount of gas cap gas production can be calculated.
The sum of the drive indexes will be equal to 1. Thus to
increase one of them, the other(s) would have to be decreased. The
approach should be to utilize the most efficient drive i.e. water drive
and minimize depletion drive index. Where water drive is weak, then

36
energy provided by gas cap expansion should be used. While
utilizing the gas cap expansion energy, the conservation of gas cap
must be considered for its effective utilization. This can be done by
avoiding gas production from gas cap.
Water drive index can be increased by shutting in wells
producing very large quantity of water. Reducing the oil production
rate could result in an increased water drive index and
correspondingly decreased depletion drive index containing a weak
water drive.
The recovery by gas cap drive in general is not rate sensitive,
as the gas is readily expansible. However, where the vertical
permeability is low, the expansion of gas cap could be limited; hence,
gas cap drive index could be rate sensitive.
Ideally, for more efficient reservoir operation, if the depletion
drive index can be reduced to zero, relatively good recovery can be
expected from the reservoir. This is difficult, because, it requires
complete maintenance of reservoir pressure. The drive indexes
should be evaluated at regular intervals in order to understand the
type of drives operative in the reservoir at various time intervals and
also to take decisions to change them to get advantage of the drive
mechanism which will have maximum efficiency.

Predicting Reservoir Performance:

The method of predicting the future reservoir performance of
the combination drive reservoir is same as of depletion drive
reservoir given by Tarner. However, the MB equation and oil
saturation equation have to be rewritten for combination drive
reservoir.
1. MBE which includes both an original free gas cap and water
encroachment is:

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NpRp = 1/Bg[ N(Bt - Bti ) + mNBoi ( Bg/Bgi - 1) + (We - Wp) + NpRsBg
- NpBo ] (9)
2. MBE which includes a weak water drive without an original
free gas cap.
A. Equation for pressures above the saturation pressure:
Np/N = (Bo - Boi)/Bo + (We - Wp)/NBo (10)

B. Equation for pressures below the saturation pressure:

N(Bt-Bti ) + (We - Wp) + NpRsBg - NpBo
NpRp = -------------------------------------------------- (11)
Bg
3. Oil Saturation Equation:
Let A1 = Average cross-sectional area of the gas-invaded position
of the reservoir, acres.
A2= Average cross-sectional area of the water-invaded portion
of the reservoir acres.
h1 = Thickness of the gas-invaded zone in the reservoir, ft.
h2 = Thickness of the water-invaded zone in the reservoir, ft.
= Porosity of the reservoir, fraction
Sorg = Residual oil saturation in the gas-invaded portion of the
reservoir, fraction.
Sorw = Residual oil saturation in the water-invaded portion of
the reservoir, fraction.
So (at any time)
Remaining oil in the Remaining oil zone
= ----------------------------------------------------- (12)
Remaining oil zone size
It is very important to select the proper oil saturation equation,
as the relative permeability relationships are critical functions of oil

38
saturation. Therefore, determination of correct oil saturation
equation is an important step in a reliable predication of reservoir
performance.
4. Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio equation which is used for
prediction is given as:
R = Kg/Ko . o/g . Bo/Bg+ Rs (24)
As given earlier, the prediction will involve the calculation of
gas produced by MBE and GOR eqn. independently for an assumed
value of Np. If the values of gas produced by both the equations are
same, then the assumption of Np is taken as the correct value,
otherwise the calculation repeated with new assumed Np value till the
correct value is obtained. This process is continued till the N p value
is reached corresponding to the abandonment pressure. Finally,
Pressure vs Np and GOR vs. Np are plotted as the performance
curves.

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