Future Transport

British Council for Offices
April 2018
FUTURE TRANSPORT
The implications for office
demand and design
ABOUT THE BCO ABOUT BURGES SALMON
COVER IMAGE Copyright © ithinksky | iStock

The BCO is the UK’s leading forum for the discussion and Burges Salmon is a leading, independent UK law firm.
debate of issues affecting the office sector. Established in Operating from its 170,000 ft2 HQ in Bristol and offices
1990, its membership base comprises organisations involved in London, it offers clients the best mix of advice, service
in creating, acquiring or occupying office space, including and value in a selected range of industry sectors and
architects, lawyers, surveyors, financial institutions and specialisms, including the real estate and transport sectors.
public agencies.
Its multi-award winning real estate team provides the full
The BCO recognises that offices don’t just house companies, range of legal services to developers, occupiers, investors,
they hold people and so what goes on inside them is paramount funders and asset managers across transactional and
to workplace wellbeing. contentious property work in the commercial, residential
and rural property markets, with a particular emphasis on
identified sub-markets including offices, retail, industrial,
ABOUT ATKINS e-commerce, hotels, healthcare and a range of other
alternative assets.
SNC-Lavalin’s Atkins business is one of the world’s most
respected design, engineering and project management It has a market-leading transport practice with unrivalled
consultancies. Together, SNC-Lavalin, a globally fully expertise in the transport sector across all modes. This
integrated professional services and project management includes a dedicated Transport Technology and Intelligent
company, and Atkins help our clients plan, design and enable Mobility team combining that expertise with cutting-edge
major capital projects, and provide expert consultancy that legal and regulatory experience and thought leadership.
covers the full lifecycle of projects. We strive to build strong On connected and autonomous vehicles, it leads on
relationships by understanding the challenges our clients face, critical analysis and thinking on legal and regulatory
sharing their vision and helping them transform potential reform, grounded in actual testing experience through its
into reality. involvement in four government‑funded CAV projects:
VENTURER, FLOURISH, CAPRI and ROBOPILOT.
Intelligent mobility is an end-user and outcome-focused
approach to connecting people, places and services – www.burges-salmon.com
reimagining infrastructure across all transport modes, enabled • Richard Clark, Partner and Head of Real Estate Sector
by data, technology and innovative ideas. It will increase the
efficiency, sustainability and safety of our transport systems and • Chris Jackson, Partner, Head of Transport Sector
cities worldwide. Visit our iM Hub: www.atkinsglobal.com/im • Brian Wong, Legal Director, Transport
• Dr Wolfgang Schuster, Technical Director
• Zoe Shute, Practice Manager ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• Christina Teokari, Transport Planner
The report authors and the BCO would like to thank all
• Ruth Hynes, Design Researcher those who have contributed to this project through case
• Emma Chester, Graduate Consultant studies or interviews. For a full list please see p. 37.
CITATION
British Council for Offices (2018) Future Transport. The Implications for Office Demand and Design.
http://www.bco.org.uk/Research/Publications/Future_Transport_The_Implications_for_Office_Demand_and _Design.aspx
COPYRIGHT © BRITISH COUNCIL FOR OFFICES, 2018

All rights reserved by British Council for Offices. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means
without prior written permission from the British Council for Offices. The BCO warrants that reasonable skill and care has been used in preparing
this report. Notwithstanding this warranty the BCO shall not be under liability for any loss of profit, business, revenues or any special indirect or
consequential damage of any nature whatsoever or loss of anticipated saving or for any increased costs sustained by the client or his or her servants
or agents arising in any way whether directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on this publication or of any error or defect in this publication. The
BCO makes no warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy of any data used by the BCO in preparing this report nor as to any projections
contained in this report which are necessarily of any subjective nature and subject to uncertainty and which constitute only the BCO’s opinion as
to likely future trends or events based on information known to the BCO at the date of this publication. The BCO shall not in any circumstances be
under any liability whatsoever to any other person for any loss or damage arising in any way as a result of reliance on this publication.
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
INTRODUCTION 5
BASELINING THE CURRENT TRANSPORT AND OFFICE LANDSCAPE 6
SCENARIO 1: THE ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT 9
SCENARIO 2: THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE 14
SCENARIO 3: THE EMERGENCE OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 17
FUTURE TRANSPORT INFLUENCING OFFICE DEMAND 21
FUTURE TRANSPORT SHAPING OFFICE DESIGN 23

Case study: An urban hub – White Collar Factory, London 24
Case study: A suburban hub – Facebook, Menlo Park, California26
GUIDANCE 27
REFERENCES 31
FURTHER READING 34
APPENDIX: TABLE OF DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES AND CASE STUDIES 36
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 37
FUTURE TRANSPORT – The implications for office demand and design 3 © BCO 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this report is to identify key
transport changes forecast up to 2030, and assess
the potential impact of these changes on office
demand and design. Office impacts are analysed in
relation to both urban and suburban office models,
and the report concludes with recommendations for
a variety of stakeholders who need to consider how
future transport will impact our office designs.
KEY FINDINGS
• An increased uptake in sustainable and public
transport means that there is likely to be a decrease in private
car use and ownership. This should lead to less on‑site car-
parking space, and an increase in the provision of bike parking, Copyright © CAM Image | Alamy Stock Photo
lockers, changing facilities and drop-off/pick-up points.
• An increase in walking and cycling to work is
expected to reflect a stronger individual, employer and
policy focus on health and wellbeing. This, coupled with an • Different office models will continue to emerge
increasing focus on work–life balance, means that people and grow in popularity as employees have increasing
are more likely to consider work locations closer to home decision-making power and options about their working
when possible. location. Central offices may provide additional amenities,
• A reduction in peak congestion should result from for example cafés, retail and childcare, to attract staff
greater variance in commuting patterns, working hours regularly to the office.
and working locations, which will impact the purpose of
central offices. Their primary use is likely to be collaborative
meeting space, in which case the ability to repurpose office
areas will be key to their longevity. KEY STAKEHOLDER
• Electric vehicles will grow in popularity, and offices RECOMMENDATIONS
need to respond through the provision of electric charging
• Employees are likely to have increasing flexibility around
points in their car parks for use by employees and visitors
their working location and routine, and must consider the
who continue to drive.
positive and negative impacts this could have on their work–
• Shared journeys are predicted to increase, life balance.
supported by on-demand services (such as carpools and
• Employers will need to embrace the flexibility of their
other micro‑transit services) and the provision of last-mile
office spaces, and respond to the changing requirements
transport services by organisations.
of their employees by facilitating decentralised ways of
• Developments in real-time transport data provide working.
clearer information on commuting options across different
• Transport and city planners need to consider how
modes and work locations, and increasingly people are likely
future transport technologies will affect office demand and
to adopt flexible commuting and working times to minimise
supply in their area to future-proof the location and design
their commute time and avoid congestion.
of new infrastructure.
• Improved communications technologies are likely
• Building developers will likely need to incorporate wider
to facilitate a decentralised office approach as employee
permitted uses for buildings and assess how the design
engagement through remote working systems become
will allow for future expansion and contraction to flex with
increasingly seamless. Communications networks on
demand.
transport modes will also improve, facilitating remote office
working while commuting. • Landlords need to consider adopting new tenancy models
and providing improved occupier services to remain
• Mobility as a Service should improve the efficiency
competitive as buildings adapt to new demands of the
of multi-modal journeys through single ticketing
occupational market.
solutions and smart mobility journey planners, helping
commuters to make better informed decisions. • Technology developers must ensure that a sufficient
level of security and resilience is developed alongside new
• The emergence of automated transport such as
transport technologies to protect organisations’ networks.
drones and connected and autonomous vehicles could
revolutionise the way that goods are delivered across • Policy makers and regulators should try to progress
24 hours a day and increasingly (predominantly beyond legislation in line with new transport technologies and
2030) the transportation of people. Offices should be able to travel requirements, developing robust policies without
adapt to these technologies with drop-off areas and bays. constraining innovation. ■
INTRODUCTION
There are 20 million workers in the UK distributed
across 1.6 million office-based businesses and
organisations,1 and, on average, people spend
30% of their lifetime working.2 With 75% of all
UK economic activity occurring in offices, office
buildings are critical to UK productivity and quality
of life for employees.3
Transport, among other factors such as technology,
communication and human behaviour, is continuously shaping
the demand and design of offices and informing the evolution
of office models.
There is already a shift towards agile working patterns and an
increased variety of office spaces, which is strongly interlinked
with changes currently taking place in transport, including an
increase in sustainable travel, greater commuting efficiencies
and improved journey information.
This report identifies emerging transport trends up to 2030,
and explores their impact on office demand and design.
REPORT OBJECTIVES
The objectives of this research were:
• to identify transport changes that will affect the delivery
Copyright © chombosan | iStock
of employees, visitors and goods to office buildings
• to explore the potential impact of these changes on
office demand and design
• to offer stakeholder recommendations based on the and charities. The transport and architecture case studies
research findings. considered were both UK based and international, and the data
This report considers the influence of technology, logistics and analysis was focused on a cross-section of modes, employee
demographics on changing office models, and uses the current demographics and workplace types.
transport and office industries as a baseline for comparison. A Once all the research data has been gathered and analysed, two
summary of the impacts on offices focuses on how the location activities were undertaken:
and variety of workspaces will likely evolve, and on how
urban and suburban office design could develop to meet new • baselining of the current transport network, and current
employee requirements. office demand and design, sourced through the analytical
desk research
• development of scenarios, using a method formulated by
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Philip van Notten in his work Think Scenarios, Rethink
Education (2006).4
The research that underpins this report was gathered through
The scenarios were developed through identifying
a literature review, academic and industry interviews, historic
influencing factors, such as technology, the gig economy and
data analysis, and various case study reviews.
the environment. Associations were formed between the
As part of the literature review, academics specialising in influencing factors to create 36 trends, which were elaborated
the future of transportation and architecture were consulted and grouped into 11 themes. Storylines were developed for
to identify relevant academic papers, industry research and each theme to produce 11 scenarios. For each scenario, its
publications. These included experts from University College likelihood and level of potential disruption were assessed,
London, Nottingham Trent University, Loughborough and three scenarios stood above the others when measured
University, University of West England, University of Reading against these criteria. This report builds on the following three
and University of Leeds. scenarios, assessing their impact on office design and demand:
Industry interviews spanned a variety of sectors, including • the adoption of sustainable transport
local and central government bodies, original equipment
• the growth of Mobility as a Service
manufacturers (OEMs), transport small and medium-sized
enterprises (SMEs), architecture specialists, logistics specialists • the emergence of connected and autonomous vehicles. ■
BASELINING THE CURRENT TRANSPORT
AND OFFICE LANDSCAPE
CURRENT UK TRANSPORT Other
5%
NETWORK
Transport plays a critical role in the evolution of society, the Bus
surrounding infrastructure and the environment. Commuting 7%
patterns, emerging trends and transport policies play a critical
Rail
role in influencing and enabling the transport ecosystem. 10%
In Great Britain, the main mode of travel to work is the car. The
Department for Transport Statistics 2017 report indicates that Walk
10% Car/van
67% of travel to work was undertaken by car or van, whereas
67% Figure 1
76% of goods deliveries were transported by road, with van Modal split of travel to
traffic growing faster than any other vehicle type since 2006.5 work in Great Britain (the
According to the INRIX 2017 Global Traffic Scoreboard,6 numbers do not add up to
the UK ranked in the top ten most congested countries in the 100% because of rounding)
world, with the direct and indirect costs of congestion for all Source: Department for
Transport statistics for 2017
drivers totalling more than £37.7 billion in 2017, an average of
£1,168 per driver. Travel to work in Great Britain broken down
by mode is shown in Figure 1.
The Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy published in
London differs from other regions in that public transport
2017 outlines the government’s ambition to make cycling and
is the main mode of travel to work. The capital city has a
walking a natural choice for shorter journeys or as part of
younger working population than the rest of the UK, with
longer journeys by 2040. Across the UK there is an increased
31% of workers aged between 16 and 34 according to 2011
emphasis on creating streets that better support walking and
census data. In this age group, 83% live in the capital, as
cycling, and reduce car dependency. This is highlighted in
younger generations are increasingly attracted to the city life
Bristol’s Safer Streets project, which is expected to make the
that London offers.7 London provides many opportunities
streets safer and attractive to walk and cycle on.10
for active travel, supported by a comparatively developed
infrastructure and policy programme. Recent developments Cycling has become increasingly prevalent in the last decade in
include the implementation of cycle superhighways, Quietways the UK. This is explored in depth in the BCO report The Market
and the Walk London Network, as well as tax-free cycle to work Cycles, which notes that there was a 39% growth in cycling
schemes and a Transport for London (TfL) bike hire scheme. miles from 1993 to 2016, with significant regional variations.11
Other UK cities, such as Cambridge, also have developed Table 1 shows the percentage change in the number of commuting
cycling infrastructure. The Cambridge Greenways project aims journeys by the main mode of transport used and area type from
to deliver a high-quality network of 12 routes into Cambridge 2002/04 to 2013/14. The table highlights that commuting trends
from surrounding towns. These routes will be primarily differ by area type, whether rural, suburban or urban. It shows
commuter cycle paths but will have additional benefits for that there has been an increase in car and van drivers between
pedestrians.8 On a national level, the National Cycle Network 2002/04 and 2013/14 in several rural and suburban areas, but
is a network that includes traffic-free paths and quiet on-road a decrease in car and van drivers in more urban locations (most
cycling and walking routes; 165 million commuting journeys significantly in outer London). National Rail commuting also
are made on this network.9 increased in urban areas, most significantly in inner London.
Commute mode Rural Suburban Urban

Mainly rural Largely rural Urban with Urban with Urban Urban Inner London Outer London
significant city and town with minor with major
rural conurbation conurbation
Walking 2% –1% (same) 1% –4% (same) (same) (same)
Bicycle –1% –1% –2% 1% –2% (same) 3% 1%
Car/van driver –1% 3% 3% –4% –2% –1% –5% –9%
Car/van passenger –1% –1% (same) –2% –1% (same) –1% –2%
Local bus –1% –1% –1% (same) (same) –2% –2% 1%
London Underground – – – – – – (same) 1%
National Rail 1% (same) –1% (same) 2% 3% 10% 3%
Table 1
Percentage change in commute mode from 2002/04 to 2013/14
Reproduced from Commuting Trends in England 1988–2015.12
Data sources: National Travel Survey using ONS standard spatial classification.
Across the UK there has been an overall decline in the number to continue. EV models are improving continuously due to
of commuter journeys made, but an increase in the length of technology advancements. According to a McKinsey report,
these journeys. In particular, the average distance travelled battery life is also improving and prices are on the decrease.21
by surface rail for commuting increased by 20% from 2003 Projections for the growth in EV usage suggest sales could
to 2016, as connected transport links and increasing house account for a third of cars globally by 2040.22
prices in certain parts of the country has caused commuters to
consider longer commuting distances than before.13
The increased use of rail and major infrastructure investments
in the National Infrastructure Pipeline indicate that rail will
CURRENT UK OFFICE DEMAND
continue to grow in importance as a commuting mode, as
a single method of commuting or as part of multi-modal
AND DESIGN
transport journeys. This will continue to impact commuting In the UK there are approximately 20 million office-based
patterns and catchment areas, and projects such as HS2, workers, who make up 62.5% of the total working population.
the Edinburgh–Glasgow improvement programme and the A recent study from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Manchester Metrolink will be key to unlocking locations for and UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES)
office development.14 shows that strong growth is predicted in the office-based
professions up to 2022.23
Workplaces are also adapting to this shift in commuter
preferences. The government’s Access Fund for sustainable The standard working day for UK workers is predominantly
travel provides an opportunity for local authorities to 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. However, according to the OECD Better Life
establish travel programmes that support workplaces in Index (2015), the UK is ranked 28th out of 38 countries for
encouraging and enhancing conditions for sustainable travel. employee work–life balance, which is based on working hours
The Workplace Parking Levy, which has been adopted in and time spent on leisure or personal care. The same index
Nottingham, is another example of workplaces triggering showed that 13% of UK employees regularly work more than
this shift in commuter patterns. The levy charges employers 50 hours per week.24
that provide workplace parking and uses the money raised The demographics of the UK workforce are also changing, with
for the redevelopment of the public transport system.15 This the UK’s ageing population having a significant impact. ONS
discourages workplaces from providing parking space and figures from 1984 to 2014 document a significant increase in
thus discourages employees from driving to work. Oxfordshire the number of people aged 50 and over in the labour market,
County Council is set to fund a study of plans to replicate which means an increased focus is required on the retention
the scheme in Nottingham, which is raising £9 million a of older staff. This raises the need to consider their varying
year for public transport.16 A Workplace Parking Levy will mobility and flexible working requirements.
also be implemented in Cambridge as part of a congestion
package agreed in 2017 by the executive board of the Greater The Stoddart Review (2016) revealed that, despite some
Cambridge City Deal.17 changes in office practices, 91% of office-based employees
still work from a single office.25 However, self-employment
Technology continues to disrupt traditional sectors, and remains on an upward trend, with 4.6 million people in the UK
transport is no exception. In recent years, there has been an (15% of workforce) being self-employed, an increase of 35%
increased focus on the adoption of smart mobility solutions to since 1993 (ONS). These statistics reflect the emergence of
level challenges around the capacity of the existing transport the ‘gig economy’, which is characterised by the prevalence of
system. Investment in transformative technologies and short‑term contracts or freelance work, and further illustrate
apps, such as Citymapper, Waze and Moovit, better inform the impact of technology and improved connectivity across the
commuters about their travel options and facilitate a more country contributing to the rise in self-employment (Figure 2).
seamless journey. This behavioural change is already evident
in the capital, where 70% of Londoners use smartphones to
support their daily commute.
Uber nationally, Ford’s Chariot service (on-demand bus 5
service) in London and Slide’s shared ‘ride to work’ bus service
in Bristol are all examples of emerging on-demand services
No. self-employed workers (millions)
in the UK. In addition, dockless cycle hire schemes have been

introduced around London boroughs and other cities, including
Manchester, Norwich, Newcastle, Oxford and Cambridge.
These schemes are designed to make cycling easier and can be
accessed by apps to find and book bikes. 4
The UK government’s ambition is to ban the sale of conventional

petrol and diesel cars in the UK by 2040,18 but in practice
radical change is likely to happen sooner than that given the
ambition of the Scottish government to ban such cars by 2032
and of car manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover to create
all electric or hybrid lines from 2020. To that end, the UK
3
government has plans to invest £400 million in electric vehicle
1993
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
(EV) charging and £40 million in EV charge-point research and

development. Currently there are more than 100,000 hybrid Figure 2
and pure EVs on the road, compared to just 3,500 in 2013.19 Number of self-employed workers 1993–2016
Moreover, the total number of charging points and connectors Source: ONS, 2016
has increased from just over 11,000 in February 2017 to more
than 14,000 in January 2018,20 with this growth expected
The flexibility of typical job roles is underlined by a shift in
how and where people work. A recent study by PwC 26 showed
that millennials value flexible working hours as a benefit from
employers, ranking second only to training and development
opportunities. This further supports the trends towards
increasingly flexible working spaces, with an increasing variety
of work areas, home working and flexibility in working hours.
Workplace densities have been steadily increasing over the
past 20 years, influenced by changes in the intensification
of floorspace use, the sharing of desk spaces and changes in
typical space planning ratios. Evidence from the most recent
BCO occupier density study (2018) shows that workplace
densities are slowly but steadily increasing, as the average
value for workplace density (by floor) is now 9.6 m2/person,
compared to 9.9 m2/person in 2013.27
In recent years, new working styles, including agile and
activity-based working, have seen the emergence of new models
of co-working, hotelling (reservation-based workspaces) and
membership-style office tenancies, with fewer permanent desk Copyright © jgolby | Shutterstock
spaces for employees. As a result, there has been an increase
in the variety of workplaces designed to suit a wider range of
employee work patterns.26
While office demand and supply appear to be recovering from
the 2008–2009 global recession, the latest figures from the
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), RICS Q4 2017:
UK Commercial Property Market Survey, show that supply
and demand remain sensitive to the demands of the economy.
Recently demand has fallen, while availability has risen.28
CURRENT URBAN AND

SUBURBAN OFFICE MODELS
A recent study by Atkins1 into employee wellbeing in
commercial offices across the UK highlighted the differing
views on transport and work practices between high-density
urban offices and lower density suburban offices. Copyright © geogphotos | Alamy Stock Photo
The study included a centrally located urban office situated

adjacent to various transport networks and interchanges,
providing a wide commuting catchment. Most people who work
in the building use more than one transport mode for their offices agreed that ‘good access to public transport is more
commute, combining train and bus journeys, or including a important than providing a lot of parking spaces’.
short car or bicycle journey for the last mile in the direction of
their home. Conversely, employees in suburban or out-of‑town Office locations and transport availability were also seen to
offices, usually business parks, are very reliant on private have an impact on attitudes towards amenity provision and
vehicles for commuting. Most staff travel to work by private car, how space within office buildings is planned. Respondents in
although shuttle buses run between the nearest urban centre suburban office locations preferred additional amenities (gyms,
and train station in the mornings and evenings. restaurants, etc.) to be available in close proximity to the office,
compared to employees in urban offices. This likely reflects
A survey across both office types showed that public transport that those in suburban locations would need to travel further
links are of much greater importance to employees working in to access amenities, whereas employees in urban locations
urban centres. A majority (84%) of respondents in urban offices may already have access to a wider range of amenities in close
agreed that ‘good access to public transport is more important proximity to where they work.
than providing a lot of parking spaces’, and 77% of respondents
agreed that ‘if a station or bus stop was near the office I would be This report focuses on how future transport is likely to change
more likely to use public transport’. Respondents in suburban urban and suburban central offices as two distinct typologies of
offices, however, were more likely to prioritise spaces for office buildings. ■
private vehicles. Only 32% of respondents from suburban
SCENARIO 1
THE ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
The adoption of sustainable transport was
prioritised as a scenario due to its predicted Electric vehicles
growth and scalability and the growing support Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors to drive their
it is receiving through government and industry wheels, and derive some or all of their power from large,
initiatives, categorising it as high probability rechargeable batteries. The distance an EV can travel between
battery charges is known as its range.33
scenario.
While there is parallel development ongoing in hydrogen fuel
cell technology and batteries to power EVs, in the shorter term
THE FUTURE OF it is likely that battery-powered EVs will reach a critical mass
of adoption before hydrogen fuel cell EVs are readily available.
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT This is matched by current UK government initiatives to
invest in, incentivise and legislate for battery technology and
The link between a sedentary lifestyle and long-term adverse to develop charging/smart grids. The Faraday Challenge is an
health effects is well known. The increase in awareness about example. This is a £246 million commitment over the next
wellbeing and health has led to increasing adoption of active four years to the development of batteries to capitalise on the
travel, including the adoption of active commuting. Active market opportunity of automotive electrification.
travel also has wider sustainability benefits and can contribute
to creating liveable cities. This is characterised by less CO2 and The battery and fuel cell technologies are not mutually
greenhouse gas emissions, less pollution, lower levels of small exclusive, and in the medium to longer term it is likely that
particulates and less noise compared to fuel-powered vehicles. vehicles and industries will adopt a mixture of these fuel
Transport also has implications for employees’ work–life sources. Nevertheless, this report focuses on the immediate
balance and general satisfaction. and real concerns of adapting the built environment for EVs
Employee wellbeing can be affected both by the mode of that require plug-in charging.
transport (active or sedentary) they use and by the time spent
on and the ease of commuting. The average national commute Benefits of EVs
times are 59 minutes by rail, 26 minutes by car and 15 minutes • Reduced tailpipe emissions compared with conventional
walking. A recent academic study exploring commuting and vehicles
wellbeing in London showed that people who walked or cycled
• Unlike conventional batteries, EV batteries do not use lead
to work have a higher life satisfaction, and people who took
or acid, the disposal of which is environmentally harmful
public transport reported lower mental distress generally.29
• Reduced noise pollution
In this scenario, people are making sustainable choices about
the type of transport they use to travel based on an increased
Drawbacks of EVs
awareness of their health and the environment. The vision
for sustainable transport is to have fewer motorised vehicles, • EV batteries use large amounts of elements such as nickel,
which can benefit both the environment and people’s health. lithium and cobalt, which are less toxic than the component
The requirement to commute using sustainable transport materials of conventional batteries but the mining of them
could lead to people living locally to their workplace or still has a substantial environmental impact
choosing office space closer to home. People are increasingly • There will be a disposal cost of batteries which has not yet
likely to make longer journeys only when necessary, to been fully seen as EVs are relatively new
reduce the impact on the environment. Because of increased
environmental awareness and regulations regarding clean air Source: Electric Vehicles and the Sustainability Balance Sheet, ICAS, 2017 34
and less pollution, Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs), including
hydrogen fuel cell based vehicles and EVs, and car sharing are
likely to see a high uptake.
In the last decade, there have been slight but steady increases
Active travel as part of commuting is generally an urban trend,
in the number of people walking, cycling and using public
and ONS data show that 3.2% of urban residents commute
transport in urban areas, as many commuters are now opting
to work by bike compared with 1.6% of rural residents.
to use sustainable and healthy travel options. A recent report by
Considering the continued increases in urban populations
Sodexo on the key trends in the working environment suggests
(Figure 3), and last-mile journeys by bicycle or walking that
that growing awareness of the cost of healthcare for illness
are not captured in these data, it is expected that cycling and
associated with a sedentary lifestyle will encourage people
walking will continue to increase towards 2030.
to make the most of their commute to benefit their health.30
Therefore, it is expected that commuters will increasingly The increase in cycling and walking is being supported by cities
include active travel as part of their total journey, with walking focusing on the importance of active travel in their planning
or the use of bicycle rental schemes becoming a common option strategies.31 According to Chris Bennett (Head of Behaviour
for the last mile of journeys. Change and Engagement, Sustrans), there is a trend for cities
to be designed for people to walk and cycle, with government
being critical in leading the change. He adds that London is a
good example that has not only built the right infrastructure
Population Population Projected
but also has encouraged the behavioural change required for
2015 increase increase
the uptake of sustainable transport. 2011–2015 2015–2025
The Alphabeta Building in London is one example of how
offices are being adapted to meet the changing requirements All city regions 27,180,000 +3.4% +7.6%
and priorities of a new generation interested in health and
City regions
wellbeing as part of their working day.32 The redesign of this 18,506,000 +2.3% +5.2%
(excluding London)
office building incorporates a cycle ramp that allows cyclists to
ride directly into the building, and the building includes storage London 8,674,000 +5.7% +12.7%
for more than 250 bicycles.
Another factor increasing active travel is environmental Figure 3
awareness, and the development of EVs and their facilities Urban population growth
is providing support for this. Councillor Colin Hunt, Cabinet Source: ONS Population Projections: Population Dynamics of UK City Regions since
Member responsible for transport in South Gloucestershire, is Mid-2011 (2016)
certain that the EV trend has already started. He says that:
“There is no doubt that there has

been a surge in the adoption of
EVs in the UK and especially in the
West of England region. Perhaps
the announcements by the Office
for Low Emission Vehicles and
government grants/subsidies for
the purchase of these vehicles
have helped. ”
He mentions that new building regulations and standards for
office developments are now increasingly incorporating EV
charging requirements as a requisite.
The London Environment Strategy draws a roadmap to zero
emission road transport which supports delivering 2,000
EV charging points and further investment in charging and
refuelling infrastructure.35 This will play a role in further
encouraging people to use EVs.
Nonetheless, electric cars alone will not address the issue of
congestion. Electric public transport (whether hydrogen fuel
cell or battery powered) and electric bike use, or the emergence
of small electric pods might offer improved assistance in this
respect. In order to improve sustainability through reduced
congestion, increasingly businesses are adapting to night
deliveries. A recent funding call and underlying study from
the EU highlighted that an estimated 24% of goods vehicles in
the EU are running empty, with the remaining vehicles being,
on average, only 57% full. Another study from AECOM found
that 70% of deliveries and collections by light commercial The Alphabeta Building, London
vehicles in the UK are made between the hours of 6 a.m. and Courtesy of CBRE and Hufton + Crow
2 p.m., while only 5% of deliveries or collections are made
during night-time hours.36 The London Environment Strategy
has committed funding for low-emission vehicle research,
especially for heavy vehicles, supporting low-emission freight
transport to achieve its zero emission goals.35
In addition, improvements in cycle infrastructure have facilitated
last-mile bike deliveries. An increasing trend towards the
adoption of last-mile cargo bike delivery was evidenced in the
McKinsey report Parcel Delivery: The Future of Last Mile.37
HOW WOULD SUSTAINABLE struggle to meet the evolving requirements of employees
with regard to active travel and wellbeing facilities.39 This
TRANSPORT CHANGE YOUR could lead to new offices being built where old ones cannot be
retrofitted. The BCO The Market Cycles report explores the
JOURNEY? issue of retrofitting versus new build, examining examples
which show that successful retrofitting is based on the
Figure 4 shows an example of how sustainable transport context.11 Moreover, it is important to understand the design,
could influence the daily working and commuting pattern of specification, electricity supply and connectivity limitations of
employees in the future. office buildings which may potentially make accommodating
charging points difficult.
THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE

TRANSPORT ON OFFICE DEMAND THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE
Evidence suggests that, although the characteristics of the TRANSPORT ON OFFICE DESIGN
demand may change for sustainable transport, this is unlikely
An increase in active commuting and sustainable transport is
to have a major impact on the overall demand for offices.
already impacting the look and feel of our offices. Rather than
Spatial demand for offices may change as companies want
revolutionising the full design of a new office, smaller design
to be better connected to cycle routes and public transport.
changes are continually being introduced to facilitate commuting
An increased focus on work–life balance may lead to less
via sustainable transport. Increased urban commuter cycling
commuting and increased homeworking. This could also mean
will require increased provision of changing rooms, showers
that people seek shorter commutes, which they can make via
and locker space, in addition to secure cycle parking. The BCO
sustainable transport, leading to an increased use of local work
The Market Cycles report gives a guide on how to future-proof
areas, for example library spaces and co‑working incubators.
the office building, and recommends that for 1,000 employees
This could produce a small reduction in the demand for and
upwards of 100 cycle spaces should be provided, with a similar
cost of central offices, and lead to increased repurposing of
number of, if not slightly more, lockers, and one shower per
central office space, for example renting small areas to SMEs.
10 lockers.11 An example of a company working on promoting
Vacancies of older offices have risen in recent years,38 possibly cycling is Unilever. At its office in Leeds, it has been working
because it is difficult to adapt them to meet flexible office with Sustrans to cater for increasing numbers of staff actively
requirements. The Haven Gateway Partnership Employment commuting to work,40 through the provision of lockers, showers,
Land Study suggests that areas with ageing office stock could secure cycle parking and emergency equipment.
1 3
The best travel option for you today
Before sleeping, you check your is cycling to the office to improve
diary and choose a working location your fitness and reduce congestion,
suited to minimise travel and and you use a shared bike parked
maximise your wellbeing – do I need near your house. Your cycling
to be in the central office or is there commute is facilitated through:
a working space closer to home? • bike drop-offs close to the office
• shower and locker facilities
• a strong workplace culture
towards health and fitness
5
Before commuting home,
you are alerted of a storm
and decide to commute home
using an on-demand bus
service as part of an improved
public transport network
2
Set by your preferences,
your alarm rings at a time
4
that considers the best
mode of transport for you During your working day, you
that day, based on weather, use additional office amenities
the environment and health provided to encourage active
impacts (walk, cycle, bus, commuting and reduce private
tube, car-sharing?) car use (onsite deliveries, laundry
solutions, dentist and doctor
services, etc.)
Figure 4
An example of changes to journeys based on sustainable transport
© Copyright: Atkins 2018
An increased use of sustainable transport could encourage
organisations to provide personal facilities within the office
building that would otherwise require a car ride to access,
for example dry cleaning, gyms and doctors. According
to Matthew Davis (Lecturer in Socio-Technical Systems,
University of Leeds), both companies’ corporate social
responsibility commitments and employees are providing a
push for employers to provide services for physical and mental
wellbeing. Companies are providing in-house facilities, striving
to make their workplaces healthy ‘destinations’ for employees.
THE IMPACT OF EVs ON OFFICE DESIGN

An increase in EV charging points in car parks is also expected
by 2030. The government is currently incentivising the roll-out
of charging points in office car parks through schemes like the
current Workplace Charging Scheme, a voucher-based scheme
that provides support towards the upfront costs of the purchase
and installation of EV charging points.
In the Autumn Budget 2017, the government signalled its
support for the growth of EVs and the installation of workplace
charging points by pledging to remove any benefit-in-kind
charge on the electricity that employers provide for employees
to charge EVs.41 However, capacity shortfall and other risks
to security of supply will be important as the demand for
electricity increases. An increase in investment will likely
be required to ensure that the grid is sufficiently robust to Copyright © Jeff Hu | iStock
withstand the increased pressures.
There are a number of EV charging models that could be
implemented by office owners, who need to consider whether
employees have their own personal charging points at home
or would want to take advantage of charging points at the
office. Office owners could also monetise EV charging models
through the leasing of charging points and charges to users. In
the future, as research and development continues into smart
‘vehicle to grid’ capability, connected vehicle batteries could
transfer power to the grid or to the building in order to manage
capacity intelligently.
Lyreco’s office and distribution complex in Telford is one
example of a workplace shifting towards the use of different
energy sources. At Telford, Lyreco has taken advantage of its
15 acre site to offer a whole-site energy solution, including
EV charging. Through an innovative 20 year power purchase
agreement with Addison Energy, one of the UK’s largest rooftop
photovoltaic (PV) cell systems has been retro-installed on the
building’s roof by EvoEnergy. The PV system has an annual
output exceeding 3.5 MW h and a battery energy storage
system comprising 10 Tesla Powerpacks. It generates and
stores energy for use on the site and is grid-enabled to allow
surplus energy to be sold to the grid. Three fast-charging 22 kW
Pod Point EV chargers, which can fully charge a car in under
an hour, have been installed in the car park for staff and visitor
use, and the local grid system has been future-proofed to allow Copyright © Anouchka | iStock
for the addition of more charging stations as demand grows
and staff switch to hybrid or fully electric vehicles.
THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORT ON CAR PARKS Car park
It is believed by several of those interviewed for this report that
there will be a reduction in the amount of parking space required
Today
in office buildings, especially in cities. This is already being
evidenced by Camden’s car-free and car-capped planning policies
for new developments, limiting the availability of parking.
Car park
The future also brings the opportunity for sharing, whether
cars or bikes, which will provide the flexibility to repurpose
5–10 years
car‑parking space, for example to create fitness areas.
Figure 5 illustrates the potential anticipated life cycle of a car
park over the next 20 years.
10–20 years Repurposed
REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS space
FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT Car park
While individual behavioural changes are key to increased use

Repurposed
of sustainable transport and active travel options, central and >20 years
space
local government have key roles to play both in incentivising
that change and in regulating for it.
Policy and regulation in London are cited in the research as Figure 5
Predicted car-park life cycle
prime enablers of public transport and the take-up of active
travel in London. The devolved transport authorities in © Copyright: Atkins 2018
Scotland and Wales are likewise implementing change through

policy and legislation for sustainable and active travel. For
example, since 2014, statutory duties have been imposed on the
Welsh Government and all Welsh local authorities to include
accompanying devolutionary City Deals and increased local
sustainability, active travel and environmental considerations
transport strategy and regulatory powers, will give cities the
(among other things) in all their policies and actions, and to
ability to adopt London-style measures.47
improve provision for, and actively promote, active journeys.42
• Increasing policy awareness: as the economic and
Current legal, regulatory and policy trends in the UK (mirrored
public health effects, the costs of poor air quality and poor
in varying degrees internationally) suggest that regulation will
health (in particular obesity), and the benefits of good
play an increasingly important role in changing behaviours in
employee wellbeing become better understood, it can be
this area. These trends include the following:
anticipated that there will be an increase in regulation in
• UK environmental legal requirements: the UK is these areas of sustainable and active travel to improve
committed by law to reducing CO2 and greenhouse gas outcomes.
emissions43 and improving air quality (in particular NOx
In terms of EVs, commercial property operators will likely
concentrations next to roads and in cities), with road
want to understand the regulatory aspects. Some clarity can
transport being targeted in particular.44–46
be expected from the Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill
• Increasing devolution: recent legislation for elected 2017–19 (currently before Parliament48), which will support
mayors in English cities outside of London, and the the development of standards and interoperability. ■
SCENARIO 2
THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE
The adoption of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) was
1,200,000
prioritised as a scenario due to the revolutionary
changes that it could have on optimising the
1,000,000
transport network, especially in urban centres,
No. of journeys per annum

and how it could be a major disruptor to current 800,000
commuting, working locations and working patterns.
600,000
THE FUTURE OF MaaS 400,000
MaaS is the trigger for transport change in this scenario,

200,000
with the focus being on journeys becoming faster, and more
efficient and comfortable. MaaS is a transport model focusing
0
on providing a single platform for combining all transportation September January May September January March
options and presenting them to the customer in a simple, 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
integrated manner – the emphasis being on how to get from A
Figure 6
to B rather than the individual transport modes and services. The number of journeys made using contactless payments in London
MaaS increases flexibility in commuting patterns as people travel
Source: Annual Report and Statement of Accounts 2015/16, Transport for London
with one flexible ticket which covers all modes, routes and times.
Journeys can be planned and updated across different modes and
operators, making users’ journeys increasingly seamless.49, 50
Tickets within a MaaS system also remove the commitment to
This is evident in Helsinki, Finland, where MaaS‑based a season ticket. Season tickets are considered to be restrictive
operations are currently taking place. Whim, a mobile and often obligate people to commute to the same destination
application created by MaaS Global, integrates journey every day. According to John Parkin (Professor of Transport
planning and payment across multiple transport modes into Engineering, University of West England), ‘Season tickets
one system. Users can subscribe to monthly payment plans presume a sort of economy we are moving away from. We are
through the app or simply pay as they go. It is believed that by already seeing smart ticketing shift away from the monolithic
making public transport simple to use and more flexible people approach of season tickets and towards an increasingly flexible
may become less reliant on using cars.51 approach (price capping on Oyster for example).’
Sampo Hietanen (CEO, MaaS Global), widely regarded as the A shift towards a seamless ticketing method is already underway
father of the MaaS concept, believes that ‘MaaS will reduce in London, where there is the option to use contactless
the need for private car use’. He also expects businesses to payments. Contactless payments were introduced on the London
move away from ‘outdated thinking around company cars and Underground, trams, DLR, London Overground and most National
towards mobility packages.’ Moreover, offices are likely to Rail services in London in September 2014.54 Figure 6 shows
provide an increasing amount of first/last-mile MaaS options how London is already moving towards an increasingly seamless
themselves, for example shuttle buses and cycle pools, to ticketing approach through the use of contactless payment.
improve office access and employee commutes.
Moreover, the availability of data allows app developers
MaaS will encourage a rise in car sharing, as app-based systems to provide real-time information to users, making journey
make it easier for people to organise and pool together to use planning increasingly efficient for commuters. Figure 7 shows
a car-share service. An example of this is Croydon Council’s that from 2015 to 2016 there was an increase in app developers
partnership with ZipCar, which provides exclusive use of accessing TfL open data, resulting in a greater number of
23 vehicles to council employees from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., Monday
to Friday. The pilot scheme saw a reduction in car use by
Croydon Council employees of 52%.52 In 2015–2016: In 2016–2017:
Along with car sharing, MaaS should contribute to the rise of ~8,200 ~11,000
on-demand transport, which will offer flexible connections developers accessed developers accessed
between routes where there is either a lack of transport provision TfL open data TfL open data
or the current provision is not sufficiently flexible for travellers’
needs. This concept has been demonstrated by Sn-ap, a start-up ~500 apps ~600 apps
running coaches between Nottingham and London, which only created using TfL open created using TfL open
operates when there is the demand for the journey. It began data on journey times data on journey times
operating in 2016, and by July 2017 had transported 25,000 Figure 7
passengers between the two locations.53 At present, many of The number of app developers accessing TfL open data
these shared systems are not integrated, but moving forward it Source: Annual Report and Statement of Accounts 2015/16 and
is foreseen that these systems will become integrated as part of a Annual Report and Statement of Accounts 2016/17, Transport for London
MaaS platform connecting these different services.
THE IMPACTS OF MaaS
ON OFFICE DEMAND
The growth of MaaS reflects and facilitates people moving towards
increasingly flexible working patterns and provides access to a
greater variety of working locations. This, coupled with wider
developments in technology and employee culture, means that
the purpose of the central office building is changing. Increasingly,
employees will travel to central urban offices for necessary
meetings and engagement but otherwise will consider alternative
workspace options that support shorter commutes and improved
work–life balance. Providing variety and choice in working spaces
can also benefit innovation in the workplace. A recent study from
Gensler (Workplace Trends UK 2016) showed that employees
Copyright © lowefoto | Alamy Stock Photo who have a choice of when and where they work are more likely
to rate their company as innovative. An interview with Philip Tidd
(Consulting Practice Area Lead, Gensler) highlighted that allowing
employees more autonomy and freedom in how and where they
work will allow innovation to flourish. MaaS will reinforce that
apps being created. It is expected that there will be continued
concept by applying the same freedom to travel.
development of new products and services to create an
efficient and smarter transport network. If commuter journeys One result of increased flexible working is offices seeing a shift
are increasingly connected, people’s journey quality should in the core hours of work and office demand (9 a.m. to 5 p.m.) as
improve, resulting in less pain-points. people opt to travel efficiently and comfortably outside of peak
hours. There are already groups of people adapting their working
day in order to improve their commute. Chris Bennett (Head of
HOW WOULD MaaS CHANGE Behaviour Change and Engagement, Sustrans) pointed out that
travel habits are starting to change, with people blending home,
DELAYS IN GETTING TO WORK? office and public locations. For example, working at home or in a
café near a train station from 9 to 11 a.m. and then commuting to
Figure 8 gives an example of how MaaS could influence the daily their office at a later time to avoid peak travel times, which staggers
working and commuting pattern of employees in the future. travel times and thus levels out the overall peak congestion effect.
1 3 6
You are woken up by your phone The efficiency of your journeys to
alerting you to train disruptions and and between work spaces during Your journey planner
expected delays to central office, and the day is maximised through: advises you that, based
your journey planner provides you with • using a single ticket that flexes on real-time updates,
alternative workspace destinations and across many bus, train and tube your return commute time
travel options routes on a pay-monthly basis will be in 1 hour, and so
• travel apps providing you with you decide to meet a
real-time information and friend for a coffee before
recommendations on your travelling home
travel options
5
More flexible delivery hours,
facilitated by MaaS, mean that
your workshop materials were
delivered overnight
2
You check your diary and
4
choose to work at a local Improved connectivity on
co-working space in the the bus and train means
morning and travel only for that you can prepare for
your afternoon workshop your workshop on your
when the disruptions are commute
resolved
Figure 8
An example of changes in journeys because of MaaS
© Copyright Atkins 2018
It is likely that MaaS will lead to a decreasing need for
car‑parking space as users will be able to easily adopt shared
rather than private modes of transport. Through providing
multi-modal efficiencies, MaaS should also contribute to
an uptake in cycling, walking and public transport use by
incorporating these transport modes into personalised
solutions offered to users, reducing the need for car-parking
facilities and requiring increased active commuting facilities
(showers, lockers, etc.). An innovative partnership between
British housing developer Moda Living and Uber has shown
how MaaS can incentivise people to move away from private
car ownership and parking. Free Uber rides are offered as
part of Moda’s rental model if tenants do not opt for a parking
space, and a similar incentive could be used by offices.
MaaS should also support flexible delivery times and locations
through integrating the transport network and reaching
locations previously not reachable by certain modes of
transport. This will be facilitated by data sharing to optimise
journey planning for deliveries, taking into consideration the
best routes and congestion, and will likely help maximise the
efficient use of the service yards of offices. Operators are already
looking at this business market and model through offerings
such as Uber’s on-demand delivery network UberRUSH.57
Copyright © Leo Patrizi | iStock
REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS
A second result is an overall increase in homeworking or local
FOR MaaS
working as employees make a shift away from working five A significant challenge in developing a MaaS system lies in
days a week in a central office hub. This is supported by flexible developing viable commercial models (including tax treatment,
ticketing, an aspect of MaaS, as users are no longer financially incentives for providers to work together and the possible future
tied to commuting to the same place every day as they were game changer that is connected and autonomous vehicles CAVs))
with a traditional season ticket. This could cause lower demand and a regulatory base capable of delivering the integrated seamless
overall for central offices and an increase in decentralised experience promised by the model. There is some distance to
workspaces, resulting in companies requiring smaller offices go before the UK regulatory landscape is able to accommodate
or flexible repurposing of central office space. There is already true MaaS solutions, which will most notably result in reduced
a trend towards smaller office space being increasingly ownership of private vehicles and a greater use of ride sharing.
desirable,55 encouraged by flexible planning policies.
Existing modes of public and shared ride transport are highly
MaaS offers flexible ticketing and adaptive real-time journey regulated. Truly integrated multi-modal services (e.g. TfL) are
planning, and can advise on the best commute for each user, the exception in the UK rather than the rule. Even in the case
thereby supporting shifts towards flexible working patterns of London, the ‘MaaS experience’ is largely confined to TfL’s
and a variety of agile office models, such as co-working spaces, own closed system. On the other hand, the likes of Citymapper
café working and hotelling. These agile co-working spaces offer arguably offer a more representative and complete picture
flexible solutions to working outside of traditional offices, bringing of the capital’s fragmented transport network incorporating
opportunities related to collaboration and a wider community.56 non-TfL controlled elements such as taxis, private hire vehicles
and emerging shared ride services. Outside of London, the
‘deregulated’ competitive transport market offers only a few
THE IMPACTS OF MaaS examples of integrated services and ticketing (even within
the same modes), which reflects the difficulties encountered
ON OFFICE DESIGN in the past when trying to create multi-modal integrated

transport systems.
In the future MaaS will facilitate flexible working practices, Buses, taxis and private hire vehicles are restricted by
providing people with the option to work from different regulation in the ways in which they can be used to
locations and spend less time in a single office. Offices are accommodate flexible routing or provide shared rides, let
already adapting to flexible working patterns with desk‑sharing alone respond dynamically to demand. The ways in which fares
initiatives, video calls and repurposing of office space. However, structures and concessionary fares are regulated in transport
to continue to attract employees, employers may choose to modes also restrict their ability to be flexible and operate
increase the facilities and amenities that are provided to improve within overall MaaS pricing structures.
the office culture and environment and thus encourage face-to-
face collaborative working. Examples of such facilities include The current Transport Select Committee inquiry into MaaS is
gyms, retail spaces and cafés, as people want to undertake social expected to report shortly on its ‘transformative potential’ and
and lifestyle activities closer to their place of work. how to overcome barriers to implementation.58 ■
SCENARIO 3
THE EMERGENCE OF CONNECTED
AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
The emergence of connected and autonomous
Connected vehicle (CV) technologies allow vehicles to talk to
vehicles (CAVs) was prioritised as a scenario due
each other and the wider world.
to the government’s strong agenda in progressing
the development of CAVs and the potential safety, Vehicles can be connected:
efficiency and sustainability improvements that • vehicle to vehicle (V2V) – vehicles communicate with each other
they could produce in the transport network. • vehicles to infrastructure (V2I) – connectivity between
vehicles and highway infrastructure
THE FUTURE OF CAVs • vehicles to everything (V2X) – connectivity between vehicles

and all appropriate technologies.59
This scenario forecasts the emergence of CAVs on the UK Autonomous vehicle (AV) – a vehicle that does not require
network by 2030. Within this timescale it is unlikely that fully a driver to operate. There are different levels of automation of
autonomous fleets will be on our roads. However, there is likely vehicles.59, 60 The levels, designated L0–L5, are described in
to be future-proofing of existing infrastructure in readiness Figure 9.
for the adoption of CAVs in the longer term. Vehicles will
also become increasingly connected before 2030.60 New cars Connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) – a vehicle
are already connected through platforms such as Google to which is both connected and autonomous. These two features
provide optimum journey planning/management, and vehicles are not reliant on each other, but vehicles with a combination
will increasingly be connected to intelligent infrastructure of the two are believed to offer safer, quicker and more efficient
(cooperative intelligent transport systems – C-ITS). movement.59
This will lead to the optimisation of traffic flow and, inevitably,
faster journeys by car. Figure 9 shows the predicted increase,
based on current trends, in the production of CAVs in the UK.60
There has been significant investment in research and
The forecasts show that all vehicles produced in the UK by
development projects geared towards preparing the UK for the
2030 will have at least L3 (conditional automation where the
adoption of CAVs. To date, the government has allocated over
driver does not need to monitor driving but must always be in
£100 million of funding to champion CAVs.61
a position to resume control if need be) technologies embedded
in them and that there will be a 25% penetration of fully In the shorter term, it is expected by those interviewed that
autonomous vehicles by 2030. passenger CAVs will first serve campus-style business parks
L0, L1 and L2
Connected L4 and L5
Little or no automation. As levels L3
Vehicles can communicate between High automation. Drivers do not have
increase, so does automation. Drivers Drivers do not have to monitor the
each other and additional to monitor the vehicle, the system
are required to do less of the driving, automated driving but must be able
infrastructure. Drivers are performs all the driving. L5 vehicles
but drivers are still responsible for to take control at any time.
still fully responsible do not require a driver.
monitoring the vehicle.
2.5
Connected
L0, L1 and L2
2.0 L3
UK production (millions)
L4 and L5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2015 2017 2020 2022 2025 2027 2030
Figure 9
Projected production of CAVs in the UK, 2015–2030
Source: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles – The UK Economic Opportunity, KPMG, 2015
or office developments in controlled environments, and CAV underway in the GATEway Project, in which Ocado is delivering
taxis could also form a component of this controlled ecosystem. shopping ordered online. The customer is notified when the
An example of where the use of CAVs has been trialled is the CargoPod is loaded at a ‘mobile warehouse’ located around a
La Défence business district in Paris. In July 2017, three mile from their home, and again once the vehicle has reached
autonomous electric shuttles were introduced into the business their front door. The customer then presses a button to unlock
park in order to transport commuters, offering first/last-mile their box and collect their shopping bag.64 In addition, early in
journey solutions. The trial had positive reviews, with 97% 2018 plans were announced of a Toyota/Pizza Hut partnership
of users saying they liked it and with 35,000 users in the first that could lead to pizza delivery in autonomous vehicles.65 The
4 months of the trial,62 demonstrating that CAVs have the concept of drone delivery (at least small packages) is also likely
potential to offer first/last-mile commuting solutions. to be realised by Amazon, which is already successfully trialling
This offer of first/last-mile transportation is something John its Prime Air drone delivery service in Cambridge by delivering
Parkin (Professor of Transport Engineering, University of a TV streaming stick and bag of popcorn directly to the garden
West England) believes ‘employers will use in order to pick up of a nearby customer.66
their employees in the morning’. This view is also supported Moving past 2030, as the CAVs become more affordable and
by Councillor Colin Hunt (South Gloucestershire Cabinet accepted, the number of such vehicles on our roads is likely
Member), who sees autonomous pods as a first/last-mile to increase, offering mobility solutions for a range of people
solution within the 2030 timeframe. within both urban and suburban locations. This is already
Drones are also a type of CAV, and their numbers are expected evidenced in Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, for example, where
to multiply over the next 12 years at an increasing pace.63 the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the
Offices will need to adapt delivery points outside their buildings Chinese ICONIQ Motors electric vehicle company are testing
to accommodate drone landing, for example through the autonomous driving concepts. ICONIQ is displaying its L5
conversion of roof space or the provision of a designated space (fully autonomous) driving concept, which will undergo testing
at ground level. Receptions will need to be well connected to in Masdar City throughout 2018.67
these spaces to facilitate the despatch and collection of deliveries.
Drone deliveries will likely be available throughout the working
day and evening, especially in offices outside city centres; drone
flying regulation is currently stricter in congested areas. HOW COULD CAVs CHANGE
CAVs and the possibility of 24/7 delivery of goods allows
for new delivery models and increased efficiency of delivery
YOUR JOURNEY?
to offices, including off-site handling locations or mobile Figure 10 gives an example of how CAVs could influence
warehousing combined with last-mile solutions. In Greenwich, the daily working and commuting pattern of employees in
a trial of autonomous CargoPods for deliveries is already the future.
4
CAV drive-in areas deliver
1 5
You tell your phone to you to your office door, and
get the CAV car ready the CAV parks itself at the Drone deliveries to
for your commute closest available parking your building roof
space provide your lunch
and afternoon coffee
6
You want to be home in
time for the end of school,
so you take your conference
calls while commuting home
in your CAV
2
You leave your house
later as your working
3
day starts in your CAV Your vehicle updates
you that you will get
to work at your
expected time
7
You arrange a separate
CAV, with safety features,
to pick up your kids from
school, so that the family
all arrive home at 5 p.m.
to start the evening
Figure 10
An example of changes to journeys due to use of CAVs
© Copyright Atkins 2018
THE IMPACT OF CAVs ON
OFFICE DEMAND
The future demand for offices is challenging to model, and the
impact of CAVs on this demand could be very mixed. There
could be a rise in office demand as CAVs make travel easier and
more comfortable. Employers may be able to better support
employee commutes through the use of autonomous buses,
facilitating travel to offices from transport hubs. Using CAVs to
provide first/last-mile transport in rural areas could also ease
many commutes and encourage office demand.
CAVs could also improve access links for many. They may
increase demand for out-of-town offices, which could not
previously be reached by public transport, and improve office
access for those who cannot drive or take public transport
easily (e.g. the elderly and those with disabilities). This
expected change is being supported by trials that are currently
underway. In Cambridge, autonomous vehicles are being tested Copyright © Chesky W | iStock
to act as buses to connect those using the Trumpington Park
and Ride and Cambridge Station, passing through Cambridge
Biomedical Addenbrooke Campus.68
On the other hand, CAVs facilitate agile working, as people can
work while travelling. According to Dr Robert Piechocki (Reader
in Wireless Connectivity, University of Bristol), ‘Ultra reliable
and secure connectivity for CAVs is the key enabler of future
smart cooperative mobility. In addition, ultrafast connectivity
will underpin the vision of mobile CAV offices. Gigabit per
second speeds are possible, since vehicles are not restricted
by small dimensions or power consumption as pocket-size
smartphones are.’ This could include ‘the opportunity to catch
up on emails, etc., and carry last-minute prep for a meeting or
presentation, which might improve productivity’, says Councillor
Colin Hunt (South Gloucestershire Cabinet Member). Starting
the working day in a CAV is likely to reduce the time spent in the
office and increase agile work patterns, as well as staggering peak
travel times and reducing congestion.
CAVs should also increase access to multiple working locations,
which will encourage the flexibility and repurposing of office
space, especially in central locations, to make best use of buildings.
Given the potential ease and efficiencies offered by CAV
Copyright © Phonlamai Photo | Shutterstock
commuting, as deployment increases, office locations that are
prepared for CAVs may see a boost in demand. An office that
is prepared for CAVs would have drop-off points close to the
entrance and waiting areas for CAVs, as well as charging points
or ready access to charging points close by. into an office model with less parking space and more drop-
off/pick-up points for CAVs, with the long-term vision for
CAVs being that no parking should be necessary if vehicles
THE IMPACT OF CAVs ON are fully autonomous. As a proportion of CAVs are likely to be
electrically powered, charging points would also need to be
OFFICE DESIGN included in any parking spaces or waiting areas. Redesign of
roof space for drone deliveries is likely to become increasingly
The impact of CAVs on office design is likely to be limited prior to common, and drop-off points or automated secure internal
2030. The first infrastructure changes will be seen in controlled loading bays could be used for CAV deliveries out of hours.
environments, such as business parks, airports, etc., where CAVs
Future-proofing of office buildings for CAVs is likely to be
can be safely integrated into the network. Parking and goods
piecemeal, with new or upgraded building plans taking CAV
delivery and storage facilities will likely see the greatest changes
developments into consideration. This may include drop-off
from increased CAV use, and roof space could be redesigned in
areas, waiting bays and EV charging points. According to Nick
due course to allow for drone delivery, where possible.
Clay (Head of Homologation and Quality, Arrival), there would
CAV infrastructure changes already apparent in controlled also need to be a change in the handling and rationalisation of
environments will likely start to be applied to the wider public deliveries and stock management at peripheral off-site locations,
network towards 2050. Many office buildings will likely evolve allowing for fewer deliveries coming into central locations.
REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS fuel. Work is currently underway to understand which CAV
data can legally be made available, for what purpose and
FOR CAVs how it should be secured.71
• The appropriate regulation of the mass-scale deployment
As an emerging industry, the pace of regulatory development
of drones, in particular for the carriage of small packages
for CAVs is currently matching that of the technology
(e.g. Amazon’s Prime Air concept72), and legal issues
development. The UK government has made the development
around regulated airspace interaction, privacy and trespass.
of legislation, regulations and standards a key priority in
The Drone (Regulation) Bill 2017–19, the first dedicated
the development of CAVs from the outset. This includes the
UK legislative proposals for drones, was introduced into
laying down of protocols and codes of guidance for the current
Parliament in 2017.73
experimental trials being undertaken on UK roads.69
As we continue to learn from the current CAV and drone trials
CAVs have the potential to reduce significantly some of the
(many co-funded by the government's innovation funding
risk levels associated with driving, most notably the primary
agency Innovate UK), the government has indicated that it
cause of fatalities – human error. However, they also import
is ready to make legislative changes both to accommodate
new and additional risks and issues that need to be understood
more advanced testing of CAV technology and to prepare for
and appropriately regulated in order to manage unacceptable
eventual public deployment of CAVs. This regulatory stance is
risks while facilitating innovation in emerging data, technology,
backed up by economic policy, with the underlying technology
connectivity and commercial models. Key issues that CAV and
forming a core part of the government’s industrial strategy
drone projects are already looking into today include:
and contributing solutions to all four of the Grand Challenges
• The liability and insurance situation around the L3 and L4 identified by the government: artificial intelligence, clean
automated vehicles (which retain the capacity to hand over growth, mobility and ageing society.
operational control between the vehicle and the driver, and
Recognising the crucial importance of regulatory reform
vice versa) during the critical handover period. Reports
facilitating these new technologies, the Law Commission of
from CAV trials have already fed into the development of
England and Wales announced in December 2017 (at the
the Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill 2017–19 going
instigation of the government’s Centre for Connected and
through Parliament,48 which will extend the compulsory
Autonomous Vehicles, CCAV) that it would initiate a three-year
motor insurance regime to include automated vehicles and
review of legislation from February 2018 to deliver a package
fix the insurer with primary third-party liability.70
of regulatory reforms to achieve UK objectives of being a world
• Understanding the phenomenal amounts of data gathered leader in this area.74 The recommendations and regulatory
and generated by CAVs and drones and how this can be reform package will coincide with the 2021 date by which the
used, managed and kept secure in a manner that balances government has pledged that genuine autonomous vehicles will
the needs of stakeholders in a world where data are the new be deployed on UK roads.75 ■
Copyright © Tramino | iStock
FUTURE TRANSPORT INFLUENCING
OFFICE DEMAND
FORECASTING FUTURE
TRANSPORT CHANGES Sustainable transport
When overlaying the transport changes identified in our three
Cyling infrastructure improvements
scenarios in a Venn diagram (Figure 11), the trends forecast by
multiple scenarios become evident. This means that the future
transport changes with the highest probability of occurring can
be identified. Uptake in
active travel
Increase Improved transport and public
It is highly likely that improvements in local and national infrastructure
in electric transport
transport infrastructure will be made by 2030. Developments vehicles Increased shared journeys
such as HS2, Crossrail and the Northern Powerhouse mean Decreased car use and More varied
ownership commuting
that people will be able to make longer journeys faster and patterns
Reduced peak congestion
more comfortably. This could mean an increase in long-haul Connectivity Offices provide last-mile solutions
commutes, but this will be counterbalanced by technological between Single
Increased commuting efficiency
vehicles smart
developments in communications facilitating effective and Improved communications tickets
seamless remote meetings. Connected and More multi-modal journeys
autonomous Increased data sharing Mobility as
A decrease in car use and ownership should be driven by vehicles a Service
several transport changes: Increased night deliveries
CAVs in Seamless
• an improved public transport network controlled Drone deliveries transport
environments integration
• an increased uptake of sustainable transport and shared
journeys
• offices providing last-mile solutions, making offices
Figure 11
increasingly accessible by public transport. Venn diagram showing overlapping transport changes
This shift away from private car use, alongside varied commuting © Copyright Atkins 2018
patterns, is likely to support a decrease in congestion, especially
at peak times. Improved data sharing will provide real-time
updates on the best routes and times to travel, and should Increased
variety of
make multi-modal travel accessible and efficient. work locations
Figure 11 also highlights improved communications and Reduced desk Reduced core
connectivity as a high-probability change, which is supported demand office hours
by the government’s position that there should be better
connectivity for all. New broadband, mobile coverage and 5G
technologies will create improvements surrounding transport Increased Increased
connections and routes. It is expected that 90% of rail journeys agile working home-working
will benefit from improved Wi-Fi connections by the end of
2018 (Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, 2017).
This connectivity will provide more people with the option to
work during their commute, or work from flexible workspaces. Impacts on
office demand
A NEW MODEL FOR

OFFICE DEMAND Increased
co-working
Multi-use/
repurposing
of workspace
Figure 12 summarises the impacts that future transport trends
could have on office demand, as identified within the three
scenarios. Increasing demand More flexible
on office and delivery times
The ‘purpose’ of the office is evolving, and employees and their wellbeing culture Offices as and locations
employers increasingly want an environment that encourages collaborative
spaces
them to interact and collaborate. They are moving away from
a routine of visiting office headquarters five days a week, and Figure 12
will carefully consider their reason for commuting to a central Impacts of future transport trends on office demand
location. Employee tolerance for unproductive travel through © Copyright Atkins 2018
congested commuting will likely fall away.
The fact that all the key demand impacts relate to increasingly has shown them to be less willing to make journeys they deem
flexible working patterns, such as agile working, co-working unnecessary. Also to be taken into consideration when focusing
and home-working, evidences this shift in office purpose. on wellbeing is the ageing population in the UK. By 2030 there
Transportation changes, as well as other factors, such as the will be increased numbers of people still working in their sixties
gig economy, technology and cultural attitudes, are leading and seventies, which will require organisations to be flexible in
to less rigidity around office routine. Reduced core office terms of working and commuting patterns, and to ensure they
hours, activity-based working and reduced desk demand have adequate facilities to accommodate older age groups.
are expected consequences of this. Subsequently, flexible
offices are needed to cater for this evolution in working styles, The analysis suggests that the UK workforce is likely to move
leading to increased multi-use or repurposing of workspace. towards an increasingly decentralised office ecosystem, where
Organisations need to consider future-proofing offices such employees will work in multiple workspaces across the week
that they can expand or reduce the amount of office space in a variety of locations. This could include commuting to the
according to actual demand. Changing use of space will likely organisation’s central hub when necessary for meetings, but
become increasingly common as amenities and building opting to work from home, co-working locations, hotelling
functions adapt to suit the specific demographics of office user facilities and office cafés for the remainder of the week.
and the requirements of offices over time. Figure 13 illustrates this evolving decentralised office ecosystem.
The increasing demand for improved office wellbeing and The adoption of this decentralised approach is likely to vary
culture is strongly linked to a flexible working approach. There depending on the location of the central office as well as the
is already increasing consciousness about work–life balance and length of employees’ commute to that office. For example,
stress in the workplace, and the provision of flexible transport it would be an attractive model for employees commuting
options and ways of working mean that people would be able regularly to suburban offices who are limited to travelling by
to tailor their working day to suit their personal lives, making car. Conversely, urban offices next to transport hubs may be
travel and workplace choices to maximise wellbeing. Millennials impacted to a lesser extent, as employees are able to commute
are especially conscious of their work–life balance, and evidence with relative ease on a daily basis. ■
Local incubator
Co-working
Working from home
Central hub Home

(near transport link)
Library space Hotelling
Café working
Figure 13
The decentralised office ecosystem
Copyright © Atkins 2018
FUTURE TRANSPORT SHAPING OFFICE DESIGN
To summarise the impact of future transport
changes on office design, two schematics were
REDESIGNING URBAN OFFICES
considered: Figure 14 demonstrates how better connected urban transport
systems will likely change commuting, working and logistics
• an urban office building, used as company’s patterns.
central office These design changes can be related back to our three transport
scenarios as described below.
• a suburban office building, used as company’s
central office.
The scenarios forecast that the company central office, whether THE ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
urban or suburban, will transition to a strongly defined Sustainable transport is already making incremental changes
‘headquarter model’ used for meetings and client-facing to our offices today. Increasingly, entry into the building could
activities, and encompass increasing collaborative working be from underground, where there space has been created for
space. Large offices may build all-inclusive hubs of amenities bike parking and EVs. Focusing on facilities, there is likely to be
in order to continue attracting employees and tenants to a decrease in car-parking space (although this will be balanced
a workspace, taking into consideration the wider range of by the growing use of EVs), more EV charging points, and an
available viable working locations. increase in bike parking, lockers and changing facilities.
Facilities spaces, drones

for deliveries to roof
Living quarters,
Connectivity between
sleeping pods
occupiers from different
parts of the building
Heart and hub

of the building
Staff meeting,
seminars and
collaboration
Co-working
incubator
spaces
Client engagement
meeting suite
Drop-off zone
and waiting area
Good access to
public transport
Electric vehicle
charging Bike parking facilities
Figure 14
An urban hub
An emphasis on fitness and wellbeing should support the
provision of additional facilities that would otherwise need a CASE STUDY
car ride, such as visits to the laundrette, doctor and post office.
Employers are making their workplaces healthier destinations,
and spare office floorspace may also be repurposed as green An urban hub
space or fitness areas. White Collar Factory, London
THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE

As discussed earlier in this report, MaaS will further encourage
flexible working patterns. Flexible working patterns are impacting
office design through additional desk-sharing initiatives, video
calls and office sleeping quarters. As people travel to the office for
meetings and engagement, improved collaborative spaces and
meeting areas will likely be provided in the heart of the building,
influenced by the changing purpose of office buildings.
Increasingly, offices are likely to be repurposed and use modular
building sections, with increased facilities and more varied
workspaces throughout the building. Innovative solutions for
expanding and contracting the quantum of floorspace should
emerge, as adaptable interiors based on changing occupant
requirements will be increasingly important for the effective use
of floorspace.
To continue attracting employees to central offices, employers
may supply additional amenities such as cafés and crèches to
support employees’ work–life balance. This model is likely
to appeal to smaller companies that are renting smaller floor
areas within a larger building and would benefit from shared
building amenities. Courtesy of Derwent London
MaaS also facilitates efficient journeys through improved data

sharing and journey planning. This should lead to flexible
delivery locations at offices and efficient use of drop-off areas OVERVIEW
and service yards. These drop-off areas would also be required Derwent’s White Collar Factory is an office development that
by commuters using on-demand public transport and first/ is supported by transport regeneration and investment. It is a
last-mile transport services. Where the MaaS solution fully complex of six buildings at Old Street Yard, providing new office
integrates with active travel options (particularly first/last space for the growing Tech City in Shoreditch.
mile), it will again reinforce the need to improve supporting
amenity facilities and cycle parking. KEY FEATURES
• Offices, studios, incubator space, restaurants and apartments,
and a new area of public realm.
THE EMERGENCE OF CAVs
• Strategically located by Old Street roundabout, which is the
As previously mentioned, changes in building design in relation
centre of an extensive Transport for London regeneration project
to CAVs are likely to be limited in the short term. However,
and well connected to the Crossrail line, due to open in 2018.
increasingly there will be changes in building infrastructure to
take into consideration the emergence of CAVs. The reduction • Secure parking for more than 250 bikes, showers, lockers and
in car-parking space required, already initiated through a roof-top running track.
sustainable transport and MaaS, will likely reduce further with
CAVs facilitating shared journeys. It is likely that CAVs will be PROPOSED BENEFITS
electric, and so will further contribute to the demand for and The White Collar Factory location has excellent access to public
roll-out of electric charging points. transport and safer cycling routes, facilitating commutes to the
Dedicated drop-off areas for CAVs will likely be supplied, and office. The office itself has a range of working space allowing
these should be tailored to allow for automated secure loading for personal time and activities in the office, with the aim of
and deliveries. Building roof space will also increasingly be improving wellbeing.
cleared and repurposed for drone deliveries, with collection
points installed within the building.
REDESIGNING SUBURBAN bus facilities may be introduced to support first/last-mile
journeys for employees, which is especially important for
OFFICES suburban offices where transport links are likely to be weaker.
The additional space in suburban offices also brings greater
The suburban office schematic exhibits similar changes to the
opportunity to provide personal services, such as food
urban office model, but with the space to develop horizontally
markets, living quarters, crèche facilities and doctors. A living
(Figure 15).
quarter is included to support the variety of working hours
The heart of the building is still a key collaboration and that employees want. Offering these additional facilities is
engagement area, and social and wellbeing spaces such as particularly important for suburban offices, as employees may
cafés, landscaped roof and vegetable gardens are fundamental be less inclined to travel to their locations regularly due to
to this design. These design changes came through strongly in poorer transport links. Car-parking space is likely to be shared
both the sustainable transport and MaaS scenarios. by a collection of organisations using the hub, as well as by
those using nearby amenities. ■
Transport facilities are also likely to be adapted to provide for
an increase in EVs, cycle parking and drop-off areas. Shuttle
Landscaped roof
Co-working
incubator spaces Living quarters
Staff café with
360° green views
Additional staff
amenities Drop-off zone
(e.g. doctor, bank) and waiting
area
Use of drones
and CAVs for
deliveries
Interaction
with nature
Cycle parks Parking for electric cars

Showers and changing rooms
Figure 15
A suburban hub
CASE STUDY
A suburban hub
Facebook, Menlo Park, California
Copyright © Jason Doiy | iStock
OVERVIEW • Parking for private vehicles, a free private shuttle for employees
Suburban business parks were the norm in the 1960s as many to connect to the nearest train stations and urban centres,
families moved to the suburbs for home ownership. Since the with Wi‑Fi on board, allowing employees to work during their
1990s, these out-of-town locations have been in decline, with many commute; and company bicycles for travel to nearby buildings.
companies relocating to urban centres and upgrading their offices. Facebook is planning to expand the development and create
However, large multi-national companies are beginning to reverse a complex of buildings, or a village, with additional transport
this trend. Some of the best known of these are located in Menlo connections and a network of public pedestrian and cycle pathways
Park, California, the location of many of the tech giants such as with the aim of connecting a currently disconnected suburban area.
Apple, Google and Facebook, who have invested heavily in large
complexes in recent years. In 2017, Facebook moved into a new PROPOSED BENEFITS
building, designed by Frank Gehry Architects, in Menlo Park.
This model aims to provide a mix of uses and additional amenities
for employees that simultaneously allow Facebook to co-locate all
KEY FEATURES staff and create campus- or village-type developments that encourage
• Accommodates over 2,800 employees. staff to stay on site. These campus-style developments would be well
• A large single-level, open-plan office, raised to allow the entire suited to incorporating CAVs up to and beyond 2030 as a means of
ground floor to act as a car park. transportation throughout the large complexes.
• Co-location of all staff on a single campus that includes all

the benefits and amenities of a community to appeal to the
company’s workforce.
GUIDANCE
SUMMARY
A variety of stakeholders are likely to be affected by the impacts
of transport changes on the evolution of offices. Primarily it
must be considered whether employees want to adapt their
work routines when provided with more options of office hours
and location, as well as whether employers will encourage or
resist change to working patterns. Planners, developers and
landlords will need to react to changing requirements for office
buildings, ensuring that they are sufficiently future-proofed to
remain attractive workspaces in the long term. Regulators need
to keep pace with transport changes to make sure that the right
policies underpin safe and efficient transport technologies,
while technology developers must ensure that a certain level of
security and resilience of office networks is maintained as they
become more complex and decentralised.
This report offers recommendations for the key stakeholder
groups that need to be aware of shifting trends in and priorities
for office models up to and beyond 2030. Sea Containers, 18 Upper Ground, London
Courtesy of Ogilvey Group UK and MEC/BDG Architecture + Design
EMPLOYEES
Employees should have increasing flexibility around their preferences. The future of transport is not only a concern of
working location and routine, and must consider the positive the young office-working population, as one can speculate
and negative impacts this could have on their work–life that decreasing tolerance for unproductive travel in an age of
balance. increasing travel convenience and connectivity will be shared
The findings of this report highlight that employees are across employee age groups.
likely to have increasing choice about when and where they Unions will also need to be considered in changes to office
choose to carry out their office work. It is forecast that office demand and design, as their view could make them a driver or
employees are likely to have increasing power and options over blocker of change. Their role and interest will differ depending
commuting and working patterns, and their working day will be on the type and sector of work, but they will likely have a
increasingly tailored to their needs and preferences. It is often substantial influence if changes to working practices could
considered that changes to more flexible working practices will affect the terms and conditions in employee contracts. For
contribute to a better work–life balance, as people are able to example, employees may no longer be needing a core office to
flex their work routine around activities and priorities outside work from, but this could be viewed as a reduction in employee
of work (e.g. childcare, gym classes and local amenities). rights. Employers should engage early on with unions to
Companies also stand to make productivity gains if they can provide a seamless evolution towards future office scenarios.
eliminate the proportion of unproductive travel time, whether
freed-up time is dedicated to work or to health and wellbeing
activity.
Nonetheless, it must also be considered that the commute
EMPLOYERS
has traditionally been the boundary between work and home. Employers will likely need to embrace the flexibility of their
With increased home-working, co-working closer to home and office spaces, and respond to the changing requirements of
working during commuting time the unintended consequence their employees by facilitating decentralised ways of working.
of continually blurring the lines between work and home
With regard to the expected transport changes by 2030, this
should be a major consideration for employees. There is likely
report recommends that employers should consider proactively
to be a preference by some to maintain a clear separation
supporting sustainable, efficient and comfortable commuting for
between work and personal life, and a desire to travel to a
their employees in order to gain an advantage over competing
central office and work standard office hours for five days
organisations. The growing importance of and emphasis on
a week. Human behaviours and preferences are a common
employee wellbeing means that employers will be increasingly
reason why expected change is not realised, and it is key for
valued for facilitating shared journeys, flexible commuting
the industry to carry out further research into the proportion
patterns and last-mile provision of transport to offices.
of employees that would want a more decentralised, flexible
approach to work versus those who want a standard work Similarly, it is recommended that organisations adapt to agile
routine. As the workforce is anticipated to increasingly reflect working locations and varied working hours for employees to
an older demographic in future, the same effort should be put demonstrate the value that they put on work–life balance and
into researching and understanding the needs of this workforce employee wellbeing. This is likely to support the attraction
category as those of millennials, including their transport and retention of employees. This may be more difficult for
some employers than others, depending on the requirement
for employees to work together in a central location. Likewise,
some employers may struggle with the increased level of
autonomy and trust needed with a decentralised working
pattern, but these organisations would risk losing employees
with their rigid approach to office work.
There is tension between the increasing flexibility requirements
of employees and the need of employers to maintain at least
a core working environment and workforce presence in the
office throughout what is considered the traditional working
day. This meets not only core business needs and resilience
but also likely the needs of some of the workforce who actively
prefer a traditional working day in an office. Whatever the
motivation, however, it is in the employer’s interest to take an
active interest in how their employees travel to and from the Copyright © Peter Howell | iStock
office, and when they choose to, because it is part of the overall
working experience.
In providing flexible working spaces and routines for their
employees, employers may need to liaise with landlords and
work with local business networks to agree reduced or shared
desk space, larger open meeting areas and flexible office hours.
To future-proof their leases, employers should make sure
that they include the ability to repurpose office space, and
potentially have the opportunity to grant sub-leases. They may
also need to hold multiple leases over a variety of locations to
accommodate employees.
TRANSPORT AND CITY PLANNERS

Transport and city planners need to consider how future
transport technologies will likely affect office demand and
supply in their area in order to future-proof the location and
design of new infrastructure.
Copyright © Chesky | Shutterstock
Transport planners and planning authorities need to consider
how the expected changes to office demand and design raised in
this report will have wider implications on city infrastructure.
As transport powers are increasingly devolved to combined
authorities and others, such as those enjoyed by Transport for
London (TfL), opportunities should arise for planners to shape Commuting patterns have long dominated the peak travel
the pattern of mobility in their area in ways they have not been requirement, which has a disproportionate effect on local
able to before. transport systems and infrastructure, and changes to how the
workforce travels directly impacts on the work of transport and
The transport changes discussed in this report include the
city planners. In the future, this relationship is likely to become
prospect of increasing use of active travel and sustainable and
increasingly connected, real-time and interdependent as offices
public transport, as well as an overall uptake in multi-modal
journeys, especially in the cities. Planning authorities will become smarter and potentially part of the overall ‘internet of
need to put forward infrastructure improvements and source things’, feeding in data to a cooperative intelligent transport
funding to meet this trend, for example increased investment system.
in cycling infrastructure, supporting Sustainable Travel Towns
developments and car-free areas. They will also need to
consider how new technologies could impact the ways that our
towns and cities function, for example drones, EVs and CAVs,
BUILDING DEVELOPERS
and include the future-proofing of new infrastructure ready Building developers will likely need to incorporate wider
for the emergence of these technologies. This could include, permitted uses for buildings and assess how the design will
for example, a reduction in parking space and an increase in allow for future expansion and contraction to flex with demand.
accessible roof areas.
Due to the increasing demand for flexible working patterns
A further consideration for city planners will be how to best and locations from employees, developers should set the tone
support integrated services and ticketing, which should allow for this flexibility in their applications for planning consent by
MaaS to flourish. Currently, transport regulation, particularly requesting wider permitted uses for the buildings. This could
outside the capital, is a blocker to MaaS, and city and transport ensure that landlords can respond quickly to the demands of
planners should consider ticketing systems as part of the tenants without having to continually seek permission to do
overall transport strategies and planning moving forwards. so, making their leasing packages increasingly attractive. As
cafés and other forms of meeting spaces are introduced into
the existing office, wider planning applications from the outset
could allow landlords to seamlessly move with the needs of
their tenants.
Developers may also need to consider the physical
manifestation of the building, and the potential to use modular
building methods that allow for expansion and contraction
of building space. This is heavily interlinked with the need
for buildings to be future-proofed in readiness for changes
in transport technology such as CAVs. Office construction
projects will need to take into account the type of works to be
undertaken, and modify standard construction documents
accordingly (e.g. the Joint Contracts Tribunal 2016) for minor
and intermediate works.
As an industry based on competitive procurement models, the Copyright © John Keates | Alamy Stock Photo
construction industry is traditionally risk-averse and takes a
conservative approach to design and delivery. For such new
technologies to be fully embraced by the UK construction
industry there needs to be continued research into the significant
legal and regulatory changes that are likely to be required. familiar list of standard services that the landlord commits to
supply within a multi-occupied office building is likely to evolve.
For those working with major development sites or campus-
style developments, the inherent characteristics of such sites To facilitate the seamless transition between the chosen mode
mean that opportunities already exist for creative thinking and of transport and the physical office space, landlords may
research and development into future transport technology benefit from extending services to provide transport options
and bespoke first/last-mile solutions to meet emerging to connect buildings in different locations or from connecting
transport needs (including CAV solutions such as the Heathrow buildings directly to transport hubs.
pod system). By design, there is an opportunity not just to
future‑proof such developments but also to position and
market them to changing workforce requirements and to
showcase forward-thinking employers and occupiers. TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPERS
Technology developers must ensure that a sufficient level of
security and resilience is developed alongside new transport
LANDLORDS technologies to protect organisations’ networks.
The largest technology development required to support the
Landlords will likely need to adopt new tenancy models and
transport and office changes raised in this report is connectivity.
provide increased occupier services to remain competitive as
There will need to be robust and resilient connectivity between
buildings adapt to new demands of the occupational market.
different vehicles and modes of transport, as well as a variety of
This report concludes that demand for office space is likely to workspaces for people to work effectively together. Increasing
be increasingly influenced by a building’s office flexibility and amounts of data are likely to be used to improve decision-
ability to adapt to new demands of the occupational market, making around commuting and modes of transport, and
and therefore landlords may need to offer more attractive combining technologies and information will become increasingly
packages and accommodate the needs of a broader range of sophisticated, for example combining office availability with travel
stakeholders. Philip Tidd (Consulting Practice Area Lead, information. Communication channels between workspaces need
Gensler) advised that: ‘Many major occupiers are looking to to continue to progress to provide a high-quality experience for
move away from restrictive tenancy models, and will be looking remote employee engagement. Technologies within the office
at upcoming lease breaks to consider new co-location models should also adapt to the new building purposes, for example
and flexible working models to intensify space use.’ introducing a gym into the office building would need new types of
technology to be integrated with existing ones.
Occupational lease terms would need to be as flexible as the
working spaces that the office buildings provide. This may With this increasing level of connectivity and communications,
result in a shift away from the concept of leasing space for technology developers must ensure a certain level of security
fixed terms and into pure commercial contracts governing the and resilience for organisations. The growth in remote,
provision of ‘space as a service’. Those drafting longer term complex networks increases the chance of hacking and cyber-
occupational documentation would need to build in future- attacks, and companies will need assurance that their data and
proofing, with a key focus being on flexibility to ensure that information are sufficiently protected. Drones are an example
the lease accommodates landlord and tenants’ needs as they where technology providers will need to provide surveillance,
evolve. Successful landlords are likely to be those that move navigation and communication technologies to ensure a certain
away from the conventional landlord and tenant model and are level of network integrity.
prepared to adopt a partnering approach with occupiers.
As a next step, it is recommended that further research is
Landlords are likely to be under increased pressure to provide carried out to study the implications of significantly increased
an enhanced range of services. To many occupiers Wi-Fi bandwidth requirements on network providers, caused by more
connectivity, reliability and speed will be business critical. The flexible and decentralised working patterns.
POLICY MAKERS AND Regulators should proceed cautiously on some of the major
transport innovations being introduced to manage the transition
REGULATORS between modes or between legacy and new technology. The
growing transport trends identified in this report move society
Policy makers and regulators should try to progress legislation towards active and public transport modes. However, regulators
in line with new transport technologies, developing robust need to take care where individuals, for economic, health or
policies without constraining innovation. personal mobility reasons, are unable to use these transport
modes easily. If not managed, legislation could unnecessarily
In the case of the transport changes highlighted in this report,
constrain workforce access to workplaces within regulated zones,
businesses, organisations and individuals are expected (for
creating significant unintended consequences. Policy makers and
many reasons) to progress change quicker than regulations
regulators should, therefore, always consult widely, and consider
will be able to provide for. However, that is not to downplay
in particular the views of organisations situated in areas directly
the influence that policy and regulations can have in setting
affected by transport changes.
the tone, prescribing minimum measures or long-stop dates
and, in some cases, making possible ambitious accelerated Major developments in the transport industry, such as MaaS
proposals. The evidence compiled for this report confirms that and CAVs, give the UK the opportunity to lead in regulatory
public authorities already have a significant role to play in the thinking and standardisation. Significant and quite radical
provision of transport infrastructure and demand/capacity regulatory changes are likely to be required by 2030 if
management (e.g. levies and charges for entering zones or such transport developments are to be implemented, and
parking). The levers that already exist are likely to be expanded regulators will want to play a key role in the extensive research,
on in the future as policy allows authorities to take increasingly development and feasibility studies that the UK will continue
active roles in managing and coordinating transport to invest in. This should allow the government to legislate
across their areas, alleviating congestion and minimising appropriately to avoid over-regulation, but provide regulations
environmental impact. that underpin safe and efficient transport technologies. ■
Copyright © 3alexd | iStock
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(2015) The Promise of Smart Mobility. Reducing Congestion
APPENDIX
TABLE OF DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES AND
CASE STUDIES
TABLE OF DEFINITIONS
Acronym Definition
CAV Connected autonomous vehicle
EV Electric vehicle
MaaS Mobility as a Service
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEM Original equipment manufacturer
ONS Office for National Statistics
SME Small and medium-sized enterprise
TfL Transport for London
DATA SOURCES
Data source Date published
ONS, UK Labour Market Data, 2011 2011
ONS, 2011 Census analysis, Commuting to Work, Changes to Travel to Work Areas: 2001 to 2011 2015
Census (2011) Information Scheme, Characteristics of Commuters, London Datastore 2014
ONS, Labour Force Survey 2016
TfL, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts 2015–2016 2016
ONS, Population Projections: Population Dynamics of UK City Regions since Mid-2011 2016
Department for Transport, Transport Statistics, Great Britain, 2017 2017
Atkins, Human-Centred Design Workplace study (2016–2017) 2017
CASE STUDIES
Name Location Relevance Sources
Alphabeta London Redesigning of http://www.studiorhe.com/project/alphabeta
Building office space to
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/design/ramping-up-how-the-new-alphabeta-
meet employee
office-building-and-8-st-james-s-square-are-redefining-the-10277950.html
priorities
https://www.alphabeta.london
Lyreco Telford Office site https://www.evoenergy.co.uk/case-studies/lyreco
with electric
http://www.midlandsbusinessnews.co.uk/uks-largest-industrial-scale-battery-pv-goes-
charging
live-lyreco
http://uk-corp.lyreco.com/medias/pressroom_pdf/Solar_panels_2015.pdf
WeWork Manchester/ Demonstrating https://www.ft.com/content/fa9c5e50-6e12-11e7-b9c7-15af748b60d0
London agile office
models
La Defence Paris Trialling of http://www.navya.fr
autonomous
https://navya.tech/en/inauguration-of-the-autonomous-shuttles-service-at-la-
vehicles
defense-in-paris-2
White Collar London Demonstrating https://www.ahmm.co.uk/projectDetails/90/White-Collar-Factory-Old-Street
Factory an urban hub
http://whitecollarfactory.com
Menlo Park California Demonstrating https://www.dezeen.com/2015/03/31/facebook-moves-into-campus-frank-gehry-
a suburban hub silicon-valley-california
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to express our thanks to the following individuals with whom we have held interviews to support this research.
Name Role Organisation

Dr Matthew Davis Lecturer in Socio-Technical Systems University of Leeds
Chris Bennett Head of Behaviour Change and Engagement Sustrans
Colin Hunt Cabinet Member responsible for transport in South Gloucestershire South Gloucestershire Council
Andy Pascoe Business Development – Intelligent Mobility Meridian Mobility UK
Prof. John Parkin Professor of Transport Engineering University of West England
Simon Shapcott Head of Research and Development Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV)
Dr Robert Piechocki Reader in Wireless Connectivity University of Bristol
Sampo Hietanen Chief Executive Officer MaaS Global
Philip Tidd Consulting Practice Area Lead, Principal Gensler
Jonathan Broderick Urban Strategist Gensler
Prof. Alexi Marmot Chair of Facility and Environment Management Bartlett, UCL
Nick Clay Head of Homologation and Quality Arrival
We would like to express our thanks to the following individuals who supported this research and contributed to this report.
Name Role Organisation

Jonathan Guest Senior Economist Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group
Chloe Nicholls Interior Designer Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group
Dr Caroline Paradise Head of Design Research Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group
Kaare Nielsen Associate Director Atkins, a member of the SNC-Lavalin Group
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COVER IMAGE Copyright © ithinksky | iStock

COPYRIGHT © BRITISH COUNCIL FOR OFFICES, 2018

BASELINING THE CURRENT TRANSPORT AND OFFICE LANDSCAPE 6

SCENARIO 1: THE ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT 9

SCENARIO 2: THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE 14

SCENARIO 3: THE EMERGENCE OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 17

FUTURE TRANSPORT INFLUENCING OFFICE DEMAND 21

FUTURE TRANSPORT SHAPING OFFICE DESIGN 23

APPENDIX: TABLE OF DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES AND CASE STUDIES 36

Commute mode Rural Suburban Urban

in the UK. In addition, dockless cycle hire schemes have been

The UK government’s ambition is to ban the sale of conventional

(EV) charging and £40 million in EV charge-point research and

CURRENT URBAN AND

The study included a centrally located urban office situated

certain that the EV trend has already started. He says that:

“There is no doubt that there has

THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE

THE IMPACT OF EVs ON OFFICE DESIGN

10–20 years Repurposed

REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS space

FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT Car park

While individual behavioural changes are key to increased use

Scotland and Wales are likewise implementing change through

No. of journeys per annum

THE FUTURE OF MaaS 400,000

MaaS is the trigger for transport change in this scenario,

ON OFFICE DESIGN in the past when trying to create multi-modal integrated

THE FUTURE OF CAVs • vehicles to everything (V2X) – connectivity between vehicles

Copyright © Tramino | iStock

A NEW MODEL FOR

Central hub Home

Library space Hotelling

Facilities spaces, drones

Heart and hub

THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE

MaaS also facilitates efficient journeys through improved data

Cycle parks Parking for electric cars

Copyright © Jason Doiy | iStock

• Co-location of all staff on a single campus that includes all

TRANSPORT AND CITY PLANNERS

Copyright © 3alexd | iStock

Viechnicki P, Khuperkar A, Dovey-Fishman T and Eggers WD

Name Role Organisation

Name Role Organisation

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BASELINING THE CURRENT TRANSPORT AND OFFICE LANDSCAPE 6

SCENARIO 1: THE ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT 9

SCENARIO 2: THE GROWTH OF MOBILITY AS A SERVICE 14

SCENARIO 3: THE EMERGENCE OF CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 17

FUTURE TRANSPORT INFLUENCING OFFICE DEMAND 21

FUTURE TRANSPORT SHAPING OFFICE DESIGN 23

APPENDIX: TABLE OF DEFINITIONS, DATA SOURCES AND CASE STUDIES 36