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A NEW MARKER TO DETERMINE PROGNOSIS OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS: PLR AND NLR COMBINATION View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Muhammet Akpinar on 30 April 2017.
Ankara, Turkey
BACKGROUND: Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) increases CONCLUSION: The CRP/albumin ratio is a novel but promis-
and albumin decreases in patients with inflammation and in- ing, easy-to-measure, repeatable, non-invasive inflammation-
fection. However, their role in patients with acute pancreatitis based prognostic score in acute pancreatitis.
is not clear. The present study was to investigate the predictive
(Hepatobiliary Pancreat Dis Int 2017;00:000-000)
significance of the CRP/albumin ratio for the prognosis and
mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. KEY WORDS: Atlanta classification;
C-reactive protein;
METHODS: This study was performed retrospectively with
192 acute pancreatitis patients between January 2002 and June Glasgow prognostic score;
2015. Ranson scores, Atlanta classification and CRP/albumin Ranson score;
ratios of the patients were calculated. acute pancreatitis
A
in particular and with important prognostic markers such as cute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation
hospitalization time, CRP and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and
In addition to the CRP/albumin ratio, necrotizing pancreatitis severe abdominal pain and has high morbidity
type, moderately severe and severe Atlanta classification, and and mortality rate. Although its etiology is not known
total Ranson score were independent risk factors of mortal-
ity. It was found that an increase of 1 unit in the CRP/albumin
for certain, it is mostly associated with gallstones and
ratio resulted in an increase of 1.52 times in mortality risk. A alcohol.[1] It is associated with intra-acinar activation of
prediction value about CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 was found proteolytic enzymes, leukocyte chemoattraction, release
to be a significant marker in predicting mortality with 92.1% of cytokines, oxidative stress and microcirculatory in-
sensitivity and 58.0% specificity. It was seen that Ranson and jury.[2-4] The common factor in all these mechanisms is
Atlanta classification were higher in patients with CRP/albu- an excessive inflammatory response.
min ratio >16.28 compared with those with CRP/albumin ra- The prognosis of the disease varies depending on the
tio ≤16.28. Patients with CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 had a 19.3
severity of the disease. Approximately 75%-80% of cases
times higher chance of death.
progress mildly and can be cured solely with intravenous
fluid treatment and supportive care. The remaining cases
progress with mortality and severe complications up to
30%-50%.[5] For this reason, early diagnosis of the dis-
Author Affiliations: Department of Gastroenterology, Turkey Yuksek
Ihtisas Training and Research Hospital, Ankara 06100, Turkey (Kaplan
ease and determination of a therapeutic strategy accord-
M, Akpinar MY, Yuksel M, Kuzu UB, Kacar S, Coskun O and Kayacetin ing to disease severity are of great importance. Several
E); Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara Numune Training and Re- scoring systems are used in order to determine the dis-
search Hospital, Ankara 06100, Turkey (Ates I) ease severity. However, none of these scoring systems can
Corresponding Author: Ihsan Ates, MD, PhD, Department of Internal determine the severity within the first hour of admission.
Medicine, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara For this reason, there is a need for easy-to-use and inex-
06100, Turkey (Tel: +0903125084666; Fax: +0903123113958; Email:
dr.ihsanates@hotmail.com) pensive indices that can determine the disease severity
and give an idea about the prognosis within minutes in
© 2017, Hepatobiliary Pancreat Dis Int. All rights reserved.
doi: 10.1016/S1499-3872(17)60007-9 clinical practice.
Published online April 24, 2017. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is a positive acute
phase reactant synthesized by the liver and its level in the to the Atlanta classification, patients without local or sys-
blood increases within hours in response to inflamma- temic complications and organ failure were classified as
tion and infection.[6, 7] It is frequently used in infection mild AP; those with transient organ failure - organ fail-
and inflammation follow-up due to its short half-life, ure that resolves within 48 hours and/or local or systemic
easy measurement and close relationship with prognosis complications - were classified as moderately severe AP;
of the disease.[8-10] It can be used for diagnosis, treatment and those with persistent organ failure were classified as
follow-up and mortality prediction especially in inflam- severe AP. For patients with pancreatitis associated with
matory cases.[11, 12] gallstones and other reasons, Ranson criteria were calcu-
Albumin is a negative acute phase reactant synthesized lated at 0 h and 48 h separately and a total Ranson score
by the liver and its level in the blood decreases during in- was achieved. All laboratory findings of the patients were
flammation. In previous studies, albumin was shown to be obtained at the time of admission.
associated with inflammation severity, disease prognosis
and mortality.[13-15] The reason for this is the close relation- Statistical analysis
ship between inflammation and malnutrition. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) for
The CRP/albumin ratio is a new inflammation-based Windows 20 (IBM SPSS Inc., Chicago, USA) and Med-
prognostic score and it is correlated to the inflammation Calc 11.4.2 (MedCalc Software, Mariakerke, Belgium)
severity[16] and mortality.[17] However, there is no study softwares were used for statistical assessments. The
available in the literature which investigates the relation- normal distribution of the data was evaluated with
ship of this marker with disease prognosis and mortality. the Shapiro-Wilk test. Values with normal distribution
The present study investigated the predictive significance were presented as mean±standard deviation and values
of the CRP/albumin ratio for prognosis and mortality in without normal distribution were presented as median
AP patients. (range). Categorical variables were presented as num-
bers and percentages. Numerical values in the deceased
patient group and the survival patient group were com-
Methods pared using the Student’s t test and the Mann-Whitney U
Patients test. Chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test were used in
comparison of categorical data. Univariable Cox regres-
We reviewed the files of AP patients in the Gastroen- sion analysis was utilized in order to determine the ef-
terology Clinic of Turkey Yuksek Ihtisas Training and fects of potential prognostic factors on mortality. Signifi-
Research Hospital between January 2002 and June 2015. cant factors were included in the stepwise multivariate
A total of 300 patients were retrieved initially, 108 were Cox regression model and independent predictors were
excluded from the study due to lack of follow-up and identified. The diagnostic discrimination of independent
insufficient laboratory values. Patients with documented predictors in mortality was examined with ROC curve
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, known re- analysis, area under the curve (AUC).[20] The Youden
nal and liver failure or malignancy diagnosis and those index method was used in order to determine the predic-
who had infectious disease within the last month were tion point of the CRP/albumin ratio for mortality. The
excluded from the study. Our patients were over the age Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to show the effect of the
of 18, hospitalized with AP diagnosis according to At- determined prediction value on survival. In statistical
lanta criteria. Laboratory parameters had been recorded analysis, a P<0.05 with 95% confidence interval and 5%
and computed tomographies were performed to evaluate margin of error was considered statistically significant.
pancreatitis severity at least at the date of admission. Fi-
nally 192 patients were included in the analysis.
A diagnosis of AP was made using the Atlanta criteria Results
which requires the presence at least 2 of the followings: 1)
abdominal pain highly suggestive of acute pancreatitis; 2) Entire population findings
elevations in serum amylase and/or lipase to more than The study population consisted of 192 patients, 120 fe-
3 times the upper limit of normal; 3) the presence of males (62.5%) and 72 males (37.5%). The mean age of
characteristic radiological findings (ultrasonography or the patients was 61.9±18.0 years. One hundred eighty-
computerized tomography) of AP.[18, 19] five (96.4%) of the patients had abdominal pain, 15
Relevant information such as age, gender, laboratory (7.8%) had jaundice, 32 (16.7%) had fever, 39 (20.3%)
findings, complications, radiologic findings, duration of had nausea, and 1 (0.5%) was asymptomatic. The dis-
hospital stay, Ranson score, Atlanta classification, mor- tribution of the patients in terms of etiology was as fol-
tality status were retrieved from patient files. According lows: 154 (80.2%) gallstone, 5 (2.6%) alcohol, 3 (1.6%)
ysis, the CRP/albumin ratio (HR=1.52, 95% CI: 1.23-1.89, HR=11.47, 95% CI: 6.58-20.0, P<0.001, respectively),
P<0.001), necrotizing pancreatitis type (HR=4.44, 95% CI: and total Ranson score (HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.27-1.78,
3.56-5.32, P<0.001), moderately severe and severe Atlanta P<0.001) were independent risk factors of mortality. An
classification (HR=6.66, 95% CI: 4.96-8.96, P<0.001; increase of 1 unit in the CRP/albumin ratio resulted in
an increase of 1.52 times in mortality risk.
Fig. 1 shows the diagnostic assessment of indepen-
Table 3. Distribution of laboratory findings by risk groups
dent predictors of mortality. Accordingly, independent
Variables HR 95% CI P value
predictors with high AUC values did not show a diagnos-
Urea 1.090 1.050-1.130 <0.001
tic difference in terms of predicting mortality. A predic-
AST 0.999 0.997-1.002 0.084
ALT 0.996 0.994-0.998 0.008
tion value of CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 was found to be
GGT 0.999 0.997-1.001 0.070 a significant marker in predicting mortality (sensitivity:
Alkaline phosphatase 0.993 0.990-0.996 0.009 92.1%; specificity: 58.0%; AUC: 0.835; P<0.001). The
Amylase 1.000 0.999-1.001 0.467 mortality risk of the patients whose CRP/albumin ratio
Lipase 1.001 0.998-1.004 0.125 were higher than 16.28 (35/99) was 19.271 times higher
Lactate dehydrogenase 1.001 0.995-1.007 0.073 when compared to the patients with a CRP/albumin
Total bilirubin 0.739 0.572-0.954 0.020 ratio ≤16.28 (3/93) (HR=19.271, 95% CI: 5.849-63.491,
Direct bilirubin 0.706 0.518-0.962 0.028
P<0.001). The median survival length of the patients
Calcium 0.097 0.043-0.215 <0.001
INR 1.355 1.013-1.812 0.041
with a CRP/albumin ratio>16.28 was 55 months (95%
Hemoglobin 0.903 0.788-1.036 0.146 CI: 45.6-64.4). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were
White blood cell 1.000 0.995-1.005 0.759 90.4%±0.03%, 67.5%±0.06%, and 23.5%±0.11% (Fig. 2).
Creatinine 1.575 1.310-1.894 <0.001
Total protein 0.557 0.414-0.750 <0.001
Table 4. Distribution of prognostic scores by risk groups
Platelet 0.999 0.992-1.006 0.091
Erythrocyte sedimentation rate 1.031 1.020-1.042 <0.001 Variables HR 95% CI P value
Albumin 0.391 0.279-0.549 <0.001 Total Ranson score 2.195 1.728-2.788 0.001
CRP 1.110 1.080-1.150 <0.001 Atlanta score
CRP/albumin 1.346 1.250-1.450 <0.001 Mild ref ref ref
AST: aspartate aminotransferase; ALT: alanine aminotransferase; GGT: Moderately severe 7.842 2.455-25.052 0.001
gama-glutamyltransferase; HR: hazard ratio; 95% CI : 95% confidence Severe 27.726 9.608-80.011 0.001
interval; INR: international normalized ratio. HR: hazard ratio; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval.
Fig. 1. Diagnostic assessment of independent predictors of mortality with ROC curve analysis. AUC:��������������������������������
area under curve; SE: standard
error; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval; CRP: C-reacitive protein.
complications and patients with pancreatitis associated 4 Tiscornia OM, Negri GA, Otero G, López Mingorance FN,
with gallstones were treated with ERCP urgently in our Waisman H, Tiscornia-Wasserman PG. Pancreatic polypep-
tide: a review of its involvement in neuro-endocrine reflexes,
clinic.
islet-acinar interactions and ethanol-evoked physiopatologic
The limitations of our study include the retrospective pancreatic gland changes. Acta Gastroenterol Latinoam
nature, single-center, low population study, which may 2015;45:155-164.
limit the prognostic value of the CRP/albumin ratio. The 5 Jupp J, Fine D, Johnson CD. The epidemiology and socioeco-
other limitation of our study is biliary pancreatitis ratio. nomic impact of chronic pancreatitis. Best Pract Res Clin Gas-
Mortality rate in AP is found 19.8% during the hos- troenterol 2010;24:219-231.
pitalization in our study. This might be due to most of 6 Matowicka-Karna J. Markers of inflammation, activation of
blood platelets and coagulation disorders in inflammatory
AP patients that admitted to our emergency room took bowel diseases. Postepy Hig Med Dosw (Online) 2016;70:305-
medical treatment in emergency and discharged and 312.
excluded from the study because of non-hospitalization. 7 Kinoshita A, Onoda H, Imai N, Nishino H, Tajiri H. C-reactive
Additionally because our hospital is third stage education protein as a prognostic marker in patients with hepatocellular
hospital, more complicated patients admit to our clinic. carcinoma. Hepatogastroenterology 2015;62:966-970.
In literature there are studies that mortality rate reached 8 Rhodes B, Fürnrohr BG, Vyse TJ. C-reactive protein in
rheumatology: biology and genetics. Nat Rev Rheumatol
to 30%.[30-32] Possible bias was likely. However, we think 2011;7:282-289.
our patients count is enough for statistical analysis. Addi- 9 Vos AG, Idris NS, Barth RE, Klipstein-Grobusch K, Grobbee
tional prospective studies with larger populations involv- DE. Pro-Inflammatory Markers in Relation to Cardiovascular
ing multiple centers are necessary to accurately evaluate Disease in HIV Infection. A Systematic Review. PLoS One
the CRP/albumin ratio as a predictor of mortality. 2016;11:e0147484.
In summary, this study demonstrated that as a cheap, 10 Ateş H, Ateş і, Bozkurt B, Çelik HT, Özol D, Yldrm Z. What
is the most reliable marker in the differential diagnosis of
repeatable, non-invasive systemic inflammation-based pulmonary embolism and community-acquired pneumonia?
marker, the CRP/albumin ratio is an independent pre- Blood Coagul Fibrinolysis 2016;27:252-258.
dictor of overall survival for patients with AP. The CRP/ 11 Lelubre C, Anselin S, Zouaoui Boudjeltia K, Biston P, Piagner-
albumin ratio could be used to predict prognosis in pa- elli M. Interpretation of C-reactive protein concentrations in
tients with AP like other prognostic scores or laboratory critically ill patients. Biomed Res Int 2013;2013:124021.
parameters. 12 Lee KJ, Kim HM, Choi JS, Kim YJ, Kim YS, Cho JH. Compari-
son of predictive systems in severe acute pancreatitis according
to the revised atlanta classification. Pancreas 2016;45:46-50.
Contributors: KM and AI were responsible for the study design, 13 Goh SL, De Silva RP, Dhital K, Gett RM. Is low serum albumin
analysis and interpretation of the data, drafting of the manuscript. associated with postoperative complications in patients under-
AMY performed the statistical analysis. YM and CO interpreted going oesophagectomy for oesophageal malignancies? Interact
the data. KS and KE revised the manuscript for important intel- Cardiovasc Thorac Surg 2015;20:107-113.
lectual content. All authors contributed to the design and inter- 14 Kim HJ, Lee HW. Important predictor of mortality in patients
pretation of the study and to further drafts. KM and AI contrib- with end-stage liver disease. Clin Mol Hepatol 2013;19:105-115.
uted equally to this study. KM is the guarantor. 15 Gupta D, Lis CG. Pretreatment serum albumin as a predictor
Funding: None. of cancer survival: a systematic review of the epidemiological
Ethical approval: The study was approved by the Institutional literature. Nutr J 2010;9:69.
Review Board of the Turkey Yuksek Ihtisas Training and Research 16 Zhou T, Zhan J, Hong S, Hu Z, Fang W, Qin T, et al. Ratio of
Hospital (2015-0625). All participants provided written informed C-reactive protein/albumin is an inflammatory prognostic
consent. score for predicting overall survival of patients with small-cell
Competing interest: No benefits in any form have been received lung cancer. Sci Rep 2015;5:10481.
or will be received from a commercial party related directly or in- 17 Ranzani OT, Zampieri FG, Forte DN, Azevedo LC, Park M.
directly to the subject of this article. C-reactive protein/albumin ratio predicts 90-day mortality of
septic patients. PLoS One 2013;8:e59321.
18 Bradley EL 3rd. A clinically based classification system for
acute pancreatitis. Summary of the International Symposium
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