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Vol.

9, No 2, 2013 ISSN 1822-3346 Economics and Rural Development

VIABILITY OF INSURANCE IN THE MANAGEMENT OF EXTREME


WEATHER RELATED RISKS IN AGRICULTURE: A METHODOLOGY
APPROACH

Lorant Anna1, Fekete Farkas Maria2

Szent Istvan University, Hungary

Climate change and its consequences pose a significant risk to economies and societies as well. This study is focusing on the insurance
industry as one of the major players in risk management. Its aim is to present a possible method to examine the potential for introducing a
new insurance product, namely, an agricultural flood insurance scheme. The investigation included the mapping of the current compensation
systems in Hungary and in the United Kingdom, the calculation of agricultural flood damage costs, and farmers’ interests in insurance. In
a small scale survey (2009), farmers with flood experience were asked about their willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance using a
contingent valuation method. Using statistical analysis, it was found that the insurance demand is positively correlated with the damage cost
predicted, and association is likely between farm types and WTP for insurance. Linear regression model suggests that the demand for flood
insurance is low amongst farmers in the present risk level. The findings of this research also highlight that agricultural compensation systems
have different aims in countries investigated, and state involvement is often necessary to provide suitable environment to companies to develop
agricultural insurance products covering extreme weather events.
Keywords: climate change, insurance, agriculture.
JEL classification: Q54, Q18

Introduction opportunities as well as their vulnerabilities to natural hazards


and climate change impacts in general (Djordjevic et al.,
The efforts to confront the prospect and impacts of 2011). There is no country that is not affected. The earthquake
anthropogenic climate change present human kind with one and tsunami in Japan, the floods in Australia and Thailand,
of the major challenges. While it has several consequences and the drought in Somalia are well-known events from 2011.
(including sea level rise and extreme weather events), It is also true that extreme events have a great impact on
the scientific uncertainty attached to this phenomenon is economic sectors in particular those with close link to climate,
significant. Due to the complexity of climate system and the for instance, agriculture, health, and tourism (IPCC, 2011).
linkage between the increase of GHG emissions and extreme Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to changing
weather events, it is really difficult to predict the exact long- climate, since it is directly affected by weather conditions.
term implications. However, the latest IPCC special report The problem could be even more serious if one takes into
on the risk management of extreme events and many other account the fact that agriculture plays a significant role in
statistics available suggest that the annual number of weather- food security and the likely increase in food consumption
related disasters and their adverse economic and financial suggested by the current population growth patterns. The two
impacts are increasing but with large interannual and regional often mentioned hazards in the context of agricultural sector
variability (IPCC, 2011). Focusing on the past six decades, are drought and flood. Both of them are causing significant
the average annual number of these major weather related damages in each year and according to the predictions they
extreme events has increased worldwide from about 1.5 in will likely be more frequent in the future (IPCC, 2011).
the 1950s to 3.7 over the past 10 years (CEA, 2008). During However, farmlands could have a special role due to the
2011, 820 natural disaster events were recorded and they nature of flooding as natural hazard. Besides being negatively
caused around USD 380 billion economic losses recorded affected, they could also contribute to flood defence, for
worldwide (Munich Re, 2012). Increased losses are associated instance, by taking pressure off flood defences that protect
with increasing population densities and higher concentration urban property and infrastructure (Morris et al., 2003). This
of values (The Geneva Association, 2009; CEA 2009). The article puts a special focus on the complex relationship
higher concentration of people in urban areas increases their between agricultural land and flooding.
___________________________
1
PhD School of Management and Business Administration, 1 Pater Karoly utca, Godollo, Hungary, 2103
E-mail: anna.lorant@gmail.com
2
Institute of Economics and Methodology, 1 Pater Karoly utca, Godollo, Hungary, 2103
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Economics and Rural Development Vol. 9, No 2, 2013 ISSN 1822-3346

The knowledge of coherence between agriculture and economic incentives (Morris and Hess, 2008). Private sources
flood risk is necessary to determine the role of land use can appear in the forms of funds and insurances, while in the
management in flood defence and the potential losses in UK, they are less developed from the view of agricultural
agriculture associated with floods. The relationship between flood damage compensation. In the context of this study, those
agricultural land and flood risk can be analysed with the below should be highlighted:
Source – Pathway – Receptor (SPR) model. This framework a) CAP – Single Payment Schemes: the objectives of the
is based upon the linkages between cause (“source”) of the Common Agricultural Policy have never contained flood
environmental risk followed the route (“pathway”) to the management policies but some elements of the current
environmental entry (“receptor”) of flooding. As the most Single Payment Scheme (SPS) related with the flood
recent OECD report about the issue describes agricultural risk management as secondary objectives. The scheme
land, it is potentially important from three aspects (Morris and refers to the phenomenon of cross compliance that means
Hess, 2008): that farmers have to meet three sets of requirements to
– agricultural land is a pathway as land management get financial compensation. The three types of cross
practices play a significant role in mitigating flood compliance are i) Good Agricultural and Environmental
generation through determination both the amount of Condition; ii) Soil Management and Protection; and
water and the speed at which that occurs (Morris and iii) Maintenance of Habitats and Landscape Features
Hess, 2008); (DEFRA, 2005). Therefore, SPS provides financial
– agricultural land located in floodplain areas is a receptor incentives to basic but widespread land management
as it is often exposed to flood risk. These lands can be practice changes that could deliver associated flood risk
adapted to reduce risk; benefits alongside other environmental benefits (DEFRA,
– in agricultural land, flood water can be stored temporary, 2005);
thereby, mitigating the risk elsewhere. b) England Rural Development Programme (Environmental
For this reason, rural land could play a significant role in Stewardship): it is the major national agri-environment
the high-level strategic planning process that seeks policies for scheme in the UK (Natural England, 2009). Similar to
sustainable flood risk management. the SPS, it does not either contain flood risk management
Insurance industry is a major player in risk management. as a first objective but actions promoted by the scheme
According to the report of the LMF (2009), climate change have flood management benefits such as creation of wet
presents the insurance industry with new challenges in two grasslands (Higher Level Stewardship) or management
different aspects: firstly, it is necessary to adapt the changing practices of drainages, cultivated lands, and uplands
weather patterns and other environmental effects which (Entry Level Stewardship);
generate risks. Secondly, insurance has a significant role in c) England Catchment Sensitive Farming Delivery
the mitigation of climate change as it can put incentives to Initiative: it differs from the earlier schemes as it is
their policymakers to reduce their carbon footprint. rather an advisory than a financial mechanism to deliver
It is clear that the insurance industry has a strong interest land use changes; although, limited funds are available
in addressing the problems of climate change for different for small scale works. Its primary purposes either do
sectors, households, and businesses. The report by The not involve flood risk management but many of its
Geneva Association (2009) highlights the need for effective promoted activities have flood management benefits
and integrated risk management taking into account the (Environment Agency, 2008). However, it is worth to note
different social, economic, and environmental factors. It also that the ECSFDI is voluntary based, thereby, farmers are
emphasises that the transition towards a low-carbon economy less likely to implement changes in long run unless it is
that could become reality in the medium-term future, will financially viable;
change risks and opportunities for the insurance industry. d) Government Flood Management Funding Structure:
It involves the opportunity of a closer partnership between current funding structure in the UK was designed to
governments and insurance companies in order to provide provide financial sources to meet the purposes of the
better/more efficient safeguards to the society and businesses. flood management strategies. The current flood funding
This study is focusing on the role of insurance in structure applied in England is based on Exchequer-
agricultural flood risk management. It analyses the insurance origin sources (approximately 94% of total) and involves
system in two countries (the UK and Hungary), and presents many policies/activities. It is significant from agricultural
a possible method to estimate the viability of climate change aspects because farmers are influenced directly/indirectly
insurance schemes. by many activities funded by the government and the
contribution of agricultural sector in the form of drainage
Compensation schemes available in the UK charges and rates (DEFRA, 2009);
Different compensations schemes are available for e) Insurances: there is a special situation in the UK
farmers, mainly from national and the EU sources. Their regarding the relationship between the insurance sector
common attribute is the voluntary measures, supported by and the agricultural risks. The United Kingdom has a

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Vol. 9, No 2, 2013 ISSN 1822-3346 Economics and Rural Development

private non-subsidised agricultural insurance system with four dominant companies on the agricultural insurance
one dominant company that covers 75% of the market market that provide coverage for both flood and standing
(Bielza and Conte, 2006). Coverage for flood risk is water damages in arable and horticulture crops. According
available only for farm buildings and machinery but not to the latest available data of the Research Institute of
for growing crops. It might be a surprise, since 42000 Agricultural Economics (Kemeny et al., 2010), the
hectares of agricultural field were affected by the serious proportion of insured farms among individual enterprises
flooding in 2007, and the costs constituted about 1% of is around 30% for horticulture and arable crops, while
the Gross Value Added of the agricultural industry in this ratio is significantly lower (20.1%) for pastures.
England in 2007 (Posthumus and Morris, 2008). Calculations also highlight that farmlands used by bigger
enterprises are more likely insured, for instance, the
Compensation schemes available in Hungary proportion of insured cropland is almost 80% (Kemeny
The revision of the domestic agricultural risk management et al., 2010). In principle, the reason behind relates with
system in Hungary was conducted during 2011, the new the different nature of these enterprises. Generally, it is
system entered into force on 1 January 2012. Until 2011, true that bigger producers more often apply for credits
it was not obligatory to farmers to take out market-based and in that case (application for some credits) agricultural
insurance policy; however, after 2008 as a minimum they had producers have to have agricultural insurance, although, as
to participate in the National Crop Damage Compensation it was highlighted earlier, there are no general obligations
System (it was not obligatory only for primary producers) in the country to conclude such insurances.
that provided coverage against inland flood damages but not
flashfloods. Changes introduced in 2012
a) National Crop Damage Compensation System (NAR). The The new legislation entered into force on 1 January 2012
Act LXXXVIII of 2006 laid down the principles of the with the aim of increasing the efficiency of farmers’ protection
National Crop Damage Compensation System that started against environmental damages. Natural disasters and extreme
its operation at the beginning of 2007. At the beginning, weather events caused significant damages to the producers,
it was a voluntary system and the principle of common and as it was mentioned previously, those damages were
effort sharing was applied, which meant that the state not covered sufficiently by the damage mitigation system.
contribution to the fund was equal to the amount paid After serious weather events, it often happened that the
by farmers who voluntary joined the fund. The volume government provided compensation from ad hoc funds even
of compensation was not allowed to exceed the loss of to those farmers who had no insurance and did not participate
yield value.3 Risks covered by the fund included drought, in the national compensation fund. Obviously, under those
flood, inland waters, and frost. However, the system at circumstances, farmers had no real interest to pay any extra
that time failed to provide enough financial resources money for risk management policies. This situation is often
to cover damages after bigger/larger events. Already in referred as the lack of self-provision and it characterises the
2007, after a serious spring frost in the Eastern-Hungary, Hungarian society in general (MABISZ, 2010).
the government had to take extraordinary actions, The new system is built on a two-pillar risk management
since there was no sufficient compensation available approach. The first pillar is very similar to the above mentioned
from the national fund. In 2008, many changes were damage mitigation system. Deposit paid by the farmers varies
introduced to increase the efficiency of the system; between different land-uses. The sum, thus, accumulated
however, they did not lead to significant improvements. from farmers’ deposits is supplemented by the government
Estimations showed that 5 billion Hungarian forints in an equal amount from the budgetary sources. However,
(around EUR 17 million) would be necessary for the only those producers will receive full damage compensation
efficient functioning of the system. That would have under the new system which provides motivation for farmers
required 2.5 billion payments by the farmers and equal to become self-providers, who have acquired insurance
amount of support by the government annually. The main from a business insurer with regard to at least 50% of their
problem was the low participation rate, so the system activities, while those with no insurance may receive only
became obligatory for farmers after the revision of the 50% of the maximum possible damage mitigation allowance
legislation in 2008 (Act CI of 2008) with the exception (Ministry of Rural Development, 2011).
of primary producers. At the same time number of risks The second pillar comprises a supported, private
covered by the system also increased. Though, the agricultural insurance construction for those producers who
compensation available to farmers did not cover all the wish to decrease their production risks to a higher level than
losses of farmers (MOSZ, 2011). the protection provided by the central damage mitigation
b) Insurance system. Agricultural insurances are not fund. Farmers can take out insurance policy on a voluntary
compulsory for farmers in Hungary. Currently, there are basis; however, as it was said earlier without insurance the
___________________________
3
The calculation of yield value is done by comparing the actual yield of the year of damage with the average yields of the preceding three
years, and the loss of revenue is then quantified in HUF, using prices set in a separate provision

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Economics and Rural Development Vol. 9, No 2, 2013 ISSN 1822-3346

level of compensation that they can get from national fund is background; 2 - risk attitude; 3 - insurance preferences). It was
significantly lower. sent out by post and self completed. The main limitations of the
According to the plans of the government, support for research were related with: the respond rate was around 40%,
farmers (to pay their insurance premiums) will be available which made the statistical investigation of the data difficult.
from both national and the EU sources for up to 65% of the The small number of responses probably is in association with
insurance premiums. However, since the related regulation the timing of the survey as farmers had a busy period due to
has not yet been finalised, currently those are only plans and the harvest. Apart from this, those who filled in the survey
not official numbers. did not answer all the questions in every case; thereby, the
It is easy to see that the above mentioned two pillars are sample size became smaller (final sample size is 13). During
closely connected. With the combined use of them, higher level the research, data analysis was done through both descriptive
of protection will be available to more farmers, because of the (to show incidence) and analytical (to show relationships)
fact that affected farmers may receive both damage mitigation statistics. Descriptive data were going to be analysed by
support and insurance damage compensation payments with frequency tables and percentages. It is a valuable method to
regard to the same damage event. describe the sample characteristics – such as distribution of
different farm types, flood risk exposures, and use of fields
Methodology where flood is a subject.
Correlation and regression models were used to find
Different methodologies have been used in the two association and dependency between variables. Table 1
countries. In both cases, literature review was the main source provides a summary on the analysis made. However, the most
to describe the current compensation systems; though, since difficult part was to estimate farmers’ WTP. As a statistically
Hungarian farmers already have access to flood insurance, the significant correlation was found between WTP bids and
viability of a flood insurance scheme research was conducted damage cost predicted, it was decided that a sample linear
in the UK, where no such product exists for the purpose of regression was going to be conducted. As it was suggested
estimate. (Frew et al., 2001) that the use of positive WTP values only
There are two significant variables in the estimation of in regression usually can yield better estimates than those
demand for insurance: the risk of an undesirable weather in which zeros are included, zero bids were excluded in
event and individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to cover the regression analysis. Linear regression method requires
against that risk. Risk was defined as the probability of event some assumptions; thus, the test of the variables was
occurrence multiplied by the consequences (Penning-Rowsell necessary. This included the analysis of residuals in order
and Chatterton, 1977). Consequences or economic losses are to investigate their performance - such as their distribution.
different in each case but using a general formula they can be If some of their parameters are not matched with
expressed as the loss in gross margins (total output less the the requirements (assumption column in the table)
variable costs) plus additional – such as cleaning up – costs. transformation of the data will be necessary. After the
Combining these loss values with the probability of event residual analysis, it was found that the application of box
occurrence risk can be got. Individuals’ WTP for an insurance cox transformation is required in order to reduce the number
product can be estimated by using contingent valuation (CV) of outliners and improve the distribution of residuals,
instrument. After the hypothetical market has been set up, thereby, to get a better, more significant regression model
the elicitation method chosen respondents’ WTP bids can be (Lewis and Mathieu, 1999).
obtained through a survey (Garrod and Willis, 2001). Survey
as a method is often used because it provides a simple approach Results
to study the attitude; it is cheap and it can be carried out within
a relatively short time period (Robson, 2002). Although, the Estimation of flood damage costs
dichotomous choice approach represents the preferred method The theoretical background of agricultural flood loss
for CV (Sherrick and Barrey, 2001; Garrod and Willis, 2001), estimation (Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton, 1977) says that
open-ended questions were used in the present research, which the cost of an infrequent flood event can be defined as the loss
means no values were suggested to the respondents; yet, to of gross margins adjusted by the savings, while costs could
make it easier to state their bids the average damage costs be higher as the harvest is coming. As a conclusion, it can
per year were represented in every case. Apart from the CV be assumed that a flood event of high consequence but low
instrument, questions on respondents’ (personal) background probability can have a similar risk value to a flood of low
and experiences associated with insurance and risks could be consequence but high probability (Table 2). Table 3 is based
very useful as they make it possible to examine variables that on gross margin calculations and shows the estimated flood
might influence the individuals’ decisions. All participants were damage costs in different land uses. The magnitude of costs
affected by the floods in 2007, so they already had experience is influenced by many factors; this is just a broad framework
with flooding. Survey on the agricultural flood insurance in the of estimation with several limitations, thereby, it should be
UK had three main parts (1 - general information on farmers’ treated with cautions.

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Table 1. Summary of data analysis used during the research

Variables Purpose Method used Assumption of the method


Risk tolerance, farm Determine the sample Descriptive -
type, land uses, flood characteristics statistics, frequency
frequencies tables
Summer and winter Determine any Paired t test the variables are paired or match each other
risk tolerance significant difference someway
WTP, damage cost Identify any Bivariate correlation normally distributed variables
association (Pearson)
WTP, damage cost Investigate how Simple linear 1) the errors of the observations are independent
well damage cost regression 2) errors are normally distributed
(independent variable) 3) the mean of the distribution of the errors is 0,
predicts farmers’ that implies: y=ß0+ß1x1, where y is the
WTP bids (dependent dependent variable, x is the independent and ß is
variable) the constant
4) the variance of the errors is equal to a constant
for all independent values (x)
Source: based upon Morgen et al., 2007; Marques de Sa, 2007

Table 2. Flood risk levels

Flood frequency Flood damage rate4


(number of floods per 0.01 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1
year)
0.01 0.0001 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.007 0.01
0.05 0.0005 0.005 0.01 0.025 0.035 0.05
0.1 0.001 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.1
0.2 0.002 0.02 0.04 0.1 0.14 0.2
1 0.01 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1

Table 3. Gross margins (GBP/ha) for selected crops to estimate the flood damages in different land uses

Crops
£, 2009 values
Oilseed Potatoes Grassland Grassland Horticulture
Winter cereal
rape (grazing) (silage)
Yield t/ha 8.25 3.25 42 10 10
Price GBP/t 135 300 121 47 47
Output GBP/ha 1113.75 975 5445 470 470
Straw by product GBP/ ha 40 0 0 0 0 0
Gross output GBP/ha 1153.75 975 5445 470 470 5735
Variable cost GBP/ha 511 465 3010 343 50 1466
Other crop cost GBP/ha 2,7 0 0 0 0 0
Total variable cost GBP/ha 513,7 465 3010 343 50 1466
Gross margin GBP/ha 640.05 510 2435 127 420 4269
Source: based upon Nix, 2008

___________________________
4
Flood damage rate expresses the severity of impacts. For instance if the damage rate is equal to 0.1, it means that 10% of the crops
are completely damaged/lost

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Source: based upon Nix, 2008

Fig. 1. Agricultural flood damages cost estimated for selected crops and flood frequencies

The highest gross margins can be found in horticultural orientated insurance companies will provide wider flood
cropping and vegetables (potatoes) that forecasts that the coverage to farmers.
highest losses can be expected in these land types. Figure 1 Focusing on the other side of the market Gene (2011)
combines the gross margin values with different flood provides three explanations for low demand: 1) price;
frequency levels and demonstrates the estimated cost of 2) liquidity constrains of farmers; and 3) lack of trust towards
agricultural damages in some cases. Curves demonstrate insurance companies. Besides all these, the level of risk should
the costs of total damages (100% loss in gross margins) be also mentioned as the fourth reason. If the risk level is
at the flood frequency given, while the area under the lower than farmers’ risk tolerance, it is unlikely that they will
curves demonstrates the risks of flooding in different voluntary pay for any insurance products. Statistical analysis
land uses and flood frequencies. It can be seen that costs was conducted to define this relationship between the risk
are proportionately lower for grassland, winter wheat, and level (flood damage cost predicted) and farmers’ WTP. The
oilseed rape than for horticulture and potatoes. It might correlation between the variables was found to be positive
influence the farmers’ land management practices as if they and significant at the 0.001 level which means that there
are growing potatoes on a field where flood is more frequent; is usually a higher WTP at higher predicted damage costs
they can suffer higher losses than if that field would be used and vice versa. After the confirmation of association between
for wheat production or as pasture (grass). the variables, the next step was to investigate how well
It is essential to analyse both the supply and demand side damage costs predicted farmers’ WTP bids. Linear regression
to better understand the reasons behind the less developed was conducted to do this. Based on the outcome, positive
agricultural system. The interest of insurance companies association between the expressed WTP and expected damage
is to make profit. They offer insurances in those situations cost was evident: R Square =0.4272, F = 33.556, p<.001
where the conditions of insurability (Skees, 1999) are met and (Table 4). According to Cohen (1988), r square value
the risk /reward ratio is favourable for them. The interview indicates a large or larger than typical effect. It means that,
with the dominant insurance company highlighted the lack although, damage cost is not the only factor that influences
of sufficiently large pool of risks and/or customers with the farmers’ decisions, their WTP bids can be estimated quite
propensity to buy insurance and the existence of adverse well from the loss values (it is consistent with the high
selection. It was also confirmed that it is unlikely in the near B value of the damage cost in the model). The equation
future that without the involvement of government profit- found is WTP = 0.0237 + 0.4255*Damage Cost (Figure 2).

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Table 4. Results of the regression model of flood damage costs and farmers’ WTP for flood insurance

N = 47 Beta Std. Err. Of B Std. Err. Of B t(45) p-level


Beta
Intercept 7.1005 6.4632 1.0985 0.2777
Damage Cost 0.6558 0.1125 0.1039 0.01784 5.8277 0.000001

R = 0.65582 R square = 0.4301 Adjusted R square = 0.41744


F (1. 45) = 33.963 p<0.00000 Std. Error of estimate: 31.144

Scatterplot of WTP transformed against Damage Cost transformed

WTP transformed = 0,0237+0,4255*x, r square = 0.4272


3,2

3,0

2,8
WTP transformed (pounds per hectare)

2,6

2,4

2,2

2,0

1,8

1,6

1,4

1,2

1,0
3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5
Damage cost transformed (pounds per hectare)

Fig. 2. Relationship estimated between transformed flood damage costs and farmers’ transformed WTP for flood insurance

However, it is worth to note that large part (around back to the mitigation, potential of agricultural lands is also
41%) of farmers’ WTP bids were zero, which indicates necessary here. It should not be forgotten that farmlands can
that farmers would not pay for insurance in almost half play a significant role in mitigating the risk from the potentially
of the cases (most likely when the damage costs were vulnerable urban areas where costs could be significantly
below GBP 60), while their highest bid was GBP 200. higher. Recently many studies focus on the use and benefits
They are willing to pay GBP 20.03 on average. According of agricultural land in flood risk management (Morris and
to farmers’ responses, the reason behind the low demand Hess, 2008; Morris et al., 2008, Hess et al., 2004).
relates with the low risk level compared with their risk Studies also approved that farmers’ decisions on taking
tolerance (see above). Respondents’ view is that following out insurance policy were more likely influenced by factors
good agricultural practices, some additional measures could such as cultural attitude, credit availability than their
provide a sufficient protection against flood damages. income. This is quite similar experience as it was in the UK.
When farmers refer to low flood risk, it should be kept in However, the income and price factors in that context are still
mind that until recent years floods seemed to be isolated relevant, and thereby, they should be taken into account.
incidents in the UK (Guide to Floods, 2011). Extreme weather events including floods cause significant
damages in agriculture at both national and global levels.
Discussion However, the agricultural sector is not only the “victim”
of these events but it also provides an opportunity to
Experience above suggests that the reason behind the less temporary store flood water in agricultural land, thereby,
developed agricultural flood insurance system relates with it becomes possible to mitigate the risk elsewhere, for
both the supply and demand sides of the market. Referring instance, from the more developed urban areas.

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Economics and Rural Development Vol. 9, No 2, 2013 ISSN 1822-3346

There are many different approaches and methods in and farmland. As a consequence of that each country
agricultural flood risk management. Even though in principle whose agricultural sector is affected should develop its
it can be assumed that each system involves three different own risk management system that might less involve
stakeholder groups, namely, farmers, public sector, and the insurance sector and put more emphasis on public
insurance companies, and relies on the collaboration among (flood defence) services by farmlands and compensated
them. by the governments through agri-environmental schemes
Current trends in the UK suggest an increasing focus on for instance.
the potential use of farmlands in flood risk management.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to address special thanks to Professor Joe Morris and Simon Medaney (Crandfield University) for their
support and advice provided to this research.
The authors would also like to thank Dr Andrew Fieldsend for his suggestions and encouragement.
The authors are also really grateful to those two anonymous reviewers who provided useful comments and helped improve this
article.
The research outlined in this paper was supported by the TAMOP-4.2.1.B-11/2/KMR-2011-0003 project.

43
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