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PRICE DATA
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM PRICE DATA GIVEN
4-Jan-93 2.36 2.68 6.78 20.37 2.34 11.79
3-Jan-94 4.15 2.64 7.2 18.47 4.21 14.62 RETURNS DATA
3-Jan-95 4.98 3.68 10.91 19.9 4.2 15.53 CELL B19
2-Jan-96 8.8 5.73 19.43 29.03 8.09 20.41 COPY ROWAND DRAG FOR
2-Jan-97 13.51 12.64 24.44 27.59 13.93 30.78
2-Jan-98 21.64 18.49 29.15 38.01 20.19 31.6 AVERAGE
4-Jan-99 30.57 43.37 38.04 34.14 23.47 30.94 STDDEV
3-Jan-00 40.51 48.51 39.36 20.93 36.27 39.24 VAR
2-Jan-01 42.42 30.26 43.8 23.52 48.13 48.78
2-Jan-02 34.82 31.58 55.19 28.7 41.39 51.05 EXCESS RETURN
2-Jan-03 22.25 23.52 52.15 32 32.81 59.63
2-Jan-04 31.86 28.16 51.49 37.36 48.86 81.95 VAR-COV MATRIX
STEP1
RETURNS DATA
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM STEP2
3-Jan-94 56.44% -1.50% 6.01% -9.79% 58.73% 21.51%
3-Jan-95 18.23% 33.21% 41.56% 7.46% -0.24% 6.04% STEP3
2-Jan-96 56.93% 44.28% 57.71% 37.76% 65.55% 27.33% STEP 4
2-Jan-97 42.87% 79.12% 22.94% -5.09% 54.34% 41.08% STEP5
2-Jan-98 47.11% 38.04% 17.62% 32.04% 37.11% 2.63% STEP 6
4-Jan-99 34.55% 85.25% 26.62% -10.74% 15.05% -2.11% STEP 7
3-Jan-00 28.15% 11.20% 3.41% -48.93% 43.53% 23.76% STEP 8
2-Jan-01 4.61% -47.19% 10.69% 11.67% 28.29% 21.76% STEP9
2-Jan-02 -19.74% 4.27% 23.11% 19.90% -15.09% 4.55% STEP10
2-Jan-03 -44.78% -29.47% -5.67% 10.88% -23.23% 15.54% STEP 11
2-Jan-04 35.90% 18.01% -1.27% 15.49% 39.82% 31.80%
EXCESS RETURNS
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
3-Jan-94 32.78% -22.89% -12.42% -15.31% 31.11% 3.89%
3-Jan-95 -5.43% 11.83% 23.13% 1.94% -27.86% -11.59%
2-Jan-96 33.27% 22.90% 39.28% 32.25% 37.93% 9.70%
2-Jan-97 19.21% 57.73% 4.51% -10.60% 26.72% 23.46%
2-Jan-98 23.45% 16.65% -0.81% 26.53% 9.49% -15.00%
4-Jan-99 10.89% 63.87% 8.19% -16.25% -12.57% -19.74%
3-Jan-00 4.49% -10.18% -15.02% -54.44% 15.90% 6.14%
2-Jan-01 -19.05% -68.58% -7.74% 6.15% 0.67% 4.14%
2-Jan-02 -43.40% -17.11% 4.68% 14.39% -42.71% -13.08%
2-Jan-03 -68.45% -50.85% -24.10% 5.37% -50.86% -2.09%
2-Jan-04 12.24% -3.38% -19.70% 9.97% 12.20% 14.17%
DATA GIVEN
23.66% AVERAGE(B19:B29)
32.17% STDDEV(B19:B29) DRAG AND COPY ACROSS ROW
10.35% VAR(B19:B29) DRAG ACROSS AND COPY ROW
OV MATRIX
FORMULA TYPE IN CELL B52AAS FOLLOWS
(MMULT(TRANSPOSE(B38:G48),
AFTER COMMA ABOVE
B38:G48)/10 SAMPLE SIZE OF EXCESS RETURN N
HENCE DIVIDE BY 10
PRESS )
PRESS SHIFT+CTRL+ENTER ARRAY
YOU GET ONE VALUE OF CELL B 52)
FROM THAT CELL COVER THE ENTIRE SIX BY SIX MATRIX
GOTO FORMULA BAR PRESS ENTER
AGAIN PRESS SHIFT+CTRL+ENTER ARRAY
YOU GET THE VARIANCE -COVARIANCE MATRIX
VERIFY YELLOW SHADED
VARIANCE -COVARIANCE MATRIX
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 0.10350 0.07585 0.02216 -0.00430 0.08575 0.01230
MSFT 0.07585 0.16574 0.04123 -0.00517 0.03793 -0.00224
JNJ 0.02216 0.04123 0.03597 0.01811 0.01010 -0.00393
K -0.00430 -0.00517 0.01811 0.05695 -0.00762 -0.00462
BA 0.08575 0.03793 0.01010 -0.00762 0.08957 0.02482
IBM 0.01230 -0.00224 -0.00393 -0.00462 0.02482 0.01839
NCIAL MODELLING
11
ESTIMATING VALUE AT RISK (VaR) USING THE VARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX
VARIANCE -COVARIANCE MATRIX
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM WEIGHTS
GE 0.1035 0.0758 0.0222 -0.0043 0.0857 0.0123 0.3670
MSFT 0.0758 0.1657 0.0412 -0.0052 0.0379 -0.0022 0.3336
JNJ 0.0222 0.0412 0.0360 0.0181 0.0101 -0.0039 0.1668
K -0.0043 -0.0052 0.0181 0.0570 -0.0076 -0.0046 0.0168
BA 0.0857 0.0379 0.0101 -0.0076 0.0896 0.0248 0.0447
IBM 0.0123 -0.0022 -0.0039 -0.0046 0.0248 0.0184 0.0710
PORTFOLIO
MEAN RETURN 21.47% MMULT($B$12:$G$12,I4:I9)
VARIANCE MMULT(MMULT(TRANSPOSE(I4:I9),B4:G9),I4:I9
STANDARD DEVIATION
0.3670 0.3336 0.1668
INVESTMENT 1000
CUTOFFPOINT 800
PROBABILITY 5.036%
VARIANCE -COVARIANCE MATRIX
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 0.1035 0.0758 0.0222 -0.0043 0.0857 0.0123
MSFT 0.0758 0.1657 0.0412 -0.0052 0.0379 -0.0022
JNJ 0.0222 0.0412 0.0360 0.0181 0.0101 -0.0039
K -0.0043 -0.0052 0.0181 0.0570 -0.0076 -0.0046
BA 0.0857 0.0379 0.0101 -0.0076 0.0896 0.0248
IBM 0.0123 -0.0022 -0.0039 -0.0046 0.0248 0.0184
ANSPOSE(I4:I9),B4:G9),I4:I9)
0.79
64.7405 885.39
0.0731 1
sum
ANNUAL STOCK PRICE AND RETURN DATA FOR SIX STOCKS
PRICE DATA
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
4-Jan-93 2.36 2.68 6.78 20.37 2.34 11.79
3-Jan-94 4.15 2.64 7.2 18.47 4.21 14.62
3-Jan-95 4.98 3.68 10.91 19.9 4.2 15.53
2-Jan-96 8.8 5.73 19.43 29.03 8.09 20.41
2-Jan-97 13.51 12.64 24.44 27.59 13.93 30.78
2-Jan-98 21.64 18.49 29.15 38.01 20.19 31.6
4-Jan-99 30.57 43.37 38.04 34.14 23.47 30.94
3-Jan-00 40.51 48.51 39.36 20.93 36.27 39.24
2-Jan-01 42.42 30.26 43.8 23.52 48.13 48.78
2-Jan-02 34.82 31.58 55.19 28.7 41.39 51.05
2-Jan-03 22.25 23.52 52.15 32 32.81 59.63
2-Jan-04 31.86 28.16 51.49 37.36 48.86 81.95
RETURNS DATA
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
3-Jan-94 0.5644 -0.0150 0.0601 -0.0979 0.5873 0.2151
3-Jan-95 0.1823 0.3321 0.4156 0.0746 -0.0024 0.0604
2-Jan-96 0.5693 0.4428 0.5771 0.3776 0.6555 0.2733
2-Jan-97 0.4287 0.7912 0.2294 -0.0509 0.5434 0.4108
2-Jan-98 0.4711 0.3804 0.1762 0.3204 0.3711 0.0263
4-Jan-99 0.3455 0.8525 0.2662 -0.1074 0.1505 -0.0211
3-Jan-00 0.2815 0.1120 0.0341 -0.4893 0.4353 0.2376
2-Jan-01 0.0461 -0.4719 0.1069 0.1167 0.2829 0.2176
2-Jan-02 -0.1974 0.0427 0.2311 0.1990 -0.1509 0.0455
2-Jan-03 -0.4478 -0.2947 -0.0567 0.1088 -0.2323 0.1554
2-Jan-04 0.3590 0.1801 -0.0127 0.1549 0.3982 0.3180
PORTFOLIO
MEAN RETURN 0.2158 MMULT($B$12:$G$12,I4
VARIANCE 0.0668 MMULT(MMULT(TRANSP
STD DEV 0.2585 SHIFT+CTRL+ENTER
WEIGHTS
BA IBM
0.0857 0.0123 0.3800
0.0379 -0.0022 0.3454
0.0101 -0.0039 0.1378
-0.0076 -0.0046 0.0173
0.0896 0.0248 0.0464
0.0248 0.0184 0.0731
0.2763 0.1763
MMULT($B$12:$G$12,I4:I9)
MMULT(MMULT(TRANSPOSE(I4:I9),B4:G9),I4:I9)
SHIFT+CTRL+ENTER
CORRELATION
correlation matrix
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 1 0.5791 0.2870 -0.0950 1.2005 0.3030
MSFT 0.5791 1 0.0885 0.0286 0.0144 0.0223
JNJ 0.2870 0.0885 1 0.0228 0.0127 -0.0018
K -0.0950 0.0286 0.0228 1 -0.0096 -0.0021
BA 1.2005 0.0144 0.0127 -0.0096 1 0.0112
IBM 0.3030 0.0223 -0.0018 -0.0021 0.0112 1
ONE standard deviation matrix THREE
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 0.3217 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MSFT 0.0000 0.4071 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JNJ 0.0000 0.0000 0.1897 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
K 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2386 0.0000 0.0000
BA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2993 0.0000
IBM 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1356
TWO covariance matrix correlation matrix verified
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM FIVE
GE 0.1035 0.0758 0.0222 -0.0043 0.0857 0.0123
MSFT 0.0758 0.1657 0.0412 -0.0052 0.0379 -0.0022
JNJ 0.0222 0.0412 0.0360 0.0181 0.0101 -0.0039
K -0.0043 -0.0052 0.0181 0.0570 -0.0076 -0.0046
BA 0.0857 0.0379 0.0101 -0.0076 0.0896 0.0248
IBM 0.0123 -0.0022 -0.0039 -0.0046 0.0248 0.0184
FOUR std dev inverse
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 3.1083 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MSFT 0.0000 2.4563 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JNJ 0.0000 0.0000 5.2728 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 step
K 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 4.1903 0.0000 0.0000
BA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.3413 0.0000
IBM 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 7.3738
formula
1 cov = drd
2 r= dinv cov dinv
how toget correlation matrix verified
1 select cells by pressing ctrl L11 : Q16
2 MMULT(MMULT( MATA,MATB),MATC)
3 PRESS CTRL+SHIFT+ENTER
4 GET CORREL MATRIX VERIFIED AS ABOVE
EXCESS RETURNS variance covariance matrix
DATE GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
3-Jan-94 0.3278 -0.2289 -0.1242 -0.1531 0.3111 0.0389 GE
3-Jan-95 -0.0543 0.1183 0.2313 0.0194 -0.2786 -0.1159 MSFT
2-Jan-96 0.3327 0.2290 0.3928 0.3225 0.3793 0.0970 JNJ
2-Jan-97 0.1921 0.5773 0.0451 -0.1060 0.2672 0.2346 K
2-Jan-98 0.2345 0.1665 -0.0081 0.2653 0.0949 -0.1500 BA
4-Jan-99 0.1089 0.6387 0.0819 -0.1625 -0.1257 -0.1974 IBM
3-Jan-00 0.0449 -0.1018 -0.1502 -0.5444 0.1590 0.0614
2-Jan-01 -0.1905 -0.6858 -0.0774 0.0615 0.0067 0.0414 SHARES O/S
2-Jan-02 -0.4340 -0.1711 0.0468 0.1439 -0.4271 -0.1308 MKT VALUE
2-Jan-03 -0.6845 -0.5085 -0.2410 0.0537 -0.5086 -0.0209 % OF PORT
2-Jan-04 0.1224 -0.0338 -0.1970 0.0997 0.1220 0.1417
GE MSFT JNJ K BA
GE 0.3217 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MSFT 0.0000 0.4071 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JNJ 0.0000 0.0000 0.1897 0.0000 0.0000
K 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2386 0.0000
BA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2993
IBM 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
GE MSFT JNJ K BA
GE 3.1083 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MSFT 0.0000 2.4563 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JNJ 0.0000 0.0000 5.2728 0.0000 0.0000
K 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 4.1903 0.0000
BA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.3413
IBM 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
C) CORRELATION COEFFICIENT MATRIX R
IBM
0.0002
0.0000
-0.0001
-0.0001
0.0005
0.0184
IBM
0.2819
-0.0406
-0.1529
-0.1427
0.6116
1
1 VARIANCE COVARIANCE MATRIX 2
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 0.1035 0.0758 0.0222 -0.0043 0.0857 0.0123
MSFT 0.0758 0.1657 0.0412 -0.0052 0.0379 -0.0022
JNJ 0.0222 0.0412 0.0360 0.0181 0.0101 -0.0039
K -0.0043 -0.0052 0.0181 0.0570 -0.0076 -0.0046
BA 0.0857 0.0379 0.0101 -0.0076 0.0896 0.0248
IBM 0.0123 -0.0022 -0.0039 -0.0046 0.0248 0.0184
4 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT 3
GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
GE 1 0.5791 0.3632 -0.0560 0.8905 0.2819
MSFT 0.5791 1 0.5340 -0.0532 0.3113 -0.0406
JNJ 0.3632 0.5340 1 0.4002 0.1780 -0.1529
K -0.0560 -0.0532 0.4002 1 -0.1067 -0.1427
BA 0.8905 0.3113 0.1780 -0.1067 1 0.6116
IBM 0.2819 -0.0406 -0.1529 -0.1427 0.6116 1