Question 4

a)

iPhone Sales data

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Jan
Mar

Sep

Jan
Mar

Sep

Jan
Mar

Sep

Jan
Mar

Sep
May

May

May

May
Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov
The nature of the seasonal is seasonal with trend

REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR TOTAL FORCASTED DEMAND IN NEXT YEAR

X (Year) 1 2 3 4
Y (Total Demand 11724 13312 14917 16612

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999876
R Square 0.999752
Adjusted R Square -3
Standard Error
36.74235
Observations 1

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 5445000 1815000 4033.333 #NUM!
Residual 1 1350 1350
Total 4 5446350

Coefficients
Standard Error t StatP-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 9.7E-152 9.7E-152
1 5.9E-269 -7E-269
2 9997 80.77747 123.7598 0.005144 8970.625 11023.38 8970.625 11023.38
3 1650 25.98076 63.50853 0.010023 1319.883 1980.117 1319.883 1980.117
4
b) i Monthly demand of next year (5th year) ignoring the trend

Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal 5th year Seasonal

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
factor(1) factor(2) factor(3) factor(4) forecast factor (5)
Jan 742 0.75947 791 0.71304 971 0.78112 1051 0.75921 916 0.60257
Feb 697 0.71341 750 0.67608 868 0.69826 961 0.69420 846 0.55639
Mar 776 0.79427 824 0.74279 960 0.77227 1038 0.74982 930 0.61183
Apr 898 0.91914 982 0.88522 1,130 0.90903 1,209 0.87334 1091 0.71735
May 1,030 1.05425 1,149 1.03576 1,279 1.02889 1,374 0.99254 1250 0.82229
Jun 1,107 1.13306 1,273 1.14754 1,401 1.12704 1,522 1.09945 1371 0.90142
Jul 1,165 1.19243 1,340 1.20793 1,378 1.10853 1,586 1.14568 1416 0.93091
Aug 1,216 1.24463 1,399 1.26112 1,511 1.21553 1,655 1.19552 1495 0.98336
Sep 1,208 1.23644 1,391 1.25391 1,548 1.24529 1,704 1.23092 1510 0.99331
Oct 1,131 1.15763 1,346 1.21334 1,528 1.22920 1,700 1.22803 1468 0.96564
Nov 971 0.99386 1,116 1.00601 1,245 1.00154 1,503 1.08572 1243 0.81743
Dec 783 0.80143 951 0.85727 1,098 0.88329 1,309 0.94558 1061 0.69751
Average
977 1109.333 1243.083 1384.333 1520.58333
Demand
Total
11724 13312 14917 16612 18247
Demand
*5th year seasonal factor in a month = average of past 4 seasonal factors of the month
5th year total demand:
using regression model y=ax+b
b 9997 y = total demand in a year
a 1650 x = year
for x= 5, y is equal to 18247
b) ii Monthly demand of next year (5th year) considering trend

Forcasted
Average
Seasonal Deseasonalised demand for
t Year 1 2 3 4 Monthly Level (L) Trend (T)
Factor(Si) demand 5th year
sales
(L+Tt)Si
1 Jan 742 791 971 1051 888.75 0.754177 1393.57 1384.80 8.771 1051
2 Feb 697 750 868 961 819 0.694988 1382.76 1373.99 17.541 967
3 Mar 776 824 960 1038 899.5 0.763299 1359.89 1351.12 26.312 1051
4 Apr 898 982 1,130 1,209 1054.75 0.895041 1350.78 1342.01 35.083 1233
5 May 1,030 1,149 1,279 1,374 1208 1.025086 1340.38 1331.60 43.853 1410
6 Jun 1,107 1,273 1,401 1,522 1325.75 1.125007 1352.88 1344.11 52.624 1571
7 Jul 1,165 1,340 1,378 1,586 1367.25 1.160223 1366.98 1358.21 61.395 1647
8 Aug 1,216 1,399 1,511 1,655 1445.25 1.226412 1349.46 1340.69 70.166 1730
9 Sep 1,208 1,391 1,548 1,704 1462.75 1.241262 1372.80 1364.03 78.936 1791
10 Oct 1,131 1,346 1,528 1,700 1426.25 1.210289 1404.62 1395.85 87.707 1796
11 Nov 971 1,116 1,245 1,503 1208.75 1.025723 1465.31 1456.54 96.478 1593
12 Dec 783 951 1,098 1,309 1035.25 0.878494 1490.05 1481.28 105.248 1394
1178.438

Trend (T) 8.771

c)

Actual Forcasted Aboslute

Year Error
Demand Demand error
Jan 1,155 1051 104 104
Feb 1,157 967 190 190
Mar 1,251 1051 200 200
Apr 1,410 1233 177 177
May 1,593 1410 183 183
Jun 1,762 1571 191 191
Jul 1,736 1647 89 89
Aug 1,733 1730 3 3
Sep 1,653 1791 -138 138
Oct 1,545 1796 -251 251
Nov 1,244 1593 -349 349
Dec 1,138 1394 -256 256

Cumulative forecast error 143

Mean absolute deviation 177

Tracking signal: 0.80558