California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

February 2019
 Sales Highest in 6 Months
California, February 2019 Sales: 399,080 Units, -9.0% YTD, -5.6% YTY
700,000

600,000
Feb-18: Feb-19:
422,910 399,080
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales down 10 Months in a
Row
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Still down but Had the Smallest
Decline since Oct 2018
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%
-5.8%

-10%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

Sep-18
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 So. California Sales Declined, but Drop Less
than 10% for the1st Time in 4 Months
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
-9.6%
-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Continues to Decline,
but Decrease at a Slower Pace
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-6.3%
-10%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in All Price Segments
February 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
-0.3%
$0 - $199k 5.9%
-5% -3.6%
-4.2% -5.6% $200 - $299k 14.9%
-6.4%
-10%
$300 - $399k 16.3%
-11.4%
-15% $400 - $499k 14.4%

$500 - $749k 24.0%

-20%
-19.5%
$750 - $999k 10.4%

-25% -23.1%
$1,000 - $1,999k 10.9%

$2,000k+ 3.2%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a Very
Modest Pace
California, February 2019: $534,140, -0.6% MTM, +2.2% YTY
Feb-19:
P:May-07
$700,000 $534,140
$594,530 Feb-18:
$522,440
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Growth Remained near Lowest Level
since Early 2012
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Median Price Had Its First
Year-over Year Dip since April 2012
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Feb-18: Feb-19:
$300,000 $454,500 $450,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Dec-07

Dec-12

Dec-17
Jan-05

Jan-10

Jan-15
Nov-05
Jun-05

Sep-06

Jun-10

Jun-15
Jul-07

Sep-11

Sep-16
May-08
Oct-08

Nov-10

Jul-12

May-13
Oct-13

Nov-15

Jul-17

May-18
Oct-18
Apr-06

Aug-09

Apr-11

Aug-14

Apr-16
Mar-09

Mar-14
Feb-07

Feb-12

Feb-17
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
Caliornia Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (February 2019)
8%
6.1%
6%
4% 3.2%
2.2%
2%
0.1%
0%

-2% -1.1%
-2.2%
-4%
-4.0%
-6% -4.6%

-8%
-8.3%
-10%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales
Price Growth
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 Months
40%

30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-15
Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18
Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 33.4%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.0%
California Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
45% 33.4%9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
4.0%
15% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
1/1/2010

10/1/2010

10/1/2011

10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2014

4/1/2015

10/1/2015

10/1/2016

10/1/2017

7/1/2018
10/1/2018
4/1/2010
7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015

7/1/2015

1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016

1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018

1/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Inched Up from Last Year
and Last Month
February 2019: $272, Up 3.0% MTM, Up 2.3% YTY
$400
Feb-19:
$350 Feb-18: $272
$266
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales Price -to-List Price Bounced Back
after Hitting Lowest Level in Four Years
February 2019: 98.0%, +0.7% MTM, -1.2% YTY
Feb-18:
Feb-19:
99.2%
98.0%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
100.5%
100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5% 99.3% 99.3% 99.2% 99.2%
99.0% 98.9% 98.9%

98.5%
98.0%
98.0%

97.5%

97.0%

96.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Feb-18 Feb-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Dipped from Prior Month
for the First Time since March 2018
California, February 2019: 33.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
California Median Time on Market by Quintile
40
35
35 33 32 32 32
29
30 26
25 25 25
25 23 22 21 20
20 18
15 16
14 14 13
15
10
5
0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Feb-18 Feb-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Three Years
February 2018: 3.9 Months; February 2019: 4.6 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Had Smallest Growth in Six
Months
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

19.2%
20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price vs. Price/Sq. Ft

Feb 2019
Median Price (YTY% Chg.) Median Price/Sq. Ft. (YTY% Chg.)
20%
12.5%
10% 6.5% 6.8%
5.2%
3.4%
1.7%
0%
-1.2%
-5.9% -6.1% -4.7% -4.9%
-10% -8.4% -7.1%
-9.2%
-12.4% -11.5%
-13.0%
-15.4%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Housing Supply Improved in All but the Lowest
Price Segment
Feb 2019
Active Listing
40%
31.3%
30% 25.9%
22.1%
18.0% 19.2%
20% 14.3%
9.3%
10%

0%

-10%
-9.0%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0 5.3

4.0 3.8
3.3
3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions

Feb-18 Feb-19
30,000
26,946

25,000
22,379

20,000
Active Listings

15,000

10,000 9,383
8,078
5,593
5,000 3,941
2,092 2,225

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Feb 2019

Sales Active Listings

50%
41.9%
40%
Year-to-Year % Chg

30%
20.4%
20% 16.2%

10% 6.4%

0%
-4.4% -3.8%
-10% -6.3%
-9.6%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment
18
15.8
16
14
12 11.5

10
8.3
8 7.0
6.1 6.3
6 5.2 5.1 5.4
4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6
4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9
4 3.43.7 3.4 3.4 3.6

2
0

Feb-18 Feb-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
California Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

20182 2019