DECISION TREES

POHON KEPUTUSAN
Decision trees terdiri dari :
 Square decision nodes
 Circle probability nodes
 Branches as decision alternatives

State of Nature
Decision Good ec cond Poor ec con
(0,60) (0,40)
Apartment $ 50.000 30.000
Office 100.000 -40.000
Warehouse 30.000 10.000

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 Dengan contoh di atas, dapat dibuat decision tree sebagai berikut :
0.6 $ 50.000

2
30.000
Apartement 0.4

0.6 100.000

1 3
Office
- 40.000
Purchase 0.4

Warehouse 0.6 30.000

4
10.000
0.4

2
 Expected value

$ 42.000 0.6 $ 50.000

2
30.000
Apartement 0.4

$ 44.000
0.6 100.000

1 3
Office
- 40.000
Purchase 0.4

$ 22.000
Warehouse 0.6 30.000

4
10.000
0.4

3
 $ 2.000.000
Population
growth

0.6
2 0.4
Apartement No pop. growth 225.000 Pop.
- 800.000 growth $ 3.000.000

Build apart.
( - $ 800.000 ) 0.8
6
0.2

1 Pop. Growth (3
4 No pop. $ 700.000
years, $ 0
Purchase payoff)
growth

Sell land $ 450.000

Land
(-200.000) 0.6 Pop
growth $ 2.300.000
3
0.4
Dev. Comm. 0.3
( - $ 600.000) 7
0.7
No pop.
Growth (3 No pop.
years, $ 0 growth $ 1.000.000
payoff) 5

Sell land $ 210.000

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