Recent Advances in Energy and Environmental Management

Traffic Growth rate and Composition of Dhaka-Chittagong Highway (N-1)

of Bangladesh: The Actual situation

MOHAMMAD AHAD ULLAH1, DR. MD. SHAMSUL HOQUE2, DR. HAMID NIKRAZ3
Department of Civil Engineering
1,3
Curtin University, 2Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
1,3
Western Australia, 2Dhaka
1,3
AUSTRALIA, 2BANGLADESH

Email: 1m.ullah2@student.curtin.edu.au, 2shoque@ce.buet.ac.bd, 3H.Nikraz@curtin.edu.au

Abstract: - In transportation planning and operations, analysis of traffic growth pattern and traffic composition
carry great significance. Developing countries like Bangladesh has serious shortcoming in performing such
analyses due to unavailability of required traffic data. In recent years ministry of communication of Bangladesh has
established computerized toll plaza in different National Highways of Bangladesh such as Dhaka-Chittagong
highway (N-1) that is one of the most vital highway of Bangladesh. Since the opening of computerized toll plaza on
Meghna and Gomoti bridges along N-1 corridor in 2004, the toll collectors have been recording and preserving
round-the-year continuous flow data in a systematic manner. The study has taken this prospect of utilizing four
years of flow data along the corridor from the year 2006 to 2009 and has performed a traffic growth pattern and
composition analyses. From the analyses, it has been found that the yearly growth of total traffic is about 21.03%,
which is much higher than the factor presently used by transport authorities in Bangladesh. Besides, vehicle class
wise traffic growth factors are analyzed and numbers of heavy vehicles like trucks are increased 1.5 times during
the four year period. Moreover, traffic composition, particularly the proportion of heavy vehicles in a traffic stream,
is a very important parameter of traffic flow. The average percentage of trucks are found from 2006 to 2009 is
34.40%. These figures can be more precisely obtained up to higher level of confidence by populating more traffic
data into the framework established during this study. The transport authorities should take necessary actions for
preserving longer period of continuous flow data in order to perform such analysis at a precise level. By using
actual traffic growth and composition pattern curves and factors, it is possible to design more efficient highways in
Bangladesh.
Key-Words: - Traffic growth factor, Traffic volume, Traffic composition, National highway, vehicle class
percentage.

1 Introduction For the analysis of traffic growth pattern, long

In developing countries like Bangladesh, growth rate
of traffic is a normal incident. Substantial agricultural
and economic growth in different sectors during the
last two decades caused significant increase in
passenger and freight movement for the whole
country. From the transportation point of view, it is of
great importance to analyze the pattern of actual
traffic growth trends in all prime highway locations in
a country. Traffic growth rate is a vital parameter for
prediction of future traffic demand and therefore
carries significant importance in terms planning,
designing of new highway facilities, as well as
operation and maintenance of existing facilities, toll
collection and other related issues.
duration continuous traffic flow data along a specific
location of highway is required [1]. Considering the
economic status of Bangladesh, it is quite
understandable that, this is an expensive task for the
government to take up the initiative to set up
permanent traffic counting stations at important
locations, since the measure requires high fixed and
running cost. As a result, the highway authority has
never been able to record and preserve the continuous
traffic flow data by which an authentic traffic growth
pattern or rate could be analyzed. The required design
parameters used by the transport authorities,
designers, consultants, planners have been assumed on
the basis of short counts, or less accurate data, which
may lead to inefficient geometric and structural design

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 Recent Advances in Energy and Environmental Management
of highways. Therefore, the need for continuous
traffic data and its proper analysis to obtain actual
growth pattern is easily understood. For example, the
Roads and Highways Pavement Design Guide 2005
sets a 10% growth rate for the national highways [2].
The compatibility of this value with the actual growth
rate can only be compared, if true growth rate analysis
can be made on the basis of actual continuous traffic
flow data.
Since the commencement of operation of Meghna-
Gomoti Bridges in 2004, according to the toll
collection, bridge operation and maintenance
agreement with the Roads and Highways Department
of Bangladesh, the toll operators have been
systematically recording and preserving daily traffic
flow data along with the toll collection information.
Gaining access to the traffic flow database, this study
has effectively utilized the opportunity to analyze four
years of daily traffic flow data on the Meghna-Gomoti
Bridges and performed a traffic growth pattern and
composition analysis on the corridor, which has given
a broader understanding over the actual traffic growth
pattern and composition on the corridor.
2 Objectives and Scope of the Study
The main objective of this study is to analyze yearly
traffic flow data on a selected highway corridor to
obtain the growth pattern and traffic composition of
traffic. The growth rates and composition of total
vehicle as well as various vehicle classes are also to be
determined.
This study has been performed on Meghna-Gomoti
Bridges traffic data, which is the entry and exit point
of Dhaka-Chittagong highway (N-1) corridor.
Therefore, the growth pattern analysis has been
rendered for the selected corridor only. The corridor
selection has been mainly governed by the availability
of sufficient amount of high quality data.
3 Literature Review
Study on traffic flow pattern and its variability over
time carries a great importance to understand the
characteristics of a traffic stream. Analysis of traffic
flow pattern from existing data is performed to
determine important characteristics of traffic flow that
are used in geometric & structural design of highways,
traffic monitoring programs, roadway maintenance
ISBN: 978-960-474-312-4
and operation, economic evaluation, traffic flow
prediction, highway financing, evaluation of safety
programs and many other related decision making.
While transport authorities and agencies in many
developed countries extensively record traffic flow
data through short counting as well as continuous
counting stations in order to monitor their trend of
traffic growth and changes in traffic characteristics,
but not many studies have been performed in
Bangladesh on traffic characteristics. Previously
performed studies in Bangladesh on related topic
reveals that similar studies was carried out by Roads
and Highways Department, as a part of Development
of Geometric Design Standards in 1994, on some
important highways [1]. Muhibur Rahman performed
studies on Vehicular Flow Pattern on Jamuna
Multipurpose Bridge Access Road in 2002 [3].
Hamid-Uz-Zaman completed another study in Traffic
Flow Characteristics and Modeling for Estimation of
AADT in selected Rural Highways in 2006 [4].
Mohammad Ahad Ullah carried out research on
Evaluation of Pavement Design Parameters for
National Highways of Bangladesh [5]. In addition,
guidelines are followed for analysis of traffic
characteristics from Traffic Monitoring Guidelines
2001, published by Federal Highway Administration
of U.S. Department of Transport, which have been
helpful for this type of research [6].
4 Data Collection
The traffic data that has been used in this study for the
growth pattern analysis is primarily collected by the
Operation and Maintenance Companies of Meghna-
Gomoti Bridges. From the year 2006 to 2009, traffic
flow daily data have been collected by the toll
operators RCL and MBEL-ATT JV.
The traffic data has been recorded by the operators by
direct entry from the toll plaza and they have been
electronically preserved at the main database. These
flow data have then been collected from the operators
with official permission from Roads and Highways
Department of Bangladesh and have been used in this
study to perform the required analysis. From the
analysis of flow pattern in different time scales, the
data has resulted repetitive nature of flow patterns,
which refers that the selected corridor is stable from
traffic flow point of view and the traffic data are
reliable.
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 Recent Advances in Energy and Environmental Management

5 Data Analysis and Findings

In this study, growth pattern of total traffic as well as
individual vehicle classes have been analyzed. Yearly
growth factor of total traffic has also been determined.
The following sections discusses the traffic growth
trend and rates in light of the data analysis.

5.1 Growth rate of total traffic

Fig. 1 Yearly traffic growth on Dhaka-Chittagong
From the analysis of the yearly traffic volume on Highway (N-1)
Meghna-Gomoti Bridges, it has been revealed that the
amount of traffic is increasing at a fairly constant rate. Table 2: Yearly Growth Rate of Total Traffic
In 2006, the total bi-directional traffic volume was
3,206,277 while it reached almost 5.6 million in the Total Yearly Average
Growth
year 2009. Table 1 shows the bi-directional flow Year Volume (Both Growth
Factor
volume of each vehicle class as well as total traffic on way) Factor
Meghna-Gomoti Bridges from 2006 to 2009. From 2006 3,210,410 -
Figure 1, it can be seen that the total traffic is 2007 4,313,837 34.370
increasing every year at a significant rate and the 21.03%
2008 4,732,949 9.716
pattern maintains almost linear growth of traffic. 2009 5,632,798 19.012
From the calculation of yearly growth rate, as shown
in Table 2, it can be seen that, yearly increase in It can be observed in Table 2 that, the growth rate of
traffic during the study period has ranged from 10% to total traffic in 2007 was 34.37%, which is much
18% per annum and the average growth factor of total higher than following years. Therefore, it can be
traffic from 2006 to 2009 is 21.03% per annum. concluded that the traffic growth trend along this
corridor is not yet stable. It is to be mentioned here
Table 1: Yearly Bi-Directional Traffic Volume on that, economic growth is not the only governing issue
Dhaka-Chittagong Highway (N-1) against this growth pattern, but also political stability,
government policy, availability of alternate route,
shifting of traffic to the study corridor play important
Yearly Bi-Directional Traffic Volume roles in this regard. Notwithstanding, since the
Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 corridor does not have any alternate route, it may be
Motor assumed that, the actual growth pattern has been truly
9,743 22,729 36,975 46,896
Cycle reflected in the analysis. It is therefore observed that
Scooter/ the growth rate used by the Roads and Highways
15976 76496 206866 291080
Tampo Department’s Pavement Design Guide 2005 is
Car/Jeep 433710 569262 609759 756199 significantly lower than that obtained in this study.
Micro/ However, populating more yearly traffic data into the
455243 667038 742149 994568
Pickup analysis framework for another 5-6 years may reveal a
Minibus better understanding of the actual growth factor of
431617 570851 524010 535970
/Coaster traffic along the corridor.
Bus 500227 680413 715618 788149
Truck 1178966 1459489 1594506 1876198 5.2 Classified vehicular growth rates
Trailer 47118 89800 101870 115995
Toll From the preceding discussion, it has been found that
Free 133677 177759 201196 227743 the growth rate of total traffic on the Meghna-Gomoti
Vehicle Bridges corridor is 21.03% per annum. It is also
Total evaluated that different vehicles classes have different
3206277 4313837 4732949 5632798 growth factor. Figure 2 shows the growth pattern of
Vehicle
each individual vehicle class. It is observed from the

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 Recent Advances in Energy and Environmental Management

Figure that the main predominant vehicle classes viz.
Trucks are increasing at a quite steep rate while the
rest of the classes did not increase to considerable
extent during the study period.
In Table 3, the yearly bi-directional volume of Buses
on Meghna-Gomoti Bridges are given. It can be
observed that, the total number of mini
bus/coaster/mini truck have increased and also, the
total number of bus has increased 1.5 times from 2006
to 2009. In 2006, total bi-directional volume of Bus
was 497,938 while it increased to almost one and half
times number 788,149 in 2009. The average rate of
growth of Bus is 17.32% per annum. It is to be
mentioned here that a large number of mini buses was
replaced by introduction of luxury chair coaches in the
concerned years. This might have been caused by
banning of old, unfit small buses on road, which in
turn was replaced by new chair coaches. The demand
of luxury buses capable of cutting down travel time
along the Dhaka-Chittagong highway might have
caused this as well.

In the case of Trucks, which is presented in Table 4, is

found that Truck contains the highest percentage of
traffic on N-1 corridor. In the year 2006, total volume
was 11,82,337 and it increased to more than 1.5 times
Fig. 2 Vehicle class wise yearly flow on Meghna- during the next four years. Although due to
Gomoti Bridges consequent increase in total traffic, the growth in
annual percentage is declining. From 2006 to 2009,
the percentage has dropped from 36.77% to 33.31%.
Table 3: Yearly Bi-Directional Volume of Buses Ineffectiveness of axle load control station has
Mini promoted excess load carried by these truck
Bus/ frequently. Hence, the Dhaka-Chittagang highway is
Total suffering extremely heavy loads then their design
Year Coaster/ Bus
Buses load. The percentage of trailer is very nominal with
Mini
Truck respect to traffic stream in N-1 corridor, but the
2006 431,839 497,938 929,777 number of trailers is increasing very rapidly. In 2006,
2007 570,851 680,413 1,251,264 the total number of trailers is found 47,491 and the
2008 524,010 715,618 1,239,628 number has increased to 115,995 in 2009.
2009 535,970 788,149 1,324,119
Average 515,668 670,530 1,186,197
From the above discussion, it has been found that,
heavier vehicle viz. Buses and Trucks are increasing
Table 4: Yearly Bi-Directional Volume of Trucks at a higher rate than the total vehicles, which is clearly
Total an indication of increased economic growth and
Year Truck Trailer Trucks & transport demand. Considering the importance of
Trailers heavy vehicles in terms of geometric and structural
design of pavement, the highway engineers while
2006 1,182,337 47,491 1,229,828
designing new facilities should consider their true
2007 1,459,489 89,800 1,549,289 growth rates of traffic.
2008 1,594,506 101,870 1,696,376
2009 1,876,198 115,995 1,992,193
Average 1,528,133 88,789 1,616,922

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 Recent Advances in Energy and Environmental Management

5.3 Heavy Vehicles Percentage

Percentage of heavy vehicles refers to the percentage
of truck and bus in a traffic stream. Heavier vehicles
cause more damage to the roadway. For this reason,
this is an important parameter for structural design of
highway. Moreover, higher proportion of larger sized
vehicles is important in the aspect of geometric design
of highways as large vehicles are critical for the
design of grade, turnings, road width, warrant for
curve widening and auxiliary lane at vertical curve
etc. The following section discusses the proportion of
heavier vehicles on Meghna and Gomoti bridges flow
and their travel pattern.

5.3.1 Truck percentage

In Meghna and Gomoti bridges, according to the
vehicle classification system used by the operators,
vehicle having capacity of 5 ton to 8 ton are classed as
trucks. This class is most common in Bangladesh and
hence contributor of the highest percentage of traffic.
Also, some trucks capacity is more than 8 ton and
Fig. 3 Traffic composition pattern on Meghna-
usually possesses more than two rear axles. It is
Gomoti Bridges (in percentage of total vehicle)
observed from field survey that the toll collectors are
often confused about the classification between the
In Fig. 3, vehicle class percentages on Meghna- trucks falling near to boundary conditions.
Gomoti bridges are shown. It is found that, truck has However, from the analyses of traffic flow data from
the highest percentage in the traffic stream. In 2006, 2006 to 2009 on Meghna and Gomoti bridges, taking
the percentage was 36.77% and during the next years the average of these years, it is found that the
the proportion is almost same. The average percentage percentage of all classes of trucks 36.34% of total
of truck from 2006 to 2009 is 34.40%. The second vehicle. Among this, the percentages of trucks and
highest percentage of vehicle class is Micro/Pick-up, trailers are 34.40% and 1.94% respectively which is
the proportion of which was 14.20% in 2006 and shown in Table 5.
17.66% in 2009. The average percentage of
Micro/Pick-up from 2006 to 2009 is 15.75%. The Table 5: Truck Percentages on Meghna-Gomoti
third highest contributing class to the total traffic flow Bridges (Both Direction)
is bus. In 2006, its percentage was 15.60% and it
became 13.99% in the year of 2009, the average is Total
found to be 15.12%. The fourth highest vehicle class Year Truck Trailer Trucks &
is Car/Jeep, which has 13.53% in 2006 and 13.42% in Trailers
2009 making average from 2006 to 2009 is 13.26%. 2006 36.77% 1.47% 38.24%
Analyzing the traffic flow data on Meghna-Gomoti 2007 33.83% 2.08% 35.91%
bridges from 2006 to 2009, it is found that these three 2008 33.69% 2.15% 35.84%
pre-dominant vehicle classes comprise of total 78.53%
2009 33.31% 2.06% 35.37%
of total traffic flow. Rest 21.47% is shared between
minibus/coaster/Mini Truck (11.82%), motorcycle Average 34.40% 1.94% 36.34%
(0.61%), scooter/tampu (2.95%), trailer (1.94%) and Date Source: RCL, MBEL-ATT JV.
toll free (4.15%). It is seen from the graph that the
percentage of heavier vehicles especially Truck is 5.3.2 Bus percentage
increasing every year and lighter vehicles are Buses passing through Meghna and Gomoti bridges
decreasing. are classified into two groups namely Mini Bus/
Coaster/ Mini Truck and large Bus are called Bus.

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Buses having capacity of 30 seats of less are classed
as mini bus and buses having more than 30 seats
capacity are classed as Bus.
Table 6: Bus Percentages on Meghna-Gomoti Bridges
(Both Direction)
Mini Bus/
Year Bus Total Buses
Coaster
2006 13.46% 15.60% 29.06%
2007 13.23% 15.77% 29.01%
2008 11.07% 15.12% 26.19%
2009 9.52% 13.99% 23.51%
Average 11.82% 15.12% 26.94%
Date Source: RCL, MBEL-ATT JV.
It is seen from table 6 that total 26.94% of total annual
flow (taking average from 2006 to 2009) comprises of
buses. Among this, 15.12% is bus and 11.82% is mini
bus. It can be seen that the percentage of bus has
slightly decreasing with respect to total traffic
(15.60% in 2006 and 13.99% in 2009). The growth
factor of bus from the year 2006 to 2009 is found
36.65%, 5.17%, and 10.14% respectedly. The
percentage of bus has increased every year at an
average rate of 17.32% per annum.
6 Conclusions and Recommendations
Four years of data is not sufficient to reliably analyze
the actual growth pattern of traffic in a major highway
like Dhaka-Chittagong highway in Bangladesh.
However, this study has taken this attempt because
presently no further continuous count data is available
along this corridor. From the analyses performed in
this study, a generalized idea of traffic growth trend in
the selected corridor has been discovered. By proper
preservation of round-the year traffic data and
populating more years’ of data within this present
framework, a more generalized traffic growth pattern
analysis can be made possible along this highway.
In this regard, the following recommendations are
suggested which would be largely beneficial for future
analysis of traffic growth patterns in Dhaka-
Chittagong highway in Bangladesh.
 Corridor specific traffic growth factor should be
established which will help to measure future
traffic demand.
ISBN: 978-960-474-312-4
 Class wise vehicular growth factors should be
considered and the same should be regularly
updated using recently data.
 Initiative may be taken to instruct all Highway toll
operators to keep flow records in hourly basis. A
valuable traffic database can be generated in every
corridor by introducing this technique.
 A specified data collection and preservation
system in electronic format may be introduced by
RHD to ensure proper data collection in tolled
bridges without spending any money for data
collection purpose.
 Transport authorities, agencies should formulate
frameworks for collecting and preserving long
duration traffic data obtained from the toll plazas.
References:
[1] Development of Geometric Design Standards,
“Road Material and Standards Study
Bangladesh”, 1994, Volume VIIA, Roads and
Highways Department, GOB.
[2] Pavement Design Guide, Roads and
Highways Department, 2005, Ministry of
Communication, Government of Bangladesh.
[3] Rahman S.K., “Study of Vehicular Flow
Pattern on Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge
Access Road”, 2002, Dept. of Civil
Engineering, MIST.
[4] Zaman H.U., "Traffic Flow Characteristics
and Modeling for Estimation of AADT in
Selected Rural Highways", 2006 Dept. of
Civil Engineering, BUET.
[5] Ullah, M. A., “Evaluation of Pavement
Design Parameters for National Highways of
Bangladesh”, 2012, Department of Civil
Engineering, BUET.
[6] Traffic Monitoring Guidelines, Federal
Highway Administration, 2011, U.S.
Department of Transport.
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