ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615

Objectives of Presentation
 Rationale behind 300, 700 and 1700 return period
maps
 Basis for new wind speed maps
 Basis for re-introduction of Exposure D
 Basis for missile impact area
Facts About the ASCE 7-05 Wind
Speed Map
 In most of the non-hurricane US mainland, the
mapped values are exactly a 50 year mean
recurrence interval (MRI)
 Wind speeds in hurricane prone regions are NOT 50
year MRI values. The mapped values vary from ~50
to ~100 years along the hurricane coastline.
 Wind speeds along the hurricane coastline have
been adjusted upward so that when incorporated with
the wind LF, produce a wind load having a consistent
hazard level with the interior US (~700 MRI)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

ASCE 7-10 Wind Maps

 New Hurricane Simulation Model
 Windfield

 Filling (weakening after landfall)

 Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)

 Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)

 Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds

 ASCE 7-10 uses a strength or limit state wind speed map (wind
load factor = 1 for strength design, 0.6 for ASD)
 Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
 ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/√1.6

 Category III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds

 Category I structures use 300 year RP winds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 4

 2.5
Hurricane (Miami)

2.0 WLF*1.143 = 1.828
Load Factor  [VT/V50]2

WLF = 1.6
1.5 Non‐Hurricane 
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2

1.0

1.143
0.5 1.00

0.0
1 10 50 100 709 1000 1697 10000
Return Period (Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

2.5
Hurricane (New York City)

2.0 WLF*1.143 = 1.828
Load Factor  [VT/V50]2

WLF = 1.6
1.5 Non‐Hurricane 
[VT/V50]2=[0.36+0.1ln(12T)]2

1.0

1.143
0.5 1.00

0.0
1 10 50 100 709 1000 1697 10000
Return Period (Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

 Basis of Design Wind Speeds
New Hurricane Simulation Model
180
 160 Hurricanes

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Non-Hurricanes
140
 Improved wind field model 120
Combined

100

 New filling model (weakening 80

60
after landfall) 40
20

 New Holland B model 0

10 100 1000 10000

(pressure-wind relationship) Return Period (Years)

 New model for tracks and

pressures (landfall location and
intensity)
 Results in lower design wind
speeds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 7

Additional Data in New Model

2000 Current
Parameter Model Model Increase
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind 63 245 390%
recorded) used to validate windfield model
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine 0 650
boundary layer model
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model 17 35 100%
Number of landfall hurricanes 167 189 13%
Number of landfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure) 70 84 20%
Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model 38 57 68%
Number of years of landfall data used to develop model 96 107 11%

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 8

Simulation Methodology !
987

!9
88
!9
88
!9
!
90
and Long . direction 990
Site Lat vs !
e inland ! d on
Distanc 991 rne
! 991 8 ) tu
20 0
t al,
! ry e ite
" icke s
Step 3: ! el (V m of
te p 4: ld mod 250 k }
Storm Filling ! 984 S dfie V t, r
ithin
Central pressure filling (Vickery
, 2005)
! Win rm w RMW ,
982 if s to , B ,
2 B filling f {P c
98 ! V=
6 985
97
! 9 ! 985
! 96 1
! 96 ! 981
1
! 95
9 981!
! 94
3 !
! 94 ! 966
5 re
94 928 ! ssu
! Pre rval)
924 ! tral te
4 Cen our in
97 !
(6 h
! 936 ! 0 6
4 ! 95 941 96 6
97 ! ! ! ! ! 96 97
5 1 8
! ! 76 8 7 2 99 99 998 997
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !9 98 98 987 981 982 73 69 2 98 !
97 ! !
970

! ! ! 9 9 ! !
! ! ! ! !
! !
960

!
!
954

!
948

08
974
!
949

946

06
973
!

10
! !

998

10
! !

993
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

991
983
!

986

987
987
3

! !
rms
95

! !
!
! ! ! ! ! !
rr or te
p 1: torm We
Ste li ze S nd RM
a
Initia ple B
Sam pute I
Com
Step 2: s
re
5 Squa
o
and V t
new  I
Sam ple new value of
te 008)
Compu P c, B, RMW hera (2
te and Wad
Compu from Vickery
B, RMW

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 9

Wind Model Overview

 Described in peer reviewed engineering and
meteorological literature.
 Includes asymmetries caused by variable friction as
well as translation speed
 Wind speed variation with height model using
dropsonde data
 Extensively validated over land and water

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 10

 Track Model Verification
 Comparison of land fall rates by pressure
 Comparisons of modeled and observed translation
speeds, heading, occurrence rates and distance of
closest approach !
98
7
!9
88
!9
88
!9
90
TX Site Lat
Distance
and Lon
g
inland vs.
directio
n
!
99
! 99
!
0
ed on
!9 1 turn
91 08)
990 Step 3: !
!
" l (V
ry et
al, 20
icke o f site
p 4: ode 0 km
Ste field m in 25 V t, r}
Central Pressure

Storm Filling ! 984 d ith

Central pressure filling (Vickery,
2005) Win orm w RMW ,
970 98
2
6
B filling
!
!

985
982 if st {P c, B,
V=
f

97
! 69 ! 985
! 9 1
96
950 981
(mb)

! !
1
! 95
49 981!
! 9
3 !
94
930 !

!
94
5
928 !
924 !
! 966

tral
ssu
re
P re rval)
te
4 Cen our in
97 !
(6 h
! 936 ! 0 6
! 95 941 96 6
74 96 5
910 !
9 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
97
! ! ! !9
76 8 7
98 98 987 981 982 73 69
97
2 98
2
!
1
!
8
!
8
99 99 99 997

970
! ! ! 9 9 ! !
! ! ! ! !
! !

960
!

954
! !

948
!

890

08
974
!

949

946

6
973
!

10
0
998
! !

10
! !

993
! ! ! ! ! ! !

991
!

983
986
!

987
987
3
! ! s

95
! !
! ! term
! ror
1 10 100 1000 ! ! ! !
p 1: torm
Ste li ze S d RM
ia
Init ple B
an
W er

Return Period (years) Sam p ute I

Com
Step 2:
es
5 Squar and V t
o
new  I
Sample new value of
08)
Comp ute P c, B, RMW dhera (20
and Wa
Comp utefrom Vickery
B, RM W

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 11

Charley Validation Summary

120
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Modeled

y = 0.98x
R² = 0.92
100

80

60

Hurricane Charley - KPGD

40
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

150 Right
120 Left
20
90

60
0
30
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0
8/13/04 18:00 8/13/04 19:00 8/13/04 20:00 8/13/04 21:00 8/13/04 22:00 Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) - Observations
Time (UTC)

Hurricane Charley - KPGD ASOS Description Peak Gust Speed

(mph)
Mean Wind Speed (mph)

120
100
Obs Model
KFMY Fort Myers International Airport 85 81
80
KMCO Orlando International Airport 107 109
60
KSFB Orlando Sanford International Airport 94 92
40
KORL Orlando Executive International Airport 87 98
20
KMIA Miami International Airport 41 34
0 KMLB Melbourne Regional Airport 49 53
8/13/04 18:00 8/13/04 19:00 8/13/04 20:00 8/13/04 21:00 8/13/04 22:00
KPBI Palm Beach International Airport 41 37
KRSW Ft Myers Regional Airport 81 70
Time (UTC)
FCMP T0 FCMP Tower 0 54 59
FCMP T1 FCMP Tower 1 76 82
FCMP T2 FCMP Tower 2 49 46
FCMP T3 FCMP Tower 3 39 43
SAUF1 St Augustine C-MAN Platform 71 65

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

 Why Lower Wind Speeds?
 New model produces more intense landfalling
hurricanes than the old model but results in lower wind
speeds.
 Lower winds largely associated with a new statistical
model for the Holland B parameter, which controls the
wind-pressure relationship.
 Paper describing the statistical model for B was
published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology in
December 2008.

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 13

Holland B defines the width and

peakedness of the wind field
  60 B
 RMW 
Gradient Balance Wind Speed

50
B= 0.75
p(r )  pc  p  exp  
 r 
B= 1
B= 1.3
40 B= 1.5
(ms )
-1

1/ 2
30
 RMW B 
20  RMW B Bp exp[( r ) ] r 2 f 2  fr
VG  ( )   
10
 r  4  2
0  
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)
Bp
1020 VG max 
1010 e
1000
Pressure e (hPa)

990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 14

Holland B Pressure Fits Andrew -1992/08/23-0542,B=1.6,p=75mb,RMW=11km Andrew -1992/08/23-0550,B=1.7,p=79mb,RMW=13km
  1020 1020

1000 1000

Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)
980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150

Radius(km ) Radius(km )
Luis-1995/09/04-1700,B=1.4,p=71mb,RMW=42km Luis-1995/09/04-1704,B=1.5,p=71mb,RMW=38.5km
1020 1020

1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)
980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150

Radius(km ) Radius(km )
Floyd-1999/09/15-0518,B=1.15,p=80mb,RMW=66km Floyd-1999/09/15-0525,B=1.1,p=81mb,RMW=65km
1020 1020

1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)
980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150

Radius(km ) Radius(km )
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 15

Effect of Holland B on
Predicted Wind Speeds
Wilmington, NC
200
B from Vickery,  et al. (2000)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
150

100

50

0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 16
 Wind Speed Comparisons
ASCE 7-10 Equivalent ASCE 7-98 through 7-05
(V700/√1.6)
90(40)

100(45)
110(49)

90(40) 110(49)
120(54)

110(49)
120(54)

130(58) 130(58)

90(40) 140(63)
100(45) 120(54)
110(49)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 17

700 Year Return Period Winds

114(51)

120(54)
130(58)
108(48)
140(63)

114(51)

114(51) 140(63)

150(67)

150(67)
140(63) 130(58) 140(63)
120(54) 150(67)
110(49) 160(72)
160(72) 170(76)
170(76)

114(51) 180(80)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63) 180(80)
110(49)

120(54)
130(58)
Location Vmph (m/s)
140(63) Hawaii 129 (58) 150(67) 160(72)
150(67) Guam 196 (88) 170(76)
158(71) Virgin Islands 167 (75)
American Samoa 158 (71)
158(71) Puerto Rico

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 18

Wind speeds at selected locations
Location ASCE 7-05
Exposure C V700 / 1.6
Exposure C Exposure D
Bar Harbor, Maine 97 95 103
Boston, MA 106 103 112
Hyannis, MA 117 112 122
New Port, RI 117 109 119
Southampton, NY 120 110 119
Atlantic City, NJ 114 102 111
Wrightsville Beach, NC 132 119 129
Folly Beach, SC 131 115 125
Miami Beach 145 136 148
Clearwater, FL 128 115 125
Panama City, FL 129 107 116
Biloxi, MS 138 129 140
Galveston, TX 131 119 129
Port Aransas, TX 134 117 127
Hawaii 105 103 112
Guam 170 155 168

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Simulated vs. Historical

Maximum Wind Speeds Texas Louisiana
220 220
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

200 200
Audrey
Katrina

180 180
1900

160 160
Rita

Camille

140 140
Betsy
Carla
Audrey

120 120
1932
Celia

Carmen
Andrew

100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

MS/AL Florida
220 220
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

200 200
Donna
Frederic

180 180
1926

160 160
Labor Day

140 140
Andrew
Camille

Charley
1926

120 120
Katrina

100 100
Elena

80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 20

Peak Gust Wind Speeds
Anywhere in US vs. Return Period
250

Labor Day
Camille
Betsy (LA)
200

Carla
Hazel
Wind Speed (mph)

150

Andrew
Charley
ARA Modeled
100 Probabilistic
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
Dunion et al, (2003)
50
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

Reintroduction of Exposure D in
Hurricane- Prone Regions
 Research showed that the roughness of ocean does
not continue to increase with increasing wind speed”
and Exposure D is valid

Expanding the Realm of Possibility

 Exposure D

 Analysis of dropsonde data

100
indicate that at high wind speeds
the ocean roughness does not
10
continue to increase as
previously thought.
Height (m)

 Reduced drag possibly due to

0.1
surface bubbles and/or sea
0.01 spray.
0.001  Limits the aerodynamic
roughness length to a value
0.0001
0 10 20 30 40 50
comparable to that used to
WInd Speed (m/sec) define Exposure D.
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 23

Roughness Length vs. Wind

Speed
CAT  1 CAT 2 CAT  3 CAT  4 CAT  5
1
Aerodynamic Surface Roughness (m)

Exposure B

0.1

Exposure C Old Model (ASCE 7‐05)

0.01
Exposure D
New Model  (Large Hurricanes)

0.001 New Model  (Small  Hurricanes) 

Estimates from Dropsondes

0.0001
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Hourly Mean Wind Speed Over Water (m/sec)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 24

Windborne Debris Region
 ASCE 7-05 Standard
 V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast

 Exact Mapping (new 700 year map)

 120√1.6=152~150

 110 √1.6=139~140

 Implemented
 V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast

 Results in less area within WBD Region than in the

ASCE 7-05

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 25

ASCE 7-10 Windborne

Debris Region

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 26

Wind Map Summary
 New data and data analysis indicate that the ASCE 7-05
hurricane wind speeds were generally conservative
 Introduction of ultimate wind speed maps
 LRFD Wind Load Factor = 1.0

 ASD Wind Load Factor = 0.6

 Specific maps for each building category
 Exposure D for hurricane coastline
 New windborne debris region results in less area subject
to windborne debris design criteria

Expanding the Realm of Possibility