Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
in Democratic Countries
Author(s): Valerie Bunce
Source: American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 24, No. 3 (Aug., 1980), pp. 373-395
Published by: Midwest Political Science Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2110824
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ChangingLeadersand ChangingPolicies:
TheImpactofEliteSuccessionon Budgetary
inDemocratic
Priorities Countries*
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374 Valerie Bunce
Electionsand PolicyChange
Surprisingly enough (and thisis indeed rare in social science), politi-
cal scientistsare in substantialagreementon thisissue-they tend to con-
cur thatelectionsdo not disturbtheessentiallyincrementalpatternof pol-
icy changein democraticsystems.For instance,KennethDolbeare (1974,
p. 80), a sharpcriticof the Americansystem,considerselections"useful
diversionswhichcontributeto thedefenseof thingsas theyare." Similarly,
Nelson Polsbyand Aaron Wildavsky(1971, p. 209) stressthat"presiden-
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 375
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376 Valerie Bunce
Methods
In ordertobeginto testtheimpactofelitesuccession
on publicpolicy
in democraticpolities,I havecollectedbudgetaryexpenditure
and succes-
sion data forsevendemocracies(Austria,Britain,Canada, the Federal
Republicof Germany, Sweden,Japan,and theUnitedStates)from1950
to 1976.1This particular groupof politieswas chosenbecauseit incor-
poratesa widerangeofvariables, suchas partycompetition
and leftism
of
1 The difficulties
of procuringcomparable,reliable,annual time-series
budgetary
data meantthat: (1) I had to rely primarilyon ratherbroad categories,such as
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 377
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378 Valerie Bunce
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 379
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380 ValerieBunce
The Findings
Table 1 presents theresultsofthetestthatassessedtheimmediate im-
pactofsuccession on budgetary in thesevendemocratic
priorities nations.
Giventheclearpattern of budgetary following
fluctuations successionex-
hibitedin thistable,itis evidentthatleadershipturnoverdoes indeedlead
to immediate budgetary innovation.7Moreover,it is strikinghow much
(and how frequently) successionseemsto affectbudgetary outlays.In
everycountry (eventheFederalRepublicof Germany, wherethepattern
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TABLE 1
The ImmediateImpact of Successionon BudgetaryAllo cationsin
Total
Country Administrationa Expendituresb Healthc
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TABLE 1 (continued)
Total
Country Administrationa Expendituresb Healthc Ed
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TABLE 1 (continued)
Total
Country Administrationa Expendituresb Healthc E
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384 Valerie Bunce
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 385
TABLE 2
AverageBudgetaryPrioritiesby Administration,
in Seven Countries
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386 Valerie Bunce
TABLE 2 (continued)
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TABLE 3
The ImmediateImpact of Successionin Four Countries: Some Extr
Public
Country Succession Safety Housing Industry
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388 Valerie Bunce
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TABLE 4
The Impactof Succession: A NationalSummary
Average
Average Spreadbe- El
Average Leader tweenTop Party Tu
Competitiona Mandateb Two Partiesd Turn- ov
Country Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats overe Ra
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390 Valerie Bunce
Conclusions
Overthepasttenyears,politicalscientists
havebuilta strong
case for
"actordispensibility"-i.e.,
thatpublicpoliciesare madeby organizations
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 391
not by decision-makers
and past priorities, (Greenstein,1969, pp. 49-58).
As MartinHeislerand RobertKvavik (1974, p. 40) summarize:
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392 ValerieBunce
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 393
APPENDIX
Data Sources
Country Data Sources
Austria UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1976,
690; 1973,680; 1971, 676; 1966, 653; 1956,523.
Britain UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1976,
808; 1973, 680; 1971,696; 1968, 686; 1966, 631; 1961, 549.
Canada Canada yearbook(Ottawa:Ministerof Industry, Trade,and Commerce):
1976,764; 1975,789.
Historicalstatisticsof Canada, M. C. Urquhart,ed. (Toronto: MacMil-
lan), 1965,200, 202.
UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1970,
642; 1965, 604.
German Statistiches jahrbuchfur die bundesrepublik Deutschland(Bonn: Weis-
Federal baden Verlag): 1977,483; 1976,403; 1973,410; 1968,388; 1965, 342-
Republic 344.
Japan Japan statisticalyearbook(Tokyo: Bureau of GovernmentStatistics):
1972,450; 1968,469; 1963,423.
UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1976,
772.
Sweden UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1976,
805; 1973,697; 1966,656; 1961,544.
United UnitedNationsstatistical yearbook(New York: UnitedNations): 1976,
States 764; 1971,696; 1966,646; 1959,584.
ElectoralStatistics
M. C. Urquhart,ed. Historicalstatisticsof Canada (Toronto: MacMil-
lan), 1965, 200-202.
Statistiches
jahrbuc/h fuirdie bundesrepublik
Deutschland(Bonn: Weis-
baden Verlag): 1977, 483; 1976,403; 1973,410; 1968, 388; 1965, 342-
344.
Japanistatisticalyearbook(Tokyo: Bureau of GovernmentStatistics):
1972,450; 1968,469; 1963,423.
Robin Bidwell,ed. Bidwell'sguideto government ministers(Cambridge,
England: Cass), 1973, 1-54.
F. W. W. Craig,ed. Britishparliamentary electionstatistics(Chichester:
PoliticalReferencePublications),1971, 14-20.
Dolf Stemberger and GerhardVogel,eds. Die wahl der parlamenteund
andere staatsorgane:Ein handbuch(Berlin: De Gruyer), 1969, 1128-
1349.
Japanalmanac (Tokyo: Marnichi),1976,63.
Thomas Mackie and RichardRose. Electiondata: General electionsin
Westernnationsduring1973. EuropeanJournalof PoliticalResearch,2
(September1974): 293-298.
and . Electiondata: Generalelectionsin Westernnations
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394 ValerieBunce
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CHANGING LEADERS AND CHANGING POLICIES 395
Manuscriptsubmitted9 Januaty1979
Final manuscriptreceived29 October 1979
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