A Field Test Two Step

A FIELD TEST OF A MODIFIED
"TWO-STEP FLOW OF
COMMUNICATION" MODEL*
BY VERLING C. TROLDAHL
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This paper reports the findings of a carefully prepared field experiment
conducted in the Boston area to test the "two-step flow of communication"
hypothesis. The results of the experiment, although far from definitive, seem
to call for a reappraisal of the hypothesis.
Verling C. Troldahl is Associate Professor of Communication at Michigan
State University.
BOUT TWENTY YEARS have passed since the Lazarsfeld

group of sociologists introduced the hypothesis of a "two-
step flow of communication."1 Despite the growing accumu-
lation of relevant research stimulated by it, not enough has
been done to add specification to the original statement of the hy-
pothesis, taking into account these more recent findings.2
Recently, the author tried to develop an elaboration of the two-
step-flow hypothesis in an attempt to assimilate findings that the orig-
inal hypothesis did not seem to explain in a specific manner. In the
fall of 1962, a field experiment was conducted in suburban Boston to
test some of the assertions implied by the new model. The main
elements in the conceptual model and findings of the field experiment
are reported here.3
• The research reported in this article was supported by the Cooperative Exten-
sion Service, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Mass.
1 Paul F. Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson, and Hazel Gaudet, The People's Choice,
2nd ed., New York, Columbia University Press, 1948. The first edition of this book
was published in 1944.
2 Prior to his untimely death, Paul J. Deutschmann reported his early attempts
at building a computer simulation model of the flow of communication within
a social system. Deutschmann's work had not yet been reported when the present
writer began the work described in this paper. Deutschmann's last paper on the
simulation model was "A Model for Machine Simulation of Information and Atti-
tude Flow," San Jose\ Costa Rica, Programa Interamericano de Informacidn Popu-
lar, Oct. 31, 1962, mimeographed.
s A more detailed description of the model and the findings of the field experi-
ment are reported in Verling C. Troldahl, "Mediated Communication and Personal
Influence: A Field Experiment," Minneapolis, University of Minnesota, April, 1963,
Ph.D. dissertation.
610 VERLING C. TROLDAHL
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
The original statement of the two-step-flow hypothesis was presented
as a verbal description of communication flow in social systems rather
than as a formal set of assertions. In its most rudimentary form, it as-
serted that "ideas often flow from radio and print to the opinion lead-
ers and from them to the less active sections of the population."4 Many
additional assertions made by the researchers in explaining this state-
ment have also come to be considered part of the hypothesis. As the
Lazarsfeld group conducted additional studies, they clarified some of
their original assertions but never formalized the set of assertions.5
The present writer was first stimulated to develop a new model
of communication flow by some findings of Deutschmann and Daniel-
son.6 In summarizing the findings of six studies concerned with the
diffusion of information about major news events, these researchers
concluded: ". . . we would urge that the Katz-Lazarsfeld two-stage
flow hypothesis, as a description of the initial information process,
be applied to mass communication with caution and qualification."
They based this conclusion on their finding that "Initial mass media
information on important events goes directly to people on the
whole and is not relayed to any great extent." Very similar findings
were obtained in two more recent studies of political-campaign com-
munication conducted by Deutschmann.7
If the two-step-flow hypothesis is concerned with media effects on in-
formation level as well as effects on attitudes and behavior, the findings
of the Deutschmann-Danielson studies seem to contradict what the
hypothesis asserts. Those studies were concerned with how persons
first become aware of major news events, which implies minimum
comprehension of an event or idea.
Findings of the rural sociologists also suggest that the two-step-flow
hypothesis may not adequately describe the flow of learning. Rogers
cites one study in which two-thirds of the respondents attributed
* Larzarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet, op. cit., p. 151.
»For discussions of the two-step flow hypothesis by members of the Lazarsfeld
group, see Paul Lazarsfeld and Herbert Menzel, "Mass Media and Personal Influ-
ence," in Wilbur Schramm, ed., The Science of Human Communication, New York,
Basic Books, 1963, pp. 94-115; Joseph T. Klapper, The Effects of Mass Communica-
tion, Glencoe, 111., Free Press, i960; and Elihu Katz, "The Two-step Flow of Com-
munication: An Up-to-date Report on an Hypothesis," Public Opinion Quarterly,
Vol. at, 1957, pp- 61-78.
6 Paul J. Deutschmann and Wayne A. Danielson, "Diffusion of Knowledge of the
Major News Story," Journalism Quarterly, Vol. 37, i960, pp. 345-355.
' Paul J. Deutschmann and Frank A. Pinner, "A Field Investigation of the Two-
stage Flow of Communication," paper read at the annual meeting of the Association
for Education in Journalism at Pennsylvania State University, August i960, and Paul
J. Deutschmann, "Viewing, Conversation, and Voting Intention," in Sidney Kraus,
ed., The Great Debates, Bloomington, Ind., Indiana University Press, 1962.
A FIELD TEST OF A COMMUNICATION MODEL 611
their "awareness" to the mass media, as opposed to face-to-face com-
munication.8 About half of them credited media with increasing their
comprehension of the topic. On the other hand, face-to-face communi-
cation was credited more often than media as the primary influence on
their attitudes and behavior regarding the innovation.
All these findings suggest that, at least for learning effects, there is
a one-step flow of communication, direct from the mass media to
members of the social system. A review of the Lazarsfeld-group research
revealed no findings that contradict this conclusion. Most of their data
pertaining to learning factors involved general media habits rather
than the learning of particular pieces of information.
The two-step-flow hypothesis seems more adequate as a description
of the flow of media influence on beliefs and behavior. The Decatur
study yielded considerable evidence that a two-step flow of influence
on beliefs and behavior exists.9
Certain findings that have not received much attention may provide
a cue to the process by which mass media influence people's attitudes
and behavior. If these findings are taken into account, the findings
already cited seem to be compatible. In the Deutschmann studies al-
ready mentioned, media exposure was found to induce discussion. Dis-
cussion is a prerequisite, of course, for a second-step flow of communi-
cation. Most of the writings about the two-step-flow hypothesis seem
to suggest that opinion leaders initiate the second-step flow. However,
no evidence to that effect was presented in existing research. Because
Deutschmann did not study the behavior of opinion leaders and fol-
lowers separately, it is not clear which were induced to initiate the
second-step flow. Merton, in his study of local and cosmopolitan in-
fluentials, suggested that the "influentials" may initiate the second-
step flow of communication. He believed that influentials used news
as a "commodity for exchange, to be traded for further increments of
prestige."10
The notion that opinion leaders initiate the second-step flow seems
inconsistent with the fact that they are defined as persons who are
asked for advice. Also, in the Elmira study, 52 per cent of the opinion
leaders reported seeking advice; only 43 per cent of the followers did.11
8 Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, New York, Free Press of Glencoe,
1962, pp. 98-102. See also Herbert F. Lionberger, Adoption of New Ideas and Prac-
tices, Ames, Iowa, Iowa State University Press, i960, pp. 25-31 and 42-51.
9 Elihu Katz and Paul F. Lazarsfeld, Personal Influence: The Part Played by
People in the Flow of Mass Communication, Glencoe, III. Free Press, 1955.
10 Robert K. Merton, Social Theory and Social Structure, rev. ed., Glencoe, 111.,
Free Press, 1957^.391.
11 Bernard Berelson, Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee, Voting: A Study
of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign, Chicago, University of Chicago
Press, 1954, p. n o .
Similarly, in the Decatur study, more public affairs leaders than fol-
lowers reported personal influence as a reason for their opinion
change.12 When an opinion leader seeks advice, he is performing his
role as a follower of some higher-level opinion leader. This research
evidence suggests that the second-step flow of communication may very
well be initiated by followers rather than by opinion leaders.
Given this research evidence, "balance" theory offers some guide-
lines for building a conceptual model of the communication process.13
A basic notion of balance theory is that people are motivated to
keep an apparent consistency among the facts and beliefs they pos-
sess. If a person is exposed to new observations or beliefs that he per-
ceives to be inconsistent with his present beliefs, he is thrown into
an "imbalance" condition. The psychological stress induced by this
imbalanced state motivates him to do something that will bring his
cognitive structure back into balance. Applied to the two-step flow
of communication, balance theory suggests that a person exposed to
mass media content that is inconsistent with his present attitudes or
behavioral patterns will experience imbalance. One means of reducing
this imbalance is to seek advice from his opinion leader. His opinion
leader can provide him with additional cognitions that bring him
back into a balanced state, either by changing his present predisposi-
tions or by rejecting the content obtained from the mass media expo-
sure. This viewpoint implies, of course, that the second-step flow of
communication will be initiated only by followers whose present
predispositions are in conflict with media messages to which they ex-
pose themselves directly.
One more element was incorporated into the conceptual model. In
the Decatur study, followers were characterized as seeking "persons
like themselves" for advice. This implies a certain intimacy between
opinion leader and follower. Opinion leaders, on the other hand,
tended to seek advice from persons more knowledgeable than them-
selves.14 This fits with findings by rural sociologists which indicate
that opinion leaders tend to seek "technically accurate information
sources."15 Barcus has discussed these types of influential as "profes-
sional intermediaries."16 This term refers to any institutionalized
source of advice, whether the person has been formally appointed to
12 Katz and Lazarsfeld, op. cit., p. 318.
is For an excellent general explanation of the several "balance" theories developed
by psychologists and sociologists, see Charles E. Osgood, "Cognitive Dynamics in the
Conduct of Human Affairs," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 24, i960, pp. 341-365.
1* Katz and Lazarsfeld, op. cit., pp. 279-283.
15 Rogers, op. cit., pp. 238-289.
i« Francis E. Barcus, The Role of Agricultural Extension in the Suburban Com-
munity, Boston University, Boston, Mass., Communications Research Center, Report
No. 6, August 1962, pp. 80-83.
that role or not. Examples include county agricultural agents, scien-
tists, and commercial salesmen. Such persons are the types of sources
sought out by the mass media for news and information. This suggests
that opinion leaders may often seek advice from the very persons who
provide information to the mass media. Finally, some change effects
directly attributable to mass media exposure are found. It would
seem that these effects would be found primarily among opinion lead-
ers: they would be expected to be more self-sufficient than followers.
One more qualification is needed. Most studies of social influence
have been concerned with the potency of mass media in changing
beliefs and behavior. However, because followers are seen as seeking
out opinion leaders from within their membership groups, and con-
siderable social research has documented the homogeneity of attitudes
and behavior within groups,17 advice seeking by followers should lead
to reinforcement of current predispositions unless their opinion lead-
ers (1) have already been exposed to the same information, (2)
have already sought out their own opinion leaders, and (3) have
modified their own attitudes or behavioral patterns. This implies that
two cycles of a two-step flow of communication are necessary before
changes in beliefs or behavior would be expected. Therefore, the con-
ceptual model presented here could best be termed a "two-cycleflowof
communication" model. The rudiments of the model are illustrated
graphically in the chart on page 614.
TESTABLE ASSERTIONS DERIVED FROM THE MODEL

In brief, the conceptual model can be described as hypothesizing a
one-step flow of information and a two-step flow of influence on beliefs,
attitudes, and behavior. However, the two-step flow is expected to
operate only when a person is exposed to mass media content that
is inconsistent with his present predispositions. In such cases, that per-
son seeks his opinion leader. Opinion leaders are expected to seek out
professional intermediaries for advice more often than followers will.
Reinforcement effects are expected unless the opinion leader sought
out by a follower has already completed an influence cycle that led to
changes in his own predispositions.
A large number of testable assertions can be derived from this con-
ceptualization. Several were derived by the author and subjected to
empirical test in a field experiment conducted during the fall of
1962. Findings pertaining to some of the more basic assertions will be
reported here.18 They are:
IT For a summary of this research, see Katz and Lazarsfeld, op. cit., pp. 48-65.
is Additional assertions were derived and tested in the field experiment. For a
complete report of the study, see Troldahl, op. cit.
1. Among opinion leaders and followers, exposure to mediated communica-
tion alone will induce awareness of message content.
2. Among opinion leaders, exposure to mediated communication alone
will induce belief change. (This is not expected for followers.)
3. Followers whose present beliefs are inconsistent with observations and
beliefs in a message are induced by exposure to mediated communication to
ask for advice on the message topic. (This also holds for opinion leaders
when they are performing in their role as followers.)
4. Opinion leaders who seek advice talk to "professional intermediaries"
more frequently than followers do.
5. Opinion leaders seek advice for intimates less often than followers.
6. Opinion leaders and followers who ask for advice about the message
topic after being exposed to mediated communication will exhibit more be-
lief change than persons who do not ask for advice.
CYCLES OF INFLUENCE
The Firtt Cycle of Influence
PROFESSIONAL awareness, comprehension V MEDIATED

INTERMEDIARIES advice-seeking COMMUNICATION
c
a 0
w m
a P
r r
e e
n h
e e
8 n
8 s
i
0
>
' n
OPINION
LEADERS
The Second Cycle of Influence |

MEDIATED awareness, comprehension
COMMUNICATION FOLLOWERS
OPINION ^ advice-seeking /
LEADERS ^ — - ~ — —*
THE RESEARCH DESIGN
After the model had been developed, a research grant from the
University of Massachusetts Cooperative Extension Service made it pos-
sible to test some of the assertions derived from it. As part of the
agreement, the extension service offered this writer an opportunity to
use a monthly agricultural newspaper (the Middlesex County Bulle-
tin) for experimental purposes. This publication was subscribed to by
about 2,000 residents of the county, about 400 of whom resided in the
suburban fringe of Boston. Control over this publication made it
possible to write messages that fulfilled certain criteria, to "inject"
these messages into a relatively complex social system, and then to
"trace" the flow of those messages by questioning subscribers about
the specific elements included in the messages.
This experimental control over content flowing in a "natural" set-
ting permitted a study of the two-step-flow process from a somewhat
different vantage point than in earlier studies. Content flow is traced
from its initiation by the media rather than traced backward from the
final face-to-face communication concerning it. It was felt that findings
obtained in this way would provide new types of evidence concerning
the two-step flow that would complement earlier findings, thus provid-
ing a more comprehensive description of the process. One possible dis-
advantage of this approach is that respondents may not obtain enough
exposure to the communication campaign. Also, unless a very large
sample of persons is studied, there may be few "changers" to study
as a result of the campaign.
The study was restricted to suburban Bulletin subscribers so that
they could be interviewed personally. The topic selected for the experi-
mental messages was the care of lawns, shrubs, flowers, and other
plants. Six messages were printed on two experimental pages. Each
message presented some recommendation relevant to ornamental hor-
ticulture and some reasons why the recommendation should be fol-
lowed. The experimental pages became pages 3 and 4 of the October
1962 issue of the Bulletin.
A random sample of 318 Bulletin subscribers living in a nineteen-
town suburban area of Middlesex County was drawn for the field ex-
periment. To control for extraneous influences on the information
level and beliefs of subscribers, one-third of the sample was assigned
randomly to a control group.19
About five weeks before the experimental issue of the Bulletin was
is Actually, the sample was randomly assigned to three groups. To test some
hypotheses concerning dogmatism (see Milton Rokeach, The Open and Closed Mind,
New York, Basic Books, i960), two experimental groups were needed. For the
hypotheses discussed here, the two experimental groups were considered one.
mailed, subscribers were interviewed in their homes to ascertain their
beliefs on the six message topics before the messages were sent. The
two self-designation opinion-leadership questions used in the Decatur
study were also asked.20 About October 1, 1962, the experimental pages
were included in the Bulletin issues sent to the experimental group in
the sample, but were not included in the issues sent to the control
group. About a week after the experimental issue had been mailed,
the same sample of respondents was interviewed again. They were
again administered the belief items. In addition, numerous questions
were asked about face-to-face communication and Bulletin readership.
Considerable attrition in the sample was found. Although inter-
viewers made four attempt to interview each respondent, before and
after interviews were completed with only 55 per cent of the respond-
ents.21 However, the experimental results should be unbiased because
the nonresponse rate was almost identical for experimental and con-
trol groups. Checks also showed that these groups did not differ sub-
stantially on sex, age, education, and occupational composition.
Within each subscriber household, the person in whose name the
subscription was listed was interviewed. Respondents were mainly men,
were older than average, had more education than average, and
tended to be in white-collar occupations. Though suburbanites, most
of them had some connection with agriculture or farming.
RESEARCH FINDINGS
Direct effects of mediated communication. Before the effects of ex-
posure to the experimental issue were tested, a check determined that
the percentage of persons who reported reading "anything" in the ex-
perimental issue of the Bulletin differed somewhat between the ex-
perimental and control groups. Therefore, to minimize random error,
all persons who reported that they had not seen the experimental
issue were excluded from the analysis. In effect, this amounts to hold-
ing media exposure constant while studying message effects.
The conceptual model characterizes information flow as a one-step
flow. Therefore, botfi opinion leaders and followers should have at-
2
<> The two items used in the Decatur study were adapted for this experiment.
One was "Has anyone you know asked you for your advice or opinion recently
about the care of lawns, shrubs, flowers, or other plants?" The second item was
"Compared with most people you know . . . would you guess you're more likely . . .
or less likely . . . to be asked to give opinions or advice about lawns, shrubs, flowers,
or other plants?" Persons answering "yes" and "more likely" were classified as
"opinion leaders." These questions were asked in thefirstwave of interviewing.
21 Heavy attrition of a sample usually occurs in before-after studies because a per-
lon muit be interviewed in both phases of interviewing to be included in the analy-
sis. In this study, 71 per cent of the sample were interviewed in the first wave,
and 77 per cent of those persons were interviewed in the second wave. Part of the
attrition was also due to weaknesses in the publication's mailing list.
tended to the experimental messages, i.e. have become aware of
the message topics, directly from media exposure. To measure this
awareness, all respondents who reported reading anything in the exper-
imental issue were asked: "Do you remember anything you read in it
concerning lawns, shrubs, flowers, or other plants?" Because there
were a few articles elsewhere in the Bulletin that covered horticultural
topics, this question had to be asked of control-group members, too,
even though they did not receive the experimental messages in their
Bulletin. The proportion of control-group members who recalled a
horticultural topic in answer to this question indicates the.effect of
these extraneous articles. By subtracting this percentage from the per-
centage of experimental-group members who recalled a horticultural
topic, it is possible to determine the percentage of experimental-group
members influenced to recall horticultural topics by the experimental
messages themselves. The responses are reported in Table i.
TABLE 1
AWARENESS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL TOPICS INDUCED
BY MEDIA EXPOSURE, BY OPINION LEADERS AND
FOLLOWERS WHO REPORTED READING ISSUE
Recalled One of
Experimental Topics
Per Cent (N)

Opinion leaders:
Experimental group 32 (44)
Control group 14 (28)
Xs = 1.95, df = 1, p > .05
Opinion followers:
Experimental group 39 (44)
Control group 6 (18)
x1 = 5.22, df = l,p< .05
NOTE: Control-group members did not receive the ex-
perimental measures, but represent a measure of how much
a few horticultural articles elsewhere in the publication in-
fluenced both groups in their answers to the "awareness"
question. The net effect of the experimental messages is
obtained by subtracting the control-group percentage from
the experimental-group percentage.
Among opinion leaders, exposure to mediated communication did

not produce a statistically significant awareness effect. Among fol-
lowers, the difference in awareness percentages for the experimental
and control groups was larger and was statistically significant. There-
fore, assertion l was confirmed for followers but not for opinion lead-
ers. Among followers, exposure to mediated communication induced
awareness of message content.
The conceptual model predicts belief change primarily when some-
one exposed to mediated communication seeks out an opinion leader
who has already been influenced to change, usually by a higher-
level opinion leader. However, assertion 2 predicts belief change among
opinion leaders directly from exposure to mediated communication,
because the very definition of opinion leadership implies some self-
sufficiency. Followers, on the other hand, were not expected to change
their beliefs solely on the basis of media exposure.
T o measure belief change, a single question was developed for
each experimental article. In asking respondents what they con-
sidered the best practice in a given horticultural problem, three or
more alternatives were suggested. For example: "When you cut your
grass, about how high should you leave i t . . . about an inch . . . an inch
and a half . . . two inches . . . or doesn't it make any difference?"
Evidence had been provided in the article that "Lawns that are cut
about two inches high have from 20 to 100 times fewer weeds in them
than lawns cut short." T h e data pertaining to belief change are re-
ported in Table 2.
TABLE 2
CHANGES IN HORTICULTURAL BELIEFS INDUCED BY EXPOSURE TO MEDIATED
COMMUNICATION, BY OPINION LEADERS AND FOLLOWERS
WHO REPORTED READING THE ISSUE
(in per cent)
Net Effect within Group for Each Article'
1 2 3 4 5 6 (N)
Opinion leaders:
Experimental group 25 2 5 11 4 16 (44)
Control group 7 14 11 -4 7 4 (28)
Media effect + 18 -12 -6 + 15 -3 + 12

Opinion followers:
Experimental group 23 18 2 7 20 9 (44)
Control group -5 -6 -17 6 5 17 (18)
Media effect +28 +24 + 19 +1 + 15 -8
* Recommendations made in the six articles were as follows: (1) Cut lawns 2
inches high. (2) Cut lawns into late fall. (3) Clean stalks from garden in fall. (4) Rake
leaves from lawn in fall. (5) Mulch perennials after hard freeze. (6) Fall is the best
time to spray weeds.
Among opinion leaders, media exposure did not induce significant

belief change for any of the six recommendations. Only for the recom-
mendation contained in the feature article of the experimental pages
did the amount of change closely approach statistical significance
(z =1.45, p — .07).22 Therefore, assertion 2 was not confirmed.
Contrary to expectations, media exposure did induce belief change
among followers for the featured experimental article (z = 1.73, p =
.042). In fact, the net media effect on the second recommendation in
Table 2 was almost significant (z = 1.57, p — .061). Looking at the
net media effect indices for all six articles, it would appear that ex-
posure to mediated communication may have induced some belief
change in followers for the other beliefs as well. Five of the six indices
are positive.
A check of the prior beliefs of opinion leaders and followers indi-
cates very similar proportions of each group subscribing to the recom-
mendations and a sufficient percentage having room to change to the
recommended beliefs. Therefore, these findings are not due to any
ceiling effect. They suggest that assertion 2 should perhaps be al-
tered to state that media exposure does induce belief change among
followers.
Initiation of the second-step flow. Balance theory predicts that fol-
lowers will initiate the second-step flow of communication (by asking
for advice) if they expose themselves to media content inconsistent
with their present beliefs. When prior predispositions are taken into
account, the sizes of subgroups were so small as to make statistical sig-
nificance extremely difficult to achieve. The data are presented here
anyway for exploratory purposes.
A significant belief change was found for only one of the experi-
mental articles, and in that case only among followers. Therefore,
respondents were classified according to their prior belief on the topic
of that article. The percentage of followers who reported asking for
any kind of advice on lawn care during the week or so prior to in-
terviewing was as follows for each subgroup:
Asked for Advice
Message No Message
Received Received
Message contrary to prior belief 5 0
(persons not using "new" practice) - = 17% - = 0%
29 10
Message consistent with prior belief 2 1
(persons already using "new" practice) - = 13% - = 12%
15 8
22 The test used is explained in Carl I. Hovland, Arthur A. Lumsdaine, and Fred D.
Scheffield, Experiments on Mass Communication: Vol. Ill, Studies in Social Psychol-
ogy in World War II, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1949, pp. 303-305.
The frequencies and sample sizes for each condition are presented to
indicate the instability of these estimates. Despite the small number of
followers in each group, the pattern of responses was exactly as pre-
dicted by the balance theory hypothesis. Among persons whose prior
beliefs were contrary to the belief in the experimental message, per-
sons who received the experimental message were more likely to seek
advice than persons who did not get the message.23 Among persons
with prior beliefs consistent with the message, persons who got the
message did not seek advice any more frequently than persons who
did not get the message. These exploratory findings on the initiating
of the second-step flow seem promising enough to warrant further
research in a similar framework.
Only 18 respondents reported that they had asked for advice about
lawn care during the week after they received the experimental mes-
sages. Among opinion leaders, 9 of the 10 reported seeking it from
someone who had special training or experience in ornamental horti-
culture. Among followers, 7 of the 8 who reported seeking advice also
sought it fom someone with special skills in horticulture. In the area
of lawn care, then, almost all advice seeking seemed to involve profes-
sional intermediaries. Opinion leaders and followers did not differ
either on how intimately they knew the person from whom they
sought advice. In about half the cases, respondents reported knowing
the persons they sought out either casually or not at all. Therefore,
evidence pertaining to assertions 4 and 5 tended to disconfirm the
hypotheses.
Effect of the second-step-flow. As shown in the preceding section,
some discussion of the experimental topics occurred during the week
between media exposure and the second wave of interviewing. T o
maximize the possibility of a second-step flow, the experimental pages
were included in issues of the Bulletin sent to every subscriber in
Middlesex County except persons in the control group. In other words,
about 1,900 households received the experimental messages, over 300
of them in the suburbs studied, the remainder in adjacent towns.
Evidence pertaining to a second-step-flow effect on belief change is
contained in Table 3. Again, the only belief under study is the one
that asserted that lawns should be cut to a height of 2 inches. Asser-
tion 6 states that, among opinion leaders and followers, persons who
ask for advice will exhibit more belief change than persons who do
2
3 If a respondent did not subscribe to any belief prior to publication of the con-
tent, his beliefs were considered contrary to the message because the message sug-
gested that he should have a positive belief. Five experimental-group members
and one control-group member fit this description. None had asked for advice. Thus,
discarding them would have accentuated the predicted difference for the contrary
group.
TABLE 3
EFFECT OF FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION ON THE CHANGE OF BELIEFS, BY
OPINION LEADERS AND FOLLOWERS: EXPERIMENTAL GROUP ONLY
(in per cent)
Did Talked No Asked

Not about Advice for
Talk Topic Seeking Advice
Opinion leaders (N = 26) (N = 18) (N = 38) (iV = 6)
Positive belief change 27 28 27 33
No change 69 72 70 67
Negative belief change 4 — 3 0
100 100 100 100

Net change within group +23 +28 +24 +33
Effect of face-to-face
communication +5 +9
Followers (N = 32) (N = 12) (iV = 37) (N = 7)
Positive belief change 34 25 33 29
No change 54 75 56 71
Negative belief change 12 — 11 —
Net change within group +22 +25 +22 +29
Effect of face-to-face
communication +3 +7
not. Table 3 presents data for persons who reported talking about, as
well as for persons who asked for advice on, the general topic of lawn
care. All persons who asked for advice are included in the "talked
about" group. The net change within group for persons who did not
talk or for persons who did not seek advice is an index of the direct
effects of mediated communication. The net change within group for
persons who did talk about or ask for advice on lawn care is an index
of the combined effects of mediated and face-to-face communication.
Subtracting the first percentage from the second gives an index of the
effects of face-to-face communication.
None of the indices of face-to-face communication effects is high
enough to be statistically significant, though all the indices are posi-
tive. This suggests that there was a trace of personal influence, but not
enough to be detected reliably by the size and design of this study.
CONCLUSIONS
The purpose of this study was to test some assertions derived from a
revised model of the two-stepflowof communication hypothesis. A field
experiment was conducted by "injecting" experimental messages into
a "natural" social system. The effects of these messages were traced
by conducting personal interviews with members of an experimental
and a control group both before and after the messages entered the so-
cial system.
Both opinion leaders and followers who were exposed to the mes-
sages were expected to become aware of the topics in the messages
without the aid of face-to-face communication. A significant awareness
effect was found for followers, but not for opinion leaders. However,
the observed effect for opinion leaders was almost significant in the
direction predicted, so this hypothesis should perhaps be tested again
with more precise data before being rejected.
Media exposure was expected to induce belief change among opin-
ion leaders, but not among followers. None of the six experimental
messages used in this study induced a significant belief change among
opinion leaders and only one message did so among followers. In es-
sence, then, the messages had no reliably detected effect on belief
change.
The featured message on the experimental pages did induce a sig-
nificant belief change among followers, and the belief change was al-
most significant for opinion leaders. No direct media influence was pre-
dicted for followers. For the featured message, 28 per cent of the
followers changed their beliefs, whereas only 18 per cent of the opinion
leaders changed theirs. How might this contradiction of prior research
be explained? T o some degree the contradiction is only apparent. In
the Decatur study, for example, more followers named face-to-face
contacts than mass media as the main influence on them. However,
the mass media were named fairly often too. For fashion influence, for
example, 52 per cent of the followers named face-to-face influences as
most decisive, 32 per cent named mass media influences.24 In other
words, mediated communication may have influenced some followers
in this study, while others were influenced by face-to-face communica-
tion. Also, the particular belief involved here may not have been a
normative one on which followers would have to get opinion leader
"legitimization" before changing.
T h e new model predicted that followers who were exposed to
media messages that were inconsistent with their predispositions
would initiate the second-step flow of communication. This assertion
was derived from balance theory. Exploratory data provided by the ex-
periment gave tentative support for the hypothesis. On the other
hand, the data did not support the hypotheses that opinion leaders
seek advice from professional intermediaries more often than followers
do, or that they seek advice from persons they know intimately less
often than followers do. Most respondents sought out expert sources
2* Katz and Lazarsfeld, op. cit., p. 318. Education groups combined.

instead. This may have been due to the relatively narrow, technical
type of belief being studied, of course.
Finally, the hypotheses that both opinion leaders and followers who
had sought advice would be induced to change their beliefs as a result
of this face-to-face communication were not confirmed. Only a small
trace of belief change attributable to a second-step flow of communi-
cation was found in this experment. Since the communication medium
under study was a fairly expert one, it may have lessened the need
for personal reinforcement in belief change.
The findings of this field experiment did not generally conform to
predictions derived from the two-cycle-flow model developed out of
earlier findings by Katz and Lazarsfeld, Deutschmann and Danielson,
and the rural sociologists. Findings from a single study are insufficient
evidence, however, on which to reject a model based on considerable
research. The present study had limitations that should be overcome
in future tests of the model. A specialized county agricultural news-
paper was used instead of a general-audience medium, and a fairly
small-scale communication campaign was used. Also, the beliefs
studied were narrowly circumscribed beliefs about lawn care. If the be-
liefs being studied had been more general ones, or were general atti-
tudes or values, the influence of face-to-face communication might have
been stronger.

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A FIELD TEST OF A MODIFIED

BOUT TWENTY YEARS have passed since the Lazarsfeld

TESTABLE ASSERTIONS DERIVED FROM THE MODEL

The Firtt Cycle of Influence

PROFESSIONAL awareness, comprehension V MEDIATED

The Second Cycle of Influence |

Per Cent (N)

Among opinion leaders, exposure to mediated communication did

Net Effect within Group for Each Article'

Media effect + 18 -12 -6 + 15 -3 + 12

Among opinion leaders, media exposure did not induce significant

Asked for Advice

Did Talked No Asked

100 100 100 100

2* Katz and Lazarsfeld, op. cit., p. 318. Education groups combined.

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