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The climate of the future: clues from
three million years ago
In the eighteenth century, James Hutton came up with a theory that
revolutionized the science of geology, ‘The present is a key to the past’. But
could the past also be a guide to our future? The world three million years
ago was warmer than present. What might it tell us about global climate
change in the near future?
2
1
50N 50N 50N Fig. 10. Rainfall modelled for
50N -0.5
Western Europe three million
-1 years before present. The left
-2 side is for winter rainfall and the
right side for summer. Changes
-4
in rainfall are given relative to
30W 0E 30N 30N 30W 0E 30N modern. Britain had a generally
30N 30E 30E
wetter climate at that time.
temperatures more closely match those produced potential to dramatically change our appreciation of
using alkenone estimates than those derived from the the mid-Pliocene world, what made it warm and
planktonic foraminifera. what significance it has for our future.
What might the mid-Pliocene tell us about Suggestions for further reading
the future?
Big, G.R. 1996. The Oceans and Climate. Cambridge
Studying warm climates of the past and identifying University Press, Cambridge.
model/data inconsistencies provides a tough test for Dowsett, H.J., Barron, J.A., Poore, R.Z., Thompson,
the primary tool currently used to study future R.S., Cronin, T.M., Ishman, S.E. & Willard, D.A.
climate change, namely global climate models. Our 1999. Middle Pliocene Palaeoenvironmental
results suggest that mid-Pliocene warming was Reconstruction: PRISM2. U.S. Geological Survey
caused by more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Open File Report, 99-535. (available at: http://
combined with climate feedbacks associated with pubs.usgs.giv/openfile/of99-535/)
smaller ice-sheets. Since the pattern of sea Haug, G.H. & Tiedemann, R. 1998. Effect of the
temperature change reconstructed from alkenones, Isthmus of Panama on Atlantic Ocean
and predicted by our climate model, is not consistent thermohaline circulation. Nature, v.393, pp.673–
with that produced through changes in ocean 676.
circulation/ocean heat transport, we also conclude Haywood, A.M., Valdes, P.J., Sellwood, B.W., Kaplan,
that there was no major change in thermohaline J.O. & Dowsett, H.J. 2001. Modelling Middle
circulation at that time. This gives us more Pliocene warm climates of the USA. Palaeontologia
confidence in the stability of modern ocean Electronica, v.4, art.5. (available at: http://palaeo-
circulation in the face of global warming, and electronica.org/2001_1/climate/issue1_01.htm)
suggests that the scenario of climatic catastrophe Haywood, A.M. & Valdes, P.J. 2004. Modelling
pictured in the film The Day After Tomorrow is, middle Pliocene warmth: contribution of
fortunately for us, an unlikely one. atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Earth and
The other lesson to learn from the mid-Pliocene is Planetary Science Letters, v.218, pp.363–377.
that increased carbon dioxide levels in the Zachos, J.C., M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas & K.
atmosphere can have a dramatic effect on global Billups. 2001. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations
temperatures and ice-volumes. Indeed, the analogue in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science, v.292,
of the Pliocene suggests that if carbon dioxide pp.686–693.
concentrations remain at their current levels, or
increase further, then we can expect to see significant
reductions in global ice volume and higher sea levels. Web links
Considering the proportion of the world’s population Climate change, the global environment and fossils:
who live adjacent to the coast this is a serious threat. British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.
Some island nations might disappear.
ac.uk
The concept of studying the past as a guide to our
Bristol University ‘Bridge Group’: http://www.
future is relatively new. Therefore, we should
ggy.bris.ac.uk/research/bridge
continue to question whether it is possible that an as-
Palaeontologica electronica: http://palaeo-electronica.
yet unknown climate feedback or forcing has the
org