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Global Research Limited

WEEKLY
REPORTS

Where Market Can Move


Next Week...

A G R I
| November 01st - 06th

Spices Up On
Strong Demand !
| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

JEERA

Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
JEERA PLUNGES ON SUBDUED DEMAND Reasons for Movement

J
eera prices are trading in narrow range since past few days due to
weak overseas and domestic demand. Prices may continue to
Weak Demand
trade range bound until demand revives. Rains in the growing
regions in the beginning of the month have led to more moisture in the No Clear Fundamentals
soil. Too much moisture is not good for the sowing of Jeera seed.
Thus, farmers will wait for the sowing of the seed thereby, delaying the
harvesting. This will support prices to strengthen in the medium term.
Prices in the international market of Syrian origin are being offered at
higher rates than Indian origin. This will help prices to find support and

2 strengthen in the medium term (November). In long term (December


onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas
and domestic buyers and sowing progress in the major Jeera growing
areas particularly Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera prices in the intraday
will trade sideways with no clear fundamentals to drive the prices. In the
short term (till October), trend will depend on Jeera price parity of
various origins in international market. In the medium to long term
(December onwards) prices are likely to take cues from sowing
progress in India and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers.
Agri Report

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 14170
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R2 13590
R1 13225
PP 13010
S1 12645
Figure: 1 Jeera

S2 12430
S3 11850

Market Overview Strategy


Last week Jeera did not sustained at Jeera is in a consolidation phase
higher levels and we saw good and one should use the strategy of
selling coming at higher levels for selling on higher levels. If in the
most part of the week and it even coming week Jeera sustains below
closed near to its weekly low. For the the level of 12500 then we can
next week Jeera has resistance at expect a level of 12250, and if it
13400 and support at 12500. sustains above 13400 we can see
the level of 13750.
| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

GUARSEED

Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
GUAR GAINS ON FIRM DEMAND Reasons for Movement

G
uar futures traded firm last week due to tight availability of good
quality crop amidst good demand for Guar and Guar by products.
Despite increased arrivals, prices will not decline immediately as Lower level buying
the quality of the new crop is still an issue in the physical markets. Also, Poor quality of crop
Guar production which was estimated at around 150 lakh bags is now
expected to be lower by 12-15%. Still, the 125-127 lakh bags (approx)
output is much higher than last 2 years. Arrivals which were low around 25-
30 thousand bags during the last week have increased significantly during
the current week and stood at around 40-45 thousand bags. Average daily
arrival stood at 15000 bags during the same period last year. The demand

3 for Guar seed and gum at lower price levels still persist. Export demand,
however, is currently absent. Despite increased arrivals compared to last
week, Guar futures may trade sideways with positive bias in the coming
days due to poor quality of fresh guar crop amidst improved demand for
Guar and its by products. Also, the output which was expected to be much
higher may decline by 12-15% due to off seasonal rainfall which may
damage the crop. We expect arrivals to strength after the first week of
November (i.e. after Diwali). Also, the quality crop would arrive by then.
Thus, prices are expected decline after mid November as higher supplies
may dampen the prices. Guar prices may trade in the range of Rs. 1900-
Agri Report

2300 per qtl in the medium term.

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
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R3 2289
R2 2208
R1 2168
PP 2127
S1 2086
Figure: 1 Jeera

S2 2046
S3 1965

Market Overview Strategy


Last week Guar seed was in a tight For next week in Guar seed traders
range and it neither sustained at should go for buying on lower level
higher level nor at lower levels. For strategy, if Guar seed sustains
the next week resistance in Guar above the level of 2210 we can see
seed is found at 2210 and support at the level of 2290, and below 2085 it
2085. can touch the level of 2025.
| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

SOYABEAN

Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
SOYBEAN TRADES UP ON INTERNATIONAL DEMAND Reasons for Movement

N
CDEX November Soybean futures closed higher on firm
overseas market. CBOT November Soybean futures ended
Lower production in
higher at $ 12.25/bushels, up 1.25 cents/bushel as compared to overseas market
previous close. CBOT December Soybean meal futures ended higher
Increased arrivals
at $ 336.30/ton, up $0.40/tonne as compared to previous close.
Spread between NCDEX November and December contract is Rs 41.00
against previous day of Rs 35.50 per 100 Kg. For Intraday, Soybean
prices are expected to trade range bound with positive bias due to
lower production estimates of Brazil's Soybean production estimates

4 and better USDA's Soybean exports figures. In the medium term,


Soybean prices are expected to move southwards on account of
increased arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, which is a major producing state
of Soybean and it contributes more than 50% of its total production.
Existing better carry over stock this year as compared to last year are in
favour of bears in the long term.

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots
Agri Report

Script Levels
R3 2349
R2 2287
R1 2248
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PP 2225
S1 2186
Figure: 1 Jeera

S2 2163
S3 2101

Market Overview Strategy


Last week Soybean was not able to Soybean is in a consolidation phase
sustain at higher levels and we saw on charts and one should look for
good selling coming at the later part buying opportunities at lower levels,
of the week and it even closed near to if Soybean sustains above the level
its low. For the next week Soybean of 2255 we can see the level of
has resistance at 2255 and support at 2280, and on the down side if it
2175. sustains below the level of 2175 we
can see Soybean at 2145 level.
| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

CHANA

Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
CHANA TUMBLES ON PROFIT BOOKING Reasons for Movement

C
hana November contract tested a high of Rs. 2413 per qtl,
however, settled range bound towards the end due to profit
Profit booking
booking. Stocks of Chana are depleting day by day in major
centers creating a positive market sentiment in the short term. Farmers High sowing acreage
are left with negligible stocks of Chana as they had liquidated the
stocks on expectations of fall in prices. India's pulses production is
expected to rise by 25-30% during 2010-11 seasons, which is
believed to reduce the country's dependence on imports. Chana,
being a Rabi crop, sowing is progressing well in Maharashtra,

5 Karnataka and AP. Government has set a target of 7.5 million tonnes
output of Chana for 2011. Spread between November and December
contract is at Rs. 35 per qtl as compared to Rs.40 per qtl the previous
day. Chana prices may remain sideways in the intraday. In the short
term, Chana prices may gain by Rs. 70-80 per qtl on the reports of
depleting stocks in the domestic markets and expectation of good
demand from millers. However, November onwards, Chana futures are
expected to remain under pressure on the reports of higher sowing
acreage under Kharif Pulses and expectations rise in acreage under
Rabi Pulses due to increase in MSP.
Agri Report

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 2533
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R2 2468
R1 2435
PP 2403
S1 2370
Figure: 1 Jeera

S2 2338
S3 2273

Market Overview Strategy


Last week for most part of the week Overall trend of Chana is of
Chana was bearish but we saw some consolidation and one should go for
good short covering coming at the buying on lower level strategy in it.
end of the week. For the coming For the coming week if Chana
week Chana has resistance at 2450 sustains above 2450 level we can
and support at 2360. see it at 2500 and below 2360 we
can expect the level of 2320.
| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

Weekly Market Update

Symbol Exch- Expiry Commodity Price Unit Previous Open High Low Close Qty. Net Open Weekly
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest TurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 19-Nov-10 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 13160 13170 13375 12794 12862 31845 -298 11283 38,143.31

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 19-Nov-10 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 19730 19733 21198 19400 21075 72591 1345 8911 130,776.59

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 19-Nov-10 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 12570 12580 13044 12290 12900 24775 330 11875 26,156.86

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 19-Nov-10 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2132 2139 2168 2087 2126 1106510 -6 126690 199,689.00

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-DEC-10 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 4820 4920 5047 4840 4909 35120 112 30285 11,463.83

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 19-Nov-10 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2422 2426 2437 2372 2402 430880 -20 108290 96,840.28

6 SYBEANIDR

SYOREFIDR
NCDEX 19-Nov-10

NCDEX 19-Nov-10
SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2225.5

SOY OIL RS/10KGS


REFINED
531.7
2234

533.9
2264

540.8
2202

529.2
2209

531.5
435680 -16.5

643660 -0.2
104200

97550
86,291.45

247,968.77

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 19-Nov-10 RAPE MUS- RS/20KGS 559.55 561 569.25 559.8 562 335710 2.45 138810 63,749.84
TARD SEED

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-Dec-10 COTTONSEED RS/QUINTAL 1078.5 1083 1087 1043 1045 155300 -33.5 57570 14,343.33
OILCAKE

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 19-Nov-10 GUR RS/40KGS 945.2 947 987.8 943 985 67560 39.8 17190 13,944.27

POTATO NCDEX 18-Mar-11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 577.2 575.1 585 571.4 573.5 24180 -3.7 18225 1,341.55
Agri Report

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 28-Feb-11 KAPAS RS./20KG 738.2 740 750 714 714 23430 -24.2 7732 16.28

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 19-Nov-10 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1266 1268 1268 1246 1247.4 8070 -18.6 20370 2,204.19

MENTHA OIL MCX 30-Nov-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1060.5 1060 1176.3 1058.1 1167.8 42221 125.4 8065 17310524

CARDAMOM MCX 15-Nov-10 CARDAMOM RS/KG 903.2 876 927 868 885.1 5274 -18.1 1546 458985
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| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

Weekly Market Update


EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NCDEX JEERA 12862 -2.26

NCDEX PEPPER 21075 6.82

NCDEX TURMERIC 12900 2.63

NCDEX GUARSEED 2126 -0.28

NCDEX GUARGUM 4909 0.22

NCDEX CHANA 2402 -0.83

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2209 -0.74

7 NCDEX

NCDEX
SOY OIL REFINED

RAPE MUSTARD SEED


531.5

562
-0.04

0.44

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE 1045 -3.11

NCDEX GUR 985 4.21

NCDEX POTATO 573.5 -0.64


Agri Report

NCDEX KAPAS 714 -3.28

NCDEX WHEAT 1247.4 -1.47

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1167.8 10.12

NCDEX CARDAMOM 885.1 -2.00


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Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

MENTHA OIL 30-NOV-10 1167.8 10.32

PEPPER 19-NOV-10 21075 6.82

GUR 19-NOV-10 985 4.21

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

KAPAS 28-FEB-11 714 -3.28

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE 20-DEC-10 1045 -3.11

JEERA 19-NOV-10 12862 -2.26


| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA 14172.33 13591.33 13226.67 13010.33 12645.67 12429.33 11848.33

TURMERIC 14252.67 13498.67 13199.33 12744.67 12445.33 11990.67 11236.67

PEPPER 24153.67 22355.67 21715.33 20557.67 19917.33 18759.67 16961.67

SOYABEAN 2349.00 2287.00 2248.00 2225.00 2186.00 2163.00 2101.00

GUARGUM 5353.67 5146.67 5039.33 4939.67 4832.33 4732.67 4525.67

8 GUARSEED

CHANA
2289.00

2533.67
2208.00

2468.67
2167.00

2435.33
2127.00

2403.67
2086.00

2370.33
2046.00

2338.67
1965.00

2273.67

MUSTARD SEED 582.58 573.13 567.57 563.68 558.12 554.23 544.78

KAPAS 798.00 762.00 738.00 726.00 702.00 690.00 654.00


Agri Report

GUR 1061.53 1016.73 1000.87 971.93 956.07 927.13 882.33

CARDAMOM 1011.37 952.37 918.73 893.37 859.73 834.37 775.37

REFINED SOYA OIL 557.03 545.43 538.47 533.83 526.87 522.23 510.63

COTTON SEED 1146.33 1102.33 1073.67 1058.33 1029.67 1014.33 970.33


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OIL CAKE

POTATO 603.83 590.23 581.87 576.63 568.27 563.03 549.43

MENTHA OIL 1370.47 1252.27 1210.03 1134.07 1091.83 1015.87 897.67


| November Weekly Reports
01st - 06th AGRI

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