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Notícias de primeira página e dicas do mundo real: um novo olhar sobre a configuração da agenda pela mídia
Autor (es): Lutz Erbring, Edie N. Goldenberg e Arthur H. Miller
Fonte: American Journal of Political Science, vol. 24, No. 1 (fevereiro de 1980), pp. 16-49
Publicado por: Associação de Ciência Política do Centro-Oeste
URL estável: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2110923 .
Acessado: 19/07/2014 05:27
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31/03/2019 Notícias de primeira página e dicas do mundo real: um novo olhar sobre a configuração da agenda pela mídia
Página 2
Pesquisa sobre a agenda O papel da mídia noticiosa tem sido freqüentemente guiado por
uma concepção bastante estreita de como o conteúdo de mídia afeta os membros do público. Em
em particular, dependência de uma "imagem-espelho"
modelo de efeitos de mídia, e um foco em "o
agenda "como uma classificação geral das questões, não esclareceu muito
o problema público em relação à atenção variada da mídia. Este estudo introduz um
efeitos-efeitos
modelo
" que trata de questõessensibilidades
específicas da audiência
como moduladores, e
a cobertura de notícias como um estímulo acionador, do impacto da mídia na relevância da questão, questão por questão.
Uma análise do "problema nacional mais importante" menciona o National
Estudo Eleitoral, acrescido de dados na primeira
conteúdo
páginanos jornais lidos por
respondentese nas condições do "mundo real" nas respostas
COMUNIDADES,
dos entrevistados
fornece
apoio empírico considerável para o contingente-dependente modelo de efeitos.
Além disso, a difusão secundária da saliência do problema através de redes de informação informal
comunicação socialé mostrado para, eventualmente, anular o impacto inicial da mídia noticiosa. Nosso
descobertas
ressaltam a necessidade de pesquisas sobre a agenda
concentrar-se nos dois
poral e a dimensão social do impacto da mídia.
Introdução
A pesquisa sobre a influência política dos meios de comunicação tem tradição
empregam paradigmas que descrevem a mudança de atitude em resposta a
"comunicação persuasiva" (Klapper, 1960; Pool et al., 1973; também
Kraus e Davis, 1976). A preocupação tradicional com o interesse do público
atitudes em relação a questões e com suas preferências políticas, no entanto, tem
gradualmente temperada pela percepção de que as questões políticas devem
vêm salientes antes que possam ser objeto de atitudes, sejam elas favoráveis
ou desfavorável.1 "Definição da agenda" refere-se ao processo pelo qual
Página 3
CONFIGURAÇÃO
Pela
DAmídia
AGENDA 17
Página 4
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CONFIGURAÇÃO
Pela
DAmídia
AGENDA 19
Página 6
Página 7
CONFIGURAÇÃO
Pela
DAmídia
AGENDA 21
mais dos respondentes da pesquisa de 1974, todos os artigos de primeira página (cerca de 8.900)
foram codificados manualmente para o conteúdo do problema e mesclados com os dados da pesquisa
combinando cada respondente com informação de conteúdo do particular
papel que ele leu.4 Em segundo lugar, dados contextuais sobre o desemprego local
taxas de criminalidade e criminalidade em 1972 e 1974 também foram reunidas para a pesquisa
sites e fundiu-se com a pesquisa e os dados de mídia no nível do
respondentes iduais.5 A ligação destes conjuntos de dados permitiu a análise conjunta
de pesquisa, conteúdo de mídia e variáveis contextuais que nosso conteúdo
hipóteses exigidas.
Enquanto nossos dados compartilham os problemas de projeto de cortes transversais anteriores
estudos, eles também nos permitem compensar essas fraquezas potenciais
de várias maneiras importantes. Nossos dados: (1) são de âmbito nacional, a fim de
para garantir a máxima variação dentro dos limites de um desenho transversal;
(2) incluir medidas de conteúdo de mídia real, a fim de evitar a imputação
efeitos ao mero fato de exposição na mídia; (3) incluem medidas do mundo real
para algumas questões-chave, a fim de controlar as condições locais relevantes;
e (4) vincular conteúdo de mídia, condições do mundo real e percepção de saliência.
no nível individual, a fim de contornar as armadilhas da agregação de
em populações heterogêneas.
Dadas essas oportunidades únicas, esperamos trazer à tona
processos e condições, ao invés de meramente a existência, da agenda-set-
efeitos de Começaremos com um breve exame de nossos dados em termos
de imagem espelho suposições e, em seguida, voltar-se para o contingente-audiência
ef
modelo de defeitos que oferecemos como uma especificação mais completa e precisa de
efeitos da mídia no processo de agendamento.
Agenda-configuração pela mídia: efeitos de imagem de espelho
O gráfico da Figura I mostra as distribuições de notícias de primeira página
Página 8
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22
FIGURA 1
251 0--50,00
0 ~~~~~~~~~~~ z
012
ma AA 25. 0 ic
SE0
z
0. * 0 6YTUTN
GVY T RUST
--EU L - .. IIL
CRINETA DE NFLRÃO
.0 Z
FALTAS
GVT PONER UNEAPLOYNT CORRIDA
PROBLEMAS
Página 9
CONFIGURAÇÃO
Pela
DAmídia
AGENDA 23
cobertura de papel vs. respostas da pesquisa para sete dos "mais importantes
problemas enfrentados por este país "em 1974, como se pode ver no espelho
imagem perspectiva.6 É óbvio que, como uma imagem espelhada, o gráfico deixa
algo a desejar. Pode-se discernir, na melhor das hipóteses, duas imagens espelhadas
considerando as partes esquerda e direita do gráfico separadamente - "
“questões básicas” (confiança do governo, poder do governo) como
questões "reais" (inflação, desemprego, crime, relações raciais, escassez).
Na verdade, como apontado anteriormente, há uma variedade de razões pelas quais a
tributos na Figura 1 podem, ou não, satisfazer a expectativa de um
imagem espelhada. Em qualquer caso, é claro que a suposição da imagem especular
ficaria desacreditado se, para cada edição, os leitores de notícias de alta ênfase
artigos não eram mais propensos a mencioná-lo do que os leitores de baixa ênfase
jornais. Para examinar essa possibilidade, nos voltamos para dados em nível individual.
Emissão por questão, a Tabela 1 documenta que apenas três dos sete principais
itens de agenda de 1974 mostram qualquer traço de impacto de mídia em tudo. Apenas para
crime é a correlação entre a cobertura do jornal (contagens da história) e
saliência de audiência (problema menciona) até mesmo estatisticamente significante; para
o desemprego é quase isso. Finalmente, se esticarmos a definição de mídia
6 Os entrevistados da pesquisa foram questionados sobre a questão aberta: "O que você acha
são os problemas mais importantes que este país enfrenta? ", seguidos pela nova sondagem,
"Algo mais?" Suas respostas foram codificadas pela equipe do estudo para até três probabilidades.
referências, e estas foram agrupadas para fins de análise de acordo com as
sete áreas de emissão designadas, quando aplicável. Nossa medida de relevância foi
se uma referência à questão específica foi ou não incluída entre as três mais
menções importantes ao problema.
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principais
Cada primeira
referências
notícia
página
deusando
problemas,
em todas
as mesmas
as dez edições
regras dedecodificação
todos os 94aplicadas
jornais foi
aosmarcada
"mais para
problema importante "respostas na pesquisa. Estas referências de problemas
foram agrupados
de acordo com as mesmas sete áreas problemáticas (além de histórias de crime locais como uma categoria separada
do crime como questão nacional), somando os dez dias da amostra para cada jornal
por, e adicionado ao registro de dados de cada leitor, produzindo a seguintedodistribuição
contagens de histórias (ponderadas pelos leitores):
Govt Govt
Inflação Unempl / Rec Faltas Crime Race Power Trust
Significar 4,64 3,05 0,70 1,28 1,10 5,40 8,66
Alcance 0-30 0-15 0-6 0-9 0-13 0-28 0-19
SD 5,29 2,83 1,16 1,64 2,20 5,34 4,24
Página 10
TABELA 1
Correlações de Saliência do Problema com Cobertura do Problema (Efeitos de Conteúdo)
e Notícias Atenção (Efeitos de Exposição) a
Todas as análises relatadas neste artigo são apenas para leitores de jornais White. Para o entrevistado negro
conteúdo de jornal e saliência de emissão são insignificantes e negativo, exceto para questões raciais: Inflação, -.04
cessão, -13; Escassez, -16; Crime, -17; Relações raciais, 48 * Governo Potência, -0,4; GovernmentT
o número de leitores de jornais negros na amostra não foi suficiente para permitir uma análise separada.
b Correlações simples entre as menções de problemas e as específicas história conta no jornal do entrevistado.
c Histórias de jornais sobre o crime local: .03.
d Relação de correlação (Etas) baseada em três níveis de exposição: freqüentemente / às vezes / raramente ou nunca r
e Relacionamentos não monótonas com quantidade de atenção.
f Múltiplas correlações para regressão de menções de problemas em contagens de histórias e variáveis dummy para exp
* p <.1.
** P <0,01.
Página 11
CONFIGURAÇÃO
Pela
DAmídia
AGENDA 25
8 Tem sido demonstrado que as pessoas idosas e as mulheres se sentem especialmente ameaçadas
crime; cf. Skogan (1976).
9 Totalmente dois doterços
transversal variância nas taxas de criminalidade está associada
distinções urbanas versuserurais, tanto quanto um quinto da variação no desemprego
As taxas de emprego estão associadas a diferenças O mesmo regionais.
estrutural padrão, embora
consideravelmente silenciado, emerge de uma análise de variância das preocupações dos entrevistados;
ainda uma análise paralela da primeira cobertura página
nos jornais revela muito maior
rácios de correlação (etas) por região do que por localização urbana versus rural, não só
emprego mas também para o crime e todas as outras questões consideradas:
Página 12
MESA 2
Fontes de Saliência de Edição: Impacto da Exposição de Notícias, Jornal
Conteúdo, Contexto do Mundo Real e Características Individuais
Padronizado
Regressão
Coeficientes
Desemprego / recessão
Exposição de jornais (Notícias Nacionais): Medium .lO **
Alto .15 **
Jornal Contenta 0,06 *
Contextb mundo real .14 * *
Membro da União na Família 0,006
Desemprego na Família .01
(R2) (0,037)
Crime
Exposição de jornais (notícias locais): média .03
Alto -.02
Jornal Contenta 12 **
Contexto do Mundo Real .09 **
Sexo 0,04
Era 0,006
(R2) (.030)
Confiança do Governo
Exposição de jornais (Notícias Nacionais): Medium 0,05 *
Alto .0 * '
Jornal Contenta -.02
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Segue Assuntos
Identificação Públicos
partidária (republicana) 0,05
-.04
Força do Partisanship -.10
(R2) (0,018)
Página 13
Desemprego Crime
Local Condi- Problem Newspaper Local Problema Jornal
(1974) Menções Histórias (1974) Menções Histórias
Região 436 .152 , 228 0,310 .125 .343 [.1081 *
Urbano vs.
Rural .181 0,092 .115 .810 .144 .154 [.185] *
[* crime local]
Além disso, ao contrário da relevância do público, a cobertura do jornal parece totalmente não relacionada
transversal padrões de incidência do desemprego no mundo ou crime
real (r - .03).
Esses padrões sugerem que as preocupações do público refletem o estado do ambiente local.
com mais fiabilidade do que os seus jornais: os leitores aparentemente não subscrevem
(distintamenteregionais) problematizam suas preocupações (predominantemente
local) newspa-
pers. Deve-se notar, no entanto, que, em vista da questão nacional, foco de nossa
estudo, correspondência doscom respondentes
conteúdo de jornal foi baseado em nacional e não
do que o conteúdo do jornal local para todos os entrevistados que lêem um jornal nacional em
além de um jornal local.
10 Enquanto o governo confiança tinha sido uma questão saliente desde Watergate, tinha acabado
recebeu um novo impulso da renúncia de Nixon e do perdão de Ford, menos de três
meses antes da entrevista; similarmente, a ameaça de recessão ea incidência de
demissões estavam apenas começando a capturar os medos dos americanos como uma nova questão e
deslocar a inflação
como o problema número um (uma mudança de posição finalmente reconhecida
pela administração no início de 1975). Escassez, também uma questão importante e de maior
cent vintage na época do que a inflação,
pode ter dado origem a exposição comparável
efeitos não eram que eles eram uma parte tão importante da experiência imediata de todos
que pode ter havido pouco espaço para a mídia acrescentar algo à relevância pública.
Relações raciais e governo o poder, em contraste, era um problema decadente na época.
Página 14
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eignorando
atender aouinformação
esquecendoque elesque
aquilo antecipam seráé relevante,
não é. Não casualmente
uma questão de evitar
distorcendo as mensagens dissonantes, como no conteúdo persuasivo, mas simplesmente
distribuir rotineiramente um orçamento de atenção limitada.
Como os indivíduos obviamente diferem em suas sensibilidades e preocupações
cupações, não esperamos o impacto da cobertura de questões pela mídia
ocorrer em uma varredura geral em toda a população. Isso não
significa, claro, que as pessoas insistirão em ver apenas como altamente salientes
problemas que atingem perto de casa, independentemente do que lêem, ouvem,
ou experiência; mas significa que eles estarão razoavelmente sintonizados com
certas mensagens e bastante alheio aos outros. Mesmo as pessoas que provavelmente serão
laid off in times of economic downturn may well acknowledge the salience
of other issues in times of economic boom. As they pick up messages of
impending employment trouble, however, they may be expected to re-
focus their concerns more promptly than others whose jobs are secure.
Thus, certain individual and group characteristics are likely to act as con-
tingent conditions of media impact (though perhaps not of real-world
impact). The underlying substantive principle is one of interaction be-
tween issue content in the media and issue sensitivity among the audience.
Respecifying the model in audience-contingent terms also eases the
methodological problems of using cross-sectional data to extract para-
metric information about a process operating through time. Thus, inter-
pretation must rely heavily on the assumption that the results of our anal-
yses provide, in effect, snapshots capturing different instants of an on-
going process. As an issue gains momentum in a community, each added
news item dealing with it will presumably reach an additional portion
of the audience and will focus or sustain an additional measure of atten-
tion among those reached-initially among the segments most sensitive
to the particular issue, and gradually among other segments of the public
também. But many issues stay on the agenda for quite some time, while
issue salience can only grow so far. Thus, at some point, the pool of un-
tapped potential concern is bound to approach exhaustion, and the im-
pact-per-additional-story must gradually decline. Even then, differential
levels of audience concern may still reflect individual differencesin amount
of total news exposure (assuming that a major change in issue coverage
Página 15
AGENDA-SETTING
BY THE MEDIA 29
had occurred uniformly across all news sources). With the passage of
time, however, such traces of differential exposure will dissipate also,
either because even those minimally exposed approach saturation, or be-
cause secondary diffusion through informal communication increasingly
overrides direct media impact. As a result, both types of media impact cap-
tured by our cross-sectional analysis, content effects and exposure effects,
may be expected to vary systematically and predictably with the "age" of
the issue and the sensitivity of the audience (see Appendix for further
detail).
These considerations suggest a model of audience-contingent efeitos
o que implica que:
(1) differences in issue coverage by the newspapers (content effects) will
be significant primarily for people who are sensitive to the particular
issue;
(2) differences in exposure to national news (exposure effects) will be
significant:
(a) for people who are sensitive to the issue if there has been a re-
cent change in amount of coverage;
(b) for people who are not sensitive to the issue if there has been a
"not-so-recent," sustained change in coverage; ou
(c) for no one if there has been no change in coverage;
(3) media impact (both content and exposure effects) will be accent-
uated by exclusive dependence on the news media for information,
but diluted by involvement in interpersonal communication flows;
e
(4) real-world context effects hould be direct rather than mediated and
hence less contingent on audience sensitivity.
The occurrence of these patterns in our data, therefore, will be of
special interest for purposes of analysis. The three issues included in our
study permit us to take advantage of a natural experiment in this regard,
since they were, in October 1974, "recent" (unemployment/recession),
"not-so-recent" (government rust), and "long-standing" (crime) subjects
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for media thus
segments coverage."1
serve as The patterns of
the principal effects across
evidence issues
by which and audience
to assess the valid-
ity of the overall model, which in turn will permit the resulting parameter
1" See notes 9 and 10 above for a summary of structural and historical back-
ground conditions. With respect to the dynamics of public opinion, Stone (1975)
concluded that four months is the critical period for cumulative media effects, and
Erbring (1975) presented dynamic models for the impact of media-reported político
events with estimated mean lags ranging from two to eight months.
Página 16
12 Our ability to estimate media impact ultimately depends on the ratio of signal
to noise in two respects: 1) the ratio of cross-newspaper variance in issue coverage
relative to cross-sectional variance in issue salience due to other sources, and 2) the
ratio of observed (measured, sampled) to true (systematic, reliable) cross-newspaper
variance in issue emphasis.
13 The formal specification of our model accommodates the fact that the response
variable (problem mentions) is dichotomous. Thus, it can be conveniently modelado
in terms of a (conditional) response probability, treated as a function of the indepen-
dent variables of interest (news stories, exposure levels, real-world conditions, indi-
vidual characteristics):
pi = prob[yi = 1] = F(x'b) [i = 1, ., N]
Onde:
yi is the response of the ith individual (0 or 1);
x'i is a 1 X k vector of scores on the independent variables (including a constant
term) for the ith individual;
b is a kX 1 vector of parameters (coefficients) for the independent variables.
Since specifying F as a linear probability function leads to some rather undesirable
properties (specifically, its parameters are sample-specific and its estimates are insen-
sitive to nonadditivity in the multivariatecase), the response model is more appro-
priately specified by a logistic function:
Página 17
AGENDA-SETTING
BY THE MEDIA 31
Página 18
TABELA 3
Models of Issue Salience: a Impact of News Exposure, Newspaper Content,
and Real-World Context Modulated by Issue Sensitivity
Exposure to
National News
Newspaper Real-Worl
Constante Alguns Freqüente Contentb Contextc
Unemployment/Recession
Total -1.069**d .295* .433** .023* .050**
Union Member (Yes) -1.638** 1.221** .747* .086** .039*
in Family (No) - .953** .041 .366** , 007 .062**
Unemployment (Yes) -1.697** .853* .661* .092* .074*
in Family (No) - .956** .165 .369** 0,015 .046**
Crime
Total -1.338** .127 , 033 .093** .375**
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Página 19
Página 20
34
FIGURA 2
Response Probabilities for "Unemployment/Recession," "Crime,"
and "Government Trust" Mentions, as a Function of Newspaper
Content/News Exposure (top) and Real-World Context (bottom)
(from logit estimates in Table 3)
.0.00NEWS
5.00MEDIA
lL0.oNWSPPER STORYQ0
15:00 20.00 NEWS
5.00MEDIR:
COL1NT N PPER STORY COUNT
10,00 15:00 20.00
ISSUEs CRIME
tTOTAL SAMPLE Eu ISSUEt UNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
( TOTAL SAMLE Eu W 0 .as
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-5- . W ..
------------------ mmw
lDO0 15:00- WE
00
1X
Página 21
35
FIGURA 3
Response Probabilities for "Unemployment/Recession" Mentions,
as a Function of Newspaper Coverage, Real-World Conditions,
and News Exposure, by Issue Sensitivity (from logit estimates in Table 3)
0.ooNEWS
5.00MEDIR:
10,00STORY
NEWSPAER
15:00CUNT
20.00 NEWS MEDIR:
5.0W 10,00NEMAPER STORY COUNT
15:00 20.00
ISSUE:
UNIONUNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
FfMILY IW
(SSUE: UNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
NON-UNION
FAMILY ) |E S
z z
LL U--W--BB--S--- IL
0J -
-10.00 -5.00 0,00 5.00 10,00 -10.00 -5.00 0,00 5.00cei, 10,00
RERL WORLD: 7 UNEMPLOYMENT
CHGE& C_ RERL WORLD:
T X UNEMPLOYMENT
CHGE&
0c NEWS 5.00MEDIR:
10,00STORY
NEWSPAPER20.00 .Q.00NEWS
15:00COUNT 5.00MEDIR, STORY
NEWSPRPER
COUNT
10,00 15:00' 20.00
- * ,NF~'If! N
EL NEW"` CY@7`, EO
REr-ESS ISSUE: UNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
.; fi~ ( NO-UNEMPLOYMENT
S' MP
2v r | 'D FRMILY DrO
z z
o5 0e _
? -- d
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Página 22
36
FIGURA 4
Response Probabilities for "Crime" Mentions, as a Function of Newspaper
Coverage, Real-World Conditions, and News Exposure,
by Issue Sensitivity (from logit estimates in Table 3)
Z W .
z z
'I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L
L; . //~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L
~// Fl
b.00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 1,00REAL 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20
REAL WORLD: VIOLENT CRIMES/1000b WORLD: VIOLENT CRIMES/1000I ,
Q.00NEWS
5.00MEDIR:
10,00STORY
NEWSPAPER
15:00CUT2000
0 .0O NEWS
5.00MEDIA:
10,00NEWSRPR STORY COLMT
15:00 20.00
ISSUE: CRIME
AGE >60 ) __'_'_ ISSUEt
( -10 CRIME
6 )0 |___
zz
LLl
CL ,_ 19 s- aaa
(LOWORLD:
.?? RERL (L10 VIOLENT
015CHIMES/10003e 0,05 0.t0
o a CL20 1,0 R,EAL .5 O.'20
WORLD: VIlEN CIMES/100--
Página 23
37
FIGURE 5
Response Probabilities for "Government Trust" Mentions, as a
Function of Newspaper Coverage and News Exposure, by Issue Sensitivity
(from logit estimates in Table 3)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~----
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=I x W1 ------ ------- .
'&0O 5,00 ,lQo 15,00 20,80 l0O 5,00 100 15:00 20,00
I:: 5~~~~~~
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our contingent effects model accounts for two to five times more variance
in issue salience among audiences pre-sensitized to a specific issue than
among less sensitive audiences.
Of primary interest, however, are not the proportions of variance
(which are bound to be modest in any case), but the patterns of effects as
revealed by the estimated coefficients in the models. Thus, newspaper con-
tent has great impact on the audience segments one would expect to be
sensitive to the issues of crime and unemployment, and almost none on
the rest of the audience. For people with a union membership or with
recent unemployment in their family, the salience of unemployment in-
creases dramatically with the number of unemployment/recession stories
carried on the front page of their paper, while for people over 60 or for
women, the salience of crime increases even more impressively with the
number of front page stories dealing with crime as an issue. In both cases,
there are virtually no such content effects for audiences not sensitive to
the particular issue. Evidently, differences in issue emphasis by the media
do have an impact on issue salience after all-if only among certain sub-
sets of readers.'6
By contrast, the impact of the real-world environment, in the form of
local crime or unemployment rates, is not systematically related to, or
contingent on, audience sensitivity, though it remains statistically signifi-
cant throughout. As a result, it becomes the only effective determinant of
issue salience where there arc no specific sensitizing factors. For govern-
ment trust, of course, no objective reality supplements or competes with
media coverage. It is, in other words, a genuine media issue-not in the
sense that the news media created it, but that it could never have achieved
as a necessary condition of media impact and the prin-
16 Issue-specific sensibilidade
ciple of interaction between media content and audience sensitivityare not limited to
para
the three issues we have examined in detail. Thus, even the salience of inflation,
which the mirror-image model showed no media impact at all, is subject to both con-
tent and exposure effects among people assumed to be especially sensitive to the issue
-those in the middle income groups (between $8,000 and $15,000 per year)-but not
among people with incomes either above or below that range. Finally, while the sub-
sample of Black newspaper readers was too small to permit meaningful analyses in
general, the correlations reported earlier (see note a of Table 1 above) are perhaps
the most dramatic evidence of audience-contingent efeitos. The impact of media con-
tent on the salience of race relations (and race relations only) is substantial among
Blacks (and only among Blacks), whose sensitivity to this issue is obvious. Deveria
be noted that these effects do not imply that Black respondentsattribute greater sali-
ence to the racial issue or that middle-incomerespondentes
attribute greater salience to
the issue of inflation, but rather that these audiences are more responsive to media
content dealing with the particular issue. Infelizmente,we do not have suitable indi-
cators of issue sensitivityfor some of the other issues included in our data.
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Página 25
agenda status without them. It is all the more striking, then, to note that
the effects of issue content do not stand out particularly clearly: differ-
ences in the number of news stories bearing on trust in government have
no discernible impact on salience, with or without the help of audience
sensibilidade. This result will become clear presently.
The central role of audience sensitivity is further underscored by
the coefficient patterns associated with exposure effects. For high-sensi-
tivity audiences, the salience of unemployment increases substantially with
news exposure (regardless of issue content), while exposure has little ef-
fect on other groups. Moreover, this increase is almost entirely associated
with the threshold between minimum and medium exposure levels.'7 Thus,
for sensitized audiences even moderate attention is sufficient to ensure the
full impact of background coverage. Unsensitized audiences, by contrast,
are not only unresponsive to specific issue coverage: the persistent (if
small) difference between medium and high exposure levels suggests that
they are also rather slow to absorb indirect issue coverage implicit in
general news exposure.
While exposure has no systematic effect on the salience of crime, the
results for government trust reveal exposure effects that are associated
with audiences of low rather than high sensitivity, at least as reflected
by measures of political interest and partisanship. Exposure effects have
completely disappeared for those likely to be most sensitive to the issue.
In other words, among issue-sensitive groups, even those with minimal
attention levels have, in this instance, caught up with more attentive in-
dividuals; they have, in fact, reached saturation level (probably with a
good deal of help from television)-which is why content had no effect for
this issue.'8 Less sensitized groups, however, are still in the process of
absorbing the messages of general news coverage; thus, among Democrats
and individuals with low political interest, issue salience does (still)
depend on individual attention levels.
It is worth noting that, given the structural conditions and contem-
porary status of each of the issues in late 1974, seemingly disparate results
are quite consistent with, and readily interpretable through, the cross-
sectional implications of the process assumed to underlie agenda-setting
(see Appendix). First, the media effects associated with the salience of
unemployment correspond closely to the cross-sectional patterns expected
17 Actually, the impact of general news exposure is somewhat smaller at the
highest exposure levels, though the difference barely reaches statistical significance.
18 Note also the partisan bias in saturation levels associated with party identifica-
tion (the government whose integrity is at issue was, after all, a Republican adminis-
tration).
Página 26
for a new issue. Secondly, the exposure effects found for the salience
of government trust correspond to the cross-sectional patterns char-
acteristic of a continuing issue. However, our data yield no evidence of
content effects in this instance, which implies either that newspapers did
not differ systematically in their coverage of post-Watergate vents and
revelations, or that the amount of coverage outside the respondents' news-
papers (ie, on television) was so intense and uniform as to compensate
for any differences in newspaper emphasis. Our sample data contradict
the first possibility (see footnote 6); the second appears quite plausible,
though beyond the reach of the data at hand.'9 And, finally, for the sali-
ence of crime, the strength of content effects and the absence of exposure
effects correspond to the cross-sectional pattern characteristic of peren-
nial issues when these are associated with systematic differences in news-
paper coverage.
Informal Communication
Thus far the analysis confirms that the effects of agenda-setting by
the news media-specifically by newspapers-are contingent on the audi-
ence's pre-existing issue sensitivities. News about political issues, how-
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ever, does not reach the individual with its implications fully spelt out.
It is one thing to learn, in 1974, about Gerald Ford's WIN program or
his pardon of Richard Nixon, but quite another to determine whether
such news is grounds for concern or for relief; it is one thing to learn of
plans for oil price decontrol or drug law enforcement, but quite another
to decide whether such plans are part of the problem or part of the solu-
Página 27
AGENDA-SETTING
BY THE MEDIA 41
ção. Getting at the meaning of the news involves assessing its implica-
tions for the future, tracing developments from the past, comparing cur-
rent events with previous experience, weighing the credibility of particular
sources, and so forth. It calls, in short, for an interpretation of the news-
not by individual intuition but by "social reality testing." Informal com-
munication with others is essential to help people make sense of news
media content, and thus plays a critical role in shaping public perceptions
of issue salience.
Informal communication has both a social and an individual dimen-
sion. As a social process, it generates a collective definition of the situa-
tion which may strengthen or block the impact of news media content,
depending on the homogeneity of social environments. As a resource
for the individual, it opens an alternative channel of information which
may reinforce or dissipate the impact of news media content, depending on
the similarity of the messages. In any case, the effects, if any, of informal
communication are structured by the particular networks of everyday in-
teraction which constitute an individual's social environment.
Our data provide some fascinating insights into the consequences, if
not the workings, of informal communication. As critics of conventional
survey practices have pointed out, a random sample of respondents con-
veys an atomistic image of society and hence is not particularly amenable
to the pursuit of contextual interaction effects (Barton, 1968; Sheingold,
1973). Thus, we rely here on indirect evidence, comparing respondents
who reported in 1974 that they talked with someone about an important
campaign issue with those who reported they did not.
The results summarized in Table 4, and reproduced graphically in
Figure 6, almost speak for themselves. Where there is informal political
communication, both content effects, associated with current news cov-
erage, and real-world effects, based on local conditions, vanish completely
for unemployment and almost completely for crime. People involved in
active social interaction networks evidently do not depend on formal chan-
nels of communication nor, for that matter, on the limited evidence of
local conditions, to find out what is salient. Conversely, people who do
not talk about political issues with their "neighbors" depend heavily, al-
most exclusively, on media content and local experience; and the impact
of these factors on issue salience is amplified dramatically.
Nothing, however, reveals more pointedly the centrality of informal
communication processes than the different patterns of exposure effects
for "talkers" and "non-talkers." For both unemployment and government
trust, the contrasts far exceed any of the patterns induced by issue sensi-
atividade. At each exposure level, those who talk about politics are much
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Página 28
TABELA 4
Models of Issue Salience:a Impact of News Exposure, Newspaper Content,
and Real-World Context Modulated by Informal Communicationb
Exposure to
National News Newspaper Real-Wor
Constante Alguns Frequent Contentc Context
Unemployment/Recession
Total -1.069* *e .295* .433** .023* .050**
Talked about (Yes) -1.153** .358 .618* .017 .003
Campaign (No) -1.762** .415 .6899 .160* .092**
Crime
Total -1.338** .127 , 033 .093 .375**
Talked about (Yes) -1.085** -.011 -.198 .050 .376*:
Campaign (No) - 1.061** -.144 -.085 -.035 .810**
Government Trust
Total -1.002* * .287* .413** -.007
Talked about (Yes) - .296 -.111 -.149 -.020
Campaign (No) -2.911** 1.215 2.107* .035 -
a White newspaper readers only.
') Only those indicating they had read something about an important national campaign issue in their n
c Number of front-page stories dealing with the respective issue areas in the respondent's newspaper.
d'Change in percentage of local unemployment from 1972 to 1974. Local incidence of violent crime
in 1974.
e Entries are "normalized" logit coefficients (scaled by reciprocal square root of logistic variance, 7r2
MLE method; significance based on asymptotic standard errors and normal distribution; explained "varian
likelihood function (relative to H,,: p[y = 1] - constant).
: < .1. -* *n < .0 1.
Página 29
43
FIGURE 6
Response Probabilities for "Unemployment/Recession," "Crime," and
"Government Trust" Mentions, as a Function of Newspaper Coverage,
Real-World Conditions, and News Exposure, by Informal Political
Communication (from logit estimates in Table 4)
NEWS
5.00MEDIA:
10,00STORY
NEWSPAER
15:00COUNT
20.00 NEWS
5.00MEDIA: NEWPAPER
10,00STORY
15:00COUNT
20.00
ISSUEt UNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
TALK ABOUT
CRAIGN1 | ISSUEs UNEMPLOYMENT/RECESS
NO TALK ABOUT CAMAIGN 1 _____
|
_____
/ ,,
;10:0 ; 1Z20owo
.b 0w0 -10.00 -5.00 o 50 00
te~~~~~~~~
WN
p>0 5w 1,0 .00
150 00 10,00
o 50 ao
-
z (TfLK BorrCAPIGN
1I ( NO TALK 1I ROTCAMPAIGN K_-
E ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~E
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____________ -00REL
fl5/-- :LD
REAL WORLD:IS/100
VIOLENT
0INELENT
CHE REAL WORLD: CHGE
__ __ ______ ___
01.00 0,00 0,00 15 0,00 00
t JOS 0,00 15 0,0
Página 30
more concerned with unemployment than those who don't. Thus, informal
communication builds upon, and adds to, the baseline established by dif-
ferential exposure to the news media. People who don't talk with their
peers also lag behind in their concern about government rust, while still
revealing the impact of differential news media exposure, apparently un-
perturbed by information flow from their social environment. Such ex-
posure effects disappear, however, for people who do talk about politics:
their probability of issue mentions is invariant across exposure levels, just
as with audience sensitivity in this issue area-but now at a record level of
26 percent salience. And finally, for crime, social communication was not
expected to, and did not, add to the effect of news exposure or issue content
(it was not a "new" issue). There is evidence, however, that, by talking
to others, respondents may broaden their perspective beyond the real-
world context of their particular locality. A similar attenuation of the ef-
fects of local context, among "talkers," for the salience of unemployment
lends further support to this inference.
Taken together, these results are again consistent with expectations
based on an audience-effects model, and they throw additional light on the
way in which the news media affect the salience of issues on and, ulti-
mately, the composition of, the political agenda. Primary media coverage
of a new issue clearly provides the initial impetus for a more pervasive
secondary diffusion based on informal communication-as shown in the
case of unemployment by the overall boost in salience, the early dilution
of content impact, and the temporary persistence of exposure differences.
With the passage of time, secondary diffusion increasingly dominates the
outcome and erases any remaining effects of differential media exposure-
salience rapidly approaches its saturation level-as shown in the case of
government trust, where the message has spread equally among all re-
spondents involved in informal political communication. In both these
issue areas there can be no question of which way the wind blows in the
social networks that produce these effects: informal communication
clearly increases issue salience, for unemployment and goverlnment trust
alike-but not for a long-standing issue such as crime.
Conclusion: From Statistical Effects to Causal Mechanisms
At any given time, citizens are concerned with a variety of national
political issues. Together these may be taken to represent a nation's poli-
tical agenda. Typically, they are also the issues which receive substantial
attention from the news media. Of course, different individuals will con-
sider some of the issues more salient than others, and different news
sources will devote more coverage to some issues than to others.
Página 31
45
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AGENDA-SETTING BY THE MEDIA
People's concerns spring from a diversity of sources, one of which
may well be the news media. Moreover, the perceived salience of issues
on the political agenda, indeed the very composition of the national
agenda, is subject to change, and issue coverage by the news media may
well contribute -to these changes. Yet it would be unwarranted to assume
that any increase or decrease in media coverage invariably produces a cor-
responding increase or decrease in individual concerns. Hence "media ef-
fects," defined as a mirror-image relation between the agenda of a news
source and the agenda of its audience, can reveal nothing about the
processes underlying agenda-setting even if such effects were statistically
demonstrable (which, at the individual level, they are not).
We propose instead a model of "audience effects," which assumes
that media coverage interacts with the audience's pre-existing sensitivities
to produce changes in issue concerns. Media effects are contingent on
issue-specific audience characteristics; or, in other words, issue coverage
in the media serves as a trigger stimulus to salience perceptions. Only thus
are the audience's latent concerns activated as perceptions of issue salience.
An audience-contingent effects model of media impact is not only
plausible in theoretical terms; it also performs moderately well statistic-
ally, within the limitations of a cross-sectional design. Indeed, it is sur-
prising that cross-sectional data can discriminate alternative response mod-
els at all. These models describe processes which occur over time and thus
would be more appropriately investigated with longitudinal designs. Com
issue sensitivity as a contingent condition our model accounts for up to 13
percent of cross-sectional variance in issue salience (three percent for the
issue of government rust, which lacks the element of direct experience).
This result compares favorably with the baseline of about three percent
(one percent for government trust) for the mirror-image model based on
newspaper content, news exposure, and real-world context. And it stands
in sharp contrast to the additive impact of individual sensitivity variables,
which, for all practical purposes, was zero. Moreover, audience sensitivity
contributes only to media impact; it does not affect the more immediate
impact of real-world experience.
The most striking modulation effects, however, are associated with
informal communication about politics. To the extent that citizens are in-
tegrated into everyday networks of social interaction, as measured by re-
ports of political conversation with others, the effects of specific media
content and real-world context disappear. Conversely, among people who
are not effectively embedded in informal communication networks, per-
ceptions of issue salience become doubly dependent on formal communi-
cation channels and on alternative sources of information in their primary
Página 32
Página 33
47
FIGURA 7
Relação between Longitudinaland Cross-SectionalPadrões do
Media Impact, for Two Newspapers (A,B), Three Exposure Levels
(1,2,3), and Two Levels of Sensitivity (+,-)
Stimulus level
A: high A+2 A+l A+l A+2 A+l
B: low A+I
Exposure level A-II A+
AlI +
+ +
+
1: high
2. medium A+3 A+3
3. low A+2
Sensibilidade tv tX;~1 3 ~~~~~~~~A
{
A -I A-1
+: high Clsriv tz5 AI A- 1
-2
para
z~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
z 3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0
B-
Page 34
typical audience response paths over time for two newspapers whose coverage of an
issue, beginning at tog is high (paper A) or low (paper B). The readers of each paper,
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além
2), ordisso, may be
low (group 3)exposed
levels oftoattention.
its issue And,
coverage at high
finally, both(group 1), medium
audiences (group
may include
segments which are particularly sensitive to the issue (group +) and others which
are not (group -). Thus, there are four families of response curves, all based on the
samec response model and differing only by the values (1,2,3) of a news exposure
parameter, the values (+,-) of an issue sensitivity parameter, and the levels (A,B)
of actual issue coverage. The specificationof the generating process is given by:
AYt = bxt - cyti
where: x = [XA, XB], b = [b+, b], and c = [cl, C2, c;J.
The plots at the top of Figure 7 each represent a slice through the bundle of re-
sponse curves, at tl, t2, and t3. "Content effects,' defined by vertical differences be-
tween newspapers (AB) at a given exposure level, are mapped into the right half of
each cross-section plot (shown for exposure levels 1 and 3 only) and connected by
straight lines. "Exposure effects," defined by vertical differences between exposure
levels (1-2 and 2-3) for a given newspaper, are mapped into the left half of each
cross-section plot (shown for paper A only) and connected by line segments. In each
case, the upper (solid) curves refer to issue-sensitive audiences, the lower (broken)
curves to nonsensitive audiences. The cross-section plots at the top of the graph thus
summarize the particular patterns of sensitivity, content, and exposure effects which
would be observed if the data at hand actually represented medidas taken at t1,
or t2, or t3. "Time," of course, always refers to the time period (since to) for which
the "current" level of issue coverage (A,B) has been sustained in each instance.
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